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Niall Ferguson And The Dollar, Margaret Brennan And The Red Dress
A very much... welcoming...Margaret Brennan discusses Niall Ferguson's opinion on the dollar, and his Fed policy outlook. Aside from the red dress, notable items include Niall's very astute observation that "Chimerica," which for all intents and purposes is a megalith sovereign, joined at the hip, and whose existence is predicated on the "non-defection" of the significant other in perpetuity, will continue to shift the pain of adjustment on the "developed world." Some very critical thoughts on why Europe and Japan are more than happy to be on the receiving end of the K-Y in the currency department so long as their markets obtain the benefit of the appreciating S&P.
One thing many pundits forget is that while the S&P indexed for the drop in the dollar, is flat, global markets, especially the eurozone, follow American equities tick for tick, indexed in domestic currencies (and the impact is magnified when reindexed for the double whammy of capital and currency appreciation). So, in essence, US dollar weakness, in addition to impaling the US middle class courtesy of a 10% loss in dollar purchasing power, is translating into completely unwarranted European market strength. One wonders (or not) why the G-20 is more than happy to perpetuate the daily raping and pillaging of the DXY.
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I'll bet this guy has nailed more coeds than Roubini. He's a good looking man for an economist.
ferguson is a historian. he does not engage in faux-scientific research himself, but rather put the history of faux-scientific research (i.e. economics) into historical context. some of his work has included independent data analysis but that is not what he's really up to.
great avatar!
Dufresne, don't think the point(s) of "dress" comment was the color.
Imho, tyler should have added a tag "the red dress" (and perhaps "the hot brit" but I digress).
In this market, one forgets what red looks like.
Ah-hah! I know who you are, Tyler. Identity revealed. You are a post-menopausal woman who has not seen the contents of my portfolio.
One also forgets what a bear looks like - They must have shorted
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1225042/Germanys-bald-...
Took a haircut, I love it!
Sad pic though.
zing !
That dress the shade of red you find in overstock bargain bins of T-shirts that no one wants.
And mumus.
Or coolaide.
He's much easier to listen to live. On scripted shows on PBS and the like, his speaking style is very stilted.
Middle class? We don't need no steenking middle class....
Shouldn't the rest of the world pay for our war against the bad muslems. Iraq was ready to fall to al quida. Saudi was next in line --- the domino effect .
Isn't this how the rest of the world paid for WW2?
And the 2 wars to stop Chinese aggression, Korea & Vietnam?
The world is better off
I just dont like the fact that Private Banks and the polititicians are spending and squandering so much at the same time the Fed is passing the hat.
It's as if GS and Obama/Soros wanted to break in on the action and turn our (US) system of exporting inflation to their own advantage with the last October surprise
have you read soros' latest? perhaps they're not as joined at the hip as you think?
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/soros52
Alex Jones and his new world order is starting to have some real credibility
or perhaps Soros has lost whatever cred he had
Alex Jones is starting to appear on network television.
From the aticle, Soros says "Obama has the right vision. He believes in international cooperation, rather than the might-is-right philosophy of the Bush-Cheney era. The emergence of the G-20 as the primary forum of international cooperation and the peer-review process agreed in Pittsburgh are steps in the right direction."
America has to send soldiers into action --- a high standard of living is the reward --- Soros & Obama want, thru Cap & Trade to distribute ths wealth --- With out wealth the US will not get American soldiers to sacrifice.
Soros' plan will rely on the UN -- and the merchants to preserve order --- it wont work IMHO
Mr Soros is one of carbon cap and trade’s critics. He explained at the London School of Economics last summer that the system “can be gamed; that’s why financial types like me like it – because there are financial opportunities”.
http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091013/BUSINESS/7...
Ah, dear George. We should be really glad we have George. He cares. So much so the multi-billionaire is sinking $5 million into the “health care reform" fight. It’s just another sign of the "urgency" gripping Soros and his “pro-health care” camp. Because, you see, he cares.
HCAN chief Richard Kirsch has confirmed that Soros made the pledge to Health Care For America Now, a leading coalition of pro-reform groups, unions and providers.
Soros also is helping to raise millions for the left-wing activist group MoveOn.org, verbally threatening Democrats who step out of line in the Soros Party. The group is after contributions to fund Primary challenges against any Democrat senator who does not fully support "health care reform with a public option." As of 11/06, MoveOn has raised $3,578,117 for the project and is “thinking of new ways to punish errant Democratic lawmakers.” Because, you see, they too care.
I'm in favor of all of that. The health insurance companies are rent seeking vampire squidlings as much as Goldman. They add no value, do the math, and please try to shake yourself out of the partisan propaganda you're a victim of. You are more capable than that.
Who let Soros in? Who opened the door for this guy? When entities such as Goldman Sachs take over the government, that opens the way for whole gangs of crooks to enter the system and take advantage. The takeover of the government by the financial system is the most significant reason why we’ve lost representative government, thereby opening the door to cash purchases of government programs by big lobbyist such as the drug makers, the trial lawyers, the insurance companies, and, not forgetting, the socialists.
It is a Congress on the make, a Congress on the take, a Congress for sale. And why is that? It’s because of the financial takeover of representative government. The crooks no longer are outside the government; they are the government.
JR, i still can't make the connection of where Soros fits into your equation. who let him in? he let himself in. he's a capitalist, he's got capital. and as much as you two seem to disagree on ideology, it seems to me that you both agree on your basic premise above.
"as the drug makers, the trial lawyers, the insurance companies, and, not forgetting, the socialists."
let's also not forget the oil companies, agri-business & the military-industrial complex. it's equal opportunity corruption.
you should really read soros' book open society, even if you do so with a critical eye. in fact, with a critical eye is the best way to read it. you might find more similarities with your POV than you might think. imho, take it for what it's worth, even if ZERO.
Soros: In his book “The Age of Fallibility,” Soros wrote, “The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.” He announced in 2003 that it is necessary to “puncture the bubble of American supremacy.” In the Atlantic Monthly of February 1997, he wrote, “The main enemy of the open society, I believe, is no longer the communist but the capitalist threat.”
“The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.”
and one could make a very strong argument in defense of this statement using the exact words you used above to describe the bond of rot between the USGov & corporate interests. personally, i believe that the US is simply the current face on an age-old human habit to dominate & domineer over others (and create countless justifications to do so). it's just ironic that the entire premise of this countrys' birth was in an effort to mitigate that very problem.
“The main enemy of the open society, I believe, is no longer the communist but the capitalist threat.” this is where i disagree with georgie. i believe it's more a fascist threat than capitalist one (i believe he forgets, intentionally or not, upon how he accumulated his wealth). but sometimes i wonder if even deeper than that, if it isn't a threat brought upon by all ideologies in and of themselves. if so, then perhaps it is time to let them go and begin to create new ones to enslave ourselves to?
JR...cheers...at least you tagged georgie on something that he actually funded that you don't agree with. no wish to get into a political debate, cuz i actually agree with you more than not, as i choose to believe that government as currently functioning IS the problem (plus moveon is a goon squad masked in a socially 'liberal' smiley face imo), however i do think it is important to be clear about the verifiable facts at all times no matter what position one takes.
as 'i on the ball patriot' says over on NC, 'deception is the greatest political force on the planet'.
thank you for pointing out Soros and his undemocratic activities and meddling in the US political and financial system. I cannot understand any defense of this man, nor his lackeys like Ken Rogoff and Nials Ferguson with their endless repetition of Soros think-tank talking points. I suppose if we don't go along with their suggestions for giving up even more sovereignty, our currency and economy will be hit as Malaysia's was. Thugs in suits. JMHO
respect your opinion oldbold, but does sovereignity require supremacy? and does supremacy overtrump survival of a country's own citizens?
and did soros/ferguson/et al create america's risk to its currency/economy/supremacy/sovereignity or did america by its own actions and that of its institutions (e.g. IMF)?
Niall is so hot..hmm hmm hmm.
I guess this guy is sort of the Mel Gibson of economists?
Who the hell spells Neal, Niall?
The "Knights who say Ni"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTQfGd3G6dg
MsCreant, you are amazing. I busted out laughing the instant I read that, thanks.
;-)
Deleted.
One really, really, shouldn't explain their joke.
NOT Americans..
Oh, lots of people: http://www.google.ie/search?q=niall
I have a lot of respect for Mr. Ferguson as I've read one of his books. This guy is definitely smart. That being said, I love these guys who say, "The dollar has about 20% more to slide." What evidence is there of this. As far as I'm concerned the dollar should slide another 50 percent and the rest of the paper currencies should slide 40 percent versus the gold price. All these paper currencies are virtually crap except the remimbi which is fixed to the US toilet paper.
Here is another recent Ferguson interview:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/357319/Niall-Ferguson-U.S.-...
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/357648/Wake-Up-Washington!-China-Is-Already-Dumping-the-Dollar-Niall-Ferguson-Says
Excellent. Watch the shift in Margaret's posture as the interview progresses. At the beginning she's leaned back, cocked to one side, full of herself. Look at the shape of her mouth as she forms words at the very beginning. He immediately knows what the game is and makes it plain he's not playing. He establishes and maintains perfect eye contact, his delivery misses not a beat. Later Margaret begins to lean forward and her head is now cocked towards him. By 0.34 seconds remaining she can't stand it anymore and begins trying to please him into a smile.
He wins. Perfect, well done Niall.
MB (10am - noon eastern on Bloomberg) is without doubt among the top talent on any of the 3 American finance networks - but this interview is not representative - it ranks with Chris Matthews leering at Burnette
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpxkKeNgbyU&feature=player_embedded
They are not patriots. They are men without a country. They are money men. They are intereted in selling their country for wealth. Who are they? They are the bankers and policy makers Niall Ferguson supports with his weak dollar defense.
David Malpass more than counters the argument for a weak dollar policy in this October 7, 2009 WSJ, Opinion piece: The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity: Measured in euros, U.S. per capita GDP is down 25% since 2000:
___________________
If you want to know why the dollar has been falling this week [of October 7] and gold hit a new high, look no further than the weak jobs numbers last Friday and the weak communique issued over the weekend at the G-7 meeting in Istanbul. Deploring "excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates" isn't exactly a ringing defense of the greenback. And 9.8% unemployment convinced markets that monetary policy will remain loose regardless of dollar weakness.
Bond buyer Bill Gross of the Pimco fund summed up the situation nicely in a recent CNBC interview. Asked whether low interest rates will weaken the dollar, the influential allocator of global capital said: "I think that's part of the administration's plan. It's obviously not announced—the 'strong dollar' is always the policy, so to speak. One of the ways a country gets out from under its debt burden is to devalue."
On the surface, the weak dollar may not look so bad, especially for Wall Street. Gold, oil, the euro and equities are all rising as much as the dollar declines. They stay even in value terms and create lots of trading volume. And high unemployment keeps the Fed on hold, so anyone with extra dollars or the connections to borrow dollars wins by buying nondollar assets.
Investors have been playing this weak-dollar trade for years, diverting more and more dollars into commodities, foreign currencies and foreign stock markets. This is the Third-World way of asset allocation.
Corporations play this game for bigger stakes, borrowing billions in dollars to expand their foreign businesses. As the pound slid in the 1950s and '60s and the British Empire crumbled, the corporations that prospered were the ones that borrowed pounds aggressively in order to expand abroad. Though British equities rose in pound terms, they generally underperformed gold and foreign equities. At the end of empire, the giant sucking sound was from British capital and jobs moving offshore as the pound sank.
Some weak-dollar advocates believe that American workers will eventually get cheap enough in foreign-currency terms to win manufacturing jobs back. In practice, however, capital outflows overwhelm the trade flows, causing more job losses than cheap real wages create. This was the lesson of the British malaise, the Carter malaise, the Mexican malaise of the 1990s, Yeltsin's Russian malaise through 1999 and the rest. No countries have devalued their way into prosperity, while many—Hong Kong, China, Australia today—have used stable money to invite capital and jobs.
The more the dollar devalued against the yen in the 1970s and '80s, the more Japan gained share in valued-added manufacturing, using the capital from weak-currency countries to increase productivity. China is doing the same now. It watches in chagrin as the U.S. pleads with it to strengthen the yuan, adding productivity fast with the dollars rushing its way in search of currency stability.
If stocks double but the dollar loses half its value, who beyond Wall Street are the winners and losers? There's been a clear demonstration this decade. The S&P nearly doubled from 2003 through 2007. Those who borrowed to buy won big-time. Rich people got richer, seeing their equity bottom line double. At the same time, the dollar's value was cut nearly in half versus the euro and other stable measures. Capital fled, undercutting job growth. Rent, gasoline and food prices rose more than wages.
Equity gains provide cold comfort when currencies crash. From the euro perspective, the S&P peaked at 1700 in 2000, finally reattained 1100 in the 2007 bubble, fell below 600 in March and now stands at 700 (see nearby chart [The U.S. Stock Market Has Underperformed: DAX Indexed to January 2000, S&P in Euros Indexed]). With most of the market capitalization of U.S. stocks held by Americans, the dollar devaluation has caused a massive decline in the U.S. share of global wealth.
Measured in euros (a more stable ruler than the ever-weakening dollar), U.S. real per capita GDP is down 25% since 2000, while Germany's is up 4% and tops ours.
The solution is a strong U.S. jobs and wealth program. It has to include stable money, a flatter, more competitive tax structure, spending restraint, and common-sense bank regulation so small business lending can restart. Treasury has to rapidly lengthen the maturity of the national debt and take steps to protect the Fed from market losses on its long-term debt holdings.
Instead, Washington's current economic program pushes capital away by weakening the dollar, threatening higher tax rates, borrowing short (the Fed's near trillion-dollar overnight debt, Treasury's mounds of bill and note issuance) to lend long (mortgages, student loans, entitlements), doubling down on government subsidies, and rechanneling bank loans to governments and big businesses instead of the small business job-growth engine.
It's possible global bond vigilantes will call Washington's bluff, reducing their bond purchases until we stop devaluing and restart job growth, which is the ultimate source of tax revenues to repay our bond debt. This would create a Volcker moment when the U.S. might tighten even as the economy slowed (as then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker did back in 1979).
But the accepted outlook is the almost-as-gloomy new norm. If all goes according to current plans, the dollar devalues slowly and bond buyers come back for more even as national debt heads toward $15 trillion. World living standards grow faster than ours, as does global wealth. The Fed chases inflation as the dollar sinks, but not so fast as to stop the recovery. More capital moves abroad, leaving U.S. unemployment too high too long.
A better approach would start with President Barack Obama rejecting the Bush administration's weak-dollar policy. This would invite capital and jobs to come back before interest rates have to rise.
Mr. Malpass is president of Encima Global LLC.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870329800457445892318694187...
"They are the bankers and policy makers Niall Ferguson supports with his weak dollar defense."
JR, sorry to be a stickler, but where does Ferguson support a 'weak dollar defense'? he seems to be against such folly (sometimes being the lone vocal opponent) everytime i've read or listened to him. if anything, he's simply observing & commenting on the phenonemon and recognizing it as a natural outcome of decades of mismanagement and waste courtesy of the USGov & the Fed.
if you can point out something to the contrary, please post.
“…where does Ferguson support a 'weak dollar defense'?
Q: “Is an unofficially weak dollar policy, is it the right policy; I mean, should it be the new norm?”
A: “It is the right policy for the United States. In fact, it’s rather hard to see what other mechanism the U.S. currently has to jump start this economy in a way other than endless fiscal stimulus.”
I don’t agree, Tip, that “Chimera is shifting all the pain of adjustment onto the rest of the world” as it appears Ferguson does, at least in this video.
The Fed and the American political system are unresponsive to the American people, responsive only to a few powerful interests that have monopolized the economy to benefit themselves. A nation cannot inflate its way out of depression magically by counterfeiting the quantity of its money to the breaking point, i.e. weakening the dollar at will. All Keynesians and Krugmans and Fergusons aside, the American people are suffering. They cannot collectively buy twice as much goods as before unless twice as much goods are produced.
If wages and savings and pensions don't keep up with the inflation, the benefactors -- the bankers and the government – will take it out of America’s hide, i.e. her standard of living.
As John Hospers said, "Inflation is the biggest killer of civilizations, even more than war itself." As Henry Hazlitt put it: "[E]very inflation must eventually be ended by government or it must 'self-destruct.'"
And that's exactly what's happening: America as we knew it is self-destructing.
The Fed is pushing America backwards. It is robbing Americans of their currency and skating past the dollar’s chances of remaining the world’s reserve currency. As an expert who doesn’t know why China’s currency is dropping, perhaps Ferguson just shouldn’t take a position on dollar policy..
Ferguson said: “A weakened dollar is going to boost American exports and that’s pretty much what you would predict given the imbalances that have existed… Nobody talks about it in Washington because actually it’s not such a problem for the U.S. and the weak dollar, which you actually have to translate as weak dollar when Americans say we want a strong dollar, well, the clue is this, the more American policy makers say that they believe in a strong dollar the weaker the dollar is likely to get…”
Q: "What is your outlook then on when the Fed should start hiking rates; it’s been almost a year now? "
A: "I doubt pretty much if the Fed has been massively impressed by that third quarter number which you mentioned earlier; it’s not a sustainable growth. There’s certainly nothing there that would argue for monetary tightening. So I think it will be steady as she goes and the language will be deliberately obfuscatory because they don’t’ want to commit themselves to a (unclear) exit. So expect nothing."
thanks JR. ok then, how do we reconcile those statements with something like this?
http://www.pen.org/viewmedia.php/prmMID/3878/prmID/1831
(fast forward to around 1:16:30 right after krugerrman)
either neill is speaking out both sides of his mouth (distinct possibility) OR there is something deeper that he is not saying, that is, there is no conventional solution to this current problem.
WARNING: this video contains the dark lord georgie porgie. ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK ;)
You can tell by the list of PEN panelists that it was either a setup against Ferguson or a miscalculation on PEN's part: Niall Ferguson, Paul Krugman, George Soros, Robin Wells (wife of Krugman and former research professor of economics at Princeton University), Senator Bill Bradley and Nouriel Roubini, with moderator Jeff Madrick (Madrick’s book, The Case for Big Government, was named a Finalist (runner-up) for the PEN Galbraith General Non-Fiction Award for 2007-2008; Madrick also is a past policy consultant for Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and other U.S. legislators) and introduction by Robert Silvers.
Thanks, Tip, for clueing me in to the video. Ferguson on this issue was marvelous. His point about the role of the private sector was elegantly delivered and the response of the other panelists, smirking and giggling, and the admitted bias of the moderator cutting him off in mid-speech, underscored the forces that are destroying this country. Thanks again.
By the way, it’s interesting—the sponsorship behind this discussion on the economic crisis facing America and the world at The Economic Crisis and How to Deal with It, a part of the 2009 PEN World Voices Festival:
Premier Sponsor
Penguin Group
Sponsors
Bloomberg
Borders
The Kaplen Foundation
LJK Literary Management
National Endowment for the Arts
Random House
Rodale
Roger Smith Hotel
Benefactors
The Bank of New York Mellon
Condé Nast Publications
The Diller-von Furstenberg Family Foundation
The Horace W. Goldsmith Foundation
HarperCollins Publishers & HarperStudio
Instituto Cervantes New York
The Martin E. Segal Theater, The Graduate
Center, CUNY
Steven and Ann Pleshette Murphy
The New York Review of Books
NYRB Classics
Daniel & Joanna Rose.
As to contributors:
http://www.pen.org/page.php/prmID/1821
di nada amigo. yes it was the smirking & giggling that clued me in that he was onto something. that's why i think in the bloomberg interview, he is trying to tell us what is happening and will be happening vs. what he believes should be happening (even though he may not have the right answer either, but who knows really?). instinctively though, he does make a lot of sense in that video and gets mad props for calling the boys out.
nice conversation today, thanks.
The trading floors of the world are littered with the bodies of traders who have shorted Japanese government debt in the belief that it simply must implode. While I believe that it eventually will, if they stay on the path they are on, Japan is a very clear demonstration that things that don't make sense can go on longer than we think.
Quote from John Mauldin who recently had drinks and great discussion with Niall.
chart continues to warn of a RALLY.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Ilargi likes you Tyler!!
The game is to break the Euro bloc, and to pull more economies into the de facto US Dollar bloc in order to service the liabilities of the US Dollar bloc.
At least that's what the arm-chair game theorist in me thinks.
If QE2.0 is announced and the Chinese offer little more than verbal protestations, then I take that as a sign the game is on.
Do you think they hooked up before or after the interview?
Amazing (or maybe not so amazing given the current administration) that the thieves and incompetents that got us into this mess have been given the money and authority to pass judgement on those businesses that are suffering because of them. i’d wager that most of the interest free loans go to their friends and family.
business loans
Niall had appeal.
Not full of himself. Easy going. Not loud, dramatic, or hysterical. The accent is cute.
He is not an anchor though so you don't get to tune in regular, like the guys do for their favorite female anchors.
Man lovers, this may be as good as it gets.
[Grumble, where is my hot, rugged, mature, anchor with wit, depth, and breadth?]
The comments against George Soros are just jealous comments from hypocrite socialists who haven't even read the man's books or beliefs.
MsCreant, I am with you Niall is yummy.
margaret brennan just may be hottest talking head in bizness television right now
and its great she left the bastion of biactches known as cnbc
It looks like the Euro will be moving lower against the US dollar over the next months and that should cap upside for a while.
It all has to do with interest rate differentials and relative economic growth. And it creates volatility in the currencies and b extension to the stock markets.
There is a way to profit through from the ups and downs of the markets: use timing signals to figure out when to get in and when to get out.
time123
admin: http://invetrics.com
While checking out Niall's website, I clicked on a link to an essay that sounded interesting. When I got to the page, it had a dark green background and black type which made the thing unreadable. http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/ArticleItem.aspx?pageid=219
So, then, I decided to print it out. That failed, too, because the font size that came out was about 6pt. Superman would've gone blind trying to read it.
Bottom line: Gekko was right. These Harvard types aren't worth shit.
Brett,
Take your cursor, as if you were going to cut and paste, and move it over blocks of text. It will make the background white and the print dark. I agree the design is stupid, but you can read the article.
Ferguson is certainly a good pop historian. Not really sure of his economist credentials - but could he be any worse than Krugman ?
His latest book "The Ascent of Money" is defintely worth a read.
http://www.amazon.com/Ascent-Money-Financial-History-World/dp/0143116177/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257945085&sr=1-3
Hard to tell if Niall was in fact "In search of a "Shrubbery" or not" (LOL) (Nod to MiCreant).
Niall is in a class all by himself. The camera does him no justice. Extremely handsome in person...:-)
Sqworl's out hunting for nuts.
I apologize for being sooo crude, but sometimes when I see a set-up like that, it is impossible to resist...
Not a problem at all...nice warm chestnuts for this sqworl...:-)..I felt like Wanda when I met him and he spoke to me!!! lol
That guy's accent is as fake as Ben Bernanke's concern for middle America.
Margaret simply doesn't understand, a good half of the interview is wasted with Niall going back over ground. I would have liked to see where a brighter person could have led this interview.
Wahoowa
Niall's basic thesis is this: WW2 marked the death of the west and ascent of the east. Sadly. Thanks FDR! THanks Stalin/USSR! "Liberators" of the workers. So sad.
European market strength is not the same thing as economic strength. A weak dollar means goods made in Europe go up in price which would be bad news for the likes of Germany. A weak dollar means europe will be flooded with cheap chinese goods replacing domestically made goods. Europe would be left with no choice but to ship manufacturing jobs to china.
I would typecast Niall for the next double-O 7 move but that's a side issue.
It has been said by many that the U.S. export position is not all happy pappy. Do I need to say more.
This dollar depreciation/inflation later politics, if you may call it that, isn't founded on strong but on weak "angst" politics.
Noah Rosenblatt says on November 23, 2008 already: “In my opinion, the fed IS printing its way out of a deflationary spiral with hopes to inflate us out of this mess.” http://tinyurl.com/ylc4tc5 I wrote on January 22, 2009: “The will try to inflate themselves out of debt!” http://tinyurl.com/ygtr2ho Marshall Auerback says on 8 May 2009: Bernanke has to continue to make hawkish comments about inflation so as to avoid a complete blow out in bond yields, but the the dirty little secret is that inflation is the way out of the debt trap, along with dollar weakness. Both reduce the real cost of debt servicing. http://tinyurl.com/yko4tw6