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NFP -20,000, Consensus +15,000, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (U3 And U6) Surges To Record 10.6% And 18%

Tyler Durden's picture


The January NFP number came in at -20,000, a mere 5k away from Goldman's -25,000 estimate. Consensus was for +15,000. December, as all prior months, saw an expected major downward revision to -150,000 from -85,000. The January Birth/Death adjustment was for -427K from +25K in December. Despite a deterioration in every metric, the unemployment rate dropped from 10.% to 9.7%, even with a consensus at 10.0%. A glitch in the excel model is further corroborated when one considers that the civilian labor force participation rate actually rose in January from 64.6 to 64.7.

Yet a number that avoids some of the constant fudging by the BLS, the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number, hit a new recent record: instead of 9.7%, this number was 10.6%, a 0.9% increase from December!

The same can be seen in the U-6 data. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%, even as the seasonally adjusted number declined to 16.5%.

SA U-6:

And here is the Non Seasonally Adjusted U-6:

Below is the full text of the BLS Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situtation:

     Employment in temporary help services grew by 52,000 over the month.  This industry, which provides workers to other businesses, has added nearly a quarter of a million jobs since its recent low point last September.  Following 2 months of little change, retail trade employment increased by 42,000 in January, with gains in several components.  Health care employment continued to rise in January.  Overall, manufacturing employment was little changed, although motor vehicles and parts added 23,000 jobs.  Since June, the manufacturing workweek for all employees has increased by 1.2 hours.
     Federal government employment rose in January, partly due to hiring for the decennial census.  Employment in state and local governments, excluding education, continued to trend down over the month.
     Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private sector rose by 4 cents in January to $22.45.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent.  From December 2008 to December 2009, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 2.8 percent.
     Turning now to some measures from our household survey, both the number of unemployed persons (14.8 million) and the unemployment rate (9.7 percent) declined in January.  However, the share of those jobless for 27 weeks and over continued to rise.
     The employment-population ratio increased to 58.4 percent over the month.  The number of persons working part time who would have preferred full-time employment dropped from 9.2 to 8.3 million, the lowest level in a year.
     Before closing, I would note that several changes were introduced today to the Employment Situation news release text and tables.  Three new household survey tables provide information on the employment status of veterans, persons with a disability, and the foreign-born population. 

In January, the unemployment rate of veterans from Gulf War era II (September 2001 to the present) was 12.6 percent, compared with 10.4 percent for nonveterans.  Persons with a disability had a higher jobless rate than persons with no disability--15.2 versus 10.4 percent. In addition, 21.8 percent of persons with a disability were in the labor force, compared with 70.1 percent of persons without a disability.  The unemployment rate for the foreign born was 11.8 percent, and the rate
for the native born was 10.3 percent.  (The data in these new tables are not seasonally adjusted.)
     The establishment survey tables have been redesigned to include the addition of data on hours and earnings for all private-sector employees as well as employment information for women.  Women currently make up 49.9 percent of total nonfarm payroll employment, compared with 48.8 percent when the recession began in December 2007.  Additional information about the new and redesigned tables is available on the BLS Web site.
     I would also note that there were annual adjustments to data from our two surveys.  The establishment survey data released today reflect the incorporation of annual benchmark revisions. Each year, we re-anchor our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts of employment, primarily derived from administrative records of the unemployment insurance tax system. Accounting for revisions during the benchmark and post-benchmark periods, the previously published level of total nonfarm
employment for December 2009 was revised downward by 1,363,000. Household survey data for January reflect updated population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.  Further information about the impact of these adjustments is contained in our news release and on our Web site.

     Returning now to the labor market data we released this morning, the jobless rate declined to 9.7 percent in January, and payroll employment was essentially unchanged.
     My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions.


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Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:12 | 218783 E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

Cramer was right! Buy! Buy! Buy!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:13 | 218786 Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

Ain't no hope with out that MOPE

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:16 | 218791 Stuart
Stuart's picture

These figures are becoming less and less meaningful in every release.  They are much more a political tool for the puppet masters to roll out than they are a true economic indicator.  

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:36 | 219007 Andrei Vyshinsky
Andrei Vyshinsky's picture

Yes, and particularly now when the "recovery" worm appears to have turned. What to do now when the market is beginning to tank again and a second dip at some point later this year seems all but assured. Like undertakers, these maggots will do just anything to put some rouge on the pallor.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:55 | 219044 gold_tracker
gold_tracker's picture

Yeah. It's pretty much looking like that to me as well. In fact I am not so sure that they aren't using these reports to keep everyone on the street confused.

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 22:20 | 221673 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

watch the weekly numbers
480,000 and going up ,waiting for the break over 500,000

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:15 | 218792 MongNutter
MongNutter's picture

so.... Is this a blatant lie / act of deception or just more purposeful obfuscation?  Is the non-seasonally adjusted # plucked out of thin air?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:16 | 218794 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

SS, DD.  I suppose the markets will go up at first, and then later in the AM traders will remember what's going on in the real (read, "Non-Seasonally Adjusted") world, and then things will drop off sharply, and we'll get the 2:30 PM ramp job going into the weekend.  Oh, on declining volume.

Close enough?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:24 | 218826 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Very nicely put: relaxed, and matter-of-fact.  

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | 218838 docj
docj's picture

Looks like the drop-off is already happening.  The DXY, which actually broke just over 80.40 overnight, dropped like a stone from 80.21 to 80.02 on the news.  It's now back up to 80.25 and climbing.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:16 | 218795 ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

nice futures reversal on voodoo stat release

i want to ride THAT one daddy! weeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!

wonder how much steam this will have going into today's session. the bear market rally seems like it is gasping for air

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:21 | 218816 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I wonder how many 50 and 60-somethings put in sell orders last night

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:49 | 218891 ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

speaking for myself, i ditched my last long this morning. i feel so relieved. this thing is going down the crapper


mom & pop are going to stand by like they always do until they see 20% losses then they'll call their broker and say "hey, brian williams didn't make it seem THIS bad." basically i know it's time to start buying about a week after my dad says he's going to sell. and vice versa. that is my best indicator

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:27 | 218994 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Yo, Teriyaki, that's some funny sheiße. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:17 | 218796 suteibu
suteibu's picture

SO, I guess this means we don't need the big new program now.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:38 | 219109 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Apple will release the new 'iBrator' soon - tech will go through the roof again...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:17 | 218797 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

Not sure how to take the Temp agency rise... Hiring temp workers is more expensive long term, more cost effective short term. There's work that needs to be done, but apparently businesses are willing to pay more short term to avoid a longer term commitment. That's confidence!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | 218841 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Meme is that temp is a leading indicator hence the hgihlight in the BLS report. The number itself is immaterial, it is the transmission mechanism to fit the narrative. On the other hand good thing for the +42 retail blowout. Of course wouldn't know it from th store closing or revpar or rest traffic indicators.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:59 | 219053 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

Meme is that temp is a leading indicator hence the hgihlight in the BLS report.


Right... I guess I shouldn't have been thinking "what does this particular number mean" I should have been thinking "what is their motivation for including this particular number in the report"

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:43 | 218874 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

9,000 of the temp workers are for the census.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:55 | 218907 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The Administration is working on a perpetual hiring loop where they are going to create an entire division of people whose job it is to count the census workers. There will be then be a third group created to count those people, and so on and so forth.

All of these people will be required to become public employee union members.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:20 | 218806 slovester
slovester's picture

I wonder how many people are employed by the Feds who sole job function is to calculate just how large of a lie the government can make out of reported numbers and still have the majority of the idiot citizenry believe them.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:21 | 218812 suteibu
suteibu's picture

They don't call it the "Headline" number for nothing.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:22 | 218817 deadhead
deadhead's picture

there is some discrepancy in hrs did increase by .1% but some reports have it going from prior of 33.2 to 33.2 (reuters) and b'berg shows 33.8 to 33.9.  i reviewed quickly and they showed an increase of .1% to 33.9.  perhaps something to do with the modeling changes they made?

all i know is that modeling changes were made for this month and we now have a bls reporting mechanism that jumped the shark a long time ago and has been a  clusterfuck that has turned into an even larger clusterfuck.  whether you are a bull or a bear, you just got to laugh at the inanity of these gov't numbers.....


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:34 | 218849 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

The new model:

Pick a number you are comfortable with, say 9.7%, then massage the "data" until you get there.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:08 | 218942 SDRII
SDRII's picture

in other words, investment banking. Makes sense

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:54 | 219041 Rainman
Rainman's picture

....or filling out that good ol' 1040.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:09 | 219164 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Hey - this is how I got through chemistry

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:22 | 218819 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

a little background music while viewing the charts. remember... one pill makes you smaller...


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | 218820 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Makes perfect sense even a six year can not see through.

Job losses every month, every month, every month, yet, unemployment rate improves.

Nice to see every MSM outlet talking up the improved unemployment rate

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:38 | 218863 bobby02
bobby02's picture

"I think that the headline payrolls number uses the establishment survery while unemployment is based on the household data. If you actually go get the data, you will see that the establishment survery shows job gains of 541k, not the losses in the household data."

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:06 | 218936 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Yes, 52,000 temp jobs added in January including 9,000 temp census workers in January. Big "F"ing deal.

It is pretty hard to augue that these temp jobs are hired in a prelude to full time employment when hours worked are less than 34 week.

U6 is at 18%. Working part time (w/ no health benefits) for low wages is not a job which will add to the economy.

The survey size of the household date is about 1/8th the size of the BLS data and not reliable at if the BLS data is reliable!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:44 | 219024 bobby02
bobby02's picture

No offense and don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending the government’s data. It’s just the 95% of the posts in this (and other) threads see government conspiracies, lies, manipulation everywhere. It may be so, but before make such a strong accusation, I think it wise to at least look at the original data, something that clearly very, very few actually do. For all the criticism of CNBC, it seems to be the principal news source of many.

Your post is predicated on a false statement, namely “Job losses every month . . . yet unemployment rate improves” when the data, accurate or not, clearly shows gains.

Both surveys have their pluses and minuses and neither is perfect. Still, is nice to have some measure of unemployment. (All the alternatives I have seen, liking counting want ads, don’t seem better.) That the methodology behind these indexes is flawed, producing bizarre results, is not proof of any conspiracy, but rather indicative of the shortcoming of modeling, sampling and economics. (In some cases there is political pressure to generate desired numbers, like with the CPI, but that concerns the methodology, not massaging of the sequential data.)

I agree with your characterization that the report is generally negative, with only a few, small bright spots.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:58 | 219050 Andrei Vyshinsky
Andrei Vyshinsky's picture

"No offense and don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending the government’s data."

Yeah, I noticed.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:03 | 219061 nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

It’s just the 95% of the posts in this (and other) threads see government conspiracies, lies, manipulation everywhere.


I don't believe many of the more far fetched 'conspiracies' - If a president can't keep a BJ from an intern a secret, how the F do they keep some of the apparent conspiracies secret?

But the more basic ones? The ones that involve subtle as a brick manipulation and lies? Hell yes.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:30 | 219093 bobby02
bobby02's picture

Agreed. Just wouldn't call them conspiracies. The government's methodologies are described in very fine detail for anyone to examine. There's nothing hidden from view.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:03 | 219151 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Apparently you've never worked in any field that requires data analysis...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:34 | 219215 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Obviously he has never taken Vioxx. I mean heh, "it was thoroughly tested".

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:39 | 219218 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Or that this isn't the first time a government convinced their citizens that inflation was good for them.

Cop: "These handcuffs are for your safety."

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:15 | 219175 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You think the conspiracies happen with the president involved? That's so cute!! I'm so glad JFK consipired to kill himself. LOL

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:45 | 219121 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

the data, accurate or not, clearly shows gains.

what gains? how is -20000 a gain. what month has
shown an employment gain? employment and unemployment
are asymmetrical data improvement in
the rate of change is not an improvement in the
area under the curve which is still deteriorating....

the non-seasonally adjusted data are the only
useable data since the sa data have biases built
into them...even the bls acklnowledges the need
to remove 800-900 jobs from the employment ledger...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:23 | 218821 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Wow...are they even trying to hide the lies now?  So more lost jobs and more people seeking work and the unemployment number goes down...must be the "new math".  I'm waiting for them to declare U-3 to be 4.9%, just pluck the number out of the air.  After all we have seen the numbers completely bifurcate from anything resembling reality.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:56 | 218908 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Well if the number of jobs lost is decreasing at a slower rate than the rate of people moving to the EUC category then the number could decrease, correct? Will the MSM report the EUC numbers or continue to shill for Obama?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:24 | 218824 digalert
digalert's picture

Will Ripley's believe it or not have a new category, UE reports?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | 218839 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Unemployment is a big problem, But there a lot more tasty treats haunting this market. Smart investors will not fall for this number. The big problem lies in Europe and Asia. The USA has more things to worry about including this Bogus UE number.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:51 | 218895 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Don't worry.  The coming war will solve all of our unemployment problems!
What war?  Why, pick a country out of a hat and we'll attack it.  After all, we haven't found ALL the terrorists yet....

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:55 | 219045 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

You are right, are you enlisting? You would make an excellent corporal, just be careful with the fire arms and those terrorist waiting for you to be captured and properly punished! After all those trading success you had now it's time for some other achievements, on battlefield! Go for it man!!!!!!!!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:49 | 219487 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'd rather get eaten by bears than join the army.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:32 | 218844 doggis
doggis's picture

is 9.7% a back of the napkin number, or does it come from the 9 chinese leaders that set GDP numbers? either way neither has its reporting root in anything real.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:49 | 218890 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

No, .5% of people got discouraged and stopped looking for work!  CNBS told me so!

Gun those futures...Buy buy buy!!!  Mooooo!!!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:32 | 218846 Shocker
Shocker's picture

American People are resilient hehehe, we can handle alot of lies and still function

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:36 | 218857 Cookie
Cookie's picture

Its the Asian century guys, wake up, its over.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:42 | 218871 suteibu
suteibu's picture

I'm beginning to think that myself.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:50 | 218893 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

There's a reason I'm studying Chinese...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:30 | 218998 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Eh, you're better off mastering Español in 1/8th the time and buying a sniper rifle and tent instead.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:58 | 219052 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I disagree on all accounts.
1) Mandarin is easier/faster to learn to speak than Spanish.
2) Get a battle rifle, or CQB carbine, rather than a sniper rifle.
3) Learn to make and repair tents, like St. Paul, rather than buy one.


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:58 | 219228 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

1) Easier/faster? If you don't plan on being literate you might be right - make sure you don't fuck up the tones. Horse and mother sound almost the same. Caballo and madre: that's easy.

2) CQB? Are you crazy? Tell that to this guy:

Carbines are for mall ninjas. But if you are referring to a shortened M1A then I could not agree more. I would own one of those before Au, any day.

3) Fortunately North Face and Marmot make tents so I don't have to freeze to death in North America where I can't get by wearing sandals year-round, begging for unleavened bread.


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:25 | 219285 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Why do you guys argue re #2? Sell your wife's engagement ring and buy both!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 16:04 | 219519 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Or just acquire the M1A so you don't have to switch back and forth.

It's cubic zirconia. If she ever committed the act of going to get it appraised I'd want a divorce anyway. The final bitch-slap. Don't consider me mean, I'm just jaded from watching my parents cycle through "loved ones".

Okay, I'm not married. You probably couldn't tell.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 23:32 | 218903 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Unfortunately I don't think anyone is going to win in this situation. Some will fair better but overall we got some serious problems. And get bogus numbers doesn't help the problem at all.

shadowstat should have some numbers up shortly


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:57 | 218912 ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

i used to think that. but i'm finding it harder and harder to believe. obviously it's been said a million times, but a command economy will only take them so far. china has major demographic problems on the horizon. electronics assembly is not the way to great prosperity. people want to bitch about trade deficits and are astonished by asian reserves, but what is china going to do with all that cash besides create a monster-bubble the likes of which their current one would pale in comparison. it will all end very badly. the fact is that as a society willing to integrate outsiders--and hopefully we'll expand our visas to ensure this remains the case--and our relatively open society will always perform better than a country full of people taught to think the same way


i have a trade deficit with safeway but i could care less if they buy anything from me

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:01 | 218922 suteibu
suteibu's picture

I would agree with you except for the consumer market in India exploding.  This is good for Japan and China.  It gives the Chinese more time to build their consumer market.  There seems to be a growing Asian vs. the Western world feeling building there, as well.  Smart for them as they see the decline in Western consumerism.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:20 | 218972 Shocker
Shocker's picture

I agree with ya for the most part. To be honest I really don't know how its going to play out. I would just like some hard numbers, and say ok this is what we got to do. If we keep getting jumbled crap, you can never get a game plan. But again fixing this problem is not their objective.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:38 | 218864 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Thank you, Mr. President, for putting us back on track!

Your policies, while mocked and ridiculed, have worked their magic. Maybe the naysayers were naysayers for political reasons? Nawwwwww, could not be.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:40 | 218866 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The people that made up these numbers would like to comment here, unfortunately they can't answer the math question. They think they need to make up a number.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:44 | 218877 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

The less ya bet, the more you lose, when you win?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:44 | 218879 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Didn't see a track-back button, but great job guys!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:45 | 218881 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Mish has a rather prescient post on this.  Love him or hate him or just think he's OK, he got this one right.  A couple really funny lines about the Birth/Death Model.  Like, "The BLS is stuck and does not know how to fix its model."  If you have the right sense of humor, that's pretty funny.  Have a look if you want.


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:51 | 219491 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'm a big Mish fan.  I read him every day.  Some of his stories are a little boring and long winded, but he's still one of my "must reads".

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:48 | 218886 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

The funny thing is that they got to the 9.7% (according to CNBC) because of people that have stopped looking for work!  What a positive development!  Of course, the fact that .5% of America is so discouraged that they stopped looking for work is extremely bullish.
I'd put the rally caps on today.  I see Dow 15000 by the end of next week...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:49 | 218888 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Of course, if everybody quit looking for work, we wouldn't have any unemployment at all!  Happy Days!  We could say they're all self-employed now.  If I don't get any work, being self-employed, it's like a tree falling in the forest.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:56 | 218910 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'm self employed too!  I'm a government check collector.  I used to have a great job and be productive in the economy, but now I just sit around and collect government checks all day and make GOBS of money!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:03 | 218927 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Awesome.  I used to collect baseball cards.  Never made any money at it though.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:18 | 218966 ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

speaking of baseball cards, and interjecting into your conversation with master "black swan", on the topic of black swans and baseball cards...


when i was young i was a HUGE bo jackson fan. had every single card they ever made, baseball and football. even now i believe that were it not for those hip replacements, he would have been the greatest running back of all time. the fundamentals were all lined up. many years later, in high school, i needed some money and called the local card shop. i told him i had every bo jackson card, ever, and they were in mint condition. the guy laughed at me, i had to hang up on him. the collection was a sure bet, were it not for those hip replacements. i've kind of felt that way about some of the stocks i dumped in the past couple of weeks. so there seems to be a lesson in there relevant to the markets. just wanted to share this little story.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:25 | 218985 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I have every baseball and football card collection from 1986-1994, for about half of the producers.  My parents would get me the "complete sets" for Christmas every year.

I have no idea what they're worth, but maybe I could get a few bucks for them someday!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:37 | 219010 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Ya better hurry before they turn into cooks. Or this shithouse could go up in flames first, as Jim Morrison once opined. You can't eat baseball cards. Well, I guess you can.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:53 | 219494 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

*you can't eat GOLD, either.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:14 | 219173 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Wow.  I was being a smart-ass.  I had no idea what I was starting.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:25 | 218986 Shocker
Shocker's picture

That right there is the problem. Not a personal attack on you, but unproductive jobs that pay crazy money. That job right there should pay $6.00 a hour.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:48 | 218887 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The reason for the drop in the household rate to 9.7% is that the estimate of the total population in the US was increased in January. If they had kept the same population data they used in December the household rate would have been 10.6%. There was no growth in jobs.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:52 | 219133 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

good point...ratios can increase from increasing
numerator or decreasing denominator...

but my understanding is that the denominator
is the workforce pool rather than population....if
the two numbers are directly related such as one
being derived from the other then i agree with
your point.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:51 | 218896 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

In my younger days I remember how US officials used to disparage the Soviets for massaging their numbers to reflect desired outcomes.........

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:52 | 218897 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

With this kind of "Obamath" by August unemployment will be +7%.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:08 | 219163 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

OBAMATH!!! Hhahahahahahahaha!!!!! Did you come up with that yourself???? That made me laugh so much!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:52 | 218900 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What's the math on this again?

How does losing another 20k non-farm jobs drive the unemployment rate down from 10% to 9.7% ?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:02 | 219060 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Household survey data for January reflect updated population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau."

Population increase(counting Chicago voters instead of tax payers).


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:56 | 218909 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I don't think anyone believes the BLS report anymore. The U3 in particular has been ruin by policitical pressure over the years and it really says nothing about the state of unemployment, U6 is better but still lacking.

The most important metric is the aggregate total of those without jobs, and any meaningful number will include those who have fallen off the back without finding work, because if you don't count them then why even bother.

garbage in / garbage out

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:00 | 218918 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Wow, sometime between now and when I was running my mouth before the Dow took a big old shiznit.  Dow 10000 baby!!  WOOOO!!!

Do I get a prize every time it crosses 10000?  Maybe some food stamps?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:09 | 218946 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Hey, pal, don't bogart the food stamps.  Dow >10k in the hizzizzle.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:26 | 218992 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'll sell the food stamps at a discount for some crack money!

Dow 10000 in the rear view, and this train ain't stopping for some time!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:26 | 218989 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Green Stamps. Save up enough you can buy the shack house out fo the freddie fannie portion of the catalog. Or the new car from the GM portion.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:28 | 218996 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Hey, I can buy a house in the ghetto in Detroit for 500 bucks now!  My family might get killed and people used to make meth there... but still... 500 BUCKS!!!

Who says that this economy doesn't have its bright spots?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:50 | 219033 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

We'll just have new types of colonists. They'll go into these neighborhoods install bullet resistant siding and start putting every drug house customer and proprietor out of business. It'll be like neighborhood watches without whistles or bothersome calls to the police.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:27 | 218993 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How's the EUC number?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:31 | 219000 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The unemployment rate fell and is turning significantly 10.1%
peak in October 2009. A quick decline is not expected, but
the turn is encouraging. The non-seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate is 10.6%, but do not confuse the issue.
Seasonal adjustments are used for a reason and in other
months seasonal adjustments have added substantially to
the unemployment rate.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:36 | 219008 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It would be nice if Washington was honest and accept the facts for what they really are and not sugar coat it. Until honesty comes back to Washington and the lies are stopped nothing will change. If they accept the facts and confront the problem head on this mess will start to get better. I'm so tired of the BS from Republicans and Democracts I could puke. Here's a new idea how about a group of honest Americans starting a new party " the American Party". The Tea party is a start and that's good but it's still to close to the Republican side. Untill there are more than two partys in Washington the good for all Americans won't be first and formost. Unfortunatly they will lie and prolong the recovery while more money is wasted. I love this country but I think China and all the other countries who hold our debt are going to get tired of being paid back with another "visa card" and come looking for it. At that point when things are at a point of civil unrest we will need new leadership and if Washington doesn't recognize it, then we "Americans" must revolt and take controll and start over. Unfortunatly at that point a lot of people will die and get hurt. If you think that can't happen in the United States you must work for the government because every great empire crumbles and I think it's getting close to our turn. let's Smarten up before it to late. God bless America first and then the rest.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:39 | 219018 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"...establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors."

-- The total nonfarm employment level for March 2009 was revised downward by 902,000 (930,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis), or 0.7 percent. The previously published level for December 2009 was revised downward 1,390,000
(1,363,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis). (See Table A.)

"Also, household survey data for January 2010 reflect updated population estimates. ...the new population estimates had a negligible impact on unemployment rates and other percentage estimates. Data users are cautioned that these annual population adjustments affect the comparability of household data series over time."

-- It had negligible impact on "unadjusted" data. It had a huge impact on adjusted data. The take-away: the lack of pre-holiday hiring, means January layoffs are "better than expected."

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:45 | 219027 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

Not a good report and I think the economy continues to just "drift" down due to the fact that all this worldwide stimulus is beginning to peter out.  It's like a balloon filled with helium.  It slowly floats down unless it's re-filled with more helium.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:51 | 219035 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

BLS is BS. If I did math like the BLS I would have more money in my bank account.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:08 | 219074 JacksWastedLife
JacksWastedLife's picture

so, it's time for 'unexpected' market crash, in early march I suppose. =)


Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:17 | 219080 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

By virtue of how the number is calculated, doesn't that mean the it is in the administrations best interest to stretch out the pain of a recession (ie.. more bailouts) so that more "discouraged job seekers" get taken out of the count and decrease the published number?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:16 | 219179 BaronG
BaronG's picture

Just on it when you look back in the past.


Pelosi criticizing Bush on lost jobs...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:27 | 219291 Don Mattingly
Don Mattingly's picture

I'm extremely concerned  for the average investor. How many other media outlets are mentioning the non seasonally adjusted numbers? I can count them on one hand.....and I'm missing 3 fingers. Almost a full percentage point diff in the U3 number...Utterly amazing the dung these people throw at the wall and how much of it people let stick.




Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:53 | 219348 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

Can anyone explain to me it's even possible that:

- We lost 20,000 jobs this month
- We lost 60,000 more jobs last month then previously thought
- We lost 900,000 more jobs in the March benchmark revision
- The labor force increased by 110,000

and still drop the UE rate 0.3%??

I completely fail to see how this is possible. A simple explanation, if anyone has one.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:31 | 219433 Don Mattingly
Don Mattingly's picture

UE comes from Household data. Some of the numbers you refer to come from the Establishment data. Two different sets of numbers. Take a look at the number of people Employed and unemployed in the Household data. This is where you can find an uptick in number of people employed and the opposite for unemployed. Can be found on the BLS website. 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:33 | 219436 Tom North
Tom North's picture

A couple of links in honor of Employment Friday.

The *ALL NEW* BLS Adjustment Model:


When workers leave the workforce, where do they go? Some disturbing possibilities:



Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:45 | 219849 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Why are Americans Communist?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:54 | 220068 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

OK, I'll bite; I don't know.


Mon, 02/08/2010 - 02:22 | 221879 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Temporary employment is 2nd tier employment -- NO benefits, no health insurance, no sick time or other days off. Anyone who worked as a temp knows this

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Emilyshela's picture

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Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:16 | 1161045 virtual_office
virtual_office's picture

The graps really shows how the economy sinks..the government need to adjust and find ways to solved this problem.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 14:36 | 1178218 Mugen
Mugen's picture

Don't you understand that everything is controlled by few poeople. Money, funding, employment, everything. It is no use for arguing here about that.


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