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The New Wall Street Reality
Compliments of j-dub
GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
125K+ jobs lost from GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
unemployment @ 9% = BETTER THAN EXPECTED
unemployment @ 10% = DOW SOARS
unemployment @ 11% = GREEN SHOOT RALLY
unemployment @ 12% = ALREADY FACTORED IN
unemployment = 35% = DOW DROPS 100 POINTS
housing price =1% = RECESSION ENDING
housing collapses = GREEN SHOOT
Housing falls 20% = STABILIZATION
Government spends 1 trillion of OUR dollars = STIMULUS
North Korea fires nuke = RALLY
Israel bombs Iran = 30 MINUTE END OF DAY RALLY
world explodes = ASIA RALLIES
PMI crashes = HUGE RALLY
No jobs are created = RECESSION ALMOST OVER
U.S. debt overwhelming = TOO BUSY RALLYING TO CARE
Consumer stops spending = RETAIL RALLY
Banks are insolvent = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
American auto industry BK = GOOD THING
Banks pass scam stress tests = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
Banks "only need 75 billion = OUT OF THE WOODS
Banks pass a real stress test = NEVER WOULD HAPPEN
Banks pay back tarp = LATE DAY SURGE
Banks can't pay back TARP = EARLY MORNING SURGE
12% mortgage delinquency = GOOD FOR STOCKS
Hundreds of thousands of mortgages underwater = HOUSING BOTTOMED
Dollar rises = RALLY
Dollar crashes = RALLY
Inflation = BULL MARKET
Deflation = BULL MARKET CONTINUES
REFLATION = MASSIVE SHORT COVERING RALLY
Gold rises = STOCKS RALLY
Gold falls STOCKS RALLY BIG
Banks' fake earnings = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
CRE stabilizing= 1000 POINT RALLY
CRE CRASHING = STOCKS SHAKE IT OFF TO RALLY
CONSUMER INSOVENT = CONSUMER IS SPENDING
OIL @ 50 = BULL RALLY
OIL @ 60 = GREEN SHOOT
OIL @ 100 = IMPORTANT RECOVERY SIGN
OIL @ 20 = TAX BREAK
And the one we should all interpret correctly:
NO ONE IS BUYING STOCKS = BILLIONS ON THE SIDELINES
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My one criticism is no mention of Goldman Sachs. Other than that, perfect!
..or mustard seeds. Gotta tweak Kudlow.
lol ... priceless ... thanks for an early morning/late night dose of laughter ..
I don't know whether to laugh or cry!?
So I guess I'll laugh! :-)
I think you just published that secret sauce from Goldman, bet they have it as part of their fancy algos.
That is the funniest fucking thing I have read in some goddamn time. Don't forget the all imporant, Bill Clinton gives KJ a BJ = MASSIVE RALLY ON AMERICAFACE.
Good.
Asia / Europe starting to crumble a bit.
Last week's 5% down in China which led to crude and commodities eating it was completely glossed over.
That's how this whole thing started last time.
I'm laughing all the way to the bank.
good read
Buffett’s Betrayal
http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/08/04/buffetts-betrayal/
anon 25434,
a very good read thank you. what particularly struck me was below the article in the comments the 50/50 split between folks who found the article informative/on point and the folks who were just blatant WB apologists. at this point, i would've expected the split to be slanted towards folks in the first category.
has zero hedge or anyone hear discussed "deep capture"?
http://www.deepcapture.com/tag/jim-chanos/
i have posted the link to that article numerous time on the comment board here, and never have i yielded one single response ... its a shame, that his large scandal has gone under the radar ...
I've mentioned the site, and i have seen it a number of times mentioned here. I particularly love what they report about wikipedia.
An understanding of naked phantom shorts, pump & dump schemes, and narco dollars is essential for seeing the underbelly. I understand they are finally going to ban naked phantom shorts, that's a good thing if it is enforced.
If phantom shares for the purpose of shorts can "exist", I wonder whether phantom shares for the purpose of simply trading can "exist". In this case, prices could easily be manipulated if the number of shares is "flexible" and your cash going in would not be going out to another individual, but would be new cash directly to a potential market maker. Who reconciles the total number of shares in aggregate accounts at any given time now that we don't receive the certs?
Why, the NSCC and DTCC. I've mentioned before that the DTCC is the banks' black box. Its totally corrupt and the one reason why the US cannot pull out of its nose-dive.
I've been a big fan of Deep Capture for over a year. Those guys are doing a great job pulling back the curtain. Their contributor, Jim de Costa, has it nailed IMO.
It's been brought up quite a few times in the comments section; some responded to and some not.
IMO, it's better to not take the focus away from ZH's more immediate goal(s). True, DTCC has been the topic of a few posts - but that was more about certain relations to neighbors/co-tenants. Hopefully the "rabbit hole" eventually tunnels sideways once the target depth is reached, but I have to resist the urge to fire buckshot at every sound in the forest.
Deep Capture was set up by shills of Overstock(dot)com to create a fictional short seller boogie man to justify OSTK's failures. Nice accounting at OSTK by the way.
Jim Chanos is a hero that helps debunk frauds, including government protected frauds, like Enron. "The evil short sellers kept my (insert bogus product/firm here) from succeeding!" Spare me. Be sure to watch the upcoming version of "Wall Street 2" with short sellers as boogie man courtesy of Oliver Stone. It's designed to appeal to the sub-105's. Gordon Gekko destroyed my 401K!
Uh huh. That's why some stocks have/had been on the REG SHO list for over a year. Because there was/is no naked shorting/stock counterfieting problem. And you can't buy all the shares of a company and still watch shares being traded, that just can't happen!
You have got to be kidding me. Those fucking hollywood liberals.
anon 25461,
hope you don't get prostate cancer.
Deep Capture is the ultimate website for understanding Wall St corruption. It's main problem is that it takes a lot of time and energy to read the stories in full and validate the facts by checking all the hyperlinks -- few people, I suspect, are willing to put in this effort. The Wikipedia section is just incredible.
The other great site is solari.com -- once again, it takes a LOT of effort but it's brilliant.
It would be great to see Zero Hedge support these sites.
Max Keiser is also doing a good job covering corruption in detail and Michael Hudson is the best guy when it comes to the bigger picture.
If people really understood what is happening, they would vomit on the spot - especially the retired and almost-retired. The next few years will not be pretty.
We are in for a monster shit bath - i guess
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=as6BdHuR9JUU
that is some bad weed
The big banks are hoarding capital for a coming blood bath and it will be nasty - these things end ugly, they always do. This extends way beyond the reach of Washington - nothing the bureaucrats can do. The scenario is on the horizon. Pack your saddlebags and head for the mountains!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=as6BdHuR9JUU = RALLY!
Choking with laughter and wheezing for breath brings its own unique kind of
(much needed) adrenaline rush... thanks, that truly was priceless
Wealth has not been destroyed like the fucks want you to believe. It has simply been transferred from one entity to another and in no place more than America. Massive transfers of wealth ALWAYS lead to civil unrest and ultimately World War. Wouldn't it be funny that Obama the "Peace Candidate" winds up being the biggest war time president this country has ever seen. It will happen.
Irony is not always funny.
Replace "funny" with "sick". The message is real.
Who to go to war with? Iran? Please. Bomb their electric and petroleum facilities, and they're back in the 1920's. NK? Probably the best thing that could happen to NK (quick demise to their gov't), but that would take about 10 days. China? LOL.
Ain't even a good candidate to start a war with any more! What are we going to doooooooo..!?
you can always bomb yourselves.
dnarby:
Within two years the world economy will be so utterly trashed that China and Russia will both be more than happy to find a scapegoat to keep their citizens in line....and Chicago thugs will be happy as well.
War is almost inevitable if you simply study history and human nature.
Ignorance is the main reason we have come to this point on the timeline of humanity.
No offense up front (ok, perhaps I lie). But are you so ignorant as to NOT realize the political alliances of the world? Iran is bedtime buddies with Russia and China. Iran supplies them with the most important commodity in the world, that being petroleum. Russia and China are both fighting to be well positioned during the economic struggles and (possible) recovery of the world. An attack on Iran by the US or, more likely, its proxy in the middle east known as Israel will quickly burn out of control. Oil speculation in such a scenario will destroy any hope (or semblance) of an economic recovery. The Russians and Chicomms need oil to industrialize their countries as high industry capacity allows for a large military capacity, which in turn is a necessity to be a world power. Iran supplies a large percentage of their oil, hence why they are allied. Any attack on Iran would quickly escalate into a (possible) world war.
NKorea will not get envolved in a war. They have always saber rattled in the past and that is exactly what they are doing now for attention. However, Iran and Israel are no longer just rattling sabers at one another - the swords are drawn and the grimace of war is being bared on their faces. Unless something drastic happens soon there is no way Israel will hold back from attacking Iran's nuclear processing facilities. Iran will strike back with missile launches and things will just go (quickly) downhill from there.
The whole world will feel the effects of the economic pressure from oil shortages. And there is a high probability that the such a war would not be kept in the cofines of the middle eastern theater.
you are absolutly right on every single point, except for this one
And there is a high probability that the such a war would not be kept in the cofines of the middle eastern theater.
I hate Israel, but this is not an expansionist war, nor a war to secure geopolitical positioning. If Israel and Iran go into conflict ( and they probably will ) the war will be led in a small area, not all over the world. Russia, China and the US will surely get involved,but not in a conventional manner, but something like the CIA did in Afghanistan during the 80s, but there will be no global war, just a war with global consequences ( high oil, massive depression etc ) but there wont be a war like WWII.
Furthermore, if Israel uses nuclear weapons on Iran i can guarantee you it will be wiped from the face of the Earth by Syria, Lebanon who will get, make no mistake, Russian nuclear bombs. Again, the only thing that needs to worry us is the global economical consequences of that kinda of war, not the consequences of the war itself ( destruction, refugee question, expansion etc )
we are already at war. economic warfare is being waged from all sides and on all fronts. the question to which I believe each of you refers (and attempts to answer) is who will be fighting the resource wars. there will be more than one. let's not forget about food and drinkable water (the scarcest natural resource on the planet).
You really need a drama to demonstrate the process? Why redistribution of wealth always leads to World Wars? Neither 1st nor 2nd WW were started because of the wealth redistributions. Far from that.
Wars are always fought over the bottom line - money!
"When small men attempt great enterprises, they always end by reducing them to the level of their mediocrity" (c)
With such a mentality you never likely to wage a proper WWIII, money is just a tool, paper, you need it for war, lots of it, but it is never something nations are fighting for, no more that they are fighting it over bullets or cannons.
If I understand it correctly WWII was fought over oil.
Clearly you just don't get it.
Boris:
Clearly you don't have a clue that you are the one that doesn't get it.
Well, even wikipedia less clueless than you are: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_World_War_II
Anon 25449; do you know something we don't??
25449 knows history and 25506 don't.
Historically a war has always followed a market plunge > 50%....yes ww3 is on the way, should be no problem for oil to hit 100$ in that enviroment...
one Roosevelt spoke of peace, yet had war, unrest, and depression. While the other Rough Rider had balls and the world respected him and prospered. Which one do you think Obamer is?
Didn't daddy Rooseveldt shaft the Philippines?
The chicago criminal activist.
The only logic to this market is to destroy all opponents (the resistance - individuals with brains) by moving the market in the opposite direction of reason and logic. Meanwhile, they let their ilk know the inside scoop regarding support prices and direction. Insiders profit on a taxpayer induced market pump, while opponents that believe in free market principles get left behind.
Obama probably thinks he is saving the world by pumping while the bankers use the opportunity to line their pockets, their friends pockets, and pick-pocket yours. Those that don't believe the HOPE message will be destroyed, this is just a test of whether you believe in him and trust him (now is a good time to go long). This is raw unbridled political power and forces all to look back to the state.
If you had a printing press, would you give your friends and family an unlimited supply of funding? If you wanted to destroy opponents, would you defend the printing press and starve them out by reducing liquidity? The Fed has a monopoly on the printing press, as long as you remain locked in this system nobody can compete and they always win. The printing press is the ring of Soron. Audit the Fed, let's see who they have given electronic 1's and 0's to. If Barney Frank stalls it in committee, we'll have to remove his "frank" and replace it with disengenuous - never trust someone with two first names.
I was in the Boston airport late this morning flying to LaGuardia. As I was talking on my phone, I recognized Congressman Barney Frank walking past me. Not wanting to miss the opportunity, I hung up my cell phone and approached Congressman Frank. Here is our conversation:
Me: "Congressman Frank (handshake), why are you holding H.R. 1207 in committee?"
Frank: "What is 1207?"
Me: "Ron Paul’s bill to audit the Fed."
Frank: "Oh, yeah. Ron and I have talked about that. We are going to attach it to a comprehensive monetary Fed bill."
Me: "But you’re not going to water it down, right?"
Frank: "No, we don’t want people to trade off of what the Fed is doing so we don’t want it released the same day."
Me: "Cause the American people deserve to know what the Fed is doing?"
Frank: "That’s what I just said. You come up to me and you’ve got a chip on your shoulder. And I don’t understand it!" Turns and walks away.
(Frank’s statement that he "doesn’t want people to trade off what the Fed is doing" is absurd. An audit takes place after an action. Even releasing it the same day wouldn’t matter as one would need foreknowledge to take advantage of the Fed’s actions in the way Frank is talking about. Besides, the Fed already publishes press releases, policy statements, speeches, etc. In addition, how perverted is it that every investment decision is subject to the actions of a small group of central planners?)
Now, to be fair, I should have introduced myself to Congressman Frank and thanked him for some really great piece of legislation he had introduced – except that as a libertarian, I couldn’t think of anything worthwhile to thank him for – but I was excited and wanted to catch him before he boarded his plane (he was flying to Reagan, one gate down from mine). However, I was pleasant, courteous, and respectful during the entire encounter and would have gladly thanked him for his time given the chance. Instead Congressman Frank stormed off like a petulant child.
I guess when it comes to politicians and their constituents (read employees and their bosses) courtesy and respect are a one-way street.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/jacobs/jacobs7.1.1.html
Well played, well played...I think I might have punched him in the nose right then and there.
Pete
Are you serious? LMAO! that is awesome.
He always storms off like a petulant child when someone asks him tough questions.
Congrats for having the balls to confront him.
For more hilarity check out GMAC's results. Gotta love a $3.9b loss on $1.3b in revenue.
They vow to continue ResCap because it's in the shareholders' interests. Whodat? Treasury?
But it's all good. The FDIC would never guarentee their bonds if its wasn't a solid outfit.
Great fun reading TD, even though I am hurting from my shorts.
Makes us yearn for the Bush days, when everyone's expectations are low. With a smooth talker in the White house, everyone thinks he is sharp and intelligent and will save us from the financial and industrial vested interests. I am still unsure whether Mr O is being led by the nose because he is dumber than we think he is, or whether he is part of the establishment.
Obama, shmomama, he has nothing to do with it. Capital needs to be hoarded for the coming blood bath! Everything is more simple than it seems or than it deems ...
Obama is as hardcore as any criminal in history.
I think the former - he is dumb and is being played like a puppet.
I yearn for the Bush days too - he sucked, but at least you knew what you were getting.
anon 25472,
you have enough evidence in the public domain at the present time to be able to reasonably, assuredly choose your second opinion regarding bam-bam. in my opinion of course.
Are the gravity defying equities telling something other than market manipulation or a V shaped recovery - Could this be the warning tremors of a significant currency (USD) melt-down - I was interested to see that Ritholtz blog weighed in on this very thing yesterday
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/is-the-diving-dollar-driving-equities/
It would be funny if I wasn't crying because it is all true.
FOLLOWING FUNDAMENTALS = TREASON
"Layoff announcements by major U.S. corporations rose by 31% in July to 97,373, the first increase since January, according to an unscientific tally compiled by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas."
An increase of 31% and the futures jump up on this news???
What is going on!!!!!
The powers that be in this 'free market' decided to bring up DOW to 14000 so that the plebes and peasants will just shut up and let them be free to swindle more.
I think I will have to stand on my head to trade, this is dotcom mania but worse!
Can't fight madness
And now the ADP report is worse than 'expected' but who cares... wait for the few silly shorters to see reality and then give them a big SQUEEZE
This market really has detached itself from all links to the real world now
Most people don't care where the market is day to day. Professional Investors do - and this miniscule minority of folks here - individual investors & day traders. My prediction is that as part of the Green Shoot Strategy this latter group will in effect be driven out of the game. Because the big guns are realizing the potential of this group to shine spot light on the atrocity that is going on. The rest of us may scan the 401k statement occasionally before throwing it in the trash and then great transfer of crap to the retirement portfolios can go on unabated ad infinitum.
Yes, agree with that.
If the market was going down then that would be a different story, but it isn't and as long as they keep the short squeeze going then no one will really say anything or do anything.
Keep the mushroom sheople thinking and believing in Hopium and Green Shewts so they can play for time.
Manipulate the crowd into thinking the fact they have no job or food or house is perfectly normal and the economy is in the process of a fantastic strong V recovery and you keep the potential rebellions under control.
That's what I was missing... the "manual" to deciphering the market... now I might be able to make some money.
Blood in Streets=FERTILIZE GREEN SHOOTS
While what you write is funny, it is also true. It will remain true so long as money is free, and money will be free so long as unemployment continues to rise.
There will be no dips, because the only fear anyone has is missing the rally, and there is almost universal willingness to both embrace and avail oneself of the Fed's cheap money policy. Other than the rational, nobody cares that what caused the problem is being hailed as the solution.
So laugh, but don't be short.
Someone nailed it. Here is what most people can't really grasp conceptually, because they work and invest their whole lives trying to obtain it, and think because of that it is a scarce commodity: our fiat currency is backed by nothing, and is being created at will by the Federal Reserve.
You work your whole life to earn, what, a few million over 40 years? BFD. The Fed is creating $1.25T out of thin air to buy every MBS created this year. Today alone they created $7.5B to buy government debt. This isn't money they "earned" or "borrowed", this is money that was created on the spot.
There is no limit to the amount of money they can create. And it is all washing through the system. And it will never be extracted, regardless of what Bernanke says.
US GOVERNMENT = WORLD'S BIGGEST CRIME SYNDICATE
BAC and JPM go vertical yet again, climbing upwards of 5% (BAC) in the first fifteen minutes of trade. C adds 3% and WFC just under. One cannot argue with the tape, though this truly is getting silly. Each of these stocks would need to tumble 30% just to get back where they were a week and a half ago.
Apparently things are 'that good'.
Seems that 'investors' are pricing them in as untouchables now; future beneficiaries of any and all Fed or Treasury actions.
And they weren't two weeks ago? I agree with the original poster, totally irrational. that's the nature of cheap money, it washes around the system like water in a bathtub.
My wife works at one of the bailout banks that has come up 500% off it's lows.
The fundamentals of the company clearly suggest that the low price WAS the correct price.
And unlike Goldman Sachs, we actual follow the laws of this shitty country and don't trade on what she knows.
+1
anon 25705,
i commend you and your wife for your integrity. it is becoming more rare these days. DON'T LOSE IT!
there is one caveat however. when most of the remaining players in the industry are corrupt (directly or by association) and one is out of work from that industry and possesses integrity, it is damn near impossible to reobtain employment in the industry.
signed,
my current autobiography
precisely why fundamentals are meaningless in the stock market fantasy land. does anyone know the true value of anything? of course not.