NFP -20,000, Consensus +15,000, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (U3 And U6) Surges To Record 10.6% And 18%

Tyler Durden's picture

The January NFP number came in at -20,000, a mere 5k away from Goldman's -25,000 estimate. Consensus was for +15,000. December, as all prior months, saw an expected major downward revision to -150,000 from -85,000. The January Birth/Death adjustment was for -427K from +25K in December. Despite a deterioration in every metric, the unemployment rate dropped from 10.% to 9.7%, even with a consensus at 10.0%. A glitch in the excel model is further corroborated when one considers that the civilian labor force participation rate actually rose in January from 64.6 to 64.7.

Yet a number that avoids some of the constant fudging by the BLS, the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number, hit a new recent record: instead of 9.7%, this number was 10.6%, a 0.9% increase from December!

The same can be seen in the U-6 data. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%, even as the seasonally adjusted number declined to 16.5%.

SA U-6:

And here is the Non Seasonally Adjusted U-6:

Below is the full text of the BLS Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situtation:

     Employment in temporary help services grew by 52,000 over the month.  This industry, which provides workers to other businesses, has added nearly a quarter of a million jobs since its recent low point last September.  Following 2 months of little change, retail trade employment increased by 42,000 in January, with gains in several components.  Health care employment continued to rise in January.  Overall, manufacturing employment was little changed, although motor vehicles and parts added 23,000 jobs.  Since June, the manufacturing workweek for all employees has increased by 1.2 hours.
    
     Federal government employment rose in January, partly due to hiring for the decennial census.  Employment in state and local governments, excluding education, continued to trend down over the month.
    
     Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private sector rose by 4 cents in January to $22.45.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent.  From December 2008 to December 2009, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 2.8 percent.
    
     Turning now to some measures from our household survey, both the number of unemployed persons (14.8 million) and the unemployment rate (9.7 percent) declined in January.  However, the share of those jobless for 27 weeks and over continued to rise.
    
     The employment-population ratio increased to 58.4 percent over the month.  The number of persons working part time who would have preferred full-time employment dropped from 9.2 to 8.3 million, the lowest level in a year.
    
     Before closing, I would note that several changes were introduced today to the Employment Situation news release text and tables.  Three new household survey tables provide information on the employment status of veterans, persons with a disability, and the foreign-born population. 

In January, the unemployment rate of veterans from Gulf War era II (September 2001 to the present) was 12.6 percent, compared with 10.4 percent for nonveterans.  Persons with a disability had a higher jobless rate than persons with no disability--15.2 versus 10.4 percent. In addition, 21.8 percent of persons with a disability were in the labor force, compared with 70.1 percent of persons without a disability.  The unemployment rate for the foreign born was 11.8 percent, and the rate
for the native born was 10.3 percent.  (The data in these new tables are not seasonally adjusted.)
    
     The establishment survey tables have been redesigned to include the addition of data on hours and earnings for all private-sector employees as well as employment information for women.  Women currently make up 49.9 percent of total nonfarm payroll employment, compared with 48.8 percent when the recession began in December 2007.  Additional information about the new and redesigned tables is available on the BLS Web site.
    
     I would also note that there were annual adjustments to data from our two surveys.  The establishment survey data released today reflect the incorporation of annual benchmark revisions. Each year, we re-anchor our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts of employment, primarily derived from administrative records of the unemployment insurance tax system. Accounting for revisions during the benchmark and post-benchmark periods, the previously published level of total nonfarm
employment for December 2009 was revised downward by 1,363,000. Household survey data for January reflect updated population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.  Further information about the impact of these adjustments is contained in our news release and on our Web site.

   
     Returning now to the labor market data we released this morning, the jobless rate declined to 9.7 percent in January, and payroll employment was essentially unchanged.
    
     My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions.

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E pluribus unum's picture

Cramer was right! Buy! Buy! Buy!

Lord Blankcheck's picture

Ain't no hope with out that MOPE

Stuart's picture

These figures are becoming less and less meaningful in every release.  They are much more a political tool for the puppet masters to roll out than they are a true economic indicator.  

Andrei Vyshinsky's picture

Yes, and particularly now when the "recovery" worm appears to have turned. What to do now when the market is beginning to tank again and a second dip at some point later this year seems all but assured. Like undertakers, these maggots will do just anything to put some rouge on the pallor.

gold_tracker's picture

Yeah. It's pretty much looking like that to me as well. In fact I am not so sure that they aren't using these reports to keep everyone on the street confused.

Anonymous's picture

watch the weekly numbers
480,000 and going up ,waiting for the break over 500,000

MongNutter's picture

so.... Is this a blatant lie / act of deception or just more purposeful obfuscation?  Is the non-seasonally adjusted # plucked out of thin air?

swmnguy's picture

SS, DD.  I suppose the markets will go up at first, and then later in the AM traders will remember what's going on in the real (read, "Non-Seasonally Adjusted") world, and then things will drop off sharply, and we'll get the 2:30 PM ramp job going into the weekend.  Oh, on declining volume.

Close enough?

Gordon Freeman's picture

Very nicely put: relaxed, and matter-of-fact.  

docj's picture

Looks like the drop-off is already happening.  The DXY, which actually broke just over 80.40 overnight, dropped like a stone from 80.21 to 80.02 on the news.  It's now back up to 80.25 and climbing.

ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

nice futures reversal on voodoo stat release

i want to ride THAT one daddy! weeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!

wonder how much steam this will have going into today's session. the bear market rally seems like it is gasping for air

HelluvaEngineer's picture

I wonder how many 50 and 60-somethings put in sell orders last night

ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

speaking for myself, i ditched my last long this morning. i feel so relieved. this thing is going down the crapper

 

mom & pop are going to stand by like they always do until they see 20% losses then they'll call their broker and say "hey, brian williams didn't make it seem THIS bad." basically i know it's time to start buying about a week after my dad says he's going to sell. and vice versa. that is my best indicator

WaterWings's picture

Yo, Teriyaki, that's some funny sheiße. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

suteibu's picture

SO, I guess this means we don't need the big new stimilus....er....jobs program now.

Anonymous's picture

Apple will release the new 'iBrator' soon - tech will go through the roof again...

nedwardkelly's picture

Not sure how to take the Temp agency rise... Hiring temp workers is more expensive long term, more cost effective short term. There's work that needs to be done, but apparently businesses are willing to pay more short term to avoid a longer term commitment. That's confidence!

SDRII's picture

Meme is that temp is a leading indicator hence the hgihlight in the BLS report. The number itself is immaterial, it is the transmission mechanism to fit the narrative. On the other hand good thing for the +42 retail blowout. Of course wouldn't know it from th store closing or revpar or rest traffic indicators.

nedwardkelly's picture

Meme is that temp is a leading indicator hence the hgihlight in the BLS report.

 

Right... I guess I shouldn't have been thinking "what does this particular number mean" I should have been thinking "what is their motivation for including this particular number in the report"

KidHorn's picture

9,000 of the temp workers are for the census.

Anonymous's picture

The Administration is working on a perpetual hiring loop where they are going to create an entire division of people whose job it is to count the census workers. There will be then be a third group created to count those people, and so on and so forth.

All of these people will be required to become public employee union members.

slovester's picture

I wonder how many people are employed by the Feds who sole job function is to calculate just how large of a lie the government can make out of reported numbers and still have the majority of the idiot citizenry believe them.

suteibu's picture

They don't call it the "Headline" number for nothing.

deadhead's picture

there is some discrepancy in hrs worked....it did increase by .1% but some reports have it going from prior of 33.2 to 33.2 (reuters) and b'berg shows 33.8 to 33.9.  i reviewed bls.gov quickly and they showed an increase of .1% to 33.9.  perhaps something to do with the modeling changes they made?

all i know is that modeling changes were made for this month and we now have a bls reporting mechanism that jumped the shark a long time ago and has been a  clusterfuck that has turned into an even larger clusterfuck.  whether you are a bull or a bear, you just got to laugh at the inanity of these gov't numbers.....

 

Dixie Normous's picture

The new model:

Pick a number you are comfortable with, say 9.7%, then massage the "data" until you get there.

SDRII's picture

in other words, investment banking. Makes sense

Rainman's picture

....or filling out that good ol' 1040.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Hey - this is how I got through chemistry

Careless Whisper's picture

a little background music while viewing the charts. remember... one pill makes you smaller...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HmJQyS8QVw

 

chinaguy's picture

Makes perfect sense even a six year can not see through.

Job losses every month, every month, every month, yet, unemployment rate improves.

Nice to see every MSM outlet talking up the improved unemployment rate

bobby02's picture

"I think that the headline payrolls number uses the establishment survery while unemployment is based on the household data. If you actually go get the data, you will see that the establishment survery shows job gains of 541k, not the losses in the household data."

chinaguy's picture

Yes, 52,000 temp jobs added in January including 9,000 temp census workers in January. Big "F"ing deal.

It is pretty hard to augue that these temp jobs are hired in a prelude to full time employment when hours worked are less than 34 week.

U6 is at 18%. Working part time (w/ no health benefits) for low wages is not a job which will add to the economy.

The survey size of the household date is about 1/8th the size of the BLS data and not reliable at all......as if the BLS data is reliable!

bobby02's picture

No offense and don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending the government’s data. It’s just the 95% of the posts in this (and other) threads see government conspiracies, lies, manipulation everywhere. It may be so, but before make such a strong accusation, I think it wise to at least look at the original data, something that clearly very, very few actually do. For all the criticism of CNBC, it seems to be the principal news source of many.

Your post is predicated on a false statement, namely “Job losses every month . . . yet unemployment rate improves” when the data, accurate or not, clearly shows gains.

Both surveys have their pluses and minuses and neither is perfect. Still, is nice to have some measure of unemployment. (All the alternatives I have seen, liking counting want ads, don’t seem better.) That the methodology behind these indexes is flawed, producing bizarre results, is not proof of any conspiracy, but rather indicative of the shortcoming of modeling, sampling and economics. (In some cases there is political pressure to generate desired numbers, like with the CPI, but that concerns the methodology, not massaging of the sequential data.)

I agree with your characterization that the report is generally negative, with only a few, small bright spots.

Andrei Vyshinsky's picture

"No offense and don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending the government’s data."

Yeah, I noticed.

nedwardkelly's picture

It’s just the 95% of the posts in this (and other) threads see government conspiracies, lies, manipulation everywhere.

 

I don't believe many of the more far fetched 'conspiracies' - If a president can't keep a BJ from an intern a secret, how the F do they keep some of the apparent conspiracies secret?

But the more basic ones? The ones that involve subtle as a brick manipulation and lies? Hell yes.

bobby02's picture

Agreed. Just wouldn't call them conspiracies. The government's methodologies are described in very fine detail for anyone to examine. There's nothing hidden from view.

Anonymous's picture

Apparently you've never worked in any field that requires data analysis...

geminiRX's picture

Obviously he has never taken Vioxx. I mean heh, "it was thoroughly tested".

WaterWings's picture

Or that this isn't the first time a government convinced their citizens that inflation was good for them.

Cop: "These handcuffs are for your safety."

Hephasteus's picture

You think the conspiracies happen with the president involved? That's so cute!! I'm so glad JFK consipired to kill himself. LOL

Anonymous's picture

the data, accurate or not, clearly shows gains.

what gains? how is -20000 a gain. what month has
shown an employment gain? employment and unemployment
are asymmetrical data sets....an improvement in
the rate of change is not an improvement in the
area under the curve which is still deteriorating....

the non-seasonally adjusted data are the only
useable data since the sa data have biases built
into them...even the bls acklnowledges the need
to remove 800-900 jobs from the employment ledger...

Shameful's picture

Wow...are they even trying to hide the lies now?  So more lost jobs and more people seeking work and the unemployment number goes down...must be the "new math".  I'm waiting for them to declare U-3 to be 4.9%, just pluck the number out of the air.  After all we have seen the numbers completely bifurcate from anything resembling reality.

earnyermoney's picture

Well if the number of jobs lost is decreasing at a slower rate than the rate of people moving to the EUC category then the number could decrease, correct? Will the MSM report the EUC numbers or continue to shill for Obama?

digalert's picture

Will Ripley's believe it or not have a new category, UE reports?

plocequ1's picture

Unemployment is a big problem, But there a lot more tasty treats haunting this market. Smart investors will not fall for this number. The big problem lies in Europe and Asia. The USA has more things to worry about including this Bogus UE number.

Master Bates's picture

Don't worry.  The coming war will solve all of our unemployment problems!
What war?  Why, pick a country out of a hat and we'll attack it.  After all, we haven't found ALL the terrorists yet....

Eally Ucked's picture

You are right, are you enlisting? You would make an excellent corporal, just be careful with the fire arms and those terrorist waiting for you to be captured and properly punished! After all those trading success you had now it's time for some other achievements, on battlefield! Go for it man!!!!!!!!

Master Bates's picture

I'd rather get eaten by bears than join the army.

doggis's picture

is 9.7% a back of the napkin number, or does it come from the 9 chinese leaders that set GDP numbers? either way neither has its reporting root in anything real.

Master Bates's picture

No, .5% of people got discouraged and stopped looking for work!  CNBS told me so!

Gun those futures...Buy buy buy!!!  Mooooo!!!