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Nikkei Flash Crash - Futures Plummet 16% As All Hell Breaks Loose In Japan
All hell is currently breaking loose following an explosion at reactor #2 and a another hydrogen explosion at reactor #4 per Kyodo, leading to a 16% drop in Nikkei futures as blind panic grips Japan. Kyodo essentially confirms there was a reactor meltdown as radiation levels at Fukushima 3 are now 400 times legal levels. And topping it all Japan's warning that all people within 30 kilometers from Fukushima should stay indoors and that the radioactive winds may reach Tokyo in as little as 8-10 hours. The BOJ has just intervened to prevent the yen from surging, as the following chart shows. Our prayers are with the people of Japan.
Tepco was down 24%, or 500 points, before a circuit breaker was invoked.
We hope our Japanese readers took our advice earlier to evacuate. If not, this is the area that needs to be vacated right now.
The absolutely worst news: NHK saying radiation up to 400mSv at Reactor #3, 100mSv at Reactor #1...That's milli... not micro, or 250 times the maximum reported prior number. Alas, we believe this means the cores have melted.
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Silver just dropped 1.10 or so in like 3 milli seconds.
lock in a great quote!
Tonight, I am Japanese.
fuck.
Nikkie was down 1,255 points when
Nikkie was down 1,255 points when
50 brave men of fukushima
http://dawnwires.com/politics/50-brave-fukushima-workers-stay-back-to-pump-water-while-fully-exposed/
+
<bows head>
plus lots
god bless the brave people still there fighting this
Heroes all....
These men are heros equivilent to the Firemen at Chernobyl and WTC. G-d Bless them and protect them.
This kind of stuff gives me goosebumps. If they were in Wisconsin they would have spent last week getting fucked by politicians. Who steps up to deal with all the cost cutting, decision dodging, spreadsheet cowboy mistakes? Regular fucking guys getting paid by the hour taking a lethal dose to save faceless strangers. Sometimes humans are a-ok in my book.
Spent Fuel Pool Threatened by New Fire at Fukushima Daichi Unit 4, Radiation Exceeds Healthy LevelsTue, Mar 15 2011 12:38 AM
Nuclear Power Industry NewsNuclear Street News Team
A fourth unit at the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Power Plant now threatens to release radiation into the atmosphere, with officials reporting a fire near a spent fuel tank.
Although unit 4 was down for a routine inspection during Friday's magnitude 9 earthquake, backup power outages at the plant left its spent fuel tank without water circulation to remove decay heat. In a press conference, Prime Minister Naoto Kan said the spent fuel may have heated up enough to release hydrogen and start a fire.
The spent fuel stored at unit 3 is now a concern, as well. Naoto said a blast in the building housing that reactor left its spent fuel tank without a cover. Those spent fuel rods also were without a functioning cooling system, he said, and steam has been visible above the reactor building.
Since September, Unit 3 has used MOX fuel, a blend of spent uranium and plutonium sometimes produced by anti-proliferation programs. While the blending leaves makes the plutonium incapable of achieving the super-criticality required for a nuclear explosion, it also creates fuel with a lower melting point and greater toxicity.
The latest fire follows explosions at all three reactors that were in service at the time of the earthquake. Crews have spent the last three days trying to maintain water and pressure levels within the reactors. Reports indicated crews were even using fire trucks to pump seawater and boric acid into the reactors, while periodically venting irradiated steam into the atmosphere to relieve pressure. Cessium and other elements found outside the plant in small amounts this weekend, as well as Tokyo Electric Power Company reports that fuel rods had been exposed to air, led several experts to surmise that fuel rod cladding or the fuel itself has been damaged.
Unfortunately, this is the senario I have been fearing all along -- now you might have TMI (core melt) + fire particulate (dirty bomb) that will take it airborne from the spent fuel.
I am not religious, but I will pray.
They are in some deep shit, Pete.
I am afraid so -- I was always worried about the spent fuel after the second explosion. No control there - now fire.
In reality we all (in the northern hemisphere) will be in some danger if there is a fire and meltdown and large amounts of steam are released it could get carried high into the atmoshphere. Then the jet stream delivers particulate around the globe.
I may be wrong, but my guess is with only 50 guys left there pumping saltwater - dead men - I should mention, the cores will probably dry out and melt onto the basemat. Then, we will see. I think at this point, it is probably better to not put water in them...they are gone, why risk a steam explosion? Before, I was not so worried about the spent rods, because I thought they might save the cores. Now, I am worried. But, if no steam explosion happens, very little risk of anything significant reaching the US. In fact, by now, I think those cores are so dry, even a steam explosion would be so minor it would not be a jetstream event.
"They"??? Wait til that shit starts floating around the world.
WOW...! Nikkei down 1,255 points last I checked.....
Oh Oh...!!!
There goes silver.
God, this just doesn't make any sense.
everyone is buying bonds yen and CHF.
worst still the oil trade is up, japan and china are net importers.
Yen's at 81.55 steady (more or less), dollar just took off, I wouldn't be buying yen, but then I'm not an arbitrager, way over my head.
"There goes silver.
God, this just doesn't make any sense."
--
Why?
Makes perfect sense.
And, no, I'm not being facetious.
Treasuries are the FTQ play, not PMs?
People never learn.
plunge protection team buying /es like crazy. huge volume, and the btfd morons piling in too.
they could both get carried out tonight.
Empathy Bitchez. Please.
+ infinity
Well, so much for that small gap between QE2 and QE3. Looks like Bernanke is going to have to start overlapping now.
On a side note, is this a fear driven over reaction or is it really time to hit the panic button and jump out of a window?
Jump? Pfft, a good trader goes down with the ship.
norishikata Noriyuki SHIKATA
Residents staying in the radius of 20 km and 30 km from Fukushima Daiichi are requested to stay insede the houses or buildings. (Tweet)I think Robert Prechter would call this the begining of 3rd of C wave selling. If you want to know how it ends, take a look at the chart of Citi bank.
Seriously, it's the Nikkei now, but close your eyes and picture this. 60 days from now the Yen is at 120, JGB yields are over 3.5% and headed north with a 2%+ risk premium. It's dawning on people that JGB's are going to have to take haircuts, that news begins to wash across the balance sheets of hedge funds, banks, and insurance companeis worldwide.
Keep your eye on Bahrain and Yemen. It's getting fugly there, too.
Wouldn't a staggering economy in the face of a collapsing Japanese financial system, collapsing European financial system and $175 oil really put a stake in the heart of the financial markets, regardless of the liquidity being provided? At that point of recognition, we're going to see massive flight from emerging markets, liquidation of commodities across the board, huge flight to the dollar and this kind of selling in every equity market in the world. Get short, and then, before it gets too bad, get liquid and I mean cash and PM's in hand. It ain't gong to be pretty.
ES took out 1,260. Next technical resistance at 1,210.
I'm going to go ahead and say....yes. UnicornDew fuel was already running very low on this US rally. And since central planning brought us here, I am confident that central planning will not deliver us out of here.
As we have been saying for months here on the best financial website on the interwebz machine...none of this ends well.
Bernanke ain't got no cement, bitchez!
I think it's our third largest trading partner. They still have a couple of 8's to expect and even more 7's. cool people...educated it's really like multiple tragedies at the same time.
lock limit down somewhere around 1230 on the /es.
Aside from rebuilding the infrastructure, that wave wiped out half of the farmland in the north. They are going to have to be a net importer of rice. It will be food first. That's a big domino.
http://my.firedoglake.com/scarecrow/2011/03/14/japan-nuclear-watch-minis...
live stream
If this is true, how come I'm the only bid in CBOT rough rice? Been buying all day and they are just giving it to me easy as pie. Makes me queasy.
"Half the farmland"? I doubt it -- only areas within a few kilometers of the coast were flooded.
Can anyone explain why the Nikkei was even allowed to open on Monday?
I am as free market as it gets (normally) - but there is no way I would have even allowed the Japanese market to open on Monday. I would have shut it down for a minimum of one week while we calmly assessed the situation. Japan was hit with a black swan issue - there was no risk of setting a bad precedent if they would have shut the market down.
Why didn't they?
http://market-ticker.org/
Denninger did a wonderful blogtalk radio show on nuclear energy. It's highly informative, and I recommend everyone listen to it.
Right side of the page.
I am getting an education on nuclear power right now. And, right now its not looking so good.
those reactors are like our World Trade Centers...
I don't like being right...and like man zero hedgers...I couldn't understand why the hell stocks have been holding at these levels. Now we know that all that complacency was giving even the dumbest hedge fund the opportunity to short.
This probably means all the key markets will take a huge hit now, but that's what happens when markets forget risk AGAIN!
Tyler, I agree that prayer is what's called for now.
those reactors are like our World Trade Centers...
I don't like being right...and like man zero hedgers...I couldn't understand why the hell stocks have been holding at these levels. Now we know that all that complacency was giving even the dumbest hedge fund the opportunity to short.
This probably means all the key markets will take a huge hit now, but that's what happens when markets forget risk AGAIN!
Tyler, I agree that prayer is what's called for now.
Spent Fuel Pool Threatened by New Fire at Fukushima Daichi Unit 4, Radiation Exceeds Healthy LevelsTue, Mar 15 2011 12:38 AM
http://nuclearstreet.com/nuclear_power_industry_news/b/nuclear_power_new...
FIRE
CNBC is live now...trotted out an analyst to make it seem like spilled milk and we shouldnt worry...
I ran over to the gym across the street for a quick run and everyone was watching sprots, sitcoms, or celebrity news. No one interested in reality.
They may be in for a rude awakening.
At an attempt at humor and to stop myself from crying:
Did you try to sell them some silver rounds?
Pompei was likely no different.
Did your treadmill run assist you in preparing for the imminent fallout of a radiation meltdown? Or perhaps you were distracting yourself like everyone else?
Its seems clear now that spent nuclear fuel rods are burning in the Reactor 4 spent fuel pool, which dried out, or dried out enough to allow the temps of the exposed rods to catch fire. Could not be worse since the pool is longer covered by any building.
Reactor #4 is still covered with the tin hat, #1 and #3 had the lid removed, might be a hole or two in the tin from #3 explosion debris.
If all the news channels aren't reporting more or the exact same thing, that's kind of a big deal. Japanese news outlets usually report what they're told, just like in the US.
trav777, antisoshal, Aristarchan et al,
What are the risks from the pool of spent fuel, given that continual cooling seems to be a challenge right now? Educate and inform.
Container is located in fuel pool - it is NOT in the containment -- it is above it and since there is no roof on the bldg (blown off) and now is reported to be on fire...
very bad
I sure hope Trev777 doesnt post tomorrow.
Beware the ides of March
FIre confirmed!
Japanese Earthquake Update (15 March 06:15 CET)
15 March 2011
Announcements, Featured
Japanese authorities informed the IAEA that there has been an explosion at the Unit 2 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. The explosion occurred at around 06:20 on 15 March local Japan time.
Japanese authorities also today informed the IAEA at 04:50 CET that the spent fuel storage pond at the Unit 4 reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is on fire and radioactivity is being released directly into the atmosphere.
Dose rates of up to 400 millisievert per hour have been reported at the site. Japanese authorities are saying that there is a possibility that the fire was caused by a hydrogen explosion.
The IAEA is seeking further information on these developments.
"nuclear power plant is on fire and radioactivity is being released directly into the atmosphere."
This is definitely not good. Anyone has any guesses how long before this reaches any neighboring countries?
The Nikkei is up 600 in afternoon trading.
Radiation has reached Tokyo
Uncontroled meltown has been confirmed
How do we spin this as positive?
See post above you.
No thank you.
My contacts are telling me the water table will be reached in several hours
Tokyo = fucked
I kept telling people at the Globe and Mail that this meltdown was impossible. My opinion changed nothing. Maybe 25 years from now we will be running thorium reactors. Try to convince people they are safe.
I never got a chance to visit. I would have loved it.
Turns out its all good. No need to be concerned - Fission Criticality In Cooling Ponds Threaten Explosion At Fukushima The threat of a fission explosion at the Fukushima power facility emerged today when the roof of the number three reactor exploded and fears that a spent fuel pool, located over the reactor, has been compromised.The pool, designed to allow reactor fuel to cool off for several years, was constructed on top of the Fukushima reactors instead of underground. As of 2010, there were 3450 fuel assemblies in the pool at the number three reactor. The destruction of the number three reactor building has experts concerned about whether the spent fuel storage pool, which sits just below the roof, could have survived intact the hydrogen explosion. The explosion was much more severe than Saturday’s blast at the number one reactor. http://dcbureau.org/201103141303/Natural-Resources-News-Service/fission-...
Quote on BBC live stream: " Jeffrey Lilly, from Kawanehon, Japan, writes: "We're about 300 miles in a straight line from the Fukushima nuclear plants. My junior high school operates as normal, and kids at the elementary school next door play outside as I write this. No mention of the nuclear crisis whatsoever from any town officials. If not for the news I'd never know there was a problem. "
Unbelievable.
divergent fractal
Folks if there is a massive steam release into the atmosphere this could potentially become our problem HERE in the North US as well.
How?... fire starts spent fuel into a reaction and melts down past the contaiment (along side) to the suppression pool below, this might actually cause a massive steam plume, like a volcano -- this is possible worst case senario (really.) -- can steam and particulate blow off that high?
Jet stream is 5-7 miles up, I beleive.
Anyone know what the web site is for live Rad monitoring sensor sites, seriously.
Live Radiation Monitoring Sites. Best I've found so far.
http://www.radiationnetwork.com/RadiationNetwork.htm
Did you see the link to Japan at the bottom?
http://www.radiationnetwork.com/Japan.htm
Either I have no clue how to read this map, or they don't show any problem. Do you see any indication of a problem at the plant on this map? Ideas?
The maps of Japan have no reporting stations. There are official Japanese stations mentioned in links elsewhere, reporting in nanoGrays (nGy).
The maps of the US from the site you linked are reporting counts per minute (CPM). Approximately 120 CPM = 1 uSv.
If the US sites were in Japan, the "hottest" ones based on the data from ealier would be reporting numbers of around 500 CPM.
REPORTS THAT THE FIRE HAS BEEN PUT OUT! Fuel is NOT causing fire -- Fuel is NOT causing fire according to Noriyuki Shikata
Fire put out at unit 4
Kan's spokesman Noriyuki Shikata said that there had been "a sign of leakage" while firefighters were at work, "but we have found out the fuel is not causing the fire." The fire is now reported extinguished.
SIGH!!!!
Those reports are false.
I have a solid contact reporting the exact opposite.
F! Fire is burning still? Is it the fuel? what is the news source?
KeeeRiceSt I hate this conflicting information.
It's burning...it's a solid source.
I don't disseminate misinformation; never have
If these guys at the plant live, they should receive a Heros Parade.
CP - this has moved to the surreal. Unit 4 SFP on fire? Really? WTF is burning? Maybe its SFP water boiling off? Not sure when they last loaded fuel into the pool or how full the pool is...they were s/d during quake/tsunami...they may have recently offloaded into the SFP...which would greatly increase heatload and reduce time to boil down to a few days...which possibly makes sense here.
www.nei.org reporting that Unit 4 has no fuel in the Rx...its all in the SFP...which is what I suspected above...c'mon, someone at least get water in the pool. They're gonna take some dose to do it though. What an unmitigated nightmare.
I wonder if there is some sort of breech in the pool (leaking). When I saw the second explosion, the first thing I said to my self was -- "shit, the spent fuel pool" -- but that was units 1 and 3 that blew up. This is unit 4 that was/is reported to be on fire.
I probably have a really old GA from E.I.Hatch somewhere in a box in the basement - I should go and find it. I don't have any P&IDs from a BWR here.
Japanese authorities also today informed the IAEA at 04:50 CET that the spent fuel storage pond at the Unit 4 reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is on fire and radioactivity is being released directly into the atmosphere.
I have read reports that the fire was contained -- but if you see the posts below that is questionable.
Link to IAEA page:
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html
So does that mean tomorrow you renouce the 'evil' grid and go self powered.
At expense & inconvenience.
Seriously, who goes first and starts biking to work & store, starts using LED lights, no refrigeration, no or little oil/gas/electric heat, no getting on the big bird for vacations to summerly warm spots or fun ski slopes etc,etc.
Once wicked oil and nuclear get removed from the equation there aren't many viable options. I'm all ears for those that offer alternatives...such as?
And if you say wind & solar, be prepared to detail how you lived on them for a couple years and still think they're a sure fire option for all to embrace.
Walk the walk please.... before you talk the talk.
I've heard that the wind turbines cause headaches with the noise they generate. Its a resonance they set up and you cannot live near them. No wonder T. Boone Picken's owns so much empty land (except for that aquifer water underneath) in Texas.
Fresh water is the next big item people will somehow commoditize and sell but there's an issue between fresh water and solar.
President Obama gave the go ahead for a huge solar farm in California near the Mojave Valley. This solar farm needs WATER for STEAM to power the turbines. Where do you get the water? Colorado River. Who do you take it from? Las Vegas, NV, Phoenix, AZ, Colorado, Utah, and California - the 5 states who signed the Water Pact and don't forget the native american tribes. They're SOL...again.
Wind power is too expensive per kilowatt, kills birds, and annoys humans.
Future nuclear power plants will produce cheap power. We have current hydro dam electric power and a kilowatthour costs 3 cents wholesale and 6 cents retail.
Yes, this is what you will do eventually. Re-localize. It is the best way to ride out the approaching storm. Get used to it, change as much as you can so that when the change is forced upon you it is not so shocking.
High gas prices meet...... Moped, Bitchez!
Get a generator and make own ethanol for fuel (serious). But don't drink it first and then drive.... I'm told it's really embarrasing to get pulled over on a moped. Use the generator when the wind don't blow, and the sun don't shine, and you don't feel like chopping firewood.
Cars used to run on both ethanol and gasoline before Rockefeller paid $200 million (equivalent) to get prohibition passed so people couldn't make their own fuel. Now people want it but forgot how to make it.
If you still don't think you can cope just buy the movie "Jeremiah Johnson" and watch it about 20 times for inspiration.
well, gold is down, which tells us either bernanke/timmy geithner are working through their darkpool partners GS - or - japan is selling to raise capital - or - others are selling to raise capital since they know the house of cards that bernanke/geithner (let's throw Paulson, Rubin and Greenspan in there too) built.
remember people - the dollar bill you are using to buy groceries with is basically a payable now bond. its price is based on interest rates. Japan is the second largest holder of US bonds and both Japan and the USA need money now (from a previous zero hedge article it looks like geithner is living day to day since the next bond auction is next week and the treasury is out of money - tomorrow or the next day).
Who(?) on the planet has the money to continue buying our bonds to finance our way of life?
PM's will sell off to raise capital for central banks or to BTFD.
Markets will bounce but not as fast as PM's.
Saudi military in Bahrain; the Sunni / Shiite war is almost full on; second level is end of monarchies and rise of dictators/social democracies. Either one is instability 2X.
Hey, Cramer says everything is great, buy CAT.
I say...bong hit and:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fc0uQXxkOcg&feature=related
Agreed, now pass the bong...bogart!
The Magical Mystery Bernanke will do it - just whistle up another trillion dollars and, presto!, we're all back in the BTFD business, I guess.
Those lucky Japanese! Now they can REALLY buy the fucking dip!
Idiot---you can buy it, too.
I bought your mom, she wasn't worth the 2 bits I gave her! Asshole!
Futures are going to plunge...
dow was down 300....now 200
You nailed that.
http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/nikkei-225-set-for-worst-two-da...
Poop, meet fan...I hope to goodness when I wake up in the morning that this was all just a bit of un-necessary panic on everyone's part...but I'm not confident of that outcome. First off, the destruction in Japan is clearly larger than (a) anyone really knows and (b) is almost certainly larger than the money men were planning on over the weekend. If Japan's nuclear plants really are getting out of control then we have the problem of a major wealth-generator in the global economy being at least temporarily shut down...and that is a hole which can't be filled.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeGZLcRT6Dc
Confirmation that radiation is now measurable in Tokyo (from the fire?)
NHK World is reporting the fire has been put down.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/15_33.html
bob_dabolina ??? What you got? same?
Really excited to be having a new baby in a day or so. Good times.
Boy or girl... name?
Evan
Japan losing control of nuclear crisis: Japan appears to be losing control of its nuclear crisis after fresh ... http://on.ft.com/gwEaMI
Anyone remember their FT password -- to see if this is an echo report or some fresh data?
Clusterflock. Bahrain is getting dicey now, too.
Gulf states send troops to Bahrain - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
I said in another thread that things had not yet gone all to hell, and it was not yet time to panic.
Things have now definitely gone all to hell, and if those sorts of doses spread much beyond the plant than it is officially time to panic. Now we're talking levels a couple hundred times higher.
We're still not talking about a Chernobyl sized mess, though.
Legal dosage levels are really irrelevant - but these levels of radiation in the immediate vicinity of the reactor means some no-shit radiation. It's not immediately harmful, let alone immediately lethal, but anyone working on the reactor itself is going to have a severe time limit. It would not surprise me if they were giving people 5-10 minute shifts.
AUD and Australian house prices crashing too.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/executive-lifestyle/no-shore-thing/...
Lucky me I have about 10K of FXA with a standing 3% trailing stop loss in place. So I reckon that will execute tomorrow.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-chiba
1.67
1.44 (3:24)
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201103/r734244_5947624.jpg
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201103/r734034_5944801.jpg
Godzilla is so pissed right now.
which banks are holding japanese paper?
The insolvent TBTF mark-to-fantasy banks.
Sleep for me.
reports of >1000 mSv at the site
C'est trop tard.
Haven't read every comment so I apologize this has been cited/linked already:
Japan Earthquake Update (15 March 2011, 03:35 CET)Japanese authorities yesterday reported to the IAEA at 21:05 CET that the reactors Units 1, 2 and 3 of the Fukushima Daini nuclear power plant are in cold shutdown status. This means that the pressure of the water coolant is at around atmospheric level and the temperature is below 100 degrees Celsius. Under these conditions, the reactors are considered to be safely under control.
Japanese authorities have also informed the IAEA that teams of experts from Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), the plant´s operator, are working to restore cooling in the reactor Unit 4 and bring it to cold shutdown.
The IAEA continues to liaise with the Japanese authorities and is monitoring the situation as it evolves.
Link:
IAEA Update on Japan Earthquake
UPDATE:
Japan Earthquake Update (15 March 2011, 06:15 CET)Japanese authorities informed the IAEA that there has been an explosion at the Unit 2 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. The explosion occurred at around 06:20 on 15 March local Japan time.
Japanese authorities also today informed the IAEA at 04:50 CET that the spent fuel storage pond at the Unit 4 reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is on fire and radioactivity is being released directly into the atmosphere.
Dose rates of up to 400 millisievert per hour have been reported at the site. The Japanese authorities are saying that there is a possibility that the fire was caused by a hydrogen explosion.
Japanese government to buy stocks directly: Yosano
http://dawnwires.com/investment-news/japanese-government-to-buy-stocks-t...
Yeah, buy the smoking shit.
Turns out there are used fuel rods stored in the Reactors 1, 2, 3, 4. In Reactor 4...
In the Reactor No.4, the used fuel rods were stored in a storage pool. However, as the power went out and water stopped circulating, the residual heat from the used fuel rods raised the temperature of the pool from the normal 40-degree Celsius to 85-degree Celsius, causing the water level to drop. The used fuel rods were exposed, reacted with steam, producing hydrogen, which led to an explosive fire.
In the Reactor No.4, there are 783 used fuel rods in the pool. 300 to 500 used fuel rods are also stored in the Reactors No.1, 2, and 3.
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/03/fukushima-nuke-plant-very-high.html
More actual happennings to support aggregate forectasting of indices and commodities. No one can predict the constituting zilion parts of what may cause stock market crash, but the crash itself ( now I talk about DJIA, not Nikkei) is predictable to a certain extent, based on its internal dynamics , as Sornette et al have shown.So:
There will be no devaluation of USD for at least 2 years. Hence, Stock market will crash. However, oil prices will move higher- and that is one of the reasons why stock market will eventually crash as second recession will be evident in coming in H2 2011 and in numbers in Q1 2012.
The DJIA graph I made on February 6th has accurately predicted not even market top at February 18th but even todays ( will it be11800?) DJIA value. That is about 1,5 month correct trend prediction in time and price, not bad. Also Oil graph is corrrect at predicting Oil prices peak in the end of February, drop in middle March before going up again towards April.
http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2608
http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2609
May be even silver graph is correct- the up to 50% correction comes in end of March-Early April. May be because all plants using silver in production will be closed, or Japan will start selling gold reserves to pay for nuclear disaster. OR some other factor-money will flow to oil as vital scarce resource instead of gold as protection against inflation- which will not come as high as expected, at least no in 2011-2012.
http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2673
Ivars, you keep mentioning Sornette. Are you using his log-periodic series to get your graphs? Could you explain how you are getting your curves for the Dow? It's annoying when people just give their predictions without giving an idea of how they came up with the prediction. I, for one, get tired of "trust me, there's solid logic behind this". Lay it out for us. What do you have to lose? No disrespect intended.
Now a FOURTH explosion at Fukushima plant, radiation is now definitely leaking to higher levels. They have now admitted a serious leak.
Edano says: There is a problem with Reactor 5 and 6
http://dawnwires.com/politics/reactor-5-and-6-going-out-of-control-risk-of-radiation-meltdown/
Buy the Fukin Dip just turned into Bite the fukin Dust
Is there an ETF for that or just CDOs/CDS?
Posted on blog Nov 2010 and Jan 2011:
The major correction in 2007/2008 was predicted by some market analysts including myself.
It was not a ‘Black Swan’ event that suddenly appeared out of nowhere.
The charts made it very clear back then what was ahead and they are doing so again.
My long term charts warn of another black swan market crash that 'nobody could have predicted‘
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
My astrologer is in agreement with your charts... and my crystal ball backed up my astrologers call...
Thanks for your tech confirmation...
I am now long black swans... short all else.
Wow....I had been in a post a few down saying those radiation levels, if true, were harmless....
these are not, 40R/hr field....yikes.
my heart goes out to the people there.
see how world fin system is FUCKED..
here's black swan.. in normal times FED/ECB/Japam_fin_min would just lowered
short rate by 1-2-3 %, and market would just shrug off situation in Japan..
now.. they are FUCKED-COOKED-DONE!! NO AMMO LEFT..
only tool left is PRINT MONEY AND DROP FROM HELICOPTERS. .along with basic stuff like food, drugs etc..
world is doomed..
alx
So whats the downside?
At this point, you don't need downside anymore.
The 'world' is not doomed... Humans, on the other hand, might be...
You might try the phrase 'the world as we know it is doomed'... and, it might be.
OTOH, the world as those people living in 1700, 1800, 1900 knew it was doomed... invention/innovation was in the future of all of them...yet, none could return to the 'good ol days'... just as we cannot put the nuke genie back in the way back machine and disappear it.
Stuff happens, we deal with it or perish as a species... Either way, it does not mean the 'world is doomed'...
No shelter, food, water, air.
"Prayer and fasting can stop wars, suspend the laws of nature." olqp
"If you do not change, fire will rain from the sky." OL of Akita
An unusual nature of the apparitions was that unlike other case, since the entire nation of Japan was able to view the tears of the statue of the on Virgin Mary on national television.[5]
http://www.visionsofjesuschrist.com/weeping8.htm
God save Japan
I can understand that the ‘bean counters’ wanted the reactors built at sea level because the expense of lifting each ton of cooling water through each metre of height would cost $0.0x cents, multiplied by the forty year life span of the plant, but couldn’t they have at least put the backup diesel generators on 20-30 metre towers, to be above any realistic tsunami? Or even built a fresh water dam on raised land above the project, even if it was kilometres away, so that they could have a gravity fed emergency cooling system which would last the critical two weeks or so? I just finished working on an Australian gold mine where they built the primary crusher unit, perhaps eight stories high and weighing 8000 tonnes on an alluvial river bed, with no piling down to the solid rock beneath as it would have cost too much. Now the whole structure is leaning over and has to be replaced, at a cost of probably thirty million dollars. When bean counters meet engineers, it seems the bean counters rule every time.
But in the reactor situation, built on a small island like Japan, with the whole fate of the nation resting on the plants successful operation, to be defeated by a ten metre wall of water appears to be a woeful and avoidable calamity.
They need 20 chinook helicopers to air drop dirt and lead 24-7 and bury the whole dam thing...
Today we get to find out if the Feds POMO embalming has created total rigamortis of the market.
We are just luckier than Japan, for now. No one has true control. Pray for our brothers and sisters in Japan.
don't worry, machine working for you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvFRGyV-blQ
People get together,anyone who cares about basic problem of our existance FED invited to vote in our poll and read out latest comments on yahoo FED article about QE3:
http://trendybull777.blog.com/2011/02/21/hello-world/
Voting poll is waiting for you click,take 5sec to make your choice,we must to reach critical level to be recognised by others to tove too!Thank you and keep all us together regardless government effords,we appreciate if you link us to other polls,blogs,sites to let people or your friiends to vote FED existence
People get together,anyone who cares about basic problem of our existance FED invited to vote in our poll and read out latest comments on yahoo FED article about QE3:
http://trendybull777.blog.com/2011/02/21/hello-world/
Voting poll is waiting for you click,take 5sec to make your choice,we must to reach critical level to be recognised by others to tove too!Thank you and keep all us together regardless government effords,we appreciate if you link us to other polls,blogs,sites to let people or your friiends to vote FED existence
People get together,anyone who cares about basic problem of our existance FED invited to vote in our poll and read out latest comments on yahoo FED article about QE3:
http://trendybull777.blog.com/2011/02/21/hello-world/
Voting poll is waiting for you click,take 5sec to make your choice,we must to reach critical level to be recognised by others to tove too!Thank you and keep all us together regardless government effords,we appreciate if you link us to other polls,blogs,sites to let people or your friiends to vote FED existence