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The Next Leg Of Eurocrisis 2010? The Hungary Wolfpack Cometh As IMF, EU Cancel $25 Billion Rescue Loan Access

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the most surprising news of the weekend (so far), the IMF and the EU effectively suspended Hungary's access to the remaining funds in a $25 billion rescue loan package created in 2008 to prevent a financial meltdown of the country. The timing of this development is most extraordinary, as only a month ago Hungary served as ground zero for yet another scare that pushed European sovereign bond spreads to new records. The reason given for this dramatic, and very destabilizing action is that the nation must "take tough action to meet targets for cutting its budget deficit." Ostensibly  Greece continuing to lie about its own economic deterioration is a necessary and sufficient condition for escalating IMF lauding. Yet, with Europe set to announce results of its Stress Test kabuki next week, the last thing the continent needs is a real liquidity crisis (or the threat thereof) to counteract the smooth talking bureaucrats dead set into hypnotizing the union into "all is well" submission ("and when I snap my fingers, the debt-to-GDP ratio will be back to 10%"). To quote Portfolio.hu: "Brace yourself for Monday, folks!"

Reuters is on the case:

Negotiations with the lenders had been expected to finish early next week. Analysts said the forint currency could fall sharply when financial markets reopen Monday due to uncertainty over the international safety net for Hungary, which has financed itself from the markets since last year.

"In an environment of heightened market scrutiny of government deficits and debt levels, the fiscal deficit targets previously announced -- 3.8 percent of GDP in 2010 and below 3 percent of GDP in 2011 -- remain an appropriate anchor for the necessary consolidation process and debt sustainability, and should be adhered to, but additional measures will need to be taken to achieve these objectives," the IMF said.

Hungary's politicians proves once again they are complete dilletantes when it comes to dealing with entrenched status quoers as the IMF - instead of taking Greece's lead and promising they would not only cut pension to zero, but demand the citizens pay for the privilege for working for the government (a stance, which of course will be repealed in 364 days, but by then, the myth goes, the Keynesian ponzi will be back in full swing), Hungary's new political party apparently had the temerity of telling the IMF it can shove its demands.

Hungary's new center-right government, which swept to power in April elections, has said it wanted to extend its current financing deal with lenders until the end of 2010 and seek a precautionary deal for 2011 and 2012.

Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy made clear the government was keen to resume negotiations. "The government will of course continue talks with international organizations including the IMF and the EU," he said in a statement published by the national news agency MTI Saturday.

Christoph Rosenberg, who led the IMF delegation to Hungary, signaled that the Fund wanted more on next year's budget. "By definition when we come next time -- unless we come next week -- the government will have made more progress on the 2011 budget and that will be a very important budget," he told Reuters.

In an interview, he also said the IMF had not discussed the possibility of a new financing deal for 2011 and 2012.

"We are aware of what has been said in public but in our meetings we didn't really get to that point, because we obviously needed to first resolve the policy issues and those have not been resolved," he said.

One thing is certain: the next Hungarian bond auction will fail, as will the HUF on Monday. Look for a plunge in the currency (and a surge in Hungarian, and by implication Romanian and Bulgarian, CDS) when the market opens Monday.

"If we do not have the safety net of international lenders, that hits us where it hurts most," said MKB Bank analyst Zsolt Kondrat.

"One would definitely expect a weakening forint Monday. A 10-forint weakening (versus the euro) is quite plausible, and nobody knows how nervous the market's reaction might be."

And for the version straight from the horse's mouth, here is the non-hyperbolized perspective straight from portfolio.hu

Although Hungary, seeking to secure a precautionary loan deal with the International Monetary Fund, was to continue discussions with officials of the IMF and the European Union on Monday, the mission from the Washington-based lender decided to return home. The EU also postponed the conclusion of the review of the country’s EUR 20 billion credit facility granted in the autumn of 2008. The reason is that "a range of issues remain open" and the cabinet that will need to provide clarification for these. Brace yourself for Monday, folks!

That’s it, we’re leaving!

An IMF mission, led by Christoph Rosenberg, held discussions with the Hungarian authorities during July 6-17, as part of the sixth and seventh reviews of the country’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) approved on 6 November, 2008.

While there was "much common ground" between the negotiating parties, the IMF has announced that its mission decided to return to Washington D.C., as "a range of issues remain open". It said it would seek to bridge these differences.

European Commission officials, in close cooperation with IMF staff, conducted their fifth review mission under the EU balance of payments assistance to Hungary in the aforementioned period. They, however, said there were "a number of open questions on which the government would need more time to provide clarification." The EU executive decided to postpone the conclusion of the review and that "it would be appropriate to return for further discussions at a later stage."

The parties were to hold a joint press conference on Monday, provided they come to terms about a few issues. They have not, so the IMF stood up and left and the EU did not conclude its review.

Rate meeting ahead

The early departure of the missions mean Hungary cannot draw the next tranche of the credit facility, although the country had no intention to do so therefore it will have no impact on the budget. But the break in the talks is likely to lead to forint weakening and a rise in government securities yields on Monday, i.e. the financing of the state will become more expensive.

The morning market reactions will be especially crucial as the central bank’s (NBH) Monetary Council will hold a rate setting meeting that day. According to the consensus forecast of analysts in a Portfolio.hu poll, the MPC will keep the base rate on hold at 5.25%. But a sharp HUF depreciation and a rise in Hungarian CDS (Credit Default Swap) spreads might convince the MPC to hike rates. This, of course, will not help boost lending and economic growth.

Brace yourselves for Monday indeed.

 

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Sat, 07/17/2010 - 22:58 | 475719 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

To the big boys in the EU, Hungary isn't a "real" member, so tossing them overboard is easily justified...

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 14:16 | 476128 maddy10
maddy10's picture

Krugmanites used to say having your own currency is good

This goes to show how a small currency gets shredded by 'hungry' wolves

Too bad "Developed world" is going through the same torture IMF inflicted upon Latam and african countries during 80's-90's

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 22:24 | 476454 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

The problem is you can not dismiss Hungary like Greece. Their housing fiasco mirrors a lot of the stupidity we saw here, but of course not in the dollar volumes, but enough to trigger a default wave that will collapse the ECB. The issues start with Hungary but are extended to the Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. and are all intertwined with the search for yield sought by the "West" after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

This JP Morgan chart:

http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/06/hungaryexposurebig.jpg

and the various articles over the last 3 years outlining the marriage of Austria's largest banks to the Hungarian market alont with other nation's doing the same in Eastern Europe along with their own domestic markets should be the sign everyone is looking for. This would be akin to Arizona or Florida just defaulting on every real estate loan in the portfolios of the state for example and think about what that would mean here. Now take this little slice of heaven and multiply that across the various markets in Europe, the fear it would spread and immediate collapse in interbank cooperation and lending plus the calling of various loan portfolios not just from nations but from coroporations in other nations and that is what they are facing.

In the end, this is the test the ECB will not pass, not Greece. If Hungary gets a pass, the citizens of Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, France, etc. will all scream bloody murder at the idea of austerity and demand a return to their native currencies so they can follow the traditional route of inflating their way out of debt. This crisis has 48 hours to resolve itself or money markets will see a huge run much like 2008, this time in Europe and not just the U.S.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 06:56 | 476668 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Sizable chunk of hungarian mortgages denominated in CHF too, making the knife edge even keener as any loss in confidence is likely to drive the CHF back up vs the EUR, positive feedback loops ftw

Sat, 07/17/2010 - 22:58 | 475720 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

What shell is the pea under?

Or, is there no pea?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 05:53 | 475904 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

no pea.

Sat, 07/17/2010 - 23:05 | 475725 knukles
knukles's picture

Talk about a bad weekend in the Hamptons!

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 00:06 | 475780 cswjr
cswjr's picture

Lots of folks are short the forint in lieu of the Euro.  Maybe not that bad of a weekend in the Hamptons.  Too bad I'm not one of them (short HUF... or in the Hamptons).

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 09:51 | 475970 lettuce
lettuce's picture

nah, it's actually really nice out here this weekend. not too hot. monday is shaping up for some thunderstorms though ;)

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 09:14 | 475739 doublethink
doublethink's picture

 

Soros has been warning us about this for years.

 

http://www.1913intel.com/2009/03/24/is-hungary-the-financial-crisis-next...

 

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 11:36 | 476018 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Did he tell barry and Michelle as well? You would think the President of the United States would use information from his financial supporters to help spread hope and change.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 18:07 | 476271 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Surely you jest.....Once Soros and his ilk get what they want they don't answer their phone for anyone.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 18:47 | 476301 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Why would anyone tell Obama? He is not guy controlling the action. Obama is just another one of the many puppets, you need to look behind the curtain. You may want to see the movie "The Obama Deception" and "Confessions of an Economic Hitman".

Sat, 07/17/2010 - 23:29 | 475743 Timmay
Timmay's picture

I think we need detailed analysis on things that are still REAL in this world. It might be a short list but would make for an interested read....

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 00:54 | 475816 knukles
knukles's picture

Top O' the "It's Real, Ma!" List;
Stench emanating from DC and Wall Street.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 03:09 | 475857 bc0203
bc0203's picture

This is very real, and it involves lots of things which might be of interest (your tax dollars if you are a US citizen for one), so it is relevant, even if it doesn't look that way at first glance.

This is all about the IMF making an example of a government who doesn't toe the line.  Bond and currency holders are going to get crucified as a result of this action, which will put incredible pressure on the government in power to cave in to the IMF's demands.  Once they do cave in, it will be "do you want what happened to Hungary to happen to you?" time the next time someone else doesn't want to play ball.

Granted, Hungary is a relatively small fish in the global debt pond, but their visibilty to mainland Europe makes them extremely useful for this exercise, given the sorry fiscal state of many European governments currently.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 04:48 | 475880 Rick64
Rick64's picture

 Agree, recommend "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" to those interested in the IMF's real agenda. 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 07:57 | 475931 mikla
mikla's picture

+1

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:01 | 475974 knukles
knukles's picture

And the common man gets had once again in the resultant proscription of IMF related medicines whilst the pols and their financial enablers continue the rape and pillage of the system.  

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:10 | 475975 fuu
fuu's picture

Too bad the world has Iceland to show us see what happens when a nation says no. We can compare Iceland and Hungary in the future and see which was the wiser move.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 11:40 | 476019 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

The IMF using Chicago style politics is refreshing. Hope and Change baby hope and change. Did Barrack win the election through honesty or Soro's /IMF money? If the POTUS allows the IMF to bully Hungary does that mean he hates white people?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 15:29 | 476176 Kimo
Kimo's picture

Live by borrowing, die by borrowing.  If you choose to handle snakes, expect to be bitten.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 17:21 | 476232 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

I am hoping that Hungary can do something clever to get away from the IMF. We really need someone to stop the buck with the IMF and show that they don't need the IMF. I am tired of hearing about the IMF rolling other people around the world with my tax dollars combined with the false money that the IMF uses. I sometimes wish I could meet the people responsible for all of this at the IMF and slug them one. I also wish I could slug the dirty politicians that decide to do business with the IMF. Just one good haymaker to the kisser, thats all...I'm not that big so it won't hurt long--and that would be my contribution to the world!

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 04:02 | 476641 fajensen
fajensen's picture

What if strange and improbable accidental deaths begins to thin the IMF senior staff?

Will the IMF get that message: That while the IMF got paper and money, sovereign states have hard power, military and scary people to send round to sort someone out!

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 04:27 | 475876 Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

Yes, Real analysis , on real things ,would be real nice !!

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 06:25 | 475910 LeBalance
Sat, 07/17/2010 - 23:33 | 475747 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The roulette table is in it's final swing round and the ball has not settled yet. So, looks like the currency hot potato will be passed around for a bit longer.

I wonder when it will come asia-ward. Asia's fundamentals are as bad (in a capitalist sense) or actually worse then many EU countries, maybe even as bad as the US.

India? *shudder*

Like a roiling, rolling wave.

Anadianant

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 14:22 | 476130 maddy10
maddy10's picture

India???????

country grows 10% without any fiscal stimulus

low debt

reducing subsidies

3G lottery

where is your doomsday scenario?

India is enviably cool now

Stock markets are at fair value for first time in last 5 years IMHO and are at 100 week highs

Sat, 07/17/2010 - 23:35 | 475749 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

If rust won't sleep on Bank Of Russia "gold coins" neither will Zero Hedge.  I'm not the organized religious type but God Bless You.

Sat, 07/17/2010 - 23:41 | 475759 Muir
Muir's picture

This is strange.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 00:22 | 475769 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Agree........create doubt and follow with an uppercut........for what this is worth i read it as shift in thinking.......the timing is suspicious at least and suggestive of a planned frontal lobotomy for the rational market.........several light weeks ago Hungary was the lynchpin to bring down the EZ...........then there was the Yuan revelation followed by the Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon currency theatrics follwed by the next Hollywood release of Lets Fuch With Your Minds Some More And See How That Feels soap opera bullshit, ie., China dumping UST, buying Euro which is the current rewrite of Love The One You Are With (or closest too it as in geographic proxim) with our Queen (that includes the US) picking up the slack and having the BOE step up for the difference.

Seems there are more layers to the concept of fiat money than has the beauty of a delicious onion.

Btw Muir, can I see your lips too?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 01:03 | 475803 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

So everyone knows; when i was 5, i really was run over by a car.........i think it was a pickup truck, but.....lots of steel. You can't get much closer to MadHedgeFundTrader than that.

 

There is a larger point here and i think it is important no matter as simplistic as it sounds....... if you or someone had the simple choice between having money or being happy which would you choose?

The answer seems obvious.

CB thinking........keep it simple stupid; don't think, be happy.

 

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 08:11 | 475935 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Someone has been reading Fromm.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 00:28 | 475797 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The beginning of the massacre will come from unlikely quarters.

Archduke Ferdinand should be in hiding.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 00:40 | 475807 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

I don't want to come across as a bullshitter Rocky, but I know someone whose father was a resistance fighter during the war when Tito led the resistance in Yugoslavia, so maybe you can put Ferdinand into a context to elicit some thoughts round your thinking over unlikely quarters........I am interested so hope you put it out.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 01:08 | 475820 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I must be a bit paranoid!  I just watched the latest episode of MI-5 on BBC and it is so real as to be scary.  I hope you can catch it.  It's all about UK banking, espionage, a secret cabal that is about to take over.  MI-5's job was to scrounge up a couple of billion to keep the UK from being insolvent.  It could come from a dank and dark corner that nobody has been watching.  I feel that a government is going to make a really stupid mistake or keep a deep economic secret that brings down the banking system.  We almost had one -- remember those vanishing money market funds?

I hope that answers your question.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 01:53 | 475826 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

As James Bond put it so brilliantly, pussy is everything; so to your point Rocky, why is the BOE stepping up to fill the void and buying UST when China and Japan are selling?..........and more to the question, where is the BOE getting the wherewithall to step into the VOID and be the buyer given the recent public display of austerity measures?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 02:08 | 475840 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

If I were the Cmdr the order is a lockdown.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 02:39 | 475845 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

and if i were the surgeon under orders from the CBs then it is a sedative first.........lobotooooooooomyyyyyyy.

just thinking outloud..........while i still can.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 12:08 | 476053 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...why is the BOE stepping up to fill the void and buying UST when China and Japan are selling?..........and more to the question, where is the BOE getting the wherewithal to step into the VOID and be the buyer given the recent public display of austerity measures?

RRT, we'll have to get the answer to that question from folks smarter than I am.  It has weighed on my mind with every Tresury sale that occurs.  Without a Fed audit I think we'll be in the dark.  We might not want to know!

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 17:53 | 476261 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

The only commentary I can find on the BOE buying USTs comes from a ZH story which contains the following link regarding the USD GBP swaps:

 

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/FRBNY_BOE_Swap_Agreement.pdf

 

I would speculate that these guys could buy short term notes from each other (no more than 88 days maturity) with these swaps. It looks to me like the swaps also could be used to link the USD and GBP so that if the SHTF here, the SHTF there and vise versa.

 

Looks like a really f'ing big sham on all of us...If you could actually find out the desired end state to arrangements like this--it might make these guys at the FED and BOE a little nervous---so without further disclosure from the nice people who created all of this--I am just going to play it safe and posture as if they are going to screw us all.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 07:41 | 475922 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

RockyRacoon

Dude do you mean SPOOKS?

Kind of an old episode.

But hey new to you.

Have you seen the one where the secret cabal of world manipulators gets kidnapped?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:39 | 475985 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I do mean SPOOKS, but here in the U. S. that carries a connotation since it is a pejorative for afro-americans -- like from the 1950s or some such.  We are such wimps that we let that sort of thing get in the way.  Watch the Anthony Hopkins film: The Human Stain

It was a 2009 episode, but it can't be older than the GFM (Global Financial Meltdown).

The manipulators were named Nightingale.

It was specifically this episode:

70 6 "Episode 6" 4 December 2009 (2009-12-04)     A team of assassins from a corrupt bank targets an employee who has access to several accounts the British Government needs to make interest payments, otherwise the UK economy will collapse. While Ros finds him, her mental state is in question after the loss of Jo. She eventually finds the elusive man, who reluctantly gives them the accounts. Meanwhile, Lucas confronts Sarah about her involvement in Basel. She escapes before explaining anything. After the payments are made, Blake is forced to resign after forged evidence places him in a scandal. Tariq discovers that the money involved in Basel has disappeared to Pakistan. 
Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:14 | 475976 knukles
knukles's picture

There was real "intrigue" with the demise of one of the money market funds.... the Reserve Fund.  Shortly before it broke the buck, there was an exceedingly large withdrawal.  Which it turned out later happened to have been the Chinese government.  Fortuitous timing, eh?  Sorta coincided with all the pablum about Chinese influence in DC politics, that fellow in LA bundling contributions....

T'was all in the public domain at the time.  How easily we forget.  And the Power Elite do not take care of themselves...

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 00:34 | 475804 Me XMan
Me XMan's picture

Shit gonna hit fan Monday?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 03:38 | 475866 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

lets Hope so...

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 03:44 | 475868 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

im fucked.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 06:40 | 475914 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

and why would that be

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 07:46 | 475927 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

I added to a few positons before the weekend, EUR/USD CAD CHF AUD. It shouldnt be too bad, but there could be a silly reaction, and if there is, the euro is a big fat succulent turkey. Infact, the euro looks like a fat christmas turkey doing the macarena, using tins of gravy granules as rumba shakers.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 09:30 | 475963 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

Infact, the euro looks like a fat christmas turkey doing the macarena, using tins of gravy granules as rumba shakers.

As Larry the Cable Guy would say "that's funny right there, I don't care who you are!"

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:42 | 475987 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Watch the media for tell-tale signs.  Bloomberg would be a good choice.

Shit gonna hit fan Monday?

Not if they can throw enough money at folks who don't deserve it.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 00:34 | 475805 Overleveraged_a...
Overleveraged_and_Impatient's picture

Well they still do have more negotiations on monday. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 01:48 | 475834 hambone
hambone's picture

So, if they are cut off...how long til they "need" the money?  Are they reliant on the money for rolling over debt or running the gov or what?  Curious what the trigger for real trouble woud be and when?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 02:04 | 475842 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

There were no British austerity measures.  There was a press release or two.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 14:32 | 476133 maddy10
maddy10's picture

HAHAHA

Austerity?????

Instead of growing deficits they are slightly reducing it from -163 billion to -149 billion this year

when will they pay back 2.5 trillion deficit they have accumulated already

Maybe in 2200 AD they can expect to be debt free with this rate of austerity

what the heck, Krugmanites would say, 'everything is fine if everybody has same percentage in debt and let's ignore real numbers'

Look japan is ok with so much debt we have more room to borrow

I think US UK debt will be in quadrillions at this rate and everything will still be fine

Nobody is interested in paying back the principal anyway

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 03:07 | 475850 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/Data-wise-The-d...

Perhaps Hungary won't get a snazzy new currency symbol with an 11 through it like India just did if they don’t give the IMF private central bankers what they want...

http://www.eworldpost.com/indian-rupees-new-symbol-adopted-4782.html

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_flaws-in-selection-of-rupee-symbol_...

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 03:20 | 475860 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

oh.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 06:35 | 475913 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

AD WITH NO CONTENT AS USUAL.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:35 | 475982 butchee
butchee's picture

Exactly!  Tyler, can't you revoke spammers' posting privileges?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 04:55 | 475881 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

i think the next leg down is starting Monday........this writer has predicted the NDX that is now at 1803 to come down to 1395 i the next 6-7 trading days.......

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21188.html

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 06:27 | 475911 VA Voter
VA Voter's picture

This article is not on the Market Oracle Home Page.  What gives?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 05:30 | 475902 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Ah well Hungary is not being good,.....if you got no cash you gotta dash,....if you got no loot you just can,t shoot,.......if you got no bread your as good as dead,followed by ............. I don,t like Mondays,.......... another Country bites the dust and more consumers can,t consume,more producers can,t sell,........more banks go bust,.........more loans turn bad.Now Europe has PIGSH (wonder where the IT will come from to make Pigshit).Maybe Italy and Turkey. 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 16:27 | 476201 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I can give you a little. - Ned

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:44 | 475905 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

If we do not have the safety net of international lenders...

I know that I sleep better knowing the "safety net" of international lenders is there to protect me. It's like a nice soft security blanket. It gives me a warm fuzzy. [/sarcasm]

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 06:16 | 475906 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Who,s next on to the wall of death,Hungary is off,nice bike,achieving a good speed,plenty of support on those corners,oh no its a wobble ..........  oh she,s gone .....and a crowd of international bankers rush to support the patient ......... wait a minute .....they are only interested in the bike ............ and its off to the scrap yard to try and recover something from this mess.Next up its ......... ?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 06:34 | 475912 VA Voter
VA Voter's picture

I will definitely be watching the 6pm futures open.  Thanks ZH for the heads up.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 07:44 | 475925 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

Actually, that´s excellent news for bond markets. There is no fu..ing around anymore with IMF and European Commission ! Hungary does not want to learn and to adjust its policy ? Well, then they should bare the consequences of unresponsible behavior themselves ! Punishment will follow on Monday Forint opening with a large gap. Maybe the stupid Hungarian government will learn a lesson or two ?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:47 | 475991 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Well, then they should bare the consequences of unresponsible behavior themselves !

Will you be as firm when it is the turn of the U. S. to bear those irresponsible consequences?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 20:37 | 476362 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Without being TOO prickish, what do "bare consequences" look like?  Is it a Full Monty type of thing?  Or perhaps more like Pladizow's avatar?  Just wonderin'...  Junk me if you want, I can bear it.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 07:10 | 476674 anony
anony's picture

On a nude beach south of Santa Cruz, not much.

In Manhattan at lunch time very agreeable.

If it's Betty White could be her swan song.

If it's Barney Frank, pass the barf bag.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 08:16 | 475936 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

Hungary seems to have figured out what should have been obvious to everyone and certainly was to Greece.

The big European countries need the bailout of the small countries just as much as the msall countries do.  So the small countries are perfectly able to tell them to shove their austerity packages and still get the loans as it'll be the French and German banking systems that collapse along with the small country economy.

There is no power to enforce austerity.  The IMF will release a cloud of self-congratulatory squids ink next week as it announces that it has agreed cuts with Hungary, but in reality there'll be nothing done by Hungary and both sides know it and they'll still get the money.  Germany and France NEED Hungary to get the loans or they collapse

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 09:11 | 475949 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Take your pension/paycut for the good of the cartel! or or.. we'll do something..not sure what but we will.    IMF . 

Lets see if IMF light that fuse ? (withhold 25 Bil)  do they have the ballz to do it   .lo

 

  have entered phase 2 of crisis if they do.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:00 | 475973 mikla
mikla's picture

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 09:42 | 475968 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

This could go as well as the NYFRB's handling of Leh. by  Timmy (beavis).. this is going to be good.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 09:54 | 475971 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

This has the potential to cause some serious pain for the Austrian and Swiss banks.

I have become so cynical that I think most events are planned - we have the realization of the worsening of the US economy, plus what is likely to be terrible housing data next week, the Dollar weakening and foreign investors (excluding the mysterious UK entities) ditching Treasuries, so now is the time to pull another rabbit out of the hat to divert attention.

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 13:13 | 476101 Orly
Orly's picture

Exactly what I was thinking.  It seems that many Hungarians went balls-to-the-wall and even bought their sub-prime mortgages in Swiss Francs!  How's that for insane, predatory lending practices?

The "speculation" in the Swiss Franc that has had the currency ramping in all quarters was perhaps not at all so accidental.  Maybe they were getting ready for this?

If Hungary is having a hard time, all those Austrian banks that loaned money to Eastern Europeans in CHF are going to feel quite a pinch.  Ironically, all those banks have been basically nationalised, so the kicker is going to come in when the Swissie reacts at the London open on Monday.

My bet is that the EUR is going to go on a tear against the GBP and the CHF, while staying relatively flat against the USD.  As for the EURJPY, we'll have to wait and see what equities do as they take the lead in this new risk-aversion episode.

It is going to be an interesting week!  I say short the hell out of the franc!

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 17:10 | 476220 mephisto
mephisto's picture

It would be ironic if you were right. After the SNB blew billions trying to get the CHF lower, Hungary goes and does it for them.

Actually I see things the other way round. I think CHF rallies versus EUR, as increasing losses on the CHF mortgage book means the banks have to buy CHF to cover the FX risk on the loss. And as yet more pressure arrives on the major German banks to fund another crisis in another neighbour - this time Austria. O well, lets see. As you say it will be interesting.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 22:26 | 476458 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I'll get the charts up for the big Austrian banks on my blog by morning. They are as ugly as Citi.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 10:32 | 475981 Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

Congratulations to Zero Hedge, Tyler, Marla, Cornelius, Sacrilege, and others!

 

A mention in both Barron's and John Mauldin's latest newsletter!  Awesome work!  Thank you for exposing the rigged illegal gambling operation known as the U.S. stock market!  Your hard work is appreciated.

Biff Malibu

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 11:26 | 476008 Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

hmm..someone junked this???

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 11:54 | 476039 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

Must be an out of work producer from one of those business channels or a blogger who is losing readers to ZH.

Now, how long before I get junked?

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 20:41 | 476369 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

I'm starting to think we need a "captcha" on the junk button.  Some of these junks are too stupid to be human.

+1 to your post, Biff.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 11:33 | 476015 billhilly
billhilly's picture

DITTO!

 

Why the flag?

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 11:51 | 476034 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

When the student is ready, the teacher will appear.

Gautama Buddha

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 11:31 | 476013 Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

hey how are those chinese solars doing anyway???

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 11:41 | 476022 billhilly
billhilly's picture

Now I'm not nearly as smart as most of you all here but it sure seems that every one of these "crisis events" ends with another "deal/rescue' and the world is once again all-ok.  I get tired of the wash-rinse-repeat cycle-ness occuring here and this seems likely to find another cure and the status-quo will be preserved.  Hope (I am WAY short, although NO margin) will once again be dashed.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 11:57 | 476044 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

I can't help but to think of the IMF as a Foie Gras farmer who not only force feeds, but then threatens the withdrawal of food althogether. Wouldn't the Hungary goose be better off with austerity only?

In modern foie gras factory farms, geese and ducks are confined, usually in either small pens or in tiny cages that virtually lock the birds in place. Thus restrained, the birds cannot escape the "feeder" and the mechanized feeding machine. One by one, the feeder grabs each bird and plunges the metal pipe of the feeding machine down their throats. The machine pumps a huge amount of a corn-and-oil mixture directly into their gullets in just a few seconds, equivalent to one-third to one-fourth of the birds' own body weight each day.

This brutal treatment is devastating to the health of the birds. In a matter of weeks, their livers have swollen up to ten times their normal size. Breathing and walking become difficult as the liver pushes against other organs, causing respiratory stress due to decreased air sac space in their lungs, and forcing the legs to move outward at an unnatural angle. Ducks at foie gras farms have been observed panting and struggling to stand, using their wings to push themselves forward when their crippled legs can no longer support them. Struggling to move causes infection-prone open pressure sores to develop and fester on their hocks (legs) and keels (chest area).

In this compromised state, depressed birds can no longer engage in normal preening behaviors, and this is compounded by the fact that they are denied access to water sufficient for them to engage in normal, instinctual behaviors. Their plumage becomes encrusted with filth, and most of them develop what foie gras farmers call "wet neck"-when their unpreened feathers curl up and become coated with dirt and oil.

http://www.nofoiegras.org/FGabout.htm

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 04:17 | 476645 fajensen
fajensen's picture

To top it off, the end product, the Foie Gras, taste about the same as that fine-ground (to hide the nature of the ingredients) greasy canned liver pate they have at the supermarket ... it's IMO not a gourmet dish at all!!

I can easily whip up a chicken-liver pate that out-taste that overpriced swill, takes about 20 minutes of work!

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 15:16 | 476170 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

HUJ OFF TO THE RACES ALLREADDY, MARKT MAKERS HAVE JUST PUT 300 PIPS ON EURHUF IN 2 MINUTES...STILL CLIMBING, USDHUF IS ALSO WELL BID.

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 17:57 | 476265 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Check.....No pea....just a nice little rat turd.....

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 19:17 | 476318 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Give them some ancient weapons and fight it out like their ancestors did. ha  These are all the same feuds,

and the feudal system is still at work among peasents, serfs and lords.  Its their history.

Peasents Prepare to pay your peon to the overlord.

 

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 21:14 | 476370 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Sun eve.. time to fire up the Charts.. Turbo on.. Power on.  A glorious new trading week.

Looking at the Euro selloff it looks like 130 was the counter trend high, nice call Bruce Krasting.

 

may I  be so bold to add... the Euro will never see 130 again ever. ;)

 

 

Sun, 07/18/2010 - 22:25 | 476456 Orly
Orly's picture

:?

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 01:18 | 476583 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

On CNBC Squawk Box Europe now they are reporting IMF/EU rift over Hungarian deficit.

The Forint should drop today.

"Hungary's IMF/EU loan talks break down" was the running description.

Mon, 07/19/2010 - 04:48 | 476648 obelisks
obelisks's picture

nothing...........like it never happened ?

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