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Next Stop On Shanghai Composite: 2719; Subsequent Supports At 2574 And 2320
The beating in Shanghai is getting serious. Here are some technical levels from Credit Suisse, which sees 2719 on the SHCOMP as the next support. If taken out: whoosh (which is a technical name for a drop all the way to 2320).
Per CS:
The Shanghai Composite looks to be heading for a test of 2719, where the neckline to the Q2/Q3 base is expected to offer support.
The Shanghai Composite has already completed a minor top below 2932, and looks to be heading towards 2719, where the neckline to the Q2/Q3 base should elicit renewed buying interest. We would look for a recovery attempt to emerge from this area, expecting the 2932 level to initially prompt hesitation. Extension through 2932 should set a better tone, with the index then needing to remove resistance at 3160/87 to re-energise upward momentum and target 3361 next.
Below 2719 should see congestion extending down to 2574/64 contain further weakness. Below this latter area would warn of a more significant bearish failure, warning of further weakness to 2389, maybe even the 2320 low.
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Exporting Inflation Bitchez !
Uncle Ben = Pomo/QE = Food Riots
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Hu-m53qLsU
We have seen this before. Then Europe will come out flat or even up and the US will juice the markets and all will be well again. Unfortunately this pattern will repeat itself until... it doesn't. Then everyone who was buying on Cramer's advice will be hating life as we know it.
The best way to beat this market is to not be in it.
Exactly, futures hardly down here. And everything is improving here. All regional manufacturing surveys, with the exception of Empire State, all showed nice improvement.
Restaurant index is best in two years. The pick up in the US economy is now in full swing. Meeting today with several distributers who said they could not keep up with demand this season. Interested to hear more stories like this tomorrow.
If the US economy in its current form is improving, that means the trade deficit is getting bigger.
Nobody should care what the "restaurant index" says, because it doesn't matter. Would we have a sustainable economy if everyone worked at a restaurant? We need to make stuff. Ditto on ^ that comment about trade deficit getting bigger.
Where's my snapback rally, HarryWanker?
You keep promising one every day but your long positions are more in the red everyday, so what's with that?
NOTHING has changed, HarryWanker. If you think that The Bernank's manipulated market reflects an improvement in the economy you are in for a big surprise.
Repeat after me HarryWanker, you can't cure a debt problem with more debt......again....
When I see the flag avatar, it's a signal to scroll down the page. It's like watching CNBC with the sound on.
restaurant index? someone needs a class in human psychology and escapism. They're up because it's a cheap "outting" in comparison to many other "escapes". Brother, I know less than half as much as I think I know about the markets and I still think you're clueless when it comes to "people watching".
Eyes on Europe but the game changer comes from Asia. And it can move REALLY fast with HFT.
It's not HFT. Already for more then 2 weeks now, big funds have been preparing to short hong kong and china on a massive scale.
Last week the word got out for to the retail investors to step in and help finish the job.
Another rumor has it that the markets will implode 50% from last weeks levels.
they are going to be begging the Bernank, Jesus, and whatever god they believe in for the Fed to start printing again
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiGjxxytL
with some background music
I want to remind everyone that in the past week Hong Kong has taken significant steps to pour water on the real estate bubble, which has a very big impact on Chinese risk sentiment.
Think of all those mianland tycoons with personal wealth tied up in Hong Kong palaces in the sky.
You are correct. Also, China is likely trying to cool off their overheated markets, which are being driven mainly by punters...taxi drivers, housewives and others....a lot of action in the Shanghai market is Hong Kong driven. It reminds me the days back in Thailand before the currency crisis. I believe that the Chinese Gov wants to see the lower support levels blown through to clear out some of the speculators.
The little guys can't afford the real estate game so they play the market.
As you know, the market in Shanghai is basically the greater fools theory on ginseng steroids!
Indeed. Several months back I had a taxi driver offering me stock tips on the way from Pudong Airport to the Peninsula Hotel. He tried to explain his system to me, which seemed to me a mix of Feng Shui and Mah Jong.
That's the ticket...Feng Jong! The culture of risk is unfathomable by Westerners.
You show that Russian roulette scene from the Deer Hunter to an Asian and the take away is very different from the take away of a Westerner.
Right....line those tiles up correctly...and sorta read the tea leaves......5000 years of Chinese culture predicting the market. Feng Jong.....wonder how this would fare on the S&P?
Feng Jong is what stands between the world financial system and complete Armageddon!
Kinda catchy ;-)
Oh shit...I am starting to whirl a fucked-up movie script in my head over this one.....
Am I correct to assume that you are already twirling that brush in your head to come up with a visual for the...dreaded Feng Jong?
;-)
My goodness.......I like that perspective example. Kaba Kick!
Well..tried to paste a pic of a hilarious ad for kaba Kick...but guess am not allowed to do that.
Yes Feng Jong (c) and Kaba Kick, that sums it all up nicely ;-)
Thank you for that, Willie!
I am thinking about doing something on Feng Jong ;-)
My God, evil minds think alike...see above few seconds ago post:)
Could Feng Jong drive the USA to Balkanize? I posted this yesterday into a late-night black hole on an old post...maybe it can tie in and add a dollop of paint on your mental palette.....or, maybe not!
Actually, it would probably be nice from investment standpoint if every US state created its own currency...Texas could have something like "star" note, Michigan maybe a "car" note (with an Edsel on the face of it)....Florida could use the Cuban Peso (back in the '80's it would have been "blow" notes), and Alabama maybe the Dinar or something. Think of the arbitrage possibilities! And...none of this Fiat bullshit we have now...every state would have to back their currency with the "coin" of the realm, as it where. Texas would be oil based, New York financial profits based, Vermont backed by maple syrup, Florida by cocaine...well, maybe coke is not so cool anymore...how about real estate based? Ok...that works. Michigan could be backed on the murder rate index, tennessee on country music profits, Hawaii on marijuana, and California on stupid fucking left wing bullshit. Hell....we could even take this down to cities! San Francisco: alvocado flavored condoms....holy mother of creeping God, this could go on forever! Just think, we could turn this country into a veritable money machine....arbitrage, interstate commerce fees, exchange rate fees, every financial instrument ever invented now offers a multitude of God-fucking brilliant ways to split the money atom into quarks, charms, bosons...you fucking name it! We could become...the greatest monetary casino on earth. And....HO HO HO, we could laugh like hell at all that Euro trash with their "one currency" with no fiscal and no cultural union to go along with their "monetary union."
Ok....first thing: I want all you fucking Goldman lobbyists who are lurking on here to get your dorky asses in gear tomorrow and start working on this. You know who to get down and dirty with: Dodd, Frank...the normal crowd of brown-nosing politicos...tell that fucking Dodd he can have his own currency, and mention to Frank those avocado flavored condoms, that should get his worn-out old ass in the saddle. I guess some of you are gonna have to do the Obama thing - yeah, I know it sucks, but we need him on board on this one, maybe promise him Obama Care notes, issued only out of Chicago. If some fuck-head wants his cancer cured, he better get his hands on Obama Care Notes, or he is fucked. Thats right...now we are creating currencies for specific industries. Ok...yeah, there will be some overlap here, but hell, financial innovation is never perfect the first time, it takes a few depressions before we get the bugs worked out of these things. But...I digress, I want every 3K Italian suit asshole you have on the payroll swarming congressional offices by nine AM tomorrow. What do I want you to tell them? Fuck...I don't care! tell them we are becoming uncompetitive in a globalised world because we are stuck with a common fiat currency....tell them you saw in on Oprah....or, shit, I don't know, tell them how much money us squids are gonna shove up their campaign-contribution-poop-chutes....yeah, that might work. Anyway, just get it done. If you want to do God's work...it starts at 9 tomorrow.
Webnotes....of course, we have to get technology involved here somehow. If you want to buy anything on-line...you do it with webnotes. Screw Paypal, those assholes have been eating thier own gravy for too long now. Yes...every website issues their own currency....no...I know what the fuck you ZH'rs are saying...no its not FIAT...hell no, it is based on hit count. Is that not a valid way to base a currency? I for one, think it is. So, if I want to buy a king Kong dildo with turbo mode for my wife, do I buy it on Amazon? maybe. Depends on the currency exchange rate between the state I live in, and the rate of Amazon or Buy.com. Simple. Do you want to be able to post headline articles on ZH? it is possible, just don't be a fucking idiot, and buy enough "Fight Club" notes to pay the going freight.
so is this like beer pong over here in the states ?
Its to late.
The money is in the system already.
The property bubble in Hong Kong is an awesome thing to behold........
"Mainland’s property market remains dangerously overheated and failing to tame the speculative bubble could threaten financial and social stability, a prominent economist said in an official newspaper on Friday.
Yi Xianrong, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank in Beijing, noted estimates from electricity meter readings that there are about 64.5 million empty apartments and houses in urban areas of the country, many of them bought up by people wagering on a constantly rising property market.
In the overseas edition of the People’s Daily, Yi said the ”shocking” level of empty housing showed the dangers brought by the country’s property boom, which the central government has been trying to cool."
Make a market...and they will come.
What is so amazing about Hong Kong is the still raging price increases...some commercial property is being sold by the square inch (in US terms).
They take their companies and invest in Mainland real estate projects. Then take their personal fortune and park it in HK real estate and REITs.
As I have commented before, the whole mentality regarding risk and real estate is culturally different is Asia.
The stock market is a game. Real estate is the measure of true success.
You are right, Willie, I have seen it in China, Thailand and in Malaysia..and to some lesser respects, in Singapore. It is seen much like gambling with your buddies in a back alley. And, you bring up a sobering point as well...a stock market bust is just a calculated loss...a real estate bust could have serious social consequences.
14 Charts ~
140% nationwide house price rise since 2007 Outstanding real estate developer loans are up 50% in two yearshttp://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-land-prices-2010-7#140-nationwide...
(Can you say Bubble)
Private housing investment accounted for 15.1% of total investment volume in urban areas in 2008, and 13.2% in 2009. The private housing sector currently accounts for over one third (37.1% in 2007 and 36.9% in 2008) of the buildings completed by the construction industry, and the construction industry is one of the most important industries in China. Its output constitutes 5.7% of Chinese GDP; it employs 14.3% of all workers in urban areas; and it consumes about 40% of all steel and lumber produced in China.Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-land-prices-2010-7##ixzz16kS5fYzW
I don't want to stir too much worry, but think of how many Bernanke Bucks are tied up in the Asian Feng Jong bubble.
I will.
Beijing land prices is up 788% in eight yearsState-owned enterprises -- which pay around 27% above market value -- are leading the property grab ~~~~~~~~~A.K.A Bad Money ~ Non Performing Loans
What's the problem...100% per annum is the new norm...you "perma-gloomers".
LOL
Well.....lets just say that the blow-back could be intense. It might be time for the Chinese gov to start counting those BB's as a unit of the RMB. If Feng Jong does bust out - like Bird Flu and possibly Kaba Kick...then there are gonna be some big banks in the US whose balls are gonna explode.
They are all here...POMO day in NY is a side game
Then I assume you are keeping your sword sharp. POMO is just that little advertisement selling war bonds in an old B&W war flick starring Ronald Reagen and Betty Davis at the local Bijou.....when everyone went off to piss and load up on popcorn and coke.
And maybe I am way off base....but I see your juxtaposition of the guitar and the sword as a kind of reverse of what may seem obvious...I see it as taking false reality and chopping it up into basic particles and then reasembling them into valid music per the guitar. And...maybe I just think too much;)
Ya think? ;-)
Sounds like the US post 2004.
I noted a few week ago how dozens of local banks in Shanghai are hiring in massive quantities people who are knowledgeable on derivatives, risk and international markets. The timing of this massive hiring spree coupled with more rate hikes and the composite expected to take a beating can't be good.
Let's not panic, the SPU's have yet to demonstrate any fear...
What about 2574?
If a nation's currency is backed by a known stockpile of gold, does it make the currency more stable/strong (not the US so dont read into it)? If a nation's currency is backed by a known stockpile of IOU's with quesitonable valuation, does it make its currency vulnerable?
"at the end of the day" (couldnt resist) Someone with a billion in US FRN can buy a lot of shit in the US and take possession. Can someone with a +billion Yuan buy a bunch of chinese companies and take possession? I would take the FRNs.
Just buy gold and enjoy less volitility and more returns. And let me say...bitchez!
urrterrilble, right on but please remember, our gold can be very, very Volatile. Just part of the game with no extra charge. Having said that, not selling 1 ounce or 1 miner.
Sold out my miners a few weeks back, sitting with dry powder for some opportunities later.
And loving every bit of the falling AUD, doing wonders for my gold and silver.
Gold has been less volatile than stocks for a while ;)
Thats a sign of the times. Used to be gold market was all about volatility.
Are we really living this or is it just one huge nightmare. Who is next? The list of players is long. Every day a new show. Amazing.
Sometimes I just have to shake my head and re-gather my thoughts. As I tell my kids in the classroom: You are very, very privileged to have front-row seats at the biggest show in over a thousand years. Maybe ever.
+1
That's literally and metaphorically true, and a good way to look at it.
The Tulip Frenzy ain't got nuttin' on us!
DOW Hits 10,127 by 1/1/2011 Harry Wagner donates $100.00 to ZH
Wagner! [sic] LMAO!
(maybe Congresswoman Kaptur sent him?)
Where will all the money flow whne their stock and real estate markets crash at the same time in the midst of rampant inflation? What would the Chinese possibly use to store their wealth?
NFLX, PCLN and APPL of course!
Whatever it is, I hear it ought to be edible.
Looks like they are choosing sugar coated cotton.
They can't eat that, Milo, it'll make them sick.
All what money?
The problem is; lack of it.
I'll bite..."GOLD"...
China's stock market is off 13% based on today's intra-day data since the top on Nov 11th.
How is it that the US market is off only about 3%?
Pft, they dont have POMO days, FED, and most importantly a Brian Sack... We are very lucky, and somtimes people take it for granted.
Give it the year end.
Eurozone not going away this time. Only a new eu IMF bailout doubling will excite.
The currency game is in full effect, except for the US.
Nikkei only off 2% from highs because Yen has been weakening
DAX only off 2% from highs because Euro has been weakening
China off 13% on rate hike rumors and because US dollar has been rising, making EU exports more expensive
Relax, Shanghai index will not drop too much from here. Chinese gov. will buy in important stocks when these stocks are too low, i.e banks, oils, mining and gold producers. They will not allow hot money buy these cheap, this time they are ready to fight Soros.
Exactly.
And in an Anakin Skywalker* kinda way, POMO is doing the same thing for the United States - not letting us get sold off too cheaply. From the perspective of the elites that run the country, this counts as being in the national interest.
* Young Lord Vader: From my point of view, the Jedi are evil!
I wonder if this is related to the epidemic of diesel shortages which are intensifying in China...elevated prices on nonexistent volume. Looks like the waste based economy is coming apart at the seams over yonder.
2 round trips on NZD so far.
Getting tired.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1E_y4g-3mM&feature=branded
Gonna get stopped on #3, I just know it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7FqUNlEdwA
Want to cover at .7412
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJn9Acwn17Q&NR=1
Tokyo earthquake shakes Japan, is a haarp involved?
Just this stoned asian
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnyZyiq6N1w&feature=related
Shanghai reversing strongly into the close today. Similar to US indices. Moving up nicely her.
I prefer moving up nicely on her.
Have another, Harry.
It's down 2.6 % ......Lol'
Bounced nicely off 2765 key level. Reversed from over 3% down and moving up into the close.
Lol'
I hope your right I'm all in on US Steel I need $70 before the next crash lol'...
Why you worry about stocks, when Fx is in it's prime, is beyond me, Harry.
Yer effing AAPL would buy a lot of contracts, and return more.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whXeb7Ohfkk
I'm very much a latecomer. (Fuck, wasted my college years, studied psych...)
If China gets into any meaningful trouble, what keeps them from dumping US bonds? Seems like it should be a MAD scenario.
It is, as the fed now has lots of US bonds too.
Meanwhile in the UK, council meeting stormed, police overpowered by anti austerity protestors.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-11870742
The steam is building.
Interesting.
Dateline September 30, 1931: Throughout yesterday & last night, police & demonstrators, most of them unemployed, clashed in London as a month of strikes protesting at the Government's austerity programme, grew to a close.
*Dr No
I've been doing business in the Middle Kingdom for a decade or so and it is not uncommon to visit printers (for me it was getting retail packaging and catalogue printing completed), where they actually have fake currency in their work folios to show you "the quaritee of heidelberg printing machine from the germany".
Last going price I was quoted was 20RMB for 100RMB in fakes. When pressing the point that even cab drivers check for fakes I was told, "ahh werr, we orso make-a the coin". So not even the humble 1RMB coin is real.
I would take FRNs or hand fulls of monkey shit over the RMB any day!
From empty sky rises/cities, speculative warehouses full of aluminium ingots bought with money allocated for capital infrastructure projects, state-owned enterprises unable to service zero interest loans, fake companies getting listed on the NYSE
.....................Feng Jong is coming and hell's coming with him!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yjr7NtntWeQ
sittin' back watchin' gold take off :)
i find support and resistance numbers useless data....people say it broke 2900 so the next stop is 2732.....but it went up didnt it
Failed bond auction = equity market decline. Nothing too hard to figure out but the charts are ominous....
I don't think tech analysis is as effective on a market completely under the control of CCP. Their line in the sand should be at 2560 from what I have observed in the past year.