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NFP +244,000, 9% Unemployment, Birth/Death Adjustment +175,000
And so much for all economic data indicating a drop. The BLS just reported the biggest monthly gain since February 2006. From the release: "Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 244,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several service-providing industries, manufacturing, and mining." And yet: Birth/Death adjustment +175,000.
From the establishment survey:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 244,000 in April, and the private sector added 268,000 jobs. Employment rose in a number of service-providing industries, manufacturing, and mining. Since a recent low in February 2010, total payroll employment has grown by 1.8 million. Privatesector employment has increased by 2.1 million over the same period.(See table B-1.)
In April, employment in retail trade rose by 57,000. Within the industry, employment in general merchandise stores increased by 27,000, offsetting a decline of similar magnitude in the prior month. Elsewhere in retail trade, April job gains occurred in electronics and appliance stores (+6,000), building material and garden supply stores (+6,000), and automobile dealers (+5,000).
Employment in professional and business services continued to expand in April, with an increase of 51,000. Job gains occurred in management andtechnical consulting services (+11,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+8,000). Employment in temporary help services was little changed over the month, following an increase of 34,000 in March.
Health care continued to add jobs in April (+37,000). Within health care, job gains continued in ambulatory health care (+22,000) and hospitals (+10,000).
Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to increase in April (+46,000). Over the past 3 months, this industry added 151,000 jobs, with nearly two-thirds of the growth in food services and drinking places.
Employment in both state government and local government continued to trend down, with April losses concentrated in the non-educational components.
Elsewhere in the service-providing sector, employment in information, financial activities, and transportation and warehousing changed little
in April.In the goods-producing sector of the economy, manufacturing employment rose by 29,000 in April. Since reaching an employment low in December 2009, manufacturing has added 250,000 jobs, including 141,000 in 2011. Over the month, employment growth continued in machinery (+5,000), primary metals (+4,000), and computer and electronic products (+4,000).
Mining added 11,000 jobs in April. More than half of the gain occurred in support activities for mining. Since a recent low point in October 2009, employment in mining has increased by 107,000.
Construction employment was about unchanged in April. This industry has shown little net movement since early 2010, after having fallen sharply during the prior 3 years.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 34.3 hours in April. The manufacturing workweek for all employees, at 40.4 hours, also was unchanged over the month, while factory overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in April at 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 3 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $22.95. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 1.9 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $19.37. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from +194,000 to +235,000, and the change for March was revised from +216,000 to +221,000.
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BLS Bitchezzzz!!!!
May the gods bless our beloved warlord ruler!
haha, Of course always on the up and up. Well for the 3 to 5 people that still believe we are in a recovery. Get a grip and take a look
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
Party on bitchez
What's U-6 at?
Up to 15.9%. Healthy...
Interesting to see the SGS figure later
15.5%
Yeah, sorry was looking at the Seasonally Adjusted column at 15.9%
Non Seasonally adjusted is 15.5%
Precisely what my first thought was, terry.
It (seasonally adjusted) is at 15.9%, or 0.2% up from 15.7%.
Party on bitchez...
Strip out the new McDonalds jobs and what do we have?
Thanks. That was my first thought as well. Manufacturing right? What a joke.
I figured McDs for more assembly type work than MFG.
McD's is an industrial process, so you're really manufacturing burgers. It's actually a leap to say that you are cooking or preparing food, if you really think about it.
Industrial Life : not iLife but I-life ... lets put the emphasis where it's most appropriate.
Right on, right on. McD's hired 50k this past month or at least that was the PR.
Want fries with that shake?
Actually, McD set out to hire 50k......they actually hired 62k.
244,000-175,000 (birth Death adjustment)-62,000 (McDonalds hires)=7,000
lol
no, not lol but ROFL + SUSFU
nice pick up mosley, looks like TD liked it so much he gave it its own post.
nice pick up mosley, looks like TD liked it so much he gave it its own post.
nice pick up mosley, looks like TD liked it so much he gave it its own post.
not too sure what happened here, ill blame IT. comment definately wasnt worth repeating 4 or 5 times!
Of course it was :)
Thank the McGawds. A new growth industry has arrived to replace all those crappy Hi-tech industry jobs sent overseas. Now once we adjust to living in dirt floor shacks and walking bare foot, all will be well in Hooverville. Bonus effect: We can scrounge through the company dumpster for uneaten fries.
Buy the oversized bowls of Dipping sauce bitchez.
They hadn't expected 12,000 physicists applying. They decided to hire and keep them busy doing distributed research on nuclear fusion during slack times on the midnight shifts.
if they want to sell this jobs # then even less reason for more QE
LOL 62k from macdonalds - what an economic boom - we need more macdonalds
Household report showed -190k?
What a shocker, the economy isn't improving (!)
read goldman's piece yesterday to show the effects of mcdonalds not mattering and also the fact that increased participation rate will require 290k+ jobs/mo just to keep the headline unemployment steady. suckers.
RISK ON!!!!!!!!
Will Silver & gold rally much on these better NFP numbers?
At least I hope this is the bottom.
they are rally now!!!!
they are rallying now!!!!
And they revised last weeks number...up of course, Will this weeks be revised over 250 next week I wonder.
sorry, little bit out of context, but such a great song -
'The Revolution Will Not Be Online'
http://skuff.bandcamp.com/track/the-revolution-will-not-be-online
Thanks to McDonalds for helping the numbers. Gotta count them burger flippers. Can I take out my mortgage now?
Rally on bitchez.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 244,000 in April, and the private sector added 268,000 jobs.
No need to read past that. Total, complete, 100%, Grade-A, unfiltered bullshit.
Birth/Death Model = +175,000 ?!?!?!?!?
Couldn't they just combine the QE3 full steam ahead announcement at the same time?
birth/death was 175k?
I am confused. How can the birth/death effect add employement in specific sectors?
Need more data.
Because they said so.
The broader U-6 unemployment rate rose to 15.9 percent from 15.7 percent
Bizarro! Unemployment RISES on best job growth in years!
Pinch me! Is this real?
The party line is that unemployment % counts the number of unemployed people ACTIVELY looking for a job. As economy recovers, more people "smell blood" and start looking for payrolls, hence increase in unemployment. But that's the theory.
birth certificates, bitchez
i'm gonna go to BLS and look at the trailing 12 months of birth death adjustments to see what they have been and if this is a huge outlier
McD'z hiring the peeps out there is what got us where we are today. Heckuva job Ronald...
I think we can say goodbye to the Mining jobs.
244K - 62K McD's hired in April event =182K (in the estimated consensus range...how come the analysts did not factor in the McD's jobs in their expectations?)
LOL@ CNBC. Kernan was just saying "let me check Drudge, I bet it says NINE PERCENT! NINE PERCENT! NINE PERCENT! (he said it in a retarded robot type voice)" and then Becky Quick was like "omggggggggg it DOES SAY 9 %%%% WTF@LFLKJFLOBBQ? Why can't they just say +244 kay?!?!?!" Lollllll I love these rigged ass markets.
Unemploymment rate up 2 clicks to 9%, job seekers are increasing faster than hires. They waited til spring, why tramp around in snow seeking non existent jobs when you can wait til warmer weather. Workweek unchanged. Mickey D's got a waiver from O'B admin to hire with lesser benefits (I heard) don't know if it's true or the details.
Futures are responding with glee. Wall Street has a Pollyanna complex!
weekly claims and the NFP report does not make any sense at all..this is another pump job...+175k b/d why dont they make it 250k and have 300k job growth::)))
Unemployment rate went up because household survey said -190K, that is a negative 190K
271,000 people drop out of the Labour Force, hence the increase in the Unemployment rate.
175k lol. Strap in folks this recovery is going to be some bitchin ride. Who cares if it's all a simulation.
The Fed should just do everyone a favor and send them all virtual reality goggles. It would save everyone much time and now they can sit back and at least go to a pretend job, cash a pretend check and go spend some virtual money at the VR Abercrombie.
Never realized how ahead of it's time The Wachowski twins were.
I love the Matrix trilogy (just watched Revolutions again last night), but it wasn't an entirely original idea:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulacrum
http://thisisnthappiness.com/post/489300143/cest-une-pipe
http://matrix.wikia.com/wiki/Simulacra_and_Simulation
The transformation of the "Mainstream Media" into the Corporate Media sure as hell changed the cultural landscape, though.
271,000 people drop out of the Labour Force, hence the increase in the Unemployment rate.
Holy smokes- Lets see unemployment numbers improving (if you believe..)- commodity prices coming down - stocks taking a one day hit -dollar strengthening- looks like the perfect setup to explain why the US needs one more "final" round of QE and how this "last" QE will fix the remaining problems after the worst financial crisis the world has ever seen .
What you wrote doesn't make sense to me. I thought the justification for QE was that it was an emergency response to economic weakness. How does improving employment numbers make for the "perfect setup" for QE? It seems to me it would make the argument for not doing any more QE.
Maybe we need a Jobless Claims / NFP MACD indicator ....
Birth/Death adjustment +175,000.
am confused, what does this mean?
Funeral homes are adding more jobs?
It is supposedly how they track old business that die off and new businesses born (they guess )and it's funny how much bigger that number gets every month. The big lie continues.
They must be counting all new eBays accounts as a new business. Newspaper ads for Tag Sales will be counted next.
Birth death is an estimate of business start ups, newly self employed, and small business hires not captured by the formal data gathering, minus small business closings.
It is just a guess.
i see so 80% of the report is just a guess?
The whole report is just a guess!
IIRC, it is a combination of statistical sampling and statistical adjustments ... it's not an actual tally of jobs. I could be wrong, however...........
Ok. Let's imagine you are trying to convince someone of how successful you are but sadly you only have about 800 bucks to your name and are unemployed. Obviously when you go home to impress your friends or secure a date with that gorgeous brunette you have had your eye on you would find it difficult to convince either of your success based on the above. Next morning wake up..go the mirror and repeat the following: I own 5 successful small businesses and have over 2 million in the bank. When you believe it they will believe it. Presto magic. That is Birth/Death Model. The govt literally pretends they are successful and not the complete opposite. Now stop being unparriotic please and go tell as many people as you can that Pres. Obama created 244k jobs and that the stock market is up.
Roiders tweet: "White House confirms approval to initiate Soylent Green contingency."
It means 174K people went down to the local sign shop and bought one of those magnetic banners you put on your car door, and presto! They instantly became self employed business people. The other 1k started magnetic sign stores.
I've never seen so many cars with those things on them as I have the past couple years.
Just 244k (or 244k-175k, LOL) added in 1 month?
Gee, just yesterday the news was "Initial jobless claims rose to 474k in the last week of April"
This ain't high-energy physics or anything, but it looks like the ship is still sinking...
Can someone explain where to find the birth/death adjustment number?
Crude jumps back above 100.
PMs not moving much, one way or the other.
So NFP really = +69,000.
(+244,000 minus the +175,000 Birth/Death "adjustment").
Is this a joke?
"69 K"?
Yeah, this is kind of a 69 between BLS and the FED, no?
Nobody really expected a bad number out of the gubbermint did they?
Number looks ok. Glad the govt. gives us the honest answers. Tough market to day trade.
0
Birth/Death adjustment +175,000
McDonalds hired 62,000 (I assume that total counted in April)
Sounds like a robust recovery...
I am a bit angry as I did nopt close out my shorts ona thursday, it's one of my trading rules
Apparently it's not a rule. Reassessment is in order.
Shouldn't we be adding much more than this by now? Trillions of dollars and this still seems pretty pathetic.
GOLD 1500+ NEXT WEEK OR QE2.5 ?
Hi guys, can someone explain the birth death adjustment figure? What does it mean? Everyone seems to be ignoring the question...help tthe newbies out please! Gracias
Read all about it here:
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
Am I right in thinking that 244k minus the 175k Birth/Death adjustment minus the 62k McDonalds jobs leaves just ---- 8k!!
Or am I overthinking this?
So let me get this straight.
Micky D's -- 62,000 jobs
Birth/death assumption -- 175,000 jobs
BLS -- 244,000
Net jobs from private sector less McD's -- 7,000
Shouldn't we just change BLS to just "BS"?
BUt stock futures jump 150 points! Where's the good news I missed?
That's how it works. All biases favor the ponzi masters. They stage market take downs so they can whack oil and metals and 2 days later and a few future ramps they sneak them back up and hope oil and gold do not tag along.
The bias always favors the bank stocks, reits and tech stocks with super betas.
It is a nationalized stock market. Only when Ben reaches new highs will he stop since Americans with think we recovered because stocks are back up and nobody will know what fraud, leverage and taxpayer dollars it took to get us there.
Ponder this: Obama's poll ratings were down, re-election chances dropping. Somebody comes up with a brilliant plan: 1) Resurrect Osama and kill him in a staged-for-TV show. Follo that up with a photo op at ground zero with lots of families of survivors. Looks great on TV. Leads to a jump in the polls and a sharp reduction in criticism. 2) Engineer a collapse in the commodities complex, bringing crude down so that motorists can see gas is cheaper than ever! 3) Goose the NFP and other key economic numbers to give the appearance of an improving economy. And lo - in a couple of months Obama is at the top in the polls.
You work out if this is true or hypothetical.
The problem with your theory is that it's all happening too soon. What good is it to engineer all this 18 months before the election. If this was all happening in May 2012, I might be more suspicious. Didn't George H.W. Bush have something like a 90% approval rating 18 months before the 1992 election (right after the Gulf War)?
Those jobs must have come with Food Stamps.
Is there anything in the US that isn't corrupt?
US economy is still toast and QEn still the future. It is still PMs as insurance against dying fiat, despite the recent corrupt activity of the cartel.
+1
birth/death doesn't look 3 sigma event out of line, here are the links to the adjustments for 2010 and 2011
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
and for 2009 and earlier
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdhst.htm
The April survey period was 5 weeks this year rather than the traditional 4 weeks. This boosted BDA by adding a fifth week. The BLS probably added 1 week from June and you noted that June 2010 BDA added 192k so June's run rate is the highest of the year. We should get a pay back in the May data. This is a false positive which is confirmed by the weekly claims data, ISM Services data, and the Fed's regional manufacturing surveys.
Labor force participation rate remained steady at 64.2%, so the rise in the unemployment number to 9% did not come from discouraged workers re-entering the labor pool.
BTFD!
More skewed optimism from the MSM...
CNN/Fortune reporting some 96,000 available positions at Fortune 100 firms:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2011/fortune/1105/gallery.fortune500_most_hiring.fortune/index.html?iid=EAL
I checked out #4 on the list (IBM), listed as having 8,320 jobs available:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2011/fortune/1105/gallery.fortune500_most_hiring.fortune/4.html
Following the link and then querying IBM's job listing shows 2,100 of those openings being in the U.S.
Same with G.E. - CNN reports 8,320 jobs, but their site shows 2,843 in the U.S.
If I extrapolate and assume that 3/5 of the 96K are outside of the U.S., the conclusion is that 20 of the top 100 firms in the country have about than 40K jobs available. And lots of those are internships or Best Buy entry-level associates.
How long before the veil is shredded?
Ha ha. IBM jobs. That's laughable. They tell existing employees, "Your job just moved to Dubuque IA at a lower salary. If you don't want to move, please sign these exit papers and have a good life." Plus, they just use the help wanted ads to scam the H1-B visa system. "Hey we couldn't find any US workers with the skills. Gotta bring in some off-shore workers at one third the salary." Then the gubmint winks and nods. IBM is a master at the game, just like all the other US Techs.
And the equities markets tear upwards....(it's not even humorous anymore)
Birth death adjustment up from 117,000 to 175,000.
Way to jiggle the numbers.
watch that birth death adjustment! today's number was more in line to shitty, if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks
watch that birth death adjustment! today's number was more in line to shitty, if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks
The birth death adjustmenet says it all - out here in the real world there is no driver for new hiring. Simple as that. But that is not news, so other that the quantum fluctuations in the markets this "news" tends to either induce or collaterally support, such as the inevitable levitation in equities, which will resume after this week's dip ends, pay no attention.
You all need to go to the re-education camps! Gubbermint numbers are real, more jobs are being created and all is well....
War is peace
Lies are truths