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New Home Sales Plummet 13% To 284,000 Annualized Rate, 19K Actual Homes Sold Lowest Monthly Ever
While the quant funds are desperately seeking modelers for a "deranged middle east dictator" algo, the US economy continues to prolapse. From the release: "Sales of new single-family houses in January 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 284,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.6 percent (±11.2%) below the revised December rate of 325,000 and is 18.6 percent (±15.4%) below the January 2010 estimate of 349,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2011 was $230,600; the average sales price was $260,300. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 188,000. This represents a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate." Less than 500 homes (Z) sold in the over $750,000. And the stunner: only 19k non-annualized homes were sold. The lowest monthly total ever. (and as JT Smith points out, of the 19K, 53% were vacant lots or under construction).
And the stunning chart: actual non-seasonally adjusted monthly sales:
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The roof.....
C'mon Party People...
Welcome to the Recovery...
This is not my beautiful house!
I feel this may be bullish for equities.
It was the snow; keeps the buyers subdued.
Lol. "Winning the future" doesn't jive with snowfall.
I'm an ordinary guy
Burning down the house
Hold tight wait till the party's over
Hold tight We're in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house
Here's your ticket pack your bag:
time for jumpin' overboard
Fightin' fire with fire
While we're quoting David Byrne
this ain't no party
this ain't no disco
this ain't no foolin' around
this ain't no mud club, or cbgb
I ain't got time for that now
heard about houston
heard about detroit
heard about pittsburgh, pa
you ought to know not to stand by the window
somebody see you up there
Qu'est-ce que c'est
fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa far better
Run run run run run run run away
We don't need no water.....
The roof...
Burn mother-ucker, BURN!
Actually I'm getting ready to buy a house these days. Bad idea?
Very. 15-30% dip coming over the next couple years depending on your locale.
My locale has been and is still adding jobs despite the rest of the economy... as a result, our housing prices have been pretty stable on the low end... anything getting close to $200k is going to sit on the market for a while unless at a significant discount... I'm up about 20% in the value of the home since I purchased in 08... and imma dump it come spring... actually hoping to see if I can rent a house in the same neighborhood... would be an easy move and my entire neighborhood is nothing but cops, firemen, and teachers... and on the outskirts of town... and there is plenty of adjacent crop land... I'm thinking neighborhood security is not going to be an issue...
You may want to rethink that security assumption when those dependent on Government checks stop getting them. You may want to suggest that they start prepping, rather than ending up with a bunch of neighbors that are capable of going on the offensive to meet their needs.
The blue and red welfare queens are among the last to get the pink slip... Given that few are lucky enough to have jobs, I'm not sure what your point is... aside from the fact that poor and rich alike all own firearms to the teeth in this country... all of my neighbors are capable of aggression... and I'm not sure that eating doughnuts and tazing the elderly is really much practice for war... I've put as many lead projectiles down range as they have... and, if some semblance of the court system is still around, I have no problems marching to get the court involved in stopping them... as a member of the bar.
I have little or no faith in my security... but, I think all things considered, my neighborhood is better suited than most... not that it's saying much...
Just heard about a close on a S Fla property ~$1mm where the SELLER had to write a check for $175K...this is life in the resi real estate market today.
IOW, there are very real reasons nothing is moving and the banks aren't lending.
I advised someone against buying a home in a very exclusive area of Florida just two weeks ago (they had asked my opinion).
Anyways, they purchased a property for $368,000 that had last sold for $1,14x,xxx (something), and no, there were no structural, drywall (Chinese), mold or other issues with the home.
They purchased it as an investment property, and their big problem now will be a) the property taxes, b) HOA fees, c) Lack of availability of hurricane insurance, d) the coming outright collapse of whatever is left of a property market as credit completely goes by-by, and the market is forced to choke on all cash offers made by extremely shrewd and very tight-fisted investors (the kind that drive 10 year old cars with 200k miles on them, no matter how wealthy they are).
Mine is 14 years old, but only has ~150k miles... I don't drive much... I'm holding out until they get this whole oil thing sorted out. Waiting on weak hands to dump choice properties on the market...
I've been trying to buy shitbird/low end real estate as well as foreclosures and tax sale properties... there is a permanent bid under these damn things... nowhere near the haircut there should be... I can finally start to see the cd exchange (old folks dumping CDs for rental properties) and "cash on the sidelines" drying up... and, as said before, I probably live in as good of area as any as far as the general economy goes (we had the lowest unemployment in the country through 09, not sure about now).
The other problem that most people don't understand is that it is going to take quite a bit of money to get your title issues worked out post purchase... I have a core competancy in this department... not sure about everyone else...
I bought a townhome early in the boom where the seller had to write a check to get the deal done. That's how I like buying 'em. Buy on cancer, divorce, old age or some other major problem with the seller's life situation.
My strategy or timing, is to keep on building up my silver and gold ounces until the end of 2012. Then I will start looking at real estate. As much as I am tempted, I will be disciplined and wait. Of course you may have other needs or desires.
However, I think it will work out really well. I currently spend and pay bills in FRN and put ALL of my savings into PMs. Then I will trade those for real estate in 2013.
The mayans of course are correct. However, it won't be the end but a new beginning. We will learn then that we are not alone and are part of a larger universe. Star children if you must. We will also learn of infinite abundance.
I'm with you brother, PM's to real estate. Acreage!! 53% vacacnt land to give us the lowest number of housing sales ever, real unemployment at 23%, yes best wait...
if i may squeeze in here and i will try to be quick to the point, assuming most of you will fill in the blanks.
i live in balt. cnty..nice location close to everything.
major road put in connctng 95 to rt. 40 and 151...
built major sq. fttg. of industrial.. millions
some shopping, a green bank building that was occupied 3 mos. bye bye bradford..
less than 50% occupied..
i new housing project 3yrs old capicity of 35 homes...4 are built and occupied..
they have just broke ground to double the size of the indust. park plus 450,000 housing....by st.johns
3 new home developments have broke ground around me, 1 600 ft down the road from the 4 house devlop.
others within 2 miles..
no financing signs on any of these sites...the lendor always proudly let the world know who was the financior.
than i hear that shortly the fed funds that are being used currently to finance these type of improvements-{utilities, roads, housing etc. very liberal use of funds.} are going to expire in a few months. than the light came on ..no signs, private money can't be this stupid, ...
there is no demand for anything around hear....so total govt backing? so i look forward to the future decay of my area, as the new empty houses can join the old empty houses and they both can take mine down with them...but if this is what i have to do to keep inflation down i will or is it deflation or is it...
What's the name on your ivory tower?
my house would have sold if it wasn't for that ice dam on the roof
Verdant fields of empty McMansions gazed upon by shivering tent-dwellers
"....the US economy continues to prolapse."
Disturbing imagery, but accurate. :-)
My sister the real estate agent says she's seeing one or two sales a month in an area of midcoast Maine that used to see four or five closings a week. The number of active agents has dropped by more than half, and she's getting out herself, starting a seasonal home maintenance business instead.
Well of course, didn't anyone see all the snow in January?
Ha! They have a position for you at NAR.
what does non anualized homes mean
You live there for one year.
/sarc
You guys are too negative.
Now home sales lower is because the weather, and too much going on around mideast so people have to watch CNBC so they have no time shopping for houses!!
They're saving up for a down payment. Bullish!
Wow you could write teleprompter blurbs for Cue-Ball Steve Lies-man...
It's a sign of a continuing recovery! We'll find that bottom down there somewhere!
Like at zero.
No worries. We're still in the green and oil off the highs. 10yr yield down. It's an all out day it appears. Gotta keep the lid on.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A
I bet 90% of those sales where to government employees or union members it seems they are the only people with steady guaranteed income
Washington D.C. was the only city on the Case Shiller index that had flat to increasing prices this past month. Spot on with the government employee comment.
Well, it was snowing after all....
Fuck you guys <throws mic down, exits stage left >
It's time for Obama to come up with another brilliant plan to help the Home Buildiners, I mean the "American Families Looking to start their dream in a new home."
How can you afford a house with so much AAPL and AMZN to buy
Ba-da-da-dut-dut-da-da-Dut-da-Dut-da.
Bottom line: house prices are still more than the market can bear.
There has been an epic slide in average incomes since the crisis, on top of high structural unemployment. And the cost of home ownership has been rising non-stop. Banks charge more and insurance companies too just to close the deal. And the new reality means that prospective buyers aren't credit worthy at these prices. Banks won't lend into a deflationary housing market.
My wife is a top agent in Southeast Wisconsin and can confirm the dismal January. However, February activity skyrocketed but the prices are continuing to go down significantly. The low prices she's getting for her buyers are eye opening. More like eye cringing.
That's now a firmly entrenched downward spiral.
When inflation will not cause house prices to increase, what incentive does anyone have to keep one around? I mean, you can make enough juice off the sale proceeds to pay for rent... especially considering the money you would have lost in the meantime... when the time comes and you feel froggy, buy again... I'm just to the point where I would rather leave someone else with the bag and it appears I'm not alone... everyone that has any sense and a fairly expensive house seems to have already hit the panic button (my house is cheap heh)... of course, by doing this, all of their houses have sat idle on the market... the more expensive, the more laughable the prospects of sale... [some stupid local realtor wannabe built a new $850k+ spec house... it finished the same month rosie was harping about how not a single new home over $750k had been sold in the entire country... I drive by it every morning on the way to work and get a smile... for a little while... and then remember that it's my tax money that is going to pay for the damn thing... doh].
Noticed that someone junked you. We've confirmed the 'stupid local realtor who built the spec house you drive by every morning' reads this site. Probably a $300K junk right there.
Rejoice comrades! Our glorious five year plan is achieving wonderful results.
The great leap forward is exceeding all expectations! It's a new paradigm, a Goldilocks economy and a cultural revolution all in one!
You must Listen to your politicians if you want the truth, America!
Arise, ye prisoners of starvation
Arise, ye wretched of the earth
Justice thunders condemnation
A new world's in birth
Didn't existing home sales for January drop by 30%, but it was seasonally-adjusted to +2.7%???
Home values floundering, interest rates higher, commodities soaring, unemployment stagnant BUT stocks are up.
The Fed is 1 for 5 with stated QE objectives. Not even baseball players can keep a job hitthing .200 Did they ever actually state they wanted stocks up? Maybe they are 0 for 4
I should have done the online 3 month Phoenix University of school for Federal reserve board members (high school diploma not necessary)
Haunting Images of post boom Las Vegas
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/27/las_vegas_foreclosures_unemploy...
20 years ago I would drive through rural Mexico and every little town had a couple of unfinished schools, and a few other buildings. Started when the oil money was flowing, but stopped halfway through.
No way I would live in some McMansion out in the middle of nowhere.
short term good, medium term bad, long term good... If you have a neighborhood that is worth a shit and you all can reasonably band together for protection and division of labor, etc., then that can sustain you indefinitely... the problem of course is that generally a neighborhood will be more in harm's way than a place out in the sticks... further, if some animals are more equal than others on animal farm, you might have some issues with your food... whereas, if you have your own place out in the sticks... you have your own livestock, food, etc. The only question is how large and intelligent your opposition will be... obviously planning to be rambo is not a viable plan...
I'm amazed that the new home market is in such shambles. You would figure that new home sales would at least begin to see mid 300's to low 400's by now. Still in the gutter. Shows how bad the US economy truly is.
"I am Jack's complete lack of surprise."
+1111, proper FC reference...
+1 Stycho
+hindu cows
QE3 home buying
The only "people" buying houses are the Flippers and Speculators again. The Average Joe is renting since renting is cheaper and buying for the average person is still too risky and houses still about 30% overpriced.
Decade of recovery!
Dow 36,000
bang dae ho
And to watch in my neigborhood. 2 New Houses being built. 2 on the market for sale for over a year, no nibbles. Never underestimate the ignorance of a construction worker or the sheep.
Strategy:
1. Buy gold, silver
2. Wait for hyperinflationary collapse or widespread fear thereof, leading to collapse in real estate (no, it's not a good inflation hedge)
3. Buy undervalued real estate and make sick money over the following 20 years.
Argentina style, uh, bitchez.
Even though the argentine peso devalued significantly and some prices went higher, real estate went down.
Nailed it.
Might include some equity speculation after hyperinflation renders POMO useless. You may well be able to buy out an entire company for a couple oz of shiny, and have them return to profitability under the new regime, a la Chile.
Just wait til 2mm more foreclosures hit the supply of homes. Oh, wait, Obama thinks a $2000 modification is going to allow poeple to stay in their homes that they can't afford. Ridiculous. that "Socialism gone apeshit..." post kept me up last night. I just can't stand it.
C'mon now! It's $2000 AND a free I-Pod (probably)! That's spare change I can believe in!!
Not really surprising to see small % of homes bought, bloody underwriters need you to sign off on your first born these days for a loan. 800 fico, 50% loan to value, full doc super clean profiles are getting beaten over the head over minute like overtime earnings or something pathetic like that. So anytime these pending sales reports come out we laugh our balls off, because realistically only 50% of these will make it to funding as the lenders will chew the other half up and spit them out. Where's my Bama bucks?
Excellent catch. Lenders know the market is going down, so they are padding the downside by 50% and making sure the buyer has so much skin in the game that a strategic default is hemorroid painful.
Translation - we have only begun to see the downside. Commercial prices have reset about 40% lower from their 2007 highs. Where the bottom is in residential is unclear, but replacement cost is the starting point.
Not related specifically, but I know exactly why the market has swooned since Friday, and it has nothing to do with MidEast, QE, housing, employment, gold/silver, etc.
I decided to pick up a few bucks by buying some Mar SPY 135 calls on Thursday. As usual, the market does exactly opposite my plan.....
'nuff said -- fellow Bears, you are welcome.....
Dont worry.
I called a top again.
The market will rocket back up shortly.
So we'll see whose Kung Fu is weaker -- I'm guessing mine is; I actually have put (thankfully not much) some skin in the game here, so I expect the market to punish me far longer than it does your reputation. That said, I appreciate the effort!
i think the American bears will say the same thing when their long awaited crash occurs.....but i just wait to say these lines :::
Is it a bird ...is it a plane ...is it a drone ...or is it a Flying Mullah.....NOOOOOOO....its the stock markets ....LOOK at them CRASHHH
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/
Shouldn't the market be UP on this data?? Are we no longo in bizzaro land?
d e n i a l river, runs through it, amerika†
I remember very rare big floods north of the SF Bay area in the early 1980's and a news helicopter flying over the scene showed houses standing in water halfway up to the first floor windows -- on fire!
Apparently, owners didn't think they needed to buy flood insurance but they did have lots of fire insurance. Just a thought.
I realize that my elected officials are not bright....but they must be completely brain dead to keep missing the point of all this. I write letters, make calls, and only get "form letter" replies back....(and not very well written ones at that). Man!! we are doomed.
Kudos for trying. I do the same, and receive much the same (nada) with respect to substantive reply. My email to Chuck Schumer from last night"s "Socialism Gone Apeshit...." post:
Dear Sir,
"Fining" the banks $20B or allowing them to make loan modifications of the same amount is bad policy for myriad reasons. First, the banks will have to charge off at least that much if the foreclosure and MBS mess is allowed to run its course through the courts one mortgage/one security at at time. This proposal hardly amounts to a penalty and really looks like a "proactive" (political) way to curry voter favor while actually preventing the banks from suffering losses that would otherwise make them insolvent again. Second, the moral hazard supported at the level of banks, MBS investors, and borrowers is clear and terrible. Third, this would not prevent further house price declines (the feared consequence of letting the courts do the work), but rather this would lead to further house price erosion. This is due to the immediate need for underwater borrowers to obtain the lowest possible appraisal value for their home, in order to qualify for the maximum modification. The only way to hasten the recovery of the housing market is to force the banks to mark to market, foreclose where necessary, and take the losses that are rightfully theirs. Fourth, the average reduction in principal over the 10mm mortgages in question is just $2000. Even at 10 times the dollar amount (or the same amount spread over 1/10 the number mortgages), the average modification is $20,000 or approximately $125 per month on a 30 year mortgage. This amount will not prevent many future foreclosures from happening.
This proposal is clearly a populist political stunt to extend an olive branch to main street with its own bailout. What has happened to this country? Anyone who has prudently managed his/her finances and actually has savings is being punished by most of the policy decisions coming out of the administration, the Congress, and particularly the Federal Reserve. Is this the America you were proud of as a child? Please represent us, the Constitution, and the idealistic boy you once were.
Yours sincerely,
{Capt K}
This is just the beginning of the collapse in housing.
Check out the reformulation of lending standards by the FHA, which has kept whatever buying that has BEEN taking place (anemic, but some) from tanking further, with 3% down, subsidized loans.
Catching falling knives make for bloody, scarred hands.
I'll wait for my pal Lawrence "Numbers" Yun NAR non-economist and all around clueless statistically handicapped sap to weigh in on this...
BTW: Lawrence, you need way thicker glasses...
Put this in its sharper prospective...these are sales of homes that have NO title history and are infinitely more attractive on that basis alone. No MERS, no funky assignments...shiny clean (obstensibly) new titles. Even with that, the numbers are Bow Wow.
Put this in its sharper prospective...these are sales of homes that have NO title history and are infinitely more attractive on that basis alone. No MERS, no funky assignments...shiny clean (obstensibly) new titles. Even with that, the numbers are Bow Wow.