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New CBO Forecast - Age Warfare

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

I wrote a piece
on a federal retirement program that elicited some interesting
comments. It was clear to me that there is already a negative bias
toward the baby boomers. There is an understanding out there that the
boomers are going to be sucking up a great deal of resources in the next
decade or so. Some comments:

We have witnessed the unprecedented lack of fiscal responsibility from the majority "Baby Boomer" voter base.

We've met the enemy, and it is the emerging 'ruling class' pensioners of the Baby Boomer generation.

...get ready for AGE WARFARE

As if on cue, the Congressional Budget Office has thrown out some
numbers to fire up this emotive issue. The CBO report confirmed (to me)
that age warfare is in our future.

CBO looked at all of the scenarios regarding Social Security. They ran a
total of 500 simulations that reflect the different variables of the
puzzle. The analysis assumed that there would be no changes in current
law on SS. The objective of the exercise was to quantify the
probabilities of which generation would most likely not get the benefits
they were (A) paying for, (B) entitled to and (C) expecting.

The results of the CBO analysis is that there is societal/economic
trouble in front of us on this issue. It should come as no surprise to
readers that if you are young, you have a problem. The CBO report
defines which generation(s) will be hurt and by how much. I found their
conclusions to be very troubling.

If you were born in the 1940’s the probability that you will receive
100% of your scheduled benefits is nearly 100%. The people in this age
group will die before SS is forced to make cuts in scheduled benefits.

If you were born in the Sixties things still do not look so bad.
Depending on how long you will live the odds (76+%) are pretty good that
you will get all of your scheduled benefits. However, if you were born
in the Eighties you have a problem. The numbers fall off a cliff if you
are between 30 and 40 years old today. In only 13% of the possible
scenarios you will get what you are currently expecting from SS. If you
were born after 1990 you simply have no statistical chance of getting
what you are paying for. The full CBO report can be found here. This (hard to read) chart is from that report.

Sometime next year the issue of SS will have to come up. It will be
central to the recommendations from the toothless and worthless Fiscal
Commission. The results of that review and the recommendations that will
be made are already know. Payroll taxes will have to rise for both
employers and employees, the age for eligibility will raised for those
under 55 and benefits for that same group will have to reduced. If those
steps are taken the promised benefits to the baby boomers (60+) can be
met.

That can’t possibly work. How can we convince a 30-40 year
old that they should pay much more than any other generation and at the
same time get less back than their predecessors did? The boomers have a
big vote, but not that big. At some point it is inevitable that there
will be a backlash. Laws and tax policy that favor one (minority) age
group over all others have no chance of acceptance. The only question is
when and how badly it will end.

France has been ripping itself apart over a subset of this issue for the
past few weeks. America’s problems are much larger than France. We just
have not confronted ours as yet. In France they are burning cars to
vent their anger. I don’t think it will play out like that in America.
We will not burn cars. We will just grow to hate old people. Cars can be
replaced. The social consequences of age warfare will last a
very long time.

 

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Sat, 10/23/2010 - 15:27 | 672177 chopper read
chopper read's picture

well put. 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 15:56 | 672224 Orly
Orly's picture

very

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 14:20 | 672088 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Bruce, I was just thinking the very same thing. Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill. Tangentially, beware of those with nothing to lose.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:21 | 671981 stev3e
stev3e's picture

Wrong.

The Boomers were the first generation screwed by the SS ponzi.  They paid in so that the "Greatest Generation" (the one that voted in the dickheads that created the monstrosity and paid in next to nothing) could suck out retirement and Medicare funds for decades after they stopped working.  Every subsequent generation will be screwed by this system.  The Boomers, in particular, will get screwed the most, since they will be unable to receive anything close to what they have paid in while the current generation of losers will be able to group-rationalize their hatred for the idiots that spoiled them and vote in changes accordingly.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:57 | 672049 ATG
ATG's picture

There is no free lunch, particularly with actuarially unsound government programs that were raided to fund budget deficits

Chile had a healthcare pension plan based in the NYSI that outperformed SSI Trust many multiples

The Social Contract was broken by bankster politicians while Baby Boomers were too busy trying to keep up their standard of living despite H1Bs, offshoring, outrplacements, subsidized illegals and rigged COLAs 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 15:25 | 672170 chopper read
chopper read's picture

+1

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:13 | 671953 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

The CBO first wrote about this in the analysis of the Federal budget package bills... in 1996.  The Clinton White House and Republican Congress both used it as a bludgeon during the 1999 primary season if you recall.

Please keep in mind that through the Clinton, Bush and Obama admins the CBO through all it's politicized transformations of staff, focus, and scope of mandates, has consistently focused at least a few papers each year on the future intergenerational warfare as the expenditures and receipts of the Federal Government spread further and further apart.

 http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=492&type=0&sequence=4

 

 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:50 | 672043 ATG
ATG's picture

Wasn't it the CBO that waited until 0Care passed to reveal it will cost another trillion a year?

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 23:10 | 672766 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

CBO prognistications suffer from GIGO -- Garbage In, Garbage Out.  Congress supplies them with hopelessly optimistic numbers and false promises.  NO ONE should believe the CBO!

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:06 | 671951 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Gen X & Y should be careful about bashing us boomers. I hope they realize if they go too far we're going to be living in their basement one day (role reversal).

 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 15:22 | 672165 chopper read
chopper read's picture

i would be happy to put a few Boomers up in my basement if we could rid ourselves of the communist scourge of social entitlements.  

it would be a fuckload cheaper!

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 20:08 | 672518 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

if you're this pissed off with entitlements in the usa then you should have a look at the uk just now as they get themselves off 12 years of marxism.

 

the lefty government put 1/3 of the population working for the state and brought in 2.8 million immigrants while paying for 3 million others to do nothing on benefits.

eg a recent job ad for the council asked for applications for a 'street football co-ordinator'

if it wasn't funny you'd cry

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 21:09 | 672598 chopper read
chopper read's picture

not to mention the financing of an Islamic State in Manchester and on the East End of London.  No big deal, its only British citizens bombing their own.  

+1, BigDuke6. 

I just got back one year ago from living in england for the past 6 1/2 years.  My British wife and I finally left because the already high taxes were raised further.  how is that for anecdotal evidence of a tax revenue producer leaving based on a marginal upward change in tax rates?  

I am not alone.  Another buddy, and his British wife, just moved back two months ago after 8 years for the same reason.  Atlas is shrugging wherever he can.  

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:28 | 671990 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

US, AU, and CA "Baby boomers" are the first and only generation in the history of humanity where the concept of a "nuclear family" without extended family living arrangements was considered a societal norm.  (Outside of frontier societies, of which the US ended in 1908 or 1913, and CA in the 1960's)

It was an aberration of the post-WII world economy, and will never again be seen in the first world.

I explain this to baby boomers repeatedly and they react like spoiled children repeatedly while I then point out the ludicrous sums they spend for nursing homes for their own elderly parents and the substandard care they receive from immigrant nursing home careworkers.

They also get mad when I mention there will be no Social Security and Medicare in the US by the time the median cadre bulge of boomers reach retirement age.  I was especially hated back in 2000-2001 when I said we'd all be watching American pensioners starving int he streets like the Soviet pensioners in the streets of Moscow...

The United States Federal Reserve bankers already know that is their endgame... you will get SS and Medicare but you will not receive COLA increases while the USD goes through bouts of hyperinflation and devaluation.

I've met an elderly Soviet nuclear engineer who moved to NYC ...  he worked at the highest level of the semi-military nuclear energy industry in Soviet Union (worked at the closed cities for nuclear technologies)... had the 3rd highest pension scale for Federal Soviet employees... and his pension would have allowed him 3 loaves of bread a week in Moscow after the 1998 ruble collapse... He moved to NYC and took a job as an accountant-type at age 72.

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 00:21 | 672855 chopper read
chopper read's picture

great story.  thanks. 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:03 | 671947 ILikeBoats
ILikeBoats's picture

Each generation has failed to protect freedom and this is impacting on later generations.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:02 | 671944 stev3e
stev3e's picture

I would have to agree that a generation war is coming but it will have subtle tactics and strategies - like pulling the plug on that machine when nobody's looking.

But it is well deserved.  The boomers were the destroyers of many things including their own children as they spoiled them into being the most worthless group of people I have ever encountered anywhere, in any country.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 23:12 | 672768 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

You're right. If you pinned me physically against you....you have no prayer compared to my athletic 6 foot 1, 210 pound stature. And, academically, my 2 degrees by the age of 32 is a joke! I run a 6 minute mile, bench press 300+ pounds, 23 pull-ups, and have travelled to numerous countries yet I am undesirable. Called out from work twice in ten years and have a modest 15 yr mortgage.....yet I'm a retard. No car/student loan/CC payment! I had a grow light and learned how to be "agriculturally productive"!

Very spoiled here with the discipline of a nat! Oh yeah, I've partied beyond belief and have dated 900+ girls.......fuck, I am spoiled!

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 00:01 | 672835 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

nice stats. you left out the circumference of your head and the length of your cock.

(and hopefully your /sarcasm tag)

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 18:21 | 672353 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

This country was built by people who were rugged individuals that took responsibility for their own actions.  Don't blame a particular generation for the robber barons, unions and criminal legislatures that have attacked this nation like an invasive cancer.  When half the people in this nation vote in the crooks they feel will give them a handout you get out of control govt/socialism and the kind of crap we are seeing now.  If you think that whining and trying to blame some other generation will solve this nations problems...........well then you are part of the problem.  Criminal organizations/governments are perpetuated by whining people that are more interested in getting a handout than working for or producing something.

Stop whining....................What these criminals want more than anything is for people to start fighting one another rather than cleaning up the corruption.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 20:08 | 672522 aaronb17
aaronb17's picture

"Rugged individualists" are who are stealing this country's wealth right now.  They're coming up with awesome ways to rip off America by leveraging access to overseas labor and resources, advantageous influence in government, etc.

"Rugged individualists" are simply people who refuse to recognize the contributions and rights of others in their own lives.  They take credit for everything themselves, and think they are somehow independent of everything that caused them and their country to be what it is today.

This country was built by "rugged individualists" who refused to recognize property rights held by others, and took everything for themselves.  The original rugged individualists thus got land for free, trees for free, oil for free, etc.  So of course some people got super rich.

Our country is decaying is because that frontier mentality has had to turn to feeding on itself, because we've run out of resources to "claim."  Now, American business sees the fleecing of its own people as the new frontier.  These "rugged individualists" are mining our nation, homesteading our wealth, claiming it all for themselves.  They are the ones now controlling multinational corporations, playing nation against nation in games no nation wins.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 22:47 | 672735 mrhonkytonk1948
mrhonkytonk1948's picture

Is "rugged individualist" some kind of euphemism for "sociopath"?

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:58 | 671933 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The Obama solution is elderly genocide through high inflation and no COLA for the pensioners and rationing via HC.  Already in Massachusetts, the elderly are being denied "life extending" benefits such as hip replacements and heart valves; the next step will be easy.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:56 | 671929 Shiznit Diggity
Shiznit Diggity's picture

The odds against the 1980s cohort are 7 to 1 (87 to 13) not 8 to 1 (1 in 8 probability = 7 to 1 odds)

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:11 | 671969 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Tks. I suck at statistics. What are the odds for 2000 cohorts?

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 15:36 | 672191 Shiznit Diggity
Shiznit Diggity's picture

5% (1 in 20) probability = 19 to 1 odds against

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 23:42 | 672807 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Tks Shiznit. This will get lost in all the other comments, but you make the final point on this. If you are twenty this is very long odds against you

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:55 | 671928 chet
chet's picture

Soylent Green

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:41 | 671914 blindman
blindman's picture

not to worry.  the miracle of modern medicine and health

care, stress and modern food products (frankenfood) will kill off the

majority of seniors in no time.  problem solved.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:47 | 672028 ATG
Sat, 10/23/2010 - 14:18 | 672085 blindman
blindman's picture

can you believe it?  i think it is a principle like

the way the ocean cleans itself.  physics.  when

culling starts taking place in all those things that

were supposed to be life affirming you know you have

hit bottom.  saving is financial suicide.  medical treatment

is homicide.  ambition requires fraud to succeed.  failure is

the quickest means to success.   non productive activity is

the means to great wealth.  sex is death and food is poison. 

the android meme where people serve the machine, as broken

as it is. 

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 00:04 | 672837 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

. . . and the blind see all things clearly.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:37 | 671908 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

One point to remember Bruce- old people vote. They have time to harass legislators. This will play into the matrix. 

As for age warfare, only if it is useful to the elite. As another means of dividing the popular expression, it could be very useful. However, everyone has a grandma and it will be difficult to paint that kind of face on the issue. 

Especially in an internet age where people can actually hear other sides of the issue at variance with the crap put out by government. However, all national austerity plans are targeting entitlements, so will we revolt are not? This is the bigger question for me. 

As the elites manage the MSM, it is difficult to say. The youth of today are much more saavy about information. They are much more susceptible to authority. Interesting matchup....Huh?

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:41 | 672023 ATG
ATG's picture

.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 14:07 | 672072 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Nice piece. The eugenics movement is alive and well in America, but most people refuse to acknowledge it. Acres magazine, a magazine devoted to biodynamic and organic farming has continued to carry articles about this and especially the effects of GMO crops, their legal fascism and the falling nutritional levels of GMO foods. 

I am certain they see humanity as an organism that is growing in ways that threaten their use of resources for their own needs and therefore must be "culled". Eliminating the least capable resources while maintaining a sufficient competition to pressure better paid workers to accept less and less. 

I am wondering when humans will finally figure out the meaning of humanitarian or humane- it isn't what you think it is.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 21:16 | 672609 DosZap
DosZap's picture

"Nice piece. The eugenics movement is alive and well in America, but most people refuse to acknowledge it."

You bet it is, and one of the #1TOP proponents of it, is a TOP CZAR in the Obama Whitehouse.

Right in line with Margaret Sanger, and George Bernard Shaw.

 

Folks thing the Nazi's thought this shit up, hell no, they got it from these two clowns.

Just like the Propoganda Machine................ Herr Goebbels, got it from Woodrow Wilsons right hand man.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:58 | 671934 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

The young are just like the young of the past, except they know how to text, but not how to work. 

I see 100,00's sent off by the pot belly grey hairs to die anytime now.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 22:56 | 672746 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

Stereotyping isn't fair......I've called out twice in ten years.....I'm 31 and recently unemployed. It's ok, because I don't like financing bad decisions anyway! Call it........good practice for parenting! 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 22:56 | 672745 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

Stereotyping isn't fair......I've called out twice in ten years.....I'm 31 and recently unemployed. It's ok, because I don't like financing bad decisions anyway! Call it........good practice for parenting! 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:36 | 671906 demsco
demsco's picture

Yup, you hit the nail on the head. Read posts from young people and you see the hatred already. However, I blame this on the Boomers too since they spoiled their kids to death and never forced them to work for anything. They will reap what they sowed because they wanted to be buddies with their kids instead of parents. Dumbasses.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 21:49 | 672649 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

The worst thing a lot of boomers did to their children was not merely spoiling them.  It was living selfishly, neglecting their kids, and divorcing so that the kids' home is riven in two and the kids tossed back and forth between households.

Then they wonder why the kids grow up feeling a little "ambivalent" about their sucky parents.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 23:31 | 672761 chopper read
chopper read's picture

"imminent Crucible", you accused me of 'talking tough' when i was simply using bold caps to capture attention to my message.  then you made a value statement about me being a "raving dork" based on your imagining me talking tough.  

now, what i want to know is: how tough are you?  you've clearly taken the side of some type of Clint Eastwood character, pointing out what a "raving dork" that I am.  You must be quite a tough fella to make these kind of statements.  tough guy, right?  a real bad motherfucker, are you?  

i would really like to know, tough guy.  really.  you've peaked my interest.  

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:14 | 671960 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Boomers have spent the last 20 to 30 years offshoring as many jobs as possible while chasing asset bubbles.  Now the asset bubbles are bursting and the boomers are throwing young people under the bus to protect their faux wealth.  You can blame the kids for not working, and the kids will blame you for elimanting the U.S. economy.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 16:35 | 672260 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Hansel,

Bro, you need (and everyone else here), needs to be VERY specific at WHAT BOOMERS did these things.

ALL these problems point back to ONE 10 SQ MILE area..............ALL of them.

Who allowed the American Mfg base to go offshore?.

Who DROVE them off?. And WHY?

Why did our leaders sacrifice OUR country, our citizens welfare?.

Why did they allow those jobs to GO?,they did not have to...........TARIFFS could have stopped it dead.

Why weren't they used?. A MASTER plan,maybe?.

You/We are focused on exactly what THEY want us to focus on, EACH other,when in reality, WE had no say,short of a CIVIL WAR.

 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 19:28 | 672451 chopper read
chopper read's picture

TARIFFS could have stopped it dead.

DO YOU THINK YOUR FELLOW COUNTRYMAN OWES YOU A MANUFACTURING JOB?

"TARIFFS could have stopped it dead."?!!!!   YOU FUCKWITS LOOK TO WASHINGTON TO SOLVE ALL OF YOUR PROBLEMS.  YOUR COUNTRYMEN OWE YOU NOTHING.  NOTHING.  NOTHING, YOU DUMBFUCK!  STOP PICKING THEIR POCKETS WITH TARIFFS.  

YOU CANNOT MAKE A MAN WORTH MORE BY PAYING HIM MORE.  YOU CANNOT MULTIPLY WEALTH BY DIVIDING IT.  UNSKILLED LABOR IS WORTH PENNIES.  GET SOME FUCKING SKILLS.  GETS YOUR BALLS BACK, AMERICA.  OUT-COMPETE THE COMPETITION.  OUT-SKILL THE COMPETITION.  DO NOT WHINE THAT THEY ARE WILLING TO WORK HARDER THAN YOU FOR LESS.  I CALL THAT GRIT, AND I ADMIRE IT.  

YOU FUCKWADS WANT THE GOVERNMENT TO DO SO MUCH WHICH IS WHY YOU HAVE NO ECONOMIC FREEDOM TO SUCCEED.  GOVERNMENT IS NOT THE SOLUTION.  GOVERNMENTS DO NOT CREATE JOBS.  THIS IS A BROKEN WINDOW FALLACY.  GOVERNMENTS ARE NOT YOUR FAMILY OR FRIEND.  GOVERNMENTS ARE DEADLY FORCE AT THE EXPENSE OF LIBERTY EVERY TIME.  GOVERNMENTS ARE LIARS.  GOVERNMENTS ARE BROKEN PROMISES.  GOVERNMENTS WILL NOT SAVE YOU FROM THE WORLD.  ONLY YOU CAN DO THIS.  BUT GOVERNMENTS CAN MURDER YOU IN COLD BLOOD OR IMPRISON YOU.

WAKE UP AND SMELL THE DOGSHIT YOU FUCKING PUSSIES.  GET YOUR BALLS BACK, AMERICA.  TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF, THEN YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY.  IF THE GOVERNMENT WAS NOT ROBBING US BLIND WE WOULD RULE THE WORLD THROUGH PURELY PEACEFUL MEANS BY GIVING PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANT AT A PRICE THAT THEY CAN PAY.  GOVERNMENTS HAVE RUINED THIS COUNTRY, AND YOU WANT TARIFFS TO SAVE YOU FROM A HARD DAYS WORK? 

FUCK YOU, PUSSY.  YOU CANNOT HANDLE FREEDOM.

IF YOU WANT FREEDOM, THEN END OUR CENTRAL MONEY PLANNING, FRACTIONAL RESERVE COUNTERFEITING, FIAT (INFLATABLE) MONEY, AND OPEN UP OUR ECONOMY TO COMPETING CURRENCIES INCLUDING GOLD AND SILVER.  KEEP WHAT YOU EARN AND PULL THE TEETH OF THE GLOBAL BANKING CARTEL AND THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX.  

IS THIS THE LAND OF HANDOUTS OR THE LAND OF OPPORTUNITY?!!!!!

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 22:51 | 672741 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

Very Patriotic! But, What if I am an over-skilled person who is over-looked because I am not a slimey salesman and cannot  "sell" myself?! And instead, I am street smart enough to fraud the government/people to the tune of less than the cost of my own prison sentence? What does that make me and how do you explain the government's role?

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 23:01 | 672753 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Government is not eloquence, it is not reason -- it IS FORCE!" -- George Washington

Remember, rulers have no right to do anything that you have no right to do on
your own.  If you shouldn't do it, you shouldn't ask others to do it for you.

 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 23:40 | 672803 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

In hindsight then, the g'ment will always be fiscally iresponsible and stupid with a shelf-life........i love it!

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 21:08 | 672595 DosZap
DosZap's picture

chopper,

I think you missed my point...........

The Tariffs would have stopped a NO WIN situation.

I am all for hard work, and self determination.

No one has given me shit. My point is, (WE, the GOVT), should never have allowed our Mfg base to be destroyed, because a TOP economical power on the planet at that time, was in NO position to go to a war of wages with FORCED SLAVES working for $.25 a day, or FREE.

And, that's exactly what what the Chinese did, and likely are still doing to a large degree.

Bottom line, WE worked our asses off to BE #1 back then, WE should never have allowed it to be STOLEN from us.

Plus, WE the people had no way (short of a Civil War), of stopping it.

Our corrupt fucking Gv't did it, for the same reason we are in the shape we're in now.

A GLOBAL GOVERNMENT.......................

You can't BRING people UP to high standards of living, when they live in tin shacks, and cardboard boxes,and have 2nd grade IQ.

You can only BRING the Top wage earners on the planet, DOWN to their level,or a medium in between.

That's what SOCIALISM does......................

And that, is the end goal.

 

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