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Next Stop For The Dollar?
71: here we come.
And, in response to Chairman Ben's earlier statement that the recession is "very likely over" (which he is absolutely right if he is only talking about those Wall Street CEO's who not only have jobs thanks to Ben, but are actively eyeing private island purchases), Senator Charles Schumer had this to say:
“It’s good that some indicators are going up, but until people see that their neighbor down the street who lost his job has found new work, it’s not going to feel like a recovery to the average person.”
Wait until the average person gets to travel abroad and tries to buy something not dollar denominated.
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The average person doesn't travel abroad...and nor do I anymore.
Doesn't matter unless you buy imports, right? Like....oil, maybe?
I believe that they have contained oil. It seems odd that its only in the low 70's given the dollar's decline and the fact that the so called recession is over.
Maybe they can keep it low with all the supply from the full tankers that are off shore. Did they ever exist?
Bernanke said yesterday that “the recession is very likely over,” while Buffett said the economy is responding to government stimulus measures. The Group of 20 nations has committed about $12 trillion to reviving growth. Figures today are likely to show U.S. inflation remains subdued and that the housing market is improving.
How come after so much money shoved down the throat unemployment is reaching record numbers everywhere? Equity markets are at record high everywhere.The economies must be doing well,I am sure.
Changing the castors on my roller to accomodate weight of gold coins.
be careful , the gold/silver COTs look terrible
Soon to turn into rocket fuel powering the rise into the stratosphere. Take a look at the COT chart circa 2005-06. Shorties had to cover on exploding prices.
even though turk is in the nervous nellie camp
on this one and actually thinks gold could go
down as a result of this, i am cautiously
optimistic that 2005-6 is the correct reference
point as you state....
the theory is that we have a lot of mad chicoms
who do not appreciate the tenor of usa monetary
policy and all of the market manipulations
and thus are quite happy to play hardball this
time....
it would take only a small fraction of their
dollars reserves to implement the beijing put
when options/futures expirations roll around.
i would love to see comex gold taken down.
December is the next contract with large OI. December deliveries should be fun.
http://www.nymex.com/gol_fut_csf.aspx
They don't have the Gold, and even if they do, they'll rather cover their shorts and pay out soon-to-be-worthless fiat monies rather than soon-to-be-almost-invaluable Gold. The key for Gold bulls is to not just sit on their paper money gains, but to keep converting a chunk of their winnings into Gold on a regular basis. The endgame in Gold this time WILL NOT be to cash out in fiat paper.
How should I read the table, I see the figures and the volume for december looks like crap but how do I conclude its the shorters?
Sentiment on Gold is so bearish right now, it might as well be plunging to the depths of $800-700. Frankly, I did not think it was possible to have bearish sentiment EVER in the Gold market around the $1000 mark and used to worry how it would ever scale that peak with everybody so bullish. Boy! Was I wrong. As you point out, even some of the usually bullish commentators are really skeptical of this rally right now alongwith some of those who I respect. Which makes me even more confident that this is the big one - we absolutely need bearishness and skepticism for the rally to power on higher - ESPECIALLY among some of the usually astute commentators/players which will be our proof that the Bull has fooled and shaken off the maximum number of riders.
Banks shorting, evidenced by COT reports. Chinese buying...publicly stating this fact and that their buying moves the needle so they are doing it methodically. Also, Chinese telling their people to buy gold and silver and the Chinese government wouldn't say that unless they knew the price was going to go up. With the Chinese holding $1 trillion USD to buy metals, I think they trump the US Banks' ability to continue to short PMs. When the banks step aside and are forced to cover, TO THE MOON!
on what planet is gold sentiment bearish here? I'm seeing daily sentiment data in the mid 90s.
do you have any evidence whatsoever to support your claim?
Price shall be my evidence.
It ain't that easy - you just can't come out one fine day and look at some kind of nonsense "sentiment indicator", place your trades and expect to win. It takes hard work, time and patience (and lots of mistakes) to get a feel for any market. It's more of an art than an exact science is all I can say.
I think this might be the time for gold. I am trading in some of my Oil positions for gold positions, the Oil trade has run its course to a large degree, it is soon time for a pure play in wealth preservation by putting it in a real currency.
Interesting timing. Gold just spiked $4 in one minute, literally. Hope you frontran your post!
Seeing a lot of offers @ 1015 so far. Still a very early test, though.
Gold and silver both on the rampage just this second. Is there, is there a Santa after all?
HALLE-F**KIN-LUJAH!!!
the chinese got a case of the ass and they
ain't taking it no mo.....
and yet the fed's black knights will be out
sometime soon to sell naked gold shorts....
it's hard to know if this spike will hold but
it was done with gusto...
well now the dollar is going into the crapper...
we may see 75.xx much sooner than i thought...
however, the markets are very choppy and we
could see a sharp course reversal by morning
or within a few days....
nonetheless, the dollar is value challenged...
I've been pretty much ALL IN since $950.
i have been pretty much all in since 2004.....:)
What's a COT??? It's bad enough that grandpa has to look up the abreviations for internet speak, now I have to search for the economics abreviations too. Please define your terms. An old engineer will be quite pleased.
And after reading this site and the many posts, all I can say is that I'm glad I don't have to fly in a plane designed by y'all!
COT = Commitments of Traders
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm
COT = Commitments of Traders
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm
Here you go Grandpa... this link should help...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commitments_of_Traders
tick tock tick tock.....
Oh Ben, you are so wise- I'm glad you are able to make up for your diminutive stature with your money-printing prowess.
He makes up for his stature with the beard. So what could he be compensating for with the printing prowess?
...Aw, no, that's dirty.
Dude that beard is pretty regal. No matter what kind of $hit is coming out his mouth, a bald head and well groomed beard makes you think the fucker know's what he's talking about.
Indeed.
He could accessorize with a bow-tie for that professorial look.
In all seriousness, it's the rally/playoff beard a la NHL.
What ever happened to the NHL? Is it true that it goes into Chapter 11 every offseason; only to restructure for every year anew?
The only place we'll be able to vacation is Zimbabwe... where our dollar will be worth something... "would you like a little Cholera with that glass of filthy water".
lol
What's with you and Africa... a glass of filthy water for a buck sounds about right. The cholera however will cost you more...
How about the hut... know anything about their housing market?
Yes actually... and they are soon going to start exporting mud hut technology to the US I'm told... care to place your order now Minnesorta?
I'm holding out for the imported mud pies from Haiti.
Who else has $5 on taking up a collection to import Haitian mud pie vendors to sell their goods outside 85 Broad? Nevermind, they have no concious or empathy for fellow homo sapiens. Probably consider the Hatians to be a different species.
India and Bangladesh will outsource call centers to America, hiring Hispanics to speak Chinese with an Indian accent.
Brilliant.... just brilliant.
Brilliant
¡Ni hao vato!
have you ever seen a Korean speak Bengali, now that's freakin weird!
I saw it several times....it's weird indeed.
roflmao
ROFL - that has SNL skit written all over it
don't remind me, I just returned from Italy and was scortched by 3 euro sodas
Fabian principle, the devaluation of our economy in favor of social democracy. Course, that could be all speculation and in reality the uppity-ups have no friggen clue other than to feed a fever instead of starve a cold.
Ah, yes, the concepts of Fabian Socialism in full flower. Industry is only worthwhile in as much as it fulfills the interests of the State. The State, in turn, fulfills the perceived needs of the sheeple.
Devalued currency is part of the plan.
But that assumes there is a plan.
Ram Meenakshisundaram
i take it you mean 1971...
as in support at 71.
Both work. But you know this.
Ahhh...I missed the "..."
their neighbor down the street?? another out of touch politician
Sort of like burning your own house down in order to be poor enough to qualify for food stamps and rental assistance.
I can do that?! Get out the briquets, Marge.
Can we get Bernanke a Star Trek uniform while he's taking the dollar where no dollar has gone before.?
i'd rather see him in a waffle house
uniform with his two front teeth missing...
How about get him a red science officer suit and beam him down to the planet on security detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3cL1Aofy90
please, please, please....
Somebody's gotta photoshop that!!
Yah, who cares about the dollar? The Chinese will do whatever we say. The market will trade to 1200 before the end of October, bounce around for several months until everyone is complacent. Bernanke will announce the addition of dollar dispensers in every public toilet, you can either wipe your ass with it or trade them for Obama shots at the bar. This blog will slow to a crawl, Dennis "Kneel down I'll blow you" will declare victory, and then the market will trade down to 400 faster than Paul Newman can eat a dozen eggs. CNBC will go away, we will dance in the streets yet still have to kill our neighbors for bread and dodge russian and chinese paratroopers. I see this all playing out like Red Dawn.
Fallout 3 is the future. Just took a sweet ass sword off a chinese paratrooper officer. His assult rifle is good too.
Silver @ $17.00
Gold brushes the face of $1010 and falls to $1007.
Knuckles white.
Body pinned to my Relax the Back (tm) chair.
Face flattened, mouth pressed into a grimace as jowls flap at the sides of the head. Not good to be wearing lipstick just now, the joker effect is over the top.
Pulling Gs.
If you are grinning with a clown-wide rictus, I'd think your jowls would tighten, not flap.
Hey Sweetie Coolaide,
Maybe after a point you are correct. They usually flap for a while, and then are pinned. I shall consult you for FX continuity in the future. The blast is still under way...
If the dollar goes lower from here, trade starts to break down and everything gets out of balance. More and more countries will start manipulating their own currencies to weaken against the dollar.
bring it
Yeah, LOL, can't wait for it.
I'm so there.
Why can't the dollar do OK for a "while"?
- Fallen around 40% since 2000 v 40% fall in the 1930's.
- Most countries depend on keeping their currency cheap to fund exports to the US.
- US economy is more more attractive than Europe due to its socialism, language barriers, and labor immobility, costs, and rigidity.
- US economy for a while has stregnths over China, e.g., middle class of only 110 million for now.
- Canada, Mexico, Australia, and New zealand face difficulties in a deflationary world of excess capacity.
- Long term currency is correllated with productivity growth and the US has strengths in new tech.
For example, China and Japan have tons of businesses that lose money if their currency rises below a certain level.
We all, around the world, will achieve prosperity through competitive poverty.
Capitalism, i wonder sometimes, can it really survive indefinitely? For all it's positive aspects, I think it's rise and the greed which follows it also will lead to its demise (in it's current form atleast).
the present form of "capitalism" is nothing like capitalism
This is very true. People are running around screaming, trying to save something that is not what it claims to be and is trying to ruin them.
Let it burn! It's time is over. Time to get back to fundamentals, like production of goods that add real value to the economy.
And if that means bringing back our manufacturing base at the expense of short-term profits for the captains of industry (who were loving those sweatshop rates) well then fck them anyway.
People need jobs, and want to perform work that has real meaning. How many realtors and party planners does the country really need?
cougar
Agree..there's too much working against it
Let's not forget that the the middle class workers of the US have been trained and conditioned to tolerate much more in the way of lies, bullshit and government sanctioned theft than the upstart peasants China has to deal with every time there is little employment problem. They have not yet unlocked the secret of American Idol. Docile, compliant, meek and hard working - what's not to like? well done, Elites To Whom We Look For Guidance Every Day.
You are so right!!!!
Half the workforce in the US are now women.
I'm just saying.
cougar
"- Most countries depend on keeping their currency cheap to fund exports to the US."
Until they don't.
Yup how about that yen and those yuan. Now that's getting to be some serious buying power.
I speak not to disprove these wise and honorable men, but I speak what I do know. I cannot disprove Bernanke's statement that this recession is over, I can only disprove his statements from last year.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
It would seem likely you've never been to any of the places you're talking
about, at least not to do actual business.
- What does 40% have to do with anything... what, this time can't be worse?
- "Most Countries"... You mean China and Japan? Yes they maintain loose
pegs. but they are now selling Dollars.
- You've never been to China, I think. The US is not structurally competitive,
and will not be, period.
- This arbitrary set of countries is different from the US exactly how?
- Why do people think the US "has strengths in tech"? Have you been to The
Valley lately... glass buildings you can see straight through. Have you been
to Shenzen or Tokyo lately... Engineers and Scientists literally in every office
and real Research into fundamental/applied science in every University. US
(really westerners) are a Laughing Stalk, thought of as Marketing Idiots who
buy the products Engineers build at ODMs in the SEZ or DG.
China and Japan have real productive capacity... the US does not with its
70% consumer GDP. There are other markets, remember.
There are some hard truths here. I don't know that the US can turn the corner this time. I don't know what comes after.
We can stop a military invasion, but we can't stop foreigners from buying up the country with stronger currencies. After that, there's not much left of conquer.
cougar
We couldn't stop the 9/11/01 invasion.
we couldn't stop the 9/11 invasion because
it was done usa intelligence!!
Actually, I think that invasion happened in '63
Your avatar fits.
71...well that should put us somewhere around 1200 on the S&P. The commoditization of equity markets is a small price we are paying for Q/E. Every tick down in the dollar is another market ramp for the HFT.
Stop trying to short the Government run freight train, you are just helping their cause!!!!!
could very be that during the next leg down we see the stock market and dollar go down in tandem.
the recession is declared over by the same man who said he didn't see it coming in the first place...
well i guess it's time to raise interest rates and withdraw the 500b usd credit line of the fdic, close down maiden lane, talf, tarp, stimulus, and bernanke's asshole....
somehow i don't see the dollar going to 71....
That last bit, i don't want to close it, I'd rather like to take a spiked bat up it
if you don t see that, well then, recession the sequel might lurk there right about ahead.
don t know about (the timing of) its declaration tho...
I don't know about the total withdrawal of Fed involvement, but I do agree that the DXY will find support above 71.
My reasoning, you may ask?
We are winding down QE 1.0 starting in October with the Fed pulling away from UST purchases. Auctions will get more interesting.
Treasury has been living off Fed sposored artificial rates. But with current capacity gone, UST still desperately needs low rates to continue to massive fianancing scheme. One way to do that is have market "agents" induce a massive flight to quality trade.
This won't happen just yet. U.S. will try to cash in on its own "investments" in TBTF entities an sell off preferred and common to the stupidest retail investor imaginable. That step seems to be in its inital stages.
Many other firms have gotten the message to issue shares/ raise capital while the window remains open. It will shut very quickly in a flight to quality trade. Insiders and the B/S ratio is telling you that internal distribution is rampant, and a change in policy is about to occur.
Monetary base growth is still there but it's peaked and growth rates are on the decline. This in an environment where there is still NO money velocity to speak of.
We will get "political" victory pronouncements over the recession now... then in only a few weeks... flight to quality. The Fedury will set the basis of QE 2.0 sometime in 2010, and the reflation trade will resume.
I am also expecting another Treasury market-saving event. I am NOT going to try to trade it. Long PMs with a tight grip.
CNBC had their bad paper is real profit pair of agreeable blokes singing in unison and perfect harmony..Sam Stovall (Dean's Witter Stocks n' Socks fame?)was one of them..as if to make a universal truth they both parroted the same theme that now since Euroland is humming and profits are coming from abroad, then great since low dollar and income forex better price! denominated, they are "worth more". Worthless sots the pair of them, they are. After all that experience, this is how they show themselves? The NYSE floor is a garage for useless garbage.
Maybe a 2 year chart of the DXY would give better perspective. We still have a support at 75 we need to take out before the all clear to 71.
Default or Print. Pretty simple. You tell the pensioner their Soc Security was a figment of imagination! Oh ya, and that little shortfall is not EVEN ON THE BOOKS YET!!! It's not included in the >$1 Trillion per year budget deficit. This is a stupid debate. They're going to print. Bucky is toast!
Problem is the money is not in the real economy. Just the dollar value erosion is getting there.
People soon face everything costing tenfold as much with half the assets they had ten years before.
Soon a share of GE and a loaf of bread will both cost $50
I feel like there is going to be a fantastic window when I graduate to take a job teaching english abroad to pay my grad school debt with reais or pesos once Im out. right until they realize they can only communicate with pasty bankrupt white folk who cant hire them or buy their shit anymore. By then hopefully Ill have mandarin down...
I think we're in run away territory. Euro shot up a coupla times today in a panic mode.
TD we are in a global economy we do not have to travel abroad to see effects of declining dollar. We see it in price of necessary goods daily. This of course is Ben's strategy but instead of inflating assets that people have on their balance sheets (like homes) liquidity is inflating assets that people want (like food, oil etc). In other words, those unemployed or stagnant wage americans are getting doubly screwed by the braindead economists at the Fed who think too highly of themselves to want to control the economy without any side effects.
The next step is probably lower. Not sure what can save it.
Tell me about it. Just returned from Italy where I was spending 3 euro on an orange fanta. My intuition is that we will see a dollar reversal soon since dollar bulls are only at like 4%.
Does China know about that "sentiment index"? Too bad cuz they can't get rid of 'em fast enough. Seriously, I've read that type of comment probably HUNDREDS of times in the past few weeks. So many people are looking at "sentiment" and going long the dollar that at this point shorting the dollar seems more contrarian.
you might be right. I was just making an observation. I have a little skin that would benefit from dollar strengthening but not enough to make or break me. We might get to the point where people attempt private transactions in gold, which would be a problem for banks. Bernanke's contention that he could pay interest on excess reserves to prevent inflation is perplexing, considering that interest would have to come from treasury debt issuance (I think), which would further weaken dollar.
I am rambling a but, but I know what you mean, sentiment can be overplayed.
The banksters shall be rich, NYC shall be rich. It's written into the constipatution.
71? I Tyler, I think you got that backward... is "17" here we come...
Following the dollar is like riding a Greyhound bus from the land of the beautiful people to Opa-Locka. Each stop gets lower on the relevance scale. As of this moment, it is in South America, some place between Quitman, GA. and Quincey, FL.
The real reason why I commented is to tell you to go to Mineweb.com. Today, you will see how owners of these types of websites cave in to the current panic for a good dollar. Today it should be called Mindweb.com
This site is a really good site to keep tract of who is mining what and how much and sending it where. I recommend this site as a source for mining information.
Today is just really unusual. Unusual from what I am not sure.
Anyone care to guess what the bearded on has converted his personal U.S. Dollar holding to?
I'd guess gold in a Swiss, or Israeli account. The only thing I'm unsure of is which of the two countries he'll escape to.
israel....it's where madoff parked the
cash as a cia agent.
Bernanke will simply say the same thing he said to Ron Paul when the dollar was dropping like a stone in 2007. Let them eat local cake. or something to that effect
You probably just nailed the bottom of the DX. It's finishing at least one small wave today/tomorrow. It very well may grind a little bit lower, but it seems very washed out at this point.
http://andystechnicals.blogspot.com/2009/09/can-stock-market-go-up-without-dx-going.html
Interesting article buried a little far down on bloomberg...talking about the "sugar high" of the one-time stimulus as we did back in 2001 and wondering we'll get a similar result this time:
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Get me Bob Prechter! I was promised a huge USD rally...
I though the dollar had hit a "major bottom". LOL!
I broke down and increased my equity holdings today. Modestly, but still. I'm starting to figure the Fed can keep this bulls**t market going for a long long while.
As Ron Paul said, the Fed is bigger than Congress and more powerful than the President. If this is what they want, this is what they'll get.
stop losses are your friends.
Well, at least Bobby Prechter has a consistent track record - OF BANKRUPTING HIS FOLLOWERS.
My neighbor down the street just had their 30 year-old married son move in. Household income doubled in the process. Green shoots!!!
Green shoots are real - at least in equity underwriting and secondary offerings:
Secondary Offerings At All Time High
Second quarter secondary market issuance totaled at
an all time high $107.9 billion, a ten fold increase
from the previous quarter of $10.8 billion and nearly
twice the amount of the previous record, set in 2008.
Equity Underwriting
Equity underwriting increased substantially this
quarter from the prior quarter, a 777.8 percent
increase to $111.6 billion from 12.7 billion.
http://debtsofanation.blogspot.com/2009/09/debts-of-spenders-secondary-o...
Here a blast from the past, nov 2007 to be exact.
Representative Paul
How can you do this and pursue this policy you have without further weakening the dollar? There is a dollar crisis out there, and people’s money is being stolen. People who have saved are being robbed. If you have devaluation of the dollar by 10 percent, people are being robbed of 10 percent. But how can you pursue this policy without addressing the subject that somebody is losing their wealth because of a weaker dollar? And it is going to lead to higher interest rates and a weaker economy.
Chairman Bernanke
If somebody has their wealth in dollars and they are going to buy consumer goods in dollars who is a typical American, then the decline in the dollar, the only effect it has on their buying power is it makes imported goods more expensive.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul524.html
We not need worry about that dollar.
Does this lunatic know about our the trade deficit?
JP Morgan also doing its part to pump world markets:
$1 billion in funds to emerging markets -
lhttp://debtsofanation.blogspot.com/2009/09/debts-of-lenders-jp-morgan-le...
We will soon be using the dollar to wipe our ass...
The US Dollar's new name: the Schumer.
Anthony Weiner's dad. Charles Schumer? I think so!
Weiner--> http://img.wonkette.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/anthony_weiner.jpg
Schumer--> http://zionismexplained.org/infiltration/C%20Schumer.jpg
Fibo fans are a Rorschach test.
What really matters will be whether the duck breaks 76 for two days.
Just remember is all about the "solution". It is all ready to go-a dollar replacement most assuredly. A new currency be it a regional one related to the north americas or let's cut right to the end game, get rid of them all and go global. Real people are really suffering. Most are one paycheck away from not being able to buy food. So, right now "they", the PTB, have the population in a reactionary mode and its only just begining to ramp up. You need sheer panic and utter destruction of what gives one security to accept the solution (which is anything perceived to be a savior). The PTB know exactly what they are doing.
Also here is another primed fuse and no telling when its time to cross the border and get a nice hardy meal for a change:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/starving-in-silence/article1278941/
In a country where citizens are subjected to ceaseless propaganda telling them that they live in a socialist paradise, it's the silence that tells the other side of the story.
You can stand in the middle of some Pyongyang streets, even at rush hour, and hear only the occasional sound of an automobile engine because private cars are so rare. The quiet lingers, too, in the so-called industrial towns, their skylines dominated by smokestacks that never seem to be in use.
The silence is the sound of an economy in collapse, and nowhere is it more noticeable than in the countryside beyond the showcase capital city. Here, farmers tend their crops with hoes, shovels and their bare hands while the occasional piece of rusting farm equipment - rendered useless by a fuel shortage - sits idle amid the vast fields of rice and corn.
Despite having more arable land per capita than the United Kingdom or Belgium, North Korea is chronically, desperately short of food, and spiralling downward into its worst crisis in a decade.
The United Nations says some 8.7 million North Koreans - more than one third of the population of 23 million - are in need of food aid, marking the country's worst food crisis since a famine in the late 1990s that by some estimates claimed the lives of three million people.
Almost three-quarters of North Korean households have reduced their food intake, and malnutrition among children under the age of 5 has risen dramatically, a result of diarrhea caused by eating food scrounged from the wild.
Here's a mind game for you. I'll start by providing you with an unrelated resource, a constraint and then a dynamic. The resource is energy, the constraint is energy is limited, the dynamic is western quality of life. The problem is there isn't enough energy in the world to provide the western quality of life to the whole world. Now substitue economic power for energy. If "western quality of life" can be directly related to economic power, and U.S. economic power is shifting to the east, what will happen to our quality of life? Is the quality of life value an average? If so, what percent of low quality of life will it take to balance the few high quality of life individuals? Does it follow that the fewer mega rich there are the more mega poor there'll be? No doubt if you're reading this you aren't one of the few mega rich, so questions is, when do the poor revolt?
[when do] When they are not prepared to starve to death.
Hunger is the great motivator.
Watch the crime reports; stealing food will the the first sign that the game is nearly up.
cougar
the question is then. has the chinese put as it is called cause the overdue decoupling of the dollar from gold?
wait a minute. paging robert prechter, paging robert prechter hello come in.....:)
Bobby has gone AWOL...I REPEAT...Bobby Prechter has gone AWOL...last seen putting a gun to his banker's head telling him to loan him money so he could go long the dollar...
What was the USD trading last year during the holidays?...NYC was crawling with UK/Euro shopping and saved us from starvation...Repeat!
Maybe they were polling football fans at the Big House after the game Saturday. I do doubt though not too many fans from Detroit made it to Ann Arbor to participate. Judging from the daily carnage being reported in the Detroit papers, the city should be under martial law within the next 6 months.
USD Index monthly signals are still giving bullish warnings.
Weekly chart is currently bearish.
more:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook
I'm new to all this cuffufle (student), I see the euro/usd pair (using this pair as a gauge) way over its 1994-2007 technical levels and climbing solid for the last 7 months.
Wallowing in my ignorant bliss I would assume that a pair would begin returning to its orginal levels when economic recovery is in play? i.e. Back to normal and the normal range. Oh, how did the boy go so wrong?
For my uneducated eye, the eurusd pair took a massive run up before crashing into the pool of the abysis last year, and at its curent levels, uneducated remember, looks like its about to do it again.
Correct this wayward fool.
Are you asking a bunch of overthinking simpletons helplessly trapped in the present about the future?!
I can only correct you in terms of your framing of the question, in that you should read 'IF/when economic recovery is in play?'
Assumptions are a terrible guide when making decisions surrounding these things.
I can say with some confidence however, that another crash of the eur/usd ratio would likely inflict tremendous harm unto the federal reserve's balance sheet, the balance sheet that backs the dollar. Logically, that should hurt the value of the dollar, so any such crash would be short lived in my humble opinion.
Last line of Gann Support...maybe it will give us a support bounce?
I think the higher gold price is a hint that the market will retrace soon. With the Dow at 9,200k, that will boost the dollar as leverage evaporates. Further, nearly every time in the past that gold had a run up while the dollar was weak, it was driven back down by a market slump.
When gold hits $900 again, buy some more.
*Not a professional trader and not responsible for YOU losing money.*
I think gold will go through the roof FAST, unexpectedly, and most people will miss the magic point. Basically, that will only be when the Fed has exhausted everything and is nearly collapsed, with China with our balls in a vice.
There are all kinds of concessions we could make to China at this point... we are not at that critical point yet. The manipulators still have the power of manipulation. We know this because the market is still going up.
When the market is tanking and the dollar still drops, and we break 9,000... gold will shoot to the moon, especially if China pushes the gold bug.
I think the higher gold price is a hint that the market will retrace soon. With the Dow at 9,200k, that will boost the dollar as leverage evaporates. Further, nearly every time in the past that gold had a run up while the dollar was weak, it was driven back down by a market slump.
When gold hits $900 again, buy some more.
*Not a professional trader and not responsible for YOU losing money.*
I think gold will go through the roof FAST, unexpectedly, and most people will miss the magic point. Basically, that will only be when the Fed has exhausted everything and is nearly collapsed, with China with our balls in a vice.
There are all kinds of concessions we could make to China at this point... we are not at that critical point yet. The manipulators still have the power of manipulation. We know this because the market is still going up.
When the market is tanking and the dollar still drops, and we break 9,000... gold will shoot to the moon, especially if China pushes the gold bug.