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Niall Ferguson On Whether The Financial Crisis Will Lead To America's Decline And A Glimpse Of The "Post-Pax Americana" Dark Ages

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Two weeks after we presented Niall Ferguson's video lecture - "Empires On The Verge Of Chaos" to tremendous reader response and almost 30,000 views, we follow up with another must watch video presentation, this time highlighting the intellectual rigor of Ferguson, David Gergen and Mort Zuckerman. The topic once again is the Financial Crisis, and specifically how, why and whether it will lead to America's decline. Of particular note is Ferguson's spot on characterization of the primary deficiency in the so-called brains of economists, namely that they see patterns, equilibria and stable systems where there are absolutely none: i.e., in the complex (as in Lorenzian) world of economics: "Complex systems look like they are in equilibrium, but they are not: they are constantly adapting, highly decentralized, interdependent systems and this process of adaptation can continue for quite a long time. And you think to yourself when you look at it, that's in a wonderful equilibrium. That's how we think about the economy. That is how economists teach economics. They talk about it in terms of equilibrium. The bad news is that in fact we inhabit a complex system that has virtually nothing to do with the neoclassical model that you are taught in Econ 101. And that's why the economists failed to predict the financial crisis... For me American power if you generalize beyond the realm of finance through the geopolitical system is a perfect example of a highly complex system which looks like it is in equilibrium but like all the great empires of the past is quite close to the edge of chaos. And our nightmare scenario should be that something happens to us like happened to the Soviet Union... It suddenly just falls apart. And I think the trigger, the catalyst if you want to switch to chaos theory the butterfly in the tropical rainforest that flaps its wings and posits the distant thunderstorm is going to be the credibility of fiscal policy. That just seems to me like the obvious place where things can turn nasty, and they turn nasty with amazing speed."

And another highlight clip: Will the post-American world be the new Dark Ages?

Must watch hour long video for a slow holiday.

Full program by segments:

01. Introduction      05 min 08 sec
02. Financial Crisis Accelerated West to East Power Shift     07 min 50 sec
03. American Business Culture Is Healthy     06 min 44 sec
04. Threat of Rapid Decline    03 min 53 sec
05. Complexity Theory and National Strength    02 min 30 sec
06. Debt and Stimulus    03 min 22 sec
07. Innovation Only Helps by Creating Domestic Jobs    02 min 59 sec
08. Growing Education Gap    02 min 38 sec
09. A World Without a U.S. Superpower    04 min 55 sec
10. Q1: U.S. Headed Toward Capitalism or Socialism?    02 min 48 sec
11. Q2: What Happened to Budget Surplus    02 min 00 sec
12. Q3: Coping with China Graduating Thousands of Engineers    02 min 37 sec
13. Q4: How to Manage the Deficit    05 min 05 sec
14. Q5: Low Birth Rate in China    02 min 52 sec
15. Q6: Federal Reserve and Treasury Contribution to Crisis    03 min 26 sec

 


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Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:51 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

One of Prechter's subscribers?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Ferguson's one screw up: When asked should it come from taxes or government reduction he should have been clearer that it really ought to come from essentially all government reduction since it is the source. I fall into the camp, however, that we ought to tax the crap out of everybody and pay COD if necessary as a reminder that we are squandering the money. It is only by paying the real cost that we can understand the real cost. I also do grow weary of the children-grandchildren argument: We are gonna get reamed before they can even inherit this mess. Niall gets that part spot on.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:04 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

Ferguson's solutions seem to be run-of-the-mill neoliberalism.

I don't know why people forget the basic lessons of classical economics: tax the Hell out of unearned income, and give incentives for earned income.

Adam Smith, Ricardo, Keynes, and all the great economists before WWII all said the same thing: unearned income (i.e. rentier state) is a burden on the economy. We need to give incentives to workers and direct investment.

Instead, all discussion, including the discussion above, is all about blaming the working class and punishing them for not working hard enough.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:14 | Link to Comment packman
packman's picture

Just wondering - what's your estimate of what % of income is rentier state income?  And what is that estimate based on (e.g. what's the basis for what you consider to be rentier state income)?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:23 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

In the US?

100 pc. The US is living off their USD hegemony. Rent.

Looks at all the US afford to do (and cannot afford not to do by the way) thanks to the USD position.

The USD is the ultimate rent for the US.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 19:37 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

I agree that technology and entrepreneurship are what is going to get us out of this.

Government policy seeks to suppress technology and entrepreneurship, because government is non productive and is supported by huge multinational corporations, who have the resources to afford immense bribes to influence government policy. These huge corporations insure suppression with capital, all to maintain their positions at the top.

It is the culture of self preservationism and corporate protectionism; which is in and of itself, maladaptive.

This is also reflected in the actions of governmental self policy, as its actions are a self exaltation and public servitude, without regard to the long term, bigger picture. Government seeks to bloat the ranks of itself, and thereby expanding its own influence, and it also uses this tactic for self preservation.

The solution is to reduce dramatically, or eliminate the influences of large international corporations on the political process, by limiting and tracking political contributions, and adapting policies that foster technological innovation and small business growth.. not maintaining unsustainable entitlement programs.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 19:52 | Link to Comment Jerry Maguire
Jerry Maguire's picture

Unfortunately, it is only the law that will get us out of this.  Constitutional law.  As in an amendment:

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com

About five posts there for review.

 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 01:00 | Link to Comment Malcolm Tucker
Malcolm Tucker's picture

Here is a Chilean telling David Rockefeller that he's not welcome in Chile:

http://fedupmontrealer.blogspot.com/2011/01/david-rockefeller-gets-welcomed-in.html

Maybe it has something to do with the alleged Pinochet collaborator who gets in the car with him!

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 08:00 | Link to Comment OddFieldIsStrong
OddFieldIsStrong's picture

I have junked you - why are you spamming with the same ot comment on every post?

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 08:17 | Link to Comment creviceCaress
creviceCaress's picture

send lawyers guns and money

 

unfortunately, the constitution said 'i'm going to disneyworld!"  and wont be available for an amendment.........dewd you gotta get off this law crap.im sure you actually think/believe this is the way to go.....but you're deluded.  quit being a lawdog, it's better for your health

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:22 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

66-and if you say :O

If by "technology and entrepreneurship are what is going to get us out of this."

you mean some kind of growth, then right on!  Only way out of the burning theater watching the "everything is unsustainable, the world will end" movie.  The 1946++ example, that included slurping down the excess (might one say 'unsustainable') spending all through the '30s and even through WWII.

Mal-adaptive? Check!

Complete disclosure (that is, even eliminating the money bundling monks with 'no controlling legal authority')? Check!

Contribution limits? Nyet!, but see above full disclosure.  (Both on libertarian grounds and on the fact that the Supremes ruled and on the fact that the fraud is already embedded, so it can only hurt outsiders).

The only way (as you posit) to reduce the influence of the international corporations is to remove barriers to entry for newbies; then they (newbies) march or die. e.g.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7z691yC9pc

- Ned

OT, sorta' I'm in Houston tonight listening to the doo-gooder city trying to "license" soup kitchens to meet "standards" because someone might become "sick".  Just a "no charge" registration with some city "training".

D'Ya think the churches have no clue as to how to feed folks?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Well said. True and right.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:26 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

I haven't done the numbers, so I can't answer that.

But that's not the point. The fact that capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than even poor, working class income is the exact wrong set of values, and bad economics.

And that's just one obvious example.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:56 | Link to Comment blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

By God, add to that the number of CEO's, bankers, et al who deliberately (and liberally)delay pay, options, etc in order to claim capital gains tax instead of ordinary income tax and you have a crimethat the government has know about for years and, once again, turns it's blind eye to it...to many pals are doing it, you know...mustn't mess with our friends.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:42 | Link to Comment rawsienna
rawsienna's picture

fyi .  delay pay, optiosn, restricted stock, etc are all taxed as INCOME in the year it vests.  THere are a lot of messed uped shit in the tax code but that is not one of em.  

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 10:02 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Thank you. True and right.

Are these people lying deliberately or is it just the ignorance of the left?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:58 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Those with capital gains can always take their ball and leave, should they find business conditions hostile here. We see this in the number of businesses that have left California for other states such as Nevada, and Arizona.

Additionally, and simplistically, if we tax the homeowner/lessor, who pays the taxes? The homeowner? No, the Lessee does.

Jealousy, and social engineering are not the solution.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:32 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

This has nothing to do with jealousy (I'm guessing you meant "envy"). This is all about good economics. Do you really think that Adam Smith, David Ricardo, et al were talking about envy when they created their theories? Please.

It's about rewarding behavior like hard work and smart investing and things that help the economy in general, and removing the incentives for things like land speculation. If you really want to call that "social engineering" then I suggest that punishing armed robbery is also "social engineering".

As for those with capital gains, they won't do that if their rewards for building factories and starting businesses in a thriving economy are far greater.

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:23 | Link to Comment the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Agreed. I was chatting with an upwardly mobile bank exec recently who told me how he can't wait to live of his capitals gains and not have any earned income to pay ahigher rate on. If you're wondering....yeah, I punched him.

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 10:02 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

"Jealousy, and social engineering are not the solution"

I agree; both have got us where we are today re unpayable promises.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:19 | Link to Comment packman
packman's picture

The fact that capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than even poor, working class income is the exact wrong set of values, and bad economics.

Well I wouldn't say that capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than poor, working glass income; since the latter is generally near zero due to our tax brackets (at least at a federal level).  However I definitely agree in principle that capital gains and/or rentier income (whether the two can be lumped together is pretty subjective and situation-dependent) should be taxed at the highest rate.  For short-term (less than a year) it is; but it should be for long-term as well; probably even moreso for short term (especially in the case of HFT; in which case it should probalby be close to 100%!)

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:25 | Link to Comment packman
packman's picture

The fact that capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than even poor, working class income is the exact wrong set of values, and bad economics.

Well I wouldn't say that capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than poor, working glass income; since the latter is generally near zero due to our tax brackets (at least at a federal level).  However I definitely agree in principle that capital gains and/or rentier income (whether the two can be lumped together is pretty subjective and situation-dependent) should be taxed at the highest rate.  For short-term (less than a year) it is; but it should be for long-term as well; probably even moreso for short term (especially in the case of HFT; in which case it should probalby be close to 100%!)

But I'm not sure why Hudson says that about the commissions proposal.  The proposal does away with special rates for capital gains and dividends.  I assume that means that they'll be raised to be equal to income tax.  I'm not sure why Hudson (and you) disagree with that.

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:54 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

There is a tendency to only look at income taxes when looking at what the poor pay in taxes, and forgetting to look at regressive payroll taxes. The wealthy pay almost nothing percentagewise in payroll taxes, while the taxes the poor pay are almost exclusively payroll taxes.

As for the commission, I believe Hudson criticized it for what it didn't address, rather than what it did.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:25 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

You should consult with John Edwards on this subject, he seems to have come up with some kind of mastery on the subject.

- Ned

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:50 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Interesting proposition, but how does taxing unearned income affect entrepeurship? What defines unearned? Governemt income is largely unearned except if you wholly believe that might makes right.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:38 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

This is from a ZeroHedge article:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/adam-smith-critiques-deficit-reduction-...

And the century of free market economists who followed Smith would have said, “Tax away unearned rentier income. And do not pay creditors by selling off the public domain to rent-seeking privatizers erecting tollbooths on the economy.” That was precisely the legacy of feudalism that free-market theory was designed to reject, after all.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:58 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

"The Horse that works the Hardest, gets whipped the most to work even Harder."

 

Old Confucius proverb

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Hollow_Point
Hollow_Point's picture

Yep, WTWB......Whip The Willing Boy.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

My concern about Fergie is how in bed with the Rothschild cabal he is.

"Back at the KPC mine Rothschild was unconcerned. He told me that speed was the reason for the deal’s success. “I think the fact we’ve done something quickly is heartening to the people who put money in Vallar.” He was also sure he and the Bakries would get along fine, regardless of the size of their respective shareholdings or alleged misdemeanours. His attention turned back to his BlackBerry where he was busy trading texts with Niall Ferguson, the historian and biographer of the Rothschild family, who was staying at his house in Switzerland."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3a8cd690-1ebd-11e0-a1d1-00144feab49a.html#axzz...

 

 

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:43 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

inf--you had me with:

"My concern about Fergie is how in bed with the..."

and I had a flash back to Maggie:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/niall-ferguson-and-dollar-margaret-bren...

[ed. start at about 1:10 to go]

- Ned

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Caged Monkey
Caged Monkey's picture

edit- double post.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Caged Monkey
Caged Monkey's picture

My how quickly we forget. This is, after all, the same Niall Ferguson who said this:

 

"I think if anybody understands this crisis, it’s Ben Bernanke.   After all, he dedicated most of his life to studying the great depression.   And, we’re really lucky that he’s in that job.   His predecessor, Alan Greenspan, in many ways screwed up.  You could say that the bubble was in large measure a result of his negligence, when he didn’t raise interest rates early enough, and let the real estate market go crazy.  But we’re quite lucky, because Bernanke has got this right so far.   And my great fear is that congress is gonna get power over the Fed.  That’s the nightmare scenario – that we have those crazy people on the hill starting to control monetary policy.  Then I really will go back to Britain." - N.F., Real Time With Bill Maher, 7/31/09, discussing Ron Paul's resolution to audit the fed.

 

He gets some of this stuff right and yet is still a Fed apologist. It's like having one good eye; he still has no depth perception.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 14:09 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Quote:  It is only by paying the real cost that we can understand the real cost. Unquote

 

I agree. Been carping about that since the 1960s.

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 09:52 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Quote: It is only by paying the real cost that we can understand the real cost. Unquote

I would restate this: It is only by every individual's paying the real cost of everything he or she uses or consumes and every benefit he or she receives "from government" (which really comes from every taxpayer, not from government at all, thus does not benefit the country as a whole but only the receivers of "free" benefits)... etc.

And for those who junked Thomas' comment, eff you and go shit up a rope, you are too stupid to understand what's happening.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:52 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-lMyaSHsd8

no more dreaming as if death it self had been undone... no more dreaming!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:17 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

really enjoyed listening to all of this, thank you zerohedge. once again, you guys run the best site on the web.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

Funny,I turned it off as soon as I saw Mort Zuckerman.That video was tripe.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:59 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

.

 

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:01 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by gwar5
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 12:52
#882057

 

Yep, I've said for 2 years the USA will following the pattern of collapse of the USSR and American influence and empire will be broken up. The effect on geopolitics will be enormous and despots around the world will no longer be held in check.

Good night, and good luck.

**********************************************************************************

Why? cause you want it real, real, real, real, real, real bad to happen?

Are you going to call upon the alien gods to come and crush the ignorance that you swim in?

How IN THE FUCK IS IT OVER?

You sound like a fucking sheep.

here... have a song to jam too... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWOyfLBYtuU&feature=related

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:27 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

To the contrary.. it sounds like you're too chicken shit to let it go and you want the dog and pony show to keep going real, real, real, real, real, real, bad. I want this stuff to stop as in YESTERDAY (and that would pretty much mean the collapse before the reset). But if you want to let the elitists fist your ass with a grapefruit, then you go first. I'll watch and then sell the video on the internet.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Loved it!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:15 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

Yes, collapse then reset is our only hope. The alternative is North Korea or worse.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:02 | Link to Comment mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

"Fist your ass with a grapefruit..."  Did he really say that?  Damn.  That is some gooood stuff, there.  +1000!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:05 | Link to Comment mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:54 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Smooth as silk ladies and gentlemen.

Please note the top three stories. Full court press of bad news.

Known as the numbing down of the audience. We are clearly at the edge of another shock and it will (always does) come out of left field.

A black swan?

It casts no shadows.

 

Meanwhile, all you constitutionalists, digest this:

If you don't believe read Padelford, Fay & Co. vs. The Mayor and Aldermen of the City of Savannah. 14 Georgia 438, 520 which states " But, indeed, no private person has a right to complain, by suit in court, on the ground of a breach of the Constitution, the Constitution, it is true, is a compact but he is not a party to it."

 

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/16/time-faster-now/

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:03 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

for someone who is media savy, you sure do post some stupid shit.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

For someone whos is a stupid shit, you do a fine act of being media savvy.

ORI

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:08 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

hey, settle down tonto... i told you i would have your beads and fire water next week.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:17 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Racism FAIL.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:26 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

are you a hater of hatred?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

No, just asshole trolls who belong on Yahoo Finance. People, you are better off not even responding to this dope. ORI, I look to your insight more than most here at ZH. Don't get drawn in, maybe the child will find another sandbox to play in.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:47 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

+1. 
And the wormy little shit had two spelling errrors among his diatribes over on the Wiki thread.
Who's crazy now?  Attention to detail is what gets the real job done.  Phaethum that one out.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

Agreed.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Thanks AM and good to know.

ORI

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:19 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

I second AM. Forget the prick. Disagreement is fine; but by playing stupid racial crap he excludes himself from serious discourse.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:46 | Link to Comment perchprism
perchprism's picture

 

Wait a minute, this troll is JW n Florida, not long-time poster, JW In Florida.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

ORI , hang in there, dont let the bastards get you down.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:25 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Absinthe Minded
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:35
#882150

 

No, just asshole trolls who belong on Yahoo Finance. People, you are better off not even responding to this dope. ORI, I look to your insight more than most here at ZH. Don't get drawn in, maybe the child will find another sandbox to play in.


by LFMayor
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:47
#882172

+1. 
And the wormy little shit had two spelling errrors among his diatribes over on the Wiki thread.
Who's crazy now?  Attention to detail is what gets the real job done.  Phaethum that one out.


by Mark Medinnus
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:47
#882173

Agreed.


by Oh regional Indian
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:50
#882183

Thanks AM and good to know.

ORI


by merehuman
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:12
#882232

ORI , hang in there, dont let the bastards get you down.

******************************************************************************** what are you lil cunts a high school gang? fucking bunch of cheerleaders! LMFAO

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:51 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

WOW - I am fucking impressed. How'd you cut & paste that string of comments? You must, for sure, be a fuckin' genius. Now run along back to Momma, and on the way home, don't forget to go fuck yerself.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:35 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

i like you JW, i was a H.S. cheerleader, really :- ]]

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 20:38 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

your a funny girl... but you cold weather girls are to warm blooded... does that make sense? to you?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Neuromancer
Neuromancer's picture

PLEASE stop quoting comments in your replies. The conversation is already threaded. If you feel the need to reply to a specific poster, then just use their name. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 20:40 | Link to Comment lumen ex lumine
lumen ex lumine's picture

Or, as they say, "Nolite te bastardes carborundorum"


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 20:57 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

or "Nolite te caseus bastardes carborundorum"

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:25 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I hate collectivism and stupidity, both of which you exhibited in your post.  He's not an American Indian.  He's from INDIA, you moron.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:00 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

I reallly wish they would get a room.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:38 | Link to Comment Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

Wrong continent.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

hey, settle down tonto... i told you i would have your beads and fire water next week.

 

Funny comment. Has been part of the problem since the beginning.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Confused
Confused's picture

I junked you. You shouldn't be posting here. You should be watching TV. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

As opposed to your far more insightful shit. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:58 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Yep, I've said for 2 years the USA will following the pattern of collapse of the USSR and American influence and empire will be broken up. The effect on geopolitics will be enormous and despots around the world will no longer be held in check.

What we have now is similar to people in suits on the Titanic trying to steal the silver as the ship is still going down.  Good night, and good luck.

.

 

 

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:01 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

by gwar5
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 12:52
#882057

 

Yep, I've said for 2 years the USA will following the pattern of collapse of the USSR and American influence and empire will be broken up. The effect on geopolitics will be enormous and despots around the world will no longer be held in check.

Good night, and good luck.

**********************************************************************************

Why? cause you want it real, real, real, real, real, real bad to happen?

Are you going to call upon the alien gods to come and crush the ignorance that you swim in?

How IN THE FUCK IS IT OVER?

You sound like a fucking sheep.

here... have a song to jam too... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWOyfLBYtuU&feature=related

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

JW, after experiencing the Fall of 08, how is this so hard to imagine? Only thing that stopped a complete collapse in 08 was Paulsen stepping in and guaranteeing EVERYTHING, which we now know is impossible to do. Complex systems do fail at the speed of light...

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:27 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

hulky... i am trolling... fishing... leave me to my fun bro... no pussy around the house and I have way to much energy on hand... I am just burning off a little steam... I havent switched sides.. just trying to help the idiot spell out why is all.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:38 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Find some pussy JW, quicklike!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

@jw..something like this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9k36P4Ljsn4

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:16 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

nice... i needed that! thanks bro.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:32 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Hulk
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:38
#882158

Find some pussy JW, quicklike!

*******************************************************************

thanks bro... i just miss that bitch... i dont sleep, dont fucking eat... fuck an a.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

World is full of woman JW, remove yourself from in front of your computer and go find yourself one. (she should be willing, of course...)

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:58 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

go find the hydro power video i just posted for you... it may come in handy.  

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:15 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

wish I had enough head for hydro, but I don't...

Cinnamon girls JW.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAdtUDaBfRA&feature=related

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:29 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Folks don't remember the old JW.  I do.  He could be very unpleasant at times.

You've done a superb job at replicating his mood and direction.

Carry on!

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 20:31 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

rocky i would have guessed that you would know better by now?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:04 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

JW, I'm of a mind that the last pussy you had was around your neck.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:33 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

yes sir... lil mommy naughty stuff.. how very roman of you. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Neuromancer
Neuromancer's picture

JW - PLEASE stop quoting comments in your replies. The conversation is already threaded. If you feel the need to reply to a specific poster, then just use their name. 

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Fora.tv also has:

Uncommon Knowledge: Basic Economics with Thomas Sowell

http://fora.tv/2010/12/14/Uncommon_Knowledge_Basic_Economics_with_Thomas...

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:04 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:03 | Link to Comment SlipStitchPass
SlipStitchPass's picture

 When Ferguson was asked about hyperinflation and if it would happen in the US he stated that there was more to the USA than just its "currency" it has a rock solid "rule of law" to fall back on to save it. I found this comment to be asinine at best. Where has he been as the rule of law in this country has been subjugated to worthless by the banking elite?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:07 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by SlipStitchPass
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:03
#882076

 

 When Ferguson was asked about hyperinflation and if it would happen in the US he stated that there was more to the USA than just its "currency" it has a rock solid "rule of law" to fall back on to save it. I found this comment to be asinine at best. Where has he been as the rule of law in this country has been subjugated to worthless by the banking elite?

***********************************************************************************

I love the tone... that you ex-republicans... who just now, this fucking second discovered what a calculator is... and used for... have an opinion....

 

When you voted your boy in.... you should have known he was stupid and anti establishment... wait you did know... thats why you voted him in... and now... all of the sudden you dont like your own handy work.

 

Fuck you, LIE to me, tell me you voted for Gore.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:12 | Link to Comment SlipStitchPass
SlipStitchPass's picture

Has nothing to do with Democrats or Republican anything. You make no sense.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

He's drunk, (PWI) posting while intoxicated.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:28 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Rusty, I dont drink.. and I dont go to meetings... now do see why?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

ahh, well you've got some real problems then, I recommend that you start drinking immediately.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment FatFingered
FatFingered's picture

...or going to meetings of some sort.  Testicular cancer or TB support group, something.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 19:56 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Nothing is more irritating than a dry drunk.

Too bad, as he has a point or two.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:33 | Link to Comment SlipStitchPass
SlipStitchPass's picture

 Thank you. Fuck. Been reading this site for a year and decide to throw up a post because I am at home chillin and the market is closed. I thought for a second i had gone into the twilight zone.

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:57 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

nah, just ZH....visted by aliens on occasion, so it seems like TZ

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:32 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

this has nothing to do with you voting republican? thats what you tell yourself at night... I want all the votes for that election... a 3 strike rule should be in effect...

strike one, off the gold standard... http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=president+nixon+republican&aq=1v&aqi=g1g-v2g-o1&aql=&oq=president+nixon+repu&pbx=1&fp=ddb181364976507e

strike two, structured debt products... http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=president+reagan+republican&aq=1v&aqi=g1g-v2&aql=&oq=&pbx=1&fp=ddb181364976507e

Strike three, lil bush... trying to crush the welfare house system accidently set of a fucking earth quake.

So how many strikes you got stupid? be honest... take your punishment like a man...

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Keep pushing buttons on him! 10 bucks says in a couple hours he'll spin a bearing and get arrested for humping the neighbor's lab with nothing but a Milli Vanilli concert shirt on.  All of these BDS types are put together like a crocheted rubber.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:18 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

your funny.. i will give you that.. but content is everything. or in most cases its not, i dont lean on those that seem weak... i lean on those who i would like better content from... and if i need to be the bad guy to get the content that i think furthers all of our combined goods, i will do so. plainly.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:15 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

You aren't really a democrat, are you.  Is your goal to make something political?  Chum to idiots who feel like there is a difference between the two parties beyond the rhetoric?  You are either a liar or an idiot. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:19 | Link to Comment SlipStitchPass
SlipStitchPass's picture

Not sure if you are replying to me? I wrote in Ron Paul in the last presidential election. You are correct there is no difference between the parties at this point. Same agenda. The best way to control a people is to divide them into two groups and play them off of each other.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:33 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

No... not you.. JW in FL.  I suspect (though I feel somewhat crazy as I write this) that there are some who post here with no other goal than to divert attention towards some sort of Republican vs. Democrat argument.  They seem so overt in their attempts that they at times seem like cartoon characters.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:33 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by kridkrid
on Mon, 01/17/2011 - 13:15
#882099

 

You aren't really a democrat, are you.  Is your goal to make something political?  Chum to idiots who feel like there is a difference between the two parties beyond the rhetoric?  You are either a liar or an idiot. 

********************************************************************************

this will me my 1 millionth and 1 posting of http://www.opensecrets.org/

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

So if you are just being an ass to be an ass, but you recognize that there isn't a good guy vs. a bad guy in the R vs. D debate, what about this post...

 When Ferguson was asked about hyperinflation and if it would happen in the US he stated that there was more to the USA than just its "currency" it has a rock solid "rule of law" to fall back on to save it. I found this comment to be asinine at best. Where has he been as the rule of law in this country has been subjugated to worthless by the banking elite?

 

Makes you want to be a troll?  Maybe you are drunk.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:23 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

kridkrid,

the problem is well beyond the banking focal point, false flag issues presented... it is population management, which I am fine with... truely! except, that the quarterly bonus mentality has grown pedestrian.. in the sense that everyone's doing it... there are no long term concerns being taken into account.

So the bankers!!!!!! or do you mean investment bankers with a 0% FED window? under the guise of a real banker? I am not trying to be a dick, it just comes out that way sometimes..  

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Neuromancer
Neuromancer's picture

JW - PLEASE stop quoting comments in your replies. The conversation is already threaded. If you feel the need to reply to a specific poster, then just use their name. 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:43 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

five stars for  "Where has he been as the rule of law in this country has been subjugated to worthless by the banking elite?"

Weren't we, all that time, paying those who were supposed to be awake at the wheel (for whom we voted, or who were elected and who appointed others) for "regulating" everything? Can we recover that money? Can we sue for lack of performance. Or do we have to hang them? Just curious.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 22:03 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

That is my major issue as well. One of the benefits of the tax code, technology and army of financial analysts was supposedly to provide the captains of the economy a firm wheel to lightly steer the ship. Remember when greenspan said "Due to innovations in technology and economic models, recessions are things of the past." Compare to one of his more recent gems on CNBC  (para) "If it was not for the European debt problem, and the increasingly worrisome debt problem in the USA -- the premium (upside) to equities is at an all time high"

The steering system on the boat is far too complex (tax code, regulations) but just like good Augustinians, people contorted their lives to mesh into those hundreds of thousands of gears. At the top you got BP writing off the oil spill costs on their taxes, to Turbo Timmy being too important to pay his 1099 taxes when running the world bank, to people levering up their houses to get homeowner tax credits all the way down to the people who work under the table to avoid paying child support.

In September 2008, somebody who thought they were carefully wrapped around one of those steering gears got pinched by another one.(lehman/Bear) And squealed. Anybody who has ever had to work hogs knows what happens next.

Since the current system is worthless for steering the ship, is time to seriously consider a progressive consumption tax. Fark it if anybody else (china) thinks it is protectionistic. Our babyboomer masters should love it because they have already bought most of the things they need and are downsizing. The rest of us can get unwrapped from those clunky old gears.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Boomers came after my gen. I agree with you, the "system" is worthless...but it's far worse than that, I'm afraid. my worry is that'll just make everyone out here want to kill each other more than they already do, and at the same time make those in government (and their puppetmasters) far stronger than they are now. And that's the biggest problem. I think unless we out here repudiate everything relating to the ruling classes (some type of permanent ending to the ruling-class system), this country is 'over'. And probably even if we do repudiate everything, it's over anyway. Sorry. Feeling very, very down; comparing the promise of the nation five decades ago to now is hearbreaking. All thrown away. Damn it makes me sick.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:04 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

All "economists" need to go back to school. I will never invest based on their views.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:28 | Link to Comment VegasBD
VegasBD's picture

What school?

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Pre-

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:48 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

snorted coffee on my desk

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 14:32 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Gold star - never invest based on their views.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:05 | Link to Comment Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture


"Severstal, the Russian steel company, has announced plans for a $5bn (£3.14bn) listing of its gold unit, Nord Gold, on the London Stock Exchange."

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/8264699/Russias-Severstal-plans-5bn-Nord-Gold-London-listing.html

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:07 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Monetary policy credibility is the black swan?  Around here that is a garden variety white swan that can be seen coming for miles.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:10 | Link to Comment JW n FL
Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Hah that reminds me of this scene from Fletch as they are talking about "Ed" and how he went so suddenly...to which the doctor replies "He was dying for years." 

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/52f7a52ff5/fletch-moon-river-from-fletc...

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

LOL. (Doc) "He was in intensive care for 8 weeks". (Fletch) "I mean the very end when he actually died.  That was sudden."

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:10 | Link to Comment janchup
janchup's picture

>Where has he been as the rule of law in this country has been subjugated to worthless by the banking elite?

Wait a minute...someone with tremendous power obviously said (more or less) "DO NOT TOUCH THE BANKSTERS."

The same someone who said: "George Bush must not be held accountable for anything."


Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:15 | Link to Comment SlipStitchPass
SlipStitchPass's picture

 I think the Bankers who have taken over the government made the " Do not touch the bankers" rule.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 14:33 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

So do I.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 14:36 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

I suppose you must think "your" politicians are clean and have our best interest at heart (does any politician have a heart?), while others' politicians don't? Pretty stupid. They all have their puppetmasters and only run for office in order to get their snouts in the public trough in order to do the dirty work of their puppetmasters.

Fight organized crime: vote for no one.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:25 | Link to Comment realitybiter
realitybiter's picture

The fundamental problem is obvious.  Bankers don't create jack.  There is not one technological innovation that was funded by bankers.  ALL technology that really mattered has been financed by equity, providing by risk-taking venture angels and capitalists.  Bankers show up after victory is well in hand and demand a couple points for either the IPO or the arranged marriage.  Both outcomes would have happened with no banker involvement.  Our retarded policy to save the bankers has succeeded in saving this cancerous institution and furthermore, the debt incurred, creating the massive fiscal overhang demotivates capital from taking ANY risk.  Hence, no innovation will occur.

 

If we want innovation we need to destroy banking the way it currently exists.  It retards innovation, which is the only thing which could save us.  

 

Look at the vacuum of IPO's in the last decade.  Social networking is not innovative.  Sure it moves ads from search to "gossiping on steroids", but it does absolutely nothing for productivity or energy.  

 

We have squandered our capital on this horrible institution (banking) and handicapped innovation in the process.  It is absolutely similar to the Pres of Tunisia running away with a ton and a half of gold....the capital is gone.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:23 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

It's all about production.. and banksters don't produce - they skim.

I'll give the friendly local banker a pass, but the central banker is a parasite.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 17:48 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

investment banker... not a banker, a market maker... god's work. Wall Street.

retail banker.... just a regular guy skimming what he can on cd's and interest... Main Street.

and then the governing personalities... the people who want to grow up to be investment banker consultants, ala greespanless.. Government, every fucking where.

 

1 of these is ok.. one has the temperment to just steal a lil... the other two are monsters... selling to the sheepeople that they are just bankers. not so... anyone who wants to clean this up language wise or copy write for me feel free.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Nootropic
Nootropic's picture

I'm pretty sure that the biggest two technological innovations of the past 100 years were primarily funded from the DoD i.e. nuclear power and the integrated circuit.  Hell, TCIP was a DARPA project.

 

Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:34 | Link to Comment the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Yes, the rot must be purged.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 14:39 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

If you have a plan, bring it on and then let's roll.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:42 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

Its simpler than that.

 

Excuse me for reposting, but bubbles do not dissipate without double or actually multiple dips:

Well, Sornette has noticed in one of his publications that after sharp drops, markets ocillate like a damped oscillator, meaning, that during this time, they are almost 100% cooperative. He also has identified herding ( cooperation) as major driving force behind the bubbles. His mathematical model for log periodic oscillations plus further orders of correction ( dicrete scale invariance) that show prominently even in daily , by minute trading, contain damped oscillators and herding, leading to DSI. But this is a very complex paper, impossible to understand details and difficult to understand the model in simple terms. But it works well for times FAR from crash, already in the plato zone (before or after).

Oscillatory Finite-Time Singularities in Finance, Population and Rupture

http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0106047

He has not talked much about decooperation after crashes, but, he has done analysis on the aftermath of the Japanese 1990 bubble, and there You can see that bursting of the bubble involves by definition more than one dip, with intermediary peaks. We are now sitting on top of the first intermediary peak already in the plato zone, meaning DOW is unlikely to  move much below the value of the first dip ( 6500) . This analysis seems very applicable to the decooperation after last global crisis as well as applied to DJIA as the index containing the most accurate world wide information because of its sheer size and information flows- everyone follows DJIA, most people own something related to DJIA or S&P.

This is the work of Sornette I refer to:

"Financial ANTI bubles:Log periodicity in Gold and Nikkei collapses

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/cond-mat/pdf/9901/9901268v1.pdf

 

The time scale is one that is difficult to predict, and there I have used some idea to search for patterns that follow sharp dips in DJIA that include at first immense GLOBAL cooperation and coherence with subsequent GLOBAL decooperation. And , not in so distant past, so that environment is approximately the same. So its like pattern matching having an idea where to look. 

That gives me the lead time to the next dip 2,5-3 years from March 2009 between January -March 2012 ( level 7500) , next one in September-December 2012 ( level 7000), last one in December 2013-march 2014 ( level 7000). After that stocks start to grow, implying some military action since I do not believe there are more bubbles to be blown. But who knows.

This in turn gives ratio of 5:1 to time scales of geopolitical events after current crisis compared to the Great depression, as the first double dip happened 6 months after the crash then. That in turn makes historic predictions much easier, as time scale is there, just to indentify the players.

Similar thinking has been applied to price OIL, which due to the number of USD around , will go out of phase with USA demand by 180 degrees during all of these dips (meaning price of oil will be highest as stocks are at their lowest)  and hence will be seen ( rightly or wrongly ) as the cause of the USA recession. Which requires action.

And , of course, after such 2012, Democrats will lose the president, and Congress will become , slowly, a Tea Party dominated institution. 3 party USA congress. No one would like to miss out the growing popularity of going against the elites of both Rep and Dem responsible for current mess. 

Nevertheless, 2013 will only see partial improvement (DJIA average) 8500 with oil shooting from 150 after elections to >200. Then and there, the only USA option to firm its biggest export, IOU USDs, will be military intervention into oil producing country ( guess which) , but it will not please the Chinese anyway being too close to home and Central Asia.

So, in another  war and conflict like atmosphere, stocks will start to move up, as will economy, but the populist anti elite internal politics of the USA in 2014 will have little  resemblance to today.It will be much less democratic than ever as the survival of the USA will be at stake.

In 1930 ties, it was Germany vs. USSR with the USA watching and China grabbing the opportunity to get communist. After 2014, it will be the USA vs. China with others slowly getting involved in coalitions on both sides. Germany will be watching as it builds a huge economic block (already today there are 130-140 million people directly involved and dependent on German economy in East European states around it) around itself in Europe and militarizes with USA accord ( as will Japan). And there will be no one to back up the USA if something goes wrong. Most likely the USA will team with Russia and Europe and Japan and Canada and even Mexico. China will expand into Central Asia and Southwards. plus get allies whom they will bribe to love their state capitalism ( Venezuela, other Latin Americans, Africa, Belarus?).   Consider Taiwan and South Corea gone within 10 -20 years from now.

And one thing I am sure of- China communists will reduce its exposure to internal capitalist boom very soon. There is an analogy in history- New economic Policies by Soviet Union which started in 1921 as the country economy was destroyed and ended straight after 1929 crisis as Stalin understood that the time for fast militarization has come as potential adversaries against the communist cause ( in that time, to install Soviet model communism in many countries) were dramatically weakened -same as today. And he was immensely succesful- after WWII, Soviet empire and communist controlled teritories had grown HUGELY. NEP run full scale in Soviet Union for about 7 years,before Party split over continuation, and Stalin(hardliners)  won. Chinese has run theirs for 7*5 =35 years, so its time to end this temporary measure (1980-2015) of improving economic conditions and move back to improving ideological things and power of communists, and project it internationally.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Economic_Policy

 

China will NOT cooperate long with the rescue of the West because of its economic interests. That is not important for a communist when international policy gains are within reach. And, by cooperating, China is itself running in trouble ( inflation, income gap) that threatens the power of the Communist party itself. Never trust a communist, period, based on Western values (greed) . Does not work.

Stocks are at their highest any day now. There will be a decline until April , then short prop up in May-June ( may be QE3 or abscence of it but good profits in Q1) .  And then down all the way till 2014, with typical debubbling ondulations as described above (Sornette on Japan 1990 Nikkei collapse).

So I would buy into the USA and any arms industry.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Interesting ivars, what do you make of this?

 

White Paper: The Global Infrastructure Boom of 2009-2015

http://www.joc.com/commentary/white-paper-global-infrastructure-boom-2009-2015

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

Hi,

I guess Obama time is already squandered in the USA in regard of real  infrastructure projects ( e.g. electric grid)-if You do not count health care as infrastructure project- while China is just doing it. May be the USA will be forced to catch up with government directed projects but than it will need more effective government concentration of resourses- less spending on small House /Senate pet projects. Vetoing of such local vote buying projects is what is needed.

On other hand, China will scale back its capitalist and people focus part in favour of military development, so I am not so sure civil infrastructure projects without military benefits will get funding for long. That of course depends on the outcome of the coming power struggle in China CP in 2012-2013. I think China will reduce spending on people needs as it has done many times before, and eliminate most of the middle class/nationalize assets to use the opportunity of using the weakness of the West before the growing middle class and increasing costs of food, oil vs. increasing income inequality strip CP of its power. Its military spending will skyrocket.

So China will intentionally reduce its economic efficiency in favour of projecting new ideology and power of CCP. That in turn will force the USA to consider its infrastructure and its potential war time usefulness. Surely, power outages does not contribute to military safety.  But to perform such a feat, a new form of less democracy will be needed, otherwise there is no way government can direct huge infrastructure projects in DIRE economic circumstances, as author mentions-the USA does not have money to do it- so the money that is has to be heavily prioritized. And for that, one needs different form of elite, the one more united and focused on these issues, and moving faster than normal democratic process would allow.Basically , one party system-President, House, Senate- same majority, most likely Tea Party/Republican coalition led by the Tea Party. As economy collapses, people radicalize. The left radicals (Obama) had their chance- but very poor timing-straight into double dip- so that only leaves their opponents on the far right.

The USA can not afford for China to get any clear superiority in infrastructure things that matter militarily.

And I agree, Canada will be the Austria (1938) of the new USA. Integrated, perhaps even politically, but not really harshly. In exchange for protection of its Arctic resources.But that will be  a  slow process, of tens of years before actual merger.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:29 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

The bankers and the elite own this fucking place. In the end, they cannot control the unintended consequences of their actions. They are like the little dutch boy, running from leak to leak- sticking their fingers in the dike and plugging holes. One day the whole fucking wall is going to collapse and crush their little noggins. That day is arriving soon. I welcome it. Then we can finally get onto something useful. Like reclaiming our country from the bastards who hijacked it.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:58 | Link to Comment LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

+5.56x45
Be right there with you, cousin.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:28 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

that what my mom shoots you wuss.

here... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_FLFXMQhsk

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:12 | Link to Comment lumen ex lumine
lumen ex lumine's picture

JW : "that what my mom shoots you wuss."

 

This is an english-speaking site. Please post accordingly.

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Trouble is that they'll float like shit and we'll all be crushed. 

Action, before they get away with what they've done.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:35 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture
And so, over-extended and over-expended, the eulogies for American power in all it's forms begin.
Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:35 | Link to Comment anonnn
anonnn's picture

"Economics", as taught in America, is only half-truths, and thus a lie, bec it deliberately omits a vital datum...

Namely, there must be a working justice system to monitor and regulate unfair dealing [e.g. fraud, lies, lack of transparency, etc]. This is not taught. It is deliberately ignored.It is not complicated.

 "Economics" without a working justice system is criminal fraud. That explains how crims rise to the top of all control points.

A suggestion: Prosecute injustice starting at the top levels, at the control-points. It is myth that starting at lower levels is effective...It cleverly distracts and wastes time and resources...That myth is really an early warning system for the crims to escape.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:36 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

+100

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 14:48 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

...and your plan to get this all started is..... ?

Let's see it, please.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 14:37 | Link to Comment alter ego
alter ego's picture

Don't worry, a Super Solar Flare before 2012 is what is going to put us all into the Dark Ages.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7819201/Nasa-warns-solar-flares-from-huge-space-storm-will-cause-devastation.html

 

Ahh, by the way, please don't forget about Peak Oil, I think that will make the rest.

 

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,715138,00.html

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 18:48 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

There are two modes (heating and sparking) of failure that can lead to these problems.  Neither will effect pistol or riffle ammunition.  Unless you are arming up much better than most of us, you don't have to worry about this.

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 15:52 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

 Our solar system crossing the galactic plane , currently in progress, will have no bearing  on us. All will be fine. Move along now.

be sure to swim in the gulf, have some fish. Birds always fall from the sky and house prices will always rise. 

We are in worse trouble than we care to admit . In a case like this you have to ask yourself, whats really real and whats worth doing?

I suggest true reality is being alive, this moment  and the most worthy goal is to raise ones conciousness . Being a human who has a spirit , or being the spirit managing the human. I prefer the latter option because those who claim to have soul have only a conceptual idea of what soul might be, never having Knowingly experienced it.

Logic and common sense drove me to answer that question some years ago.

But experience gave me my final answers.  We dont need the human body to exist, but we need it to experience, grow in concious knowledge and awareness of ourselves.

Self knowledge, recognizing  the inner world is more critical going forward . Once the body is dead its a bit to late to make best use of the time allowed here.

Money aint everything, fact its nothing at all. Love is the real creative power.So hug somebody and realize you are hugging god. Make yourself happy and then share that good mood.  Think large thoughts and use thoughts to lift yourself.

Share that good mood and bring it , especially those who return that love.

 

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 21:47 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I would only add:  Alleviate some suffering!

 

Mon, 01/17/2011 - 23:56 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Shoot a banker...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 14:49 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Seems like your #1 might be, at the least, death to all on earth. Guess that would fix everything. No worries about p/o then.

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