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NFP -85K, November Revised From -11K to +4K, Unemployment At 10%, Labor Force Declines
From the BLS:
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.
Household Survey Data
In December, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, were unchanged. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.7 million, and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent. (See table A-1.)
Unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (10.2 percent), adult women (8.2 percent), teenagers (27.1 percent), whites (9.0 percent), blacks (16.2 percent), and Hispanics (12.9 percent)--showed little change in December. The unemployment rate for Asians was 8.4 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up, reaching 6.1 million. In December, 4 in 10 unemployed workers were jobless for 27 weeks or longer. (See table A-9.)
The civilian labor force participation rate fell to 64.6 percent in December. The employment-population ratio declined to 58.2 percent. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged at 9.2 million in December and has been relatively flat since March. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-5.)
About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, an increase of 578,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 929,000 discouraged workers in December, up from 642,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.6 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down in December (-85,000). Job losses continued in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care continued to add jobs. During 2009, monthly job losses moderated substantially. Employment losses in the first quarter of 2009 averaged 691,000 per month, compared with an average loss of 69,000 per month in the fourth quarter. (See table B-1.)
Construction employment declined by 53,000 in December, with job losses throughout the industry. Employment in construction has fallen by 1.6 million since the recession began.
In December, employment in manufacturing decreased by 27,000. The average monthly decline for the last 6 months of 2009 (-41,000) was much lower than the average monthly decline for the first half of the year (-171,000). Since the recession began, manufacturing employment has fallen by 2.1 million; three fourths of this drop occurred in the durable goods component (-1.6 million).
Wholesale trade employment declined by 18,000 in December, with the majority of the decline occurring among durable goods wholesalers. Employment in retail trade was little changed over the month, although general merchandise stores lost 15,000 jobs.
Temporary help services added 47,000 jobs in December. Since reaching a low point in July, temporary help services employment has risen by 166,000.
Health care employment continued to increase in December (22,000), with notable gains in offices of physicians (9,000) and home health care services (8,000). The health care industry has added 631,000 jobs since the recession began.
In December, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.2 hours. The manufacturing workweek, at 40.4 hours, and factory overtime, at 3.4 hours, were unchanged over the month. Since May, the manufacturing workweek has increased by 1.0 hour. (See table B-2.)
In December, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $18.80. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent, while average weekly earnings have risen by 1.9 percent. (See table B-3.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from -111,000 to -127,000, and the change for November was revised from -11,000 to +4,000.
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Rosie co-host on Bloomberg Radio in the 9am hour http://www.bloomberg.com/audioplayers/playr_owm.html?clipName=Bloomberg%... EST
My non spin analysis of the data today
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/01/quick-thoughts-on-labor-reports.html
Double-dip in employment.
Report it, MSM.
U-3 will have to be 15% and Obama would likely have to be out of office before that would happen.
We can dream about a responsible MSM can't we. Unfortunately, just as we have a captured political class, we have a captured 4th estate. In fact, it seems to me the 4th estate has always been "captured" to some extent or another and it's a prerequisite before the political class can be completely subverted.
It's truly amazing how many people think that just because the MSM "breaks" a political or corporate scandal from time to time (and anything you read about those scandals is fact) the 4th estate MUST be doing it's job and the only bad stuff not disclosed is petty in nature. I can't tell you how many times I hear the argument that whistle blowers (and their information) will be widely disseminated in the MSM press. Since there are few (if any) that must mean there is nothing to my assertion that there are fascist conspiracies.
And they accuse me of circular logic.
CD, you're old enough to remember Viet Nam. Way back then, the NY Times read like Zero Hedge. Anyone remember the 'Pentagon Papers'? Watergate? The plain fact of the matter is that the MSM are now "the pigs".
I used to think this way but have since changed my view as I have dug deeper into these "scandals." My eyes were really opened when we learned who "deep throat" was. Mark Felt has been presented in the press (particularly since his death) as a right minded patriotic citizen who just happened to work for the FBI.
But we need to dig deeper to understand who Nizon's enemies were and who benefited from the Watergate scandal. I'm not saying Nixon was good or bad, I'm simply looking at this thing with the desire to see underneath the sheets. This subject is too long and involved to even begin the discussion here but I suggest you look much further.
The Pentagon Papers is another interesting example of deep politics. I'm not saying in the least that Daniel Ellsberg is/was not a brave and hard working journalist. But that doesn't mean he wasn't being used to release information that could hurt certain people/parties to further other persons/parties goals. The more I dig, the bigger the piles of s**t I dig up. Things are not as the seem on they surface nor even when you peel the first or second layers from the onion.
you need to keep digging deeper....daniel ellsberg
is a cia agent. the pentagon papers was a cia
op to embarrass nixon just as the budhhist uprising
was used in 1963 to force diem from office before
the cia orchestrated the murder of the diem brothers....
watergate was another cia op in which alexander
haig had a leading role in destroying nixon. haig
worked with oni in the late 60s along with bob woodward
who is another intelligence hack...nixon was removed
from office because he started getting into that
detente business just like kennedy and nixon did
not take orders quite as well as he should...hence
the cia came out with that imperial presidency
bullshit....
deep throat was NOT mark felts - it was alexaner "
i'm in charge here" haig with cameo appearances
probably from others who helped fill the role.
the bottom line is that the new york times in the 1960s
and even more so now is a cia controlled news faking
organization...
The question is how far down the rabbit hole do you wish to go. I have many theories as to what's going on and a lot of them make sense. What I wrote about above was what I felt I could prove based upon publicly released and acknowledged documentation as well as legally admissible testimony or trial transcripts. The Church committee hearings and documents, while themselves obscured with parts buried and never released, are also a treasure trove of information.
The problem is that when talking to a population that is (for the most part) asleep at the wheel, you must gently wake them. Otherwise you are turned off and ignored. Regardless of how much I censor myself, if my goal is to awaken, I must play by the rules of the asleep. If I startle too much, they go back to sleep and then I defeat the purpose I had for shaking them awake. Sometimes baby steps are all I can take with some people, as frustrating and unfair as that might be.
Even the alarm clock must be practical when ringing. Too loud and it gets thrown across the room and ignored. Too soft and it's ignored. Years of practice shows me that I must be careful when ringing if my goal is to awaken.
well keep doing what you are doing but just realize
that the rabbit hole is deep.....i have reached
its bottom and am thoroughly satisfied with the
evidence supporting my discoveries....
webster tarpley - with whom i have many ideological
differences and who has a couple of cockeyed
theories concerning bush - has done a great job
of exposing the bush crime syndicate....
the evidence is torrential concerning the
complete takeover of this country by what eisenhower
called the military industrial complex. it was in
front of us in 1961 when eisenhower thus spake.
unless the angel of death destroys the fed-cia, the
usa is a has-been republic without even a prayer
for salvation.....and it has been that way since
1963....
"well keep doing what you are doing but just realize that the rabbit hole is deep"
Maybe you didn't read my entire post but stopped at the first sentence. I didn't say I wasn't interested in going deeply down the rabbit hole nor that I didn't understand how deep it goes nor that I had not seen the bottom. I've been on this path since the late 70's and nothing you're telling me is news to me.
When talking to people about these subjects, if they even wish to look further, they are interested in seeing documents that support what I'm saying, not opinion. This is why when speaking publicly as I'm doing now, I only talk about what I can support.
I was talking about spreading information to others who are not aware of what's going on and who would consider all the information coming at them as very alarming and shut down. I was talking about the methods I use to wake people up who would otherwise shut down if I come on too strong. You might wish to consider my methods if you want to be more effective.
I would be interested in hearing more about what is really going on behind the scenes. I understand what you're saying about shocking people too much, but if there is documentation, proof or even a plausible theory I would relish the opportunity to explore it. I'm not totally naive or easily shocked.
Here is a JFK Speech made before the American Newspaper Publishers Association about secret societies and the importance of the press
A MUST See...clearly ZH carrying the water.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhZk8ronces
This speech is at the top of my browser "favorites" and is played monthly. In fact, my personal investigation of the JFK assassination has been truly mind blowing. Again, I won't go into detail but I wish to ask one question.
Why is it that most of the details regarding the "official" (the Warren Commission in particular) and unofficial governmental investigations are still under lock and key despite the 50 year time limit having passed? Oh sure, there's a trickle here and there as some documents are released. But the bulk is still hidden from public view. Why?
Because it's not the names they are hiding but the methods used and the governmental agencies involved in the political assassination that was billed as perpetrated by a lone wolf assassin. God bless all those lone wolves out there. America loves to believe it's always the lone wolf that does the dirty work of others.
"despite the 50 year time limit having passed"
CAPTCHA Question for CD:
2010-1963=?
I have 10 fingers and 10 toes so after 20 I'm lost. The only reason I registered with ZH was to get away form the CAPTCHA.
Actually I was writing and thinking about something else (another example of another investigation of another assassination) when I wrote 50 years. Then I changed the example and edited and didn't change the number of years. But I find it intersting that of all I wrote, including the subject material, you focus on that misstatement.
So does that mean that because I am wrong about the 50 years, that everything I said is wrong? That's usually the technique used by the propagandists and myth keepers to "debunk" people who stray away from the consensus group think.
Say it ain't so anon, say it ain't so.
yes you have encountered a disrupter and someone
who has no interest in substance....50 years was
a perfectly prosaic way of expressing the lapse
of time just as 2000 years since christ or 225 / 250
years since the revolution is equally acceptable...
Hunter S. Thompson suicide note, titled:
There must! be something to this...
I might argue that suicide is a rational response to a totally irrational, psychopathic and increasingly dangerous (environmentally, emotionally, economically etc) society/world. I actually read an online article along these lines a few months ago and I'm still kicking myself for not printing or saving it.
please read jfk and the unspeakable by james
douglass...you will get a bird's eye view of how the
cia, joint chiefs of staff, secret service, fbi,
nsa, and other establishment elements of the
government planned, executed, and covered-up the
murder of jfk.
he cites col fletcher prouty who operated the cia's
infiltration scheme of the federal government
starting in 1955. by 1963 it controlled every
single aspect of the government to the point where
it was openly and secretly defying president
kennedy. the cia is the nexus between the government
and the plutocrats.
lbj instituted the warren commission as a desperate
way to avoid world war 3 and his own assassination....
nicholas katzenback wrote a memo dated 11/25/1963
stating that the american people MUST become convicnced
that oswald acted alone in murdering the president.
of course in private lbj ridiculed the warren
commission report yet quacks and flacks like gerald
posner and vincent bugliosi come out about every 10
years to rebolster the lies.
the assassination of kennedy implemented operation
northwoods which was approved by lyman lemnitzer in
1962. it called for provocative "attacks" on usa
soil (just like 9/11) to incite war against
the ussr and cuba. oswald who was a very valuable
intelligence agent was sheep dipped to look like
a communist sympathizer....the cia would thus use
that information to demand an invasion of cuba.
hoover informed lbj that the cia had given him
false information on "oswald" in mexico. lbj quicly
saw that the cia was manipulating him into ww3....
at that point lbj could 1. launch ww3 to
save america's honor as kennedy did not do during
bay of pigs (according the dulles' murder machine)
2. confront the cia over the evidence he had of
their involvement in the murder or 3. cover it up
and invent the lone gunman bullshit. johnson
chose the latter.
oswald did not fire a shot at the president nor
was he on the 6th floor of tsbd or even on the
5th floor from where one shot was fired. (for
those wondering, the lethal shot came from the
overpass. the throat wound came from the grassy
knoll).
there is so much more to tell such as oswald's
fake defection to the ussr in 1959 in order to supply
it with the ability to shoot down gary powers'
u2 in order to sabatage the eisenhower / khruschev
talks in paris in may 1960....
the take away is that the milirary industrial
complex owns america's government. the cia
totally embeds every single federal agency. as
catherine austin fitts discovered to her huge
shock the bureauocracy answers to "higher authority"
than the hud secretary or the president.
the key killers of kennedy were allan dulles,
richard helms, edwin landsdale, mcgeorge bundy,
curtis lemay, james angleton, among tons of names i can't recall including david atlee phillips, frank
sturgis, clay shaw, david ferrie etc etc...i believe that lyman lemnitzer was involved....
the fbi, gerald ford, arlen specter, rankin, and
others were participated with gusto in the cover-up....
many of whom were purely evil and some who thought
they were helping avoid ww3....
I have always been a scandal/conspiracy nut. I never bought into the Oswald lone nut theory. Read many books and everything I could find on the web. The more I read, the more I was convinced we were being bullshitted.
About 3 or 4 years ago I was in Dallas on business so I went to the museum. I spent about 3 hours there, inside and out. They have the snipers window (and corner) boxed in with glass, boxes and all like they would have been that day. I then walked all over Dealy Plaza, the overpass, the grassy knoll, and behind the fence.
First, if the shots came from the 6th floor and hit the President where the "X" (the first shot) is painted in the road (how accurate they are placed would be a question) does not add up at all. This bullet, which was suppose to be the "magic bullet" went through Kennedy's neck, into Connelly and so on, is not even close. The height from the sniper's window looking down on the "X" is way to steep. If the shot went in the back of his neck, the bullet would have went through the floor of the car, not the front of his neck, unless of course it hit something to change direction, like a bone. But this was the CE399 pristine bullet. The trajectory drawings you see are pretty flat, so I ain't buying the official story on this alone.
From behind the fence on the grassy knoll, you could use a pistol. It's that close. Close enough I could probably hit him and I'm not a marksman by any streach, but sure as hell an assassin could. The entire plaza is not as big as it looks on TV, which was one of the things that surprised me. Along with more security than an airport. Why? Are they afraid someone might find something? I don't have the answers, but I sure ain't buying what their telling.
FWIW, one of the books I read implicated Alexander Haig as Deep Throat as well. I think it was John Dean, not that I believe him either.
deep throat was not john dean....he didn't have
access to the white house to reveal the information
to which haig had access....
i have been to dealy plaza as well....the range from
the grassy knoll (behind the fence)
to the presidential limousine is too far for a
pistol and especially for an assassination....that
is why the ss driver had to momentarily stop the
limousine to allow the scope equipped assassin
to pick off kennedy's skull....
edward lansdale operated the entire dealy plaza
complex which was encircled with assassins....there
is no way kennedy would survive the killing zone....
all shooters were equipped with professional
assassination firearms which includes scopes...
arlen specter must have been rotfphp (rolling on
the floor peeing his pants) when he came up with
the zig zagging bullet theory....it is just one
reason why lbj mercilessly ridiculed the ignorant crap of
shit....but it was good enough to avert ww3 -
at least that was his rationalization....
on the other hand it was not good enough to avert
vietnam which kennedy was ending via nsam 263....
lbj had to throw that bone to the cia and the
military industrial complex war whores....
Not saying Dean was deep throat, but his book fingered Haig. The head shot to Kennedy could be a pistol shot from the fence on the knoll. It is that close.
i am sure a pistol could hit something from the
distance but not well enough for the given task
especially with the angles involved...
as it turns out ed hoffman witnessed the scene
and reported that a sniper rifle was fired and broken
down for a carrying case...
What if Dean gave Deep Throat (Felt) the information that Felt fed Woodward? What if Deep Throat was a composite (Dean's information and Felt's leaks)?
Looks like they didn't want to blow rates out of the water with the heavy debt issuance next week.
Equities look slightly soft following the number. I'm looking for the dip buying brigade to jump in after an initial small drop and then massive distribution rest of day.
Good point, also when you think about it, who the hell hires in December? My mistake!!!! I still expect significant hiring in Q1 2010, but this was a soft report. With ISM new orders surging and profits coming back, firms will start hiring again. As for stocks, buy any dip.
Sure, firms will start hiring again - just in time for the second shoe (CRE) to drop like an anvil.
So perhaps we've hit "bottom" on jobs (best case, I think). Problem is we can probably linger here quite some time, no?
Zactly, have hit bottom or close thereto, and will simply bounce along. There will be no resumption of "business as usual" for as far as the eye can see. There is a lot of crack smoking going on with the Kool-Aid Propaganda Crowd, and it's getting old and tired.
Good, I have instructed my prodigy at Goldman to ease CL up to $120/barrel over the next 3 months.
I hope you are all ready. The 90% employed are getting too spendthrifty. Saving is unGodly.
I always figured I would talk to God when there was a reasonable chance s/he would respond. Here's my chance. Now, what to ask? Let's see. I could ask what's the meaning of life? Or why do innocent children come down with cancer? Oh, I've go it.
How's the weather up there God?
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Thanks for the Heads-Up, God.
By the way, have you seen my keys? I'm in a hurry and I can't find them anywhere...
Thanks God;
Why do my socks get lost in the dryer?
All I know is basically what I see day-to-day. I work in strategy for a software company that sells high-end simulation (think FEA, CFD, etc.) software globally to just about every industry you can think of - the very people you'd expect to lead us out of depression and into recovery - the companies who are almost certainly going to be the first to invest in new tools, new people, and new ideas.
Know what I'm seeing?
Nothing.
Flat. Stinking. Nothing.
We're managing to grow since Fall '08 by taking some business from our competition, we're seeing absoltutely no organic growth in our sectors - we're taking a larger percentage of a shrinking pie.
I'm seeing anything other than "Business as Usual", in other words.
Anecdote, not data of course, but it's really hard for me to swallow the hopium when I get this sort of cold, wet, smelly blanket thrown on me every single day.
@186692
Perhaps U-3 has hit bottom (although I doubt it and agree with your characterization of that as "best case"). We have a long way to go before a bottom is formed in true unemployment/underemployment (pick U-6 or SGS), IMO.
Buy any dip. I haven't heard that since pets.com.
Hey that talking puppet thing was adorable. Who'd have thought that wouldn't be enough?
"Buy any dip"
Hey...that was the "experts'" advice in Tokyo after 1989, too!
NOT. The US stock market, maybe indeed the entire world's, are a massive Ponzi Scheme just waiting to implode at this point.
Yes, the "waterfall effect" to resume shortly.
Good lord, you sound like Cramer every time you post.
Buy, buy, buy BOOOYAH buy - eh, Leo? You could
have your own little soundboard feature with your
contributions, like Cramer does on CNBC.com.
Not only do only 19-25 percent of CEO's (depending on the survey) indicate they have hiring plans for 2010, a look at the following factors does not yield reasons to be optimistic about hiring prospects:
S&P balance sheets reveal that although cash has gone up....debt has increased 2.7 times the increase in cash from all the expense reduction efforts to date. In other words, most companies are at great risk and need to manage cash tightly...for interest rates may increase and or revenues may drop....leaving them very vulnerable. Hiring in the face of that vise is outright foolish.
In addition the cap ex expenditures projected for 2010 are very very low...and that translates into a lot less jobs from suppliers.
The real estate market shows no reason to think that construction jobs will be booming
Retail did as well as it did only via low inventory. Low inventory means less temp workers in the pick, pack ship operations and less fork lift drivers and less warehouse workers. Black Friday has its name because its the point at which retailers cross over into the black. That means the industry will run headcount very low as well.
Auto sales show no reason to think they will be hiring.
Consumers are buying less...so thats a lot less business and personal services. Their wages, hours, jobs, homes and credit are all shrinking and likely to shrink
All in all it is hard to even make a plausable case for increased hiring
Leo, Leo, Leo, what are we going to do with you? Haven't you read any of the top-level macro analyses floating around the ether? Here's the essence of our global problem characterized in one simple pseudo-equation:
(Economic) Wealth = Energy Utility X Productive Efficiency
Governments and central banks can play all the games they want managing public opinion and manipulating the People's expectations, but at the end of the day, they are regular folks, just like the rest of us, who have to deal with the same iron clad rules of nature we all face.
Unless we either find new, affordable & accessible supplies of energy, and/or discover some miraculous solution(s) that revolutionize existing economic efficiencies, we simply do not possess the necessary means of production sufficient to pyramid additional layers of debt to propel continuing fractional reserve lending cycles.
This is all anyone needs to know. All the rest is just noise - signifying nothing. Uncle Ben can print all he wants, and the One can promote endless (government) hiring & wealth re-distribution programs, but at the end of the day, good 'ole Newtonian physics close the bar.
Unless we (ie humanity) come up with something pretty damn quick, the temporary facades we see all around us that go by such names as ' USA' are just ephemeral labels used to pacify the masses.
How about this?
The earth's temperature increases with depth at about 25-30 deg C per kilometer. As we have the technology to drill sideways as well as down, why not drill a boatload of U shaped holes and circulate water through the casing? Radioactive decay is primarily responsible for the warming, and the sheer mass around the casing will keep the temperature high. Steam, baby.
http://www.geothermal-energy.org/314,what_is_geothermal_energy.html
Indeed, as Someone Else might say, "Steam, Bitches."
Sancho, the reason I'm not a 'peak oil' doomer is because I believe human ingenuity can solve many problems. Rather than focus on the energy side of the equation, I think the real breakthroughs will result from productive efficiencies.
Riddle me this: why are we 6ft tall? Why not 3ft tall? We no longer have to fear predators; (genetically) reducing our size would halve our footprint. It may seem farfetched right now, but track out a few hundred years. As energy sources dissipate, but technological insights accelerate, who knows what solutions may be found?
Ultimately, however, these types of advances require massive sources of capital investment, and enough cushion to weather the typical 100+:1 loss ratios. Right now, we are simply eating our collective 'seed corn' to pay off certain political constituencies. It is these voters blocks who must be assuaged with continued salaries, benefits & health coverage to keep the current gang in power.
Thus the games with the Fed, Administration, Congress & MSM.
Leo:
Alright, so a "good point" is the conjecture that the job report was lowballed to prevent a rise in interest rates just ahead of next week's massive auction...
Tell me what exactly is "good" about fudging numbers deliberately to game a result, when we're talking about our government? What has happened to America?
Michelle Obama said that for the first time, she was proud of her country. I can say, this past year, at age 50, for the first time I am not proud of my country.
"Significant hiring"???
From what? Retail spending, at best, improved over the holidays 2.9%. Factory orders went up a mere 1.1% while wholesale inventories went up 1.5%.
All of which can be explained by the usual holiday bump. This year, those who could afford to buy are buying because - with looming hyper-inflation on the near-horizon - prices may never be this low again.
Yet with 4.2 million more unemployed this holiday season than last, there has to have been a significant spike in spending by those still employed to make up for the loss of spending by the newly unemployed.
With average hourly compensation up marginally in light of continued mass consumer and commercial de-leveraging, do you honestly think consumer spending will continue to not only maintain past the holidays but significantly increase in order to spur your "significant hiring"???
What are you smoking, anyway?
Perhaps with the cheapening dollar, you are looking for exports to drive the boat? Well, for exports to drive employment gains, that would mean foreigners will have to buy more US goods. But with retail spending volumes in the EU declining over 4% in the past month, how is that going to happen?
China or the rest of BRIC?
Better hope so. Cause it's beginning to look a LOT more like a commodity/credit/consumption bubble in China to me.
For the sake of all the unemployed (moi included), I hope you are correct.
I just don't believe it.
Sorry!
The November revision broke the string of consecutive job losses! Green shoots. I guess Mr. Kolivakis and others will tell us this was a better-than-expected report and we should buy, buy, buy.
Until Nov is revised again next month to negative, just like October took a hit this month.
Yes we added JOBS in November, Excellent... I'm so excited, be back going to the mall to celebrate :-)
Positive? The Bogus Birth/Death Model ADDED for November THIRTY THOUSAND PHANTOM JOBS.
Positive my ass!
If we slaughter ourselves in record numbers (going postal, internet suicide pacts) we can make those phantom Birth?death adjustments a reality. It's the New Patriotism.
Bingo! Green Shoots!
will they jam those census workers into the payroll numbers before state of the union?
I'm kind of disappointed that the numbers weren't good because I can no longer complain that the government is manipulating the numbers.
Sometimes honesty does happen, even from the Bureau of Lying Statistics
And you are presuming they aren't? I no longer believe anything due to the SPIN epidemic.
You're assuming it wasn't worse than reported, after some data massaging. What happens now is the January cleanout as businesses are again forced to downsize. Leo - you're smoking crack, buddy! What you meant to also say is that there is strong motivation to NOT fire or layoff in December - simple human feeling that the holidays are not a time to do layoffs if only because of morale problems among those who survive. Right now, NO ONE IS HIRING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. That is reality. The responsible thing to do is to hunker down for this quarter at the very least. Dude, get your head straight on this.
amen NZ.
I think ZeroHedge's L.K. (Leo Kolivakis) = CNBC's L.K. (Larry Krudlow) (sic)
Exactly, although he sounds much more like Cramer.
I can only agree with Ned with 2 anecdotes: A lady who worked over 22 years at a storage company was fired yesterday so the owners could keep cutting costs; I have no intentions on hiring anyone until MAYBE the end of this year, and more likely than not, anyone I do hire will ne P/Ted or 1099ed. I'm not overly optimistic about hiring at all, but we'll see.
Exactly what I was thinking.
Needless to say, I'm stunned by the report. How could TPTB allow Obama to go into the SotUA with such a large negative print?
because the real print is probably a larger negative number.
additionally, because it is so bad, gives fodder to obama and the dems to:
1. move forward with more deficit spending
2. move forward with "jobs" program (next in line, green tech mfring)
2A. move forward with cap and trade to generate tax revenue to fund 2.
3. move forward with more unemployment insurance as part of the Dem campaign fund for Nov, a particular hottie for President in Charge Rahm. (speaking of that, what the hell is going on with noted US Attorney Mr. Fitzgerald in Chicago???????)
4. move forward with health care reform because it will save so much money that the deficit and national debt is likely to disappear in a few years.
Guys, let's be real here.
a) If the numbers were good, then they are manipulating the numbers up so that the markets continue to go up.
b) If the numbers are bad, then they are hiding an even worse number.
You can't have it both ways! If you initially thought they were going to manipulate the numbers up, then after this report you can't claim that the numbers are worse and they are hiding it.
That is intellectually dishonest. You are basically bullshitting yourself, and manipulating everything to fit what you want to see. If you want to believe that the government is manipulating numbers, then just say so with a blanket statement "I don't give a fuck what they say, it's all bullshit." But coming up with these elaborate scenarios that fit your views is a joke.
I personally thought that they were going to manipulate the numbers up. Unfortunately, I bought into that last article where the numbers could be +300k.
Good point. As for myself, "I don't give a fuck what they say, it's all bullshit."
I am lost.
I think its perfectly reasonable to think that whatever reality really is...the estimates (and thats all they are...estimates of what is going on out there) are:
a) Honestly overstated at this time and will be corrected later as data becomes clearer
b) optimistically forecast at the edge of optimisim (as was the BLS methodology for 2009 which they now indicate was overstated by 840,000 during the year 2009)
c) Cleverly stated to the edge of believeability for the purposes of the politicians in charge
d) Outright manipulated
e) Understated and things are really better than anyone things or can triangulate with other data
I do not see why the two statements are not very plasubaly true
Weak NFP = more printing = weak dollar = strong stocks/commodities/gold/real estate.
When does the printing stop?
Excuse me, excuse me everybody---ADP announced earlier this week that the private employment sector lost 84,000 jobs in Dec. :
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/01/04/daily36.html
Please take one minute to click the link and read it for yourself.
Today the BLS confirmed the ADP report. There was nothing "unexpected". ADP has a monopoly on paychecks, and ought to know what the deal is.
i am afraid you got stuck with the bullshit...your
points a and b are the same - there is an upward
bias in the numbers.
at this point the best analysis is to compare
employment from eoy 2007 , 2008, 2009...the
macro trend is decidedly down....the point data
on m/m is static...
I can hear it now.
"We are making a slow recovery...blah blah...not as fast as we would like...blah blah...heroic Fed and government intervention is working...blah blah...we need to work harder...blah blah...more stimulus...blah blah...create more jobs...blah blah blah blah..."
Unless, of course, the actual losses were much, much more.
ATLAS IS SHRUGGING...
Go ahead boys, jack those interest rates up. Lets see if we can add 3-5% more to that unemployment rate. Oh ya, make double sure you, Uncle Sam, is now the biggest debtor before you jack them higher, just for added effect.
Looks like a certain Fed bank president is not going to be heard from much in the coming days...
"Hoenig, why don't you just stick a sock in it?"
Birth/Death number anyone?
The biggie will come early Feb.
It will not be a minus, I've got it in for a surprise addition of a couple of hundred thousand.
have a peachy keen day!
Rahm
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
"About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, an increase of 578,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey"
Little Johnny was signed up for 7 subjects in grade 12. Even though he didn't record a single mark for any of these subject, they were not counted as failures because he made no attempt to show up for any class and write any exam.
"They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey"
Gotta love the Holiday Season, when many Human Resource offices shutter up.
They needed this number to rebuff higher interest rate preassure on FED. Their job is like rope-walking. If they give too much optimism, then there will be more pressure for interest rate increase. If they tell the truth, stock market and the banks will be toast. Tough job. That's why Tim and Ben look like rope acrobats.
2010's bladerunners, snails walking on the edge of a razor blade
do Timmah and Ben dream of electric sheep?
Tim's got 30 year treasuries to sell next week, so he needs to downplay any signs of recovery.
So manufacturing employment decreased 27k...didn't the ISM Manufacturing Index give an employment reading of ~54 or so?
That's a contradiction, isn't it? I wonder who needs to change their survey methods...
ISM numbers less reliable than BLS and almost as bad as any "consumer sentiment" index.
Remember: Employment is a lagging indicator, unless it's positive, in which case it's "telling us something".
By the way, is Robert Barbera counted among the "employed", as in...he takes a salary for what he produces?
And that all accounts for the 2-4 days during December folks were allowed off for the holidays or is that all part of the seasonal adjustments?
And, in related news, the greenback tanked; gold shot up. So did Treasuries.
Hope they can get that balance transfer done concerning the debt limit.
How can a recession be over if Economy is losing Jobs? anyone.
Because the US Govt. says so?
Its supposed to be a "lagging indicator".
Its a Depression, BTW.
HAHAHHHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHHAHAA. Sorry Leo, I know it's cruel but couldn't resist.
Nice to have a raving bull/true believer on board to tell us what the public is thinking.
And Leo also thinks Greece is not in bad shape at all. I admire his optimism.
Pretty sure Iceman Mishkin was on his thesis committee at McGill.
you have to be cruel to be kind in the right
measure...
These statistics are lovingly coated in fudge.
The really bad # this monring was Wholesale inventories. An increase in WI will lead to huge discounts for retailers and another round of layoffs.
From the BLS web site (FAQs):
An over-the-month employment change of 107,000 is statistically significant in the establishment survey, while the threshold for a statistically significant change in the household survey is about 400,000.
So, by their own standards both the November and December 2009 NFP numbers are statistically insignificant. BTW, I am in agreement that, based on the explanation of the BLS seasonal adjustment models provided in the Stifel Nicholaus article the other day, the actual job losses for December were probably far worse. (Note: I did not parse the actual Dec 2009 report for the actual seasonal adjustments made.)
i have been pounding this point for months....folks
need to take a fucking statistics class or read
a good article on the subject and end all of this
fucktarded nonsense about monthly numbers changes...
-27,000 decline in manufacturing employment? margin
of error (sampling error) anyone? especially for
an economic zone with
several millions employed....do you really think
that that 27000 is material?....please people...
thanks for posting the information.
There were fewer government jobs, which implies that state and local governments are finally cutting. This could be a big drag on employment through 2010.
Can anyone explain why the 20 yr T-bond (TLT, TBT, etc) is virtually UNCHANGED today on numbers like these??
Jesus Christ. I need an algorithm just to figure out the unemployment number. They need to pass some legislation on how many times this number can be revised, adjusted, spun, ect..