This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
No, Actually Bill Gross IS Short Treasurys
In the funniest piece of news today, we have Bill Gross accusing a "blogger" of spreading misinformation that Pimco, and especially the firm's Total Return Fund is short Treasurys, in order to defend himself from CNBC that he is underperforming the market in the current bond rally (somehow Roswell flying saucers got mixed up too). While it is unfortunate that Gross will actually not man up and tell the truth (and yes, you can be off by a month or a year in what is a correct call Bill - there is no shame in that, and you certainly don't have to defend your view to a bunch of teleprompter reading CNBC marionettes). Well, guess what: PIMCO is short Treasury, as disclosed by both Market Value and Duration Weighted Exposure. And while one can hide, if one so desires for disgruntled LP purposes, behind semantics, and Gross can say he is not notionally short cash Treasurys, he most certainly has a sizable synthetic short exposure. Those who actually wish to do the forensic analysis on the April TRF portfolio, will not that that his duration of the various sectors shows he is selling some long dated swaps/swaptions to obtain his negative US Govt exposure given his market value of govt holdings was -9,628 MM, dollar duration was -189,340 resulting in an avg duration of 19.7 yrs. And while HY exposure has been moving out the maturity spectrum as well, from 2.6 yrs to 3.0 yrs to 3.4 yrs, his cash has grown shorter from 5.6 yrs to 4.3 yrs to 4.0 yrs over the past 3 months. Perhaps next time anyone interviewing Gross will ask something more substantial than textbook "finance for retards/CNBC anchors" questions and demand an answer from the bond titan just how many hundreds of billions in UST short equivalent eurodollar notionals he has on his books? And while we wish we had an updated TRF holding (the last one is as of December 31, 2010), even using even stale data, we find that at the end of 2010 TRF had $608.3 billion in Net Futures held SHORT (link), and $588 billion in Eurodollar positions, which is precisely where his marginal synthetic rate bias/exposure is contained. Yes. This is a short equivalent position.
So yes - we are confident that the semantic sticklers, to whom Greece is merely undergoing a Sovereign Liability Management exercise, will buy Gross' attempt at a mea culpa hook line and sinker (and we urge them to read something like Eurodollars for Idiots so they can understand what is going on here). To everyone else, who has moved beyond Finance 101 and understands that cash and synthetic exposure can actually be combined to lead to a specific result, Gross is not only short (in the TRF), but in the case of his Unconstrained Bond Fund, massively so, to the tune of -42% in Market Value (link).
Here is Gross' comedic defense of his conviction short in US paper.
And elsewhere, during an interview with Bloomberg, Gross went so far to basically insult people's intelligence. When asked if he is short on Treasuries, his response:
We are not. To a certain extent, it may be our fault because we have a category in terms of our monthly release that is called treasury or treasury related securities. It could be Treasuries, it could be agencies, it could be swaps which sophisticated bond investors know are entirely different from Treasuries so the extent that it shows up as a short then it's almost entirely been in the swap category as opposed to the Treasuries. The Total Return Fund has had tens of billions of dollars worth of treasuries, to some extent in short-term Treasuries and bills and and collateralized repo. It has never been a question of Pimco in terms of the Treasury's reputation and its potential to default. It has always been a question of value in terms of interest rates relative to other alternatives."
So.... in the hypothetical example where you are long $10 million Greek bonds, and are "hedged" by being long $1 trillion in Greek CDS, you are still "long"Greece... Bill? Bill?
»
- 11388 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
fuckin scumbag
so many disasters man made & others
so much turmoil all over the globe
conspiracy or happenstance it almost doesnt matter
I am convinced that the powers that be, believe something much worse will happen
various theories and reasons abound, based on strings or piles of truth
things will never be what they were
may what ever it is or the series of events that lead to it
be quick, be concise, and have the best possible outcome for the worse of all possible situations
until then enjoy all the side shows
and remember that everything is temporary
It matters.
Oh! would that I could prove for everyone what it is!
"I NEVER had sexual relations with that woman..."
Ah yes, the truth will out. Actually, Gross does not have an obligation to the public to tell what he is doing. Clinton, considering he was an employee if the people in his roll as President (IMO) did have an ethical obligation to be honest with the people.
But, oh wait! Bill did not have Coitus with that woman! Maybe he thought that ment he did not have sexual relations.
Just a little misunderstanding.
"Oh! would that I could prove for everyone what it is!"
Wanna know?
GOTO: 1:44:00 and watch for about 5 minutes.
http://video.google.com.au/videoplay?docid=-1895475242307393956&hl=en#
It's coming back. It did not change our gravitational orbit but it did accelerate polar shift within the earth. The poles are now shifting at a rate about 100x faster than expected.
Edit:
And keep watching for a few minutes to see his evidence of the sun pulsing.
Thanks for the share. Watching it now.
Sounds like you're talking about the "destroyer" celestial object that returns periodically to cause cataclysmic, civilization-destroying events on Earth.
I watched Lucus' "rabbit hole" presentation last year and that's how I got introduced to the idea -- unless you can count 1994's SNES video game "Illusion of Gaia". I did further searches from the armchair from which I use my computer for evidence of this object.
Let me point out that my words were "would that I could prove for everyone" -- by which I specifically mean that what is sufficient for proof for some men is insufficient for others... just like your link today is not sufficient proof for everyone.
I look at a lot of things as possible but neither proven true nor proven false. For all I've seen, which is not much in the great scheme of things, I still consider an imminent astronomic apocalypse to be not proven true -- and not proven false. And I'm including the link you gave, since I've finished it by now.
Here's a theory for you to consider: the feudalistic bankers and robber barons don't believe in imminent astronomic apocalypse, but they encourage others to believe in it (along with a thousand other ideas and theories) so that others will relent just a little in the pursuit of justice against the banksters and robber barons on the planet right now at this moment.
In other words, imagine David Rockefeller is cornered by law enforcement agents, who want to try him for crimes against humanity. He then offers them compelling "evidence" that convinces them that a comet is coming to destroy the world. They believe him and they suddenly want to join his team. He laughs his sick ass off at getting away with murder with some evidence that his science propaganda department cooked up.
This, too, is possible, although not provably true or false.
the roswell comment was one in a string of increasingly bizarre statements from Bill
He lies. It's really just that simple: HE LIES -- all the time, in whatever way he thinks will improve his book. End of story.
It was a very poor attempt to disparage "the blogger" by trying to connect 'the blogger" to so-called outlandish conspiracy theories. I love the smell of desperation in the morning.
Outlandish conspiracy theory you say. Roswell?! Surely you jest. It is a proven fact; all quite extensively documented: http://www.ufofestivalroswell.com/
For a minute there, I thought he was going all Jeff Macke on us:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79HLnTPxMho&playnext=1&list=PL6F17C35571F...
I miss the Beaker..., don't see too much of him anymore!
Too funny. And Jeff..., that was a blast from the past!
Thanks, Sofa.
Excellent pick-up
Why on earth is he denying it on national tv? What is he stupid?
Because most people will take his word for it rather than some 'blogger'.
And no, he is not stupid. This is an accepted business practice in America. Straw man building is so much fun when you can knock them down as well.
Damnit, Zero Hedge, you just killed another of my projects I had in the works.
It was going to be a pictogram book, and williambanzai was going to do the illustration for me.
People on CNBsC can legitimately say, to crib a line from There's Something About Mary, that they "work with retards."
Trading in pretty much everything is outright maniacal in currencies, metals, energy, etc.
However, the stalwart issues such as COF, DFS, AXP are unfazed and punching up to 52-week highs, as "electronic payment" boom is about to hit the Smartphone market.
YOKU TZOO AMZN REDF
race for the exits today.
hope no one bought that JCP on the open. whoa!
And AAPL, which he doesn't talk about any more. Momofade was a perfect fade on gold this morning too. He's as good a fade as Cramer.
Holy no Volume....what no charts on AAPL<CRM OR PCLN today
MCP down 25% in two weeks. missed that short, prolly too late now. LULU worth keeping in the radar. seems a little top heavy. and then there's NFLX.....
oops, looks like i was wrong on the "too late now" short on MCP
on Mon, 05/16/2011 - 08:40
#1278638
Yet again, retailers buck off the bad news.
JCP up 7% premarket after blowout earnings.
____________________________________________
yet again you're wrong which is why you don't trust yourself to trade anything but widows and orphans stocks like vz, mo and hd. jcp high $41 today. current $37.75. guess the retailers bucked off the good news before they bucked on the bad news.
Market--high betas act SICK.....I smell fear and loathing
Doesn't want to shout "Fire!" in a crowded theater?
He is about to go down in flames because deflation is going to take rates down
Good luck with your unicorn hunt.
Ben Bernanke and the bankstas do not want deflation. They want inflation and they're going to print money until the reach their objectives.
Perhaps next time anyone interviewing Gross will ask something more substantial than textbook "finance for retards/CNBC anchors" questions and demand an answer from the bond titan just how many hundreds of billions in UST short equivalent eurodollar notionals he has on his books?
And that is (one of the reasons) why CNBC's periodic "full disclosure" announcements are bullshit.
Come on Bill, listen to Marla and tell your audience that they should simply assume that you stand to benefit from being right.
cnbc back to touting that OBL had porn, this from the channel that has a melissa lee porn special every few months (usually when the market is weak) oh well, whatever it takes to relect barack. nbc also taking out trump
Osama bin laden buried at sea
http://www.break.com/usercontent/2011/5/8/osamas-burial-at-sea-2055857
.
I am sure he got a phone call asking him to say something nice about Treasuries.
Half-truths depending on the fact that almost no one understands these derivatives.
Old school rules of misinformation. Rules that benefit the dilligent.
In the context of outright fraud and DSK-ing, it seems tame.
The "law" can shut even Gross and Pimco down if they get too loud about the great Ponzi scheme. I guarantee you any money management firm can be flogged in HFT time by the regulators should they get "the call" to do so.
And in other news, even Yahoo is reporting the technical default on U.S. debt and it has been met with the complete yawn. And to think, PM's are DOWN today.
The world has officially gone apeshit. At least we know we're not to far away from an official default.
Second take: If you are the "blogger", Tyler, then you are proving influential indeed.
yeah, I think that's the real take from all of this........
Breaking news from Joe Weisenthal... The Dow is down.
Breaking news from CNBC - Liesman is still at Shoney's
Bill's nervous that his short is a short-term miss. And it may be a miss for a bit more.
No difference in being early and wrong, Bill. But surely you have enough confidence to handle that for awhile. Right, Bill? Right?
He is defending his real currency.......credibility. As long as the dollar is still considered stronger than the other toilet paper, he needs to be on the right side of opinion while also being on the right side of the trade, two positions that rarely are on the same side.
With $200+ Million in AUM he can't turn on a dime. He must take positions before they pay off. So he must do some PR to defend his new positions. This tells me he knows something is going to happen. You don't stake out something like this on just a hunch or whim. He knows something.
+1
That's deep, Cognitve. You live up to your name.
So it does sound like Gross expects this inflation to continue?
disinformation monday - i've got some gold, no wait a minute; i'm not short treasuries even tho thats what i said last week; i could be flat, I could be short, i could be underperforming; no wait - i'm mad at ben
damn euro is getting a nice little bounce today. taking a breather for another dip i reck'n
No difference between Gross and Juncker:
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
he was defending himself on BBTV today with the same reasoning as well.
If memory serves Eisman was early as well. Everyone laughed at him.
Courage of ones convictions matters.
As for CNBC anchors, useless as tits on a bull.
Michael Burry was early, too, as well as Eisman, and even Paulson. All good shorts enter too early.
**
Question: WHEN should one really start shorting Treasuries? My hunch is July, 2011.
Exactly.
Look for the SHTF in risk assets, after the end of QE2 sinks in (end of June?).
Then wait for hints from Greenspan, Meyer, Dudley, Bernanke, Hilsenrath, etc. that the Fed MUST consider "doing something" which will be code for QE3.
Then wait for the Bernanke speech (last year it was at Jackson Hole).
Then prepare to exit your longs and wait for the turn (last year the 10 year price topped out in October...almost two months after the Jackson Hole speech).
After the turn, it's shorting time!
CNBC anchors are more like pimples on the herpes blisters on the tits on a bull.
I never before realized the congruence of the two meanings of the word "anchor":
1) The host of a television program
2) A heavy, lumpen object usually found in the muck at the bottom of a body of water, designed to keep one in place and prevent movement.
Mere coincidence?
Whose tits are on which bull.
Just askin'
OMG
Now that lizzy36 has been made a contributor we are all in trouble.
Welcome to the fold Lizzy. :>)
Thank you.
;>)
Nice rack, lizzy.
But damn, shave those things once in a while, okay?
Thanks.
ugh....only a chick could get away with posting hairy chest porn. I'm off to wash my eyes out.
Now THAT is Mcfoul!
Please, no moobs before breakfast!
lizzy,
I always had a differnet mental picture of you.. maybe some boots? and reading glasses? Bustier'?
well I had hoped! I am sorry to have my dream crushed!
Please see a laser hair removal shop post haste! and in the same breath the hair club for men.. maybe farm some from down south to up north? then you could grow a fro!
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/marketnews-19148628/lantz-says-u-s-debt-limit-talks-may-stretch-into-autumn-25243795
Hey Bill, you should join our club.
Difference here between NOT short and NET short: Gross knows how to promote PIMCO and how to handle the press. He may elide the "net short" issue, but answers the direct question about treasuries: NOT short. Clever. If you run $1.2T you need to be careful about what you say. He is looking for higher inflation and slower growth, which sounds like PM-friendly stagflation.
Well, by the same logic a whole bunch of idiots assumed that John Paulson was bullish on Abacus by being "long" the equity tranche. Oh, yeah, the several hundred million notional short bet above the equity tranche... that was irrelevant.
Tyler,
just becuase you tell the truth.. in a world of lies.. does not mean that they will not do thier best to undermine the truth you share!
and for the record, good sir! God Bless You! for being on the side of good!
Seriously! Thank YOU!
My very best to you and yours as always, JW
+2
Didn't Gross actually say it CNBC long ago. I am short treasuries. Can't remember for sure.
yes! I need to find that video.. I think its here in a Tyler post! cnbc.
I changed the names of the traditional lions, tigers & bears!, to deliver a more Wall Street compatible version of a spooky bedtime story.
Hey, you scooped it, Tyler, and more power to you as one of the last vestiges of a vigorous fourth estate. You plenty savvy bond market. Your point about duplicity in portfolio disclosure is well taken, but I'm not arguing for Bill's ethical position, just noticing that he shows little interest in walking into the straight left jab of the Brit's opening question, running something like, "Hey aren't you getting your ass kicked in this UST rally?" And I don't know, since I can't follow your high-order analysis: Is he heavily short or marginally short? There is a qualitative difference between GS simulataneously touting and shorting toxic paper and Bill Gross shading a net short position in an extremely delicate political environment, if in fact it is not a large fraction of the $1.2T. You deserve recognition for breakingthe story, but I'm not so sure that today's CNBC interview, as some have suggested, automatically makes Gross a crook or a scumbag, given the current log scale of moral bankruptcy.
Just another lie on any given day. Doesn't matter anymore whether on CNBC or in front of congress. No remorse, no repercussions.
It seems like the only thing the market is worried about is commodities and PM's. Everything else is fine: treasuries, stocks, bonds, etc.
With less Treasuries coming to market, according to one guru, there isn't going to be enough supply of treasuries to satiate the incredible demand.
Jesus. You can't make this shit up.
Well...........actually 'they' are making it up on a daily basis. The further we drift into the Twilight Zone the more we become frightened.
To them it's all just another 2 degrees of drift to starboard. They can make it all up at the endgame.
2 degrees or .000000001.
The thing is CD, if one was a non-finance busy worker not truly tuned into the financial landscape there would be almost no way of knowing what is happening underneath the hood. Even then, the ZH's of the crowd, are sort of dismissed upfront today in regards to the general populace because Americans are currently in Pollyanna time....simply because life in America as we know it--today--seems okay.
I mean, these busy people, the ones that actually make up America are too clouded by their current situation: everyone seems to be getting tax money back or they don't have to pay their mortgages at all anymore.
Seriously, right now, for those that have a job all is fucking rosy until the the inflationary taxes really start to bite. This won't come to a theatre until next year.
The market I'm starting to believe is going to be one of the most uneventful ever until next year when BB QE3 starts the endgame.
Until then, it's noise, smoke, and mirrors. How to trade this: forget about it! You can't.
Flim Flam Man with Donald Trump wannabe hair
damned lying bloggers!
like we can't figure out the synthetic rate bias/exposure from the eurodollar positions!
before breakfast!
Didn't PIMCO come out today and say that their largest position is gold? Isn't that some kind of short of treasuries? No?
Not bondy TRF, yes the new equity thingie +++ the rest
CNBC, first in Bullshit Worldwide.
I wonder how much delay he put in the fuse.
+ 1 PIMPCO
was'nt GS long one of those subprime deals only to learn they had a larger short position.
I saw gross give that CNBC interview. He embarrassed himself with his "I am not short USTs" lie.
One can only surmise that lil Timmy and his band of low IQ thugs got to him. I mean the debt ceiling issue is looming very large from an economic, but more importantly to lil Timmy and his boss with a CT Soc Sec #, from a politcal standpoint.
Someone told Gross in no uncertain terms to get out there and drop yer trousers on CNBC. That'll teach you to feck with fascism.
That first 2 minutes had me laughing, all that about Roswell New Mexico and flying saucers and their probably isn't flying saucers. There was so much in that I have no idea what he is thinking or doing without ever having him say anything definitive.
It's an old Jedi mind trick.
if he's short USTs right now with leverage, he's getting fucked.
A short UST bet requires a QE3 around the corner along with a substantial debt ceiling raise.
Market is at a crossroads and I am itching to short; I just can't reconcile this with an election year and the history since 09. Silver, oil, etc...versus crap like NFLX and LULU.
The GOP wants a market swoon but not to be blamed for it.
I'm precisely where you are.
I make infrequent moves, but when I do, they are outsized ones, and I have been doing well since 2002. Statistically, I've been doing very well, actually.
I am not so sure that the question of the next major move down in equities (especially high beta) can be forestalled much longer by Bernank & The Gang.
IOW, it may be drawing closer to the time of not what they will or won't allow, but rather what they can or can't forestall.
I am not confident the election cycle or any other historical marker has much relevance given how completely FUBAR the system at large is at present.
DSK ended in jail without bailout option. Gross had to soften a bit.
He's damn right about bonds, yields and moving huge portfolio takes time. EU yields will show the way. We are entering new and probably latest MONETARY ICE AGE
Ok...so they trotted Gross out with "I am not short USTs". Who is next? Druckenmiller..."I am actually long the ES"?
Soros _ " I am long US cyclicals"?
Meredith Whitney_ "I am calling a turn in the Muni market"?
Wake up and smell the facsism...this Admin's mental midgets are desperate.
Nice!
Well done ZeroHedge!
F*** 'em!!
In other news:
Google enters the bond market
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Google plans to raise cash by selling bonds for the first time in the company's history, the Internet search giant said Monday in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) declined to comment about the size of the offering but news reports peg it at roughly $3 billion in short-to-medium term notes. The bonds are expected to be priced by market close Monday.
can I get an email for Bill Gross so that I can send this to him! PLEASE!
Pretty Please? wiff suga on top, Please?
Thanks in advance.. please everyone else send that fucking liar an email too!
"So.... in the hypothetical example where you are long $10 million Greek bonds, and are "hedged" by being long $1 trillion in Greek CDS, you are still "long"Greece... Bill? Bill?"
1 Tyler
0 Bill
first round
Oops, No, no, he's not getting back in, it's over folks! By a knock out! Tyler wins!
-
Reuters published "Gross says PIMCO "never" short treausries report. Quote:
"The company's website in May showed PIMCO's $240 billion Total Return fund was short U.S. government-related debt -- which includes Treasuries, TIPS, agencies, interest rate swaps, Treasury futures and options, and FDIC-guaranteed corporate securities.
Asked by Reuters about which of those assets PIMCO was shorting rather than Treasuries, a spokesperson said the firm does not break down that information."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/16/us-treasuries-pimco-idUSTRE74F4JH20110516
Kudos Tyler. The resonse is classic and I just wonder how Bill found his way out of Area 51.
Fixed income is boring. I know I need to learn it and understand it better but it's so fucking boring! Sorry, just saying.
I am seriously surprised that they took such a lopsided one way bet with that much aum. I guess when the gross saw he couldn't front run the fed anymore like the favored PDs were doing he went meshugana.
Short Treasury.. yields.
Stepped out the Fed's Corner,
ensign nerd surfer.
He's short. He also got a call from Geithner. Note the change in language
I just want to know, why does TMV and TBT keep going down.......
like everything else it dpends on where you buy. it I went shot at the height of the financial crisis, I'd still be short. It all depends on where you started the trade. In fact right now I have two conflciting trades. one dollr bull the other dollr bear. the dollr bear was bought at a great ime snd if I hold for a year the teaxes are less. in a short term account I am overweight dollar bull. No taxes. on this.
so if bill gross was short starting that the peak, he should still be short, the same way if you boought at teh bottom of the market I'd still have long holdings.
like everything else it dpends on where you buy. it I went shot at the height of the financial crisis, I'd still be short. It all depends on where you started the trade. In fact right now I have two conflciting trades. one dollr bull the other dollr bear. the dollr bear was bought at a great ime snd if I hold for a year the teaxes are less. in a short term account I am overweight dollar bull. No taxes. on this.
so if bill gross was short starting that the peak, he should still be short, the same way if you boought at teh bottom of the market I'd still have long holdings.
Man, does he use Trump's barber these days?
no kidding. from teeth to hair he looks like chit.
Billy's cryptic message: ''I'm a Lizard King, I can do anything, and my daddy drives a UFO.''
...the shit is so on this year. Look for the insider chump dump just before Benny and the 911 Jets turn Citi size slaughter into T-Bill Gross rally caps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BDBVszev5E
Translation: "I'm not short, I'm long CDS!"
Well he seen another ship on His watch in one off his missives at 2:00 AM
What's a Skipper to do when his mates on the beltway are Busdrivers?
So short the short bus. Welcome to the Jungle.
Right now, 17 percent of the IMF funding pool that the $40 billion bailout is being drawn from comes from U.S. taxpayers. If that ratio holds true, that means American taxpayers are paying for $6.8 billion of the Greek bailout. Although the $108 billion extra that Congress approved for the IMF in 2009 hasn’t yet gone into effect.
To hide the bailout from Americans already angry with the $700 billion bank bailout, Congress classified it as an “expanded credit line.” The Congressional Budget Office only scored it as $5 billion because IMF agreed to give the United States a promissory note for the rest of the bill. Sen. Jim DeMint
Gamed as always. Valley of the dry bones and the Taxpayer's are scaped to the bone.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNT_uICTe9M&feature=related
You know what would be smart? A forward contract on US Treasuries for Q4; gotta hedge those dollars, gotta hedge remaining exposure, here "I" go, forward December, buy underlying in September.