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NFP Ex McDonalds And Birth Death: +7k

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's BLS of 244K is great... until you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with.... +7K jobs.

And yes, the "McDonalds factor" is to be included. Per Goldman:

McDonald’s Corporation said that it hired 62,000 people during an April 19 promotional event. Despite the striking number, we do not expect a major effect on nonfarm payroll employment. Last year, the industry referred to in the payroll statistics as “limited service restaurants” added 209,000 jobs during the seasonal upswing in employment from March through June in seasonally adjusted terms. Given that McDonald’s has a 17% market share of the US fast food market (as of 2009), around 35,000 of the new hires can be accounted for by seasonal variation. In addition, according to our equity analysts, US growth in the number of McDonald’s restaurants is limited. Therefore, it seems most likely that the hiring resulted from natural turnover and seasonal demand, rather than a broader business expansion. For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time.

A history of Birth Death adjustments which ultimately get washed out in the annual massive downward NFP revision which nobody really ever cares about though.

 

 

 

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Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:49 | 1246931 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Super sized recovery, bitchezzz

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246957 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

Way too netagive!

  • 250K jobs is a quarter million!!
  • Adjust to whatever you want to but 250K more income and more money in the economy!
  • with commodity WAY TOO LOW QE3 HAS TO BE THERE!

 

SO BTFD!!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:05 | 1246997 SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

Well if all it takes is a big number, then by God let's say it was +500k!  Thought we needed some tie to reality, but if that isn't a factor....

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:24 | 1247089 mojine
mojine's picture

Say "big number" 3 times and "recovery" magically appears!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:25 | 1247410 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

More lies.  Gov't is full of shit.

Maybe the lack-lustre employment figures are due to "evil speculators"?

HA!  CNBS should do an hour story on it.  Maybe my cat would watch then.

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:24 | 1247085 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

62k new MacDs workers buying $5 gas to go to work - 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:06 | 1247315 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Mcdonalds forced to hire 62k since the Labor Dept is now after fast food joints for getting too many illegals ? aka Chipotle...

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:56 | 1247557 andybev01
andybev01's picture

This explains how McD's got their health insurance exemption.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:06 | 1247002 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

Hamburglar bitchez!

McDonalds Hamburger University - skool of economics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2jnzcq2w5o

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:47 | 1248133 Silveroz
Silveroz's picture

For those of us concerned with facts, the McDonalds hiring likely isn't in this report since the reference week was the week before they hired.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:09 | 1247021 pbmatthews
pbmatthews's picture

I hear President Soetoro is going to extend his US victory tour to Micky D's today and that he has scheduled a 2:00 PM press conference with the Hamburgler and Ronald McDonald.  

 

Winning!!!!!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:22 | 1247078 shushup
shushup's picture

lol

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:43 | 1247207 insatiablegenius
insatiablegenius's picture

I think everyone is forgetting home depot did the same thing so let's add their numbers to the bunch.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | 1246937 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

the spin is that 'the direction' is better than the 'condition'...my ass.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:09 | 1247020 augie
augie's picture

you want some more spin?

From the BLS http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbdqa.htm

Q: Can I subtract the birth/death adjustment from the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change to determine what it is adding to employment?

 

A: No.  Birth/death factors are a component of the not seasonally adjusted estimate and therefore are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes.  Instead, the birth/death factor should be assessed in the context of its effect on the not seasonally adjusted estimate.

 

It works, because they say it does. great logic, i wish i could use that on my finals.

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:18 | 1247364 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:17 | 1247375 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:22 | 1247398 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

 

eff that, im subtracting it, and with that i think today's number was more in line if anything: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/the-bls-report-for-april-2011-aka-non-farm-payrolls-not-as-good-as-it-looks

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | 1246938 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

time for another obama victory lap

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:01 | 1246993 Dejean Splicer
Dejean Splicer's picture

We smoked the hopium and it changed.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | 1246939 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

back out the 8K jobs added at BK and Wendys and you get -1K!

 

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:47 | 1247515 depression
depression's picture

Four More Years Bitchezzzz !!!!

Obama FTW !

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:51 | 1246940 hazenyc
hazenyc's picture

The NFP # just doesn't jive with the the unemployment rate and the dreadful jobless claims numbers from yesterday.. this helps put it in better prespective I suppose..

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246942 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

McDonald's employee death rate just went through the roof!!!

Maybe they should install metal bars in the windows and invest in wrist cut proof cutlery

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246958 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

...or, tell their employees to stop eating their food.  tasty, but life threatening.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 12:57 | 1248178 andybev01
andybev01's picture

+101

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:56 | 1246943 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Is this being inferred or is it a certainty that these MCD hiring numbers are baked into this month's data?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:39 | 1247177 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Some portion is baked in, some portion is offset by seasonal adjustments.

I don't even know why we are debating this.  NFP is the most manipulated govt number out there, with CPI being a close second. 

Claims numbers give us a less adulterated view on where things are going... and its not pretty... and even that number is bullshit.

Ultimately, this bullshit is a good thing.  It gives us all more time to add to our hedges. (PM's, food, water, ammo).

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:00 | 1247295 jt17
jt17's picture

Ummm...the last two lines of the GS note says:

"For the hiring event to have a major impact on the April employment report, a large majority of the new employees would have had to begin receiving a paycheck immediately. More likely these hires will be phased in over time."

 

The meaning is pretty clear - the McD's hiring did NOT factor into the strong April numbers.  Don't be shocked when you see a strong May number next month, because that's when it will likely be reflected.

 

Just sayin'.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 11:16 | 1247642 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

The hiring day was 4/19.  I seriously doubt there was a long wait before their first day.  Most probably got their first paycheck before the end of the month.  Might not have been a two-week check, but I'm sure they were still on payroll.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | 1246946 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

That's great Tyler. Imagine 5 o'clock news running that headline. I bet half of this 7k are financial services of new hires out of college for Wall Street.

I guess the futures are excited that QE3 is needed after these beaut numbers came out.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246947 Jeremy Roenick
Jeremy Roenick's picture

Ok, at what point to the cheerleader economists finally admit we did not come out of the recession in 2009?  It seems obvious to anyone with a IQ over 50 that the economy is not growing and employers are not hiring.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | 1246971 Mercury
Mercury's picture

As of yesterday a whole bunch of smaller, regional bank CEO/CFOs say loan demand is almost non-existent and they're surviving off the spread between deposits and treasuries - even in Texas (PRSP) which has one of the better economies in the country.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:23 | 1247099 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Talked to the President of our local bank a few weeks ago.   Same story.   They still have a solid performing loan base, but the non-relenting slow-down in the economy keeps eating at the edges.

He knows of dual income families loosing one of the incomes and coming in to restructure or discuss options.  They are a community bank and are trying to work with them, but he has 'advised' some of them that if the real-eatate doesn't make sense, to preserve their savings and 'walk away'.

He hasn't seen anything like this in the 40+ years he's been in the banking industry

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:02 | 1246977 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All theyre worried about now is keeping the vast majority of americans who are total retards placated a bit longer. They think this is fun.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | 1246998 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Precisely as last time, when a Depression is succinctly declared. Soon.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:06 | 1247008 Justaman
Justaman's picture

Styles,

What do crickets sound like?  

You answered your own question, there are no economists with IQs over 50 (or at least any with common sense)!

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

    - Mark Twain/Benjamin Disraeli

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:52 | 1246948 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the birth/death adjustment is fairly high, and the household was actually -190k.  Last time we had such a big discrepancy this direction was in October.  That was followed by 3 weak NFP's.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:55 | 1246949 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Spike the ball bitchez!

 

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:53 | 1246952 wang
wang's picture

Just now on Bloomberg Bill Gross being interviewed:

Bill was QE2 a good idea and was it effective?

I think it was and I think the intention of "the bernank" ...

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:57 | 1246954 augie
augie's picture

since when is mc'diabetes a resturant?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:57 | 1246956 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Birth/death is the net amount of new business filings, right?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:00 | 1246986 Quintus
Quintus's picture

No it is a politically influenced plug figure to produce the 'Right' NFP number masquerading as a scientific estimate of the number of net jobs gained or lost in businesses which have not yet been reported.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:57 | 1246959 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I'm sure McDonalds got a sweet heart of a deal for their big hiring promotion. God help us if it's the fast food industry leading the recovery.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:10 | 1247011 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Not a problem.  A little financial engineering, a few multi-billion dollar CFOFOs (Collateralized Filet O'Fish Obligations), and we can lever that McDonalds hiring into a sizeable bonus pool for the street, and this economy will take off like a rocket!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:59 | 1246960 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

 

The only activity the government does is pacify the majority of the population using false statistics and promises of a better future so that the rest of the population does not lynch them and their masters, the bankers and the top industrialists, while they are robbing the taxpayers of everything that the taxpayers consume or save.

http://www­.marketora­cle.co.uk/­Article245­81.html

 

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:00 | 1246972 lordcoke
lordcoke's picture

i dont believe any numbers anymore. im going to the compton swap meet for some capitalism.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:05 | 1247005 augie
augie's picture

just make sure you bring your numbers .308 .556 and .45 with you... those are numbers i still believe in.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:26 | 1247119 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

agreed, but, mine are 7.62 and .40.   ;-)

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:32 | 1247138 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

No love for the .3006?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:50 | 1247236 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

 

Now that's a debate that could rage forever.

Forget the 9/11 conspiracy thing.

.270 or .30 '06?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:57 | 1247263 augie
augie's picture

how far do you have to hump the ammo? whats the range to target?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:04 | 1247307 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

 

Average hunter is not likely to take a shot at anything beyond 400 yards.

Average ZH paranoid schizophrenic (of which I am one) has never shot at anything or at best not at anything beyond 100 yards (I might be an exception to the rule).  .270 might  even be way too much.  .223 is always a little light on anything bigger than a ground hog.  .243 might be the best round technically speaking, just not a lot of supply.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:53 | 1247546 augie
augie's picture

I definitely fit into that paranoid schizophrenic label as well. Beyond 100? Shit, last season i capped a doe within 20 yards of my blind right in the neck. I don't like to make animals suffer, whatever transfers the most energy to the target shocking its system the most is what i use. 180 grain .308 over kill if you're going for body shots but unless its a buck i always go for head or neck. Meat tastes better too.

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 11:22 | 1247668 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

 

At 20 yards, you could have put that doe down with a pistol!

From the stands/blinds I mostly bow hunt.  At 20 yards, that would be exceptionally messy.

whatever transfers the most energy to the target shocking its system the most is what i use.

I remember reading somewhere that the impact force of the bullet should be at least twice the weight of the target.

130 grain .270 probably equals something like 2,000 pounds at 200 yards.  Let's say your average take down is 200 yards.  If that math is right, a .270 is probably more than 10 times more gun than you need for most North American game and maybe 2 times the gun for the largest North American game.  At that range, the 130 grain .270 is flat at 200.  It has to be the most efficient round out there.

A 150 grain .308 probably has the same exact ballistics at those ranges, but it has some drop 200.

.270 = best, .308 = economically efficient equivalent... .30-06 equals a sore shoulder after a day at the range and the ammo is to damn expensive.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 15:19 | 1248830 augie
augie's picture

heh messy is a good word for it. Always respect a bow hunter. I've been using a bowtech garudian for a few years now, haven't managed to kill anything yet, can't bare the thought of wounding the damn animals. I'd rather use a rifle. My buddy has a 300 winmag if you want to talk about sore shoulders...

 

happy hunting.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 17:14 | 1249272 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

 

I started shooting recurve and compound bows 22 years ago.  It takes a lifetime to master, so I'm no where near that and pretty rusty these days (wife and kids have the nasty effect of limiting my free time). 

Arrows are a blunt instrument so there really is nothing worse than wounding an animal that way.  But the technology gets better and better every year.

.300 winmag is a serious round.  I've never had a chance to shoot at something big enough to warrant that kind of a weapon.  Not that I'm recoil sensitive, but the bigger the bang, the more likely I am to go wide.

That said, I've always wanted to fire a .50 BMG.  Outside of millitary applications, it has no real purpose, but it would be fucking awesome to hit a cynderblock from a mile away.

Happy hunting to you too.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:57 | 1247285 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

I'll stir the pot:

.308/7.62, .30-06 springfield, and the .270 winchester make the same exact hole in things.

.270 is flatter than .30 06, less recoil and therefore more accurate in longer ranges.  End of discussion.

But the almighty .308/7.62 is perhaps the cheapest centerfire round on the market and in the zombie apocalypse, there will be crates of them lying around.  .308 is king.

All three of these rounds can kill anything alive in the lower 48.  Go with the .308.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:59 | 1246975 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And if you add the initial claims, then it's -470k jobs.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:25 | 1247111 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

didnt see goolsbee or obama talking about those #s

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 08:59 | 1246978 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

don't forget out of those remaining less than 7k after BK and Wendy's they are probably Taco Bell, KFC, BofA-ML, Citi

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:02 | 1246979 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Tyler, how dare you try and correlate economics with the laws of Nature and physics!  TPTB can "make" Nature do whatever they want, buy the fucking dip already and support the ponzi!  (do I really have to use the sarcasm flags?)

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:02 | 1246982 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

The jobs of tomorrow to keep us competitive-- I guess you have to start somewhere and flipping burgers is the traditional jumping point into the real work force.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | 1246988 zman78
zman78's picture

Unbelievable how long they are pushing this ponzi and the fact that the investing public is buying it.  Unfortunately we are due for some type of short term (maybe only 1 day) rally and this is the impetus it needs.  Starting to see a disconnect though as some commodities like crude and silver still falling while dollar went up off the news release (as did the ES).

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:03 | 1246989 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

But 4 REALLY good jobs were added.....with corner offices, expense accounts and everything.....these are bankruptcy attorneys but hot dam they have a good job....

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:04 | 1246994 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Barry must be really happy - his "original" birth certificate has surfaced, he's binned bin Laden and he's got a quarter of a million jobs todays - oh joy, the next Presidency beckons...

DavidC

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:02 | 1246996 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

"You want fries with that?" = New Norm

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:04 | 1247003 zman78
zman78's picture

Bernanke is finally having his unilateral wet dream...Higher equities and lower crude.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:07 | 1247004 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

MCD is as government subsidized as JPM.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:08 | 1247007 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

the 99ers who are off UE are all starting businesses that's the Obuma miracle

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:06 | 1247009 King Durian
King Durian's picture

So let me see if I got this straight.

Assuming a rough estimation of 300,000,000 Americans, and assuming 200,000,000 are actually eligible to work..that means that the odds of an American getting a job this last month was the same as this: 1 in 28571.

Let's assume for simplicity here that 10% of Americans within that 200,000,000 actively want work. So 20 million.

Taking the 28571 odd of finding a job, that means 1 in 700 successfully found work.

 

Now, I'm not on the ground in America, so I can only know from statistics like this. Is it possible that only 1 out 700 Americans who wanted work last month found it???

 

 

 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:23 | 1247097 earnulf
earnulf's picture

No only straight, but damn straight.    Low level, manual labor, minimum wage jobs can be found at pet food processors, CAFO operations and some warehouse operations, first come, first serve.   Liveable wages (to cover food, fuel, utilities, clothing, etc) are harder to come by and generally you must be young (under 30), in good health, with your own transportation and be willing to work for little or no benefits (medical insurance, life insurance, 401K).

Wife has been out of work for 1.3 years now, can't find an office job (she's over 50) after working since she was 22 (college grad).

But we are "Winning The Future".   I like that, WTF!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:57 | 1247268 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Sorry to hear about your wife, earnulf. Has she looked beyond office jobs? Has she considered retail or other non-physical-labor possibilities? I'm just wondering how broadly she has been searching.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:11 | 1247022 cabernet
cabernet's picture

No doubt about it. The job seen is very weak. While jobs at McDonald's are not the best, they are great for those entering the job market for the first time. I had a job like this as a youngster, so I do not discount these jobs as much as others might. On the plus side, manufacturing jobs appear to be in an uptrend. Manufacturing tends to pay more, slows down imports and creates products for export. All good. I am hoping for more job improvement going forward. The participation rate is very troubling however as it really shows how weak the market is these days.

http://www.TheAngryGrapes.Com

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | 1247031 eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

This is a perfect play to get reatail and small guys back in the market before crushing them whole hearted.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | 1247034 brian0918
brian0918's picture

This is not completely accurate, because you are comparing a seasonally-adjusted number (NFP) to a non-seasonally-adjusted number (birth/death), which the BLS says is not comparable in their FAQ.

Conveniently, the BLS also does not release a birth/death adjustment that is seasonally adjusted, nor can I find anywhere the non-seasonally-adjusted NFP number.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:55 | 1247186 M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

Table B1.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

SA and NSA figures are there. In the SA column, April 2011 minus March 2011= 244K
In the NSA column, (April'11) - (March'11) = 1.169 million. Subtract B/D figures and you'd have 994,000 NSA.

To convert this to a SA number is quite a bit more difficult. The BLS uses the X-12 ARIMA software to perform the necessary regressions and calculations. If you are interested and have some technical skills in this area, you can d/l the software for PC/Mac/Linux here:

http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/

direct link for PC here:

http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/x12downv03_pc.html

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:12 | 1247040 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

The government reported employment numbers again come from George Orwell’s world. There are two different surveys used to report this crap. The headline is that we “CREATED” 244,000 jobs in April. Total bullshit. Here is a link to the BLS Birth/Death adjustment for April.

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

The government has no idea whether small businesses have added or subtracted workers, so they have a model that guesses what happened. Shockingly, it has guessed too high by MILLIONS of jobs over the last three years. Over on Calculated Risk this morning was this info:

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release their April survey on Tuesday, May 10th. Here is a pre-release of the employment results from NFIB: NFIB Jobs Statement: Hiring Trends Inconsistent and Disappointing

“Four months into 2011, the trajectory for small-business hiring appears inconsistent and disappointing. February and March gave us some hope, but in April, the average number of net new jobs slipped from 0.17 per firm to 0.04. With fewer increases in new hires and more reports of shrinkage in workforces, we can expect the April job numbers to be a disappointment.

Drilling down into the (seasonally adjusted) numbers:

• 8 percent of those surveyed increased employment;
• 15 percent reduced employment; and,
• 14 percent reported unfilled job openings, down 1 point from last month.

 

“And the outlook for future employment growth remains unchanged from March: Only 16 percent plan to increase employment, and 6 percent plan to reduce their workforce, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 2 percent of owners planning to create new jobs in the next three months.

 

This info says that small businesses are decreasing employment but the government says they added 175,000 jobs in April. The 244,000 number is complete and utter bullshit.

 

The real numbers are on this part of the BLS website.

 

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea03.htm

 

Here is what is really happening:

  • The number of employed Americans DROPPED by 190,000 in April versus March
  • The number of officially unemployed went up by 205,000 and at the same time another 131,000 people left the workforce because things are soooo good.
  • The official unemployment rate went up to 9%
  • Since last April, the working age population went up by 1.8 million, but somehow the civilian labor force declined by 1.1 million. George Orwell is spinning in his grave.
  • There are only 292,000 more people employed today than last April, but Obama claims that millions of new jobs have been created. The Bigger the Lie, the more likely the masses will believe.
  • Even though only 292,000 more people are employed, the number of unemployed dropped by 1.4 million in the last year. WOW!!! What happened to these people? Were they beamed up to Mars.
  • No. It seems that things in the country are so great that 2.9 million people have voluntarily left the labor force in the last year. 

These employment statistics are beyond laughable. Reality is that unemployment is north of 20%. The stock market doesn’t care. It will rally on this fake data, but the people who are unemployed know differently.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | 1247043 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

So if I register a new business and that business happens to be a lemonade stand, would I get counted in the birth/death adjustment?

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:53 | 1247255 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

If a drunk driver ran you over while serving lemonade that probably yes

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:36 | 1247463 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Haven't you read the story about the fellow trying to open up a lemonade stand and could not complete all the regulatory garbage:

http://blogs.findlaw.com/legally_weird/2010/08/kids-lemonade-stand-shut-...

It is virtually impossible to open up a small business because the too big to fail businesses and unions have gotten the government to regulate away any hope for small business competition.  Think about trying to start a car company today.  In the 20s and thirties, remember all the little car companies until FDR and his union buddies took over.  More modern examples abound.  IBM got Daniel Patrick Moynahan to write a low making it illegal to be a contract programmer unless you were part of a larger business.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | 1247045 Kina
Kina's picture

I believe each McDonalds job comes with a selection of Food Stamps.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:13 | 1247046 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Well, this is a net number (I believe), so more than that found jobs.  Also, you should compare to the number looking (your 20MM figure), not those eligible, as 90% of them are working (per your example).  Still crummy though

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:21 | 1247060 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:18 | 1247061 shushup
shushup's picture

Apparently the people who trade the futures either do not understand this, don't care or like any job no matter how little it pays.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:17 | 1247064 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:18 | 1247074 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I am sure MSM will report this just the way Tyler did. Yup, trust is high.

 

rigghhtt.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:19 | 1247080 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

ZH gets a shout out:

Latest News From RAN Squawk
05-06 09:17: Zero Hedge writes NFP Ex-McDonalds And Birth Death: +7k

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:24 | 1247103 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I loves me some ZH!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:27 | 1247106 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

But, the headline employment rate increased from 8.8% to 9%.  Thanks to McDonalds!  USA, Fuck Yeah!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mcdonalds-hires-62000-turns-away-over-938000-applicants-minimum-wage-part-time-jobs

I would like to make a prediction that a large number of those 938,000 will drop out of the unemployment statistics soon.  Why?  If you can't get a job at McDonalds then how could you possibly justify not reverting back to the 'discouraged' category.  Headline unemployment will drop to 8.5% soon. 

Also, I would look for other PPACA (Obamacare) exempt US companies (read McDonalds) to hire minimum wage workers in May.  This is the 2011 version of last years Census hiring. 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:45 | 1247196 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Ahh the census numbers... that was good stuff.  The masters will never cease to amaze with their creative ways of lulling the sheep.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:25 | 1247109 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Wall Street has a Pollyanna complex! This will ultimately end in tears!

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:31 | 1247125 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Tyler, Why do you insist on confusing us with the facts.  I would be much easier if I could just listen to CNBC and buy the dips.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:37 | 1247154 M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

Why does ZH always do this? The 244,000 figure is Seasonally Adjusted. The Birth/Death model figures are Not Seasonally Adjusted. You can't just subtract the B/D figure directly like that.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 17:51 | 1249398 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

i think the answer to that is obvious:  if you want to earn from internet advertising, you have to have traffic on your site, and the easiest way to get traffic is scandalise.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:37 | 1247162 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

It seems that the McDonalds number were AFTER the cut-off for NFP

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:39 | 1247180 2DollarBill
2DollarBill's picture

I don't know who to believe anymore.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 14:03 | 1248507 Pez
Pez's picture

Well at least you know who NOT to believe.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:25 | 1247374 WhOracle
WhOracle's picture

GS , MS , DB all say McDo will show in May leisure.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:49 | 1247212 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Traders in the office laughing at this hit piece.

 

Bottom line, report was ok.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:05 | 1247325 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

That's because Wall Street lives on another planet than Main Street.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:55 | 1247252 r101958
r101958's picture

Except that the UE rate increased to 9%.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 09:58 | 1247274 Blano
Blano's picture

Last time McD's was discussed here, the thread was so long I had to go hit the dollar menu after.  Stop already.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:00 | 1247286 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Here's my barometer -

I live in suburbia with a 48-mile commute to and through one of the most commercial regions of the country.

My commute time has steadily dropped in the past 6 mos.  Used to be tough to do it in 70 minutes, now it's regularly 55-60. 

No traffic congestion.  No one working. 

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:11 | 1247335 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Excellent analysis, Tyler
It isn't called the B(L)S for nothing:

  1. 4 million unemployed who are not labeled unemployed (see: Marginally attached and discouraged)...
  2. Ludicrous reductions in Labor force participation...
  3. Birth of small businesses that don't exist...
  4. Barry Soetoro's favorite "Lie By Constant Revision"...
Fri, 05/06/2011 - 17:48 | 1249383 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

i hate to have to be the one to tell you this, but people who are not employed and not looking for work, are excluded from the definition of 'unemployed' in all countries.  that is standard.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:29 | 1247422 Duude
Duude's picture

McDonalds was a big beneficiary of the Obamacare waiver program. Perhaps, if all business had a waiver we'd get more people back to work. Ah, there's a thought.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 10:57 | 1247554 djsmps
djsmps's picture

+7K must be extremely bullish.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 14:16 | 1248579 ggnore
ggnore's picture

This article was just mentioned on the Rush Limbaugh show, lol.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 15:09 | 1248801 Johnk
Johnk's picture

Anybody post this yet?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/employment-dirty-little-secret-and-more.html

 

"First, anyone who adds (or subtracts) the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) birth/death model numbers from the headline SA payroll employment is clueless. Someone sent me this "analysis" today: "... you exclude the 62K from McDonalds hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with.... +7K jobs". That is complete nonsense. The key issue with the birth/death model is it misses turning points; otherwise it is an important part of the monthly estimate."

You don't usually see that kind of arrogance from CR.

Fri, 05/06/2011 - 17:53 | 1249369 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

dont worry about it but the McDonalds hirings were not in this month's data.

 

edit: just realised that this point was made a number of times above.

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