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Nic Lenoir Turns Bearish With Conviction

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Nic Lenoir of ICAP

Bearish with conviction

All forward looking indicators point to severe economic weakness, I am talking recession here, not just a sub-par 1.5% growth. Most economists like my friends Julian Brigden and Jonas Thulin who do cycle analysis using leading indicators have highlighted this much more eloquently than I could quantify my bearishness which in economical terms is the summation of a lot of observations but lacks the timing and numerical dimension they can provide. The following link I found very interesting in that perspective:

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/09/september-28-2010-graphic-peek-into-our.html

Where my timing leaves less to be desired is in terms of technicals. 3 weeks ago now I recommended buying VIX calls, specifically I like the 37.5 November expiry calls. We had a signal in VIX to sell stocks with a reversal outside the bollinger band, which historically precedes the highs in stocks. The lag has recently been 7 to 10 business days, but I was definitely open to a longer lag this time around since there are many people trying to get involved from the short side and the specter of the Fed and the plunge protection team looming. That is mainly why I suggested buying November expiry and wait before getting outright short.

After observing the price action a bit more and reflecting on the patterns, I have come to the conclusion that the market will top between 1,155 and 1,164. In that zone we have in order the top of the channel (120-minute chart) guiding the consolidation since July, the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off since April's highs, the resistance joining the 2007 tops and the 2010 tops, and the C=A of the correction start in July (daily chart). I add to that relatively convincing divergence and the incapacity of daily 21-RSI to bypass 60 which is an excellent confirmation of a correction in bear market and not a new bullish impulse. Gathering all that and adding to it the VIX signal we had early in September, the economic mix which is turning very sour, the start of trade wars, the ever present sovereign default crisis in Europe, the common knowledge that bank balance sheets are marked to solvency and the housing double dip, and I think it's fair to say the pricing for the major equity indices is rather generous. I did say yesterday that it all starts and ends with the USD. Well, the attached chart says that based on M2 EURUSD is headed back to 1.10 or even parity, and USD bullish sentiment according to CFTC is pretty much 0%. We also had Fed speakers on the air today saying that more Treasury purchases may not be the answer.

I will have much more on M2 considerations and currency valuation in the next few days but I have not yet sufficient proof to support my theory. When I do I will share!

Good luck trading,

Nic  

 

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Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:38 | 613731 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Die, AAPL!

1200 coming up on bogus GDP +3.1%.  Why should they stop lying now?

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:01 | 613974 nwskii
nwskii's picture

I can safely call the top in AAPL. Due to the cat that they opened a store in Spokane WA. Gateway did this=toast, Keytronics, Future Shop, Circuit City... Shall I go on? Notice that DELL will NEVER open a store in Spokane. AAPL will be like MSFT hovering in the 20-30 range for eternity

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:39 | 613736 Sherman McCoy
Sherman McCoy's picture

Great, another bufoon calling "the top".  Help me out, when did he tell us to buy?

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:43 | 613751 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

Sherman, where is your credibility?  Nic has actually been one of the better guys to follow.  Once you post your predictions on a daily basis for all to see, then throw some stones.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:26 | 613862 Chemba
Chemba's picture

Nic has been one of the better guys to follow?  really?  you mean here on Zerohedge, whose general thesis has been to short SPX since 666.  And even if you paired that SPX short with long gold (good call ZH), you'd still be down HUGE!

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:35 | 613890 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

I think Nic makes his mind up on a little shorter time basis than that. I've actually never seen Zerohedge outright advocate shorting the SPX - more just trying to illustrate the farce that the American economy has become.  Good money management and having a good bullshit detector can be mutually exclusive for months or years at a time. 

 

I think Nic advised buying in early August.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:38 | 613911 Chemba
Chemba's picture

that's fair.  I like Nic's posts; just feeling "punchy"

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:49 | 613945 Alex in SFBA
Alex in SFBA's picture

"You'd still be down HUGE!"

There goes the credibility. As a simple manipulation with any stock chart show, going short SPY at 666 and going long GLD at the same time would now result in a loss of about 15%. 

Inconvenient, but hardly "HUGE".

And SPY isn't done falling, by any stretch of imagination, although timing is uncertain. So, as of today, this trade looks quite attractive.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:02 | 613979 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

Nic is a technician and evidently there are a lot of techinical indicators that point to the market going lower or so I'm told.

What annoys me is that he doesn't put a lot of fundamental analysis in there. Like what's going to happen to the market if the Fed pumps in another 1 Trillion in liquidity? Nic doesn't have an answer for that.

For some reason ZeroHedge keeps believing this guy has skill. I have yet to be impressed.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:23 | 614163 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

And, frankly, you can throw all TA and FA out the window when the only participants in the "market" are PDs flush with POMO cash.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:44 | 613752 mynhair
mynhair's picture

He just did.

" buying November expiry"

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:53 | 613772 Iam Rich
Iam Rich's picture

Wow...you can't be serious.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/get-your-risk-double-dip

and there is one prior to this that I simply don't feel like looking for.  Pay attention.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:20 | 614019 kengland
kengland's picture

"On the daily we see that the C = A target is all the way at 1,163... I don't know that we will necessary get there but it is one of the risk. I will be looking to sell this move once it starts showing exhaustion (read divergence!) but for now I would be out of short equity positions. "

 

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:16 | 613834 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Great, another bufoon calling "the top".  Help me out, when did he tell us to buy?

 

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.”
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

“This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan… that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.”
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

“For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright.”
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:54 | 613944 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

To be fair it was Tuesday, August 31 within 20 minutes at and just after the market close when a buy for 200,000 EMini SP  was placed.........there is more but the 'fix' did turn the SP up from the 1040 and Dow from 9950/10,000......

The 'fix' to close shorts and get long was also noted by RobotTrader.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:44 | 613748 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Shorting this market is more dangerous than being long - who are the sellers?  Fing retail is sold out - do ya think that Hugh is gunna bang the spoos?  Unlikely.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:03 | 613749 Bigger Dickus
Bigger Dickus's picture

The first chart was taken from the Youtube moron who says the Stupid & Pissdrunk index is going to 100.

 

F### off Nic Lenoir. F### you and the keynesian donkey you rode in on.

 

edit: my point is if you think technical analysis will give you an edge in this rigged market, you deserve to lose your ass

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:06 | 613806 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Agree, TA is the biggest pile of shit I have ever known.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:31 | 613874 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Here's a BIGGER PILE for you.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:22 | 614025 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

 

Number 1 answer.......technically speaking........very, very nice technicals

Rocky........you giving wb7 a run for the money?.........love pictures........so much easier than having to read words.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:27 | 613864 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

im sure anyone who has been in the market over say 5 years knows what that line is.... its not just EP on youtube... tho im not fond of the 100 call

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:39 | 613912 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Don't buy, don't sell stocks: buy gold and swiss francs.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:26 | 614169 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I don't understand why Mr. Dickus has rec'd 22 junks. Aside from the egregious profanity, the man has made a great point. Plus, he's got the best avatar of any of us. Not sure where he got that picture of Mrs. Ferguson but I don't really mind him using it.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 01:17 | 614691 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Maybe because he claims Nic took his chart from a moron on youtube and stated he was a keynesian. How is he a keynesian? BTW I didn't junk him.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 22:07 | 614370 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Conventional technical indicators do suck ass.

Proprietary ones, however, do not.

Quick guide:

1) If an indicator looks like detrended price, it's crap.

2) If an indicator flattens out on the upper or lower ranges of its scale, it's crap.

3) If an indicator is based on lagging inputs (moving averages, etc..) it's most certainly crap.

I know that knocks out a lot of the conventional ones. Sorry, just the way it is.

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 01:19 | 614696 Rick64
Rick64's picture

 Which technical indicators aren't lagging?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 04:10 | 614911 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

The ones that aren't flogged to death on every financial blog on the internet. Proprietary indicators that are modeled after characteristics that don't have the 'crap' flags I mentioned above.

Yes, they do exist.

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 04:13 | 614914 Rick64
Rick64's picture

An example?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 04:15 | 614916 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Given its nature, I thought that would be self-explanatory.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/proprietary

Just saying they exist, and no, not about to share.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 04:36 | 614921 Rick64
Rick64's picture

 I was thinking along the lines of one that was being marketed, and it was not my intention to get you to share your personal one. 

2. something that is used, produced, or marketed under exclusive legal right of the inventor or maker

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:13 | 615212 Orly
Orly's picture

The only technical indicator that is not lagging is price.  Every other indicator has traps and pitfalls because they are derived, extrapolated and rendered from price, inherently yielding a delay in the function of the mathematical model.  Candlestick patterns are a picture of the one indicator- price.  Learn to identify certain candle patterns and you're already two steps ahead of the game.

The best you can do is try to assess the "mood" of the market to time your entries and exits.  One way to do it is with the Center of Gravity indicator and the Awesome Oscillator.

When trading, try to find the indicators that work for you and your style.  Remember to find a way to use indicators in ways most traders don't, which will give you an edge.  As soon as most traders use it, it becomes moot.

:D

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 17:10 | 616694 Rick64
Rick64's picture

  Thanks for the advice. I have my own system of trading but am always looking for ways to improve which includes looking at different ideas not neccessarily to copy them but to perhaps spark some new ideas. I always enjoy reading your comments.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:53 | 613770 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The link  to automatic earth graphs is excellent.....thanx.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 22:11 | 614381 sumo
sumo's picture

The article on AE is excellent.

My main takeaway is that the 91-day CMI leads S&P by around 6 months, so if you're putting on positions using macroeconomics as a guide - like going short S&P because of housing markets, unemployment, consumer spending, i.e. reality - make sure you can wait at least 6 months for the trade to turn your way and overwhelm the pumpedy doodah antics of Feddie Ben and Mordor on the Hudson.

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 00:54 | 614660 candyman
candyman's picture

sumo, I 2nd yor opinion it is an excellent analysis for the Bear side.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:58 | 613783 sandman.
sandman.'s picture

I always appreciate your insight.  Some of my favorite posts here

 

Thanks Nic.

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:58 | 613786 rapacious rachel wants to know (not verified)
rapacious rachel wants to know's picture

this article written many year ago might well have been written today:

http://www.modernhistoryproject.org/mhp/ArticleDisplay.php?Article=McFad...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 07:29 | 615036 sumo
sumo's picture

Great link. Thanks.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:01 | 613788 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Nice work, Nic.  

The game's afoot.  If a shred of rationality exists in the marketplace, the next 60 days should see the shorts exultant.  On the other hand, if 1170 can be broken, we should all just admit defeat, and the triumph of manipulation.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:03 | 613798 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Ms. Cleo's long lost retarded brother.  What the fuck am I supposed to do with this drivel?  Honestly, do people get paid for this shit?

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:03 | 613800 Rick64
Rick64's picture

 All of you complaining about Nic should go back and check his previous posts. This guy is one of the best. Thanks Nic as always a good job.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:07 | 613808 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

LOL, right...how far back am I allowed to go?  Something tells me his accuracy is just round-abouts 50%.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 01:13 | 614689 Rick64
Rick64's picture

As far as you want, he isn't perfect but a lot better than most. He warned on being short for these last 2-3 wks.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:04 | 613804 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

I thought this market didn't trade on fundamentals.....nor technicals for that matter. All you need is the POMO and Leo, and the market is green forever. 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:07 | 613807 Hot Shakedown
Hot Shakedown's picture

Nic- I dig all of your work but I have to think at this point obama (not worthy of a capitalization) and his Hee Haw gang will allow a minor correction for credibility - but the range has been set - do you see a break of 1040? I used to but I would not be surprised if the gap around 1121 is all that we be allowed by our "
leaders"

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:27 | 614036 kengland
kengland's picture

Why would they "allow a minor correction for credibility?" They are about to light a match at a gas station with EVERYONE BEING SHORT. COT tells the story. Everything you read here on zh is out there and levered short accordingly.

Do you ignorantly believe the Fed and Treasury don't have their own GS tech's to know when to light the match? This is an issue of national security and they will not allow the populace to believe the US is dead. After all, all j6p sees every day is a green market and those who talk against it look like idiots.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:12 | 613827 no life
no life's picture

At some point the POMO will simply function as the dumb money that isn't in the market any more.. thanks US taxpayer!

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:29 | 614043 kengland
kengland's picture

Exaclty. All folks want to see is their portfolio "go up." Follow this up with the still ever present mind fack that ALL STOCKS GO UP OVER THE LONG RUN and they go back to watching tv

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:23 | 613851 Chemba
Chemba's picture

"automatic earth" LOL!  Give me a break.

"Stoneleigh"  More like "Stonedoutofhermind"

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:25 | 613858 Pillage
Pillage's picture

Somebody give Chumba Wumba a break.

http://annarborgrocerydelivery.com/shop/images/kitkat.jpg

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:25 | 613855 Spartan
Spartan's picture

"USD bullish sentiment according to CFTC is pretty much 0%"

The worrry here is that retail is very long dollar from the sentiment indexes especially on USDJPY and USDCHF...

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:28 | 613869 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

IMVHO The costs of short selling are too great for me to want to do it, except in a confirmed bear trend when a fave such as C or FNM is imploding but hasn't fallen yet.  (But unlike in a more honest age, look what the authorities put short-sellers through in 2008 when the shorts were really, really right.)

If one of the gods of short selling, Bill Fleckenstein, got entirely out of the short business last year, and is only nibbling (so far as he says) at most on the short end, I'm going with his hypothesis which is that the stock market probably continues to bounce in a wide trading range, and I therefore conclude that it's just not worth it to guess which way it will bounce when.

I'd rather try to find an undervalued precious metals miner or even bravely speculate against a Mad Max scenario by buying a muni that yields enough to make it maybe worth buying. 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:32 | 613881 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Goddamned trolls showing up here every fucking night about this time filling the threads with garbage.  Go do something useful....weave a basket, walk in traffic...whatever.

Just go the fuck away.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:33 | 613882 JohnG
JohnG's picture

dupe

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:44 | 613922 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

The key element about these charts (esp those on the automatic earth link) is that the world's at a pivot point, squat on the goal line. The market's a cocktail made of time and price and the time bottle is empty. It's almost binary, expansion/contraction, red market/green market and on whichever side destiny breaks, by golly jumpin gee, she's gonna break bones.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:51 | 613951 deadhead
deadhead's picture

I enjoy and appreciate your input Nic.  Thanks for contributing.

As to your comment..."the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off since April's highs,"  

I would note that the 61.8 retrace is SPX 1140.   

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:01 | 613972 Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

Thanks as ever Nic for your thoughts which I enjoy reading.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:23 | 614027 Dr. Copper
Dr. Copper's picture

Nic's been calling for 825 SPX for over a year.  But don't worry, everybody reads Nic.  More bs to shake out the weak hands.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:26 | 614034 99er
99er's picture

Chart: CAD/HKD

War by proxy? As they say..."We shall see."

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/cadhkd.html

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 23:36 | 614052 99er
99er's picture

Chart: DX

Double Bottomed Dollar.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/dx_29.html

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:34 | 614053 Pedro
Pedro's picture

POMO oh POMO, Where art thou POMO!

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:40 | 614067 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Nobody can protect Humans from themselves.

Thank you Nic for the conveyance.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:50 | 614085 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Lament of the Stocktading Mariner: "In the hold of every sunken ship, you will ALWAYS find a chart."

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:54 | 614089 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Enjoyed the piece - looking forward to your proof.  Just finished watching 'ole Kudlow and gotta say he had some clear thinking dudes on.  QEII is bullshit and everyone knows it.  Its like throwing a grenade thats glued to your hand.  Everyone Ben knows, loves, trusts, hates, and has respect for will perish if he pulls that pin......but its like electricity following the path of least resistance if even for a short trip, I think he thinks he's gotta buy time.  Its always worked before, right?  Remember, I'm loaded for bear with VXX, so consider the source, 'ya know.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:58 | 614098 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

This time it's different

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:15 | 614141 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The market is getting stronger, not weaker.

Oils took off today.

If the financials turn around, bears are going to get destroyed.

McClellan and Summation on NYSE still going up.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html

Bears are still standing in front of a rolling train picking up speed.

 

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 22:41 | 614411 UncleBen
UncleBen's picture

Robot-douche, you suck moose cock

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:24 | 614166 espirit
espirit's picture

Nic- Normally I admire your posts, but "da boyz" can make the chart look like anything they want to. After all, aren't all the indicators lagging?

If you can call the turns in advance, you are either psychic or implicated as an insider.

Leave the guesses to the chat boards or pick the winning lotto numbers.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:25 | 614171 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

With the exception of GMCR, there are no signs of weakness in the IBD Top 100:

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9505972

Gary Kaltbaum is still upbeat about the market, but he's looking for a 3 - 5 day pullback.

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/092918.mp3

 

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:49 | 614224 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

And there never will be untill there is. If buying extended stocks was effective IBD 100 circa March 2000 would be a riot.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 22:51 | 614407 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

For a girl you put out some really good stuff......hmm......I can keep getting it......right?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 01:26 | 614704 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Agree on the pullback then a continued ramp up until late Nov. - Dec..

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:26 | 614175 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

On what planet does that chart mean market is going up?  One ends barely up and one ends barely down.....is this that "new" math my kids are complaining about? 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:34 | 614179 99er
99er's picture

Chart: SPX

Diamond Top?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/spx_1051.html

It may finally be time to Kick Out The Jams.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XhQRFO4M7A

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:42 | 614209 Alfred
Alfred's picture

Pardon me...

If the stock market is rigged, fixed, or otherwise no longer connected with market forces, isn't all technical analysis really just bullshit? uh... bitches?

BTW, that other guy stole my persona, so bite me.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:45 | 614216 ubrama
ubrama's picture

Nick,

Not sure if you respond to comments...but thought I will give it a try.

What has been keeping me from entering the short side with full force is that the credit is way too cheap and there is no way the equity or the FX markets will have a major re-tracement without a significant deterioration in the credit markets. While you mention cycles as the basis of your current conviction,  should'nt one wait for deterioration in credit for confirmation before stepping in?

Thanks

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 21:10 | 614257 Mydixie Wrecked
Mydixie Wrecked's picture

why do the Zh knuckleheads have to disparage everyone who takes a position in something other than gold? Almost all the BS artists like turd ferguson (i pick on him because i see his disparaging comments ALL THE TIME. get a life Turd!) are just out there bad mouthing someone with an opinion. it seems the only opinion that doesn't get disparaged here is 'gold bitchez'.

Nic's a trader and i respect his opinion and appreciate him sharing it with us. he's not stupid nor a fool. if you don't, think TA works and the fundamentals are broke because of PPT; then get a life, buy your gold and quit paying attention to analysts who are taking a position on stocks. 

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 21:10 | 614258 Mydixie Wrecked
Mydixie Wrecked's picture

why do the Zh knuckleheads have to disparage everyone who takes a position in something other than gold? Almost all the BS artists like turd ferguson (i pick on him because i see his disparaging comments ALL THE TIME. get a life Turd!) are just out there bad mouthing someone with an opinion. it seems the only opinion that doesn't get disparaged here is 'gold bitchez'.

Nic's a trader and i respect his opinion and appreciate him sharing it with us. he's not stupid nor a fool. if you don't, think TA works and the fundamentals are broke because of PPT; then get a life, buy your gold and quit paying attention to analysts who are taking a position on stocks. 

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 21:11 | 614260 Mydixie Wrecked
Mydixie Wrecked's picture

why do the Zh knuckleheads have to disparage everyone who takes a position in something other than gold? Almost all the BS artists like turd ferguson (i pick on him because i see his disparaging comments ALL THE TIME. get a life Turd!) are just out there bad mouthing someone with an opinion. it seems the only opinion that doesn't get disparaged here is 'gold bitchez'.

Nic's a trader and i respect his opinion and appreciate him sharing it with us. he's not stupid nor a fool. if you don't, think TA works and the fundamentals are broke because of PPT; then get a life, buy your gold and quit paying attention to analysts who are taking a position on stocks. 

 

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 21:25 | 614264 Artful Dodger
Artful Dodger's picture

Clearly, with the S&P limit-down 30 basis points today, this is a victory for the bears.

I have the feeling Thursday will be volatile, one way or the other.

(P.S. The TSX (that's Canada, duh) made a two-year high today. 110 bp beat over the S&P today, and that's really without meaningful participation from the gold companies [+16 bp]. Go figure. http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/29092010/6/finance-tsx-drives-2-year-...)

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 21:48 | 614339 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Several foreign markets are making new 2-year highs.

But the bears are resolute, they are shorting anyway.

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 22:55 | 614441 prophet
prophet's picture

What is it that gets said over and over again about not fighting the fed?

-profd

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 23:10 | 614471 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Keep it coming.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 01:26 | 614703 fresbee
fresbee's picture

Ha ha eur/usd 1.1? I dont know how old this fella is but we can be safe;y sure he will never live to see 1.1 on eur/usd.

 

EUR is moving to mid 1.4 in this leg up...before a correction and another wave of move to 1.6 before Q1 2011. That is confirmed from fundamentals (Willingness to implement austerity with an iron hand not caring too much for some odd protests here and there) and charts which are clearly showing a strong directional move. 

 

Now obviosuly there will be fools like Nic who am not sure will ever be able to manage anyone money and the best he can do is write and write. 

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 01:28 | 614709 fresbee
fresbee's picture

and then there is ZH who can only see Gold. You should paint this site Yellow and then distribute Gold coins. That should create some shortage of Gold and finally bring your $2000 price. 

 

Here is a challenge. If Gold was such a preserver of wealth as some perverts believe, then hwy does Gold have these decades of price correction followed by directional moves up. It is just another commodity which is closely linked to Money supply just like any other commodity (Copper and Silver). 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 07:43 | 615050 zack
zack's picture

I could make the same argument about BernieMadoff'sFund/Gold ...kept going up (for years)...until it didn't.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 06:58 | 615012 Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

Read this site on a regular basis and you will see how gold is different

http://jsmineset.com/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!