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New Home Sales At 276K On Expectations Of 330K, Previous 315K; Prices Drop

Tyler Durden's picture




 

First existing, now new home sales: 276K (yes a record low) on expectations of 330K, and a revised prior of 315K - a drop of 12.4% MoM. And, even worse, prices are dropping as deflation rages: the Home Price Index down 0.3% on expectations of a 0.1% increase (and previously at 0.5%). Months of supply: 9.1. Stick a fork in it.

From the Census Bureau:

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 276,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.4 percent (±10.8%) below the revised June rate of 315,000 and is 32.4 percent (±8.7%) below the July 2009 estimate of 408,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2010 was $204,000; the average sales price was $235,300. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 210,000. This represents a supply of 9.1 months at the current sales rate.

 

 

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Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:07 | 542779 Herne the Hunter
Herne the Hunter's picture

Asset price deflation, bitchez!

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:25 | 543004 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

TD, hate to be a pest, but is it possible to get a 5 year and a historical chart going way back. 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:28 | 543197 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

http://www.census.gov/const/newressales_200507.pdf

 


Sales of new one-family houses in July 2005 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,410,000, according

to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban


Development. This is 6.5 percent (±11.2%)


 

*

above the revised June rate of 1,324,000 and is 27.7 percent

(±17.2%) above the July 2004 estimate of 1,104,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2005 was $203,800; the average sales price was $275,000. The

seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 460,000. This represents a supply of

4.0 months at the current sales rate.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:07 | 542780 CosmoJoe
CosmoJoe's picture

Haha.. even the idiots at Marketwatch are at a loss for how to spin this one.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 14:26 | 543633 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

"Clearly houses are spontaneously uprooting themselves," said K. McSpenderson of Bubble Realty. "It just reflects the difficulty in counting a migratory housing environment." He went on to say, "Once our experts have adapted to counting migratory herds of homes grazing the landscape for building materials, we expect these numbers to return to normal."

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 19:57 | 544641 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Ernie Kovaks would be proud of you!

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:07 | 542782 Who else is fro...
Who else is from Prussia's picture

Ya a pitchfork !

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:07 | 542785 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

The PPT was fully prepared for these numbers.  Holy shit, what a stick save at 1040.

 

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:22 | 542839 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That was an amazing save there.  The Fed had to just lose a few billion dollars on that one.  I would love to see the Fed get audited on their holdings and see how many index contracts they are truely holding. 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 13:03 | 543323 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

To hell with that -- audit Fort Knox.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:25 | 542856 chirobliss
chirobliss's picture

Absobloodylutely!!  A quick Dow 50 point smack upside the head, take out a few dozen more shorts and remove a little more underpinning to this house of cards.  I remember the good ole days when long term investing meant 20 minutes.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:28 | 542862 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

Yeah that was quite the snapback. They seem to be having a bit more trouble pushing up the Dow through 10k though. Half an hour since the report came out and still sitting just below.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:34 | 542876 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

It could be intentional - keep it just below 10k, and then in the final minutes, "rally" above to a "strong finish".

Enough of a reason for a fake rally tomorrow.

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:38 | 542890 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

 there is also the possibility that 1040 as a key support held (as it support sometimes does)and traders jumped in . 10,000 broke though, so the general trend is obviously down. what is the point of the FED reinforcing these support levels if they will just break eventually anyway....just thoughts

 

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:01 | 542947 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

barkingbill:

"what is the point of the FED reinforcing these support levels..."

It has to be the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.  Don't know if they can keep it all together until that time.

- Ned

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:47 | 543073 DarkAgeAhead
DarkAgeAhead's picture

Hey Ned.  Man, I hope they can.  I have big stuff a doing in October!  This will be closer than I'd like!

The better odds are looking like they won't be able to.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 16:05 | 544029 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Dark, I'm sorta' hoping, got some family conversations to complete and, well, "I'm not offering any investment advice.  Have you seen ...?"

you know how it is, and yes I'm not thinking it lasts that long.

- Ned

[edit: #542001 ;-) ]

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:08 | 542787 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

QE2.0 in 3-2-1...

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:08 | 542973 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

EXACTLY! So buy stocks! Rally the market back to even on the day! All will be well! 

What a fucking joke...

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 16:10 | 544084 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

I fully expect some kind of "cash in the lucite grab box" moment coming out of Jackson Hole. Think we'll ramp up back to the 10,300 area on the Dow before taking a nice swan dive back down.

Still think the market is going to tank, it is just the timing that'll get ya.

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:08 | 542788 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

Did any1 sow how USD/JPY skyrock? wander if BOJ got involved.

I would assume USD would be down

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:08 | 542790 CosmoJoe
CosmoJoe's picture

PPT re-enacting the Alamo to claw back DOW10k.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:09 | 542793 Woland
Woland's picture

So, why is volatility still so low (?)

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:17 | 542824 sunny
sunny's picture

As I type VIX is at 0.85  VIX only goes up when there is volatility.  If the market just sinks (stinks?) and moves in one direction, it ain't volatile. 

sunny

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:09 | 542796 peripatetic86
peripatetic86's picture

Dow 12,000!!!!

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:13 | 542812 old_turk
old_turk's picture

12K?

 

More like DOW 36,000!!!

 

Of course, that'll require re-indexing but the PPT will get it done!

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:10 | 542798 torquinus
torquinus's picture

shouldn't even be called an equities market anymore. Total dysfunction in every market.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:11 | 542801 emsolý
emsolý's picture

veritably, a summer of recovery. can't wait for the season finale...

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:04 | 542963 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Recovery Summer!  Gotta have the bang there ! - Ned

http://www.google.com/search?q=recovery+summer!&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&client=firefox-a&rlz=1R1MOZA_en___US368#q=recovery+summer!&hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=sqc&rlz=1R1MOZA_en___US368&prmd=nv&source=univ&tbs=nws:1&tbo=u&ei=ZjB1TNzeJ4K88gaC8ZjnBg&sa=X&oi=news_group&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CCAQsQQwAA&fp=7db4f7af4a13aa89

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:11 | 542803 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Well we now know why brian sack is not at Jackson Hole. 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:11 | 542982 mephisto
mephisto's picture

Good poinnt. He is the one with administrator access.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:12 | 542806 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

Jackson Hole Fed statement: "Investors! There's quantitative easing down there!"

 

http://www.gifbin.com/bin/320sw0sw7847.gif

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:12 | 542808 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Yup, here they are pumpin' the old fraud street casino up this morning. Just sickening.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:13 | 542811 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

...and the market goes up?....now I have seen it all.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:15 | 542819 old_turk
old_turk's picture

 

:-)

Welcome to the Matrix.

The number was better than the 'whisper' number, of course!

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:48 | 542910 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"...and the market goes up?....now I have seen it all."

 

again and again and again and again....

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:13 | 542814 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

And the Church Lady says: Who saved SPU 1040?? Could it be,,,,,Satan?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:21 | 542835 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

And isn't that special..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmwqnqL3Hbg

 

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:23 | 542847 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

+1

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:18 | 543180 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture
Satan is going on vacation and needs a replacement

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKBnN8i-tfk&feature=search

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:14 | 542818 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

NSA estimated sales (contracts): 25K (per report)

That's 500 contracts per state.

With a 50% rejection rate/inability to find financing, that leaves 250 new homes per state.

8.3 months of NEW inventory, over 16 months when combined with all existing inventory. Add in REO inventory being witheld from the market plus foreclosures stuck in the moritorium/holding pattern and we easily have a 30 month supply pending. In the hardest hit states we already have 30+year supplies of buildable (prepared) lots in many regions.

Put that all together, roll into a recovery doobie and smoke that. The Fed can not cure "oversupply" problems nor the issue of a lack of demand due to deteriorating net wages and income.

Time to do the Zimbabwe Depression Shuffle...sing it gang.....

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:19 | 542829 redpill
redpill's picture

In a couple weeks I'll have hard numbers for most of those estimates, they are probably not far off...

 

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:28 | 542861 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Less than 2,000 new sales of homes $400K plus per the report. That means we're seeing the top end and non-conforming deteriorate rapidly. I'll bet the under $417K drops off after the contracts are closed out from the tax credit this month and we'll see sub 250,000 SAAR in August and September.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:44 | 542900 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Exactly.  All those million dollar plus boxes of ticky tacky in New Yawk and Cali will fall off the face of the earth..., one way or another.  Let's see how Comrade Ben hides another few trillion of real, honest to god losses on just about every asset class. 

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:02 | 542950 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Ben is going to have to block FASB on Jan 1 to even have a prayer of saving his banks unless they are planning insulating the Primary Dealers at Jackson Hole and letting the Community Banks and weak sister Regionals be laid waste so they can be scooped up and large mega banks permitted to "save our nation" or some other such bullcrap.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:28 | 543012 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

The scummy fucks do enjoy consolidation.  Too big to fail?  Pfffttt...apparently, we were just at the threshold of that size.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 22:37 | 544943 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

That would be some pretty out in the open stuff.  You called it here if they do. 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:08 | 542971 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Exactly. This is the same pattern that's played out throughout the Housing industry.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/vancouver-home-sales-...

Housing Collapse Cascade Pattern

  • Volume drops precipitously
  • Prices soften a bit
  • Inventory levels rise slowly
  • High-end home prices remain relatively steady for a brief while longer
  • The real estate industry tries to convince everyone it's "business as usual" and homes are affordable because rates are low
  • Bubble denial kicks in with media articles everywhere touting the "fundamentals"
  • Stubborn sellers hold out for last year's prices as volume continues to shrink
  • Inventory levels reach new highs
  • Builders start offering huge incentives to clear inventory
  • Some sellers finally realize (too late) what is happening
  • Price declines hit the high-end
  • Increasingly desperate sellers get creative with incentives, offering new cars, below market interest rates, trips, etc
  • Gimmicks do not work
  • Price declines escalate sharply at all price levels
  • The Central Bank issues statements that housing is fundamentally sound
  • Prices collapse, inventory skyrockets, and builders holding inventory go bankrupt

The article goes on more about Canada as well.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:10 | 542976 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

The funny thing nobody wants to talk about in states like AZ, CA, FL, NV, etc....

What to do with the 20-30 year supply of buildable lots (prepped) sitting there with streets, slabs, and plumbed just rotting away....

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:25 | 542991 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Back in the 1930's, we had the Hooverville's of Tent Cities.

We've made progress. Now we have cities with full tents and cities of empty houses.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:18 | 542826 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh, here's the angle:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-house-prices-climb-in-second-quarter...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. house prices rose in the second quarter of 2010 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index, the first rise since the second quarter of 2007. The HPI, calculated using home sales price information from Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages, was 0.9% higher on a seasonally adjusted basis in the second quarter than in the first quarter of 2010. On a monthly basis, prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in June.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:22 | 542841 redpill
redpill's picture

Most of the second quarter was still on the tax credit juice.  Note at the end that prices tailed off in June again.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:22 | 542842 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

That's Fannie and Freddie's new job...keep prices elevated (as opposed to previously making it cheaper). Don't want the value of those MBS to collapse (though in reality they probably have).

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:30 | 543021 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

Hahaha, which will only serve to make the real returns on those MBS's even worse.  This is what those cranks get for trying to manipulate natural market forces...a double-handful of shit.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:25 | 542855 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

<s>Oh it all makes sense.  Those numbers out of Fannie and Freddie (Kruger) are quite accurate.  They are not under the thumb of the government to make things look better....</s>

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:22 | 542840 Alex Lionson
Alex Lionson's picture

Dear Tyler, do you by chance have that nice graph on Option-Arms resetting schedule. Would it be worth refreshing the picture?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:27 | 543200 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

The low interest rates are the only sign of "less bad" here for that Option-ARMS reset schedule... the number of refis is skyrocketing according to NAHB stats.

 

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:24 | 542848 Truth
Truth's picture

Bernanke may be doing a helicopter drop this Friday from Jackson Hole.  He may just have enough political (with the media working it with all the negativity being spun out, see housing data) to pull it off!  Short squeeze may commence big time!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernankes-helicopter-could-move-to-new-...

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:26 | 542857 Alex Lionson
Alex Lionson's picture

Yes, right, the probability of that happening seems to be high...

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:27 | 542860 peripatetic86
peripatetic86's picture

Such a move is not guaranteed to be a positive for equities.  It may cause a short term uptick but such actions only act to exacerbate the underlying fundamental issues in the market and the country at large so I would not be surprised to see a more elongated move to the downside once September begins.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:36 | 542880 Truth
Truth's picture

last time it happened there was 90% run up in our stock market.  But then again the market was so oversold in March '09.  Things are pretty oversold now but nowhere near as they were then.  Part of me thinks it would be premature for Ben to make a move this Friday.  Damnit, maybe an options stradle play is in order on the SPY and silver (SLV)......

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:46 | 542904 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

Damned if they do. Damned if they don't.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:34 | 542875 Alitak
Alitak's picture

Market Watch have caught themselves on 'plunge' has been corrected to 'fall' !

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:34 | 542877 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

This is absolutely ridiculous. Nobody gives a rats 4ss whether new home sales, old home sales, existing home sales or non-existing home sales are up or down.

My question is : what are people doing with their money if they are not buying homes ?

Saving ? Excellent !

Buying Apple PC´s and GM cars ? Excelllent ! Going on vacation ? Excellent !

Fact is : there is more money in the economy than ever before !

It just waits to be spent.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:44 | 543064 CoverYourBasis11
CoverYourBasis11's picture

Exactly.... Waiting.

I think good chance that business are generally anti-obama

and are "punishing" liberals for there recently passed legislation 

to stem any more last minute push through legislation.

After Nov, I expect business to spend..They have refi'd corporate debt,

have spent some money on infrastructure..then wait until Nov to "reward"

the public.....However, if that fails to show up/happen...Its over man.

Seriously, ammo and canned goods.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:16 | 543169 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

"Fact is : there is more money in the economy than ever before !"

Forgive me for feeding this troll. But lest some naive fool actually believe this guy, all one has to do is look at M3 to see how very wrong he is. The Money supply has been collapsing for a while:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts

There is far less money in the economy than well before the housing bubble.

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:41 | 542898 goldfreak
Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:28 | 543014 reading
reading's picture

funny, on not one place in that chart are new home sales lower than the recession low when we have "moved out" of the recession.  Makes you wonder...

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:44 | 542899 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Just woke up - turned on the TV. I like to toggle between CNBC and Bloomberg for a few minutes, and then I go to Zero Hedge, of course.

This morning was a funny -

 

CNBC Guest: "People don't realize that waiting for a bottom in housing could be a real mistake.  You have to factor in these low rates.  If these rates tick up, you are going to see people rushing back in to housing." (paraphrasing)

 

Bloomberg Interview of Cor Logistics:  "These home sales reports are bad.  We are very concerned.  No incentive for buyers to step into this market.

 

OH, CNBC also highlites TOLL...again.  Who over at CNBC is getting a regularly scheduled rim job from Bob Toll?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:56 | 542936 goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

one clown on PBS I heard yesterday said "we're very close to the bottom"

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:30 | 543018 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Technically, the clown is correct.  We're very close to the bottom.  The problem is that the sides of the hole are vertical and made of glass.  And coated with PAM.  And there's some toxic gas building up too...

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:33 | 543026 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

We sure are, and we're about to break out the mining drills when we get there.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:31 | 543207 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Any drug addict will confirm that hitting bottom is easy. Staying there is the norm and there is a whole lot of miserable "sideways" at the bottom and nearly zero chance of anything up.

And then you die.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 13:24 | 543380 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Every "bottom" has a trap-door.  One can always go lower with the right trip mechanism.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:55 | 542932 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Sure, new home sales are down and prices are down, but there's a story out today that refi activity is up, so everything's bright and rosy! (/sarcasm)

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:05 | 542965 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Sure, new home sales are down and prices are down, but there's a story out today that refi activity is up, so everything's bright and rosy! (/sarcasm)

 

Of course, that pool of eligible borrowers has turned into a puddle.  I always struggle to find that litlle tidbit being reported.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:12 | 542985 old_turk
old_turk's picture

I am in the process of re-fi as I type.  Asked the local banker (he's been running the mortgage biz for nearly 30 years) how's business?

He says, business is booming!!  For re-fi only, seeing some 'new' money activity but not much.  They are busier now then in April.

He also says that until the unregulated part of the mortgage business get regulated ... there's more trouble coming.  The 'liar' or NINJA loans are still being made and done mainly over on the unregulated side ... the banks have all had to tighten and become squeaky clean (or at least that's his story).

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:33 | 543011 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Yeah, business is booming - twice the work, half the volume.  And volume is directly related to regulation as you can only push volume so hard before the regulatory hairball clogs the pipe.

I have no idea what your banker is referring to when they say that there is an "unregulated side of the business doing NINJA loans."  I would be very curious to know where he/she is seeing that.  Private money lenders?  If you are applying for a loan from one of the GSE's no such thing - and any private label has already followed suit.

No disrespect intended, but the level of knowledge amongst anyone on the origination side of mortgage banking is woefully deficient.  I would vet anything you are told.  Again, no disrespect intended. btw - rates dropped again. :-)

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:35 | 543036 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

Maybe the local check-cashing joints are issuing mortgages now?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:10 | 543145 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

There are private lenders that make non-conforming mortgage loans.

If u don't pay they take the house & your kneecaps.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:30 | 543020 reading
reading's picture

Where are you?  The application business might be booming but the closings are definitely hard to come by.  

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:41 | 543057 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"Where are you?  The application business might be booming but the closings are definitely hard to come by."

I was just going to edit my post - funny. You are spot on - the application process is booming!  I have a very high closing rate because I am retail and can pref light perspective clients before taking application.  My spouse, otoh, is a regional manager for a mid size pass through wholesale lender.  Their decline rate is almost 50%.  twice the work, twice the volume, in her case.  Thank god I am a good cook and masseuse - she really needs it! 

 

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:57 | 543111 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Village Idiot

I didn't know you where a loan officer/mortgage broker.  Earlier this month, I did a no-cost refi with Wells Fargo (had the loan there already and they offered).  I went from 5.25% to 5.125% with no costs on my 30-year (will save $26/mo.).  I noticed that Mish had a post on something similar the JP Morgan Chase was offering one of his readers.  Do you think we'll see more of this?  Do you have any words of advice on this product?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:36 | 543191 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Hi Cursive,

"no cost" refi's used to be a mainstay everywhere.  The no cost aspect is a function of how much of a rebate is being offered for a particular rate.  In your case, 5.125% had a corresponding rebate of money that your lender was using to pay closing costs on your behalf.  The fact that they were your servicing lender at the time had nothing to do with it.  Granted, they had a somewhat lower cost structure because they were already servicing the loan, but that's it.

No cost refi's were eliminated for the most part when originators started churning loans for those rebates, which could run as high as 5% of the loan amount-if the borrower took the corresponding (read:high) rate.

Recently, the no cost refi has returned. And you can go anywhere for this.  btw, you may want to consider refinancing with someone in your area, again.  I just recently quoted 4.5% on a 30 year fixed - no cost.  Depending on loan size, your final rate could be slightly higher or lower.  Hope this helps.

EDIT: In response to your question about whether no cost will continue as a trend - with a much smaller pool of qualified borrowers, dowside pressure on values, and continued gov't intervention, I think the product will be around for a while.  However, there are regulations coming down the pike in April(?) 2011 that will have a dramatic impact on how the borrowing public is quoted.  I will find the new reulations and post them.  IMO - the legislation as written will not be good for borrowers or originators, and may eliminate a borrowers option to choose a "no cost loan".  Good intentions - poor execution.  What else is new?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:43 | 543248 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Village Idiot

Thanks!  I used to use Priceline/EverBank of Florida for all of my past no cost refis.  I don't think Priceline/EverBank is still in the biz.  I've tried some of the sites that Dr. Guttentag recommended, but I find them all disappointing.  Would love to know of any wholesale lenders or brokers that you could recommend for a no cost loan quote (if you are available, I'm interested).  Wife and I have 800 FICO's and I've never missed a payment.  I am changing jobs, though, so that could present some problems.  Look forward to your post on the new regs and any recommendations you have!

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 13:19 | 543334 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Thank you, Cursive.  Finding a lender is tough these days.  There is the ever present issue of trust, and, the lenders ability to perform in a timely fashion.

That being said, you could ask around for a referral.  Usually, the best referrals are loan originators who have built their (long!) reputation by word of mouth. This type of originator has a built in obligation to price competitively as well as perform.  Otherwise, they won't be getting another referral.

I have repetedly offered advice on this site regarding mortgage financing, but have made it clear that I DON'T want the business.  I am sympathetic to the situation though. If you are comfortable volunteering which State you live in, I may be able to give you a name or two.

Edit: Got to run, but I will check back later. Thanks.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 14:47 | 543735 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Village Idiot

Louisiana.  Where I am, no one in town does competitive deals.  There is a lot of "relationship" banking here, so the best deals are reserved for people with sizable assets or profitable businesses.  I am basically two hours away from either Baton Rouge or Shreveport and an hour away from Lafayette.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 20:47 | 544759 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Cursive,

No connections in your area, sorry.  I would suggest that you contact a few of the big banks - BofA, Wells, Citi, and get competing quotes.  I would be happy to provide some of the buzz words that may get you better rates, and review the offers. If you are interested, let me know. I will check back here tomorrow.  take care.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 23:46 | 545049 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@VI

Thanks.  I'm going to put this on hold until I start my new job on 8/30 and the new loan funds on 8/31/10.  I'll look for you in the comments section.  Do you think the new job will present a problem?  My income is going to basically double, but it could be a month before I have two paystubs and I was previously an independent contractor.

Thu, 08/26/2010 - 00:13 | 545087 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

There's no problem changing jobs as long as no big change in profession and you still qualify. Even then, you can explain the change away in a letter.    Are you saying that you are about to close on the rate you were discussing in a previous post?  The 5.something?

Thu, 08/26/2010 - 00:18 | 545094 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Cursive, I just went back and it looks like you are about to close on a loan over 5%.  If you are, stop.  Let's talk.  If I misread your post, my bad.

Thu, 08/26/2010 - 10:02 | 545614 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I did the "close at home" and all of Wells Fargo's no cost loans are set to fund on 8/31.  They said I could refi again after I close the loan (I checked and there are no prepayment penalties on the new mortgage).  To contact me further, send me an email to plx442 at gmail.com.  I really appreciate your advice.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 16:53 | 544228 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I'm curious, why would you want to re-set your mortgage back to 30 years for $26 a month?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 19:02 | 544536 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@ElvisDog

Good question.  I'm a serial mover.  I was only 1 year into the current mortgage, so adding another year for a house I might own for another 5 years at most is a no-brainer for me.  You don't start building serious equity until year 12 on a 30-year mortgage.  I couldn't rent this house for anything less than $1300 (possibly as high as $1700), but my note is $955.  If I could knock another $75 to $100 off of that....

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 10:59 | 542939 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

What better time for a homebuilder rally.

Makes sense.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:11 | 542984 Thucydides
Thucydides's picture

Someone on CNBS in the comments to Cramer's "Obama needs to step up" compiled these Cramer comments since april

 

April 13
Investors shouldn't wait for employment to come back before buying stocks, because there will be many significant moves in the market before then. TARP was a success and we are 6 months away from seeing genuine prosperity.

April 14
Take the money out of stocks, and keep it in cash or equivalents so you can sleep comfortably at night The worst markets make the best buying opportunities, chance to buy stocks at Dow 8,000 is a great opportunity that may never see again. Final suggestion for investing in bad markets is to avoid calling a bottom.

April 15
Bearish barricades were nothing more than canards, fabrications that don’t hold up against the facts of this market. Bad news for the euro and Greece is good news for US. Get in at a better price than you should be able to, on the Dow 12,000 freeway

April 26
It's because of Greece the market is going higher

May 7
Don't buy any stocks until DOW 9000. Dow’s decline was natural result of Europe’s debt and the riots in Greece. Investors should wait for the decline before they buy anything again

May 10
European debt contagion no longer a risk, call to halt most stock buying until Dow 9,000 is off. That’s the new reality, buy stocks now, the crisis is done, this is the real deal, just focus on how oversold stocks are right now

May 12
Pay reductions and job cuts for civil service employees will result in a jump-start in spending in the stronger European Union

May 19
If we don’t see total capitulation in Europe over the next two days, US market’s going to go higher.

May20
It hasn’t come down enough to make buying compelling. We are still not down enough.

May 24
We just aren’t strong enough to withstand a Greek default

May 25
Will the Dow Plummet to 8,260? That's the worst case scenario. Don’t give up, too much good is happening

June 4
Dow would go to 9,500 if Europe holds and 8,260 if it doesn’t

June 8
Why We Won’t Revisit Dow 6,500. We do need to worry. It is the stock market, not the economy, that is the problem today. There's just too much good, too many opportunities and too many things going right to see those levels again.

June 29
Markets will fall to Dow 9,700, where stocks will become considerably cheap. Therefore, readying the shopping list, meaning investors should be prepared to buy. Distinguish between what the market's reflecting and the actual reality. Because the reality is actually much stronger than the stocks would indicate.

July 12
With five out of the six worries now out of the way, last week’s 5% rally was totally and absolutely justified. And that means the hyper-negativity that has permeated this market is no longer in synch with the facts. I think we’ve seen the lows for the year, and I am a buyer, particularly if we get any pullback of 3% to 5%.

July 14
Don’t Wait for US Recovery to Buy Stocks. Cramer doesn’t want his viewers to wait that long to buy stocks. So tonight he begged them to catch this train and get in before the big move. Because if they miss it, he said, “I’ll feel sorry for you.”

July 16
The market was so overbought, he said, stocks couldn't realistically continue to climb. Every stock, he noted, regardless of earnings went down in lockstep.

August 18th
Don’t be scared off by misleading arguments. The simple reality is you don't get a crash with low interest rates, good profits and robust worldwide economies. http://www.cnbc.com/id/38741755

August 23rd
Cramer Sees ‘Very Negative’ Trend in Market. The trend started in tech, spread to retail and now has entered the food sector. It is “a very negative development"

August 24th
The markets will continue to push lower until leadership steps forward to inspire confidence that things will get better. Until President Obama renews our faith in stocks, no rally will be sustainable.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:36 | 543041 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

August 25th

Markets rises on Cramer negative indicator; housing stats be damned.

(Don't people know that by this point he'd using reverse psychology?)

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 11:49 | 543087 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

Reading chicken entrails would provide a better market strategy than listening to a fuckwad like Cramer.  If he were in air traffic control, every plane would either overshoot the runway or auger-in about fifty miles short.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:12 | 543153 redpill
redpill's picture

It's amazing how consistently wrong he is given how frequently he contradicts himself.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 16:57 | 544241 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

That sounds a little like the sports gambling scam where half the callers are given one outcome and the other half are given the other outcome. Maybe Cramer does this so in the future he can claim to "have called it" no matter what the future is?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:17 | 543178 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

Twice as many new homes were permitted in July as were sold...
http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE TUESDAY, AUGUST 17, 2010 AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
CB10-122
Erica Filipek or Stephen Cooper
Manufacturing and Construction Division
(301) 763-5160

NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN JULY 2010
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential
construction statistics for July 2010:

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 565,000
. This is 3.1
percent (±2.0%) below the revised June rate of 583,000 and is 3.7 percent (±2.2%) below the July 2009 estimate of 587,000.
Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 416,000; this is 1.2 percent (±1.2%)* below the revised June figure of 421,000.
Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 129,000 in July.

HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000.
This is 1.7 percent (±9.7%)* above the
U.S. Census Bureau News
Joint Release
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of Commerce Washington, D.C. 20233
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000. This is 1.7 percent (±9.7%) above the
revised June estimate of 537,000, but is 7.0 percent (±7.5%)* below the July 2009 rate of 587,000.
Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 432,000; this is 4.2 percent (±8.7%)* below the revised June figure of 451,000.
The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 95,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000.
This is 32.8 percent (±6.8%) below
the revised June estimate of 874,000 and is 25.4 percent (±7.3%) below the July 2009 rate of 787,000.
Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 490,000; this is 27.5 percent (±7.6%) below the revised June rate of
676,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 91,000.

New Residential Construction data for August 2010 will be released on Tuesday, September 21, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
Our Internet site is: http://www.census.gov/newresconst

EXPLANATORY NOTES
In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular.
It may take 3 months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, 3 months for total starts, and 5 months for total completions. The statistics in
this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response,
nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent
(±3.2%) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for
percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it
does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence
intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing starts and housing
completions are revised about two percent or less. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our web site listed above.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
http://www.census.gov/newresconst
U.S. Census Bureau News
Joint Release
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of Commerce Washington, D.C. 20233
http://www.census.gov/newresconst
U.S. Census Bureau News
Joint Release
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of Commerce Washington, D.C. 20233

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 13:15 | 543351 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

It's nice to know that we're now propping up the construction of ghost towns while people are living in boxes and tents.  Makes just about as much sense as anything else in the economy these days.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 13:33 | 543407 minus dog
minus dog's picture

A lot of those ghost towns will be occupied eventually.  Occupied not being the same as sold, of course.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:25 | 543195 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Who besides me thinks we're ripe for a flashCrash today? Maybe early afternoon NY time. I don't think anyone wants to go into the weekend holding any positions, the algos have been fibrillating of late. Ready to rip.

Just a total wild-ass guess. I got nuth'n. Flame away, if that's yer predilection.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:30 | 543206 redpill
redpill's picture

Weekend?  It's only Wednesday.  Are you French?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:48 | 543266 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

We unwind sloooowly when we are this fragile. It's like defusing a bomb, takes forever.

I am not either French. Rather, I am an animal.

 

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 12:53 | 543286 theanalogkid
theanalogkid's picture

Why is this surprising at all? There's too many houses out there, and the prices of houses are correcting for their overinflated values in the past few years. Banks also don't want to lend to many people these days, and even if they did why would they want to lend someone money for a house when they know the value of the house is going to decline some more? There's already enough negative equity homeowners in the US.

Best of all as home values decline, housing becomes more affordable for a lot more people than it did while the housing bubble was still happening. Isn't that what the governmnet wanted anyway, people to live in homes rather than rent?

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 14:02 | 543518 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Good thing housing isn't important to our economy.

Oh, wait...

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Herry12's picture

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Thu, 09/30/2010 - 04:11 | 614913 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Keep it up, shitbag. I don't care how many proxies seperate you between the fuckup account you are posting from - you are going down, douchebag.

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