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New Normal For Retirement Benefits?

Leo Kolivakis's picture




 


Submitted by Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse.

Bloomberg's Brian Parkin reports that German Government Forecasts Pension Growth Over Next 15 Years:

German
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government forecast state pensions will grow
over the coming years, defying political and other critics who say that
worker and company contributions will have to rise to finance growth.

 

Even
with a freeze on pension increases this year and next, payments for
retirees in the compulsory plan will grow by an average 1.6 percent per
year to 2023, the Berlin-based Labor Ministry said today. Monthly
contributions from gross pay will vary from 19.9 percent now to 20.6
percent in 2023, it said.

 

Labor Minister Franz Josef
Jung hailed the pension program as a success, “proving itself, not
least in the economic crisis.” The plan is “secure in spite of
demographic change,” Jung said in an e-mailed statement.

 

Merkel’s
coalition, which took office on Oct. 28, is under pressure to keep vows
made to pensioners, who make up a quarter of the population and help
prop up private consumption in an economy pegged to shrink the most
since World War II this year.

 

About 20 million pensioners are in
receipt of 23 million pensions this year, according to the Labor
Ministry.

 

Maintaining the
pace of pension increments to 2023 will force the government to sell
more bonds each year, according to critics including Alexander Bonde, a
lawmaker with the opposition Green Party. About 80 billion euros ($120
billion) from Merkel’s 288 billion-euro budget will be spent on topping
up pension coffers this year.

 

If pensions rise as Jung
predicts, retirees paying average monthly premiums into the plan and
with 45 years of salaried work behind them will be paid 1,533 euros per
month, according to the ministry Web site. That compares with 1,224
euros now.

 

Demographic Change

 

The
BDB banking group said that the government underestimates the pace of
demographic change. The number of policy-holders of so-called Riester
Plans, a private retirement plan backed by government subsidies, grew
the slowest in five years in the third quarter, the BDB said.

 

“Unless
we can boost motivation to buy capital-supported plans we’ll face big
problems,” the federation said on its Web site. The group’s members
including Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG sell private policies.

 

The
working population of 20 to 64 year-olds accounts for 50 million out of
Germany’s total population of 82 million at present, the Federal
Statistics Office said today in a report. That will shrink
“drastically” to about 40 million between 2020 and 2035 as the “baby
boomers” of the 1960s retire, it said.

In Ireland, Stephen Collins of the Irish Times reports that Brian Cowen gave a strong hint that the old age pension will not be cut in the budget on December 9th:

Speaking
at a pension fund awards ceremony at the RDS in Dublin, he outlined the
measures introduced over the years to improve the living standards of
pensioners and said it was not his objective “to undo all of that good
work now”.

 

Mr Cowen told the audience at the European Pension
Funds awards ceremony they should be mindful of the large number of
people who didn’t have a lot of disposable income to participate in
savings schemes or pension investments and relied on the State pension.

 

“It
is my intention in dealing with the budgetary crisis to ensure that
those people will not be adversely affected by the decisions we have to
make,” he said.

 

Mr Cowen said budgets
were not simply about balancing books – as important as that was, they
were also about acknowledging what was important in society. “I am
proud of the provision we made for pensioners during the good years. It
is not my objective to undo all of that good work now.”

 

He said
the financial crisis had caused a lot of worry for everyone,
particularly elderly people. “Many pensioners around the country have
been prudent in investing in pension funds in order to provide for
themselves in their retirement years. I am saddened that those people
who have been prudent and have been conscious of their obligations to
themselves and their families in making such pensions provision, have
had their investments greatly depleted as a result of the recent
financial markets collapse.”

 

He added that with the collapse of
the financial markets and share values, those people who looked to the
banks as the safest return on their investment had seen their faith
shattered. “Once regarded as blue-chip shares, they have now seen the
value of shares in financial institutions virtually wiped out in a very
short time.”

Jonathan Sibun of the Telegraph reports that pension deficits in Britain underestimated by £268bn:

 

Lloyds'
stated pension obligations are €14.2bn shy of the real size of the
deficit, while RBS's are €13.3bn behind, according to research from
equity research house AlphaValue.

 

British
Airways, which is pursuing a merger with Spanish airline Iberia, boasts
the third highest shortfall at €10.5bn. The size of BA's pension
deficit is being monitored by the airline's shareholders as Iberia has
retained the right to walk away from the agreed merger pending the
outcome of a triennial review at the UK carrier's pension fund.

 

Other companies boasting sizable differences between actual and stated
pension obligations included Barclays, BT Group, GlaxoSmithKline and
HSBC, according to the research.

 

BT revealed last week that
its final-salary pension scheme deficit had more than doubled in the
past six months from £4bn to £9.3bn. The change came as a result of
movements in bond yields and inflation expectations, as well as changes
to accounting regulations.

 

AlphaValue said many of the 430
companies monitored underestimated the true value of their pension
deficits by assuming a low level of wage inflation and by adopting a
high discount rate, a measure used to value pension funds' liabilities.

 

The research house said 31
companies had underestimated their deficits by 40pc or more, with UK
firms among the worst offenders.

 

"More than one-third
of 2008 pensions obligations – some €1,100bn – are recorded at UK
companies, as this is where the largest companies operate with the
largest defined-benefit commitments. The bulk of the
"non-accounted-for" pension deficit is also with UK corporates,
especially the banks, as they use rather high discount rates compared
with non-UK peers," said Pierre-Yves Gauthier, a director at
AlphaValue.

 

Companies are believed to be attempting to reduce
stated pension deficits by scaling back projected wage rises and
maximising the discount rate. Last year, average wage inflation fell
from 3.7pc to 3.6pc, while discount rates grew from 5.38pc to 5.57pc.
AlphaValue said the "spread" helped save European companies about €51bn
in 2008.

 

Mr Gauthier said many companies had made efforts to
correct valuations this year, but warned that volatile market
conditions made it important to find consistent measurements, above all
on discount rates.

 

Official figures from companies' 2008
accounts show pension deficits at the European companies growing 22pc
last year to €280bn.

 

The AlphaValue research showed an
additional €300bn of unrecognised deficits, the equivalent of 9pc of
shareholders' equity.

In Australia, Richard Lowe of Global Pensions reports that AMP to increase its pension contribution to 12%:

Australian
superannuation provider AMP will increase the pension contributions it
pays for its employees to 12% from the mandatory 9% by 2014.

 

AMP
chief executive Craig Dunn announced the decision during a business
lunch in Melbourne, adding fuel to the ongoing debate around raising
the current minimum employer contribution rate.

 

He
said: "Australians, by and large, aren't natural savers. In fact, the
average Chinese consumer saves at almost 30 times the rate that the
average Australian does.

 

"It's been our mandatory savings in
superannuation which have helped cushion the worst impacts of the
global financial crisis. But of course, we should and can always do
more."

 

The announcement follows separate comments by John
Brogden, chief executive of the Investment and Financial Services
Association (IFSA), and Chris Bowen, minister for financial services,
superannuation and corporate law, that Australians would benefit from
an increase in the mandatory contribution rate. (Global Pensions; November 2, 2009)

 

Treasury
secretary Ken Henry claimed in a recent report that the current
contribution level of 9% would provide "adequate" retirement income for
most Australians, but Bowen argued "adequate" is not enough.

 

Dunn
said: "We've decided, as a company, to increase the superannuation
contribution we pay for our employees to 12 per cent by 2014. In fact,
in our view, the issue of whether 9% is enough needs to be debated more
broadly."

 

The comments were made during a Trans-Tasman Business
Circle lunch, which Dunn used as an opportunity to explain the
reasoning behind AMP's proposed merger with the Australian and New
Zealand operations of AXA Asia Pacific.

AXA Asia Pacific rejected the A$11bn acquisition offer by AMP earlier this month, claiming the bid undervalued the company.

In the United States, Carla Fried of CBS Money Watch reports that the indicator to watch is the 401 (k) match:

A
year ago, the 401(k) match became an expendable benefit for a big slice
of Corporate America panicked about their revenue prospects in the
throes of the financial crisis and recession.
Watson Wyatt says about 25 percent of large firms it surveys reduced or suspended their match in 2009. An unofficial tab kept by the Pension Rights Center suggests that plenty of smaller firms followed suit.

 

401(k) Match Policy Signals Better Job Outlook

 

A new survey from Watson Wyatt
suggests employers are slowly easing out of panic mode. Of firms that
cut their match this year, 35 percent say they intend to reverse that
decision in the next six months. That’s a sharp increase from June,
when just 5 percent said they were going to reinstate their match in
the near future.

 

Granted, 35 percent is not 95 percent, but the
trend suggests that employers are now less concerned about layoffs and
more focused on how to retain existing employees and attract new hires.

 

It’s Back — Sort of

 

Seventy
percent of firms in the survey say they will reinstate the same
matching formula that was in place before the cut/suspension. But 13
percent say they are coming back with a lower match, and 17 percent say
they will now peg their match to annual profits. Seems we have
ourselves an emerging New Normal for retirement benefits, too.

 

Market-Timing Employers Cost Employees Plenty

 

With Bill Bernstein’s strawberry and nausea retirement advice still
fresh in my mind, it’s frustrating to realize that the firms that
pulled the plug on their match in 2009 kept their employees from maxing
out on the chance to buy low. It’s not just that employees lost their
2009 match; they also lost having that match participate in the 60
percent market rally since the March low. I’m guessing that’s not a
strategy mentioned in the 401(k) educational material employers
dutifully provide to plan participants.

In
Charleston, West Virginia, two bills before the House and Senate would
allow cities to enroll new hires in newer, less expensive pension
programs. They also give cities 40 years to pay off their unfunded liability and any interest that has accumulated on that liability.

In
New Jersey, Elise Young reports that New Jerseyans will fund pension
benefits for a lobbyist earning $191,000 a year – just one of scores of
non-government employees, including high-paid executives and their
staffs, who are entitled to public retirement payouts.

In Russia, Sergei Nikolayev reports in the Moscow Times that Central Bank Averts $44M Pension Fund Heist:

The
Central Bank has foiled an attempt to steal 1.25 billion rubles ($44
million) from the state’s Pension Fund using counterfeit documents, a
scheme that bankers say couldn’t have been carried out by ordinary
criminals.

 

The Pension Fund discovered the theft Monday when
it received a notice from the Central Bank that 1.25 billion rubles had
been transferred from its account, Marita Nagoga, a spokeswoman for the
fund, said Tuesday. She said the Pension Fund had made no such request
to the Central Bank, which holds the fund’s accounts.

 

The
Pension Fund said the transactions were carried out after the Central
Bank received two counterfeit payment orders, with fake signatures and
stamps from the fund. The purported swindlers went to the bank’s Moscow
Branch No. 5 on Friday evening, where they first managed to transfer
1.25 billion rubles, set aside for construction and planning work, to
the Pension Fund’s account with the Central Bank. Then they made a
second transfer, moving those funds to an account controlled by
Spetstekhprom at Kuban bank, an Interior Ministry source said.

 

The
two transfers were completed Friday, and on Saturday the criminals
began transferring the funds to a variety of different banks, including
some abroad. By Tuesday evening, the Central Bank had managed to block
the transfers and return the money to the Pension Fund.

 

A
secretary at Kuban, who only gave her first name, Irina, told Vedomosti
that the bank’s managers could not speak to journalists because they
had all been taken away for questioning after their office was
searched.

 

Kuban has existed since 1989, but little is known
about the lender, which doesn’t have a web site. According to the
Interfax-100 bank ratings, Kuban has assets of 223 million rubles
($7.75 million) and capital of 42 million rubles, and it is not part of
the state’s deposit insurance system.

 

Alexei Frenkel, a
banker convicted last year for organizing the 2006 murder of Central
Bank First Deputy Chairman Andrei Kozlov, listed Kuban among the banks
that he said were unfairly denied access to the deposit insurance
program because they were suspected of money laundering.

 

The
bank was led by Marina Burova for several years, but her place was
recently taken by Vladimir Zasorin, according to the Bankrange.ru
industry portal.

 

A bank executive said it was possible that
the lender was purchased before the attempted theft in order to carry
out the heist. Vedomosti was not able to confirm with the Central Bank
the changes in management or the possible change in ownership at Kuban.
People who answered the bank’s telephones declined to identify the
lender’s director.

 

If the Central Bank believed that a bank
was being used to steal money, it could block the lender’s
correspondent account, said Andrei Yegorov, first deputy chief of SB
Bank. Then cash could only be withdrawn in person, but the criminals
either decided not to do that, or the bank was not the end point for
the theft, he said.

 

The Central Bank sees all ruble
transactions within the country, and it takes several days for ruble
payments to go abroad, which means the regulator has plenty of time to
look into them, said a vice president at another bank.

 

The
bankers said they were baffled, however, that the swindlers were able
to bring counterfeit payment orders to the Central Bank.

 

All
banks are Central Bank clients, and officials at several lenders
explained how things work at the regulator’s offices. Outsiders aren’t
even allowed into Central Bank branches, which require a special pass.
The passes are typically given to two or three representatives for
Central Bank clients who have legal authority to order transactions.

 

Even
if a client gets a new representative, preparing the entry pass takes
several days. The electronic system means that it’s easy to see who has
entered branches and at what time, one of the bankers said.
Additionally, there are video cameras monitoring the work of all
Central Bank tellers.

 

A teller is not required to check the
authenticity of a payment order, another banker said. They just look to
make sure that the bank managers’ signatures are present and that the
stamps match those on record at the bank. As a result, any
representative who regularly visits the Central Bank could conceivably
counterfeit and deliver faked documents.

 

Nagoga
said all of the Pension Fund’s transactions were done electronically
and that no one from the fund brought requests to the Central Bank on
Friday evening. A well-informed banker said the Central Bank would not
necessarily find anything suspicious about the order, since such
payments are not uncommon, but that an unfamiliar representative would
likely put a teller on guard.

 

“The Central Bank has created a
commission, led by First Deputy Chairman Georgy Luntovsky, to carry out
an internal investigation,” the Central Bank said.

Finally, George Frey of BusinessWeek reports that European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet on Wednesday urged European insurers and
pension funds to have sufficient capital on hand, stressing they are "systemically important" to the financial system:

Trichet,
who has long encouraged the eurozone's commercial banks to build their
capital reserves, noted the companies play an important role in
ensuring stability due to their size, investments, interconnectedness
and the economic function of insurance.

 

In
remarks at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt, Trichet warned there are
"reasons to be cautious about the durability of the recent recovery of
insurers' profitability."

 

He said "the supportive
environment for investment income is unlikely to continue once market
conditions begin to normalize." He did not elaborate.

 

"Although
there are few solvency concerns facing the industry, there is no room
for complacency in this environment. Insurers will have to be mindful
of having sufficient capital buffers in place.

 

"The default of an insurer could cause financial distress in these sectors."

 

He
said euro zone insurers and pension funds had about euro6 trillion ($9
trillion) in investments at the end of June and that they held about
euro435 billion of debt securities issued by euro area banks,
representing about 10 percent of the total debt securities outstanding
at those banks.

 

The eurozone counts 16 countries sharing the
single currency. Some of its biggest insurers include Allianz SE and
Munich Reinsurance AG in Germany and AXA SA of France.

 

Insurers
and reinsurers, which sell backup coverage to insurance companies to
spread risk in the event of catastrophe, are closely watched for their
investment decisions and assessment of the economy because they
generally invest large sums of premium capital.

 

"Most of the
time, given the typically long-term investment horizons of insurance
companies and pension funds, they are a source of stability for
financial markets.

 

However, due to the sheer size of their investment
portfolios, reallocations of funds or the unwinding of positions by
these institutions have the potential to move markets. In extreme
cases, that could put at risk financial stability by triggering large
swings in asset prices," Trichet said.

I have long
argued that insurers and pension funds need to be monitored by
regulatory agencies that respond to systemic risks. Unfortunately, the
New Normal for retirement benefits looks a lot like the old normal
based on chicanery and deceit. When will we ever learn?

 

 

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Thu, 11/19/2009 - 05:56 | 135587 Chopshop
Chopshop's picture

Great piece Leo !  Quality data points and important metrics.  Pensions/ endowments and especially the "fund managers" within insurance companies posing as asset managers are simply terrible investors without the first inclination, let alone idea of how, to trade.  

 

[7/18/2008 6:50:41 PM] <Chopshop> its also a good thing that insurers / re-insurers have budgeted extra dollars for an increase in extreme damage ( grade III of V ) claims .. oh wait, they haven't , oops... well at least such instances are down significantly as their anal-ysts anticipated ... oh wait, they're up significantly , oops ... well at least insurance companies ( as a crude group on the whole ) have done a good job in managing their books since their budgeting was crap .. oh wait, "they" ( as a crude group reference ) own some of the worst toxic sludge en masse ( 2nd / 3rd rate money mkt funds, lol ) , oops .... well at least the managers / investment officers of such highly esteemed institutions have: a solid handle on the credit climate / cycle; a firm understanding of the liquidity spigot and correlative sentiment indices, etc, etc ... oh wait, many, not all, but many of these CIO/ CMS etc ( top brass ) are basically kudlow klown junkies , oops

[7/18/2008 6:57:12 PM] <Chopshop> 2007 vintage paper ~ meaning its period / year of origination ~ and referring primarily to RMBS but also including CDO / CDS etc. is T H E worst slime imaginable .. im talking deep " Florifornia " paper ... FL, CA, TX, NM, AZ, NV, OH, MI .. stuff being valued RIGHT NOW @ 55- 70 cents on the dollar of Origination ( a VERY important distinction between Origination ~ Org. and MMB ~ mark to make believe ) ... it *MIGHT* fetch 42-47 cents on the Org. $ if you got a real sucker on that line or a junkie fiend like the FED / PPT ... 36 is next stop on way to 27-24 before teenagers

Thu, 11/19/2009 - 12:13 | 135790 Rainman
Rainman's picture

+ 1 ........" Kudlow Klown Junkies " meet Armageddon. What a nightmare !!

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