Nic Lenoir's Market Close Observations
From Nic Lenoir of ICAP
Since I just got back today after 5 days away, I will say little since I need to reflect a bit more on the price action.
Until I send a more complete market overview tomorrow, there are a few things I want to point out: The market data is atrocious and yet we fail to accelerate lower. I have highlighted the past two weeks how the 1,040/1,050 are should provide strong support here and so ar so good. We remain core short from 1,126 but feel rather pleased to be out of tactical positions so the chopping around the lows does not give us any headaches. I still believe we should see 1,085/1,100 at the minimum before selling off more aggressively.
Beyond noting the daily support for the S&P and concurrent support for the DAX tested and held today, the intraday volume and month end activity into tonight's close is worth noting: 200,000 ESU0 (mini S&P) futures traded in the last 10 minutes. Even this may very well be simple month end activity, expect most algos out there to take good note of the volume spike on the uptick. The market kept trading strong in after hours and more could be expected on the back of this. Should this play out it could give the momentum necessary for us to go kiss 1,100 goodbye before moving lower. In terms of economic data the work my friends Julian Brigden and Jonas Thulin were kind enough to share with me more than comforted my very doom outlook for the next 2/3 quarters, so we will be looking at reloading tactical shorts into the rally should it materialize.
Good luck trading,