New Home Sales At 276K On Expectations Of 330K, Previous 315K; Prices Drop

Tyler Durden's picture

First existing, now new home sales: 276K (yes a record low) on expectations of 330K, and a revised prior of 315K - a drop of 12.4% MoM. And, even worse, prices are dropping as deflation rages: the Home Price Index down 0.3% on expectations of a 0.1% increase (and previously at 0.5%). Months of supply: 9.1. Stick a fork in it.

From the Census Bureau:

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 276,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.4 percent (±10.8%) below the revised June rate of 315,000 and is 32.4 percent (±8.7%) below the July 2009 estimate of 408,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2010 was $204,000; the average sales price was $235,300. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 210,000. This represents a supply of 9.1 months at the current sales rate.


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Herne the Hunter's picture

Asset price deflation, bitchez!

Ragnarok's picture

TD, hate to be a pest, but is it possible to get a 5 year and a historical chart going way back. 

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture


Sales of new one-family houses in July 2005 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,410,000, according

to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban

Development. This is 6.5 percent (±11.2%)



above the revised June rate of 1,324,000 and is 27.7 percent

(±17.2%) above the July 2004 estimate of 1,104,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2005 was $203,800; the average sales price was $275,000. The

seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 460,000. This represents a supply of

4.0 months at the current sales rate.

CosmoJoe's picture

Haha.. even the idiots at Marketwatch are at a loss for how to spin this one.

TraderTimm's picture

"Clearly houses are spontaneously uprooting themselves," said K. McSpenderson of Bubble Realty. "It just reflects the difficulty in counting a migratory housing environment." He went on to say, "Once our experts have adapted to counting migratory herds of homes grazing the landscape for building materials, we expect these numbers to return to normal."


StychoKiller's picture

Ernie Kovaks would be proud of you!

101 years and counting's picture

The PPT was fully prepared for these numbers.  Holy shit, what a stick save at 1040.



firstdivision's picture

That was an amazing save there.  The Fed had to just lose a few billion dollars on that one.  I would love to see the Fed get audited on their holdings and see how many index contracts they are truely holding. 

RockyRacoon's picture

To hell with that -- audit Fort Knox.

chirobliss's picture

Absobloodylutely!!  A quick Dow 50 point smack upside the head, take out a few dozen more shorts and remove a little more underpinning to this house of cards.  I remember the good ole days when long term investing meant 20 minutes.

Biggvs's picture

Yeah that was quite the snapback. They seem to be having a bit more trouble pushing up the Dow through 10k though. Half an hour since the report came out and still sitting just below.

EscapeKey's picture

It could be intentional - keep it just below 10k, and then in the final minutes, "rally" above to a "strong finish".

Enough of a reason for a fake rally tomorrow.


barkingbill's picture

 there is also the possibility that 1040 as a key support held (as it support sometimes does)and traders jumped in . 10,000 broke though, so the general trend is obviously down. what is the point of the FED reinforcing these support levels if they will just break eventually anyway....just thoughts



New_Meat's picture


"what is the point of the FED reinforcing these support levels..."

It has to be the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.  Don't know if they can keep it all together until that time.

- Ned

DarkAgeAhead's picture

Hey Ned.  Man, I hope they can.  I have big stuff a doing in October!  This will be closer than I'd like!

The better odds are looking like they won't be able to.

New_Meat's picture

Dark, I'm sorta' hoping, got some family conversations to complete and, well, "I'm not offering any investment advice.  Have you seen ...?"

you know how it is, and yes I'm not thinking it lasts that long.

- Ned

[edit: #542001 ;-) ]

EscapeKey's picture

QE2.0 in 3-2-1...

Turd Ferguson's picture

EXACTLY! So buy stocks! Rally the market back to even on the day! All will be well! 

What a fucking joke...

TraderTimm's picture

I fully expect some kind of "cash in the lucite grab box" moment coming out of Jackson Hole. Think we'll ramp up back to the 10,300 area on the Dow before taking a nice swan dive back down.

Still think the market is going to tank, it is just the timing that'll get ya.


PicassoInActions's picture

Did any1 sow how USD/JPY skyrock? wander if BOJ got involved.

I would assume USD would be down

CosmoJoe's picture

PPT re-enacting the Alamo to claw back DOW10k.

Woland's picture

So, why is volatility still so low (?)

sunny's picture

As I type VIX is at 0.85  VIX only goes up when there is volatility.  If the market just sinks (stinks?) and moves in one direction, it ain't volatile. 


old_turk's picture



More like DOW 36,000!!!


Of course, that'll require re-indexing but the PPT will get it done!

torquinus's picture

shouldn't even be called an equities market anymore. Total dysfunction in every market.

emsolý's picture

veritably, a summer of recovery. can't wait for the season finale...

New_Meat's picture

Recovery Summer!  Gotta have the bang there ! - Ned!&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&client=firefox-a&rlz=1R1MOZA_en___US368#q=recovery+summer!&hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=sqc&rlz=1R1MOZA_en___US368&prmd=nv&source=univ&tbs=nws:1&tbo=u&ei=ZjB1TNzeJ4K88gaC8ZjnBg&sa=X&oi=news_group&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CCAQsQQwAA&fp=7db4f7af4a13aa89


lizzy36's picture

Well we now know why brian sack is not at Jackson Hole. 

mephisto's picture

Good poinnt. He is the one with administrator access.

Battleaxe's picture

Jackson Hole Fed statement: "Investors! There's quantitative easing down there!"

jbc77's picture

Yup, here they are pumpin' the old fraud street casino up this morning. Just sickening.

papaswamp's picture

...and the market goes up? I have seen it all.

old_turk's picture



Welcome to the Matrix.

The number was better than the 'whisper' number, of course!

Village Idiot's picture

"...and the market goes up? I have seen it all."


again and again and again and again....

rubearish10's picture

And the Church Lady says: Who saved SPU 1040?? Could it be,,,,,Satan?

johngaltfla's picture

NSA estimated sales (contracts): 25K (per report)

That's 500 contracts per state.

With a 50% rejection rate/inability to find financing, that leaves 250 new homes per state.

8.3 months of NEW inventory, over 16 months when combined with all existing inventory. Add in REO inventory being witheld from the market plus foreclosures stuck in the moritorium/holding pattern and we easily have a 30 month supply pending. In the hardest hit states we already have 30+year supplies of buildable (prepared) lots in many regions.

Put that all together, roll into a recovery doobie and smoke that. The Fed can not cure "oversupply" problems nor the issue of a lack of demand due to deteriorating net wages and income.

Time to do the Zimbabwe Depression Shuffle...sing it gang.....

redpill's picture

In a couple weeks I'll have hard numbers for most of those estimates, they are probably not far off...



johngaltfla's picture

Less than 2,000 new sales of homes $400K plus per the report. That means we're seeing the top end and non-conforming deteriorate rapidly. I'll bet the under $417K drops off after the contracts are closed out from the tax credit this month and we'll see sub 250,000 SAAR in August and September.

kaiserhoff's picture

Exactly.  All those million dollar plus boxes of ticky tacky in New Yawk and Cali will fall off the face of the earth..., one way or another.  Let's see how Comrade Ben hides another few trillion of real, honest to god losses on just about every asset class. 


johngaltfla's picture

Ben is going to have to block FASB on Jan 1 to even have a prayer of saving his banks unless they are planning insulating the Primary Dealers at Jackson Hole and letting the Community Banks and weak sister Regionals be laid waste so they can be scooped up and large mega banks permitted to "save our nation" or some other such bullcrap.

Hang The Fed's picture

The scummy fucks do enjoy consolidation.  Too big to fail?  Pfffttt...apparently, we were just at the threshold of that size.

Village Idiot's picture

That would be some pretty out in the open stuff.  You called it here if they do. 

Eternal Student's picture

Exactly. This is the same pattern that's played out throughout the Housing industry.

Housing Collapse Cascade Pattern

  • Volume drops precipitously
  • Prices soften a bit
  • Inventory levels rise slowly
  • High-end home prices remain relatively steady for a brief while longer
  • The real estate industry tries to convince everyone it's "business as usual" and homes are affordable because rates are low
  • Bubble denial kicks in with media articles everywhere touting the "fundamentals"
  • Stubborn sellers hold out for last year's prices as volume continues to shrink
  • Inventory levels reach new highs
  • Builders start offering huge incentives to clear inventory
  • Some sellers finally realize (too late) what is happening
  • Price declines hit the high-end
  • Increasingly desperate sellers get creative with incentives, offering new cars, below market interest rates, trips, etc
  • Gimmicks do not work
  • Price declines escalate sharply at all price levels
  • The Central Bank issues statements that housing is fundamentally sound
  • Prices collapse, inventory skyrockets, and builders holding inventory go bankrupt

The article goes on more about Canada as well.

johngaltfla's picture

The funny thing nobody wants to talk about in states like AZ, CA, FL, NV, etc....

What to do with the 20-30 year supply of buildable lots (prepped) sitting there with streets, slabs, and plumbed just rotting away....

Eternal Student's picture

Back in the 1930's, we had the Hooverville's of Tent Cities.

We've made progress. Now we have cities with full tents and cities of empty houses.