NFP -20,000, Consensus +15,000, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (U3 And U6) Surges To Record 10.6% And 18%

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Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:12 | 218783 E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

Cramer was right! Buy! Buy! Buy!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:13 | 218786 Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

Ain't no hope with out that MOPE

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:16 | 218791 Stuart
Stuart's picture

These figures are becoming less and less meaningful in every release.  They are much more a political tool for the puppet masters to roll out than they are a true economic indicator.  

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:36 | 219007 Andrei Vyshinsky
Andrei Vyshinsky's picture

Yes, and particularly now when the "recovery" worm appears to have turned. What to do now when the market is beginning to tank again and a second dip at some point later this year seems all but assured. Like undertakers, these maggots will do just anything to put some rouge on the pallor.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:55 | 219044 gold_tracker
gold_tracker's picture

Yeah. It's pretty much looking like that to me as well. In fact I am not so sure that they aren't using these reports to keep everyone on the street confused.

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 22:20 | 221673 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

watch the weekly numbers
480,000 and going up ,waiting for the break over 500,000

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:15 | 218792 MongNutter
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so.... Is this a blatant lie / act of deception or just more purposeful obfuscation?  Is the non-seasonally adjusted # plucked out of thin air?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:16 | 218794 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

SS, DD.  I suppose the markets will go up at first, and then later in the AM traders will remember what's going on in the real (read, "Non-Seasonally Adjusted") world, and then things will drop off sharply, and we'll get the 2:30 PM ramp job going into the weekend.  Oh, on declining volume.

Close enough?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:24 | 218826 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Very nicely put: relaxed, and matter-of-fact.  

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | 218838 docj
docj's picture

Looks like the drop-off is already happening.  The DXY, which actually broke just over 80.40 overnight, dropped like a stone from 80.21 to 80.02 on the news.  It's now back up to 80.25 and climbing.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:16 | 218795 ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

nice futures reversal on voodoo stat release

i want to ride THAT one daddy! weeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!

wonder how much steam this will have going into today's session. the bear market rally seems like it is gasping for air

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:21 | 218816 HelluvaEngineer
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I wonder how many 50 and 60-somethings put in sell orders last night

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:49 | 218891 ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

speaking for myself, i ditched my last long this morning. i feel so relieved. this thing is going down the crapper

 

mom & pop are going to stand by like they always do until they see 20% losses then they'll call their broker and say "hey, brian williams didn't make it seem THIS bad." basically i know it's time to start buying about a week after my dad says he's going to sell. and vice versa. that is my best indicator

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:27 | 218994 WaterWings
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Yo, Teriyaki, that's some funny sheiße. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:17 | 218796 suteibu
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SO, I guess this means we don't need the big new stimilus....er....jobs program now.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:38 | 219109 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Apple will release the new 'iBrator' soon - tech will go through the roof again...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:17 | 218797 nedwardkelly
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Not sure how to take the Temp agency rise... Hiring temp workers is more expensive long term, more cost effective short term. There's work that needs to be done, but apparently businesses are willing to pay more short term to avoid a longer term commitment. That's confidence!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | 218841 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Meme is that temp is a leading indicator hence the hgihlight in the BLS report. The number itself is immaterial, it is the transmission mechanism to fit the narrative. On the other hand good thing for the +42 retail blowout. Of course wouldn't know it from th store closing or revpar or rest traffic indicators.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:59 | 219053 nedwardkelly
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Meme is that temp is a leading indicator hence the hgihlight in the BLS report.

 

Right... I guess I shouldn't have been thinking "what does this particular number mean" I should have been thinking "what is their motivation for including this particular number in the report"

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:43 | 218874 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

9,000 of the temp workers are for the census.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:55 | 218907 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The Administration is working on a perpetual hiring loop where they are going to create an entire division of people whose job it is to count the census workers. There will be then be a third group created to count those people, and so on and so forth.

All of these people will be required to become public employee union members.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:20 | 218806 slovester
slovester's picture

I wonder how many people are employed by the Feds who sole job function is to calculate just how large of a lie the government can make out of reported numbers and still have the majority of the idiot citizenry believe them.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:21 | 218812 suteibu
suteibu's picture

They don't call it the "Headline" number for nothing.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:22 | 218817 deadhead
deadhead's picture

there is some discrepancy in hrs worked....it did increase by .1% but some reports have it going from prior of 33.2 to 33.2 (reuters) and b'berg shows 33.8 to 33.9.  i reviewed bls.gov quickly and they showed an increase of .1% to 33.9.  perhaps something to do with the modeling changes they made?

all i know is that modeling changes were made for this month and we now have a bls reporting mechanism that jumped the shark a long time ago and has been a  clusterfuck that has turned into an even larger clusterfuck.  whether you are a bull or a bear, you just got to laugh at the inanity of these gov't numbers.....

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:34 | 218849 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

The new model:

Pick a number you are comfortable with, say 9.7%, then massage the "data" until you get there.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:08 | 218942 SDRII
SDRII's picture

in other words, investment banking. Makes sense

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:54 | 219041 Rainman
Rainman's picture

....or filling out that good ol' 1040.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:09 | 219164 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Hey - this is how I got through chemistry

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:22 | 218819 Careless Whisper
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a little background music while viewing the charts. remember... one pill makes you smaller...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HmJQyS8QVw

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | 218820 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Makes perfect sense even a six year can not see through.

Job losses every month, every month, every month, yet, unemployment rate improves.

Nice to see every MSM outlet talking up the improved unemployment rate

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:38 | 218863 bobby02
bobby02's picture

"I think that the headline payrolls number uses the establishment survery while unemployment is based on the household data. If you actually go get the data, you will see that the establishment survery shows job gains of 541k, not the losses in the household data."

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:06 | 218936 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Yes, 52,000 temp jobs added in January including 9,000 temp census workers in January. Big "F"ing deal.

It is pretty hard to augue that these temp jobs are hired in a prelude to full time employment when hours worked are less than 34 week.

U6 is at 18%. Working part time (w/ no health benefits) for low wages is not a job which will add to the economy.

The survey size of the household date is about 1/8th the size of the BLS data and not reliable at all......as if the BLS data is reliable!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:44 | 219024 bobby02
bobby02's picture

No offense and don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending the government’s data. It’s just the 95% of the posts in this (and other) threads see government conspiracies, lies, manipulation everywhere. It may be so, but before make such a strong accusation, I think it wise to at least look at the original data, something that clearly very, very few actually do. For all the criticism of CNBC, it seems to be the principal news source of many.

Your post is predicated on a false statement, namely “Job losses every month . . . yet unemployment rate improves” when the data, accurate or not, clearly shows gains.

Both surveys have their pluses and minuses and neither is perfect. Still, is nice to have some measure of unemployment. (All the alternatives I have seen, liking counting want ads, don’t seem better.) That the methodology behind these indexes is flawed, producing bizarre results, is not proof of any conspiracy, but rather indicative of the shortcoming of modeling, sampling and economics. (In some cases there is political pressure to generate desired numbers, like with the CPI, but that concerns the methodology, not massaging of the sequential data.)

I agree with your characterization that the report is generally negative, with only a few, small bright spots.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:58 | 219050 Andrei Vyshinsky
Andrei Vyshinsky's picture

"No offense and don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending the government’s data."

Yeah, I noticed.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:03 | 219061 nedwardkelly
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It’s just the 95% of the posts in this (and other) threads see government conspiracies, lies, manipulation everywhere.

 

I don't believe many of the more far fetched 'conspiracies' - If a president can't keep a BJ from an intern a secret, how the F do they keep some of the apparent conspiracies secret?

But the more basic ones? The ones that involve subtle as a brick manipulation and lies? Hell yes.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:30 | 219093 bobby02
bobby02's picture

Agreed. Just wouldn't call them conspiracies. The government's methodologies are described in very fine detail for anyone to examine. There's nothing hidden from view.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:03 | 219151 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Apparently you've never worked in any field that requires data analysis...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:34 | 219215 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Obviously he has never taken Vioxx. I mean heh, "it was thoroughly tested".

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:39 | 219218 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Or that this isn't the first time a government convinced their citizens that inflation was good for them.

Cop: "These handcuffs are for your safety."

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:15 | 219175 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You think the conspiracies happen with the president involved? That's so cute!! I'm so glad JFK consipired to kill himself. LOL

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:45 | 219121 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

the data, accurate or not, clearly shows gains.

what gains? how is -20000 a gain. what month has
shown an employment gain? employment and unemployment
are asymmetrical data sets....an improvement in
the rate of change is not an improvement in the
area under the curve which is still deteriorating....

the non-seasonally adjusted data are the only
useable data since the sa data have biases built
into them...even the bls acklnowledges the need
to remove 800-900 jobs from the employment ledger...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:23 | 218821 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Wow...are they even trying to hide the lies now?  So more lost jobs and more people seeking work and the unemployment number goes down...must be the "new math".  I'm waiting for them to declare U-3 to be 4.9%, just pluck the number out of the air.  After all we have seen the numbers completely bifurcate from anything resembling reality.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:56 | 218908 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Well if the number of jobs lost is decreasing at a slower rate than the rate of people moving to the EUC category then the number could decrease, correct? Will the MSM report the EUC numbers or continue to shill for Obama?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:24 | 218824 digalert
digalert's picture

Will Ripley's believe it or not have a new category, UE reports?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | 218839 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Unemployment is a big problem, But there a lot more tasty treats haunting this market. Smart investors will not fall for this number. The big problem lies in Europe and Asia. The USA has more things to worry about including this Bogus UE number.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:51 | 218895 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Don't worry.  The coming war will solve all of our unemployment problems!
What war?  Why, pick a country out of a hat and we'll attack it.  After all, we haven't found ALL the terrorists yet....

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:55 | 219045 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

You are right, are you enlisting? You would make an excellent corporal, just be careful with the fire arms and those terrorist waiting for you to be captured and properly punished! After all those trading success you had now it's time for some other achievements, on battlefield! Go for it man!!!!!!!!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:49 | 219487 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'd rather get eaten by bears than join the army.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:32 | 218844 doggis
doggis's picture

is 9.7% a back of the napkin number, or does it come from the 9 chinese leaders that set GDP numbers? either way neither has its reporting root in anything real.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:49 | 218890 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

No, .5% of people got discouraged and stopped looking for work!  CNBS told me so!

Gun those futures...Buy buy buy!!!  Mooooo!!!

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