on a federal retirement program that elicited some interesting
comments. It was clear to me that there is already a negative bias
toward the baby boomers. There is an understanding out there that the
boomers are going to be sucking up a great deal of resources in the next
decade or so. Some comments:
We have witnessed the unprecedented lack of fiscal responsibility from the majority "Baby Boomer" voter base.
We've met the enemy, and it is the emerging 'ruling class' pensioners of the Baby Boomer generation.
...get ready for AGE WARFARE
As if on cue, the Congressional Budget Office has thrown out some
numbers to fire up this emotive issue. The CBO report confirmed (to me)
that age warfare is in our future.
CBO looked at all of the scenarios regarding Social Security. They ran a
total of 500 simulations that reflect the different variables of the
puzzle. The analysis assumed that there would be no changes in current
law on SS. The objective of the exercise was to quantify the
probabilities of which generation would most likely not get the benefits
they were (A) paying for, (B) entitled to and (C) expecting.
The results of the CBO analysis is that there is societal/economic
trouble in front of us on this issue. It should come as no surprise to
readers that if you are young, you have a problem. The CBO report
defines which generation(s) will be hurt and by how much. I found their
conclusions to be very troubling.
If you were born in the 1940’s the probability that you will receive
100% of your scheduled benefits is nearly 100%. The people in this age
group will die before SS is forced to make cuts in scheduled benefits.
If you were born in the Sixties things still do not look so bad.
Depending on how long you will live the odds (76+%) are pretty good that
you will get all of your scheduled benefits. However, if you were born
in the Eighties you have a problem. The numbers fall off a cliff if you
are between 30 and 40 years old today. In only 13% of the possible
scenarios you will get what you are currently expecting from SS. If you
were born after 1990 you simply have no statistical chance of getting
what you are paying for. The full CBO report can be found here. This (hard to read) chart is from that report.
Sometime next year the issue of SS will have to come up. It will be
central to the recommendations from the toothless and worthless Fiscal
Commission. The results of that review and the recommendations that will
be made are already know. Payroll taxes will have to rise for both
employers and employees, the age for eligibility will raised for those
under 55 and benefits for that same group will have to reduced. If those
steps are taken the promised benefits to the baby boomers (60+) can be
met.
That can’t possibly work. How can we convince a 30-40 year
old that they should pay much more than any other generation and at the
same time get less back than their predecessors did? The boomers have a
big vote, but not that big. At some point it is inevitable that there
will be a backlash. Laws and tax policy that favor one (minority) age
group over all others have no chance of acceptance. The only question is
when and how badly it will end.
France has been ripping itself apart over a subset of this issue for the
past few weeks. America’s problems are much larger than France. We just
have not confronted ours as yet. In France they are burning cars to
vent their anger. I don’t think it will play out like that in America.
We will not burn cars. We will just grow to hate old people. Cars can be
replaced. The social consequences of age warfare will last a
very long time.
To me SS as a benefit, as originally framed, no longer applies. Here in lies the fundamental mistake as to what SS has become.
The reality is SS is simply a tax.
Call it whatever you want, FICA, FORKA, PORKA, the name means TAX.
The root problem is more likely a tax levied without a benefit to the tax payer.
Having paid tax prior does not gaurentee a future benefit. There is no obligation for the US Government to pay SS.
The view should be one of paying more tax to fund Government, SS is just a higher priority distribution. Mainly because it effects votes. But the political view in Washington is one of non-obligation except during election time. All the politicians know that distributions are made from net tax revenue and the sale of debt. Cash comes in cash goes out.
The battle is not with boomers;
Politically, the battle is simply votes.
Fiscally, the battle is more tax revenue, no matter what the source.
In the larger sense, SS is still a paid benefit because the FED is monetizing the debt. The FED is the largest contributor to SS shortfalls. Without the FED we would not be able to fund Government.
----------
If we look at the SS concept of pay as you go, what happens when revenue falls short and the FED pushes the currancy to the edge of debasement. It will be cut as you go. Its that simple.
Benefits will be cut. Either outright or through debasement. It is happening now. Prepare yourself.
Mark Beck
Gold, check.
Silver, check.
Pb and high-speed Pb delivery devices, check.
Non-hybrid seeds, check.
Survival gear, check.
Bear traps for whining Progressive/Socialist moochers, coming right up.
damn, i've got to get some bear traps!
We're all to blame for the shit that is raining down upon us. We know, if we take a moment to be even a little honest with ourselves, that our entire western way of life is a gigantic ponzi scheme, but we're more than happy to delude ourselves into thinking someone else is to blame, so we keep going along with it, just so long as we get our slice of action. Isn't that so? "It's not my fault", we all cry. No, it's the banksters' fault, it's the politicians' fault, it's another generations' fault, it's the fault of the goddamned Good Humor man because that prick didn't have my favourite flavour of tiger tail ice-cream when I wanted it. Shit. Take a look in the mirror sometime and ask yourself why you keep voting along party lines (any party) for the same sociopathic bastards over and over again, and then expect different results. What are you, nuts? Hell, when it comes to pointing fingers at who is to blame, realize that in doing so, you point three fingers at yourself (or like the Terminator said, "it's in your nature to destroy yourselves"). Damn right!
Most of this garbage could be exposed as the fraud it is by making paying into Social Security completely voluntary. You want it, YOU PAY for it! Howl all you want Progressive/Socialists, but thats what's coming!
Maybe they'll get what they were promised, but what will it buy?
a very telling book written in the early '90's called "Social Insecurity."
Note, most of the workers will be minorities and most of the retired white.
Enough said.
Making the same points is another watershed book ... "The Coming Generation Storm"
yep, how long before the gov is minority majority?
I noticed today on a video of new body scanners at an airport
the TSA workers I saw on the video were minorities.
Of course this is demographics but makes me curious of gov hires.
I'm not rascist just making observations.
Sure - let's get Kevorkian and his needles to fix all of us over 46. We just have to look back 80 years ago and "as strange" ideas were also being discussed... Even good old Thorstein Veblen had something to say on the topic.
Forget cutting spending and the drain that the Boomers will be on the economy. The economy is on the verge of a complete meltdown. Cutting programs to Boomers is going to be the least of the problem.
Global currency collapse --> Hyperinflation --> Destruction of of US denominated debt --> reemergence of US and most of western world within 2 years with a clean slate.
Things are looking up... we just have to get through that pesky problem of several years of social unrest.
Drive the dollar to zero and this (SS) problem is solved ... the young work and thrive, the old fade away.
+1776
Been LMAO since I received this email............seemed somehow apropos for this thread......
MEXICO IS ANGRY!
Three cheers for Arizona
The shoe is on the other foot and the Mexicans from the State of Sonora, Mexico do not like it. Can you believe the nerve of these people? It's almost funny.
The State of Sonora is angry at the influx of Mexicans into Mexico . Nine state legislators from the Mexican State of Sonora traveled to Tucson to complain about Arizona 's new employer crackdown on illegals from Mexico . It seems that many Mexican illegals are returning to their hometowns and the officials in the Sonora state government are ticked off.
A delegation of nine state legislators from Sonora was in Tucson on Tuesday to state that Arizona 's new Employer Sanctions Law will have a devastating effect on the Mexican state. At a news conference, the legislators said that Sonora , - Arizona 's southern neighbor - made up of mostly small towns - cannot handle the demand for housing, jobs and schools that it will face as Mexican workers return to their hometowns from the USA without jobs or money.
The Arizona law, which took effect Jan. 1, punishes Arizona employers who knowingly hire individuals without valid legal documents to work in the United States . Penalties include suspension of, or loss of, their business license.
The Mexican legislators are angry because their own citizens are returning to their hometowns, placing a burden on THEIR state government. 'How can Arizona pass a law like this?' asked Mexican Rep Leticia Amparano-Gamez, who represents Nogales . 'There is not one person living in Sonora who does not have a friend or relative working in Arizona ,' she said, speaking in Spanish. 'Mexico is not prepared for this, for the tremendous problems it will face as more and more Mexicans working in Arizona and who were sending money to their families return to their home-towns in Sonora without jobs,' she said. 'We are one family, socially and economically,' she said of the people of Sonora and Arizona .
Wrong! The United States is a sovereign nation, not a subsidiary of Mexico , and its taxpayers are not responsible for the welfare of Mexico 's citizens. It's time for the Mexican government, and its citizens, to stop feeding parasitically off the United States and to start taking care of its/their own needs.
Too bad that other states within the USA don't pass a law just like that passed by Arizona . Maybe that's the answer, since our own Congress will do nothing!
New Immigration Laws: Read to the bottom or you will miss the message...
1. There will be no special bilingual programs in the schools.
2. All ballots will be in this nation's language.
3. All government business will be conducted in our language.
4. Non-residents will NOT have the right to vote no matter how long they are here.
5. Non-citizens will NEVER be able to hold political office.
6. Foreigners will not be a burden to the taxpayers. No welfare, no food stamps, no health care, or other government assistance programs. Any burden will be deported.
7. Foreigners can invest in this country, but it must be an amount at least equal to 40,000 times the daily minimum wage.
8. If foreigners come here and buy land... options will be restricted. Certain parcels including waterfront property are reserved for citizens naturally born into this country.
9. Foreigners may have no protests; no demonstrations, no waving of a foreign flag, no political organizing, no bad-mouthing our president or his policies. These will lead to deportation.
10. If you do come to this country illegally, you will be actively hunted & when caught, sent to jail until your deportation can be arranged. All assets will be taken from you.
Too strict?
The Above laws are current immigration laws of MEXICO!
+1
Charlton Heston in Soylent Green. Now THAT was age warfare ... though I'm not sure that it was done in good taste, ha ha ha.
All generations currently extant in North America should be grateful that we have lived for the most part like the Kings of Old, riding the wave of Peak Oil. Compared to one hundred years ago we have lived multiple lives and have had many chances to recover from what would formerly have been fatal mistakes that would have forever doomed our lives.
Reading biographies from the 19th Century one is struck by how often previously prosperous people or families were wiped out by some catastrophe, never recovered financially, and died in poverty.
We have seen to the ends of the Universe fueled by a bubble of seemingly endless energy.
Now is the time to fight Evil, totalitarian evil in all of its forms, whether domestic or foreign. Preserve individual liberty at all costs, for truly that liberty which is already aglimmering, is all that we have left, for ourselves and our children.
+1
I think the analysis is accurate, but the blame is incorrect.
It is not the baby boomers, their retirement is bought and paid for. The fault lies as much with those over 30 who voted for the corruption that goes for deficit funding.
Stronger, less corrupt and smarter politicians would have reined in the dotcom companies, Fraudie and Funny, the banks et al way before they blew up the macro economic/political system.
Strong ethical and smart people can still run for election and swing the outturns you describe. Remember that this analyis 30 years ago said we would not have a problem. Long term analyses are generally wrong, since change happens.
I suggest you run for the senate.
Is a one dollar one vote paradigm in effect?
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5682
Thanx for the great flow bk
Add in medicade and I think the CBO is being optimistic (again).
Plus the people born in the 80's are worried about social security yet, they are chasing skirts(pants) and trying to find a job.
Age warfare: dont buy into it.
The baby boomers have been paying away slavishly on the promise of comfortable retirement. Its not their fault they were sold a lie, the majority of them wont get back a fraction of what they put in.
Interesting comments on the nuclear family being a historical anomaly. I can see that being the case going forward.. unless we can somehow sell the benefit ponzi idea onto the developing world: 'sure thing mr. citizen of india, just start paying us a couple of percent of your income each week and you'll get the same when you are older, no no dont worry about a thing, we've modelled every eventuality and its guarenteed'
+1
right, Mr. & Mrs. citizen of India: you see, governments replace the need for children. It takes a village, you see. Just give us your gold and we'll give you a green piece of linen as a receipt. redeemable anytime you would like, of course.
The export of a fraudulent system, the west isn't done for just yet!
Perhaps the pulling down and hollowing out of the west should be seen from the perspective of the raising up of the east. A levelling of sorts and a trade-off within the global economy beyond our perspective of national economies. Only I know the wealth wealth destruction of our fiat system collapsing helps nobody. But perhaps we shouldn't begrudge every indian or chinese job we offshore, just those who industrialise the process seeking to profit exponentially off the differential.
Just musings.
This is better news than I expected. Being a child of the 60's I expected to collect very little SS. But this study says that I will still collect most of it.
Haven't been paying close attention here, have you? The World Economy is heading for a Great Implosion -- Social Security will be the least of your worries in the future...
It's almost like we're being told that Social Security is just a giant Ponzi scheme or something...
We obviously need to cut back. First lets cut back on the military. We can make drastic cuts to the military--without endangering ourselves in the least--to the tune of trillions. If we eliminate our standing army, in accordance with the wishes of the founding fathers, that by itself would make a tremendous difference.
We can stop subsidizing residential real estate. We have enough housing stock for generations. We no longer need tax deductions for mortgage interest and taxes to encourage residential construction, as we did after WWII.
We could reform medical care. Allow a public option which would eventually put the private insurers out of business and eliminate that drag on the economy. People would have more money in their pockets to spend. Similarly, we could allow Americans to negotiate for the lowest prescription prices. In France, the same drugs at full price are one third the cost of what Americans pay.
We could tax corporations that move jobs overseas and do the bulk of their manufacturing with near slave labor. This would bring more jobs home and generate more income taxes and FICA.
We could outlaw banks charging usury by capping the interest rates they are allowed to charge at say 6%. This would put more money in people's pockets generating more economic activity and as a consequence, more income taxes and FICA.
We could stop QE and all the other attempts to bail out the rich by debasing the dollar. Interest rates could be allowed to reach their natural levels, which would help old people to live off the interest on their savings rather than having to invade the principal. Similarly, the Social Security trust fund could earn a decent rate of interest, rather than near zero. Undoubtedly, a big reason for Bruce's projected shortfall and his panic over the need to cut back Social Security benefits is due to these artificially low interest rates which only exist to bail out the banks, and by extension the elites. Rather than bail out the too big to fails, they should be nationalized.
There are many ways to assure that Social Security will be there for everyone, young and old alike, without gutting the program or eliminating benefits. When people like Bruce talk about cutting back these programs which help ordinary people, one should always ask, "Cui bono?" ie, "to whom the benefit?". In using tables and charts to alarm the younger generation, Bruce is himself inciting age warfare, even though this gives the appearance of pure objectivity. But the younger generation will be cutting off its own nose to spite its face if it falls prey to this type of propaganda. Old age comes faster than you imagine, young whippersnappers!
FAIL!!!
We aren't as gulible as you think we are Obamawanabe. Part of understanding how the reset button works is understanding that you yourself maybe lost in the reset.
You must have a Phd in Propoganda because thats some serious hope and change stuff right there.
Get-er Done!
Obamawannabee? Boy are you out to lunch. May you get what you wish for.
One of the things that continue to surprise me is how seemingly intelligent people fail to understand the rhythms of nature. It appears you’ve found a panacea for all the world’s problems and logically it makes sense but you apply it to a system that is completely corrupt. It’s almost like you’re trying to prevent fall and winter because you like summer so much. You know spring and summer will be back but you wish to prevent fall so you can enjoy more summer. It doesn’t work that way, you can't skip fall and winter and go back to spring.
that made perfect sense to me.
the attempt is to circumvent the laws of financial physics. the pendulum has swung to far away from reality, and it is now swinging back with a vengeance. How gullible can folks be?!!!!
The rule of law (government) is simply to defend the physically weaker man (or woman) against the physically stronger man who might otherwise take his peacefully earned property - property which was earned peacefully through free trade by giving folks what they wanted, and gaining in return what they were willing to trade from their own labor, whether it be directly through barter or indirectly through a medium of exchange (gold, silver, tobacco leaves, etc.). Protecting property rights encourages innovation for the benefit of everyone.
Its so simple, but nobody wishes to acknowledge it. Rather, its all about the free lunch that does not exist and never has!!!!
The Rent-Seekers have captured the rule of law and are writng the law(s) to favor themselves. The only way out that I can see is the coming Great Implosion! Once the fraud of the controlling/benevolent Govt is swept aside, I only hope we can avoid Adolph Hitler V2.0!
agreed.
you had moments of greatness, but here is where you get it all wrong, my friend:
more "big government solutions" doomed to fail.
The big government solution right now is to always favor big business and get out of the way of their predatory practices.
Some people seem to assume that capitalism is about small business. However, there are good arguments against that advanced by Fernand Braudel, for example. He regards small business as "the layer beneath" capitalism, which is really about big monopolistic enterprises who merely tolerate or profit from small business to do the sorts of ancillery jobs or specialty work that they don't wish to do themselves. He criticizes Lenin for having mistakenly identified this small scale private enterprise with capitalism, which caused him to eliminate all forms of private ownership. Should small enterprises create something of value to capitalists, they will inevitably be absorbed by big business to reap the profits. Another characteristic he cites of actual capitalism is the marriage of capitalism and government. Right now, we have the marriage of finance capitalism, represented by the big banks and government, where we have the revolving door between Wall St and Washington. This is at the heart of capitalism, not some kind of aberration. Small business, where you have true competition, has nothing to do with capitalism, except that they have to borrow from the big banks and become dependent on the big monopolies. "The state itself creates monopolies-to take just one example-Electricité de France,...is today accused of being a state within the state...And it is the bigger private firms which receive state aid and subsidy, whereas banks are supposed to restrict credit to small firms-which amounts to condemning them to vegetate or vanish."
So maybe you are all in favor of Microsoft's de facto monopoly, the big banks being able to charge 35% interest on credit cards, all the crappy fees that we are obliged to pay for telephone service, car rental, etc. that double the bait and switch price we think we're going to get. You like big business? Big insurance companies for whom Obama's so-called health plan forces us to pay exhorbitant premiums? These big businesses are the government.
If I were an Obamawannabee, I would promise the things I laid out in the post above and then turn my back on all my promises once I became president. Obama promised merely what the American people wanted. Once elected, he showed his true colors.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbZDjnWtK1A
this is not capitalism but rather 'corporate welfare' which is only possible with centralized power and large government coffers, both of which are in direct conflict with liberty.
this is because we have centralized (communist) money planning, not capitalism. If it were legal to trade with competing currencies, including gold and silver, within our economy with no major tax burdens then individuals would loan each other wealth and resources and any regional banks would only be necessary for safety deposit boxes where they charge a fee to guard 'money'.
Obama, like every communist that ever lived, is a liar and guilty of high treason. I'm glad you finally realize this. now give up on your "great society" lie because it will only bring you more heartache.
TOOK THE WORDS RIGHT OUT OF MY MOUTH, Sabibaby!!!!!!!
Uncle chop chop,
I saw you quote Martin Armstrong, I read his writings a fair bit and am unsure what to make of him. He seems brilliant and very well informed, but I find myself wondering - perhaps that is exactly the 'conman's' way.
I'd be interested in your thoughts.
i'm reticent to outright endorse the man versus his ideas. He definitely has genius in his original thoughts. what type of family man is he? I could not say. He may be different things to different people. So far, I very much appreciate what little I have read of his work. And, for all I know, he could be a "political prisoner" of a certain type (perhaps like Peter Schiff's father). He definitely believes in freedom.
In essence, I understand that there is a level of subversive behavior of his that both hurts us and helps us at the same time. The system that Martin Armstrong protests is fraudulent, but we are forced to pick up the slack for those who cheat it (which seems like a lot of folks these days). Did Martin Armstrong cheat? I do not know.
There are others much more than I who are well-versed in the Martin Armstrong cult following. That said, the quote that I referenced above was put very, very well, and what I do know about Martin Armstrong I like overall. He is a dissenting voice outside of the fiat-based Wall Street Industrial Complex.
Thanks, i've certainly learnt a heck of a lot from his writings but will continue to keep a level of careful scepticism about them I guess.
He'll be due for release in a year or so from memory so it'll be interesting to see what happens after that. Its a wonder he wont be out earlier on good behaviour (presuming he has been good).
I'll certainly keep reading him, as I too find him a breath of fresh air and his knowledge appears to be very well-rounded.
Quote from Chopper:
1/ Awww c’mon Keithie, I thought I was a good bloke
2/ Ha! What have you ever done that was good?
1/ Well, I bashed you…. that was good, wasn’t it?
+1
The elites would love it if we keep fighting amongst ourselves. They make up these false conflicts to divide and conquer -- democrats vs republicans, race vs race, old vs young, etc...
The real fight is elite international banking cartels vs everyone else in the world. Don't be distracted.
Roger that! Good luck trying to convey this to the Boomer’s, I doubt they care.
Roger that to both of you!
These Boomers will not care until they feel pain. In a world where interest rates have gone from 21% in 1981 to (less than) 0% today, THEY'VE BARELY FELT PAIN.
International Banking Cartels seem pretty swell under these circumstances,
...until they aren't.
thats a great place to start!
You young people with your 84% federal tax rates think you are so hot.
there is no money. only fraud and its resulting
"debt". commitments made in a moment of
fed induced insanity causing exponentially inflated
prices for necessities of life that are used as chips in
a crooked casino, supplying pirates the dramatic cover
they need to make their larceny opaque. yes,
a price must be paid.
Fiery comments indeed, I didn’t expect to see boomers show so much hatred towards GenXer’s
All the “This is your last warning” BS. The truth of the matter is GenXer’s have no entitlement notions toward SS. We already know we’ll be working forever.
All you need to do is poll Boomers to see their level of happiness. Do this now, notice the fear in their eye as their 401K’s plummet and they lose their jobs to GenXer’s. The comments posted by Boomers already reassert the fact that these are some scared pups and have just now begun realizing their entitlements are gone with the wind. The glassy glaze in their eye due to the ghostly notion they won’t be spending their retirement on a golf course, or with their grandchildren. Growing up for so long and expecting what they believe to be rightfully theirs but never verifying the math behind the greatest ponzi of their mis-entitled lives.
“This is your last warning” HAHAHAHA!!! Or what, you’ll get mad? Boohoo, we’ll pay towards your SS knowing we won’t receive the same but we’ll still have the last laugh as history etches the Boomer generation to be the most destructive, gullible, and mislead generation in the history of the Earth.
Yeah, keep talking smack you unappreciative fucks. Demand this and that all you want, just as you were raised to believe. History will not look kindly on you and neither will the next 15 years.
I am a boomer. When I raised my children, I did so with a decidedly pro life point of view. I kept a baby when it was inconvenient. But all around me I saw self centered boomers behaving like babies and aborting babies at will. Next, they jettisoned religion. Not worth it, they said. Not scientific.
I told my kids, "one day the very same people who denied their own children their birthright: life, will be faced by those who did survive. And because life will have thus been esteemed so cheap, and we boomers will be so many and will require so much, life will be cheap, and they will be hoisted upon their own pitard."
That's how it's gonna go down.