Niels Jensen Asks If Plunging Chinese Power Output Is Indicative Of A "Dramatic Economic Slowdown"

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Thu, 02/03/2011 - 10:59 | 930723 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Power consumption in the US is also still way down. I'd link an article about AEP, but too hard on this i-phone.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:35 | 930819 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I have heard rumors that uninhabited structures require far less power. 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 15:44 | 932016 egdeh orez
egdeh orez's picture

Are these power numbers year-over-year? If so, then it's not too surprising.

1Q10 energy consumption growth is obviously going to be super high compared to 1Q09, since the economy fell off a cliff then.  By 4Q09, I would imaging the energy consumption had recovered, meaning growth in 4Q10 would not be as high.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 18:35 | 932774 StychoKiller
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Yeah, ghosts don't need to turn on lamps due to their own luminescence, nor are they washing their ectoplasmic sheets! :>D

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:01 | 930733 Cursive
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And remember - electricity usage is absolutely realtime - there is no inventory component. The only skew would be waste of unnecessary usage.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:28 | 930786 tonyw
tonyw's picture

What makes you think the electricity figures are genuine? Remember they only revealed huge increases to their gold stores after several years. I would put no more value on any figures from China than that. They will tell you what they want you to hear.

Likewise Mubarak has "no idea" where the thugs came from, yeah right! He'll go real soon now just go home and calm down so he can send his guys out to kill and arrest them.

The only way you will ever get reasonable jobs back is to introduce a large import tax on Chinese goods. If not then bye bye America.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 15:04 | 931844 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Mark J. Lundeen has been keeping electrical production stats from Barron's, doing amazing work. see his work, below, in the section on Electrical Power.

http://www.gold-speculator.com/mark-lundeen/33386-bear-market-race-week-...

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:02 | 930734 Bearster
Bearster's picture

You mean central planning of the economy by the State doesn't work?

I know... what if we break a lot of windows, that would stimulate the economy right??

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:19 | 930773 snowball777
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Do me a favor. Go count the number of things in your house that say "Made in China" on the bottom (yeah, everyone thinks they're the one person buying American, but that's been an impossibility since about 1996). Then go look at the dollar reserves and treasuries sitting in China. Clearly letting global capitalists export American jobs overseas was a big win for the US, huh? Now STFU and go sit in the corner until called.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:34 | 930801 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I don't really see where either of you were wrong in your sentiment.  Your points are mostly tangential.

The one place I would disagree is where you say our jobs were "exported".  This is no more true than the assertion that China "exported" their population growth to America or elsewhere with their one Child policy.  Fact is, we DESTROYED the productive jobs here in America with taxation and regulation.  New factories opened in China and took jobs producing goods for consumption in America, because the government continued to subsidize our consumer sector.  Those factories would have opened with or without the destruction of American productive capital.  They would just be making different things.

You can argue that the dollars they received for their goods allowed them to build their industrial base, but this is clearly not the case, as they NEVER SPENT THEM.  They are sitting on that giant hoard of foreign reserves rather than using them to buy goods and services from the rest of the world, especially America.  You can't build a factory by burying dollars in the ground, no matter how many you pour in there.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:53 | 930921 patience...
patience...'s picture

"Fact is, we DESTROYED the productive jobs here in America with taxation and regulation" 

true but also add a heavy dose of corporate greed to the mix.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:05 | 930742 Mike2756
Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:20 | 930777 snowball777
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Well then I'm projecting that I'll have 25% growth YoY. See how easy that was?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:04 | 930743 Jason T
Jason T's picture

they have all our manufacturing jobs.. except those that make weapons.. any way.  high speed rails, nuclear power plants, and before we know it, sending man to Mars.  

 

All we have is rhetoric about WTF

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:05 | 930744 AntiMort
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It would be nice to see a comparison to 2009 power consumption so we could dismiss the seasonal variation argument.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:06 | 930746 VFR
VFR's picture

Interesting but no surprises. but no problem soon we will be able to grow more crops when Betelgeuse goes supernova and provides the Earth with a second sun. In fact I reckon the stock and commodoties markets have already built this in .

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:13 | 930763 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Betelgeuse going is one thing that I hope happens in my lifetime, it will be the greatest fuckin show on earth...I'm pissed because Halley's comet was a disappointment this time round (at you only get one crack at that one)

It is also far enough away that it will be safe from a radiation standpoint. Won't do much much for the growing season though, it'll fade quickly (~60 days)

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 14:04 | 931573 SilverRhino
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Check out Gamma Velorum if you want to see something interesting that could go boom. 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 14:31 | 931675 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Will do....

Damn... southern hemisphere...  Wolf-Rayet stars are fascinating objects

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:29 | 930794 ageofreason
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The problem with that is that we won't know until probably a couple years after it happens....so we can't play the futures...

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:34 | 930814 Flakmeister
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 About 750 yrs....

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:07 | 930749 snowball777
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Nan Di!

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:08 | 930752 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

The "market" appears to be broken this morning.  What's going on?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:09 | 930753 SumDumGuy
SumDumGuy's picture

Must be a lot of snow in China.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:12 | 930758 jharry
jharry's picture

Hmm.  Most interesting set of metrics for any economy.  I guess we just watch China crash and then buy the bottom. That's what Gary North suggests.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:15 | 930766 Bob
Bob's picture

QE3 is gonna be a bloodbath. 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:33 | 931408 Rogerwilco
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Didn't you hear the news? It is possible to push on a rope, as long as you piss up the rope first, and then freeze it. QE3 will demonstrate this amazing breakthrough in rope-pushing technology.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:17 | 930768 waldocktrades
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I've also read that letter and have been using different data to arrive at the same conclusion. We wrote about it last week.

http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com/2011/01/27/defending-the-globa...

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:18 | 930770 apberusdisvet
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Mao's record of 200 million deaths will soon be broken by Ben, along with cheers at the FED:  "we're #1, we're #1.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:19 | 930775 ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

This data and graph must be in currency paid for electricity not actual electricity produced. In an economic system where the state can push the cost of electricity up or down at their whim (or lie about the figures at their whim) this data and graph aren't worth squat. I'd like to see a graph of actual electricity produced. Even then the figures from the Chinese government (or any government for that matter) could not be taken seriously. This story is totally 100% useless.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:26 | 930787 LehmanRefugee
LehmanRefugee's picture

I think this a production constraint (supply side). New power plant capacity has not kept up with demand. You can "google news" stories of a 6GW expected shortage in south china provinces this year. Anyhow, this doesn't take away from the investment thesis here: reduction in growth of power consumption (regardless if it comes from supply side or demand side) will lead to lowering of GDP growth rates.

 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:27 | 930788 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Hey guys-

China took advice from Leo and Harry, and put everything in solars.  They are now able to generate the same 10% GDP growth with only 1/4 the electricity, and did that all in just a year.  We really should sit back and learn from them.  We too can have 10% GDP growth next year with only 25% of our current power usage!

/sarc

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:33 | 930813 ageofreason
ageofreason's picture

Problem is that those solar cells say made in China, so they are ineffecient and will probably rust and fall apart in a couple of months....

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:48 | 930887 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

ROTFLMAO!

Even in Switzerland my electricity provider discloses only 0.07% is solar (did I miss a 0?). At least here they didn't cook the books (but >80% electricity input is reported as *unknown electicity source*).

Bad times...

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:36 | 930821 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Poor people can't buy food. Not that they 'can't afford it"; they can't buy it period. Zero money. Of the 104 million children under 5 who die each year, over half die of protein energy malnutrition. Not enough food, too much leaves and dirt in their swollen little bellies. Lots of numbers tossed around, but only one really matters - 52+ million children die every year because they don't get enough to eat. And Lord knows how many hundreds of millions are crippled for life by chronic PEM. Talk about a holocaust. That's a lot of little bodies lying at Bernanke's feet. This man is literally a monster.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:37 | 930827 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Maybe communism isn't so bad.

If you can make up the economic numbers so they are perfect then everybody is happy. Looking good is always better than feeling good. Why should they get people upset over nothing? Never give people news that might make people unhappy. That is the key to Utopian Mysticism and why it is so successful.....

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:59 | 930944 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Some arguments against communism as it has been practiced:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine

North Korea today

Anyhow...

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 11:46 | 930868 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Ghost cities using no energy means the rats can run amuck in them in the dark

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 12:16 | 930899 Ancona
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A radical reduction in power usage is an absolute indicator of something out of whack. If they have cut their usage by half, it stands to reason that manufacturing has either slowed or, in some sectors, stalled.

This is not good.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 17:29 | 932490 Bear
Bear's picture

No ... I think it's Leo's solar panels finally arriving to market.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 12:24 | 931051 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Uh... Yes power consumption grew 1Q09 to 1Q10. There was a depression in early 2009. Consumption picked up into late 2009 and so the growth of consumption to 4Q10 is going to look less. US industrial consumption looks the same way.

Power consumption is still growing. Even if it shrank by 1% yoy, this wouldn't be collapse like

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 12:30 | 931061 chindit13
chindit13's picture

China has both an inflation problem and an internal bureaucratic problem. The Central Bank governor is concerned about the inflation rate (8% and rising) and wants to allow the yuan to appreciate. He is the one behind the reserve rate hikes for the major banks. The CP is willing to tolerate inflation so long as employment stays strong. The Central Bank is more concerned about rising food prices and potential riots (there is a report written by Chinese economists that has been circulated amongst various investment banks and officials in Asia. I have read it, but could not retain a copy. Perhaps TD can obtain it).

Recently the government opened its emergency food stores in order to attempt to hold down prices. Some areas of China (Shanghai) have seen staples rise 50-100% year on year. I read one estimate that a half a billion people in China now pay 50%+ of their pay just for food. In the US, food represents about 8-10% of total household expenditures. In China, food represents a much larger percent of the typical consumer basket of goods, no matter what deceptive changes the government might wish to make. Thus food price inflation has a significantly greater impact on the Chinese (and Egyptians, Tunisians, Indians, Pakistanis, etc.) than it does the US public.

Bernanke's inflationary view is parochial and geared toward the US consumer, and even then it is understated. In Ben's World, the world can starve and governments friendly and unfriendly can tumble, just so long as the summer season in the Hamptons is robust.  Bozo.

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:26 | 931381 Peterpaul
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I recall an article from an Asian newspaper (whether Asian Times or The People's Daily) while in China which stated an investigation into food stocks reserve in a Northeastern Province had found the bureaucrats kept the same pile in the warehouse and only "bought" the reserves on paper - an investigation revealed the stocks were years old and rotted.

This may be a localized case or a problem that has been amended, but if this is as widespread as I think it may be China will be in for a suprise when it checks the larder and tries to sell the material...

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 12:29 | 931076 KTV Escort
KTV Escort's picture

When I was in Shenzhen last year a front page article in the China Daily said factory owners in Guangdong Province (southern China) were having a difficult time attracting workers, so were upping wages and benefits. Maybe things have changed in the past 6 months. Electricity is definitely expensive in China compared to rent. Most of my Chinese friends would rather skimp on AC than not have cellphone service. As far as cotton prices rising, not good for the many Chinese women who have small boutiques and clothings shops (I see them everywhere, especially in Shanghai), they'll be hurting.

www.chinapositive.blogspot.com

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 12:31 | 931086 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

All the while they're working to increase their capacity

 

http://westinghousenuclear.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=258

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 12:34 | 931111 6 String
6 String's picture

Shorting base metals seems to be a great hedge against long Silver, perhaps using options to leverage the hedge. Anyone think of some good names to short in the base metals?

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 17:23 | 932456 Bear
Bear's picture

Just sell copper which is now at an all time high, 4.55 as we speak ... beware

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 13:21 | 931354 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

A few FYIs: China electric power comes from coal (70%).  They are the largest coal consumer in the world, even more than the US which gets about 50% of electric power from coal.

China's coal reserves are 110 billion tons and they consume about 3 billion tons a year.  As we know from oil studies, reserves don't matter anywhere near as much as production, and China's coal production is less than its consumption.  They are a huge importer.  Regardless, they have at most about 45 years of coal left, and with Australia getting slammed and a big exporter of coal to China . . . China's power consumption may get pinched.

 

Thu, 02/03/2011 - 14:44 | 931457 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Connect the dots:

* Fed is urging banks to increase credit card limits

* Many high-end retailers now offering big discounts

* Best Buy starts a "buy it back" promo

* Wholesalers seeing 10%-20% price increases for Asian-sourced products

* Baltic Dry cratering

To me these say demand is falling here in the U.S., and Asian suppliers are getting squeezed on margins. China needs to devalue, but they don't dare try it -- yet.

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