Nine States Did Not File Initial Claims Data Due To Labor Day, Hundreds Of Thousands Of Estimates In Data "Beat"

Tyler Durden's picture

The BLS has announced that as a result of the Labor Day weekend, 9 states (among which the biggest one California) did not report initial claims data to the bean counters, so instead the government had to "estimate" what the data would have been: yep, estimate, what the data was in these nine states. From Bloomberg: "For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day holiday earlier this week, a department official told reporters. California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven." Official data is now made up on the fly. This US economic data reporting has just entered the twilight zone. Also, when the data is officially made up, it is not that difficult to get data that is "better than expected." The full list of states is: DC, Illinois, Idaho, Hawaii, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Washington. California and Virginia estimated themselves.

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SpeakerFTD's picture

Welcome to Potemkin Village, USA!

French Frog's picture

what is happening to america?

goldfish1's picture

what is happening to america?

The fukktard globalists are implementing their program to take over the world. America was a big nut to crack, but by jove, they've done it.

Rainman's picture

HAHA......CA numbers alone would blow up the data.

This is just another reason to love ZH......always suspicious of numbers generated by the regime.....and usually right on target. Kudos.

NoBull1994's picture

I'm sure this will be thoroughly covered on CNBC.

bigkahuna's picture

Drudge Report has linked this article...

spekulatn's picture

Servers being tested. Drudge traffic bitchez.

redpill's picture

Damnit ZH is gonna be slow all day now

Dirtt's picture

What a trip.  Opened DR and ZH in their own windows and there was ZH in the DR tab.

Mark this day down in the history books.  Convergence of the Godfather of New Financial Media and THE GODFATHER of New Media.

Looks like the DOJ finally has a RICO investigation that meets their criteria.

GIANTKILR's picture

Drop the "L" in BLS!

smartknowledgeu's picture

actually we should keep the "L" as long as people understand that the "L" stands for Lies...

VFR's picture

Statistics are like bikinis.  What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.  ~Aaron Levenstein

Running on Empty's picture

BLS Bullshit Lies and Stories .

bigdumbnugly's picture

so... business as usual then.

bigdumbnugly's picture

btw, is it ok with everyone if i likewise estimate my data to the irs this april?  it'll all be on the up and up.   i promise.

themosmitsos's picture

NEW level of hypocricy!



Spalding_Smailes's picture

Don't fight the fed ...

Sudden Debt's picture

HAHAHA, no filling mean they have 0 extra claims :)

I love it when the system works :)

NOTW777's picture

lying begets lying

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Well, if you're going to estimate, it's better to error on the "conservative" side, right? Where's Rod Serling when we really need him?

Cue the music.

Number 156's picture

Fake, manufactured Data, right on cue. They couldnt skew anything here too far, because the ADP reports will contrast too much. Could it be that its so much worse than we know?

"There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area we call the Twilight Zone."
jc125d's picture

Oh. 41 states worse than expected, and the missing 9 boom to the upside. My bullshit detector lock limit up. WTF, those DOL economists are so smart, must have PhD's.

firstdivision's picture

So Uncle Ben convinced them to not file and claim it was due to holiday to goose the numbers?  Not surprising, I would even venture a guess that they said CA added jobs and did not lose one single job.

Racer's picture

What a complete and utter scam this market is, anyone who trades/invests in this CON wants their head examined!

Ragnarok's picture

New policy: Shoot the messenger before he opens his mouth.  Problem solved.

yabs's picture

please someone unplug me

I have had enough of the matrix

CashCowEquity's picture

the US govt has gone Full Retard

Slewburger's picture

Everybody knows you never go full retard.

Gimp's picture

Who believes these numbers anyway. I know three people who were laid-off from jobs in the past week.

alexwest's picture

distortions ,,yep was right in prev comment..


yabs's picture

stocks surge on made up better than expected results


i thought when confidsence is lost the market goes down

how can anyone trust these figures

Racer's picture

Dot com springs to mind!

TheGreatPonzi's picture

Don't underestimate the perversity and dishonesty of the US gov.

I'm quite sure Banana Ben makes up "better-than-expected" stats, and then buys himself the stocks via hidden QE to push the market up.

Why not? FED is never audited.

EscapeKey's picture

From the perspective of the BLS, 9 states not reporting in time WAS better than expected!

papaswamp's picture

Wrong link are linking to the trade deficit...employment article is:

SheepDog-One's picture

This has gone full-on retard theyre just 'not tellin'? 

JimboJammer's picture

Washington  D. C.  is  out  of  control..  back  in  1962  J F K  was  the

President...  Things  were  good ,  much  more  Honest..   Now  we 

have  a  Bananna  Republic ..   Ross  Perot  said ;   NAFTA  will  ship

too  many  jobs  out  of  the  USA ...  he  was  right...

check  out  Ross  Perot   on  >>  youtube.

alien-IQ's picture

the hilarity never ends. this should make for quite and interesting 'revision" next week...stay tuned.

NotApplicable's picture

Yes, but now everyone will be expecting a big revision, so when it happens they will report that it "meets expectations" so everything will be ok. TADA!

lizzy36's picture

Ironically California was one of two states with a decrease (californaia the largest) of more than 1000 initial claims.





State Supplied Comment




Fewer layoffs in the service industry.


firstdivision's picture

How did CA not report but were able to comment on a number?

lizzy36's picture

Oh CA reported, they just made the report up.  Same as the comment - made up.

One looks at the employment component of the Non Manufacturing ISM (sub 50) and thinks "fewer layoffs in the services sector" was indeed made up by a California public employee with a sense of humor (and probably subject to being furloughed without pay)

jomama's picture

maybe they heard that one about 92% of statistics are made up on the spot, and thought they would lighten the abysmal reality with some ad hoc humor?

Sancho Ponzi's picture

There will be a propaganda blitzkrieg until the Nov elections. Bad news will be buried, stats will be cooked, and Keynesians will appear everywhere, spewing their drivel. Did anyone else notice the +$2 bln inflow into SPY on Tuesday, suspiciously coinciding with the $33 bln sale of 3 year notes?

Quantum Nucleonics's picture

The state specific data that they actually publish is for the prior week.  I don't think they break out the estimate for the current week number.

nopat's picture

Thank god you're here to be lizzy-on-the-spot with the data, I was growing frustrated at the amplitude and frequency of Matrix quotes and calls for "this is bullshit".  Not that it isn't, just don't call it that without making at leas the effort to look at the data.

Of the 9 states that estimated their claims, only Hawaii showed an increase +235, with the net change of the group being (-7,821) and CA/IL leading that pack with (-4,127) and (-2,114), respectively.  The latest trade data showed some strong export data in industries that are located in these states, perhaps related to the financing arms of these operations?  Don't know.  You do see federal extended benefits jump +64k.

At some point you have to see the rate decrease.  That's not necessarily a good thing, because at some point you're going to run out of labor to lay off.  The thing that worries me is people are relying on statistics based on prior historical.  Not saying "this time is different", but, it's been a very long time since we've seen such a fracture and dramatic shift in all markets.  Like [fill in the blank], our models don't go back that far.

Well, not worry.  You know me, I'm short as fuck in this game, and have the ability to be patient.