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NFP -36K, Unemployment Rate 9.7%, Average Hours Worked Down By 0.1 to 33.8
Key highlights from the February report:
- Total Civilian labor force at 153,512, compared to 153,170 in January
- Actual unemployment: 14,871, compared to 14,837 in January
- The pool of available workers at 21,041, 239k increase from January's 20,802
- The Over 20 split of unemployed men/women was 10.0%/8.0%
- The labor force participation rate was 64.8%, compared to 64.7% in January
- Average hourly earnings increased by +0.1% compared to consensus estimate of +0.2%
- Total average hours worked in the private industry at 33.8, down from 33.9 in January; The low was in the Leisure and Hospitality services at 25.7, the high in Mining and Logging at 42.6
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TD...b'berg reports average hours at 33.1
Here's from the BLS:
he average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours in February. The manufacturing workweek for all employees dropped by 0.4 hour to 39.5 hours, and factory overtime decreased by 0.2 hour over the month. In February, the average workweek for production or nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.2 hour to 33.1 hours; the workweek fell by 1.0 hour in construction, likely reflecting the unusually severe winter storms. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
Larry and others work to make bad numbers feel and look good. At this stage of market performance, there should be more evidence of job growth and expansion, not meek data. I think Rosey's right about S&P overvaluation. How do smart investors commit investment dollars towards upside with so little fundamental justification? Play on children, play on.
So once again the NFP expectation and perception has been successfully managed into the "not as bad as expected" category. With all the talk about snow, you would have thought cocaine was coming back. Now the spin doctors have another month to tell the world things are on the mend.
Perception is reality when that's what the vast majority wants, with crumbling walls papered over with good feelings and Federal Reserve Notes. Thank God the party isn't over and I can go back to the blissful numbness of eat-work-TV-sleep-repeat.
This is a magnificent display in the wonders of propaganda for those of us who are keenly aware of and study this phenomenon. To watch it unfold in real time as we have over the past few years (starting with "this time is different" on the housing bubble and "the subprime crisis is contained") is really quite entertaining. I know that you appreciate this CD and understand it better than most.
I do believe that I know how it is going to end, just don't know the timing.....
you probably went short into numbers... oh oh...
Is this the only conclusion you could draw every time. Say something constructive.
i say something constructive if u want... go flat into NFP, always flat. u don't get paid enough to carry position into number, ether way. it has very high level of noise and huge margin of error. And if you went long or short into numbers you have to blame yourself, not numbers... Its game, nothing else nothing more. And bitching and moaning that game is rigged doesn't put food on the table. And one more dude: Market Can Be Wrong Longer Then You Can Stay Solvent!
Bernanke changed your last sentence:
"The market can stay rigged longer than you can stay solvent."
I have no dog in this fight. I went to cash in October and will stay there indefinitely
You're right, this is a game. Whether flat, long or short into a number, that's a choice one makes if they care to play. It's never an investment strategy.
This site is used more for unpopular facts and truth about economics and how political activity impacts our markets etc... It also has some good anecdotal data for a short term idea but I wouldn't say trade off that stuff.
Trading is the game. Frankly I use this site for great content and great comments, even from you. So, cool. Take care and hope you can make some money too!
+1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
you probably went short into numbers... oh oh...
actually, no. i've been short.
my time horizon is not a day trade or a 60 min chart. to each his own.
I do recall people saying similar things when I was all in FAS in February 2009...i just kind of waited and allowed history to do its work. I'll do the same this time, thank you very much. History NEVER makes a mistake.
"I do believe that I know how it is going to end, just don't know the timing....."
All dams, no matter how securely built, will eventually fail. This is a given. It may be in 100 years or 1000 years but all dams will fail. If there is no maintenance done on the structure, the time to failure will decrease but an amount commensurable to the condition of the dam when maintenance was first forgone as well as other unquantifiable events and conditions.
But if you have a group of people systematically drilling holes into the dam and setting off single sticks of dynamite, while each explosion might not do tremendous damage, the dam will fail and it will fail much sooner. Just because we don't know the exact moment doesn't mean we should convince ourselves we will know what the warning signs of imminent collapse are and that we will have time to get away safely.
The illusion that things are better and that sovereign debt levels, which just 3 years ago would have been considered national suicide but now are dismissed as manageable, are symptoms of severe societal psychological illness. Since the sun still rises each morning, the lights still come on and the dogs still wants out, the illusion of normalcy is supported by those who wish only to see normal.
This is why I no longer try to deliberately wake my fellow passengers to the dangers of the runaway train. They will ignore me anyway, regardless of what I say or do. All I gain for my efforts is emotional stress and social rejection. You can bring the horse to water but you can't make it drink. Better to work on my inner journey and find deeper peace. The sleeper will only awaken when s/he is ready.
magnificently stated.
Someone explain this to me ... the BLS puts these numbers out weekly after conducting phone surveys? Can I get one of these jobs and work from home? (I am willing to fudge the results.)
Easy way to do it..
Ring, ring, hello, have you got a job? No? Sorry to have bothered you, wrong number..
ring ring, hello, have you got a job? Yes, okay, thank you...
Ticks box for another job found
It's a shame that we don't have some sort of Federal Tax Withholding, taken out of your check in conjunction with a taxpayer ID/social security number. If you did have that, wouldn't you know exactly how many people are working?
A shame. If we had those two items, the information would be accurate, real-time, and would eliminate the BLS.
Don't they tax unemployment checks too though?
Good point. What's left (after tax) in an unemployment check would be sent to the address of your taxpayer ID number.
That's like, three known variables.
If I've learned anything with my engineering degree, it's that having three known variables is an unsolvable equation.
We detonated the first nuclear weapon on August, 6th, 1945.
Put a man on the moon on July 16th, 1969.
The idea that we could not use tax receivables and the concurrent social security number, with information such as unemployment, disability, etc... And instead rely on a birth-death models, phone data, and ADP reports. Ridiculous.
Mark it zero, dude.
They're taxed, but withholding is voluntary.
LOL
But then how would you fudge the numbers? I was asked once by my son why the tax code was so complicated. Aren't their ways to make it simpler he asked?
Of course there are I said. But then who would you bribe to exert influence in your favor. Silly boy, it's not intended to be fair to all, only to some.
Better than expected. FTSE pushing new highs for the rally. Bob Barbera remains as annoying as ever lol!
http://goldmoney.com?gmrefcode=gm99
Has anyone else noticed that starting a couple of months ago the CES Net Birth/Death Model is no longer published until at least ONE HOUR after the employment data?
I guess that it is inferred that people will forget about it after an extended period of time, like one hour!!!
Previously, it was always available within minutes after the employment data.
common. ir was good number... and clearly the way how market trades - people are short...
Market sentiment has been more bullish and short interest is not big enough to send prices higher. There's below average upside volume so, what are you talking about bud?
i teach you big secret of trading my friend...supper-dupper technical indicator... when market goes higher, it means more buyers then sellers... this is big secret so don't share it with anyone please..
Will someone close that dam door? The trolls are coming in and tracking mud all over the clean carpet.
Sorry, I thought for a minute you actually were objective and had some brains. I likely have much more experience than you'll ever acquire in your life so don't push it.
LOL. Anyone catch Betty Liu's guest claiming this month's numbers would have been out of the park if not for the snow. Kudos to Betty for demonstrating some skepticism for once.
Yes... Snowfall can now prevent homeless, starving unemployed people from trying to find a job when there's none to be had.
Who knew being moderately wealthy could make you an absolute moron.
Oh wait... I've been claiming that for years. By the way.... there's this bridge out in Brooklyn...
Some notes:
1. Seasonally adjusted U3 and U6 are 9.7 and 16.8. Not seasonally adjusted are 10.4 and 17.9.
2. For purposes of Household Survey: (A) People who missed work for weather-related events were counted as employed, whether or not they are paid for the time off. (B) People not in the labor force increased by 176,000. (C) The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (involuntary part-time workers) increased by 500,000 in February.
So we're -- officially - hovering at a body count of 1 in 10 Americans without a job, and another 1 in 10 taking a huge cut as a part-time worker. To say nothing of people who have magically disappeared from the labor force, or simply not entered the labor force (living in mom and dad's basement, perhaps.) And the White House admits that employment won't be roaring back anytime soon.
And this is a recovery? Green shoots?
What a fucking con game.
This feels like the TARP announcement. Spike, then plummet. There is nothing fundamental under this pig, nothing at all. Capitulation must be a matter of time, nature will have it no other way.....
Total average hours worked in the private industry at 33.8, down from 33.9 in January; The low was in the Leisure and Hospitality services at 25.7, the high in Mining and Logging at 42.6
Yes, mining, as in GOLD BITCHES!!!
I am Chumbawamba.
LOL
I saw that while reading the summary report and I wondered if it would draw my favorite outspoken ZHer out of his den. Thanks for not disappointing me.
My pleasure, CD ;)
I am Chumbawamba.
This is your basic BLS snow job.
Seasonally adjusted employed: 138,641k
Non-seasonally adjusted employed: 137,203k
Non-seasonally adjusted unemployment: 10.6%
Springtime coming - green shoots! animal spirits! baby swans!
So the unemployment rate remains the same and we're supposed to celebrate.
If you believe the Government doesn't lie about the numbers, then you'd have to celebrate the fact that things didn't get any better.
If you believe the Government does everything it can to fudge the numbers then you'd have to celebrate that they couldn't manage to fudge it any better than this.
Either way, I see nothing good. My impression is that U6, the only stat that matters, is over 20% now -- whether they'll admit it or not -- and that's some seriously bad mojo.
um, GS bought 1100 SPX bigs yesterday, around 3:20. nice 10 percent gain they made if they held til now, odds they knew this number? 150%
'Now Main Street's whitewashed windows and vacant stores
Seems like there ain't nobody wants to come down here no more
They're closing down the textile mill across the railroad tracks
Foreman says these jobs are going boys and they ain't coming back to your hometown'
-Bruce Springsteen
'Although he may not always recognize his bondage, modern man lives under a tyranny of numbers.'
-Nicholas Eberstadt
'There was a young man from Trinity,
Who solved the square root of infinity.
While counting the digits,
He was seized by the fidgets,
Dropped science, and took up divinity.'
-Unknown Author
The Ancients used mathematics in order to try and understand the world around them.
Us Moderns use it to obfuscate.
First, let's agree on the basics.
The labor force is the number of people aged 16 or older who are either working or looking for work and the size of the labor force depends on two factors. The first is the size of the population, which is determined by rates of birth, immigration, and death. The second is the labor force participation rate—the percent of the population that is working or actively seeking employment.
From bls.gov : Excluded are persons under 16 years of age, all persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, and persons on active duty in the Armed Forces. The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force. People with jobs are employed, people who do not have jobs and are looking for jobs are unemployed, and people who meet neither labor market test are not in the labor force.
Now, let's break down the numbers from whne this secular bear started in 2000 to the February 2010 report (data from http://www.bls.gov/web/cpseea1.pdf):
In the year 2000:
Civilian noninstitutional population : 212,577,000
Civilian labor force : 142,583,000
Civilian labor force particpation rate : 67.1%
Number of employed : 136,891,000
Percent of Population : 64.4%
Number of unemployed : 5,692,000
Percent of Population : 4.0%
Not in the labor force : 69,994,000
Let's compare that to February 2010:
Civilian noninstitutional population : 235,998,000
Civilian labor force : 153,512,000
Civilian labor force particpation rate : 64.8%
Number of employed : 138,641,000
Percent of Population : 58.5%
Number of unemployed : 14,871,000
Percent of Population : 9.7%
Not in the labor force : 83,487,000
Holy denominator of doom oh ye bullisht throngs!
13 million people, over the last decade, have neither jobs nor any desire to look for one?
That's greater than the total increase of the civilian labor force!
But the boomer generation(and by the way what are we going to call the next one? the 'buster' generation?), those 74 million from 1946 to 1964, they ain't retiring en masse yet...
Oh golly I guess they are all going back to school to learn new skills for the global economy. But wait... according to the 2000 census there were 76.6 million students enrolled in schools from kindergarten on. Out of this total 17.5 million were enrolled in post-secondary (college including graduate school.) Assuming the 2010 census doesn't report that an epidemic of forty and fifty somethings are joining the beer-bonging caste that is today's 'enseignement supérieur' in an entirely stealth fashion, 'going to school' seems to be a specious explanation...
Where did you go Joe? A nation bids its unemployed adieu in this Great Depression.
The Northern Trust stated on January 10,2006 in its' report, Noteworthy Aspects About the Participation Rate (2000-2005),'there is no conclusive research explaining the reasons for the downward trend.'...
Or as Alice said when stuck in the rabbit's room 'there's no room for me to grow up anymore here.'
Charts at : http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/03/where-did-you-go-joe-nat...
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