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New Home Sales Miss Expectations, As Prior Revised Lower To Multi Year Lows; 8.2 Months of Supply
New home sales continue to bounce along the bottom, with the November number coming in at 290K, 10K below expectations. This number will likely be revised lower next month, just like the October number was which ended up being not 283K but 275K, the lowest in pretty much forever. Months supply came at 8.2, a decline from the 8.8 in October. The news is sufficiently bad for the robots to push stocks higher.
From the release:
Sales of new single-family houses in November 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 290,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.5 percent (±16.2%)* above the revised October rate of 275,000, but is 21.2 percent (±13.3%) below the November 2009 estimate of 368,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2010 was $213,000; the average sales price was $268,700. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 197,000. This represents a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate.
And a summary of home prices by housing bucket:
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VXX exhibiting signs of kool-aid withdrawal.
+1 thanks for pointing that out.
Bring on the POMO.....and look at BANR
No POMO today or Monday. Even the FED needs a holiday from all that buying! Markets will go into withdrawal??
anything above 8 months of supply typically means that price pressure is downwards
d.d. booth's fed piece, with the instructive century plus chart of home price indices, used five to six months as the tipping point.
IYR and REITs.....BLAST OFF!
Sell leadership stocks that are both priced for stupid and indicating deteriorating charts over the last couple weeks. Sell [soon to be] last year's great ideas.
Haitzus now changes from ultra bull to shivering bear within hours...yes pay no mind to any of these clowns calls for 2011 as more than likely what was their great calls going forward to 2012 will be erased by next month.
Who are they trying to fool anyway? Already got everyone in the markets theyll ever get. Time for the great shearing of the sheep.
We wouldn't want to ruin anyone's Christmas now would we. The sheep (the few that are left) will get their day next year.
The headline as shown in the NYT from the AP:
"New Home Sales Rise 5.5 Percent in November"
Sell-side, bitches!!!!!!!!!!
& doesn't reflect any "shadow inventory" which doubles this figure.
Meanwhile, the DOW tries for 16000. The USD reverses its declines against the CHF. And suddenly the Euro looks like a good place to put your money again as it also reverses its downward trend against the CHF. And of course, WTI continues its upward trend attempting to hold its place above the $90/bbl mark.
See people, everything is OK. Now go back to watching Jersey shore and buying ipads.
I am ready for the next phase, which will be 'sell the peak, you fucking idiot'.
Are you sure its not a POMO day? Maybe it is a 'stealth POMO' day.
Way back when, the American Nightmare was built on the rubric of home ownership owner-ship, Admiralty law people, study it while you can). You never owned the home in the first place, had a noose around your neck for 30 years or so, but the nightmare was sold so cleverly, you were a happy slave.
Home and hearth.
Such a pretty nightmare it was, drapes and all.
To all land "lords" and "ladies", may I suggest:
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/10/14/the-practice-of-detachment/
ORI
Thats what Ive been saying all along, even if you BUY your land outright, the govt still controls it by collecting taxes on it and if you dont pay they seize 'your' land. No one OWNS their land...landless peasants with the ILLUSION of freedom and property rights.
Zigackly!
ORI
184 Bcf draw in natgas inventories.
Well, this is good news: more money available to buy Apple products and rent Netflix movies. See? Just learn to look on the bright side of the scam <g>
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ
Oh yeah! Especially after that I'm gonna go buy everyone i know an iPad.
"Max iPads" as they say <g>
Should be good for at least a +50 close on the DOW Im sure!
Actually good news in some respects but bad news for homebuilders. There is so much excess inventory in the market the fewer new homes they build the better. If the month's supply drop is accurate this should mean the builders are treading water and letting supplies slowly...very slowly...tighten.
The only residential construction we have in our area (81507) is funded with private money. Not counting the shadow inventory, there are 2-3 years of supply at the high end, and over a year's worth of starter homes. The recent uptick in mortgage rates is queering deals and forcing desperate sellers to slash prices.
Some recovery. Don't even ask about CRE.
It don't matter because of great corporate balance sheets....which they'll sit on since nobody can afford to buy anything without price concessions.
Biflation strikes again: News roundup for this week:
Deflation: Poor existing and new home sales with high inventory, personal spending growth > personal income growth, new jobless still at spooky levels, GDP revision comes in light on slowing inventory build (not a sign of strong buying), social security cuts discussed in Congress, Pritchard AL stops paying out all pension obligations
Inflation: Crude rockets over $90, commodities zoom across the board incl record highs in copper, soaring college tuition costs reported, McDonald's abandoning dollar menu, Kraft raises coffee prices, airlines raise fares, Wall Street bonuses revised way up.
Merry Xmas, suckers!
Caviar Emptor, Im convinced the people of the USSA even if shackled wrist and ankle, with a steel collar around their necks would believe 'ALL IS WELL' as long as they were walked daily past a TV and shown the fucking DOW was up!
SheepDog:
Yup! Mesmerized into their Soma dream (ref: Aldous Huxley).
But I'm also convinced they are partly willing because of fear in the pit of the stomach that something is deeply wrong. Even on a visceral level. Certainly on a pocket book level.
So that kind of denial can easily convert over to rage once they start scraping the bottom of the barrel. From the look of it, 2011 will be the year of the next shoe to drop (bk states and municipaities, pension cuts, Federal austerity with soc sec cuts, more waves of new layoffs, all with rising costs. Corporate balance sheets are so rich there's no need to respond to decreased demand.
@caviar
IMO the social psychology is more akin to buyer's remorse, on multiple levels. People who bought homes after '05 regret the decision because they're likely underwater. Voters regret the feckless asshole they elected as President in '08, and now we're seeing signs that the new Congress is just going to double-down on stupid. I see anxiety and uncertainty in many people, even the ones who couldn't care less about the details of the financial markets.
As you say, there is a visceral sense that something just isn't right, but they try to go about their lives and soldier on.
Out here in Kali, we are moving toward Mad Max with a dashboard Jesus.
'The essence of tragedy is this; that the Hero, attempting to do good, can do only ill. Meanwhile Fate advances, like a wall.'
--Robinson Jeffers
Stockholm Syndrome is a powerful thing!
Wow, some graphic.
They sold 100% of all new homes, every month? Kerplunk.
Sounds like great news. I'm sure MSM could spin that very nicely thank you.
Perhaps a graphic that showed how much they altered each monthly figure by, one month later, might be of more use.
Im confused
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-up-55-in-november-2010-1...
It sure seems Ben is having to flip more switches, adjust more levers, and work harder than ever before to convince the sheeple all is well. It just appears he is using more arcane and unknown policy devices to maintain world order - isn't their a limit?
Building homes is so obviously heinously uneconomic in this climate the only way to explain that anything more than custom labors of love are being built at all is subsidies, direct and indirect.