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Nic Lenoir Of ICAP Sees The S&P At 380, Or Wall St. Vs. DC Round II

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Thu, 05/20/2010 - 17:48 | 364088 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

I saw Tice on Bloomb earlier - he stands by his 400 call (great day for him to be holding court at Lexington Ave)

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 17:53 | 364107 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I was just wondering about what Tice is saying - thanks.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 17:48 | 364091 spartan117
spartan117's picture

S&P500 at 380?  Um, damn.  The only thing I'd be buying at that point would be bullets.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 17:58 | 364126 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

S&P500 at 380?  Um, damn.  The only thing I'd be buying at that point would be bullets.

 

If you don't have bullets already you might not make it to see 380 ;) And don't forget the spam.

 

Don't worry; it's not the end of the world

Just TEOTWAWKI

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 05:05 | 365209 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

the u. s. stock market already had an 80% decline in real terms from 1965 to 1982 and bullets weren't needed.  same for 1929 to 1932 and they didn't have food stamps.  however this time does give me a queasy feeling nonetheless.  one reason is the elites are even more corrupt and feckless than formerly.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:04 | 364147 mikla
mikla's picture

Actually, I'm with him on that.

Recap:

  • Long term:  down.
  • Medium term:  down.
  • Short term:  ? (depends on how much Viagra Ben put in his coffee this morning, but I think the market is picking up steam [true capitulation] and is probably down also)
  • Wildcard:  MASSIVE printing ==> Hyperinflation (may be years away).

We are STILL massively over-bought, no one can service their debts, are leveraged up to their eyebrows, and we still need to see the unwind in positions (like a quadrillion in derivatives).

Here's the acid test:  Would you give $1 to GM, thinking that they could earn a profit on it?  (Not a chance.)  Similarly, would you give $1 to the S&P500, thinking they could earn a profit on it?  (Not a chance.)  That means you need to sell until the answer is "yes".

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:05 | 364156 HFT1
HFT1's picture

Mr Spartan I believe bullets are good but my pic explains what you should try to obtain for now. And for all you gold crazies it will hit 680 during deflation and then CRAZY inflation somewhere around gold 500-600 area. Another 150 pips last pm and I would be watching aud/usd as well as aud/jpy and ignore the euro. Reason being when the 400mm buy cam across the desk I can only say I am glad I was FLAT, no position. I do believe this is inviting a Soros type trade to force it to even steven with the $. That 400mm is intervention and i want no part of it yet...

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 17:48 | 364094 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

There is a very easy way to return from a casino with a small fortune: go there with a large one." ~ Jack Yelton

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 17:56 | 364114 mr brincq
mr brincq's picture

calculate this: s&p div yield is 1.9%....average div yield over 100 year period till 1982 was 5%...Do the math and you end up with +/- 400 for the S&P 500....380 makes a lot of sense

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:00 | 364133 rich_maverick
rich_maverick's picture

That assumes that the cash flows to pay the dividends will be there.  If the economy tanks, profits and cash flows will suffer.  As a consequence, dividends will also suffer.  We may have yield of 3% and S&P 400 and still believe the market is too richly priced.

 

Rich

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:05 | 364157 mr brincq
mr brincq's picture

you are absolutely right.....for more long term information i suggest to go to www.dshort.com....it is now getting late in Amsterdam...midnight.....watch the market slide the slope of hope

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:36 | 364258 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

The problem with that analysis is taxes.  Lowering of capital gains taxes, which were 20% in '82 from nearly 50% in the late 70's, created a huge incentive not to pay dividends which were taxed at marginal rates.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 17:58 | 364125 HFT1
HFT1's picture

Cash Bitches!!

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:35 | 364254 abalone
abalone's picture

Who's your daddy! King Dollar

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:01 | 364138 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

3.0 will be the final insult with hyperinflation once the markets have cleared at absurd lows but that's a few years down the line

I'd be interested to learn how the 'few years' estimate is arrived at. (Not joking...I have no idea but would have guessed it to happen sooner).

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:36 | 364255 legerde
legerde's picture

I believe a few years because I think the majority of society is not aware.  American "Idle" has a few more years before it gets cancelled.  

In seriousness, when a fiat currency used to get created, it might last 20 years (See John Law).  The Fed has been fighting gold since its inception and we are approaching 100 years.   The central bankers are smart and can spin many plates on sticks.  I think they are losing control of things but they have a printing press and lots of power so I have confidence that they can keep the plates spinning a while longer.

 

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 19:27 | 364385 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Hyperinflation is always a failure of confidence, unlike it's cousin inflation which is a monetary tool. It takes a while for people to lose confidence; they have to lose a lot of other things first. Their faith in money is the last thing to vanish.

So how far are we from having losing confidence? Well there is a lot to vanish on the way there. Freeways, restaurants, television, ice cream sundaes. Stuff like that hanging around gives a sense of normalcy. Even petty crime is normal and reassuring. But once "strange shit" starts to happen and "normal shit" doesn't work, the bloom is off the rose.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:02 | 364142 jal
jal's picture

Will the S&P break with its trend and be down on monday?

jal

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 19:12 | 364355 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I agree, I see the piggy backers / trendies getting caught this go round... but to be clear mostly just to insure Congress and the Senate get the message... you see the algos did everything they could this afternoon, but could not hold the line... I am laughing while typing!

 

Wake up calls all around, smart people getting punished...

 

Or, to the moon and everyone gets a free ride and The Congress and Senate are to be trusted by Wall Street?! Still laughing!

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:17 | 364200 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

Good thing that didn't happen a year ago because S&P 380 would pretty much end all the insurers with annuities linked to the S&P.

Thankfully, a year later, they're in such good shape that they could pay back the TARP, so you just *know* they were smart enough to take all this risk off their sheets.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:29 | 364227 Rainman
Rainman's picture

An S&P of just 750 would be enough to knock the snot out of the public pension funds. Even they couldn't paper over a disaster loss like that over 30 years. They've been sniffing those speculative green shoots for years and they'd be buyers on the way down for sure.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:47 | 364294 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Dow Jones fair value 1182.40

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 19:15 | 364360 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

and the s&p @ $17.70

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 19:51 | 364442 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

73.90?

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 20:09 | 364475 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Awesome point. And they'll be no running to the States to fill the holes. It's time for a very hard reality to start setting in.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 18:30 | 366819 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by ZackAttack
on Thu, 05/20/2010 - 17:17
#364200

Good thing that didn't happen a year ago because S&P 380 would pretty much end all the insurers with annuities linked to the S&P. Thankfully, a year later, they're in such good shape that they could pay back the TARP, so you just *know* they were smart enough to take all this risk off their sheets.

ZackAttack,

                  Paying the TARP monies back to the American Tax Payers, the 10% interest money! by using the 0% FED window... is not good for the Tax Payer(s) and is NOT! us getting paid back... We had 10% interest comig in now we have 0% interest going out...

 

its a not a 105 repo scam, BUT IT IS WORSE!

 

Fucking GREAT! Deal for us! Thank God for the Lobby!

 

The Banks are using profits to pay for their Lobby? not the 0% Fed Window?

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/08/bank-lobbyists/


**** "In the first three months of 2009, the financial sector spent $104.7 million to lobby Congress and the administration, down 8% from the same period last year" ****

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124640640747376775.html

So that I am clear... 2008 was a vintage year for Banks? they made soooooooooooooooooooooo much money on 2008 that in the first 3 months of 2009... they could drop $104.7 MILLION DOLLARS?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Economic_Stabilization_Act_of_2008

 

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:27 | 364220 hambone
hambone's picture

Nic,

380 on the S&P does sound pretty stupid...but only because human greed allowed 1500 on the S&P which should have never happened.  Greed and fear (or leverage and par) represented in their ultimate numerical values.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:29 | 364224 Psquared
Psquared's picture

The markets will be shut down and we will have extended holidays long before we reach 380. I am thinking by summer's end we will be looking at SnP <900 and then rally in the fall. Of course, I am assuming a lot of things don't happen that could happen which would make SnP 380 very possible.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:35 | 364252 Duesco
Duesco's picture

Helicopter Ben will personally kill thousands of traders before he lets the S&P get to 380.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 23:05 | 364866 Dr o love
Dr o love's picture

Coming soon to a theater near you.

 

Thai c.bank declares Thursday, Friday bank holidays

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE64H0A120100519?type=marketsNews

 

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:29 | 364225 gimli
gimli's picture

Are we going to bounce tomorrow from...........

a. ppt

b. Short covering

c. OE chicanery

d. None of the above --- straight to the bottom of the oily Gulf of Mexico

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:47 | 364287 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Washed up like oil.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:42 | 364273 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I went long SDS 33.15 and sold my long equities, as I said yesterday. I believe we will see a bounce off the /ES at 1055ish overnight. I may sell if we bounce at the open on Germany vote and/or bank reform solidifying. 

However, I firmly believe we are going lower after a bounce to 1100 area. My target is 850 by September before rallying to end of year.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:54 | 364313 Coming Down in ...
Coming Down in Powdery Sparks's picture

You are truly a cretin.  You've been long the whole way down...

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 19:31 | 364365 akak
akak's picture

"I went long SDS 33.15 and sold my long equities, as I said yesterday. I believe we will see a bounce off the /ES at 1055ish overnight. I may sell if we bounce at the open on Germany vote and/or bank reform solidifying."

Harry, your wife told me in bed today that in the last ten years you have never been long even once.

But speaking of your wife, and a bounce ....

I sure do like her head and shoulders, and her double top, and her smooth and supple trendlines.

For her part, she seemed to appreciate my ascending wedge and parabolic blowoff!

 

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 20:39 | 364538 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Faaaarrrrkkkk me!!!! I just spat Lindt chocolate and Spanish red from the Riojas region on my screen. Akak, that was pure fukin gold!!

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 21:38 | 364680 Takingbets
Takingbets's picture

You dog!!, I blew soda from my mouth to my iPhone reading your whitty post. Lol!!!!!!!

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 22:57 | 364837 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Hey TB and Steve -

Are you guys married? No matter what you may think of the guy - don't bring a man's wife in to the mix - unless he invites you to.  Stupid.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 23:11 | 364876 Takingbets
Takingbets's picture

Well in my heterosexual marriage I happen to be the wife, and yes I thought it was funny!

It's a joke and we all know Harry has very thick skin, if he dident he wouldent have been posting his ridiculous bull market commentary on this site, IMHO.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 23:19 | 364885 akak
akak's picture

I just hope that Harry is willing to return the watch I left on the nightstand.  Damn, that's like the fourth time I've done that!  You'd think I'd learn by now!

Sorry for getting the sheets messed up too, Harry --- l'amour has a way of doing that.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 00:09 | 364964 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

That's what I get for speed reading. AKAK, Steve and TB aren't the turds in the punch (my apologies) - you are.  Hey big man, if you think you are being funny on a website, I dare you to take your act to a local bar of your choice and try it out. You won't be laughing - guaranteed.  Grade A punk.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 00:12 | 364979 akak
akak's picture

Wow, are you trying to live up to your moniker here?

It's called a JOKE --- as in humor. You know, "h-u-m-o-r"?

Try it sometime, you may like it.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 00:16 | 364986 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Just the village idiot, buddy. You are just a freakin' idiot if you think that kind of talk is a joke.  The guy is a target - his wife is not. Have nice day.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 00:55 | 365039 akak
akak's picture

You seem to be overstressed.

Have a drink, go for a walk, or play with one of your kids or your dog.

I can't understand why you are getting so bent out of shape over a harmless and absurd little joke.  And worse yet, I see there are four other prudes who agree with you.

Some people just have NO sense of humor!  I'm guessing you're from the Bible Belt.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 00:58 | 365056 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

You don't get it.  Walk on.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 00:08 | 364944 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

TB, glad you responded - I lumped you in when all you did was laugh.  My apologies.  But seriously, that one goes too far, at least that's the way I feel. Isn't it interesting that a man might take more offence than a woman - guess it's a man thing.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 00:56 | 365052 akak
akak's picture

Or a cuckold thing.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 08:02 | 365302 Takingbets
Takingbets's picture

Thanks but I really dident need an apology.

I only have one question, do we actually know if Mr Wanker is even married? If not, your getting upset about this is all for not.

Fri, 05/21/2010 - 09:27 | 365463 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Call it a matter of principal, then. I don't think there are very many people on this site that really would want to see the conversation digress into personal attacks on one's family life.  I know I woudn't want to. keep that popcorn coming - gonna be another fun day.  Cheers.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 18:45 | 364282 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Walled St runs DC.

The movements have never been more volitile.  Silver is saying it wants to run for the hills, and dow looks like it is donzo. 

Good luck trading!

Check out the move from 10:30

Silver wants out like Germany.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!