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Niall Ferguson On Whether The Financial Crisis Will Lead To America's Decline And A Glimpse Of The "Post-Pax Americana" Dark Ages
Two weeks after we presented Niall Ferguson's video lecture - "Empires On The Verge Of Chaos" to tremendous reader response and almost 30,000 views, we follow up with another must watch video presentation, this time highlighting the intellectual rigor of Ferguson, David Gergen and Mort Zuckerman. The topic once again is the Financial Crisis, and specifically how, why and whether it will lead to America's decline. Of particular note is Ferguson's spot on characterization of the primary deficiency in the so-called brains of economists, namely that they see patterns, equilibria and stable systems where there are absolutely none: i.e., in the complex (as in Lorenzian) world of economics: "Complex systems look like they are in equilibrium, but they are not: they are constantly adapting, highly decentralized, interdependent systems and this process of adaptation can continue for quite a long time. And you think to yourself when you look at it, that's in a wonderful equilibrium. That's how we think about the economy. That is how economists teach economics. They talk about it in terms of equilibrium. The bad news is that in fact we inhabit a complex system that has virtually nothing to do with the neoclassical model that you are taught in Econ 101. And that's why the economists failed to predict the financial crisis... For me American power if you generalize beyond the realm of finance through the geopolitical system is a perfect example of a highly complex system which looks like it is in equilibrium but like all the great empires of the past is quite close to the edge of chaos. And our nightmare scenario should be that something happens to us like happened to the Soviet Union... It suddenly just falls apart. And I think the trigger, the catalyst if you want to switch to chaos theory the butterfly in the tropical rainforest that flaps its wings and posits the distant thunderstorm is going to be the credibility of fiscal policy. That just seems to me like the obvious place where things can turn nasty, and they turn nasty with amazing speed."
And another highlight clip: Will the post-American world be the new Dark Ages?
Must watch hour long video for a slow holiday.
Full program by segments:
01. Introduction 05 min 08 sec
02. Financial Crisis Accelerated West to East Power Shift 07 min 50 sec
03. American Business Culture Is Healthy 06 min 44 sec
04. Threat of Rapid Decline 03 min 53 sec
05. Complexity Theory and National Strength 02 min 30 sec
06. Debt and Stimulus 03 min 22 sec
07. Innovation Only Helps by Creating Domestic Jobs 02 min 59 sec
08. Growing Education Gap 02 min 38 sec
09. A World Without a U.S. Superpower 04 min 55 sec
10. Q1: U.S. Headed Toward Capitalism or Socialism? 02 min 48 sec
11. Q2: What Happened to Budget Surplus 02 min 00 sec
12. Q3: Coping with China Graduating Thousands of Engineers 02 min 37 sec
13. Q4: How to Manage the Deficit 05 min 05 sec
14. Q5: Low Birth Rate in China 02 min 52 sec
15. Q6: Federal Reserve and Treasury Contribution to Crisis 03 min 26 sec
»
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"things can go bad with amazing speed."
Oooh, stop teasing me!
Haven't we been living the nightmare since 2008?
DON'T WORRY GUYS!!!
ALL YOU MILLIONAIRES AND BILLIONAIRES WHO ARE ON THIS SITE WILL MAKE A KILLING BUYING ALL THE REST OF AMERICA'S ASSEST FOR A PENNY ON THE DOLLAR!!!
If your not a millionaire/billionaire.... well... your fucked. Ain't going to lie to you. Your really really fucked.
JUST LIKE US EUROPEAN'S!!
surely you meant to say.."JUST LIKE US PEONS!!
Mmmmm, I think we are that anyway, no matter how much cash we have.
Meaning, I don't think the worst has happened yet.
So an establishment academic historian, a NY fat cat, and a long time Republican hack walk into a bar...
Which one is wearing the vest strapped with explosives?
me!
And the three sit down at the bar next to a liberal Huffingtonpost style finance blogger. The NYT reading liberal, quoting the latest nobel prize winning Krugman article says:
When the establishment historian objects, the liberal economics blogger accusses him of being a far right and quotes the latest lefty hero, Clarence Dupnik:
pax americana is a misnomer just as that sick term "liquidation" was used by nazis and their defenders to describe the wholesale murder of jews and christians....
murder and torture is official american policy in middle east....a paranoia so perverse that it would make nixon blush is the cornerstone of usa policy....1500-2000 bases world wide - for what??
and since it is mlk day, i don't mind reiterating the facts revealed in the 1999 mlk civil trial which demonstrated that the fbi, cia, us army, us army delta force, and the memphis police department collaborated in the murder of dr king.....see james douglas for details....
pax americana my ass.
Sorry man, but pretty sure Delta wasn't formed until a bit later.
Your conspiracy bucket has a leak, who put the hole there might be a good thing to research.
he meant 101st mountain... or recondo?
He is a smart guy and like a few Brits sees the US making many of the same missteps they did, he seems not to notice peak oil, but his point about the world being a complex system balanced on a thread is right on the money.
His comment on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan being "quasi-imperialist" betray that he takes "peak oil" theories into his thought process. The hypothesis being that Iraq was a geostrategic play for Iraqi oil and buttressing influence of the oil producing Middle East and Afghanistan is a battle for "Pipelanistan".
"hypothesis being...." you're joking, right? I mean you don't really think that surmise is a mere hypothesis, do you? Bush & Cheney being liars (the former somewhat reluctantly, I concede), they claimed it was counter-terrorism. Cheney's the most meglomaniacal asshole I've ever seen, and a slimy, devious little bitch, to boot. What a fiasco. I'd say "like Vietnam" except there is one diff: we may actually net some crude out of the deal - maybe. At the cost of $__?___/bbl. Let alone killing & maiming all the troops.
Feel myself ready to rant on spin-offs of the War on Terror, such as the $billions all the cronies make "consulting" blah blah blah, but would take too long. Suffice to say, if one can't see the total bullshit of the whole well-crafted, diabolical scenario unfolding since 911, well I don't know what to say..... hell, maybe I over-reacted.
"...well-crafted, diabolical scenario unfolding since 911...."
...well-crafted, diabolical scenario *of* 911.
yeah, I very nearly put "since August 2001"
"hell, maybe I over-reacted".
If what you said is over-reaction then it is a damn shame more of the dancing-with-stars-drugged public also does not over-react. Ask the masses their opinion on the US war on terror and most will recite just what they have been taught to recite : "we need to stay safe at home". "better to fight our wars on foreign soil". "we support our troops". Push the replay button and you'll hear the same recital in different dialects, different tones and the exact same pitch.
I doubt you're overreacting. In my lifetime (6 decades plus some), we're now on the elimination of a large number of the third generation, and strategic events could stretch to a fourth generation soon.
It's gotta stop!!
It's difficult to Academia to take notice of Peak Oil.
Peak Oil is just all over the place in the modern economic paradigm, however it's just to simple and no complex enough for scholars to accept because somehow turns down their myriad theories.
In conclusion: for a guy like Fergusson to accept Peak Oil is to put him out of job.
Maybe his job (as for the others) is to provide material to cover for peak oil. His job is cover tracks, to buy time, to build up a fiction.
Trouble is that when peak oil is admitted, you have to answer to simple questions.
Never forget that the justification to oil consumption is that it will help to move to another more efficient paradigm. A paradigm that is not showing.
It would paint many relations a new colour.
Denial can be awesome tactics.
Black swans only fly in when they're attracted by something already there. meaning, there is rarely one single catastrophic event. It's a series. In retrospect, historians and humans in general like to trace it all to one event that they can blame or believe that they can learn from. It never is.
My version of what Niall Ferguson states about "highly complex system which looks like it is in equilibrium but like all the great empires of the past is quite close to the edge of chaos" is this: the US like all empires has built a dam to hold back all kinds of forces of entropy. Whether by law, accord, or force of arms certain types of competition are held back and allow the US to thrive.
Over the decades cracks have appeared in the dam. It's nobody's fault, just the way the world is. We've come up with solutions to patch the cracks and stanch the leaks. But as we've been busy doing this, the water pressure has been building up. We've adapted in some ways, but unfortunately we've tried to keep the past alive in others. Those are the weaknesses. When a dam bursts it usually fails in stages.
My version is that we became corrupt, lazy and stupid, thereby adding too much complexity to the system and finally loosing control of it...
Yep. That's part of the curse of privilege. But think about this: are we stupider now than we were before America's rise to supremacy in the early 20th century? I doubt that. There was plenty of stupidity, corruption and laziness to go around at all times in the past. The key problem is that for all that we were hungry to adapt and change in our earlier history, we are now on the opposite end of the spectrum: resisting change and new ideas, trying hard not to adapt to new realities, focused on how can we turn back the clock, embracing yesterday's success formulas
You're right.Survival was at stake too, and that has been artificially removed, soon to be back though... Always enjoy your posts Caviar...
Likewise :)
and.... and! us v. them... hulky, dont lie... ok, I wont lie... I loved being young and smart and all powerful.. great, now I am old pissed off and dont know anything... but thru it all, i knew more than them... and my ego was fine with that... we were smart they were dumb and thats it...
well we now reap what I felt ok with not so long ago...
someone here wrote not to, too long ago... "that until there is no us v. them" until we all become them... i took away from that misquote that we should have educated everyone, we should have let the creme rise to the top... instead of squandering our resources for short term earnings reports so as to make the bonus bonanza!
us v. them... in the end them being stupid will be our undoing. we were not as smart as we thought we where.
Interesting to note that our brains appear to be wired for cooperation and therefore the us vs them thing is doomed to fail...
with all of my free time.. i have put some thought into teaching these sheeepeople.. other than to just consume on command.. and I dont see how to lift it?
Our infrastructure (literally and figuratively, politically, socially, and physically) has been degrading for decades. Not fully collapsed yet, but things are getting steadily worse, not steadily better, and more people are in denial than aren't.
I almost hesitate to enter this angry discussion however:
1) The US is in a weak position due to the fiscal stupidity of spending more than we make. This is true both at the personal and governmental levels (some exceptions but by and large that's what we have done).
2) The US will face serious challenges going forward. We will occasionally be competing (economically and geo-politically) on a much more equal level than in anytime in my lifetime (post WWII).
3) Our competitors also have significant weaknesses, just as the other challengers the US has faced in the recent past also had. I remember when the USSR was going to bury us (not just their propaganda but our elites' propaganda as well) and the Japanese were going to rule us (watch Blade Runner for an example of how that bled over into a film, that was done because it would seem plausible to the audience). Now it is the Chinese. Certainly, China has had an amazing run. It may continue, it may not. However, the challenges facing China (albeit they are different) are similarly large.
4) The US has two great strengths (although both are under attack, they can be revived).
a) Our Constitution is the probably the best structure to encourage economic freedom, prosperity and political and economic innovation ever devised. The greatest threat to America's future is the current attacks on and evasion of the Constitution.
b) The America people, for all their faults--they are human after all, have one huge strength. A large number of Americans still believe in the Constitution and want it to guide our nation's path.
The US will be weaker going forward compared to the past. That may not be all a bad thing. The US could fail, even collapse, if we do not reestablish our society on the basis of individual liberty and responsibility. Certainly, it appears that we are moving very rapidly to destroy our Constitution-based government, continuing on the path of the last 80 years.
This is not a Democrat vs. Republican argument. The Republicans are taking us to Hell on a bus, the Democrats on a jet. The leadership of both parties, indeed the entire elite of our nation must be rejected and replaced with people who will implement the Constitution and allow Americans to succeed or fail on their own efforts and return the government to its proper place (small, limited, and weak within our borders, strong but cautious outside our borders).
I do not fear China. I fear that Americans will choose the easy way and destroy the best system of government the world has ever seen. In the last several generations we have moved a long way toward this destruction. Can we turn back? Only we can decide. The US needs both leaders committed to revitalizing our nation and people willing to do the hard work and make the sacrifices necessary to accomplish the revitalization.
Here's hoping!
Can we turn back? Only we can decide
You can never 'turn back' except in your head. That theme is a symptom of what's wrong and is the curse of privilege. But it's human nature to want to try and do what's actually hopeless, because it's easier than embracing change and new ideas, or needing to make decisions. However there's no reward for that.
Certainly, we cannot go back to 18th century America. In many ways, I would not want to. However, that does not mean we cannot, and should not, return to a more limited federal govt, a balanced fiscal policy (spending=income over medium term), more individual freedom, more economic freedom, more individual responsibility, etc. In other words, return to the ideals that this country was based on (however imperfect the implementation). We will never implement them perfectly either, but we can do much, much better than we currently are.
If you mean that we must go forward toward some brave, new future that rejects the worn out thinking of the past, I disagree. Those words are normally followed by disasters on a biblical scale (think Communist Russia, China, Cambodia, National Socialism--similar precepts as communism except at the edges).
There are a limited number of possible political systems. All have been tried on some scale, at some time in history. The best is the system of limited government and maximum individual freedom that the Constitution embodied.
Please note: The Constitution did not come into being in a vacuum. It was not a uniquely American invention. It was based on ideas drawn from a variety of thinkers of many cultures and many times. I do not mean this to be an US VS. everyone tirade.
Forever and always powerful governments steal the liberties and wealth of their subjects. This is the very nature of what a government is. However, governments are necessary. The trick is to get most of the benefits of a government with the minimal injuries that they inevitably bring. The Constitution of the US did this better than any other government ever constituted.
To paraphrase Churchill, "The US Constitution is not the best possible basis for government, it is just the best one ever created." Until I see better, I think our best hope is to try to reestablish the constitutional republic envisioned by the Founders of the US. We can, and should do better in some areas, especially in not compromising and excluding some people from the rights they envisioned. However, recognizing their failures and striving to avoid them, we can do no better and much worse than to try to re-establish a government of the people, for the people and by the people.
Peak everything will lead us back to the sustainable, whatever that is. A much smaller, more efficient government, most definitely.
I wasn't advocating changing what works, rather to focus on what doesn't. Our political system? Best system we could hope for in theory and practice but like a beautiful sports car, needs constant attention, tuning, tweaking and sometimes major improvements. Oil changes and new tires help when everything is fine but Yes, you need to replace one or more major parts over time, and eventually even the whole guts when they no longer perform.
What has explained our success has never really been 'conservatism' but sensible adaptation to whatever challenges were placed in front of us. I think lots of people today are confusing 'Moderation' for 'conservatism'. Yes, our system is designed to resist extreme change (unless the challenge is extreme). That's good. But change it must in order to keep on thriving. Or risk everything just for the sake of pride.
It's very tempting to get nostalgic for the 'golden age'. I've felt that way myself and I admit it. But looking in the rear view mirror is no way to drive. I think the 'laziness and corruption' that we all perceive is from those elements that stubbornly refuse to let things change. Because, of course, it's to their economic advantage. But that's often to the detriment of the whole. We're always balancing those two competing needs: individualism versus the whole. Thank God, the US values the worth and rights of a single individual. But there have been times when sacrifice is called for, like during war time. That's very obvious. But what about economic sacrifice when the ship is sinking? That's harder because of the way politics and money intertwine. Powerful individuals want to escape in a spiffy little life boat. But this issue was dealt with many times in the past with great outcomes. I believe that the New Deal was one example that reinvigorated the country. We'll lose if we cling to the idea of eternal sunshine and no consequences for being irresponsible.
+1 Invisible Hand. Nice to see some reasonable discussion in this thread, amongst the curse-laden tripe.
Hulk:
Peak everything will lead us back to the sustainable, whatever that is. A much smaller, more efficient government, most definitely.
The problem is that "peak xxxx" is not the same for governments as it is for resources. When you hit peak resources (oil, gold, whatever) it's a smooth and slow transition to sustainability - you don't all of the sudden just run out and have a drastic reduction.
"Peak government" though tends to be violent and very disruptive - usually in the form of physical revolutions. Witness Tunisia now. Fortunately most "peak government" changes (where government power peaked and the people revolted) have been less bloody the past 50 years or so - e.g. the fall of the U.S.S.R. etc., vs the early 1900's when tens of millions of people died when governments changed hands. But I think we're losing that good fortune of the late 20th century. When/if we reach "peak government" in the U.S., nothing short of complete, and probably bloody, revolution will end up reducing its size in any significant fashion.
Unfortunately - most likely anyhow. One can hope that it'll happen peacefully; however any peaceful change will only be incremental, not wholesale.
The constitution isn't some religious talisman. It's a legal document, and it's flawed in a number of ways.
It did, however, provide for an amendment process. And we need to amend it.
http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/01/15/amending-the-constitution-t...
http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/01/15/us-constitution-28th-amendm...
http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/01/15/28th-amendment-first-and-se...
http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/01/16/28th-amendment-section-3/
http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/01/17/28th-amendment-the-rest-exp...
I doubt revitalization or restoration is possible. Too few are old enough to remember the past you're remembering, a huge generation caught 1960s-itis and hate the country or are among the looters or both, and the rest have their hands out, many don't want to work, many can't find sustaining jobs, and there's no white knight who'll fix it. Voting never has been the answer but simply has camouflaged the decline as it has been happening -- bread and circuses. The innards were eaten away while we watched and those who warned us were silenced. So now we're approaching the tipping point and it's probably too late, with too few who care left to fix it, and many who not only don't care but hope for the downfall of the US clapping their hands. Many elsewhere will profit from the decline of the USA.
The thing is this. When America goes... we still make a buttload of food! And if we have no oil? Well we'll have 300+ million unemployed people to til the fields. I guess all that's left is figuring out a way to make bullets by hand so we can keep the foreigners' out of our corn cribs!
Oh! They will work in the fields? I don't think so, more like they will steal your tomatoes.
I don't think there are so many willing tillers in our population. Many who would be chiefs (though probably unqualified) and too few who would be minions.
After leaving his wife of 16 years and 3 kids for a Somali woman, Niall Ferguson has gone completely cuckoo:
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/02/and_you_thought_dating_was_har.html
Wow. Muslim tramp stamps. Who knew.
Tramp stamp? I prefer the term "slag tag".
Hmm, multiple uses for this link today:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAdtUDaBfRA&feature=related
How are you going to feed 300 million people?
How are you going to make tons of food?
How are you going to plant and harvest corn, wheet, etc?
Here is some facts:
1) Fertilizer: 99% of them come from Ammonia (the feedstock for Ammonia is Natural Gas).
2) Tractors are oil powered machines.
3) Water (Pump): How are you going to generate electricity?
And the list can go on and on.
Why, we have afforable and renewable energy sources going up in the form of wind farms all over these parts! /sarc off.
You can till, plant, water, weed and harvest by hand. Everyone gets to Vegetable Garden. You either work the top of the field, like eveyone else, or you push up the plants from beneath. Think Miles Standish with an AR15, suffering bad caffeine and internet porn habits that are not being fulfilled any longer.
the bottom line is we're not going to have 300 million people to feed. that one part Darwin got right, about survival of the fittest, is going to catch up beyond the artificial dampening that's been taking place these past 60 or 70 years. A lot of lazy and idiotic people are going to be gone. Some Jenners, Saulks, Archimedes and Oppenheimers will be lost with them, more's the pity.
And about wind power, in honesty, there were still many cattle operations around my section of flyover country that used windmills to manually pump water to livestock as late as the early 80's.
Get your ass to an Amish settlement and start taking notes on how shit gets done.
if they would put wind power where the fucking wind blows? no... noooo.... put it in the middle of nowhere, its to loud... wheres the airport... downtown, lol!
the money does not follow a logical path any more, striictly political. thusly we all will suffer becuase of it.
There's more to it then that. What happens when the people start invading farmland and raiding/ destroying crops? Do you really think the farmers will bother to plant the following season?
Think "Amish Marines" KickIce. Ever see an Amish up close? They are big and strong...
I am not lil.. of course I am not as young as I once was either... but most, and I mean 9 out of ten times... an amish woman could take one of us.. God Bless them All!
yeah, but some punk, with no agriculture knowledge, will shoot the Amish farmer and then there will be no planting the following year. Same that is happening in South Africa.
tell it to the amish.
Actually, there are quite a few Amish and Mennonites where I live, and I've spoken to 3 of them about my concerns regarding a collapse. None of them were aware of the economic situation or the effects of high altitude EMP. I told them that I envy their effective preparation and they should consider the implications of being among the last men standing, so to speak. Two of the three told me that we should not be concerned about material matters and put our trust in God. One of them told me they know they are going to have to feed everyone. Not being a 'leave it (entirely) to God' type person, I am discouraged that they have not thought through their situation clearly. I fear they have become weak, bathed in a supporting civilization. Their wells and refrigerators (yes) run on gas, not wind or hand. I found this out when I tried to find a well company to install my deep water hand pump. They will have more than their share of problems if and when the SHTF.
1) Since it is easier to deal with than human and animal waste, yeah. When ammonia becomes scarce, we then go back to the tried and true cow shit, and put in a fertilizer extraction loop in our water sanatation plants.
2)Electric tractors exist, and it is possible to convert a petrol tractor to one with an electric motor. You just can't range too far away from a power source.
3) Plenty of ways, nuclear (ideally Gen IV reactors), wind, solar in decreasing order.
The future is shit.
Literally. We are going to begin managing our shit better. Both animal and human. It will become the necessary replacement for fossil fuel based inputs.
Poo is a huge resource, and we literally flush it down the shitter.
You've got to wonder about a society that spends billions on treating water and then turns around and takes a shit in it.
Asians have used it wisely and well, haven't they? "Night soil"? Or whatever.
Hmmm, the probably scarcity of willing tillers is looking seriouser and seriouser.
Same Niall Ferguson who smoodged over the Rothschild's biography in one of the most long and boring reads you will ever encounter? Same NF who is currently smoodging over, none other than, the soon to be late-great Henry Kissinger's biography? Kissinger reportedly "provided Ferguson with access to his White House diaries, letters, and archives".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niall_Ferguson
Lovely. Don't those documents already belong to the American people?!?! It'll be nteresting to see how many pages Niall can eke out of, most likely, thousands of pages of government archives. Not that interesting. I would rather read the compressed archived version.
We're going to find out how much of a strength "diversity" is real soon.
China has no blacks or jews. Advantage: China
And not all that many Moslems? But many other ethnic minorities.
Though it's true (China dissed black US students a few decades ago), probably you are naughty to mention it.
He references the collapse of the Soviet Union. Here is a link to a quick read on the actual causes of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Sorry to you right wingers it was not that Ronald Reagan speech about "tear down these walls". Much like us, they had serious problems with their economy long before that. It is alarming how similar our situation is to theirs. http://www.historyorb.com/russia/intro.shtml
No one's alarmed but you and me, I think.
C'mon bitches. What needs to be done? What can the average shmoe on the street do to make a difference? Calling all hotties from Colombia... How can we use this forum (internet) to pull all people's interests before the globalists makes us their bitches? Think! :-)
Finally; an easier capthcha
Simple, Click on the booty, read a portion of the constitution and watch a free porn snippet. An entire generation of baby food eating, drama sniffing porn addicts can be transformed into constitutional scholars overnight. There's an app for that.
Plus we can out-blog the bastards.
I've been begging for a plan for several years, never have seen one and no whispers seem to be in the wind. Hope you'll have better luck stirring up all those out there who are constantly admonishing others to "do something". The problem is that without a workable plan, I say again workable, it's better to do nothing.
I'm surprised I didn't hear one peep about about our monetary system and the role the Federal Reserve plays in debt creation (otherwise known as wealth creation to the cartel). They are correct when they identified the factors that lead to our enormous debt and deficits, but failed to mention these were engineered by the financial elite in order to turn the country into a debt slave. The government is now captured by the financial elite and is held hostage. We'll never have any meaningful legislation come out of DC after the Citizens United ruling legalized anonymous bribery.
So I assume that if he is favour of a more decentralised redundant financial ecosystem he is favour of silver being reintegrated back into the monetory system....................................
Somehow I don't think so
This guy loves the smell of his own shit.
What does it mean to grow yourself out of this shithole ? - does he want to increase consumption again , what fucking tripe.
Not one mention of increasing real capital - which is poison for his banking paymasters
"First of all, I want to say, growing up in a declining empire, it is not a good route to chose."
Obviously, his listeners must have some choice in the matter? Figures....Aspen, Rothschilds, Kissinger...whatever. I'll choose decline. Go to hell, Niall. And take your banking paymasters with you.
yeah the aspen institute, think tank group. what a joke. those bastards are all second home owners. jeeze, i just found out today that Pelosi shit owns a winter home in aspen. what the fuck is a winter home. she lives on this new road star mesa, big cut across the mountain to get their ass wipe SUV up this steep ass hill, i could barely ride my bicycle up. it is right across from john paulson third home.
That bitch! I bet she's a snow plowin', yard salein', cat trackin', noodler that scratches her skis with her nail file after hours to look more 'local'. I hope her road careems down the slope never to be used again.
My urban ski dictionary probably expired back in the 80's.
Chin up. If the right time ever comes, they'll be easy to find.
He is a cog...
thank you for posting. David gergen did great moderating, good questions and follow up....
a man in the federal reserve places some notional money in a bank computer, and a hurricane of Chinese people go to work in factories to make the goods the rest of the world wants. America stands to gain the most and it only needs to stop flapping its wings for a bit, to let a lot of air out of everything else. Hurricanes always think they will last forever.
Fiscal debt is not the problem baby (how could the money supply be a debt problem) - its the vast unproductive shadow banking sector that is sucking the life blood from its victim.
The fiscal debt is the mechanism used to keep the victim alive for longer so that its parasites can keep feeding.
Band-aids on a vampire bite.
...and drawing off deposits from the unsuspecting and stupid.
Really, for God's sake, something's got to be done! But what?
While gran brittania has declined from its zenith around 1910 I daresay the average brit's quality of life is still materially better in the 21st century. We can decline and still do fairly well in the long run.
Until the financial parasites are restrained from draining the essential life fluids of the economy, there will not be the purity of essence needed to restart, or even to establish an alternative sustainable system.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3BjS4JUgCE
Hey Gergen, your Bilderberg pals are calling for you at Bohemian Grove. They want to know how you take your sausage.
Alex Jones asking Gergen about BG was some of the most entertaining journalism ever. Gergen defending public officials meeting in private as "none of your business" trumps all. You are a public official. Nothing is private. That BG stuff is unbelievable, but unfortunately true. WTF?
guillotine?
Here's what I don't get - his logic is flawed at best - he wants entrepreneurs to go out and create jobs, just like that - as Tommy Copper might say.
He talks about ecosystems and the animal world in a blaze fashion to justify his complexity meanderings but anybody who studies ecosystems in the real world realizes that the volume of biomass is dependent on the energy and water in the system.
So without a fiscal spend the energy in the system will be limited so therefore entrepreneurs will be entering a water restricted desert of systems and energy.
Now he extols the Chinese model which is dependent on huge capital flows outwards from the west.
This guy is just playing one hemisphere against another just like in the cold war where there was huge technology transfer to the Soviet Union via Israeli agents in the western realm and therefore prolonging the cold conflict.
He hopes this clash of ideas and possibly metal will generate new income for his overlords - the cynicism about the human condition that these lizards project is truely amazing
Argentina used to be stable and powerful. Now it is a shithole. Brasil used to be stable and powerful. Now it is a shithole. The Usa had 40 years of stability and power. In the future it will be a shithole. So what? Just another new-world shithole. Life goes on.
Thanks for the hearty, long extended laugh.
Sh*thole-nomics. That may be key to the future.
In the future?! I'd say the future has arrived, kiddo.
Gold is collapsing! YIKES...
Wish I hadn't bought a 2010 gold American Indian at the top 1500 :(
Don't worry. By this Fall gold will be back up again.
One thing: 2010 U.S. gold coins with the Indian head on them are named "Buffalo" - check for the buffalo on the coin's back.
~Misstrial
Please not to be feeding of this gloomy troll.
Ok.... to review:
Ferguson believes we should let old people starve while we continue to maintain the defense budget because a world without U.S. hegemony would be "really really scary."
And Mort believes that America is still the breeding ground of innovation BUT we need foreign students to provide us stupid Americans with the ideas and brainpower to make it happen.
Oh Fergie, from high up on your perch in Cambridge, I am all for winding the welfare state but cuts in defense have got to be simultaneous. And isn't the real question Mort, why can't we seem to produce engineers, or is it that those pesky American engineers require too much in salary or we have been so dumbed down to allow the welfare/warfare state to perpetuate that we can't tell which way is up anymore.
This was a sorry excuse for an intelligent discussion. Isn't it obvious that Amerika is becoming a police state and that this decline has been engineered and coordinated for some time by our masters.
Americans... you have enemies... and they are right there in the above video.
+10!
This market is coming under unsustainable pressure. Money moving back into precious metals may signal a decline just around the corner. We may see one last dip to the top heading into the end of May. Munis have already collapsed Europe fears just went away overnight, perhaps the newspaper editors were on their skiing holidays, theyll be back soon.
http://pressurepointpivots.blogspot.com/
The Soviet Union comparison is apt.
We need a constitutional amendment to address the issues. Here it is:
http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com
Read the last 5 posts or so. More if you like, of course. It's free.
We have a thing called a printing press which will solve all our problems.
The U.S. of A fall is due to the effort of the people within the U.S.
without strong America, the world will become a new dark age? LOL. talk about Humogous ego. I for one think the world WITHOUT a strong U.S.A. will be a better one! The recorded human history is more than 3K years long. And it was a better one without imperialist countries!
There have always been imperialist countries. And the US isn't the only immperialist... not the first and won't be the last. Believe it.
He is basically comparing Rome to the US. When Rome collapsed Europe went into the 'dark ages'.
He is probably right. US goes, it will send China into a depression with inflation, EU = finished. Be like a credit crunch X1000. I prefer the term 'ice age'
Economic 'ice age' with wars.
After Rome's boot was removed from Europes neck, the Europeans welcomed the Dark Ages, they wanted nothing to do with "civilization", "education", "religion", "art", or "war", and were proud of it.
The boot never left the neck, it just changed its "cloth".
The Dark Ages, fondly remembered as the "Golden Ages", happened while they were changing "cloth".
And there was never any crime, oppression, slavery, famine, pestilence, plague, war, rape, tempests, earthquakes, volcanoes, bigotry, rape, forest fires, floods, tsunamis, ignorance, illiteracy ... sure I must have forgotten a couple. Sigh.
Touche!
He is carefully crafting a message he can sell to those with the money and power now. Good strategy. Let's get rid of the government and keep the same leadership. So much neater and cleaner.
Meet the new boss same as the old. What is wrong with that or could possibly go wrong.
I'm so sick of people saying America is headed for a European style socialism I could vomit. The European social systems are eons ahead of the US and we can't even afford what we have in place. This crap that we reward laziness and tax industriousness are just evil boogie man theories.
Just Social Security in and off itself is not enough for anyone to survive on and we've got a lot of people coming into retirement that have had their pensions, 401ks and other savings decimated by the banks and their shinanigans. So while it might be fun to suggest that innovation is overtaxed and businesses are overtaxed our citizens are not paying anywhere near the taxes they were paying when we had less people and less fiscal ills.
The top of the ladder are paying a mere 15% on their ill-gotten gains while the middle class is paying 28+% for hard sweaty labor. From this perspective one could say we have taxed the idle less than the working poor but it's certainly not distributed in any sense as a socialist would determine the money should be handed out. We're continually told that those that are taxed at the 15% rate are the job creators when in fact it has been the pensions and 401 that are by far the largest investments in the financial markets.
China is like the franken chikens in the documentary "Food Inc".
In that movie you can see that the chickens are feed with corn, bio products and hormones in order to make them growth as fast and soon as possible with the detrimental that when they grow up, they can't stand on their feet.
China is like the chicken, they are trying to grow so fast and soon that their institutions and economy can't digest it.
There is a time for everything and they are racing against time in order to be at the pair of US.
They can't.
US is in deep trouble but the rest of the world is in a worst position.
Again, the world economic paradigm has been tight to cheep and abundant energy resources.
We don't live in that world anymore.
Triple digit oil prices will remind us that badly.
I don't think it's yet clear who's in worse shape. You've got short-timelineitis.
I wouldn't bet on the US, with its short timelines, besting Asians with their long ones. I've been thiking that eventually Asians will be everywhere, and everyone else will be... subsumed.
In short the US is facing tough problems. I believe if we have a debt collapse we will have an apolar world. China is not as strong as many put her to be. China still has a government controled economy that will not pay in the end.China will either have to except capitalism or the failed quasi capitalist/socialist economy it has now .China has ghost malls and out of control inflation that is going to bite them in the butt. The EU is a failed and flawed system and will break very soon. Russia has a terrible birth/death. India still has internal problems(Maoist rebellions spreading).Brazil will just be a regional power in South America.The good news is we have time to do significant cuts in defense,entitlements,and waste. However that window of oppurtunity is slowly closing. The thing is we will spend more in debt interest then defense expenditures(just in case you do not know,defense is the largest in the budget) in the early 2020s. The Congressional Budget Office projects that within ten years, federal debt could reach 90 percent of GDP, and even this estimate is probably too optimistic given the low rates of economic growth that the United States is experiencing and likely to see for years to come. The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff paper comes closer to the mark by projecting that federal debt could equal total GDP as soon as 2015. These levels approximate the relative indebtedness of Greece and Italy today. Leaving aside the period during and immediately after World War II, the United States has not been so indebted since recordkeeping began, in 1792. So we will need to fix these problems NOW! The problem is that the neocons and neolibs want to continue to spend to keep the warfare and welfare machine running as long as possible.So we could collapse in a debt/fiscal crisis. Our problem is similar to a doctor telling a patience who has gangrene that the leg has to amputate in order for the disease to stop spreading. So we need to extensive cuts in defense,entitlements,cut govt departments(Education,Energy,Homeland Security,Agriculture etc).So a dollar collapse is far away but after 2015 we will pass the rubicon of no return because the diseasse will have already spread.
I'm waiting for this guy to say something profound.
How about this...
Markets, people really live in a complex world and are constantly readjusting to new information as it becomes known to them. Then from all the possibilities of all the things they could be doing at any given moment, they choose the action that best serves their ends. If human beings didn't do this, why would they choose to do anything? So whether the world is in equilibrium or constantly shifting to states of equilibria or it's just one god awful chaotic mess of nothingness and despair, it doesn't matter. Describing whether the world exists in equilibrium or not is meaningless. Economics is the study of human action. Why human beings are motivated to do what they do.
Dr. Ferguson is confusing the common strawman set up by most Economics 101 textbooks with what "economics teaches". Namely the concept of "perfect competition" that never has or will exist given it's requirement for "perfect information". The rest of an Econ 101 book is about why "perfect competition" is a failure and is superimposed that markets have failures. Which is to say, human beings choose things that are "suboptimal". But to describe something as "suboptimal" some sort of standard for optimal must be applied, and that's when the author of the book sells their particular value judgements.
He hit it right on the head. We are following other empires down the path of diminished returns and long lasting depression. And the depression is that the patina has worn off and we see bronze, and we may never again see it shine like it did unless we change into a different country or govt.
My experience has been that the charts are often the pictures worth a thousand or more words in the various efforts to define the credit-collapse and the stagflation crisis: maybe Krasting is having 2nd thoughts tonight on the AUD, breaking down now toward 6 week JPN lows and possible way-lower levels at 77 and 70.
blah, blah, blah. show me the money. i'll chase this greasy pig up or down the hill, no matter.
My downside chart leaders for tomorrow and this week are the AUD, the US Munis and US Bonds, AAPL, and on the upside, the PMs. OZ and other national minerals are commodities, but gold is a currency, hiding in plain sight, and the 2 can part company, AUD (and the U$D) down 10% plus, and gold up to 1450. Or, if not now, then later. Or maybe not.
The only way out is for the states to hold a Constitutional Convention and throw the rascals out. An amendment to limit the size and intrusiveness of the Federal Government could fix things up for awhile.
Don't hold your breath for that to happen. Though I'm excited by how many states have grown backbones recently.
The naysayers are having a difficult time accepting the truth.
After reading Ferguson's book "The Ascent of Money", I realized I was reading very accurate propaganda about the value of bankers and financiers throughout history. It wasn't anything that he actually wrote, it was what he glossed over as far as the devastation the moneychangers inflicted on populations and profitted from. Like now.
Pretty much. The book was a worthless, garbled P.O.S.
...and on a nearby horizon of a distant land there can be heard A Sound of Thunder
http://www.lasalle.edu/~didio/courses/hon462/hon462_assets/sound_of_thun...
POST 9/11 USA = DECLINE BITCHES
DEATH TO THE GREAT SATAN.
ALLAHU AKBAR
FUCK THE TROOPS
Lemme guess...you're in the navy and they wouldn't give you shore leave?
Mad max bicthez!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3L4spg8vyo
overcomplicating schmuk.....too much debt and unsecured liabilities (derivatives) caused the melt down. Nothing new here but the name of bad debt.
he is right on the decline of the US and potential for a dark age
The blame for causing the financial crises is to be shared by all the parties involved.
Individuals kept on spending even in face of declining incomes by using the cheap and easily available loans handed over to them by the bankers.
The bankers kept on lending to the individuals, who they knew would never be able to repay their loans, because they were getting commission and charging exorbitant interest on the loans. Moreover they were able to sell the poor loans (after getting them fraudently rated as AAA) to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The bankers also sold these toxic products to the pension funds and fixed income investors for commissions knowing very well they will go down in value when the borrowers default. The bankers were confident that the government would route tax payers collections to them in case of any mishap as they had become too big to fail and controlled the politicians, rule-makers and the rule enforcers.
The politicians around the world are nothing more than auction items which can be sold to the highest bidder. They will do whatever they can for the lobbyist paying them the maximum amount of money or votes, be it the unions, the banksters, the richest corporations or individuals. They are in the power seat to extract maximum advantage for themselves in the small time frame they occupy the seat of power.
The rest of the population is least of their concerns. The only activity they do is pacify the majority of the population using false statistics and promises of a better future so that they do not lynch them and their masters while they are robbing the taxpayers.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
Unfortunately, no one can really say what risks the Fed took because the Fed does not disclose what collateral it accepted for the loans.
Please consider
Fed Releases Discount-Window Loan Records Under OrderAlso consider Bernanke’s Fed Responds to Pressure for More Transparency
“The free-market system only works if it’s fully informed,” says Lynn E. Turner, who battled the Fed over disclosure issues while serving as the Securities and Exchange Commission’s chief accountant from 1998 to 2001. “There’s a lot of similarity between the Fed and an SUV with blacked-out windows.”
The Fed says such calls threaten its core function: preserving market confidence by acting as a lender of last resort. Publicizing the names of discount-window borrowers could spark bank runs or discourage sick banks from seeking help until they are fatally compromised. “The full monty may not be a good thing,” says Frederic Mishkin, a former Fed governor.
For the Fed, keeping information from investors is nothing new. Congress last year had to pry loose the details of $3.3 trillion worth of crisis-fighting programs that relied on the central bank’s vault. In the late 1990s, the Fed successfully resisted the SEC’s attempt to require banks to stop using hidden funds, or “cookie jar reserves,” to smooth quarterly earnings, says Turner.
Some former Fed insiders say the public should routinely be clued in when private institutions tap the public purse, in the same way the SEC requires companies to inform investors of major financial events. “This should be material information. Investors should have the right to know,” says Roberto Perli, a former Fed board economist who is managing director of International Strategy & Investment in Washington.
So what did we find out?
Not much, because the Fed did not disclose collateral.
Notice the misguided policies of the Fed and FDIC though. By preventing all bank runs for decades, the Fed instilled an artificial and undeserved confidence in banks.
It would be far better to disclose banks in trouble, let them go under one at a time quickly, rather than have a gigantic systemic mess at one time.
Secrecy, in conjunction with fractional reserve lending is an exceptionally toxic brew. Overnight trust can change on a dime, system-wide, and it did.
Moreover, by keeping poor banks alive (and my poster-boy for this is Chicago-based Corus Bank for making massive amounts of construction loans to build Florida condos), more money pours into failed institutions further increasing toxic loans.
Failure of FDIC
FDIC is a part of the problem. When the government guarantees deposits, everyone believes in every bank no matter how poorly they are run or what risks those banks poses. No one has any incentive to seek a bank with good lending practices. Instead they seek a bank that pays the highest yield because it is guaranteed.
Driving deposits to banks that take the most risk is no way to run a system. Yet, that is precisely what the FDIC does, up to the FDIC limit of course.
People look at FDIC as a big success because there was no crisis for decades. Instead, we had one gigantic crisis culminate at once, hardly a fair tradeoff for periods of artificially low problems.
FDIC is Fraudulent
No only is FDIC a problem, it is outright fraudulent to guarantee deposits that cannot possibly be guaranteed in a fractional reserve Ponzi-scheme system.
For further discussion of the problems with fractional reserve lending please see Central Bank Authorized Fraud; Fractional Reserve Lending Problems Go Far Beyond "Duration Mismatch"
Also see an excellent discussion on the Acting Man blog: Fractional Reserve Banking Revisited
Ending the secrecy is easy. Simply abolish the Fed. However, that not the only thing that needs to happen. For a look at solutions, please consider Geithner's Blatant Lies at the G20 Meeting; Four-Pronged Solution
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/fed-releases-895-pdfs-in-response-to.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29Quote: ...the credibility of fiscal policy. That just seems to me like the obvious place where things can turn nasty, and they turn nasty with amazing speed." Unquote
Yes. The US doesn't have a stable or reliable financial system and the value of people's assets is being or has been swindled hasn't yet bogged down the system hasn't yet become clear to all. Perhaps as long as the various swindles continue, it looks like the system is holding up, while in reality it is completely rotted from the inside, if government, the banking system, and Wall Street can be thought of as the heart of our country. They aren't, but in the situation the country is in, government, banks, and W.S. imagine that they are the heart, I think. Or perhaps they're only your typical street criminals too stupid to see that they're killing the goose that lays the golden eggs, for lack of another analogy.
Nothing can be done about it, I think, but our country is as hollow as a melon that has been consumed by rot from the inside. The only question that remains may be "what's next?"
I admire the rigor of Ferguson and others, but does it really matter why economists are such dimwits? How does identifying what their problem is help anyone with the bigger problems of a completely corrupt government, banking system, Wall Street, and etc.?