- advertisements -
Prior to rates rising the feds will have begun to normalise the balance sheet.
Surprises will have to come from a change in QE policy first - such as for example signalling 1.QE will be completed short of the announced target and then 2. existing amounts will run off as they mature and then 3. existing assets will be sold.
Number 1 has already been signalled if the US economy remains 'so strong'
The fed does not raise the federal funds rate but rather acts in the market to cause the FFR to rise. The FFR will rise once the current level of reserves falls back towards a normal level where the current huge amount of reserves has no purpose in the system at all other than to mean that few banks have any requirement to borrow reserves and drive the FFR higher.
Whatever screws the working family and household is what they will do.
Whatever pleases the banks and the elites chortling and snortling their golden mammon the FED will do.
UNTIL THEY ALL HANG!
They will try and preserve the Fed. That means raising rates.
Yes, I think you have a point.
Raising rates would crush housing but the FED doesn't give a shit, they have already backstopped the banks.
Raising rates would crush PM's and the average household while inflating away their (our) debt.
The Fed will keep giving free money to the banks to try and get them solvent, and buying US Treasuries to support government spending. They just won't talk about it because that is counter-productive.
Great read, but I'm left wondering 1 of 2 things:
I am sure that the phone is ringing off the hook from the corporate types squawking about their inflationary margin squeezes. The boneheads at the Fed are going to try something expedient and worthless. It will look something like this: declare victory, mutter something about stable conditions, make no mention of inflation, and stretch out QE2 from June all the way out to July, and be noncomittal about QE3.
The market response: a one day commodity correction, followed by a Pinnichio theory response of running oil prices up another $10 over the next two weeks.
Barnake AKA The Printer running the show ?Why we need those parasites to run our economy ? Like their is none in US exceptthose parasites to know about economy and all the rest are clueless about it.In my opinion is all about control. They have it and they can do whatever they want whenever they want.And i believe all their books are cooked you will never know the truth till and independent audit will be done.
PS. election are next year and you will find more and more garbage on those charts because politicians need reelection funds.
Wake up America
Rate increase. Not holding my breath till that happens. Or, if it does, do I here a 1,000 pt. drop in the Dow in 2 days.
OR... these statements are pure propaganda purposely delivered by the bankster-liars that would be most believed.
The Fed constantly says things that are overt blatant lies to manipulate decisions of everyone outside the club of their bankster owners. Inside information is one way they make astronomical profits.
But even as a matter of the economy in general, the fall of the US dollar below 71 might (and should) lead to the completel collapse of the dollar. They don't want that... they want a controlled demolition; controlled by them.
So, they want to stop the dollar fall BUT they know they can't afford to raise interest rates because the economy can't afford it, and the government of the USSA certainly can't affort higher interest rates.
So they are left with these blatant lies to attempt to slow or reverse the fall of the dollar while not actually doing anything real to justify it. In other words, fraud and deceipt as usual.
Of course, the analysis of this article is possibly correct. But that's also why their statements are effective lies and manipulation.
If their deceit doesn't work, I figure the next step is for the Fed to "raise rates from 0.00% to 0.25%", which isn't really a raise at all, since they're at 0.00% to 0.25% now. Or maybe they'll actually raise it by 0.25%... but then never raise it again. Making their owner-banks insanely rich is all the fed cares about. Pretending to make "the first in a series" of small rate hikes will scare the bejesus out of just about everyone else, and thus probably support the dollar... for a while longer.
It is all fraud.
The way I look at this is as part of continum. With real estate poised to go over another perhaps much bigger cliff, taking the rest of the US enconomy with it, with what is likely to be a drag on profits and growth due to inventory shortages from Japan, higher gas prices and with companies still not kicking into create many new private sector jobs, and the muni markets on the edge, tons of stimulus being removed in the upcoming budgets due to cuts in social services for the most needed, the GDP is likely to hit an inflection point followed by a sharp drop as these stimulative withdrawls meet the actual consumer economy head on in a few months.
If the geniuses at the Fed don't see this coming I would be very suprised. I truly believe Friday's actions are primarily the Fed doing a unified jaw boning and coordinated media/newsletter and blogosphere chatter to defend the dollar and slow the runaway PM markets.
It boils down to either the dollar or the entire US economy and the stock market. Let me paint a scenario. If QE were to stop in June what would happen.
Since the Fed is the primary and buyer of last resort for US treasuries today, demand would dry up and rates would climb fast, probably quickly reaching, 4, 5, 7 and even 10 percent within less than a year as debt continues to drown the market.
Suddenly instead of paying 0 - 1 % on our national debt of $14 + trillion, we are paying 10% or $1.4 trillion, consuming most of the discretionary budget and before you know it throwing the residential and comercial real estate markets over the cliff, and taking half the banks down with them and the Dow heads towards 5000 while gold climbs to those levels as federal and state tax revenues plummet and self sustaining cyclone of dropping tax revenues and climbing deficits and debt triggers further distrust of the US$ fiat system.
Personally, after having lived through decades of MOPE and being able to read the leaves of consequences in regard to the massive and unresolvable catch 22 that 35 or so years of fiat free for all financing has put upon the the world, I don't see an pragmatic or workable solution to QE for the forseeable future.
With that in mind, I all MOPE on the Fed jaw boning and this article. I've been wrong before. Arguments?
Ok, Duffminster, I'll bite.
“[W]hen you go into the grocery to buy a pound of hamburger, why should you worry about how much hamburger you get... if Congress can permit Mr. Bernanke to use his judgment in deciding what a dollar is worth, why shouldn’t he...be able to decide from day to day what a kilogram is worth," i.e., how many kilograms from day to day constitute a pound?
This is your story; we can’t raise interest rates now because we’re in the hole; we need to go deeper into the hole…until we drown.
Yours is the old argument that we’ve got to keep going this way or we’re going to have a catastrophe. Yet, if you look around, we’re having a catastrophe. We’re neutralizing the value of American labor and property; there can be no more tragic occurrence. To be worried about having it fixed by allowing the market to determine interest rates and corporate profits, i.e., to seek their own levels, is to take the driving away from a maniac.
Seth Lipsky, founding editor of the New York Sun, said in a speech delivered February 16 that the issue of the right to the property that comes to us in the form of a salary or is held by us in the form of savings, i.e, property rights, is threatened by the floating dollar. Here's an excerpt from that speech:
“Now, the record is clear in respect of how America’s founders viewed money. Many of them went into the Second United States Congress, where they established the value of the dollar at 371 ¼ grains of pure silver. The law through which they did that, the Coinage Act of 1792, noted that the amount of silver they were regulating for the dollar was the same as in a coin then in widespread use, known as the Spanish milled dollar. The law said a dollar could also be the free-market equivalent in gold. The Founders did not expect the value of the dollar to be changed any more than the persons who locked away that kilogram of platinum and iridium expected the cylinder to start losing mass. In fact, in this same 1792 law, they established the death penalty for debasing the dollar.
“Today, members of the Federal Reserve Board don’t worry about how many grains of silver or gold are behind the dollar. They couldn’t care less. And this is what I believe is the most worrisome threat to property rights today. When the value of a dollar plunges at a dizzying rate—at one point in recent months it collapsed to less than 1/1,400 of an ounce of gold—Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke goes up to Capitol Hill and declares merely that he is “puzzled.” No “new urgency” to redefine the dollar for him. The fact is that we’ve long since ceased to define the dollar, and it can float not only against other currencies but even against 371 ¼ grains of pure silver.
“So, the New York Sun asked, why not float the kilogram? After all, when you go into the grocery to buy a pound of hamburger, why should you worry about how much hamburger you get—so long as it’s a pound’s worth? A pound is supposed to be .45359237 of a kilogram. But if Congress can permit Mr. Bernanke to use his judgment in deciding what a dollar is worth, why shouldn’t he—or some other Ph.D. from M.I.T.—be able to decide from day to day what a kilogram is worth?
“No doubt some will cavil that the fact that the dollar floats makes it all the more reason for the kilogram to be constant. But what’s so special about the kilogram? If the fiat dollar floats, one has no idea what it will be worth when it comes time to spend it. If the kilogram also floats, it will simply be twice as hard to figure out what something we’re buying will be worth. So what if, when we unwrap our hamburger, the missus has to throw a little more sawdust in the meatloaf?
“Or let us consider a compromise. Let’s go to a fiat kilogram—that is, permit the kilogram to float—but apply the new urgency to fixing the dollar at a specified number of grains of gold. To those who say it would be ridiculous to fix the dollar but let the butcher hand you whatever amount of hamburger he wants when you ask for a kilogram, I say, what’s the difference as to whether it’s the measure of money or of weight that floats?
“For that matter, one could go all the way and fix the value of both the kilogram and the dollar but float the value of time. You say you want to be paid $100 an hour. That’s fine by your boss. But he—or Chairman Bernanke—gets to decide how many minutes in the hour. Or how long the minute is. You know you’ll get a kilogram of meat for the price a kilogram of meat costs. But you won’t know how long you have to work to earn the money.
“There was obviously a satirical element to that Sun editorial. But it’s not satirical to say that we are in a dangerous situation in our country in respect of the dollar, and that property rights are very much bound up in the question of money…”
Reference: The Floating Dollar as a Threat to Property Rights
The Founders...established the death penalty for debasing the dollar.
Just finished watching Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. I forgot how much I enjoyed that movie as a kid.
Got me thinking how much the irs and fed are like these two. I always thought how primitive the Bolivian dolts were at having to amass a literal army to take two "Americano Banditos" down, but the parallels are applicable even if it's zinfindel and not merlot affecting the vision.
The irs and fed are lovable enough but the time may come when the populace will have enough of their ways and eventually dispatch them to history. We may look at their life in glowing terms in the future, but the fact remains, they are (were) still a scourge in their/our time.
As you've mentioned, once the basic units of measure have been altered, all bets are off. Time, weights, measures, (purity), coining of money, printing/circulation of "legal tender", recordation of real estate ownership, power of the sword, (the exercise of "capital punishment"), are all sovereign rights granted, issued and retained by a free people and government that need to continue to be held sacrosanct.
The foundation is sound, time to remove and renovate the structure built with straw and sticks. imo.
Is the level of the fed funds anything but symbolic when the banking system is swimming in a trillion-plus sea of excess reserves?
that's the juice for an inflationary surge.
Said in the simplest way..the US Dollar has caught a strong bid...is it telling of a coming hike..I don't know ...but a hike would just bitch slap the risk trade, getting the congress off the FED,s back...
The Fed sees into the future. 80 million Japanese are going to buy/occupy all the empty houses built during the bubble. They are going to finance this with all the US treasures Japan has. The Fed and the BOJ will merge.
Whenever I see that bastard's smug face, it makes me want to do things best not described in a family forum.
It’s disturbing that somebody thinks that the comments of some Fed regional president is related to anything connected with policy. Policy is determined by the OWNERS of the NY Federal Reserve Bank
Goldman Sachs controls the New York Federal Reserve Bank and the New York Federal Reserve Bank controls what Bernanke intends to do with QE, i.e., interest rates and corporate assistance.
As G. Edward Griffin says in The Creature From Jekyll Island: From 1923 onward, the Fed’s open market operations have been carried out by the New York Federal Reserve Bank. The money trust has always been in control.”
Instead of decentralizing banking power from Wall Street, the Congress ended up handing it over to Wall Street; Goldman Sachs’ name is synonymous with the Wall Street money trust.
On December 2, 1981, the New York Times reported that when Open Market Committee meetings are held, Solomon, as NY Fed president, and Volcker, as chairman of the Board of Governors, sit together at the head of the table and relay instructions which they have received from abroad - the City of London.
The “governors” and "regional presidents" are all woven into the same cloth. They’ve all been caught in a total tissue of lies, no matter how they reiterate their innocence and try to portray a balance back and forth that they are some kind of deliberative body, that they all have some kind of independent opinion.
Charles Ferguson, Berkeley filmmaker who made the Academy Award winning documentary “Inside Job,” said, stepping to the podium to receive his award: “I must start by pointing out that three years after a horrific financial crisis caused by fraud, not a single financial executive has gone to jail – and that’s wrong.”
And that’s total control.
Yes. Exactly. That is total control.
And that's precisely what every last individual in the world needs to be crystal clear about. Unfortunately, humans are now dumber than rocks, thanks to other [education and media] programs instituted by those same predators decades ago.
Thanks -fascinating. These people somehow don't figure in the organisational charts publicly aviaalble, or in the impressive graphic in the article above, or have I missed it?
Nicely put there, JR.
A tip of the morning coffee mug to you.
This all sounds so responsible it must a ruse. Raising rates and strengthening the dollar can't work outside of an integrated framework of budget and regulatory reform. Can anyone see that happening? At most I can see this as a ploy to get QEIII. There's a lot of resistance to further easing now but when the Dow hits 10000 again and even the bogus unemployment rates increase people will start screaming for the next fix. Your not really an addict until the first time you realize you can't stop using. Long term the ruse won't matter but it would make a major change in the mid term charts.
The only conclusion is that the fed thinks that it can find enough buyers of treasury debt by raising interest rates, domestically and foreign.
Uncertainty will do that, both foreign with military adventure and domestically with the stock market. The only problem that they have is raising uncertainty in commodity markets, it gets hard to market debt.
The other half of it is, if they raise interest rates, they raise the amount of debt that needs to be marketed. That is the real nexus. That means playing with the rate curve. It does suggest flattening where they buy the long maturities and sell the short. At some point that will blow up and they get an inverted yield curve. That is not far in our future.
haha the fed will never raise rates. whatchu fukin kiddin me mane? pull ur head outta ur ass jack....
During this era we have seen the Fed Funds rates slashed from above 5% to .25% and held there for over a year.
December 2008 to March 2011 looks like more than a year to me. In fact, it looks like 2.25 years. In general, I like my FED analysts to be right on the facts first before they offer interpretation.
All you ever have to do is ask yourself one question about any policy:
Would this benefit the banks?
In the case of a rate hike, the answer is 'No, it would not help the banks.' Therefore, it won't happen.
any rate increase would slaughter the already bed-ridden housing market as well as auto sales
aint gonna happen, makes the debt even harder to pay...rock and a hard place damned if you do and damned if you dont
this article doesn't address the US budget deficit problem, w/o QE3, who the hell will buy US debt?
exactly; these fluff pieces are all that is left to halt a dollar collapse
this disinfo is for the dumb money- may they RIP!
Did Bernanke pay you to write this crap.?
True...PMs could have a major correction in price and the dominant long term trend would not be hurt. In the short run it could wipe out some if they are leveraged and long but it would provide an entry point on the long term trend...
Since all the Fed has left is propaganda manipulation, then don't you think that a significant pullback in PMs price will serve to discredit the entire PM market in the eyes of the sheeple? I'll take the $17 price as an example. Anyone who bought above that, and many have bought significantly higher than that, will be burned big time, and that "barbarous relic" and its "silver sister" will be discredited to the point of scaring many former and potential buyers from ever buying. True, these will be mostly weak hands, but a significantly low enough pullback can burn managers of investment funds to decide they will never be accused of being gold bugs (a perjorative on Wall Street). I can see it being only a temporary situation at best, and the PMs will resume their ascent after the Fed comes back into the market with whatever version of QE-x they already have up their sleeve to further debase the dollar. If one is not nimble in this market, or a strong hand holder of the physical metal, the Fed will crush him. (And isn't that their real "mandate"?)
+1... A major pull back in PMs would be welcomed by me. I would buy more gold/silver and dump more dollars. Last gold purchase was at $1120, last silver at $17... bring on a pull back! I suspect that the buying from SE Asia, India and the Mid East would be overwhelming as well.
Which is why the price of silver will never get down to 17 again until we're talking about the new RentenDollar.
"if the U.S economy continues to grow it may not be needed at all."
Stay away from the Kool-Aid....
Way to strong for you Jack Barnes.
Let me know when the Bernank has been fired.
Call Ben's boss, Lloyd and ask him...
LOL Hoenig is stepping down but now the Fed is going to raise rates while the Benanke is still head of the Fed - LOL pure BS.
If anything they are sending out whispers now so they can talk the market down as an excuse for QE3 to save the markets, world, avoid armageddon etc.
IF anything they are sending out whispers so theu can talk the market down as an excuse for QE3 and to save the world,etc.
The sum of these actions are that the US Federal Reserve has generated credits on its own balance sheet, which have been used to buy up US assets at no *Actual* cost to the Federal Reserve.
This is the main point. The fed can create money out of thin air and buy anything they want.
But there is a cost associated with it. The cost is debasing the dollar, taking a little wealth from you, me, everyone else using dollars.
It's the easiest type of theft ever devised.
Create new fiat, buy real assets, screw everybody else, and send the bill to their grandkids.
As if a 25bps interest rate increase would make any difference. The ECB and BOE may raise rates but it doesnt change the fact that the entire banking system and economy is rotten, they will be providing QE and other extraordinary support before too long again
Long 24 digit calculators, bill counters, elastics and shopping buggies.
Of course by just talking about such things they can move the USD
Yeah, if your an idiot.
The Paper traders, will make some big money on the USD spike.
But, we are looking at a 5-6000pt drop on the Dow.
Anyone that missed the ARTIFICAL run up, cash the hell out now, and buy hard assets.
WE here know if does NOT matter what the USD jumps to, it's just jive job, to keep the Ponzi going a tad longer.
WHAT specifically has changed, to make ONE whit of difference?.
Your looking at 15T nut, and $800,000,000 billion in interest pmts W/OUT an increase in rates.
A .5 raise will murder them, and the dollar.
An interest rate hike would be self mutilation.
Selling UST would be dangerous, just as if the Chinese had sold them.
Housing is still down, job creation is still a joke, oil/gas prices are grinding people into chopped meat again. Local govts are in trouble. Taxes are being raised beyond the breaking point. We are involved in more military problems than we can handle, etc, etc and so forth.
Let's all pray for a headwind on PM's so we can load up more!
HALELUYAH PRAISE THE BULLION!
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertise With Us
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
How to report offensive comments
Notice on Racial Discrimination.