on a federal retirement program that elicited some interesting
comments. It was clear to me that there is already a negative bias
toward the baby boomers. There is an understanding out there that the
boomers are going to be sucking up a great deal of resources in the next
decade or so. Some comments:
We have witnessed the unprecedented lack of fiscal responsibility from the majority "Baby Boomer" voter base.
We've met the enemy, and it is the emerging 'ruling class' pensioners of the Baby Boomer generation.
...get ready for AGE WARFARE
As if on cue, the Congressional Budget Office has thrown out some
numbers to fire up this emotive issue. The CBO report confirmed (to me)
that age warfare is in our future.
CBO looked at all of the scenarios regarding Social Security. They ran a
total of 500 simulations that reflect the different variables of the
puzzle. The analysis assumed that there would be no changes in current
law on SS. The objective of the exercise was to quantify the
probabilities of which generation would most likely not get the benefits
they were (A) paying for, (B) entitled to and (C) expecting.
The results of the CBO analysis is that there is societal/economic
trouble in front of us on this issue. It should come as no surprise to
readers that if you are young, you have a problem. The CBO report
defines which generation(s) will be hurt and by how much. I found their
conclusions to be very troubling.
If you were born in the 1940’s the probability that you will receive
100% of your scheduled benefits is nearly 100%. The people in this age
group will die before SS is forced to make cuts in scheduled benefits.
If you were born in the Sixties things still do not look so bad.
Depending on how long you will live the odds (76+%) are pretty good that
you will get all of your scheduled benefits. However, if you were born
in the Eighties you have a problem. The numbers fall off a cliff if you
are between 30 and 40 years old today. In only 13% of the possible
scenarios you will get what you are currently expecting from SS. If you
were born after 1990 you simply have no statistical chance of getting
what you are paying for. The full CBO report can be found here. This (hard to read) chart is from that report.
Sometime next year the issue of SS will have to come up. It will be
central to the recommendations from the toothless and worthless Fiscal
Commission. The results of that review and the recommendations that will
be made are already know. Payroll taxes will have to rise for both
employers and employees, the age for eligibility will raised for those
under 55 and benefits for that same group will have to reduced. If those
steps are taken the promised benefits to the baby boomers (60+) can be
met.
That can’t possibly work. How can we convince a 30-40 year
old that they should pay much more than any other generation and at the
same time get less back than their predecessors did? The boomers have a
big vote, but not that big. At some point it is inevitable that there
will be a backlash. Laws and tax policy that favor one (minority) age
group over all others have no chance of acceptance. The only question is
when and how badly it will end.
France has been ripping itself apart over a subset of this issue for the
past few weeks. America’s problems are much larger than France. We just
have not confronted ours as yet. In France they are burning cars to
vent their anger. I don’t think it will play out like that in America.
We will not burn cars. We will just grow to hate old people. Cars can be
replaced. The social consequences of age warfare will last a
very long time.
let us not forget that labor unions have run rampant in our country, driving out manufacturing at every turn. I grew up in central illinois and watched UAW union bosses in far off Detriot nearly destroy our local economy by driving local folks to the picket lines so they could finance their top heavy legal mafia.
The thuggery was sickening and did nothing to help the hardest workers who were forced to join the union, and everything to reward the laziest assholes who were happy to sit on their ass and earn $75 per hour in overtime pay.
Had Caterpillar completely folded to the UAW, Peoria may look like Detroit right now. Luckily, CAT typically employs homegrown midwesterners with conservative upbringings as middle and upper management, so the stoic protestant in them just wasn't having it.
Federal intervention in business is not the answer. I understand that cheap products can be made with slave labor, but this is not our business and, in fact, it makes our imported goods cheaper which frees up wealth for other goods and services. Empowering government to artificially raise the price of imported goods only empowers thug unions and corrupt politicians.
Most importantly, CATERPILLAR TRACTORS WILL NEVER BE MADE BY SLAVE LABOR because they take skill and technology to make, and slave labor will never be motivated to develop these skills or technology. However, the least skilled jobs may pay $9 per hour (versus $75 per hour), because this reflects reality. Anyone buying CAT tractors gets them that much cheaper, and we sell more of them.
Spare me the midwestern bullshit. Last time I checked Indiana and Michigan were in the midwest.
As for whether or not CAT can build tractors in China, I think an Iphone is a shit load more complicated than an internal combustion engine machine.
right, because the housing bubble in Peoria was so much larger than in California and Florida. there is a regional culture of fiscal conservatism in Peoria. "will it play in Peoria?"
this is common knowledge. are you denying this? how is this "bullshit", fuckwit?
Slaves don't make Iphones in China either, you dumb truck. what's your point?
Bravo!
wow .... i'm impressed, no one even junked this rant by CHOPPER READ. no one junked him because HE'S RIGHT ! I REMEMBER WHEN JOHN WAYNE WAS THE MODEL MAN HERE IN THE U.S. ............. ALL THE MEN WANTED TO BE LIKE JOHN WAYNE & THE WOMEN WANTED TO MARRY A MAN LIKE JOHN WAYNE. JOHN WAYNE WAS THE NORM HERE IN THE U.S. ........... WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED !!? (media culturalization happened)
Nobody junked him because its Chopper Read.
He's a mad aussie/scottish bastard who shoots people in the face then apologises as they twitch on the ground
+1
;)
I'll junk anybody who thinks toughness is posting in boldface on an anonymous comment board.
Raving dork. How many Senators did you lynch today?
first of all, if i lynched a senator i would have to give up my fantastic life. right now it is a velvet revolution. i've got my gold. i've got my guns. i'll be happy to use them if anyone attempts to take the former or the latter. otherwise, timing is everything. this is chess not checkers, you fucking tool.
nobody said anything about being tough. however, if you would like to put your money where your mouth is, then i will be happy to reveal my identity and challenge you in an octagon for $10,000. its right here in writing, pussy. consider it a contract with you, and a personal challenge. sort of like a dual in the old days.
are you man enough, raving dork? or is your tough talk a lot of hot air?
Divide and conquer politics as old as the hills
What we all have in common is eliminating governance politics of theft and restoring Constitutional liberties
To your first point, I think intergenerational competing interests are just a consequence of life.
I agree with your second point.
Boomer hate . Yes it is becoming a common occurence on ZH . I have shared after such a virtious post that the reason I own guns is to protect me from them . Not to worry , before the hate generation comes to power we boomers will all be dead . They will still be blaming us then . The non responsible generation. And don't buy the drivel that its the parents fault . WE ALL HAVE CHOICES HOW TO THINK . Our parents mistakes don't force us to think or behave the way we do today . CHOICES !! I will not accept blame for poor ones , nor take credit for good ones . FREE WILL
I propose a monument next to the WWII monument of a Yuppie getting screwed by a Hippie. I think that is an adequate memorial to the Baby Boomers.
It can play music, which is about the only contribution of the generation.
can they both be wearing Ipods?
what about those deficits we are hoisting onto the unborn? not your fault either?
What's important is to figure out which generations were running Washington while the deficit began to explode. In the 1980's, this was actually an older generation than the boomers. Arguably during the 1990's the boomers started to be the dominant generation in DC and are responsible for the spending.
I think that that is the real question. You have generations which borrowed exorbitant amounts of money, made nice little nest eggs for themselves at home, and are now retiring with full benefits while handing the tab to their own grandkids.
As a 35-year-old, I know it pisses me off.
About time us generation X'ers are catching on! I've hated the boomers for the last 7 years! Bad driving, Big government debt, and STUPID laws are depriving us of our freedoms and rights! We should be able to reserve the right to road test this "slow" age group every 5 years. Ironically, their collective driving is more dangerous than a "high" generation X'er!
Do you know what happens when you brainlessly trust the age group ahead of you.....you get boned. Now, depreciation of the currency to protect their lofty 401k's and house values will cause a huge decline in the quality of life. Good luck! I'm just glad I'm more prepared than my parents!
Respect for religion must be reestablished. Public debt should be reduced.
The arrogance of public officials must be curtailed. Assistance to foreign
lands must be stopped or we shall bankrupt ourselves. The people should be
forced to work and not depend on government for subsistence. - Cicero, 60 B.C.
It's been this way for millenia! So, can we count on you to NOT vote for Decepticrats or Republicons?
chet,
Sorry young man, wrong.
LBJ started the Great Society, meaning FREEBIES for all if you were in the right category.
If memory serves, the Social Security Trust Funds were until THEN in a LOCK BOX.
Johnson allowed them to access it, and use it in the GENERAL FUNDS.
BAD MISTAKE.
IOU's went in,instead of dollars................had the trillions paid put, been just invested in the MMKT, ot Treasuries, and /or Bonds, we would have a surplus that would stagger the imagination.
Johnson wasn't a Boomer..................and, there amigo is why we are in this fix now.
The bastards in D.C. got their hands into the cookine jar.
i'm a "young" boomer and I've been telling young 'uns to stiff gramps when the time comes.... The idea of running up tabs to be paid by future generations is pure WICKEDNESS and evidence of our generational/National decadence.
Sorry, I got errors.
Soylent Green is us.
Burp!
What a bunch of worrywarts!
By the time you young pups retire China Inc. will have Soylent Green in full production. Problem solved.
Eat 'em up! Bon appetit.
The generations that were around during the origination of the scam we call Social Security benefitted the most. The so-called "Greatest Generation" payed in almost nothing to SS and took out plenty. They also paid nothing into Medicare yet utilized the program enormously.
Ponzi on....
But the generations that were around at the origination of our country were smarter and better educated than we are today. Back then it was not a pillar of financial theology that a central bank was useful or beneficial. In fact, many of the top tier of American statesmen (does that term have any meaning with regard to our current crop of idiots?) had a healthy fear of a central bank. Jefferson laid out the concerns pretty clearly in a quote of his I've seen going around lately, and Andrew Jackson's signature achievement of his presidency was killing the Second Bank of the U.S.
I had a minor in history 35 years ago, but not one teacher/professor ever adequately explained the issues for and against a central bank. Not one ever explained how money is "created". I'm sure they didn't understand it themselves. I've been learning a lot lately, and have come to share Jackson's sentiments.
It's clear the central bankers got smarter. The first two Banks of the US had charters lasting only 20 years and needed renewals which they didn't get. The Fed-creating Act of Congress and the income tax constitutional amendment were both passed in 1913, thus making the entire productive capacity of the country available to be tapped for repayment of the "loans" that the Fed makes to the US govt. And it would require an act of congress to get rid of the Fed. That gets progressively harder to do since everyone is used to it, it's always "been there".
that pretty much defines the courage of your generation, doesn't it, stev3e? "Ponzi on...", he says. How brave!
That was sarcasm idiot.
stev3e, your 'sarcasm' is weak, and your life is a scam. you've ruined the country, so go fuck yourself, IDIOT. "ponzi on"! ...if its still a joke after all the years you've had to change things, then YOU are the problem.
its equivalent to Northerners in 1862 saying, "well slavery has existed for centuries before now, so 'enslave on'!".
you are a 'nazi collaborator', and you have enslaved unborn children with debt. further, you've had a lifetime to change it.
YOU'RE A FUCKING LOSER, AND I'D BE HAPPY TO KICK YOUR ASS ANY DAY, BECAUSE YOU CERTAINLY DESERVE IT, FUCKWIT.
"PONZI ON", LOSER.
Your brain is weak.
And you're such a an Internet tough guy calling people out, gonna kick some ass - I'm getting hard.
You can go outside your Octogon fantasy world and eventually wind up with a bullet hole in your head - in your case deserved.
Meanwhile, I will continue doing my part to crank the system off its wheels while losers like you talk tough, do nothing but Ponzi on.
So, if he'd said guillotine ALL people over 55, you'd be okay wit dat??
no, but i'd make an exception for stev3e, because he is a special kind of pussy, and i'm sure his children have turned out to be as big of a taking loser as he is.
"ponzi on, ha, ha" "ponzi on! ponzi on!" ...funny.
Age warefare is an important dimension, but there are others- State/local government pensioners vs. local (taxable) landowners, Net-tax sucking states vs. tax-paying states, those that pay no income tax vs. those that do, any manner of federal government sycophants vs. taxpayers, employed taxpayers vs. unemployed transfer payment recipients, cats vs. dogs, etc.
+1
each one ripe to cause a civil war in America.
these assaults on freedom, particularly as they relate to robbing those who cannot yet vote, would not be possible without the allowance of deficit spending, centrally planned money, fractional reserve lending, and faith-based (fiat) currency. All of these practices that have been created by bankers to serve bankers undermine the very foundation of liberty upon which this country was built.
Having absolutely no mandates for a balanced Federal budget simply allows for our current generations to lord over the unborn surfs of tomorrow who are predestined to toil in the fields for a fraction of the benefits.
Martin Armstrong put it this way:
Most importantly, the money is gone. I am sorry that folks have planned their lives around the promises of tyrannical central governments. I am sorry that this is a lie which everyone who has paid Social Security Tax, including myself, has chosen to believe for far too long. This does not give us a right to steal from unborn Americans simply because we chose to lie to ourselves on our very own watch.
After all, they were OUR elected officials who squandered our resources on OUR special interests. To whom should the suffering belong?
There are not enough "rich people" in America to finance well over $100 Trillion in unfunded liabilities. Our expectations defy the laws of financial physics. Only after the rich are "soaked", the unborn are shackled, and our agenda still fails will we ever discover the true culprit:
Ourselves.
We can either continue to favor our own selfish desires at the expense of our children and the sustainability of our country, or we can restore the principles of freedom and cultivate opportunity for both ourselves and future generations. A "right to a free lunch" imposes upon the rights of others with liberty as its casualty. Obviously, this will not last. After all, is America the land of handouts or the land of opportunity?
Most importantly, restoring opportunity includes reducing monopoly power at the Federal level, ending The Federal Reserve Bank, outlawing fractional reserve counterfeiting, and opening our regional economies to competing currencies including gold and silver.
Regaining control of our own wealth and resources will allow us to reclaim our country. Free trade among common folks is the only route to peace among the masses. Any attempts towards another model will be futile at best and genocidal at worst.
Well, none of these simulations include Obamacare, I am guessing. Dead boomers don't collect benefits.
Your correct, and if it stands, DEAD 30-40 yr olds won't either.
Because that's where we are being driven..........ALL of us.
My wife & I just got our health insurance set up for 2011, what was basically company provided, is now costing us 25%,because of the NEW Obama Rules.(this is going on countrywide),by design of the Obama Plan.
Boeing just announced several hundred thousand of their folks are getting it just like WE did.
TIP of the iceberg.
The funds for this program would be easily made up if we did away with Gov't GIFTING to foreign countries, stopped the untold billions to 501C4's, and free care to all NON Americans.
( Stop and think, I mean it's MIND boggling!).
And this has been going on for longer than ANY of us here, have been alive.There has to be a BOOT on the neck of the Feds, to stop the insanity.
We, are brothers and sisters, Dad's & Mom's, GP & GM's, eating each other....OUR eyes are OFF the reaL CULPRITS, AND TARGET, IT'S CALLED WASHINGTON D.C.
I live in a suburb of DFW.ONE county hospital in 2008 (DALLAS) wrote off 700 million dollars for services rendered to illegals.
(folks that's damn near a BILLION dollars,one year,one hospital.)
So much waste and abuse is done with our tax dollars it's a sin.
Look at the latest, NPR deal,Soros funded, taxpayer funded,to what?, bring us into Socialism. We are being raped,and giving billions to people who seek our destruction.
Until we get a balanced budget, and tax breaks to a BARE minimum, and funds paid out of our paychecks(into INTEREST bearing accounts),we have no chance.
That is, IF we LIVE as a nation through the HELL headed our way globally.
And especially locally.
This entire "PROJECTIONS SCHEDULE", may very well be a waste of time,mere semantics, a shell game for all of us.
ALL.
Don't Listen to what "they" say, Watch what "they" do.
The bulk of NPR funding comes from programming fees, grants, contributions and sponsorships. Virtually none of their money comes from the federal government, like it did in the '70s and 80s. They get a very tiny bit from the federal funding of Corporation for Public Broadcasting grants (local member stations get about 10% of their funding from that and NPR gets 1.5% of its revenue from CPB grants).
One weakens their arguments when they can't get simple facts straight.
Sp00ky,
+10^23
These anti NPR folks are positively wacko.
+ 14,000,000,000,000,000
+1
I am young, but I am scared to take the H1N1 flu shot....I'll take my chances on contracting the real thing & dying. People seem to have forgotten about "Agent Orange."
I'm not sure I'd be worrying about that.
Look around you. What they need is a wider base on the pyramid. Smart people are fearful of breeding right now, the dumb & dependent are not.
In fact the d&d's will use the expansion of their families to get more bennies from Barack.
Nice research Bruce. There are many ways that this report could get even uglier. There are many working people who are on the welfare threshold but too proud to file the paperwork.
What happens when they realize what the future holds and give up, quit working and file the papers.
back before empty state promises, children were retirement. folks could not grow old without them and spent a lifetime experiencing infant deaths and child rearing at the exclusion of leisure. now-a-days, folks forgo the heavy lifting, trade children for leisure, and naively expect the government to keep empty promises.
Logan's Run - let's force those who are retired to do the Iron Man - and anyone who survives can have benefits - for a whole year - till the next race.
This is great!... until you're Logan. Actually, I would go for this system as long as I could opt out at any time.