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Next SPX Stops: 1,013 And 951
The 80 DMA was broken today and the temporary base at 1,080 was penetrated without much foreplay. Next up: 1,072 support at the 200 DMA and 951 and the 300 DMA. For purists, 950 is also the VWAP since the market lows. Consider it payback for the low-volume ramp higher. Lastly, the 23.6 Fib retracement is at 1036 while the 38.2 is at 986, which is also close to the first half peak, after which the market just went bananas.
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It's actual worth is 886. I wouldn't put money into this shithole until those valuations....well, that is except for the fact that BS Bernanke has done nothing but shred the doelarr so I guess equities are going to go up eventually (hyper inflation). Commodities are the safer bet for sure. This is why gold has maintained its support level of $1080 through this recent stock market shit storm.
The economy is getting really bad.
It's so bad that when I was in McDonalds the other day they were serving quarter ouncers. I ordered a Big Mack and the kid asked me if I could afford to have fries with that.
I got a pre-declined credit card application in the mail. The bank returned my check "insufficient funds" so I called them to ask if they meant me or them.
I mean, seriously, when Hot Wheels and Matchbook stocks are trading higher than GM, you know things are really bad.
Dick Cheney took his stockbroker hunting, Exxon Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen, and the mafia is laying off judges. Motel Six won't leave the light on anymore, CEOs are now playing miniature golf. I was so depressed last night thinking about the economy, wars, John Edwards, etc. that I called the suicide hotline. I got a call center in Pakistan. When I told them I was suicidal they got all excited and asked me if I knew how to drive a truck.mmmm.... Gap close with a full moon this weekend (check synodic cycles) along with a major astroevent with short term oversold, I'm going long on the open Monday for a 4 to 5 day bounce at the least. *shrug*
Also we got bullish butterflies all over the place. (look for tips on harmonic trading).
+144
Sounds like parts of a new Lady Gaga song.
-10,000
for gappers, we got em at 1070 range (hit the top today, but no fill), 1018, and a monster at 901.
exactly how 1080 should have been violated.
At the end I thought the Hammer might have a Takeout of 10,000 with the Broomers Sweeping mighty hard.
Next game...
Pete
Check out the shooting star on wfc daily. Good night Irene.
weird action on this issue of late, certainly today. i'm sure the answer will be forthcoming soon......
some people need to own financials. maybe money coming out of JPM, GS, MS and going in to WFC ?
WFC will get crushed. They have played the "extend and pretend game" to the fullest extent, and they are one of the top holders of rotting CRE, 2nd mortgages, and helocs. The stock has been trading to the beat of its own drum, probably being gamed by the usual suspects. To me, this is simply the calm before storm and they want to deter as many people from shorting because they know the reward will be large on the downside.
Disclosure: I loaded up on some OTM March puts today when the stock hit about $29. Phuck 'em.
a
Come on folks. All this technical analysis is no more than reading goat entrails or coffee grinds. Why should the future be like the past? And which past? Even the past is reevaluated in light of new data and is dependent on what data and period you consider. There is no causation because you are dealing with psychology and the mind is capable of all sorts of unpredictable stupidity just like evolution. Whoa, sorry, evolution doesn't claim insight, it's just process. Only mind claims insight and "intelligence". 80 DMA, 200 DMA, whatever! This kind of stuff only works if lots of fools believe it and act in a predictable way - like "housing prices will only go up". Shake that belief and all hell breaks lose. Time to get a real job and stop yearning for that lottery free lunch.
A lot of fools do believe it, and some have computers that trade accordingly. Big fast powerful computers, filled with lots and lots of money too. I understand your skepticism. I used to think the same way. Not any more.
Neither of you have obviously ever studied behavioral psych. First of all, human behavior is hardly random. If it was, we would not have repeatable patterns from addictions, obsessive-compulsive disorders, and macro-cyclical events throughout history. It is not rocket science when an investor makes a bad bet at a given market price, endures being upside down for an extended period (while often paying margin interest), and then dumps the position the first chance he gets at the same price he originally bought it.
Yet that forms the very basis for basic support & resistance levels - the underpinnings to all technical analysis!
Technical analysis is not about meaningless numbers derived by arcane mathematical functions far removed from reality! It is about how human behavior patterns have been proven to follow certain mathematical relationships. It is by use of these relationships one can try to predict human behavior, such as in the market.
Believe me, you are welcome to throw darts to pick your investments but I will stick to my TA. It's worked quite well for me so far - in both market directions. However, I can always use more contributors!
lol
I agree with you. I guess my prior post wasn't written very well. I was arguing for TA, not against. Without TA, I feel like I'm flying with a blindfold on. But I do understand some people don't believe in it. I respect that.
@ OBRon - excellent comment - have never heard such a simple reasoning of support resistance before - thanks.
If you believe that TA does not work, just buy the next high volume breakdown in XYZ.
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves." -- Will Rogers
The people who use TA successfully probably spend as much time going over charts and optimizing strategies as the people who use fundamentals successfully spend researching the company's financials and strategies. How is that "yearning for a free lunch"? Work is work, after all. Some work one way to trade well and others work other ways. Yeah, there are people who think, "I'll just check out a couple of charts for a few minutes and then I'll be rich", but those people clearly wash out right away and either come back with a better work ethic or move on to other things.
ANd then there's people like Abekmo who pixelshit all over the page while waiting for CNBS to come back from commercial break.
Takes a lot of courage and intelligence to provide such a pithy response, But, if you're a prime example of a TA believer I'm glad to be a sceptic. But just in case you're just having a bad day, read "Fooled by Randomness" and you may also become more of a skeptic. In any case, best of luck trading.
The funny thing is that no one who bases their stock-picking off of something they read in Barron's gets ripped on for seeking a "free lunch", yet that way of trying to get rich is at least as "lazy" as the guy who thinks that looking at a couple of charts will get him rich.
Like most things, you'll get out of the market what you put into it.
My "free lunch" point is that most retail investors get crushed as soon as a bull market ends because much of the rise is engineered and manipulated with GS traders skimming the profits. Most retail investors I've met are like me, looking to make a big return and easily swayed by the promise of riches. I and many of my friends have learned through painful experience and a lot of subsequent research that, surprise, the best models and plans are really of limited usefulness especially as soon as fundamental conditions change. Sure, go ahead and bet if you really believe you understand the risks and uncertainties, but make sure you can afford the loss and keep a day job that's satisfying; as loosing traders don't write autobiographies and substantial winners are a very small percentage of the investing population.
Abemko: You're right. You'll never understand TA. What's your real name? Steve Liesman?
I hear what you are saying about some of the more abstract things...but past support and resistance levels work, because those levels actually MEAN something to people. For example, if I bought in at 1050, rode the rally up and am trying to figure out what to do on the way down, 1050 is an obvious decision point for me as it means getting out with zero loss. The more people who got in and out at similar levels, the more they "work".
Hmmm....death cross approaching on the VIX (daily chart)?
Im loving it. Bull traps everywhere. Remember the Alamo, remember "Bear market Rally" and Its coming home to roost baby!
Heres a friendly tip, if you dont know how to short:
You Go long on these to short. Inverse ETF's
http://www.proshares.com/funds/#sort=Name&direction=asc&tab=overview&fun...
Better yet, options on 2x/3x inverse ETFs. Substantial volatility with greater leverage without worrying about those pesky margin calls due to excessively high equity requirements.
;-)
The spreads on those options were pretty bad in the past. I did read that they're improving because of the increased equity requirements to hold the levered ETFs causing more people to use the options. Still, QQQQ options have tight spreads and can provide a ton of leverage.
Saved me buku margin interest on the same (or more) positions using 6mo options. Spreads are better now!
The only issue is trying to account for fed future buys - skews the wave pattern beyond normal Fibs. However, there are several hi-beta stocks that are less affected by fed intervention and adhere much more closely to classic elliott wave patterns. The tradeoff is in spreads/liquidity for volume trades (>100 contracts).
Ahhh... decisions, decisions!
lol
Penetration without much foreplay sucks.
That's all I can conceptualize about all this at this time.
-MobBarley
Hey Mob Barley, what are you doing here? There are other web sites for those self indulgent depraved fantasies.
strange move by gold today, just when everyone was waiting for the fall below 1075 with stock markets falling, it jumped to 1082 as the stocks got hammered? Reminding you as well of last January? Has the bond bubbl burst with the ultimate recognition that only metals are safe?? would welcome any eloborations on this..
go to http://jsmineset.com/ and scroll to Todays Hourly Action in Gold by Trader Dan Norcini. He'll give you a lot of food for thought.
Check out Apple's (AAPL) day http://20smoney.com/2010/01/29/telling-day-in-the-market/
fat lady is warming up
Me thinkst the 905ish gap from July 2009 gets filled....with violence.
buy the dip
be a retard
please
come on..buy the dip
the silence....is deafening.....
That reminds me. Cramer is on in 45 minutes....
If this downward move continues, that channel will turn into the TV version of Baghdad Bob. Worth turning back on for the entertainment.
It is sort of fun. With the sound down and Rush cranked up. The idiot is pimping, hold it, feel it, inhale, sigh, inhale again, can you feel it? Don't laugh, don't have liquids in your mouth:
Banks and Health care stocks.
Cramer is the best. He gives whores a good name.
All we need is for Cramer to go premium and publish his membership activity as a new financial index: STPD.
;-)
OH God, the "Fast We'll Lose your Money" show which touted the "January Effect" when the market was going up earlier this month is now pooh-poohing it.
TardTV is in full "please buy this crap" mode now....
What about the 390 day johnson rod reversal heading into the seasonally weak Febrewary effect? Nothing but asses and elbows on all my charts.
Buy hi, sell drunk.
mid-november to early-january resembles the typical hockey stick, doesn't it?
just FYI, HFT doesn't give a rip about technical analysis. All these fancy squiggly charts with lines and fibs are utterly useless.
Equity indexes downtrend continues.
UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
http://www.rotarycatonsvillesunrise.org/Event_Docs/images/bull-roast-ico...
While I consider myself to be sceptic of TA, I find myself increasingly drawn to Bob Prechter analysis. Many folks makes fun of him calling tops and all,but a glance the SPY today,confirmed to me that actually his 95 call for a top is realy not far from reality. How do we know that?twice in the last 11 years(granted I am looking at the 97 level) we go back to that level,and in real dollar term,the lows of Mar were realy about 96-97 level. Now of course if every time the market drops,somebody pumps trillions,it is gonna go back up. But then again,once those trillions vanishes into the pockets of Wall St. we go back down again. And frankly that means one thing in my opinion;and that is the fair price of the market is around the level of 96-97 in real dollar terms(DXI and not the nominal number we see). And if an economist to write a PHD thesis,may be he can prove from that observation,that in fact real GDP didn't grow since the 96-97 years. Which will prove in return that growth in the service sector(since that date probably most of the new jobs created were in the service sector and not manufacturin)doesn't realy grow the GDP