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Nine States Did Not File Initial Claims Data Due To Labor Day, Hundreds Of Thousands Of Estimates In Data "Beat"
The BLS has announced that as a result of the Labor Day weekend, 9 states (among which the biggest one California) did not report initial claims data to the bean counters, so instead the government had to "estimate" what the data would have been: yep, estimate, what the data was in these nine states. From Bloomberg: "For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the Labor Day holiday earlier this week, a department official told reporters. California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven." Official data is now made up on the fly. This US economic data reporting has just entered the twilight zone. Also, when the data is officially made up, it is not that difficult to get data that is "better than expected." The full list of states is: DC, Illinois, Idaho, Hawaii, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Washington. California and Virginia estimated themselves.
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Welcome to Potemkin Village, USA!
what is happening to america?
what is happening to america?
The fukktard globalists are implementing their program to take over the world. America was a big nut to crack, but by jove, they've done it.
HAHA......CA numbers alone would blow up the data.
This is just another reason to love ZH......always suspicious of numbers generated by the regime.....and usually right on target. Kudos.
I'm sure this will be thoroughly covered on CNBC.
Covered
Drudge Report has linked this article...
Servers being tested. Drudge traffic bitchez.
Damnit ZH is gonna be slow all day now
What a trip. Opened DR and ZH in their own windows and there was ZH in the DR tab.
Mark this day down in the history books. Convergence of the Godfather of New Financial Media and THE GODFATHER of New Media.
Looks like the DOJ finally has a RICO investigation that meets their criteria.
Drop the "L" in BLS!
actually we should keep the "L" as long as people understand that the "L" stands for Lies...
Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. ~Aaron Levenstein
Quote of the day!
+1000 I love it!
BLS Bullshit Lies and Stories .
so... business as usual then.
btw, is it ok with everyone if i likewise estimate my data to the irs this april? it'll all be on the up and up. i promise.
NEW level of hypocricy!
Just
WOW!
Don't fight the fed ...
Astounding
HAHAHA, no filling mean they have 0 extra claims :)
I love it when the system works :)
lying begets lying
Well, if you're going to estimate, it's better to error on the "conservative" side, right? Where's Rod Serling when we really need him?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rod_Serling
Cue the music.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzlG28B-R8Y
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Twilight_Zone_(1959_TV_series)
Fake, manufactured Data, right on cue. They couldnt skew anything here too far, because the ADP reports will contrast too much. Could it be that its so much worse than we know?
Oh. 41 states worse than expected, and the missing 9 boom to the upside. My bullshit detector lock limit up. WTF, those DOL economists are so smart, must have PhD's.
So Uncle Ben convinced them to not file and claim it was due to holiday to goose the numbers? Not surprising, I would even venture a guess that they said CA added jobs and did not lose one single job.
What a complete and utter scam this market is, anyone who trades/invests in this CON wants their head examined!
New policy: Shoot the messenger before he opens his mouth. Problem solved.
please someone unplug me
I have had enough of the matrix
the US govt has gone Full Retard
Everybody knows you never go full retard.
Who believes these numbers anyway. I know three people who were laid-off from jobs in the past week.
distortions ,,yep was right in prev comment..
alex
stocks surge on made up better than expected results
unbelievable
i thought when confidsence is lost the market goes down
how can anyone trust these figures
Dot com springs to mind!
Don't underestimate the perversity and dishonesty of the US gov.
I'm quite sure Banana Ben makes up "better-than-expected" stats, and then buys himself the stocks via hidden QE to push the market up.
Why not? FED is never audited.
From the perspective of the BLS, 9 states not reporting in time WAS better than expected!
Wrong link Tyler...you are linking to the trade deficit...employment article is:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-09/jobless-claims-in-u-s-decreased...
This has gone full-on retard mode....now theyre just 'not tellin'?
Washington D. C. is out of control.. back in 1962 J F K was the
President... Things were good , much more Honest.. Now we
have a Bananna Republic .. Ross Perot said ; NAFTA will ship
too many jobs out of the USA ... he was right...
check out Ross Perot on >> youtube.
the hilarity never ends. this should make for quite and interesting 'revision" next week...stay tuned.
Yes, but now everyone will be expecting a big revision, so when it happens they will report that it "meets expectations" so everything will be ok. TADA!
Ironically California was one of two states with a decrease (californaia the largest) of more than 1000 initial claims.
Goebbelsesque
State
Change
State Supplied Comment
CA
-4,127
Fewer layoffs in the service industry.
.
How did CA not report but were able to comment on a number?
Oh CA reported, they just made the report up. Same as the comment - made up.
One looks at the employment component of the Non Manufacturing ISM (sub 50) and thinks "fewer layoffs in the services sector" was indeed made up by a California public employee with a sense of humor (and probably subject to being furloughed without pay)
maybe they heard that one about 92% of statistics are made up on the spot, and thought they would lighten the abysmal reality with some ad hoc humor?
There will be a propaganda blitzkrieg until the Nov elections. Bad news will be buried, stats will be cooked, and Keynesians will appear everywhere, spewing their drivel. Did anyone else notice the +$2 bln inflow into SPY on Tuesday, suspiciously coinciding with the $33 bln sale of 3 year notes?
The state specific data that they actually publish is for the prior week. I don't think they break out the estimate for the current week number.
Thank god you're here to be lizzy-on-the-spot with the data, I was growing frustrated at the amplitude and frequency of Matrix quotes and calls for "this is bullshit". Not that it isn't, just don't call it that without making at leas the effort to look at the data.
Of the 9 states that estimated their claims, only Hawaii showed an increase +235, with the net change of the group being (-7,821) and CA/IL leading that pack with (-4,127) and (-2,114), respectively. The latest trade data showed some strong export data in industries that are located in these states, perhaps related to the financing arms of these operations? Don't know. You do see federal extended benefits jump +64k.
At some point you have to see the rate decrease. That's not necessarily a good thing, because at some point you're going to run out of labor to lay off. The thing that worries me is people are relying on statistics based on prior historical. Not saying "this time is different", but, it's been a very long time since we've seen such a fracture and dramatic shift in all markets. Like [fill in the blank], our models don't go back that far.
Well, not worry. You know me, I'm short as fuck in this game, and have the ability to be patient.
thanks nopat, nice to get some actual info in the remarks instead of the usual emotional bs.
i am rebuilding my short here too...will wait and see if there is any follow through tomorrow before getting too aggressive
Cali is alos a week behind
Question answered.
Wouldn't this occur every year?
No.
But good question, the implication is that the states are not getting the numbers in because the states are in a hiring freeze or laying off folks themselves.
41 got them in, 9 did not, 'nuff said.
BTW, the initial claims are estimates from the states. Really should look at the 4 week average anyway because of all the hedonics (noise) in the weekly number.
Just need to remember that this is an algo driven, front-running mirage and move on.
And just so you know, the revision next week will put the number at 484k so the current week of 475k will look like a beat ... stoopid ADHD headline reading algos.
even computers acn't be this dumb to buy into this surely
http://www.businessinsider.com/world-economic-forum-property-rights-inde...
You Know The US Is Screwed, When China, Gambia, And Jordan Have Better Property RightsJustice is not lost, Rubin and Prince are off the hook at Citi...
Get Erin Burnett to show those bazongas on CNBC now! That is all the stimulus we need.
'Erins bazongas'? Hell she's a stuffed A cup!
You are right. But then again, they are just the right size to fit in my mouth.
I would pour bourbon all over her and lick her clean. Hell, I would even watch CNBC if that came true.
You could try, but I would advise you to stop wasting bourbon; Erin Burnett will NEVER be clean.
Hey,pipe down in there,pipe down,less excitement.
Here,60's bombshell Mrs Undress....i mean Mrs Andress.
http://www.toptenz.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Ursula-Andress.jpg
....hope ya still got some of that liquor left....i mean lick her.
At last, someone with good taste. I used to have wet dreams about Ursula.
No, mom, those are tea stains on my jammies.
Screwing my puts again!!! Why doesn't CNBC report this bit... Paid off commy bastards.
Perfect time to buy more OTM puts for Jan :)
I bet next month when all data does come in at around 500 thousand then this months will get revised from the missing 9
to plus 500 and next month will thus be better than this and the markest rally again
I weep for the future...
and these assholes yammer on about how they need to instill confidence...UFB
the following no longer have any credibility whatsoever:
the Fed
the SEC
the markets themselves as free and fair exchanges
gov't statistics
the list goes on, but once those 4 have failed, and they have, THERE IS NOTHING LEFT TO BELIEVE IN
Gold.
I have 3 women in my office whose husbands are unemployed. Two of them just came off state benefits a couple of weeks ago, and both of their husbands have been unable to get though the call center to register for extended federal benefits. At first I thought, no this can't be right. But there are stories now showing up in several Missouri newspapers, Kansas City, Springfield, Saint Louis, (these are the largest cities in Missouri), reporting on the back log and complaints from citizens. Supposedly MO hired over 100 people, to handle the 10,000 per week that are coming off benefits here. This drama has been going on in our office for over three weeks. The third woman is scared to death that they won't make it when her husband comes off in another week. Both of the other women report that their husbands have been told that extended benefits won't kick in for 4 to 5 weeks. They all just assumed it would be seemless and effortless.
File the claim online for Em. beni's even if they had previous registration. Checks come in the mail first then to direct deposit.
Forget the phone call.
Bought two rolls of silvah dollahs with mine.
Supposedly Missouri is not set up to do that. According to the rumors, you have to register on line, then place a phone call to the call center to verify your information. Evidently when you place your call the unemployed go though the prompts, then when they reach the "wait for an agent" part, the phone system advises that all reps are busy then says call back and disconnects the caller. One of the gals here, on an afternoon off, stated that she and her husband both called for over 4 hours on both their cell phones and could not get though.
pretty much the essence of everything that is wrong with government these days.
BLS is one letter too long..
It goes without saying that the previous week's numbers were revised up (and would have been worse than estimates.)
At this rate, things won't end with a whimper, but with the mother of all bangs..
What the fuck?!!?!?!?
How the hell can the numbers even be issued then???
Now we've seen it all boys.
Well enjoy this show of insanity now because it wont last long and will never happen again. Take pictures and save articles to show your grandkids in your new cave dwelling!
This is out-fucking-rageous.
TD---can you go back through the years to see if this has ever occured in the past?
I am sure he is busy with this as you read this ;-)
did anyone notice that 4am bid from nowhere in the futures? looks like same as last week data was leaked tto get futures within striking distance of "important" technical level on release of data. getting very old.
I woke very early this morning, around 4:30 EDT, and immediately checked out the futures. All I could do was smirk at the lift from heaven. It's becoming very obvious that "the hand" is in play.
The 1min. chart is just so fucking robotic now, especially after hours. NOBODY is trading except the infernal machines.
As Jackson Browne once noted, "the hand" almost always serves itself, and often in the wee morning hours
LOL
You're so "on" today, hitting one great one-liner after another. :>)
Much of the economic system is now based on Accounting Fraud. That will only be exposed when cash runs out, when payments cannot be made. Cash is the ultimate measure of ability to pay.
Cash will not run out. Ben has the printer.
Cash is now electronic ones and zeros and has no relationship to any reality we think is "real". Surprisingly this can go on far longer than you and I will admit because most people would rather embrace the devil they know than go where no one in their life time has ever gone.
I remember reading that about 90% of the monetary system only exists in data banks. Screw the devil we know...I'm tired of this.
Of all the US Dollar "money" out there, only about 3% is cash "which is just as good as money".
Well, then that only means that 97% of my toilet paper is gone. I never thought that I would see the day that the Fed managed to ruin even my morning deuce, but there you have it.
FOFOAs latest piece is interesting. Cash is always the response to hyperinflation and can always be printed because the printers have every motivation to keep the scam alive. It only ends not when they stop but when those at the other end of the bargain, holding gold and other assets stop making the trade.
Goods, not cash. The ability to produce goods is the ultimate measure of ability to pay. Everything else is just hot checks on an overdrawn account.
Please wake me when it's time to start shooting gubmint parasites.
Wake up. It's that time.
Of course, that is not to say that you'll get away with it.
george
yep thats right
thats why we can fight back with demanding our gold and cash
Well folks we all know how bad the situation is out there both domestically and globally. We see it with our family and we see it with our friends. The masters of the universe live in another realm and truly bellieve this is sustainable. Even the 450k number if not forged is bad in plain words.
They cannot outrun the Americans who are falling off benefits and are not spending in increasing numbers. It is showing up in the data ad winter is around the corner leading to more construction job cuts.
The 18th straight outflow tells us a few things:
1) People are taking money out to pay bills
2) People are taking money out because they see the false market and will not be lured back into what was proven to be a ponzi
3) The Federal Reserve is buying stocks. It is clear it is incontovertible and they are placing trillions of Americans money at risk after seeing unprecedented actions from stimulus to ZIRP for like and fake accounting barely gets an econ uptick.
The stock market has been rallying for a year and a half. Since we know th crises have been coming in small intervals and are more intense and more expensive to kick down the road I would say we are about due for the next one. How someone like Ben and the Econ team can operate with such carelessness without any responsibilty or body of law to keep him in check frightening.
I agree. The situation is far worse than they would admit. I believe they are currently in panic mode, buying stocks behind curtains, doing everything they can (including sabotaging the US on the long term) to buy a few weeks of tranquility.
Double post
lol. it would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
Does anybody know if the 9 states have enough budget available to file the reports?
I'm surprised that THIS surprises people.
The numbers have been all BOGUS for ever and a day, why are you surprised now?
Reality is what your corrupt Government decides it is. The sooner people wake up to that, the sooner we can take steps to correct it. And voting incumbents out of office every fours years IS NOT THE WAY. You have the right to bare arms damn it!!!!
Taraxias, based on that beard, I don't think I want to see your arms.
Illinois, Michigan, Virginia, and California are all HUGE states... any idea what proportion of the total jobless claims number they represent?
This must be what television and newspapers were like just prior to the collapse of the soviet union.
The estimators is a who's who list of losers. Michigan, Cali....what the fuck is going on with this government. Things are just getting so far out of control. Everything is a fraud man. How is this not going to end in tears.
Nothing surprises me anymore
I remember a Jon Carpenter film called They Live where we are actually ruled
by aliens disguised as Humans
I would not be surprised if that is true
whoever is behind the garden gnome is NOT HUMAN
people on CNBC cannot be human
Great movie, starring Roddy Piper
Those special glasses needed to "see" the aliens were 80s awesome!
I have often thought of that movie when reading ZH. ZH readers must have the sunglasses...watch the movie, it's a sleeper/classic.
i call that movie a 'poor mans Matrix'...excellent concept...execution could have been slicker..
but if it had been slicker, it wouldn't have been so deliciously cheesy.
It featured one of the best cinema fistfights ever, too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsZpdUUdd3I
... I'm here to chew bubblegum and kick ass.... and I'm all out of bubblegum.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NimgvwDO2CI
Actually, some outer space aliens did land on Earth. They took a quick look around, said, "This place sucks!" and blasted off a warp speed vowing never to return.
This report has me bullish on liquor and ammunition! Then again, nearly anything the government reports gooses me to buy liquor and ammunition.
Santelli really hyped the jobs number on CNBS this am...it was quite disappointing. Maybe he finally took the Blue Pill...
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0133093/quotes
He was a liar.
The resistance was the enemy of man. What did they promise other than starvation and the occasional freak dance mass mulatto orgy?
The second and third movies did not exist. They were created by the Matrix to lessen the effects of the first movie.
At least, that's what I tell myself so I can still enjoy watching the first one.
That's what I tell myself about Star Wars episodes 1-3.
FUBAR again, when will we learn?
How the hell is this constant revision of past numbers not being reported somewhere, anywhere except here?
This has now gotten to the point of horrendously blatant, every data point originally comes out just better than the rosiest expectations only to be revised as soon as no one is looking to something that was worse than expectations...
That the employment numbers are baked is no surprise.
That money runners the world over accept the baked number hook, line, and sinker for their decision making is a surprise.
What's the proper term for making decisions based on bad assumptions?!
I believe 'conjecture' is the word you're looking for.
That explains it.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Aug. 28 were in New York (+4,891), Florida (+1,886), Nevada (+1,052), Oregon (+828), and Texas (+742), while the largest decreases were in California (-4,127), Illinois (-2,114), Iowa (-813), Michigan (-599), and Maryland (-550).
Thanks for those details. So it looks like of the five largest decreasing states you've listed, three were "estimates". And the two states that made their own estimates have turned in the very best figures (the largest decreases). Surprise, surprise! What a crock.
and notice the decreasing estimate states are actually the ones in the deepest economic pile. Did we think only the Feds would lie?
Hell no. And correction to my previous comment: Illinois didn't estimate their own. It was Virginia... my mistake. Would be curious to know how much Virginia's number improved.
This ZH article is posted on Drudge
note to Zero Hedge:
BUY MORE SERVERS
that is all. thank you.
Hit "donate" button yet this year? I did.
Hurray! ZeroHedge recalcitrant females.
Obama says there are 57 states now we find out there are only 41 states. I want a refund
no refunds, no change, just chains you can believe in..
Hahaha, you haven't heard? We recently sold massive portions of the southwest to Mexico to cover our interest payments to China, so 41 might be an accurate count at this point.
What did Mexico pay with? Credit? Illegal immigrants? Drugs?
Drugs and cheap labor. America apparently doesn't function anymore without either.
They cooked the books to get the dow above the 200ma.
If they have to CON so blatantly to get the market above it, things much be absolutely horrendous.
CONfidence maintained. Nothing else matters. Just what Dr. eCON ordered.
congrats you made drudge. Don't let it go to your head
Let the political polarization begin...
Hey we are printing money out of the air, creating wealth out of the arse, so what's a little estimation here and there for the fellows in wall street to run up the market for their hard earned bonuses.
The leadership of the US government - the White House, the Congress, the Judiciary along with and the bureaucratic infrastructure - are pretenders. They got into these leadership positions through currying favor with the monied elite, not through a demonstrated capability to execute well. These guys are deer in the headlights - they have NO IDEA what to do and that is why their behavior and actions are becoming more and more ludicrous by the day.
May I point out, we have a clear leadership void across all society - this isn't limited to just the dorks in DC. Limited character and capability in key leadership position is pervasive - it is concerning.
I'm glad you said that it is pervasive. Yesterday, I listened to a company VP tell a large audience that the US is coming out of the recession. MBA types are all the same--they want to promote a positive message at all times. They are unable to handle a negative message other than to puff it up like a slimy used car salesman does to his wares. The puffery is the very thing that must stop. Everyone from a certain level on up to the CEO of every corporation has this disease. Smart, honest, and realistic people are selected out and diminished every time.
from the DOL report:
"The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Aug. 28 were in New York (+4,891), Florida (+1,886), Nevada (+1,052), Oregon (+828), and Texas (+742), while the largest decreases were in California (-4,127), Illinois (-2,114), Iowa (-813), Michigan (-599), and Maryland (-550)."
So California, Illinois, and Michigan (states that are economic basket cases) have numbers that are entirely made up yet comprise three of the states with the biggest decreases in claims. Awesome.
Take a look at all the rosy local job news coming out in the LA times this week.
why must this not be coincidence? why must you disbelieve?
you must be a conspiracy theory freak !!! LOL ;)
Hahaha, what a fucking farce. I wonder how long it will be before unemployment numbers are determined in the same manner as the Pick 6 numbers come up.
these are pretty much made up numbers. if they were to post a list with the name of every persone unemployed there would be so many discrepancies it would be unreal. just like voter registrations still have dead people and duplicate names.
i don't even want to think about the fraud in unemployment.