NFP Ex McDonalds And Birth Death: +7k

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's BLS of 244K is great... until you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with.... +7K jobs.

And yes, the "McDonalds factor" is to be included. Per Goldman:

McDonald’s Corporation said that it hired 62,000 people during an April 19 promotional event. Despite the striking number, we do not expect a major effect on nonfarm payroll employment. Last year, the industry referred to in the payroll statistics as “limited service restaurants” added 209,000 jobs during the seasonal upswing in employment from March through June in seasonally adjusted terms. Given that McDonald’s has a 17% market share of the US fast food market (as of 2009), around 35,000 of the new hires can be accounted for by seasonal variation. In addition, according to our equity analysts, US growth in the number of McDonald’s restaurants is limited. Therefore, it seems most likely that the hiring resulted from natural turnover and seasonal demand, rather than a broader business expansion. For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time.

A history of Birth Death adjustments which ultimately get washed out in the annual massive downward NFP revision which nobody really ever cares about though.

 

 

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LRC Fan's picture

Super sized recovery, bitchezzz

oh_bama's picture

Way too netagive!

  • 250K jobs is a quarter million!!
  • Adjust to whatever you want to but 250K more income and more money in the economy!
  • with commodity WAY TOO LOW QE3 HAS TO BE THERE!

 

SO BTFD!!

SWCroaker's picture

Well if all it takes is a big number, then by God let's say it was +500k!  Thought we needed some tie to reality, but if that isn't a factor....

mojine's picture

Say "big number" 3 times and "recovery" magically appears!

nope-1004's picture

More lies.  Gov't is full of shit.

Maybe the lack-lustre employment figures are due to "evil speculators"?

HA!  CNBS should do an hour story on it.  Maybe my cat would watch then.

 

NOTW777's picture

62k new MacDs workers buying $5 gas to go to work - 

whatsinaname's picture

Mcdonalds forced to hire 62k since the Labor Dept is now after fast food joints for getting too many illegals ? aka Chipotle...

andybev01's picture

This explains how McD's got their health insurance exemption.

Dejean Splicer's picture

Hamburglar bitchez!

McDonalds Hamburger University - skool of economics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2jnzcq2w5o

Silveroz's picture

For those of us concerned with facts, the McDonalds hiring likely isn't in this report since the reference week was the week before they hired.

pbmatthews's picture

I hear President Soetoro is going to extend his US victory tour to Micky D's today and that he has scheduled a 2:00 PM press conference with the Hamburgler and Ronald McDonald.  

 

Winning!!!!!

insatiablegenius's picture

I think everyone is forgetting home depot did the same thing so let's add their numbers to the bunch.

Xibalba's picture

the spin is that 'the direction' is better than the 'condition'...my ass.

augie's picture

you want some more spin?

From the BLS http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdqa.htm

Q: Can I subtract the birth/death adjustment from the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change to determine what it is adding to employment?

 

A: No.  Birth/death factors are a component of the not seasonally adjusted estimate and therefore are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes.  Instead, the birth/death factor should be assessed in the context of its effect on the not seasonally adjusted estimate.

 

It works, because they say it does. great logic, i wish i could use that on my finals.

 

HedgeFundLIVE's picture

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

HedgeFundLIVE's picture

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

HedgeFundLIVE's picture

 

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

 

NOTW777's picture

time for another obama victory lap

Dejean Splicer's picture

We smoked the hopium and it changed.

101 years and counting's picture

back out the 8K jobs added at BK and Wendys and you get -1K!

 

 

depression's picture

Four More Years Bitchezzzz !!!!

Obama FTW !

hazenyc's picture

The NFP # just doesn't jive with the the unemployment rate and the dreadful jobless claims numbers from yesterday.. this helps put it in better prespective I suppose..

Azannoth's picture

McDonald's employee death rate just went through the roof!!!

Maybe they should install metal bars in the windows and invest in wrist cut proof cutlery

101 years and counting's picture

...or, tell their employees to stop eating their food.  tasty, but life threatening.

Mercury's picture

Is this being inferred or is it a certainty that these MCD hiring numbers are baked into this month's data?

X. Kurt OSis's picture

Some portion is baked in, some portion is offset by seasonal adjustments.

I don't even know why we are debating this.  NFP is the most manipulated govt number out there, with CPI being a close second. 

Claims numbers give us a less adulterated view on where things are going... and its not pretty... and even that number is bullshit.

Ultimately, this bullshit is a good thing.  It gives us all more time to add to our hedges. (PM's, food, water, ammo).

 

jt17's picture

Ummm...the last two lines of the GS note says:

"For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time."

 

The meaning is pretty clear - the McD's hiring did NOT factor into the strong April numbers.  Don't be shocked when you see a strong May number next month, because that's when it will likely be reflected.

 

Just sayin'.

-Michelle-'s picture

The hiring day was 4/19.  I seriously doubt there was a long wait before their first day.  Most probably got their first paycheck before the end of the month.  Might not have been a two-week check, but I'm sure they were still on payroll.

John McCloy's picture

That's great Tyler. Imagine 5 o'clock news running that headline. I bet half of this 7k are financial services of new hires out of college for Wall Street.

I guess the futures are excited that QE3 is needed after these beaut numbers came out.

Jeremy Roenick's picture

Ok, at what point to the cheerleader economists finally admit we did not come out of the recession in 2009?  It seems obvious to anyone with a IQ over 50 that the economy is not growing and employers are not hiring.

Mercury's picture

As of yesterday a whole bunch of smaller, regional bank CEO/CFOs say loan demand is almost non-existent and they're surviving off the spread between deposits and treasuries - even in Texas (PRSP) which has one of the better economies in the country.

Sophist Economicus's picture

Talked to the President of our local bank a few weeks ago.   Same story.   They still have a solid performing loan base, but the non-relenting slow-down in the economy keeps eating at the edges.

He knows of dual income families loosing one of the incomes and coming in to restructure or discuss options.  They are a community bank and are trying to work with them, but he has 'advised' some of them that if the real-eatate doesn't make sense, to preserve their savings and 'walk away'.

He hasn't seen anything like this in the 40+ years he's been in the banking industry

SheepDog-One's picture

All theyre worried about now is keeping the vast majority of americans who are total retards placated a bit longer. They think this is fun.

SilverDOG's picture

Precisely as last time, when a Depression is succinctly declared. Soon.

Justaman's picture

Styles,

What do crickets sound like?  

You answered your own question, there are no economists with IQs over 50 (or at least any with common sense)!

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

    - Mark Twain/Benjamin Disraeli

oogs66's picture

the birth/death adjustment is fairly high, and the household was actually -190k.  Last time we had such a big discrepancy this direction was in October.  That was followed by 3 weak NFP's.

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Spike the ball bitchez!

 

 

augie's picture

since when is mc'diabetes a resturant?

Johnny Lawrence's picture

Birth/death is the net amount of new business filings, right?

Quintus's picture

No it is a politically influenced plug figure to produce the 'Right' NFP number masquerading as a scientific estimate of the number of net jobs gained or lost in businesses which have not yet been reported.

Silverhog's picture

I'm sure McDonalds got a sweet heart of a deal for their big hiring promotion. God help us if it's the fast food industry leading the recovery.

Anonymouse's picture

Not a problem.  A little financial engineering, a few multi-billion dollar CFOFOs (Collateralized Filet O'Fish Obligations), and we can lever that McDonalds hiring into a sizeable bonus pool for the street, and this economy will take off like a rocket!

ak_khanna's picture

 

The only activity the government does is pacify the majority of the population using false statistics and promises of a better future so that the rest of the population does not lynch them and their masters, the bankers and the top industrialists, while they are robbing the taxpayers of everything that the taxpayers consume or save.

http://www­.marketora­cle.co.uk/­Article245­81.html

 

 

lordcoke's picture

i dont believe any numbers anymore. im going to the compton swap meet for some capitalism.

augie's picture

just make sure you bring your numbers .308 .556 and .45 with you... those are numbers i still believe in.

Vergeltung's picture

agreed, but, mine are 7.62 and .40.   ;-)

 

X. Kurt OSis's picture

 

Now that's a debate that could rage forever.

Forget the 9/11 conspiracy thing.

.270 or .30 '06?