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New Homes Sales Come At Third Lowest Number In History, Miss Expectations, Median Home Price Lowest Since December 2003
New home sales print at 288,000, missing expectations of 295,000, and coming at the third lowest number in history. The previous read of 276K was revised to 288K. New home inventory is now at 8.6 month supply. Add the roughly 12 months in supply at existing home sales in inventory and you can easily see why the stock market is up almost 2.0%. The median home price of $204,700 is now the lowest since December 2003.
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And stocks rally more.
Un fucking believable.
In fact it is believable. They must pump. They MUST pump in the face of deteriorating economic news. They have no choice. They have sold a myth to the public in the hope that it got them to the next election. It's falling a bit short.
They have the means, motive and opportunity to extend it a bit longer using whatever methods they can in order to gain two more years of "you can't do anything about it for two more years" kicking the can down the road.
Can kicking and baby kissing are two givens in politics. Considering that the entire economic system hangs in the balance and even the babies are being thrown out with the bath water as everyone goes "Balls to the wall" all in.
It makes perfect sense that psychopaths will act even more psychopathic when threatened.
I agree and disagree with the notion that they are doing this to stay in office. But can they really beleive that the public is going to re-elect them. Main Street is so far removed from what Wall St. and Washington are doing with their circle j*rk. I picture them all standing around saying to each other, see things are better, how about you, yep things are better, how about you, yep things are better, how about you, things aren't better for the public, what they all say and from the great Monty Python movie, a witch burn him!
Main street doesn't care if the Dow is up. If anything they think they're being scammed. Food prices soaring, jobs gone, all these companies making money but they are screwed.
The base for the dems won't bother to get out to vote. So we get more repubs. My bet is we get record third peaty gains.
Pacification....that's all it is. Pacification to the baby boomers and their retirement accounts.
Who cares about votes....that's simply a software download. They just want us to think that they actually care about our votes...
Don't get caught in the left vs. right facade! CIA has controlled the presidency ever since they took JFK out! Dig a little on Obama and you'll see he's branded and nothing more than a teleprompter puppet!
"Pacification to the baby boomers and their retirement accounts."
Couldn't agree more. The Boomers cashed in on their houses expecting infinite exponential RE price increases, and now are screwed. Like the way SS was created to prevent their great-grandparents from revolting, now we have perpetual government support for real estate to prevent them from holding their breath until they turn blue.
I heard that Bush Jr. had 550,000 votes in Detroit - before the polls opened!
Well his grandpappy married into the power....was heavily involved in getting the CIA off the ground (BBH banking buddy (subordinate) Allen Dulles ran it from 53 till getting fired by JFK (although Allen had the last laugh on the Warren Commission).....also occassional golfing buddies with Eisenhower and set up the Cuban invasion after Castro nationalized all the big banking operations in Cuba along with the Mafia's.
His pappy...went straight to a CIA front company after leaving Yale as a member of the Skull & Bones network. Ran Operation Zapata (...think Bay of Pigs) in an effort to reclaim the family's financial interests in Cuba through the front company Zapata Oil. Then when JFK pulled the plug (fired Allen Dulles and two associates) and said he was going to smash the CIA (Bush & co) into a thousand pieces....he ran the rub operation. E Howard Hunt was the on the ground crew chief and the Roscoe White (code name Mandarin - part ZR/RIFLE assassination program) & Lucien Sarti team (1 of 3 shooting teams triangulating JFK) did the killing shots from the grassy knoll. Later pappy became an "official" CIA man...then Vice Pres though nearly became president 60 days in when family friend John Hinckley set the stage for SS rubout of Reagan. No matter though as he ran the show from that point on for 12 years despite Iran/Contra and whistleblowers like James "Bo" Gritz.
After that pappy chose family friend and CIA money launderer for the cocaine returns coming out of Mena Arkansas, William Jefferson Blythe the third for the chief puppet position....actually Bill was the first official puppet for the CIA but they had their hands full with his philandering and raping in the oval office....plus past blunders and clean up like Hillary's law partner Vince Foster (rubbed out) who hired Jerry Parks to build a dossier on Bill (which Jerry kept until he was rubbed) for when Hillary decided to be done with Bill (despite Bill having a nose like a vaccum - according to brother Rodger....he made good)
Then Dubbya got a turn...and now we have a more officially trained/controlled spook puppet on the stage (used 72+ different social security numbers) who they can get rid of at will should the need arise through birth/constitution issues.
And they've consolidated their power position such that problems like getting FEMA funded (Congress refused so Oliver North had to use Cocaine/Heroin proceeds) or issues like Khun Sa threatening to turn over 20 years of records on government contacts (shifted to Afghanistan for sourcing - 25% of world's production in 1980 prior to Bin Laden-Iran/Contra, 75% of world's production in 1999 prior to invasion, and currently 95% of world's production) or Afghani tribal leaders getting greedy on their cut (we now "officially" have 100,000 troops and 400,000 private contractors chasing 100 Al-cia-da - means database - around the countryside). FYI - Columbia produces 85% of the world's cocaine but we are building seven new bases down there so expect that to increase to 95% in just a few years (although the high court turned it down at the end of August....it won't be a problem - remember Operation Condor)!
double-post
You think Main St elects people?
Buahaha.
Maybe, but it doesn't really matter. Those elected are playing for different teams, but the teams are part of the same league. Keep cheering, watching, buying tickets, and foam #1 fingers.
It doesn't matter which party is in office since it's all one party with two different factions. The key is NOT to get re-elected. The key is to prevent a third or fourth party.
They must keep the game between themselves. They must not allow others to convince the people there are choices others than those presented by the one party, two faction system of control.
This is what I'm really talking about here.
I think the part your missing is that there is very likely going to be an engineered crash (similar to 2008) in order to push along the "Republican takeover". Kills two birds with one stone: divided governments do nothing (that hasn't been thoroughly vetted, ex., the 1986 tax bill), and yet, the people will feel like the election process yields the desired results. People care a lot less about changes to their circumstances than they do about "getting" the other team. Popular competitive sports have only two teams for a reason. I know you're already well aware of this, but I think you might be missing the implication.
There's going to be an engineered crash no matter what. In fact, there will be several, as part of a much larger global social engineering project.
Everything else is secondary and part of the normal sociopathic pushing and shoving at the feeding trough. There are many layers of control. For the vast majority of people, they are firmly focused on the first two.
Government and overt politics.
There are higher, deeper levels of control that swim beneath the waves and the public consciousness.
"They must pump. They MUST pump in the face of deteriorating economic news. They have no choice. They have sold a myth to the public in the hope that it got them to the next election. It's falling a bit short."
Quoted the wrong post earlier, this was the specific thing I was disgreeing with, I think they're pumping through September 30th to keep the right people happy, but from there I think the spigot gets turned off until January, on purpose, to achieve the political objective.
It's likely I'm just misunderstanding what you're getting at, such is the limitation of typed conversation.
Having read "What if it doesn't end with a bang..." article, I am glad when you put confidence qualifiers to your posts.
Did you read that article or just the first few paragraphs? Because this statement is consistent with my article. An engineered stock market crash, or even several, doesn't mean or imply it "ends" by any stretch of the imagination. Crash doesn't mean end of the economic system. 1929 is proof. In fact, what's going on is moving the herd, not slaughtering. Which is what happened from 1929 to 1945. Global power and perception changed or rotated from one center to another.
There can be many crashes in the market when the powers have the means, motive and opportunity to build it right back up, even if to lower highs. There are too many people depending upon the system for them to abandon it, thus making them wonderful cannon fodder. Or tools if you will.
This was the message of the article you point to. Not one big bang but a long drawn out whimper. Crashes that don't "end" the system will cause the whimper.
This is as much about psychological operations to promote social engineering as it is about stripping the middle class of it's 60 years of accumulated wealth.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-if-%E2%80%9Cit%E2%80%9D-doesn%E2%80%99t-end-bang-whimper-mind-games-chapter-one-two
I would add that not many individuals have the wealth anymore...like the % of boomers with less than $15k in retirement funds. This depression is about the wealth tied up in the cities, counties, and states. This time around its about bleeding that wealth (the stuff in the CAFR...not the budgets). Everyone is selling....and those with the printing presses will be buying!
Also its a power roll-up. The states dwindle and beg for Federal handouts thus consolidating the Fed's power position (how many times has Arnold begged for help?). Social engineering indeed!
Hence the "bailout" money....hence the stock market engineering, gold/silver games - i.e. hyperinflation rhetoric while deflation grinds and the power of the printing press grows by the day, etc etc etc.
Well put.
But things will get better when the GOP is in charge. They've pledged to be good and stuff...
Dispicable slimeballs, the lot of them.
BTW, anyone else buying puts/selling calls on SPY December options? I'm not talking about a lot, but somethings gotta give sooner than later.
somethings gotta give sooner than later.
No, Helicopter Ben won't let something give. Markets are going to the Moon. USD is going to Hell
That is definitely a possiblity. Stagflation may indeed bite us in the ass as we sit in our underwater houses and dead retirement plans while the prices of good shoots up.
Dems and GOP are all corrupt slimeballs. The MSM makes sure there is no other choice but to go back and forth between them. Until this changes the best option is gridlock.
CD, the only playaz left are the Insurance, pensions, HFT's. If the markets craps 30-40%, with the underfunded pensions in place now, taking an additional 40% cut, all hell is gonna break loose, and better now rather than later.
They cant keep doing this forever? At the expense of the USD? Inflation will rear its ugly effects in the future but not where it counts the most, your paystub.
Up 200 points for what reason? Definitely POMO is the reason. I am sure the insiders are having a field day dumping their holdings.
And more unbelieveable crap: Title on CNN: "New home sales up". If you click on the link, titlebar is "New home sales flat in August". They are just flat out lying, yet again.
People who believe these fools are going to get badly burned.
I think the HFT Algos can decipher words from headlines....so of course they need to put POSITIVE headlines so the computers can ramp up their buy programs.
That could be - they go by keywords in press releases and wire stories so the programe code could be something like
If $keyword = "beat expectations" then buy
(excuse the lame code - the only code I ever actually wrote was on a Vic 20)
But then I go onto stock twits and see things like "ooh, GDP beat expectations loaded up on SPY and REITS". Even worse - tards like that have been right!!!
Of course, the fawning corporate press MUST lie in order to support their masters. It's well documented how the fawning corporate press always supports the power base. I'm not talking about one party over another. I'm talking about the economic system itself. And the system is teetering on the edge. They must try to save themselves by trying to save the system. Or die trying.
Lying is an acceptable tool or method of states craft when your ass is against the wall. It's up to us to hold them accountable and I don't see too many patriots lately.
The best September is seventy-one years continues, based on the worst fundamental backdrop in over fifty years.
Its all about free Ben money.
How come all these other guys on ZH, both the posters and the commenters, can't figure out how to get the exact cause of the rise in the stock market across in those six words?
"It's all about free Ben money."
Q.E.D.
Hey, look at that, another reason to slam the Dollar.
Don't think the rally will hold. We got the POMO coming in a bit and then things should cool off. Gonna be insane if the market somehow ends in the red today.
It's POMO Friday, isn't it?
The greatest thing to happen since POMO Wednesday, the greatest thing to happen since POMO Monday, etc.
Well, if things continue to be so good with the markets how can a QE2 be justified or are markets rallying on the fact that QE2 is all but guaranteed with these crappy numbers?
Toga, Toga, Toga... POMO, POMO, POMO... Maybe it will fluke into PM instead of AAPL today?
When it is directly provide to the playaz to buy the A-Paul it would be life ending for it to end up somewhere else. These are all inside soldiers.
S&P up 20 handles and climbing.
Truly, why even bother now? They've already successfully detached it from reality. Why wouldn't they just go for it now?
They are all crowding in one side of the room now with only one exit. You just need someone to yell fire and take one for the team.
There is an old story about a little boy who was always optimistic. He always found the good side of everything. He drove people crazy. One day his parents decided to teach him that sometimes bad things happened without a good side. So on his birthday they filled his room with horse manure.
The little boy jumped in with great abandon and started searching. When asked what he was looking for he replied, "with all this manure there has to be a pony in here somewhere!"
Keep searching for that pony stock market!
So basically the hedge funds are jamming stocks higher for their EOQ reports to minimize redemptions???
That is the only reason I can see for this insane move the past 2 weeks.
I was thinking that too. Which means stocks will sell off as they run the exits before the eon or right after. Either way next week is a tanker,
Who would leave 9-12% monthly gains on the table and not take profits?
I would since 9-12% MONTHLY GAINS seem to be the "new normal".
This makes no sense with the idea that they want to do QE2, probably already are which explains the move, how can they make the argument that the markets need support with the markets going straight up?
The suspense is killing all reason and logic in investing. They are deliberately stalling QE2 and people are speculating on when it will be announced. The FED is playing us and they know they have the persuasiveness to do so.
I think they will keep doing this for as long as the effects continues. You should short the shit when they do finally announce QE2, though the SPY may be at 1500 by then.
Argument? Sense? Thoughtcrime!
It's not enough that you obey QE2. You must love QE2.
There are so many hedge funds in the market. I really don't think any single hedge funds can move the market this much. And it's hard to believe there could be collusion on this scale.
As if individual traders are making this market.
It's not hard to believe that a lot of HFT programs are running similar algos.
This makes sense. And your theory will be tested in two more weeks. End of FY10 also.
Headlne:
Market Soars on Shitty Housing Numbers
+1 LOL, With headlines like that, I want to subscribe to your newspaper.
Money Pits Bitchez
I simply do not understand the need for new homes anyway, Is The US low on stock? LMAO
Screaming in the forest and no one is listening. Long QE perpetuity
Don't forget - fewer houses being built is a positive. Helps offset inventory imbalance.
/sarc
Or if the numbers are so terrible it must be near the bottom, which means it's all up from here...
POMO Arigato Mr. Roboto..POMO
+ 1140
LOL
this money has nowhere to go. yeah..."this equity market's had its balls ripped off for a decade." think that made these bastards lazy? not everyone got stuck behind a friggin' computer screen. the bond guys on the other hand....
The number is still likely overstated as the Census survey does not take into account contract cancellations, and you can bet your ass there were some.
Your article is forgiving. Shadow inventory indicates a two year supply in housing. But people squatting in homes and buying Ipods and Ipads is good news.
The two new homebuilders here are hiring. Not kidding.
Really? The home builders here have shut their doors, havent hammered a nail in months. Not kidding.
Yes. I was in awe- both of them had "now hiring" on their billboards. Apparently this 2 year supply of REO's and SS's do not exist. Nor does shadow inventory.
Party on, Ben! Party on, Timmah!! What a fuking joke.
Long live chairman Ben. Long live chairman Ben. Long live chairman Ben.
Let's print more dollars and buy all other currencies (err.. probably except Chinese Yuan since the smart ass there does not allow big Ben to do that).
I think it's Robo who has been bullish for the last month(s) or so...
The man might be onto something, no?
I don't want to offend the delicate sensibilities of the golden-bear club, but...
Is anyone here friends in "real" life? I mean it there any actual gatherings where we can meet and talk.
The people I deal with daily are usually in the herd.
Call the 888 number and ask if you can buy Tyler dinner and drinks. It's worth a try.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/FBR+Capital+Raises+Price+T...
FBR Capital Raises Price Target on AMD (AMD) Despite Lower Q3 GuidanceSeptember 24, 2010 7:15 AM EDT
Analysts at FBR Capital raised their price target on AMD (NYSE: AMD) from $9 to $10, despite lowered guidance from the chip maker after the close. The firm is maintaining a Market Perform rating on the stock.
As the the news was expected, the firm "view today's move as a positive resolution of expected overhang and think that more investors can consider AMD long positions now that some of the bad news is out."
FBR cut 2010 EPS estimate from $0.48 to $0.40 and 2011 estimate from $0.60 to $0.55.
Even in the good ol days AMD was a dog.
If I want chips I'd go to intel.but intel is just a value trap. They also pissed away good capital with mcafee.
AMD is an example of good tech with bad management...it's tough to walk uphill when Intel sets the grade at a percentage of their choosing.
Agreed on McAfee billions being a major-stupid move, but maybe they've got some kind of chip-integrated sec solution that needs a crappy front-end.
http://www.techpowerup.com/131311/Intel-Wants-$50-for-Software-Unlock-of-CPU-Features.html
intc is running out of ideas (also see arm, nvda tegra, SoC's etc)
apologies for my ignorance, but this looks like either they reached the ceiling in hw development or the marginal cost of hw performance exceeds marginal revenue
We live in Bizarro universe.
Years ago, I was short over 100k on a stock called ftek. It was in a shitty market with a product that did very little. I knew they would report an earnings miss because friends in the coal fired industry said their gadget sucked. The earnings report came out, it missed, like .05 instead of .08 and the stock went from 25 to 35.
I was in complete fucking awe. So I did the only thing I could do. I shorted and put twice as much and eventually covered at 20. I made 20k and was in that mess almost 300k. That POS trades like a penny stock today. Like it should have back then. That's when I packed up my shit and quit trading. Really.
Wise choice. ;)
The 'perpetual Q/E' is ridiculous, theyre seeing if they can swing public opinion for November. Theyre certain that we idiots think 'stock market=economy'. I dont know what day is scheduled as final call to look at the polling data and see if Obamas people dont get creamed in an election, Im guessing mid Oct till they see people hate them all even more and they pull the plug on HAL2010 stock pumping bot.
This is the longest tragic play I have ever watched. Every actor has been killed or fell off the stage yet the show continues.
Wow, Dow up 200 on this wonderful news.
Main St hates wall St. Why would they cheer any gains there without jobs?
Looks like they are gonna try for S&P 1150. Might as well. Perhaps they don't care about price since they have a bottomless checkbook, perhaps they want everyone having to crawl to the the gov, the Fed, or the banks if they want a job or a house, cause at this rate they are gonna own all of both of those pretty soon.
Back of the cocktail napkin:
Things got really crazy with housing around 2004, so did we just cross the equilibrium line? If so, there is still some serious downside left.
The purpose of the Maiden's are to facilitate the orderly unwinding over time.
1) Ramp the market with FED funny money.
2) Inwestors feel richer and seek out other asset classes.
3) Banks have what you are looking for with their supply of real estate foreclosures.
4) Banks restrict supply causing a surprising spike and subsequent bubble.
5) 2005-2008 all over again.
Keep your eye on the bouncing ball.
Absolute, total, unadulterated bullcrap.
NSA number: 25,000 sales.
Period.
2,000 below last month's revised NSA number.
Worse?
Only 1,000 above the worst month for new home sales January 2010 which was 24K.
Last year the NSA number was 36K. The "not so bad" bullcrap and homebuilders are whistling past the graveyard. This bullshit will not hold forever and I smell a blowoff top in almost every market, gold and silver included. Not sure of the timing but this data just validates that the durables order was an optimistic mistake just like they did in late 2008 and got their balls snapped off in Q4 08 and Q1 and Q2 of 2009. This bear trap is going to kill some dipshits, watch and see.
EDIT TO ADD:
Only a little over 4,000 homes sold above the $400K price line NATIONWIDE.
12K homes under $200K. The market is not improving it is f'ing collapsing. WAKE UP AMERICA!
Homeowner society is rediculous. You have to paint, re-roof, yardwork, etc. R&M stuff.
Not everybody is cut out for that.
It was a bad idea. It is a bell curve concept.
It is work!
This is notable considering mortgage rates are also at historic lows.
Of course it is. But it doesn't matter. Bte!
Home equity is in the toilet, employment losing millions and those getting paid are getting less.
But somehow, some way, people will get out there and buy buy buy.
Indeed it is. The Alt-A and Option Only ARMs have started to reset and it looks as if our mortgage market is getting into the meat of those contracts starting NOW.
I anticipate that a two-year inventory of homes on the market will be something the Feds will be begging for when this is all said and done.
I still kick myself that I am paying on my underwater mortgage still, but it's a roof over the head of me children and wife.
Yes, 2011 is peak year for resets...
http://www.housingmarketnews.net/images/newreset.jpg
This month is a local maximum as well.
So my house is sitting at an inflated $87.50 a square foot, bought it at $100 a square foot. I wonder at what level will I decide to pull the cord and default. Neighbor is at two years of non-payment and I feel like a schmuck.
gracias, great link
Some how George Bailey got his wish, he was never born, and America has been transformed into one big Pottersville!
Stupid fucking angels.
Don't let them get their wings. They'll shit on your head then.
Geithner, "Yes! Yes! Wheel me over by the window."
America? That place went out of business years ago!
I prefer the lost footage episode on SNL where they all beat the shit out of Potter
forgive me here as this is probably a noob question, but can someone explain why a higher Existing Home Sales number than forecast is a good thing? Particularly when we have higher unemployment and LESS new home sales? So more people out of a job, and more homes being sold for whatever reason(because they have to/forced to) and less NEW homes being sold....is a good thing for the economy?....
I know its not to do with this post about New Home Sales, but I've been wondering anyway.
Because it has an appearance of growth, and thus can be spun by the MSM to the herd as a revival of the ponzi economy.
For the rest of us, it just reaffirms that we are no where near the end of this mess yet.
pfft, 150 on the dow bounce before POMO.
It gets seriously nutziod after 11.
I'm going to go hide now.
Here are our company figures for houses that required environmental work in order to close in September over the last four years:
2010: 8
2009: 16
2008: 34
2007: 39
Yes, that housing recovery is just around the corner.
So, looks like you're saying that the quality of existing houses being sold is improving, then? ;)
Yes.
There's plenty of downside left. I expect prices to drop another 20-25% in the next year. That's just a guess but a significant drop is supported by a number of different parameters.
Yesterday, being the first day of autumn, means that the "recovery summer" has officially ended.
Moral of the story is figure out how you want to invest and then do the exact opposite. Rational thought will not make any money in this market. In my entire life I haven't been this wrong, this often.
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