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NFP -20,000, Consensus +15,000, Non-Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (U3 And U6) Surges To Record 10.6% And 18%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The January NFP number came in at -20,000, a mere 5k away from Goldman's -25,000 estimate. Consensus was for +15,000. December, as all prior months, saw an expected major downward revision to -150,000 from -85,000. The January Birth/Death adjustment was for -427K from +25K in December. Despite a deterioration in every metric, the unemployment rate dropped from 10.% to 9.7%, even with a consensus at 10.0%. A glitch in the excel model is further corroborated when one considers that the civilian labor force participation rate actually rose in January from 64.6 to 64.7.

Yet a number that avoids some of the constant fudging by the BLS, the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number, hit a new recent record: instead of 9.7%, this number was 10.6%, a 0.9% increase from December!

The same can be seen in the U-6 data. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%, even as the seasonally adjusted number declined to 16.5%.

SA U-6:

And here is the Non Seasonally Adjusted U-6:

Below is the full text of the BLS Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situtation:

     Employment in temporary help services grew by 52,000 over the month.  This industry, which provides workers to other businesses, has added nearly a quarter of a million jobs since its recent low point last September.  Following 2 months of little change, retail trade employment increased by 42,000 in January, with gains in several components.  Health care employment continued to rise in January.  Overall, manufacturing employment was little changed, although motor vehicles and parts added 23,000 jobs.  Since June, the manufacturing workweek for all employees has increased by 1.2 hours.
    
     Federal government employment rose in January, partly due to hiring for the decennial census.  Employment in state and local governments, excluding education, continued to trend down over the month.
    
     Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private sector rose by 4 cents in January to $22.45.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent.  From December 2008 to December 2009, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 2.8 percent.
    
     Turning now to some measures from our household survey, both the number of unemployed persons (14.8 million) and the unemployment rate (9.7 percent) declined in January.  However, the share of those jobless for 27 weeks and over continued to rise.
    
     The employment-population ratio increased to 58.4 percent over the month.  The number of persons working part time who would have preferred full-time employment dropped from 9.2 to 8.3 million, the lowest level in a year.
    
     Before closing, I would note that several changes were introduced today to the Employment Situation news release text and tables.  Three new household survey tables provide information on the employment status of veterans, persons with a disability, and the foreign-born population. 

In January, the unemployment rate of veterans from Gulf War era II (September 2001 to the present) was 12.6 percent, compared with 10.4 percent for nonveterans.  Persons with a disability had a higher jobless rate than persons with no disability--15.2 versus 10.4 percent. In addition, 21.8 percent of persons with a disability were in the labor force, compared with 70.1 percent of persons without a disability.  The unemployment rate for the foreign born was 11.8 percent, and the rate
for the native born was 10.3 percent.  (The data in these new tables are not seasonally adjusted.)
    
     The establishment survey tables have been redesigned to include the addition of data on hours and earnings for all private-sector employees as well as employment information for women.  Women currently make up 49.9 percent of total nonfarm payroll employment, compared with 48.8 percent when the recession began in December 2007.  Additional information about the new and redesigned tables is available on the BLS Web site.
    
     I would also note that there were annual adjustments to data from our two surveys.  The establishment survey data released today reflect the incorporation of annual benchmark revisions. Each year, we re-anchor our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts of employment, primarily derived from administrative records of the unemployment insurance tax system. Accounting for revisions during the benchmark and post-benchmark periods, the previously published level of total nonfarm
employment for December 2009 was revised downward by 1,363,000. Household survey data for January reflect updated population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.  Further information about the impact of these adjustments is contained in our news release and on our Web site.

   
     Returning now to the labor market data we released this morning, the jobless rate declined to 9.7 percent in January, and payroll employment was essentially unchanged.
    
     My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions.

 


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Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:12 | Link to Comment E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

Cramer was right! Buy! Buy! Buy!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

Ain't no hope with out that MOPE

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Stuart
Stuart's picture

These figures are becoming less and less meaningful in every release.  They are much more a political tool for the puppet masters to roll out than they are a true economic indicator.  

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Andrei Vyshinsky
Andrei Vyshinsky's picture

Yes, and particularly now when the "recovery" worm appears to have turned. What to do now when the market is beginning to tank again and a second dip at some point later this year seems all but assured. Like undertakers, these maggots will do just anything to put some rouge on the pallor.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:55 | Link to Comment gold_tracker
gold_tracker's picture

Yeah. It's pretty much looking like that to me as well. In fact I am not so sure that they aren't using these reports to keep everyone on the street confused.

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:15 | Link to Comment MongNutter
MongNutter's picture

so.... Is this a blatant lie / act of deception or just more purposeful obfuscation?  Is the non-seasonally adjusted # plucked out of thin air?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:16 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

SS, DD.  I suppose the markets will go up at first, and then later in the AM traders will remember what's going on in the real (read, "Non-Seasonally Adjusted") world, and then things will drop off sharply, and we'll get the 2:30 PM ramp job going into the weekend.  Oh, on declining volume.

Close enough?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Very nicely put: relaxed, and matter-of-fact.  

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Looks like the drop-off is already happening.  The DXY, which actually broke just over 80.40 overnight, dropped like a stone from 80.21 to 80.02 on the news.  It's now back up to 80.25 and climbing.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:16 | Link to Comment ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

nice futures reversal on voodoo stat release

i want to ride THAT one daddy! weeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!

wonder how much steam this will have going into today's session. the bear market rally seems like it is gasping for air

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:21 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I wonder how many 50 and 60-somethings put in sell orders last night

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:49 | Link to Comment ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

speaking for myself, i ditched my last long this morning. i feel so relieved. this thing is going down the crapper

 

mom & pop are going to stand by like they always do until they see 20% losses then they'll call their broker and say "hey, brian williams didn't make it seem THIS bad." basically i know it's time to start buying about a week after my dad says he's going to sell. and vice versa. that is my best indicator

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:27 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Yo, Teriyaki, that's some funny sheiße. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:17 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

SO, I guess this means we don't need the big new stimilus....er....jobs program now.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:17 | Link to Comment nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

Not sure how to take the Temp agency rise... Hiring temp workers is more expensive long term, more cost effective short term. There's work that needs to be done, but apparently businesses are willing to pay more short term to avoid a longer term commitment. That's confidence!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

Meme is that temp is a leading indicator hence the hgihlight in the BLS report. The number itself is immaterial, it is the transmission mechanism to fit the narrative. On the other hand good thing for the +42 retail blowout. Of course wouldn't know it from th store closing or revpar or rest traffic indicators.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:59 | Link to Comment nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

Meme is that temp is a leading indicator hence the hgihlight in the BLS report.

 

Right... I guess I shouldn't have been thinking "what does this particular number mean" I should have been thinking "what is their motivation for including this particular number in the report"

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:43 | Link to Comment KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

9,000 of the temp workers are for the census.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:20 | Link to Comment slovester
slovester's picture

I wonder how many people are employed by the Feds who sole job function is to calculate just how large of a lie the government can make out of reported numbers and still have the majority of the idiot citizenry believe them.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:21 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

They don't call it the "Headline" number for nothing.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:22 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

there is some discrepancy in hrs worked....it did increase by .1% but some reports have it going from prior of 33.2 to 33.2 (reuters) and b'berg shows 33.8 to 33.9.  i reviewed bls.gov quickly and they showed an increase of .1% to 33.9.  perhaps something to do with the modeling changes they made?

all i know is that modeling changes were made for this month and we now have a bls reporting mechanism that jumped the shark a long time ago and has been a  clusterfuck that has turned into an even larger clusterfuck.  whether you are a bull or a bear, you just got to laugh at the inanity of these gov't numbers.....

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

The new model:

Pick a number you are comfortable with, say 9.7%, then massage the "data" until you get there.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:08 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

in other words, investment banking. Makes sense

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

....or filling out that good ol' 1040.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:09 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Hey - this is how I got through chemistry

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

a little background music while viewing the charts. remember... one pill makes you smaller...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HmJQyS8QVw

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | Link to Comment chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Makes perfect sense even a six year can not see through.

Job losses every month, every month, every month, yet, unemployment rate improves.

Nice to see every MSM outlet talking up the improved unemployment rate

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:38 | Link to Comment bobby02
bobby02's picture

"I think that the headline payrolls number uses the establishment survery while unemployment is based on the household data. If you actually go get the data, you will see that the establishment survery shows job gains of 541k, not the losses in the household data."

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:06 | Link to Comment chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Yes, 52,000 temp jobs added in January including 9,000 temp census workers in January. Big "F"ing deal.

It is pretty hard to augue that these temp jobs are hired in a prelude to full time employment when hours worked are less than 34 week.

U6 is at 18%. Working part time (w/ no health benefits) for low wages is not a job which will add to the economy.

The survey size of the household date is about 1/8th the size of the BLS data and not reliable at all......as if the BLS data is reliable!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:44 | Link to Comment bobby02
bobby02's picture

No offense and don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending the government’s data. It’s just the 95% of the posts in this (and other) threads see government conspiracies, lies, manipulation everywhere. It may be so, but before make such a strong accusation, I think it wise to at least look at the original data, something that clearly very, very few actually do. For all the criticism of CNBC, it seems to be the principal news source of many.

Your post is predicated on a false statement, namely “Job losses every month . . . yet unemployment rate improves” when the data, accurate or not, clearly shows gains.

Both surveys have their pluses and minuses and neither is perfect. Still, is nice to have some measure of unemployment. (All the alternatives I have seen, liking counting want ads, don’t seem better.) That the methodology behind these indexes is flawed, producing bizarre results, is not proof of any conspiracy, but rather indicative of the shortcoming of modeling, sampling and economics. (In some cases there is political pressure to generate desired numbers, like with the CPI, but that concerns the methodology, not massaging of the sequential data.)

I agree with your characterization that the report is generally negative, with only a few, small bright spots.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Andrei Vyshinsky
Andrei Vyshinsky's picture

"No offense and don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending the government’s data."

Yeah, I noticed.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

It’s just the 95% of the posts in this (and other) threads see government conspiracies, lies, manipulation everywhere.

 

I don't believe many of the more far fetched 'conspiracies' - If a president can't keep a BJ from an intern a secret, how the F do they keep some of the apparent conspiracies secret?

But the more basic ones? The ones that involve subtle as a brick manipulation and lies? Hell yes.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:30 | Link to Comment bobby02
bobby02's picture

Agreed. Just wouldn't call them conspiracies. The government's methodologies are described in very fine detail for anyone to examine. There's nothing hidden from view.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:34 | Link to Comment geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Obviously he has never taken Vioxx. I mean heh, "it was thoroughly tested".

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:39 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Or that this isn't the first time a government convinced their citizens that inflation was good for them.

Cop: "These handcuffs are for your safety."

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You think the conspiracies happen with the president involved? That's so cute!! I'm so glad JFK consipired to kill himself. LOL

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Wow...are they even trying to hide the lies now?  So more lost jobs and more people seeking work and the unemployment number goes down...must be the "new math".  I'm waiting for them to declare U-3 to be 4.9%, just pluck the number out of the air.  After all we have seen the numbers completely bifurcate from anything resembling reality.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:56 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Well if the number of jobs lost is decreasing at a slower rate than the rate of people moving to the EUC category then the number could decrease, correct? Will the MSM report the EUC numbers or continue to shill for Obama?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:24 | Link to Comment digalert
digalert's picture

Will Ripley's believe it or not have a new category, UE reports?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:30 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Unemployment is a big problem, But there a lot more tasty treats haunting this market. Smart investors will not fall for this number. The big problem lies in Europe and Asia. The USA has more things to worry about including this Bogus UE number.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Don't worry.  The coming war will solve all of our unemployment problems!
What war?  Why, pick a country out of a hat and we'll attack it.  After all, we haven't found ALL the terrorists yet....

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

You are right, are you enlisting? You would make an excellent corporal, just be careful with the fire arms and those terrorist waiting for you to be captured and properly punished! After all those trading success you had now it's time for some other achievements, on battlefield! Go for it man!!!!!!!!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'd rather get eaten by bears than join the army.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:32 | Link to Comment doggis
doggis's picture

is 9.7% a back of the napkin number, or does it come from the 9 chinese leaders that set GDP numbers? either way neither has its reporting root in anything real.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

No, .5% of people got discouraged and stopped looking for work!  CNBS told me so!

Gun those futures...Buy buy buy!!!  Mooooo!!!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

American People are resilient hehehe, we can handle alot of lies and still function

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Cookie
Cookie's picture

Its the Asian century guys, wake up, its over.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:42 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

I'm beginning to think that myself.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:30 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Eh, you're better off mastering Español in 1/8th the time and buying a sniper rifle and tent instead.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:58 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

1) Easier/faster? If you don't plan on being literate you might be right - make sure you don't fuck up the tones. Horse and mother sound almost the same. Caballo and madre: that's easy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4617646.stm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlfG2VV4GFM

2) CQB? Are you crazy? Tell that to this guy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simo_H%C3%A4yh%C3%A4

Carbines are for mall ninjas. But if you are referring to a shortened M1A then I could not agree more. I would own one of those before Au, any day.

3) Fortunately North Face and Marmot make tents so I don't have to freeze to death in North America where I can't get by wearing sandals year-round, begging for unleavened bread.

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 16:04 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Or just acquire the M1A so you don't have to switch back and forth.

It's cubic zirconia. If she ever committed the act of going to get it appraised I'd want a divorce anyway. The final bitch-slap. Don't consider me mean, I'm just jaded from watching my parents cycle through "loved ones".

Okay, I'm not married. You probably couldn't tell.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 23:32 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

Unfortunately I don't think anyone is going to win in this situation. Some will fair better but overall we got some serious problems. And get bogus numbers doesn't help the problem at all.

shadowstat should have some numbers up shortly

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:57 | Link to Comment ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

i used to think that. but i'm finding it harder and harder to believe. obviously it's been said a million times, but a command economy will only take them so far. china has major demographic problems on the horizon. electronics assembly is not the way to great prosperity. people want to bitch about trade deficits and are astonished by asian reserves, but what is china going to do with all that cash besides create a monster-bubble the likes of which their current one would pale in comparison. it will all end very badly. the fact is that as a society willing to integrate outsiders--and hopefully we'll expand our visas to ensure this remains the case--and our relatively open society will always perform better than a country full of people taught to think the same way

 

i have a trade deficit with safeway but i could care less if they buy anything from me

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:01 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

I would agree with you except for the consumer market in India exploding.  This is good for Japan and China.  It gives the Chinese more time to build their consumer market.  There seems to be a growing Asian vs. the Western world feeling building there, as well.  Smart for them as they see the decline in Western consumerism.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

I agree with ya for the most part. To be honest I really don't know how its going to play out. I would just like some hard numbers, and say ok this is what we got to do. If we keep getting jumbled crap, you can never get a game plan. But again fixing this problem is not their objective.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

The less ya bet, the more you lose, when you win?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:45 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Mish has a rather prescient post on this.  Love him or hate him or just think he's OK, he got this one right.  A couple really funny lines about the Birth/Death Model.  Like, "The BLS is stuck and does not know how to fix its model."  If you have the right sense of humor, that's pretty funny.  Have a look if you want.

http://tinyurl.com/ygnb4uk

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'm a big Mish fan.  I read him every day.  Some of his stories are a little boring and long winded, but he's still one of my "must reads".

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

The funny thing is that they got to the 9.7% (according to CNBC) because of people that have stopped looking for work!  What a positive development!  Of course, the fact that .5% of America is so discouraged that they stopped looking for work is extremely bullish.
I'd put the rally caps on today.  I see Dow 15000 by the end of next week...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:49 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Of course, if everybody quit looking for work, we wouldn't have any unemployment at all!  Happy Days!  We could say they're all self-employed now.  If I don't get any work, being self-employed, it's like a tree falling in the forest.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'm self employed too!  I'm a government check collector.  I used to have a great job and be productive in the economy, but now I just sit around and collect government checks all day and make GOBS of money!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:03 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Awesome.  I used to collect baseball cards.  Never made any money at it though.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:18 | Link to Comment ChickenTeriyakiBoy
ChickenTeriyakiBoy's picture

speaking of baseball cards, and interjecting into your conversation with master "black swan" bates...so, on the topic of black swans and baseball cards...

 

when i was young i was a HUGE bo jackson fan. had every single card they ever made, baseball and football. even now i believe that were it not for those hip replacements, he would have been the greatest running back of all time. the fundamentals were all lined up. many years later, in high school, i needed some money and called the local card shop. i told him i had every bo jackson card, ever, and they were in mint condition. the guy laughed at me, i had to hang up on him. the collection was a sure bet, were it not for those hip replacements. i've kind of felt that way about some of the stocks i dumped in the past couple of weeks. so there seems to be a lesson in there relevant to the markets. just wanted to share this little story.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I have every baseball and football card collection from 1986-1994, for about half of the producers.  My parents would get me the "complete sets" for Christmas every year.

I have no idea what they're worth, but maybe I could get a few bucks for them someday!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:37 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Ya better hurry before they turn into cooks. Or this shithouse could go up in flames first, as Jim Morrison once opined. You can't eat baseball cards. Well, I guess you can.

http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/si_online/covers/images/2003/0630_large.jpg

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

*you can't eat GOLD, either.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:14 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Wow.  I was being a smart-ass.  I had no idea what I was starting.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

That right there is the problem. Not a personal attack on you, but unproductive jobs that pay crazy money. That job right there should pay $6.00 a hour.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

OBAMATH!!! Hhahahahahahahaha!!!!! Did you come up with that yourself???? That made me laugh so much!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:56 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I don't think anyone believes the BLS report anymore. The U3 in particular has been ruin by policitical pressure over the years and it really says nothing about the state of unemployment, U6 is better but still lacking.

The most important metric is the aggregate total of those without jobs, and any meaningful number will include those who have fallen off the back without finding work, because if you don't count them then why even bother.

garbage in / garbage out

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Wow, sometime between now and when I was running my mouth before the Dow took a big old shiznit.  Dow 10000 baby!!  WOOOO!!!

Do I get a prize every time it crosses 10000?  Maybe some food stamps?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:09 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Hey, pal, don't bogart the food stamps.  Dow >10k in the hizzizzle.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I'll sell the food stamps at a discount for some crack money!

Dow 10000 in the rear view, and this train ain't stopping for some time!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Green Stamps. Save up enough you can buy the shack house out fo the freddie fannie portion of the catalog. Or the new car from the GM portion.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:28 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Hey, I can buy a house in the ghetto in Detroit for 500 bucks now!  My family might get killed and people used to make meth there... but still... 500 BUCKS!!!

Who says that this economy doesn't have its bright spots?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

We'll just have new types of colonists. They'll go into these neighborhoods install bullet resistant siding and start putting every drug house customer and proprietor out of business. It'll be like neighborhood watches without whistles or bothersome calls to the police.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:27 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

Not a good report and I think the economy continues to just "drift" down due to the fact that all this worldwide stimulus is beginning to peter out.  It's like a balloon filled with helium.  It slowly floats down unless it's re-filled with more helium.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:08 | Link to Comment JacksWastedLife
JacksWastedLife's picture

so, it's time for 'unexpected' market crash, in early march I suppose. =)

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 13:16 | Link to Comment BaronG
BaronG's picture

Just on Drudge...love it when you look back in the past.

 

Pelosi criticizing Bush on lost jobs...

http://www.house.gov/pelosi/press/releases/Aug03/prWherearetheJobs080103.html

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Don Mattingly
Don Mattingly's picture

I'm extremely concerned  for the average investor. How many other media outlets are mentioning the non seasonally adjusted numbers? I can count them on one hand.....and I'm missing 3 fingers. Almost a full percentage point diff in the U3 number...Utterly amazing the dung these people throw at the wall and how much of it people let stick.

 

 

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:53 | Link to Comment MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

Can anyone explain to me it's even possible that:

- We lost 20,000 jobs this month
- We lost 60,000 more jobs last month then previously thought
- We lost 900,000 more jobs in the March benchmark revision
- The labor force increased by 110,000

and still drop the UE rate 0.3%??

I completely fail to see how this is possible. A simple explanation, if anyone has one.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Don Mattingly
Don Mattingly's picture

UE comes from Household data. Some of the numbers you refer to come from the Establishment data. Two different sets of numbers. Take a look at the number of people Employed and unemployed in the Household data. This is where you can find an uptick in number of people employed and the opposite for unemployed. Can be found on the BLS website. 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:33 | Link to Comment Tom North
Tom North's picture

A couple of links in honor of Employment Friday.

The *ALL NEW* BLS Adjustment Model:

http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/post/271835487/bls-said-to-be-using-new-data-adjustment-model

and.....

When workers leave the workforce, where do they go? Some disturbing possibilities:

http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/post/281336116/u-s-workforce-disappearing-at-alarming-rate

*SATIRE*

Cheers!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:54 | Link to Comment swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

OK, I'll bite; I don't know.

Why?

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 02:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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Emilyshela's picture

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Tue, 04/12/2011 - 08:16 | Link to Comment virtual_office
virtual_office's picture

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Sun, 04/17/2011 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Mugen
Mugen's picture

Don't you understand that everything is controlled by few poeople. Money, funding, employment, everything. It is no use for arguing here about that.

 

Jerico at http://www.one.com/en/

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