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NFP Ex McDonalds And Birth Death: +7k

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Today's BLS of 244K is great... until you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with.... +7K jobs.

And yes, the "McDonalds factor" is to be included. Per Goldman:

McDonald’s Corporation said that it hired 62,000 people during an April 19 promotional event. Despite the striking number, we do not expect a major effect on nonfarm payroll employment. Last year, the industry referred to in the payroll statistics as “limited service restaurants” added 209,000 jobs during the seasonal upswing in employment from March through June in seasonally adjusted terms. Given that McDonald’s has a 17% market share of the US fast food market (as of 2009), around 35,000 of the new hires can be accounted for by seasonal variation. In addition, according to our equity analysts, US growth in the number of McDonald’s restaurants is limited. Therefore, it seems most likely that the hiring resulted from natural turnover and seasonal demand, rather than a broader business expansion. For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time.

A history of Birth Death adjustments which ultimately get washed out in the annual massive downward NFP revision which nobody really ever cares about though.

 

 

 


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Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:49 | Link to Comment LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Super sized recovery, bitchezzz

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | Link to Comment oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

Way too netagive!

  • 250K jobs is a quarter million!!
  • Adjust to whatever you want to but 250K more income and more money in the economy!
  • with commodity WAY TOO LOW QE3 HAS TO BE THERE!

 

SO BTFD!!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:05 | Link to Comment SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

Well if all it takes is a big number, then by God let's say it was +500k!  Thought we needed some tie to reality, but if that isn't a factor....

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:24 | Link to Comment mojine
mojine's picture

Say "big number" 3 times and "recovery" magically appears!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

More lies.  Gov't is full of shit.

Maybe the lack-lustre employment figures are due to "evil speculators"?

HA!  CNBS should do an hour story on it.  Maybe my cat would watch then.

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:24 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

62k new MacDs workers buying $5 gas to go to work - 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:06 | Link to Comment whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Mcdonalds forced to hire 62k since the Labor Dept is now after fast food joints for getting too many illegals ? aka Chipotle...

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:56 | Link to Comment andybev01
andybev01's picture

This explains how McD's got their health insurance exemption.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Hamburglar bitchez!

McDonalds Hamburger University - skool of economics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2jnzcq2w5o

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:47 | Link to Comment Silveroz
Silveroz's picture

For those of us concerned with facts, the McDonalds hiring likely isn't in this report since the reference week was the week before they hired.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:09 | Link to Comment pbmatthews
pbmatthews's picture

I hear President Soetoro is going to extend his US victory tour to Micky D's today and that he has scheduled a 2:00 PM press conference with the Hamburgler and Ronald McDonald.  

 

Winning!!!!!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment shushup
shushup's picture

lol

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:43 | Link to Comment insatiablegenius
insatiablegenius's picture

I think everyone is forgetting home depot did the same thing so let's add their numbers to the bunch.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

the spin is that 'the direction' is better than the 'condition'...my ass.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:09 | Link to Comment augie
augie's picture

you want some more spin?

From the BLS http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdqa.htm

Q: Can I subtract the birth/death adjustment from the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change to determine what it is adding to employment?

 

A: No.  Birth/death factors are a component of the not seasonally adjusted estimate and therefore are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes.  Instead, the birth/death factor should be assessed in the context of its effect on the not seasonally adjusted estimate.

 

It works, because they say it does. great logic, i wish i could use that on my finals.

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

 

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

time for another obama victory lap

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

We smoked the hopium and it changed.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

back out the 8K jobs added at BK and Wendys and you get -1K!

 

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:47 | Link to Comment depression
depression's picture

Four More Years Bitchezzzz !!!!

Obama FTW !

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:51 | Link to Comment hazenyc
hazenyc's picture

The NFP # just doesn't jive with the the unemployment rate and the dreadful jobless claims numbers from yesterday.. this helps put it in better prespective I suppose..

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | Link to Comment Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

McDonald's employee death rate just went through the roof!!!

Maybe they should install metal bars in the windows and invest in wrist cut proof cutlery

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

...or, tell their employees to stop eating their food.  tasty, but life threatening.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:57 | Link to Comment andybev01
andybev01's picture

+101

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:56 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

Is this being inferred or is it a certainty that these MCD hiring numbers are baked into this month's data?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:39 | Link to Comment X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Some portion is baked in, some portion is offset by seasonal adjustments.

I don't even know why we are debating this.  NFP is the most manipulated govt number out there, with CPI being a close second. 

Claims numbers give us a less adulterated view on where things are going... and its not pretty... and even that number is bullshit.

Ultimately, this bullshit is a good thing.  It gives us all more time to add to our hedges. (PM's, food, water, ammo).

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment jt17
jt17's picture

Ummm...the last two lines of the GS note says:

"For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time."

 

The meaning is pretty clear - the McD's hiring did NOT factor into the strong April numbers.  Don't be shocked when you see a strong May number next month, because that's when it will likely be reflected.

 

Just sayin'.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 11:16 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

The hiring day was 4/19.  I seriously doubt there was a long wait before their first day.  Most probably got their first paycheck before the end of the month.  Might not have been a two-week check, but I'm sure they were still on payroll.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | Link to Comment John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

That's great Tyler. Imagine 5 o'clock news running that headline. I bet half of this 7k are financial services of new hires out of college for Wall Street.

I guess the futures are excited that QE3 is needed after these beaut numbers came out.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | Link to Comment Jeremy Roenick
Jeremy Roenick's picture

Ok, at what point to the cheerleader economists finally admit we did not come out of the recession in 2009?  It seems obvious to anyone with a IQ over 50 that the economy is not growing and employers are not hiring.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

As of yesterday a whole bunch of smaller, regional bank CEO/CFOs say loan demand is almost non-existent and they're surviving off the spread between deposits and treasuries - even in Texas (PRSP) which has one of the better economies in the country.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Talked to the President of our local bank a few weeks ago.   Same story.   They still have a solid performing loan base, but the non-relenting slow-down in the economy keeps eating at the edges.

He knows of dual income families loosing one of the incomes and coming in to restructure or discuss options.  They are a community bank and are trying to work with them, but he has 'advised' some of them that if the real-eatate doesn't make sense, to preserve their savings and 'walk away'.

He hasn't seen anything like this in the 40+ years he's been in the banking industry

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:02 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All theyre worried about now is keeping the vast majority of americans who are total retards placated a bit longer. They think this is fun.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Precisely as last time, when a Depression is succinctly declared. Soon.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Justaman
Justaman's picture

Styles,

What do crickets sound like?  

You answered your own question, there are no economists with IQs over 50 (or at least any with common sense)!

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

    - Mark Twain/Benjamin Disraeli

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:52 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

the birth/death adjustment is fairly high, and the household was actually -190k.  Last time we had such a big discrepancy this direction was in October.  That was followed by 3 weak NFP's.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Spike the ball bitchez!

 

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | Link to Comment wang
wang's picture

Just now on Bloomberg Bill Gross being interviewed:

Bill was QE2 a good idea and was it effective?

I think it was and I think the intention of "the bernank" ...

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:57 | Link to Comment augie
augie's picture

since when is mc'diabetes a resturant?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Birth/death is the net amount of new business filings, right?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Quintus
Quintus's picture

No it is a politically influenced plug figure to produce the 'Right' NFP number masquerading as a scientific estimate of the number of net jobs gained or lost in businesses which have not yet been reported.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I'm sure McDonalds got a sweet heart of a deal for their big hiring promotion. God help us if it's the fast food industry leading the recovery.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Not a problem.  A little financial engineering, a few multi-billion dollar CFOFOs (Collateralized Filet O'Fish Obligations), and we can lever that McDonalds hiring into a sizeable bonus pool for the street, and this economy will take off like a rocket!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:59 | Link to Comment ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

 

The only activity the government does is pacify the majority of the population using false statistics and promises of a better future so that the rest of the population does not lynch them and their masters, the bankers and the top industrialists, while they are robbing the taxpayers of everything that the taxpayers consume or save.

http://www­.marketora­cle.co.uk/­Article245­81.html

 

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:00 | Link to Comment lordcoke
lordcoke's picture

i dont believe any numbers anymore. im going to the compton swap meet for some capitalism.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:05 | Link to Comment augie
augie's picture

just make sure you bring your numbers .308 .556 and .45 with you... those are numbers i still believe in.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:26 | Link to Comment Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

agreed, but, mine are 7.62 and .40.   ;-)

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:32 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

No love for the .3006?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:50 | Link to Comment X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

 

Now that's a debate that could rage forever.

Forget the 9/11 conspiracy thing.

.270 or .30 '06?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment augie
augie's picture

how far do you have to hump the ammo? whats the range to target?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

 

Average hunter is not likely to take a shot at anything beyond 400 yards.

Average ZH paranoid schizophrenic (of which I am one) has never shot at anything or at best not at anything beyond 100 yards (I might be an exception to the rule).  .270 might  even be way too much.  .223 is always a little light on anything bigger than a ground hog.  .243 might be the best round technically speaking, just not a lot of supply.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:53 | Link to Comment augie
augie's picture

I definitely fit into that paranoid schizophrenic label as well. Beyond 100? Shit, last season i capped a doe within 20 yards of my blind right in the neck. I don't like to make animals suffer, whatever transfers the most energy to the target shocking its system the most is what i use. 180 grain .308 over kill if you're going for body shots but unless its a buck i always go for head or neck. Meat tastes better too.

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 11:22 | Link to Comment X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

 

At 20 yards, you could have put that doe down with a pistol!

From the stands/blinds I mostly bow hunt.  At 20 yards, that would be exceptionally messy.

whatever transfers the most energy to the target shocking its system the most is what i use.

I remember reading somewhere that the impact force of the bullet should be at least twice the weight of the target.

130 grain .270 probably equals something like 2,000 pounds at 200 yards.  Let's say your average take down is 200 yards.  If that math is right, a .270 is probably more than 10 times more gun than you need for most North American game and maybe 2 times the gun for the largest North American game.  At that range, the 130 grain .270 is flat at 200.  It has to be the most efficient round out there.

A 150 grain .308 probably has the same exact ballistics at those ranges, but it has some drop 200.

.270 = best, .308 = economically efficient equivalent... .30-06 equals a sore shoulder after a day at the range and the ammo is to damn expensive.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 15:19 | Link to Comment augie
augie's picture

heh messy is a good word for it. Always respect a bow hunter. I've been using a bowtech garudian for a few years now, haven't managed to kill anything yet, can't bare the thought of wounding the damn animals. I'd rather use a rifle. My buddy has a 300 winmag if you want to talk about sore shoulders...

 

happy hunting.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 17:14 | Link to Comment X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

 

I started shooting recurve and compound bows 22 years ago.  It takes a lifetime to master, so I'm no where near that and pretty rusty these days (wife and kids have the nasty effect of limiting my free time). 

Arrows are a blunt instrument so there really is nothing worse than wounding an animal that way.  But the technology gets better and better every year.

.300 winmag is a serious round.  I've never had a chance to shoot at something big enough to warrant that kind of a weapon.  Not that I'm recoil sensitive, but the bigger the bang, the more likely I am to go wide.

That said, I've always wanted to fire a .50 BMG.  Outside of millitary applications, it has no real purpose, but it would be fucking awesome to hit a cynderblock from a mile away.

Happy hunting to you too.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

I'll stir the pot:

.308/7.62, .30-06 springfield, and the .270 winchester make the same exact hole in things.

.270 is flatter than .30 06, less recoil and therefore more accurate in longer ranges.  End of discussion.

But the almighty .308/7.62 is perhaps the cheapest centerfire round on the market and in the zombie apocalypse, there will be crates of them lying around.  .308 is king.

All three of these rounds can kill anything alive in the lower 48.  Go with the .308.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:59 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And if you add the initial claims, then it's -470k jobs.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

didnt see goolsbee or obama talking about those #s

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:59 | Link to Comment somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

don't forget out of those remaining less than 7k after BK and Wendy's they are probably Taco Bell, KFC, BofA-ML, Citi

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:02 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Tyler, how dare you try and correlate economics with the laws of Nature and physics!  TPTB can "make" Nature do whatever they want, buy the fucking dip already and support the ponzi!  (do I really have to use the sarcasm flags?)

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:02 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

The jobs of tomorrow to keep us competitive-- I guess you have to start somewhere and flipping burgers is the traditional jumping point into the real work force.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment zman78
zman78's picture

Unbelievable how long they are pushing this ponzi and the fact that the investing public is buying it.  Unfortunately we are due for some type of short term (maybe only 1 day) rally and this is the impetus it needs.  Starting to see a disconnect though as some commodities like crude and silver still falling while dollar went up off the news release (as did the ES).

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

But 4 REALLY good jobs were added.....with corner offices, expense accounts and everything.....these are bankruptcy attorneys but hot dam they have a good job....

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Barry must be really happy - his "original" birth certificate has surfaced, he's binned bin Laden and he's got a quarter of a million jobs todays - oh joy, the next Presidency beckons...

DavidC

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:02 | Link to Comment Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

"You want fries with that?" = New Norm

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment zman78
zman78's picture

Bernanke is finally having his unilateral wet dream...Higher equities and lower crude.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

MCD is as government subsidized as JPM.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:08 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

the 99ers who are off UE are all starting businesses that's the Obuma miracle

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:06 | Link to Comment King Durian
King Durian's picture

So let me see if I got this straight.

Assuming a rough estimation of 300,000,000 Americans, and assuming 200,000,000 are actually eligible to work..that means that the odds of an American getting a job this last month was the same as this: 1 in 28571.

Let's assume for simplicity here that 10% of Americans within that 200,000,000 actively want work. So 20 million.

Taking the 28571 odd of finding a job, that means 1 in 700 successfully found work.

 

Now, I'm not on the ground in America, so I can only know from statistics like this. Is it possible that only 1 out 700 Americans who wanted work last month found it???

 

 

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:23 | Link to Comment earnulf
earnulf's picture

No only straight, but damn straight.    Low level, manual labor, minimum wage jobs can be found at pet food processors, CAFO operations and some warehouse operations, first come, first serve.   Liveable wages (to cover food, fuel, utilities, clothing, etc) are harder to come by and generally you must be young (under 30), in good health, with your own transportation and be willing to work for little or no benefits (medical insurance, life insurance, 401K).

Wife has been out of work for 1.3 years now, can't find an office job (she's over 50) after working since she was 22 (college grad).

But we are "Winning The Future".   I like that, WTF!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Sorry to hear about your wife, earnulf. Has she looked beyond office jobs? Has she considered retail or other non-physical-labor possibilities? I'm just wondering how broadly she has been searching.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment cabernet
cabernet's picture

No doubt about it. The job seen is very weak. While jobs at McDonald's are not the best, they are great for those entering the job market for the first time. I had a job like this as a youngster, so I do not discount these jobs as much as others might. On the plus side, manufacturing jobs appear to be in an uptrend. Manufacturing tends to pay more, slows down imports and creates products for export. All good. I am hoping for more job improvement going forward. The participation rate is very troubling however as it really shows how weak the market is these days.

http://www.TheAngryGrapes.Com

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

This is a perfect play to get reatail and small guys back in the market before crushing them whole hearted.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment brian0918
brian0918's picture

This is not completely accurate, because you are comparing a seasonally-adjusted number (NFP) to a non-seasonally-adjusted number (birth/death), which the BLS says is not comparable in their FAQ.

Conveniently, the BLS also does not release a birth/death adjustment that is seasonally adjusted, nor can I find anywhere the non-seasonally-adjusted NFP number.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:55 | Link to Comment M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

Table B1.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

SA and NSA figures are there. In the SA column, April 2011 minus March 2011= 244K
In the NSA column, (April'11) - (March'11) = 1.169 million. Subtract B/D figures and you'd have 994,000 NSA.

To convert this to a SA number is quite a bit more difficult. The BLS uses the X-12 ARIMA software to perform the necessary regressions and calculations. If you are interested and have some technical skills in this area, you can d/l the software for PC/Mac/Linux here:

http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/

direct link for PC here:

http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/x12downv03_pc.html

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

The government reported employment numbers again come from George Orwell’s world. There are two different surveys used to report this crap. The headline is that we “CREATED” 244,000 jobs in April. Total bullshit. Here is a link to the BLS Birth/Death adjustment for April.

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

The government has no idea whether small businesses have added or subtracted workers, so they have a model that guesses what happened. Shockingly, it has guessed too high by MILLIONS of jobs over the last three years. Over on Calculated Risk this morning was this info:

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release their April survey on Tuesday, May 10th. Here is a pre-release of the employment results from NFIB: NFIB Jobs Statement: Hiring Trends Inconsistent and Disappointing

“Four months into 2011, the trajectory for small-business hiring appears inconsistent and disappointing. February and March gave us some hope, but in April, the average number of net new jobs slipped from 0.17 per firm to 0.04. With fewer increases in new hires and more reports of shrinkage in workforces, we can expect the April job numbers to be a disappointment.

Drilling down into the (seasonally adjusted) numbers:

• 8 percent of those surveyed increased employment;
• 15 percent reduced employment; and,
• 14 percent reported unfilled job openings, down 1 point from last month.

 

“And the outlook for future employment growth remains unchanged from March: Only 16 percent plan to increase employment, and 6 percent plan to reduce their workforce, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 2 percent of owners planning to create new jobs in the next three months.

 

This info says that small businesses are decreasing employment but the government says they added 175,000 jobs in April. The 244,000 number is complete and utter bullshit.

 

The real numbers are on this part of the BLS website.

 

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea03.htm

 

Here is what is really happening:

  • The number of employed Americans DROPPED by 190,000 in April versus March
  • The number of officially unemployed went up by 205,000 and at the same time another 131,000 people left the workforce because things are soooo good.
  • The official unemployment rate went up to 9%
  • Since last April, the working age population went up by 1.8 million, but somehow the civilian labor force declined by 1.1 million. George Orwell is spinning in his grave.
  • There are only 292,000 more people employed today than last April, but Obama claims that millions of new jobs have been created. The Bigger the Lie, the more likely the masses will believe.
  • Even though only 292,000 more people are employed, the number of unemployed dropped by 1.4 million in the last year. WOW!!! What happened to these people? Were they beamed up to Mars.
  • No. It seems that things in the country are so great that 2.9 million people have voluntarily left the labor force in the last year. 

These employment statistics are beyond laughable. Reality is that unemployment is north of 20%. The stock market doesn’t care. It will rally on this fake data, but the people who are unemployed know differently.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

So if I register a new business and that business happens to be a lemonade stand, would I get counted in the birth/death adjustment?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

If a drunk driver ran you over while serving lemonade that probably yes

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Haven't you read the story about the fellow trying to open up a lemonade stand and could not complete all the regulatory garbage:

http://blogs.findlaw.com/legally_weird/2010/08/kids-lemonade-stand-shut-...

It is virtually impossible to open up a small business because the too big to fail businesses and unions have gotten the government to regulate away any hope for small business competition.  Think about trying to start a car company today.  In the 20s and thirties, remember all the little car companies until FDR and his union buddies took over.  More modern examples abound.  IBM got Daniel Patrick Moynahan to write a low making it illegal to be a contract programmer unless you were part of a larger business.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Kina
Kina's picture

I believe each McDonalds job comes with a selection of Food Stamps.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Well, this is a net number (I believe), so more than that found jobs.  Also, you should compare to the number looking (your 20MM figure), not those eligible, as 90% of them are working (per your example).  Still crummy though

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:21 | Link to Comment Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:18 | Link to Comment shushup
shushup's picture

Apparently the people who trade the futures either do not understand this, don't care or like any job no matter how little it pays.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:18 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

I am sure MSM will report this just the way Tyler did. Yup, trust is high.

 

rigghhtt.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

ZH gets a shout out:

Latest News From RAN Squawk
05-06 09:17: Zero Hedge writes NFP Ex-McDonalds And Birth Death: +7k

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I loves me some ZH!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

But, the headline employment rate increased from 8.8% to 9%.  Thanks to McDonalds!  USA, Fuck Yeah!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mcdonalds-hires-62000-turns-away-over-938000-applicants-minimum-wage-part-time-jobs

I would like to make a prediction that a large number of those 938,000 will drop out of the unemployment statistics soon.  Why?  If you can't get a job at McDonalds then how could you possibly justify not reverting back to the 'discouraged' category.  Headline unemployment will drop to 8.5% soon. 

Also, I would look for other PPACA (Obamacare) exempt US companies (read McDonalds) to hire minimum wage workers in May.  This is the 2011 version of last years Census hiring. 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:45 | Link to Comment X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Ahh the census numbers... that was good stuff.  The masters will never cease to amaze with their creative ways of lulling the sheep.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Wall Street has a Pollyanna complex! This will ultimately end in tears!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Tyler, Why do you insist on confusing us with the facts.  I would be much easier if I could just listen to CNBC and buy the dips.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

Why does ZH always do this? The 244,000 figure is Seasonally Adjusted. The Birth/Death model figures are Not Seasonally Adjusted. You can't just subtract the B/D figure directly like that.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 17:51 | Link to Comment alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

i think the answer to that is obvious:  if you want to earn from internet advertising, you have to have traffic on your site, and the easiest way to get traffic is scandalise.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

It seems that the McDonalds number were AFTER the cut-off for NFP

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:39 | Link to Comment 2DollarBill
2DollarBill's picture

I don't know who to believe anymore.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Pez
Pez's picture

Well at least you know who NOT to believe.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment WhOracle
WhOracle's picture

GS , MS , DB all say McDo will show in May leisure.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Traders in the office laughing at this hit piece.

 

Bottom line, report was ok.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

That's because Wall Street lives on another planet than Main Street.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:55 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

Except that the UE rate increased to 9%.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Blano
Blano's picture

Last time McD's was discussed here, the thread was so long I had to go hit the dollar menu after.  Stop already.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:00 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Here's my barometer -

I live in suburbia with a 48-mile commute to and through one of the most commercial regions of the country.

My commute time has steadily dropped in the past 6 mos.  Used to be tough to do it in 70 minutes, now it's regularly 55-60. 

No traffic congestion.  No one working. 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Excellent analysis, Tyler
It isn't called the B(L)S for nothing:

  1. 4 million unemployed who are not labeled unemployed (see: Marginally attached and discouraged)...
  2. Ludicrous reductions in Labor force participation...
  3. Birth of small businesses that don't exist...
  4. Barry Soetoro's favorite "Lie By Constant Revision"...
Fri, 05/06/2011 - 17:48 | Link to Comment alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

i hate to have to be the one to tell you this, but people who are not employed and not looking for work, are excluded from the definition of 'unemployed' in all countries.  that is standard.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Duude
Duude's picture

McDonalds was a big beneficiary of the Obamacare waiver program. Perhaps, if all business had a waiver we'd get more people back to work. Ah, there's a thought.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:57 | Link to Comment djsmps
djsmps's picture

+7K must be extremely bullish.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 14:16 | Link to Comment ggnore
ggnore's picture

This article was just mentioned on the Rush Limbaugh show, lol.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 15:09 | Link to Comment Johnk
Johnk's picture

Anybody post this yet?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/employment-dirty-little-secret-and-more.html

 

"First, anyone who adds (or subtracts) the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) birth/death model numbers from the headline SA payroll employment is clueless. Someone sent me this "analysis" today: "... you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with.... +7K jobs". That is complete nonsense. The key issue with the birth/death model is it misses turning points; otherwise it is an important part of the monthly estimate."

You don't usually see that kind of arrogance from CR.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 17:53 | Link to Comment alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

dont worry about it but the McDonalds hirings were not in this month's data.

 

edit: just realised that this point was made a number of times above.

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