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New Home Sales Plunge To New All Time Record Low, 308K SAAR Is 2.2% Frop From Revised 315K In January
New home sales drop to a record low adjusted annual rate of 308K. All of the government's housing stabilizing measures are now a disaster, as existing home sales inventory surges to nearly 9 months, not counting the shadow inventory, which is more than double. The plunge is in all regions except the West, where the pick up was from 77K to 93k. When is the last time anyone mentioned green shoots again? And the computers ignore it all as nobody remember how to sell anymore. In fact, we expect a green market within 10 minutes as king SPARC shows all who is master.
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Yep, buy homebuilder stocks, our masters have this mess under control!
CNBS reporting February construction permits revised to +2.4% vs. -1.6%...whatever.
Those are for outhouse's, that is where the demand is.
You beat me to it. And a few extended care facilities, construction to be funded by the new healthcare spending.
Gov't don't need no permit to build a FEMA camp.
I am not sure why we think that the pulling of permits by homebuilders is a good indication of actual market demand. We all realize that HB's were the absolute worst at seeing this crisis coming yet somehow we want them to show us the way out.
"We all realize that HB's were the absolute worst at seeing this crisis coming yet somehow we want them to show us the way out."
Sorry to be so crass but a man with a hard-on will never ever fail to see a purpose for his hard-on. "Now that it's up, clearly there's something I can do with it."
Thus home builders with only one purpose in life (like the man with the hard-on) will always see utility in building homes and can always be counted on to see a rosy future just around the corner. Since we males can commiserate with the poor (erect) chap, who are we to call him a liar or fool? I mean, the man has to do something with it, right?
Best analogy in a long time! =)
In another life I used to write feasibility studies & business plans for RE & CRE developments.
Pretty much developers will build if any one approves their loan, no matter if they think they can sell them or not later.
"Thus home builders with only one purpose in life (like the man with the hard-on) will always see utility in building home..."
Classic, CD.
Professor CD replaces the "Rational Investor" principle with the "Erection Investor" principle.
One thing that is not mentioned in one of the housing bubble capitals of the US... Cali-forn-I-A... is that as hard on riddled developers built houses.... school districts counted houses, estimated 1.7 children per and built bubble schools. Even UC built a bubble campus in Merced the Central Valley bubble implosion epicenter.
So now we have too many houses, to many vacancies and too much school capacity, leading to layoffs and closings...
US Crony Capitalism...
The Great Misallocator of Resources...
Agreed. Great analogy.
Builders Build. If a bank will lend they will build.
Bankers and their (supposed) economists are supposed to know when to put the brakes on construction lending when the market is over-built.
But I never have seen them do so in history. Ever.
the green shoots are all under the snow, that's why we can't see them. but they're there, just trust us!
Love that second chart - you don't see many like that. That baby should be in a textbook.
Somebody said it best here the other day: temps don't buy houses.
I hear BofA is rolling out a new mortgage program for census workers...just bring one weeks paystub, and buy, buy, buy...
More news that is reason to buy stocks yet again!
We should be green by end of day....
"According to Sentimentrader.com, the longest period of selling pressure during this six-week run is just four hours. In other words, the total market correction over a month and a half of trading is half of a day. I don't know if that is a record, but it must be pretty close."
Yeah - this isn't a rigged market!
Please do not believe your eyes, trust Mr. Obama's team. The recovery is gathering steam! Visit web-site recovery.org.
I love that site! When I looked at my father's town of Moreno Valley, Calif., they had spent $4.5 million for 4 jobs. That is money well spent.
It was really $ 4.50 for 4 jobs. The remainder was scooped up by the developers.
Ok how do we change that number to look positive. Remember we can revise it later when nobody cares.
There are 22 foreclosed condos in my area, one in my building, and only 12 of them are on the market - the rest aren't even available for bid. Anything foreclosed on after Aug of 2008 either sits vacant or is rented out on a monthly basis by the Condominium corporations to cover costs. They're rigging the market nine ways to Sunday in attempt to keep prices high and everyone knows it. Anyone looking to buy should wait for the bottom to fall out, because prices have a lot further to fall.
Yes it seems they were waiting for a housing recovery which isn't going to happen with high unemployment. I have observed the same thing, housing is still way overvalued.
you are seeing a small portion of the massive "shadow inventory" that exists nationwide. It's not on any MLX anywhere.
Its all good!
AP says weather was a factor that kept buyers away.......Robo is going to have a LEN chart soon...think parralell universe.
AP is the NBC of the news wires - both are subsidiaries of barackobama.com
*sips fine brandy* Ahhh... How about that 'recovery'?
B+.
Solid.
Why buy a house? Some time next year the gov't will be buying them from builders and giving them away free as part of the stimulus 2.0.
More or less 5 million of american homeowners have stopped paying their mortgages entirely in 2010.
These homeowners have thus an additional $80 billion in disposable income and can buy GM cars, Abercombie&Fitch shirts, Carnival cruises, etc.
On the other side of the trade, we have :
-banks which are able to book mortgages as assets until the mortgages properties are forclosed. Theese mortgages are non paying (-$80 billion), but interests are accrued resulting in a profit for banks.
-Ben who is lending at 0% to banks to buy some GM, Abercombie&Fitch, etc stocks.
Don't fight the system, dow will reach 36.000, they've found the philosopher's stone.
....a snarky +100 !!
This must be why the banks are up today - fewer new home sales means fewer new mortgages now, so fewer future deliquent mortgages to cover up.
I knew there was green shoot in there somewhere. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
+1
The new logic
And the market keeps going up.
"Have IQ's dropped dramatically since I have been away?"
-Lt. Ripley - Aliens
These Charts are NOT, I repeat, NOT leading indicators. That is all.
Going down!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDLQg8ZKBS8
Barney Frank: "the housing problem is because of the last administration, specifcally Bush" while Dodd stands at his side gleeming "we had no part of this".
Let me put into perspective how ridiculously overpriced the real estate maket has become.
In 1998 I bought a 1 bedroom coop in mid-town Manhattan for $145K. I was making $85K per year at the time and put down 20%. While I felt I was stretching myself, I felt it was a doable financial arrangement.
When I sold it in late 2000 with a 60%, I thought to myself, that return is INSANE. Now, the same coop is worth at least double that amount and bought by people with little to no money down and with in income to price ratio FAR worse than I had.
Sheer logic and common sense says that this cannot continue and is completely artificial. And now they want to "reinflate prices"???? HAH!
You know the story about the village where everyone is crazy from drinking the water from the same river except for one man. That man visits the wise elder in the mountain and asks him what to do and the wise elder replies, "Drink the water..."
Can't imagine why this news would keep the DOW from climbing further...perfectly reasonable...really.
Next stop, DOW 36k.
I surrender.
It was the blizzard!!!
Above from ransquawk-
but bank stocks continue to rise at least 1+ % per day .I would buy if I wasn't so terrified of the consequences of all of this.
So... I guess that shot of Billionzzz thrown at the housing market last year was...sort of a waste? Now that we're back to where it was before the subsidies....
The purpose was achieved by repo'ing the toxic MBS's from the banks.
I'd say all homeowners paying their mortgage have a one year moratorium (without recourse) on payments whether the banks like it or not. Who's with me?
We already knew that all the new credit is being generated by the govt, so this drop in new home sales and the accompanying reduction in private debt creation is nothing that is going to shock the market.
How much longer until new home sales finally rise to the mid 750's? The chart above shows from 1982 to 1990 the average was 750 saar. In the early 90's, 750 saar was the average. Then the housing bubble went mad and we peaked at 1400 saar. Now we languish at 308. How much longer, another year? With new home construction at all time lows it will be a few years until the excess inventory gets taken care. Eventually, prices will fall low enough where people will be able to buy buy buy. I say by 2013 this chart wont look so bad anymore.
A zero down 2% 60 year fixed oughta' do it .
Didn't I read some poster commenting about 100 year mortgages in Japan a few weeks ago?
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2006/08/50-year_mortgag.html
http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/mortgages/time-for-the-100-year-mortgage/2008/10/13/
http://blogs.gonomad.com/readuponit/2005/12/buying-a-house-with-a-90-year-mortgage-in-japan.html
BAC is allowing deadbeats to slash up to 30% of mortage... i have to figure out best way to be a deadbeat too and also make them see my home price drop.. i bought at the last bottom a year ago so I would need a real shady appraiser to knock it down more.. or just ask any of you guys who think homes are only worth $40,000
you can start by parking a few wrecked cars on bricks in your front yard. Next, borrow a pack of pitbulls for the back along with clothes hoists and blow up kiddy pool (puncture it and place bandaids over the holes). Plywood over the granite counter tops and don't flush the shitter for at least a week.
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What is it with you? How many times are you gonna post this?