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NFP Ex McDonalds And Birth Death: +7k
Today's BLS of 244K is great... until you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with.... +7K jobs.
And yes, the "McDonalds factor" is to be included. Per Goldman:
McDonald’s Corporation said that it hired 62,000 people during an April 19 promotional event. Despite the striking number, we do not expect a major effect on nonfarm payroll employment. Last year, the industry referred to in the payroll statistics as “limited service restaurants” added 209,000 jobs during the seasonal upswing in employment from March through June in seasonally adjusted terms. Given that McDonald’s has a 17% market share of the US fast food market (as of 2009), around 35,000 of the new hires can be accounted for by seasonal variation. In addition, according to our equity analysts, US growth in the number of McDonald’s restaurants is limited. Therefore, it seems most likely that the hiring resulted from natural turnover and seasonal demand, rather than a broader business expansion. For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time.
A history of Birth Death adjustments which ultimately get washed out in the annual massive downward NFP revision which nobody really ever cares about though.
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Super sized recovery, bitchezzz
Way too netagive!
SO BTFD!!
Well if all it takes is a big number, then by God let's say it was +500k! Thought we needed some tie to reality, but if that isn't a factor....
Say "big number" 3 times and "recovery" magically appears!
More lies. Gov't is full of shit.
Maybe the lack-lustre employment figures are due to "evil speculators"?
HA! CNBS should do an hour story on it. Maybe my cat would watch then.
62k new MacDs workers buying $5 gas to go to work -
Mcdonalds forced to hire 62k since the Labor Dept is now after fast food joints for getting too many illegals ? aka Chipotle...
This explains how McD's got their health insurance exemption.
Hamburglar bitchez!
McDonalds Hamburger University - skool of economics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2jnzcq2w5o
For those of us concerned with facts, the McDonalds hiring likely isn't in this report since the reference week was the week before they hired.
I hear President Soetoro is going to extend his US victory tour to Micky D's today and that he has scheduled a 2:00 PM press conference with the Hamburgler and Ronald McDonald.
Winning!!!!!
lol
I think everyone is forgetting home depot did the same thing so let's add their numbers to the bunch.
the spin is that 'the direction' is better than the 'condition'...my ass.
you want some more spin?
From the BLS http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdqa.htm
It works, because they say it does. great logic, i wish i could use that on my finals.
eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks
eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks
eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks
time for another obama victory lap
We smoked the hopium and it changed.
back out the 8K jobs added at BK and Wendys and you get -1K!
Four More Years Bitchezzzz !!!!
Obama FTW !
The NFP # just doesn't jive with the the unemployment rate and the dreadful jobless claims numbers from yesterday.. this helps put it in better prespective I suppose..
McDonald's employee death rate just went through the roof!!!
Maybe they should install metal bars in the windows and invest in wrist cut proof cutlery
...or, tell their employees to stop eating their food. tasty, but life threatening.
+101
Is this being inferred or is it a certainty that these MCD hiring numbers are baked into this month's data?
Some portion is baked in, some portion is offset by seasonal adjustments.
I don't even know why we are debating this. NFP is the most manipulated govt number out there, with CPI being a close second.
Claims numbers give us a less adulterated view on where things are going... and its not pretty... and even that number is bullshit.
Ultimately, this bullshit is a good thing. It gives us all more time to add to our hedges. (PM's, food, water, ammo).
Ummm...the last two lines of the GS note says:
"For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time."
The meaning is pretty clear - the McD's hiring did NOT factor into the strong April numbers. Don't be shocked when you see a strong May number next month, because that's when it will likely be reflected.
Just sayin'.
The hiring day was 4/19. I seriously doubt there was a long wait before their first day. Most probably got their first paycheck before the end of the month. Might not have been a two-week check, but I'm sure they were still on payroll.
That's great Tyler. Imagine 5 o'clock news running that headline. I bet half of this 7k are financial services of new hires out of college for Wall Street.
I guess the futures are excited that QE3 is needed after these beaut numbers came out.
Ok, at what point to the cheerleader economists finally admit we did not come out of the recession in 2009? It seems obvious to anyone with a IQ over 50 that the economy is not growing and employers are not hiring.
As of yesterday a whole bunch of smaller, regional bank CEO/CFOs say loan demand is almost non-existent and they're surviving off the spread between deposits and treasuries - even in Texas (PRSP) which has one of the better economies in the country.
Talked to the President of our local bank a few weeks ago. Same story. They still have a solid performing loan base, but the non-relenting slow-down in the economy keeps eating at the edges.
He knows of dual income families loosing one of the incomes and coming in to restructure or discuss options. They are a community bank and are trying to work with them, but he has 'advised' some of them that if the real-eatate doesn't make sense, to preserve their savings and 'walk away'.
He hasn't seen anything like this in the 40+ years he's been in the banking industry
All theyre worried about now is keeping the vast majority of americans who are total retards placated a bit longer. They think this is fun.
Precisely as last time, when a Depression is succinctly declared. Soon.
Styles,
What do crickets sound like?
You answered your own question, there are no economists with IQs over 50 (or at least any with common sense)!
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
- Mark Twain/Benjamin Disraeli
the birth/death adjustment is fairly high, and the household was actually -190k. Last time we had such a big discrepancy this direction was in October. That was followed by 3 weak NFP's.
Spike the ball bitchez!
Just now on Bloomberg Bill Gross being interviewed:
Bill was QE2 a good idea and was it effective?
I think it was and I think the intention of "the bernank" ...
since when is mc'diabetes a resturant?
Birth/death is the net amount of new business filings, right?
No it is a politically influenced plug figure to produce the 'Right' NFP number masquerading as a scientific estimate of the number of net jobs gained or lost in businesses which have not yet been reported.
I'm sure McDonalds got a sweet heart of a deal for their big hiring promotion. God help us if it's the fast food industry leading the recovery.
Not a problem. A little financial engineering, a few multi-billion dollar CFOFOs (Collateralized Filet O'Fish Obligations), and we can lever that McDonalds hiring into a sizeable bonus pool for the street, and this economy will take off like a rocket!
The only activity the government does is pacify the majority of the population using false statistics and promises of a better future so that the rest of the population does not lynch them and their masters, the bankers and the top industrialists, while they are robbing the taxpayers of everything that the taxpayers consume or save.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
i dont believe any numbers anymore. im going to the compton swap meet for some capitalism.
just make sure you bring your numbers .308 .556 and .45 with you... those are numbers i still believe in.
agreed, but, mine are 7.62 and .40. ;-)
No love for the .3006?
Now that's a debate that could rage forever.
Forget the 9/11 conspiracy thing.
.270 or .30 '06?
how far do you have to hump the ammo? whats the range to target?
Average hunter is not likely to take a shot at anything beyond 400 yards.
Average ZH paranoid schizophrenic (of which I am one) has never shot at anything or at best not at anything beyond 100 yards (I might be an exception to the rule). .270 might even be way too much. .223 is always a little light on anything bigger than a ground hog. .243 might be the best round technically speaking, just not a lot of supply.
I definitely fit into that paranoid schizophrenic label as well. Beyond 100? Shit, last season i capped a doe within 20 yards of my blind right in the neck. I don't like to make animals suffer, whatever transfers the most energy to the target shocking its system the most is what i use. 180 grain .308 over kill if you're going for body shots but unless its a buck i always go for head or neck. Meat tastes better too.
At 20 yards, you could have put that doe down with a pistol!
From the stands/blinds I mostly bow hunt. At 20 yards, that would be exceptionally messy.
I remember reading somewhere that the impact force of the bullet should be at least twice the weight of the target.
130 grain .270 probably equals something like 2,000 pounds at 200 yards. Let's say your average take down is 200 yards. If that math is right, a .270 is probably more than 10 times more gun than you need for most North American game and maybe 2 times the gun for the largest North American game. At that range, the 130 grain .270 is flat at 200. It has to be the most efficient round out there.
A 150 grain .308 probably has the same exact ballistics at those ranges, but it has some drop 200.
.270 = best, .308 = economically efficient equivalent... .30-06 equals a sore shoulder after a day at the range and the ammo is to damn expensive.
heh messy is a good word for it. Always respect a bow hunter. I've been using a bowtech garudian for a few years now, haven't managed to kill anything yet, can't bare the thought of wounding the damn animals. I'd rather use a rifle. My buddy has a 300 winmag if you want to talk about sore shoulders...
happy hunting.
I started shooting recurve and compound bows 22 years ago. It takes a lifetime to master, so I'm no where near that and pretty rusty these days (wife and kids have the nasty effect of limiting my free time).
Arrows are a blunt instrument so there really is nothing worse than wounding an animal that way. But the technology gets better and better every year.
.300 winmag is a serious round. I've never had a chance to shoot at something big enough to warrant that kind of a weapon. Not that I'm recoil sensitive, but the bigger the bang, the more likely I am to go wide.
That said, I've always wanted to fire a .50 BMG. Outside of millitary applications, it has no real purpose, but it would be fucking awesome to hit a cynderblock from a mile away.
Happy hunting to you too.
I'll stir the pot:
.308/7.62, .30-06 springfield, and the .270 winchester make the same exact hole in things.
.270 is flatter than .30 06, less recoil and therefore more accurate in longer ranges. End of discussion.
But the almighty .308/7.62 is perhaps the cheapest centerfire round on the market and in the zombie apocalypse, there will be crates of them lying around. .308 is king.
All three of these rounds can kill anything alive in the lower 48. Go with the .308.
And if you add the initial claims, then it's -470k jobs.
didnt see goolsbee or obama talking about those #s
don't forget out of those remaining less than 7k after BK and Wendy's they are probably Taco Bell, KFC, BofA-ML, Citi
Tyler, how dare you try and correlate economics with the laws of Nature and physics! TPTB can "make" Nature do whatever they want, buy the fucking dip already and support the ponzi! (do I really have to use the sarcasm flags?)
The jobs of tomorrow to keep us competitive-- I guess you have to start somewhere and flipping burgers is the traditional jumping point into the real work force.
Unbelievable how long they are pushing this ponzi and the fact that the investing public is buying it. Unfortunately we are due for some type of short term (maybe only 1 day) rally and this is the impetus it needs. Starting to see a disconnect though as some commodities like crude and silver still falling while dollar went up off the news release (as did the ES).
But 4 REALLY good jobs were added.....with corner offices, expense accounts and everything.....these are bankruptcy attorneys but hot dam they have a good job....
Barry must be really happy - his "original" birth certificate has surfaced, he's binned bin Laden and he's got a quarter of a million jobs todays - oh joy, the next Presidency beckons...
DavidC
"You want fries with that?" = New Norm
Bernanke is finally having his unilateral wet dream...Higher equities and lower crude.
MCD is as government subsidized as JPM.
the 99ers who are off UE are all starting businesses that's the Obuma miracle
So let me see if I got this straight.
Assuming a rough estimation of 300,000,000 Americans, and assuming 200,000,000 are actually eligible to work..that means that the odds of an American getting a job this last month was the same as this: 1 in 28571.
Let's assume for simplicity here that 10% of Americans within that 200,000,000 actively want work. So 20 million.
Taking the 28571 odd of finding a job, that means 1 in 700 successfully found work.
Now, I'm not on the ground in America, so I can only know from statistics like this. Is it possible that only 1 out 700 Americans who wanted work last month found it???
No only straight, but damn straight. Low level, manual labor, minimum wage jobs can be found at pet food processors, CAFO operations and some warehouse operations, first come, first serve. Liveable wages (to cover food, fuel, utilities, clothing, etc) are harder to come by and generally you must be young (under 30), in good health, with your own transportation and be willing to work for little or no benefits (medical insurance, life insurance, 401K).
Wife has been out of work for 1.3 years now, can't find an office job (she's over 50) after working since she was 22 (college grad).
But we are "Winning The Future". I like that, WTF!
Sorry to hear about your wife, earnulf. Has she looked beyond office jobs? Has she considered retail or other non-physical-labor possibilities? I'm just wondering how broadly she has been searching.
No doubt about it. The job seen is very weak. While jobs at McDonald's are not the best, they are great for those entering the job market for the first time. I had a job like this as a youngster, so I do not discount these jobs as much as others might. On the plus side, manufacturing jobs appear to be in an uptrend. Manufacturing tends to pay more, slows down imports and creates products for export. All good. I am hoping for more job improvement going forward. The participation rate is very troubling however as it really shows how weak the market is these days.
http://www.TheAngryGrapes.Com
This is a perfect play to get reatail and small guys back in the market before crushing them whole hearted.
This is not completely accurate, because you are comparing a seasonally-adjusted number (NFP) to a non-seasonally-adjusted number (birth/death), which the BLS says is not comparable in their FAQ.
Conveniently, the BLS also does not release a birth/death adjustment that is seasonally adjusted, nor can I find anywhere the non-seasonally-adjusted NFP number.
Table B1.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
SA and NSA figures are there. In the SA column, April 2011 minus March 2011= 244K
In the NSA column, (April'11) - (March'11) = 1.169 million. Subtract B/D figures and you'd have 994,000 NSA.
To convert this to a SA number is quite a bit more difficult. The BLS uses the X-12 ARIMA software to perform the necessary regressions and calculations. If you are interested and have some technical skills in this area, you can d/l the software for PC/Mac/Linux here:
http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/
direct link for PC here:
http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/x12downv03_pc.html
The government reported employment numbers again come from George Orwell’s world. There are two different surveys used to report this crap. The headline is that we “CREATED” 244,000 jobs in April. Total bullshit. Here is a link to the BLS Birth/Death adjustment for April.
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
The government has no idea whether small businesses have added or subtracted workers, so they have a model that guesses what happened. Shockingly, it has guessed too high by MILLIONS of jobs over the last three years. Over on Calculated Risk this morning was this info:
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release their April survey on Tuesday, May 10th. Here is a pre-release of the employment results from NFIB: NFIB Jobs Statement: Hiring Trends Inconsistent and Disappointing
So if I register a new business and that business happens to be a lemonade stand, would I get counted in the birth/death adjustment?
If a drunk driver ran you over while serving lemonade that probably yes
Haven't you read the story about the fellow trying to open up a lemonade stand and could not complete all the regulatory garbage:
http://blogs.findlaw.com/legally_weird/2010/08/kids-lemonade-stand-shut-...
It is virtually impossible to open up a small business because the too big to fail businesses and unions have gotten the government to regulate away any hope for small business competition. Think about trying to start a car company today. In the 20s and thirties, remember all the little car companies until FDR and his union buddies took over. More modern examples abound. IBM got Daniel Patrick Moynahan to write a low making it illegal to be a contract programmer unless you were part of a larger business.
I believe each McDonalds job comes with a selection of Food Stamps.
Well, this is a net number (I believe), so more than that found jobs. Also, you should compare to the number looking (your 20MM figure), not those eligible, as 90% of them are working (per your example). Still crummy though
.
Apparently the people who trade the futures either do not understand this, don't care or like any job no matter how little it pays.
.
I am sure MSM will report this just the way Tyler did. Yup, trust is high.
rigghhtt.
ZH gets a shout out:
Latest News From RAN Squawk
05-06 09:17: Zero Hedge writes NFP Ex-McDonalds And Birth Death: +7k
I loves me some ZH!
But, the headline employment rate increased from 8.8% to 9%. Thanks to McDonalds! USA, Fuck Yeah!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mcdonalds-hires-62000-turns-away-over-938000-applicants-minimum-wage-part-time-jobs
I would like to make a prediction that a large number of those 938,000 will drop out of the unemployment statistics soon. Why? If you can't get a job at McDonalds then how could you possibly justify not reverting back to the 'discouraged' category. Headline unemployment will drop to 8.5% soon.
Also, I would look for other PPACA (Obamacare) exempt US companies (read McDonalds) to hire minimum wage workers in May. This is the 2011 version of last years Census hiring.
Ahh the census numbers... that was good stuff. The masters will never cease to amaze with their creative ways of lulling the sheep.
Wall Street has a Pollyanna complex! This will ultimately end in tears!
Tyler, Why do you insist on confusing us with the facts. I would be much easier if I could just listen to CNBC and buy the dips.
Why does ZH always do this? The 244,000 figure is Seasonally Adjusted. The Birth/Death model figures are Not Seasonally Adjusted. You can't just subtract the B/D figure directly like that.
i think the answer to that is obvious: if you want to earn from internet advertising, you have to have traffic on your site, and the easiest way to get traffic is scandalise.
It seems that the McDonalds number were AFTER the cut-off for NFP
I don't know who to believe anymore.
Well at least you know who NOT to believe.
GS , MS , DB all say McDo will show in May leisure.
Traders in the office laughing at this hit piece.
Bottom line, report was ok.
That's because Wall Street lives on another planet than Main Street.
Except that the UE rate increased to 9%.
Last time McD's was discussed here, the thread was so long I had to go hit the dollar menu after. Stop already.
Here's my barometer -
I live in suburbia with a 48-mile commute to and through one of the most commercial regions of the country.
My commute time has steadily dropped in the past 6 mos. Used to be tough to do it in 70 minutes, now it's regularly 55-60.
No traffic congestion. No one working.
Excellent analysis, Tyler
It isn't called the B(L)S for nothing:
i hate to have to be the one to tell you this, but people who are not employed and not looking for work, are excluded from the definition of 'unemployed' in all countries. that is standard.
McDonalds was a big beneficiary of the Obamacare waiver program. Perhaps, if all business had a waiver we'd get more people back to work. Ah, there's a thought.
+7K must be extremely bullish.
This article was just mentioned on the Rush Limbaugh show, lol.
Anybody post this yet?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/employment-dirty-little-secret-and-more.html
"First, anyone who adds (or subtracts) the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) birth/death model numbers from the headline SA payroll employment is clueless. Someone sent me this "analysis" today: "... you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with.... +7K jobs". That is complete nonsense. The key issue with the birth/death model is it misses turning points; otherwise it is an important part of the monthly estimate."
You don't usually see that kind of arrogance from CR.
dont worry about it but the McDonalds hirings were not in this month's data.
edit: just realised that this point was made a number of times above.