• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

NFP Ex McDonalds And Birth Death: +7k

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Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:49 | 1246931 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Super sized recovery, bitchezzz

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246957 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

Way too netagive!

  • 250K jobs is a quarter million!!
  • Adjust to whatever you want to but 250K more income and more money in the economy!
  • with commodity WAY TOO LOW QE3 HAS TO BE THERE!



Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:05 | 1246997 SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

Well if all it takes is a big number, then by God let's say it was +500k!  Thought we needed some tie to reality, but if that isn't a factor....

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:24 | 1247089 mojine
mojine's picture

Say "big number" 3 times and "recovery" magically appears!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:25 | 1247410 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

More lies.  Gov't is full of shit.

Maybe the lack-lustre employment figures are due to "evil speculators"?

HA!  CNBS should do an hour story on it.  Maybe my cat would watch then.


Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:24 | 1247085 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

62k new MacDs workers buying $5 gas to go to work - 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:06 | 1247315 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Mcdonalds forced to hire 62k since the Labor Dept is now after fast food joints for getting too many illegals ? aka Chipotle...

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:56 | 1247557 andybev01
andybev01's picture

This explains how McD's got their health insurance exemption.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:06 | 1247002 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Hamburglar bitchez!

McDonalds Hamburger University - skool of economics

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:47 | 1248133 Silveroz
Silveroz's picture

For those of us concerned with facts, the McDonalds hiring likely isn't in this report since the reference week was the week before they hired.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:09 | 1247021 pbmatthews
pbmatthews's picture

I hear President Soetoro is going to extend his US victory tour to Micky D's today and that he has scheduled a 2:00 PM press conference with the Hamburgler and Ronald McDonald.  



Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:22 | 1247078 shushup
shushup's picture


Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:43 | 1247207 insatiablegenius
insatiablegenius's picture

I think everyone is forgetting home depot did the same thing so let's add their numbers to the bunch.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | 1246937 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

the spin is that 'the direction' is better than the 'condition'...my ass.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:09 | 1247020 augie
augie's picture

you want some more spin?

From the BLS http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdqa.htm

Q: Can I subtract the birth/death adjustment from the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change to determine what it is adding to employment?


A: No.  Birth/death factors are a component of the not seasonally adjusted estimate and therefore are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes.  Instead, the birth/death factor should be assessed in the context of its effect on the not seasonally adjusted estimate.


It works, because they say it does. great logic, i wish i could use that on my finals.


Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:18 | 1247364 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:17 | 1247375 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:22 | 1247398 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture


eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks


Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | 1246938 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

time for another obama victory lap

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:01 | 1246993 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

We smoked the hopium and it changed.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | 1246939 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

back out the 8K jobs added at BK and Wendys and you get -1K!



Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:47 | 1247515 depression
depression's picture

Four More Years Bitchezzzz !!!!

Obama FTW !

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:51 | 1246940 hazenyc
hazenyc's picture

The NFP # just doesn't jive with the the unemployment rate and the dreadful jobless claims numbers from yesterday.. this helps put it in better prespective I suppose..

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246942 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

McDonald's employee death rate just went through the roof!!!

Maybe they should install metal bars in the windows and invest in wrist cut proof cutlery

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246958 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

...or, tell their employees to stop eating their food.  tasty, but life threatening.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:57 | 1248178 andybev01
andybev01's picture


Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:56 | 1246943 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Is this being inferred or is it a certainty that these MCD hiring numbers are baked into this month's data?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:39 | 1247177 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Some portion is baked in, some portion is offset by seasonal adjustments.

I don't even know why we are debating this.  NFP is the most manipulated govt number out there, with CPI being a close second. 

Claims numbers give us a less adulterated view on where things are going... and its not pretty... and even that number is bullshit.

Ultimately, this bullshit is a good thing.  It gives us all more time to add to our hedges. (PM's, food, water, ammo).


Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:00 | 1247295 jt17
jt17's picture

Ummm...the last two lines of the GS note says:

"For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time."


The meaning is pretty clear - the McD's hiring did NOT factor into the strong April numbers.  Don't be shocked when you see a strong May number next month, because that's when it will likely be reflected.


Just sayin'.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 11:16 | 1247642 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

The hiring day was 4/19.  I seriously doubt there was a long wait before their first day.  Most probably got their first paycheck before the end of the month.  Might not have been a two-week check, but I'm sure they were still on payroll.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | 1246946 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

That's great Tyler. Imagine 5 o'clock news running that headline. I bet half of this 7k are financial services of new hires out of college for Wall Street.

I guess the futures are excited that QE3 is needed after these beaut numbers came out.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246947 Jeremy Roenick
Jeremy Roenick's picture

Ok, at what point to the cheerleader economists finally admit we did not come out of the recession in 2009?  It seems obvious to anyone with a IQ over 50 that the economy is not growing and employers are not hiring.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | 1246971 Mercury
Mercury's picture

As of yesterday a whole bunch of smaller, regional bank CEO/CFOs say loan demand is almost non-existent and they're surviving off the spread between deposits and treasuries - even in Texas (PRSP) which has one of the better economies in the country.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:23 | 1247099 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Talked to the President of our local bank a few weeks ago.   Same story.   They still have a solid performing loan base, but the non-relenting slow-down in the economy keeps eating at the edges.

He knows of dual income families loosing one of the incomes and coming in to restructure or discuss options.  They are a community bank and are trying to work with them, but he has 'advised' some of them that if the real-eatate doesn't make sense, to preserve their savings and 'walk away'.

He hasn't seen anything like this in the 40+ years he's been in the banking industry

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:02 | 1246977 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All theyre worried about now is keeping the vast majority of americans who are total retards placated a bit longer. They think this is fun.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | 1246998 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Precisely as last time, when a Depression is succinctly declared. Soon.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:06 | 1247008 Justaman
Justaman's picture


What do crickets sound like?  

You answered your own question, there are no economists with IQs over 50 (or at least any with common sense)!

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

    - Mark Twain/Benjamin Disraeli

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:52 | 1246948 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the birth/death adjustment is fairly high, and the household was actually -190k.  Last time we had such a big discrepancy this direction was in October.  That was followed by 3 weak NFP's.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246949 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Spike the ball bitchez!



Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:57 | 1246954 augie
augie's picture

since when is mc'diabetes a resturant?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:57 | 1246956 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Birth/death is the net amount of new business filings, right?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:00 | 1246986 Quintus
Quintus's picture

No it is a politically influenced plug figure to produce the 'Right' NFP number masquerading as a scientific estimate of the number of net jobs gained or lost in businesses which have not yet been reported.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:57 | 1246959 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I'm sure McDonalds got a sweet heart of a deal for their big hiring promotion. God help us if it's the fast food industry leading the recovery.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:10 | 1247011 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Not a problem.  A little financial engineering, a few multi-billion dollar CFOFOs (Collateralized Filet O'Fish Obligations), and we can lever that McDonalds hiring into a sizeable bonus pool for the street, and this economy will take off like a rocket!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:59 | 1246960 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture


The only activity the government does is pacify the majority of the population using false statistics and promises of a better future so that the rest of the population does not lynch them and their masters, the bankers and the top industrialists, while they are robbing the taxpayers of everything that the taxpayers consume or save.




Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:00 | 1246972 lordcoke
lordcoke's picture

i dont believe any numbers anymore. im going to the compton swap meet for some capitalism.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:05 | 1247005 augie
augie's picture

just make sure you bring your numbers .308 .556 and .45 with you... those are numbers i still believe in.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:26 | 1247119 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

agreed, but, mine are 7.62 and .40.   ;-)


Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:32 | 1247138 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

No love for the .3006?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:50 | 1247236 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture


Now that's a debate that could rage forever.

Forget the 9/11 conspiracy thing.

.270 or .30 '06?

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