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NFP Prints At 103,000 On Expectations Of 150,000 Unemployment At 9.4%, Private Payrolls +113K On Expectations Of +178K, Hourly Earnings Up 0.1%
Immediate market reaction is not pretty as everyone's completely ridiculous expectation that Barclays' "95% confidence interval" of a 480,000 print ends up being that much hot air.
Summary:
- Change in Private Payrolls (Dec) M/M 113K vs. Exp. 178K (Prev. 50K, Rev. to 79K)
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec) M/M 10K vs. Exp. 5K (Prev. -13K, Rev. to -8K)
- US Average Hourly Earnings (Dec) Y/Y 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%)
- US Average Weekly Hours (Dec) M/M 34.3 vs. Exp. 34.3 (Prev. 34.3)
- Labor force participation plunges to multi year low: 64.3%
- 24 thousand added from Birth-Death
From the report:
The number of unemployed persons decreased by 556,000 to 14.5 million in December, and the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent. Over the year, these measures were down from 15.2 million and 9.9 percent, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (9.4 percent) and whites (8.5 percent) declined in December. The unemployment rates for adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (25.4 percent), blacks (15.8 percent), and Hispanics (13.0 percent) showed little change. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.2 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In December, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs dropped by 548,000 to 8.9 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 6.4 million and accounted for 44.3 percent of the unemployed. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)
The civilian labor force participation rate edged down in December to 64.3 percent, and the employment-population ratio was essentially unchanged at 58.3 percent. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (some-times referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged in December at 8.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
About 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, little different than a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.3 million discouraged workers in December, an increase of 389,000 from December 2009. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
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BTFD!!!!
Wow, The Turd nails it here. The guy's a flippin genius:)
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/putting-bs-in-bls-bs-report.html
All those christmas tree december jobs are gone now, wouldn't it be safe to assume this is setting up a major wall street RALLY, when unemployment goes UP in January and we can expect QE3?
Solution - have xmas every month.
Not having a monthly xmas is unamerican. Are you a terr'ist?
By Fiat: Jan - November compressed into one month, called November, it ends with Thanksgiving, so its a Turkey. Econ data only reported in January (I mean November) of the following year. December is either celebrated for 6 months or 9 months and Sexmas Day is now a month and on every day there are mandated gifts to give.
Recovery here we ho ho ho!
"You will be ho ho ho happy,
Or we will ho ho ho shoot you."
"Smile, smile, smile!"
depression, bitchez.
That's too harsh.
Let me hear the frauds spin this as recovery! Recovery bitches!
Believe me... They will try! Oh you betcha... they will TRY!
Just heard that the world's premier economist and prognosticator, Erin Burnett... will be on Meet the Press this Sunday to reassure the public that all is well.
It's so, so re-assuring to know that our fair Republic's mainstream media doesn't have to hear from curmudgeon outsiders like Tyler, Yves or Mish (yeah, those 3 don't always agree that's for sure... but on one thing they DO agree: the current paradigm isn't now working and isn't going to work!).
I liked Pollyanna too! But would be a little leery of her as an economics advisor.
Welcome to the world of Disney News!
(I mean no personal offense to either Erin Burnett or Haley Mills... in fact I find them both very appealing and would welcome a chance to see Ms. Mills on Meet the Press and Erin Burnett star in a re-make of Pollyanna.)
They'll just print more jobs and solve all of it.
On the other hand, the number is close enough to R A L L Y!!
hi, mr waffle. liked your article†
Not according to your independent, unbiased media:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-rate-down-to-94-as-103000-jobs-...
Marketwatch - where every headline is a happy headline.
Just came back from a movie and saw that headline and thought wow, more good news, things are on the up an up.
Everything is happy happy at Marketwatch. The probably have a sand pit, recess time, toys and happy meals, and blue BB pills.
9.4%? How many people dropped off the roles for that bogus number to be calculated.
That's the December figure, which Bernake will use to say that QE was a 100% success.
When a country becomes a banana republic, expect to see shocking official statistics...
Now we wait for the CNBS spinmisters... they can't deny that 250k people have simply vanished each month unless aliens took them!
Civilian Labor Force (000's)
November 2010 153950
December 2010 153690
...so the labor force contracted by 260k in one month. Welcome to the new normal.
Stephen Hawking's yellow octopi looking aliens must have taken them...
Pork prices are down. Just sayin...
WINTERBARBEQUE TIME!!!
Feed is too expensive, so pig farmers are liquidating much of their herds.
Enjoy it while it lasts.
Wash your mouth... Rodent!
Now, haven't I told you about giving those banksters ideas?
Soylent greenshoots?
The shysters can put all the spin they want on employment data. The piece of data they will not be able to spin will be sales tax receipts from all 50 states. If people don't have jobs, sales tax receipts will suffer. It is not surprising how deep the budget deficits are running in many US states. Maybe QE4 will address that on a broad scope (I think QE3 will target muni bonds in specific metropolitan areas).
USA = Total chickenshit
They want to print money and lie to us all about how "good" things are. There is no collective will power to take our medicine and enforce austerity. I figure The Ben Bernanke will be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year again before the collapse.
Fuck austerity...that is code for pay the bankers back the money they never had but lent anyway, plus interest.
Fuckit, print it. Nothing can change this outcome
+14 TRILLION! Amen borther!
Maybe the right answer is to hope for QE n to get the biggest implossion possible and the geater likelihood that mobs will rampage teh streets looking for banksters, corrupt congressmen and every regulator they can lay their hands on...especially the CFTC, where congressmen will be too shit scared to work against J6P who is sitting out the front door with his shotgun.
Sign me up! I've been calling for something like this for several years now! Until this happens there will be NO CHANGE!
I'd have to say somewhere between 500-700k..
Don't we get the birth-death adjustment this month?..
I originally read this as "bird-death" adjustment.
I luld
Here comes the spin brought to you by CNBS
Here comes the spin brought to you by CNBS
Yep, and to really fuc it up, they have former Fed, Meyer and Moody's, Zandi to provide "cutting edge" analysis.
Those fuctards couldn't make a dry ham sandwich right, let alone have the ethics, morals and intelligence to puke up an honest thought.
how can this be?
So what was up with the bogus 500k+ predictions? An excuse to slam gold?
They lowered the pool of workers...lol....so you don´t have a job for a couple of years....we just eliminate you.....but do you get free health care and food stamps.....right now food stamps is better indicator of our economy so far....they don´t get cut off of the benefits do they.....
bloomberg now talking bout "revisions" in the months ahead.....
and making all sorts of noise about how this is good, not bad.
jesus. when are we going to look reality in the eye?
i guess when JPM and GS think they've stolen everything they possibly can
I wonder if a memo was sent to all the major media outlets to spin every bit of news (good or bad) and cheerlead without ceasing. This sort of "groupthink" reminds me of the frenzy amongst neocons prior to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Every bit of data that doesn't support the view of The Machine is struck down with fervor.
Right? And the troll-fest on most ZH threads today, I'm thinking someone held a staff meeting...
no, they are all just holding their staffs up ^
like the middle finger ^^
"when are we going to look reality in the eye?"
Mariner Eccles answered that question this way: "Never. Not in your lifetime or mine."
Bearded Bennie sits in a building named after him.
Wow. Junked on ZH for calling out The Machine. Oh, the humanity...
Maybe a Goldman Blog Scout who couldn't resist the urge.
It will become clear once the site is renamed ZeroGoldman.com ;)
Could be. I wouldn't be shocked if they had a shyster judge (or two) issuing subpoenas to ISPs to reveal the identity of people posting anti-Goldy messages on such forums. I had better be careful before I get a cease-and-desist letter...
I don't know if you ever view the Yahoo! Finance message boards. The censorship on the Goldy board is something to behold. Certain new messages posted on that forum get wiped out with alarming speed. It is actually scary.
Makes perfect sense. What did you expect to happen when people are insulting the owners of the US on a yahoo board?
More bad news, BTFD
watch the market soar now
The markets are going up either way. If we lost 200,000 jobs or gained 200,000 jobs.
On one hand is great to see we are adding jobs but, you got to wonder if it really means anything.
I posted this before but its relevent, and important. http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
The number of places going under are staggering, considering its Sears, Kmart, BJ's... Crazy Times
Job creation data needs to be quantified. If white collar jobs with good wages and benefits are being replaced with low paying service jobs, that needs to be quantified.
look at the male vs. female rate within the data; it tells you pretty much what you need to know
Colleges and universities are pumping out more women graduates than men graduates these days.
yep...and I'm yet to see a woman up in a highrise building it, nor in one of those buckets by the high voltage lines when the power is out. Haven't seen a woman picking up trash (gfd what a hard job), still a 5:1 M/F ratio in engineering schools even with the massive crisis-level "outreaches" they do.
When mines collapse, either WV or Chile, where are the women? You got one token chick on "ax men" and she flat out can't cut it. If you want to compare "production" versus "service," your M/F UE ratio tells the tale.
Funny story here in Europe:
Because of the Dutch deficit and the need for more taxes, the Dutch government decided to TAX PROSTITUTION :)
SO:
Prostitutes are now officially part of the labor force and get unemployment benifits if they should lose their work :)
AND!!
YOU NOW CAN ASK FOR TAX RECEIPTS WHEN YOU VISIT A HOOKER!
look at the male vs. female rate within the data; it tells you pretty much what you need to know
Good point. I think way too many people fail to glean the worth of that spread. Females are in a recession, while males are in a depression (36% of construction workers across the U.S. are unemployed).
Hey, Shocker, don't know if that job cuts site is your work or not, but nice, plain stark reality of economic depression in layoffs, bankruptcies and closings. Excellent.
(No Shocker did not pay me to write that.)
ADP completely discredited? The Moodys and S&P of jobs calcualations?!
I would like to remind folks here that TD pooh poohed the ADP number as completely ridiculous and that certain folks here jumped all over "him" for that stance.
Now that "he" has been vindicated would those same persons like to lick the left boot or the right slipper?
I was thinking of exactly the same thing. Apologies needed here, especially from someone who gave a long speech about ethics, journalism and whatever. I can't be bothered to look for the poster now, but was something like "more critical thinking"
So the whisper number of 450,000 didn't pan out?
103,000???
By BLS(BS) methodology, that's like a half a million jobs lost, right?
Unleash Hell on my command!....err...I mean unleash QE 9.0, says The Bernank.
All that matters is that the "rate" is now 9.4%. That will be the headline number which the proletariat will see. They won't read the breakdowns in the articles. Only we geeks care about the details.
gold spikes up immediately: http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html
...and then gets smacked down. JPM are still on the case.
the gold/silver launch to the moon has been delayed for sixty days by the CTFC......for JPM to finish covering .....
ah, the joys of a corrupt government and its regulators. you have to wonder just how much JPM paid the CTFC members for this "favor".....
They moved the decision up to next week, actually.
... believe there's a 60 waiting period for public review and comment... "we understand Mr. Morgan but, after all, congress did pass a law and we're already very late!"
The good economic news will blowtorch gold all year, a large part of the price is built upon the doomer hyperinflation credit implosion' ... It has nothing to do with JPM, its 4 plus GDP.
Did Robotrader sodomize you?
Is you peoples spawing?
THURSDAY, JANUARY 6, 2011
Turd ...
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/looking-forward-looking-back....
lol, truth. i can just picture them feeding their infant prodigies little spoonfuls of hopium in their little highchairs while watching cnbc each morning.
Did you pick up "blowtorch" over on yahoo finance?
you know what's fascinating is that the Comex has now been completely discredited as a source of price discovery on gold and silver.
Premiums are skyrocketing at dealers -- if they have the metals. And my local dealer told me that he can't persuade his regulars to part with metals for anything near the Comex prices to stock his inventory. Its insane.
so, sell the hard stuff? Cause JPM tells me what its worth?
don't think so.
Eugenics, bitchez...oh, wait, that's next week.
Death to the NWO.
Love live teh NWO.
Best Buy revenue dips 1.6%
BB same store sales drop 4%
NFP worse than the number they sold.
We will end green today!
Yes we will.. 9.6 vs 9.4 is huge. Also, the bernank should give us a nice boost too
Double Post. Damn you ZeroHedge!
That's just the NSA monitoring your domestic terrorist ZH activity...
Silver has been repeatedly nuked for 4 days. Everybody was expecting a positive NFP number.
We will end green today....Soylent Green.
It's people, bitchez.
Soylent Green. Nice movie btw.
..Going longer biscuit and cracker producers..
(On the Fucking Dip - of course)
is soylent green like the color of the victoria river?
http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/12/30/victoria-river-mysteriously-turn...
#jesus. when are we going to look reality in the
pal, get real will yo?
owner of bloomberg sells financial information..
same time he's major of biggest financial center of world..
expecting honesty ? better luck find water on SUN.. :))
alx
3rd Term Bloom-douche
Declared himself Mayor-Pope of NY...
Legend in His Own Mind
I'm sure Bloom-douche will offer to rescue us by running for Prez in 2012...
How Giuliani-911-Turrets of him...
SO QE 3 is assured; S&P 1500 more likely than before.
Maybe even a Q4 too. No need to sell longs now. SnP 1500 is a lock. I just wish I didn't reduce my longs to 50% on Monday. Oh well, hopefully we get a few nice dips this year to add to.
Give me warp 9.5 on those printing presses Benny. I'm giving her all she's got captain, she can't take no more.
JPM and BAC up 2 cents
LVS up $1.60
AIG up $1.80
AMZN up $.78
PCLN still pinned at world record highs.
Gold and silver crushed
Mark Zandi looks like he is still using the tanning bed.
Not much has changed, jobs numbers appear to be a non-event.
BAC CDS wider. BAC 10yr bonds lower again, and 25 bps wider on the week. Credit indices all leaking post number.
Maybe Mozilo is throwing in tanning sessions as part of mortgage settlements.
"World record", give me a break.
Oh Robo you are such a shill.
Gold now up around $20 from $1350s to $1370s
Think of Geithner's remarks yesterday. He had to know the NFP number. Was it a tell? Would he have said what he said if he knew NFP was strong?
health care and service sector 'the only good news' and a half million off the cliff into a "non-statistical space"
Get that Barclay's guy back on!
9.4%. Right.
Nice call yesterday Barclays. Looking for 588,000 payroll gain. You were close.
Bloomberg reporting edges ever more closely towards CNBSC style denial-isn't-just-in-egypt propaganda.
More people fell off the cliff then lost jobs, this is great.
Death Panels, bitches.
into the meat grinder , bitches
.
Wow CNBC struggling to spin this in a good way now talking about how it will be ammended next month. It's like they were ready to break out the pom poms and don't know what to do now this number came out.
I know. It was amazing how they said the numbers were way too good and had to be an abberation.
Very suprising that they allowed so much negative guest commentary. That done, they returned to their sponsorship of the meme that fiscal discipline demands immediate social security reform. Such radically forward thinking about the most pressing issues . . .
DOW futures dropped from +30 to -50 in about 5 seconds then, IMMEDIATELY, ramrodded back to parity. They are now hanging at FV.
Wierd.
Down days have been outlawed.
Can't let terroristic-minded sellers outnumber buyers and burn the new American Capitalism of bid-ask on innovative and imaginative price-model theory.
You can thank L. Blankfein for that. Check your oil futures chart.
Rest assured, tonight Bernanke speaks. We're on track, more POMO interventions, whatever.
market will soar today, get in now at the lows of the day. If the bears can't take this down with a weak jobs number, they will cave in by mid-day at the latest and cover en-masse
Casinos, homebuilders appear to be the most popular sectors go get HeatMapped up today.
heat map your head
Still have TheBernank's cock in your mouth I see. Get your face out of his crotch, you'd be able to see the truth better.
Well that was underwhelming, I shall sell! Fuck no, rally on!
Wait! Let's just flop around like an epileptic at a rave! Superb idea!
I hate the NFP circus.
It certainly is... a complete sham/illusion to con people into thinking these things matter when all that matters is how many stops can be triggered/how many suckers can they catch who trade on fundamentals still to their complete detriment as the banksters steal their money yet again
Don't you realize the amusements and gambling sector added 16k jobs and that is really more important than any so called 'headline'? Okay, the talking heads haven't resorted to quite that level, but its ridiculous the selective choice of what data to use to make their 'bullish' arguments!
Is it just me or does anyone else feel a little wierd as to what is going on.....this number was BS...but futures level...gold and silver down...treasuries up?????? Dollar plunged...but right back up...HUH?
Gold/Silver popped about 1% after the jobs number came out....not much of a pop!
it's dog-eat-dog out there in my state, OHIO ......... we're fighting each other like low-life dogs just to get a damn $8/hour PANERA job !! ....... baking bread @ 4:30 a.m. , & be grateful for it, you dogs ........
I thought Panera was a short until you just said that stuff about them using slave labor.
Watching CNBC you never would have known how bad those numbers were.
Great news for stocks. Good news would have been horrible for the market because it would shut down the PPT and the Epsom printers. More Zimbabwe-pumping to drive the S and P to Goldman's target.
Buy buy buy !!!!!!
The piddling amount of jobs that are being created are mainly in the service sector, which equates to low paying barely livable wage. Eventually who will we serve if no one is producing?
The bailout girly men will be demanding service. Remember what they did in the kitchen?
Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses?
Did you hear about Ben outsourcing greenback printing to China?
spending trillions got us this number??
logic would dictate that 2 trillion more and
we would be at 9% UE with 10 million less workers in the pool..
UE continues to be a very scary canary but no one seems to care.
Bad news = Permanent POMO = Stocks soar on free money
Well, have to admit I never would have guessed the Ministry of Truth would ever put-out a semi-believable number. But here it is.
103K . After all the hyberbolic talk all we get is 103K ? Honestly , why do analysts insist on gambling their credibility with wild entirely unrealistic predictions . I'd love to see the reaction of those who were forecasting a print of close to half a million . Where was the basis for it ? Once again the ADP numbers have failed to be reflected in the NFP's . The ISM manufacturing employemnt index and the ISM non-manufacturing employment index both showed declines . This disappointing number ( relative to predictions ) really shouldn't be that surprising .
So this is how it felt in the U.S.S.R.....
.....aaaaaaaaaahhaaaaaaaa....
and they also went bust overnight "without any prior indication". ;)
"95% confidence interval" Man, that last 5% is a BITCH!!!!!!!!
The tails are now fatter than the supposed bell...
What the fuck is the dollar doing?
The US needs 125.000 job growth EACH MONTH, just to keep up with the birth and immigration numbers.
So unemployment went UP!!
+1
futures just went +, told ya so !!
Futures now green, unreal.
Nothing makes sense anymore.
Of course it makes sense...to the asswipes controlling it.
Just another reason to remain long this market. Debt ceiling will get raised and a very good chance of more QE's. Certainly someday it will end but it doesn't appear it's going to be any time soon.
well, at least it wasn't -500k, eh?
As Shakespear or some famous guy once said - "All the world...it's a fucking stage...ya' know?"
yeah, and the big boys are almost done positioning themselves to exit stage left.
That would've been extremely unexpected..
tyler your simply amazing, you had me @ ADP†
did you get my email?
..I suppose the logic is..if we can get past the bad, then we can make use of the good.
Strange why gold and silver are still not spiking
higher
because the heavily manipulated daily pricing isn't a reflection of its actual value?
ADP was close. Very predictive and useful tool that ADP report.
LMFAO...they're actually cranking the futures UP...
This is as crooked as my hound's hind leg.
Truly corrupt and absurd.
The report actually used the term "job losers."
LMAO!
It's all in the context, I guess.
Because the BLS fucks... as incompetent (statistically) as they are...
Are employed "job winners."