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No End In Sight To Equity Outflows As Stock Boycott Persists Despite Largest Bond Outflow Since Lehman Failure

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For the second week in a row, those claiming that flows will any.minute.now. shift away from bonds and go to equities are proven dead wrong. ICI has just reported that in the week ended December 15, not only was there another massive outflow, the 33rd in a row, from domestic equity mutual funds to the tune of $2.4 billion, but taxable and municipal bonds saw a stunning $8.6 billion in outflows, including another record $4.9 billion in muni outflows. At this point absent another major pull back in bond prices, we anticipate that bond inflows will once again resume, even as stock outflows persist indefinitely. Year to date investors have pulled just under $100 billion in money from US-focused equity mutual funds, offset by just $16 billion in comparable inflows into equity strategies via ETFs as we described yesterday. The reason for this seemingly endless boycott of stocks via the bulk of the population was given best by Geoff Bobroff, who told Bloomberg: "I would guess most retail investors are staying put
because you aren’t seeing the money go anywhere else." Another explanation, and just as spot on: nobody, save for a few hedge funds, gives a rats ass about manipulated stocks prices anymore.

More observations on this ongoing farce from Bloomberg:

Bond mutual funds had the biggest client withdrawals in more than two years last week as a flight from fixed-income investments accelerated.

U.S. bond funds experienced withdrawals of $8.62 billion in the week ended Dec. 15, up from $1.66 billion the week before, according to a release from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group. Last week’s withdrawals were the largest since the week ended Oct. 15, 2008, when investors yanked $17.6 billion from bond funds.

Investors are retreating from bond funds after signs of an economic recovery and a stock market rally increased speculation that interest rates may rise. The selloff in Treasuries accelerated after the Federal Reserve last month pledged to buy $600 billion in assets to revive the economy. The 10-year note yields 3.35 percent, up from 2.49 percent Nov. 4, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The $250 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, managed by Bill Gross, had its first net withdrawals in two years in November as investors pulled $1.9 billion, Morningstar reported. Pimco Total Return this month said it is expanding its policy to allow investments in equity-linked securities for the first time since 2003.

We can't wait to hear how the spin doctors will adjust their stories now that the much anticipated equity inflow continues to be a mirage, as Americans realize all too well that the stock market, just like the mythical economic recovery, is nothing but a house of cards scam built on trillions of monetary and fiscal stimuli, even as the organic economy (and market) are a pale shadow of their former selves.

 

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Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:50 | 824876 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Obviously people are getting cash to spend on Christmas!  This is bullish!

/Harry

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:11 | 824934 Arius
Arius's picture

or they are running out of cash after many months of unemployment...

these people do not live in the real world; for them if you sell smt got to buy smt else...how about when you need the money to survive???

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:10 | 825475 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 - "we're all in this together"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5Wq2BvdMeU

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 00:26 | 825559 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Thousands (maybe millions) of Americans are cashing in their retirement accounts early, just to pay bills.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:50 | 824879 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

bring on the dancing girls! boo yah! call jim cramer! we need the bagholders now bad....

maybe the government can mandate that all retail IRA holders invest their cash now! No holding cash! They have to buy and let JPM and GS rape them....

they own Congress, so let's see some action corraling the peasants after the first!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:20 | 824929 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Looks like it's time to implement plan U.S.S.R. or Ultimate Social Security Returns.  It's a new tax of 25% on top of what you already pay and will be invested on your behalf via JPM or GS.  It's called "Ultimate" because this plan has 0% change of failure.  It's called "Returns" because this time you'll be getting it back, unlike the old Social Security program.  We promise.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:22 | 824960 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Payable in a new IRA currency.  To be accepted at approved stores.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:41 | 825388 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Saint Peter don't call me, 'cause I cain't go...I owe my soul to the Govt store!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 08:37 | 825802 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Timely

-Tennessee Ernie Ford

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:50 | 824881 parrumph
parrumph's picture

The more that individuals take money out of the market, the higher it will be pushed.  Dow 36,000 if there are no investors left!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 22:06 | 825419 pemdas
pemdas's picture

How can there be no investors left, when they pulled a cumulative $100 billion out of stock funds this year?  

Maybe the dumb money (mutual funds) will start coming back when the market is 1,000 points higher.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:53 | 824888 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernake put.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:09 | 824927 mynhair
mynhair's picture

it where the sun don't shine.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:31 | 824973 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

he sure did, but I gotta say that I'm getting a warm feeling knowing every Wall St. strategist thinks it's to the moon next year.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 01:44 | 825624 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Bernake put...

      your BALD head...

             where the sun don't shine.

 

That's better...

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:54 | 824891 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"Pimco Total Return this month said it is expanding its policy to allow investments in equity-linked securities for the first time since 2003."

Bad news.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:53 | 824894 random shots
random shots's picture

We know how this works (some of us longer than others)...market goes up high enough that all the bond chasers will kick themselves for not being in equities. Stupid peasents rush back into stocks right at the top as the "house" sells into the panic buying. Market goes down and the cycle continues.

You think this is all new? That it has happen over the last 5-10 years? It is not. Just more people becoming aware. And just like gambling, people will come back even though they know the odds are against them!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:36 | 825272 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. There was selling into strength each day this week. Sign o smart money tiptoeing toward the exit

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:40 | 825275 merehuman
merehuman's picture

gambling is a lot more fun and more honest.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:55 | 824896 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

CNBC was pumping equities today, inbetween noting that many stocks, and the indices, were at two year highs, then having more pump-monkeys on talking about buying financials. 

Amazing.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:54 | 824897 Croesus
Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:34 | 825145 Croesus
Croesus's picture

Alrighty, who junked that? :o)

It's a guy making fun of Chris Crocker, you know the "Leave Britney alone, NOW" guy, and has to do with crash JPM - Buy Silver.

It was wrong to junk that post.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:23 | 825493 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

I wasn't aware that Jamie Demon and Blythe disAsters had identities on ZH to rate posts as Junk...

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 02:03 | 825654 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Say... Isn't that MacIntyre's tartan...

You know one of those Clan Chattan rowdies...

<HUMOR><OFF>

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 04:17 | 825738 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I enjoyed it, thanks.

Jamie Dimon and Banksters and Wall Street puds are worshipped like Brittany Spiers; the worshippers just think of themselves as better than everyone else and "doing God's work".

*cough*

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 08:41 | 825807 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Is that Johnny or Edgar Winter ?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:58 | 824904 winks
winks's picture

What will outflows be if we ever have a "down" week?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:02 | 824917 spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

Do you recall those days a couple of years ago with "sell Imbalance" at the close?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 00:42 | 825573 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

outflows ? I thought they been flowed allready? I keep thinking the shadow market is probably trading aaple at 43.50 but for appearances the ppt has a few hft bots making it appear to be trading at 325.50  for the dumb retail guys like me sitting at the kitchen table with the laptop.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:59 | 824907 AUD
AUD's picture

nobody, save for a few hedge funds, gives a rats ass about manipulated stocks prices anymore.

Yet they seem to give a rats ass about manipulated bonds. Central banks don't buy alot of stocks, they prefer bonds, especially government paper.

Who's the chump?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 17:59 | 824910 spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

Is there any data on what goes into "inverse" ETFs as well ?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:02 | 824919 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bed, Bath, and Beyond gapping up $3.00 to a fresh, new, world record high after hours.

Wow, I guess that the "Endgame for the Financial System", the "Total Collapse of the Global Economy", and the "Systemic Meltdown of The Consumer" has been delayed for a few years....

LOL.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:12 | 824928 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Food stamp usage gapping up to 1 in 7 Americans, a fresh,new world record high.  Wow, I guess that the "Summer of recovery" and the "Economic santa claus rally" has been delayed for a few years...

LOL.

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?base_name=food_stamp_use_skyrocketing&month=12&year=2010

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:20 | 824951 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Last I heard, food stamps is now the biggest freebie fraud game being played here in Los Angeles.

Virtually anybody can get food stamps if you fill out the right forms.

And people can buy anything with them:  Starbucks coffee, sheets and pillowcases at BBBY, Lululemon workout outfits, even yoga classes....

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:27 | 824964 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Last I heard, Governator Arnold fixed all that.  Or was that the welfare credit cards he fixed?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:36 | 824983 gerd
gerd's picture

let me get this straight- you recognize fraud at the lowest

strata of society, but Fraud as a business model for TBTFs escapes you?!

Come on Man!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:16 | 825085 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Robo - I enjoy your bullish contrariness, but am a little confused as to how you reconcile a market that is headed up with the dismal facts facing this country. Unemployment stubbornly high, and the overall sales environment much more challenging. Results only look good relative to a lousy prior year. Maybe you don't try to reconcile, but still... things are tough, and it is hard to see how that can be good for the country, let alone stock valuations in the near term.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:43 | 825282 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

All good things must come to an end. The ice gets mighty thin way out here. The market i just a 'Funny Money Gauge'. If the spigot gets turned down even a bit, we're going lower. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:47 | 825290 merehuman
merehuman's picture

you are getting uglier to me as the days go by Robocreep. Dont you sense the underlying anger of the public?

You wont be needing the blindfold since your vision is already narrow.

And surely we will offer you a last cigarette.

Feel me, i am the common man.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 04:14 | 825734 capitallosses
capitallosses's picture

I'll be cruising Melrose in my 997 TT tomorrow. Where do I get dem food stamps? Time for a small refund of what I've already for!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:10 | 824932 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Yes, BBBY is the economy; well played. Now get back on the LA city bus.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:18 | 824947 spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

BBBY who's biggest competitor went BK ? Best Buy is more of an indicator of today's consumer and they're not sharing the same enthusiasm for the "Consumer".

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:17 | 825240 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

  Circuit City went belly up, one of BBY main competitors, that should help them but apparently they are are not in the club... Its all smoke and mirrors, the fucking banks are insolvent and  they lead the rallys.

Home builders, Banks,  and Retailers rallied  because that was the "play of the day" put in by the "deciders". The Bernank and the TBTF Banks blasted those sectors with their Ol Buddy Hank Paulson's Digital Bazooka. Nothing new.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:19 | 824936 spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

edit: dupe

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:20 | 824950 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Retail goes up this time of year for Christmas. BBBY will be back down before 1QTR whisper #'s are out

My prediction for May 2011 -- oil/gas prices rise --- DIG up big by March.  You heard it here first. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:02 | 825211 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Thanks for the chart. I pointed this out on another thread as well. As with my company we are seeing another, albeit much larger, example of how strong the consumer is.

Also, as I mentioned on the other thread regarding my company's name and location, I do not want to list it here as it is a small business. However, if Tyler wants to verify my information, I will gladly tell him the name and website on the condition it is not listed here. At least that way, you will know from him/her/them that I am legitimate.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:46 | 825289 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You're trying to say: 'micro = macro' . If I'm OK, then you must be OK. 

Not the real world, Harry. The pie is shrinking fast. That doesn't mean there aren't still some crumbs to be had

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:55 | 825402 The Profit Prophet
The Profit Prophet's picture

Wow...this is exciting....my first ZH post.

Harry, you're a douche!  There is likely not a single thing that you have posted on ZH that is "legitimate".  You probably don't even have a Harry Wanger....you more than likely have a Bald Pussy! 

T.E.I.N. everyone. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:43 | 825523 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

HarryWanker.. Will Smooth - Ask Me If I Care

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUgUO4qajh4

 

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:47 | 825295 Ham Wallet
Ham Wallet's picture

Good smelling soaps & other assorted crap doing well during Christmas?  Reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homer invested in pumpkins, noteing that they peak during Halloween.  Thanks for the insight *eyeroll*

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:24 | 825366 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

Fuck you Robo.  Go plant your head up Obama's ass.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:40 | 825386 crazyjsmith
crazyjsmith's picture

Such Fresh logic, thanks Robo Nutz!

Because we all know that the Christmas Retailer is an animal of logic, and mass hysterical consuming just before Christmas is a great leading indicator of a Healthy Economy!! 

I can't wait to jump in!! Who's with me? 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:26 | 825500 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Robo, your right about the numbers (see link below). But this stock is just fools gold. Papercuts do cause deaths.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=BBBY

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 01:49 | 825631 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Yep, that's a top alright. or as close as never mind. But then, I'm a contrarian.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:11 | 824925 thepigman
thepigman's picture

> Another explanation, and just as spot on: nobody, save for a few hedge funds, gives a rats ass about manipulated stocks prices anymore.

 

Correcto. Basically the same way the

Japanese have come to feel about their

stock market.

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:14 | 824937 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Despite what the bulls (or bears) here think, these equity prices are not reflective of the underlying fundamentals of the economy. Think about home prices, and how fast they ran up and how far over a period of eight years. People bought homes that should have been renters (or living at home), because they got caught up in the frenzy. Equity prices now are no different. I personally don't want to own stocks because most companies aren't worth the price the "market" is putting on them in my own opinion. Fine for day traders who don't care about fundamental value and trade directionality... not so fine for investors seeking long term returns and principal preservation.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:28 | 824968 thepigman
thepigman's picture

+100

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:56 | 825192 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

exactly.

I will not put 1 (non-silver) dime into equities until stock prices are reflective of the health of the company instead of the health of the company being based upon the stock price.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:17 | 824943 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

People are withdrawing from their retirement to pay for food, clothing, and shelter cause they ain't got no job.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:48 | 825296 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yep. That trend is intact. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:10 | 825476 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

I know 2 doing that for last 6-9 months because of no jobs. Hey, HarryWanger - you doing any hiring? How can these folks contact you for a job?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:19 | 824945 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

RobotTrader: Do you really think the success of retailers who primarilly sell foreign made consumer goods is good for America and the world in the long run?  The great rebalancing is not delayed, but rather accelerated by this kind of success.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:53 | 825306 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Right on. That tend has made us totally debt dependent since we only import and produce little. WSJ reported lsat week how even the iPhone 4 added $1.9 billion to the trade deficit. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:38 | 824953 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Equity outflows? Piece of cake Gordon. Sir Larry Wildman says, Will have to carry him a few rounds before he drops. Dont make a big deal out of it. Buy it lightly on the way down. When it hits 18, Buy it all.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:25 | 824962 gwar5
gwar5's picture

This just in, it's worth a head scratch:

.....Silver market analyst Ted Butler reviews the recent meeting of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and concludes that the agency's likely future inquiries into the details of the supposed hedged positions of the big silver shorts will show that Chinese interests are behind the silver price suppression scheme. When that is revealed, Butler writes, the scheme will become a great scandal and blow up. Butler's commentary is headlined "A Show Stopper".....

 

Is the CFTC is going to blame the Chinese for the silver market manipulation?  Check it out, check it outers. I'm looking for the link.

.

 

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:36 | 824982 Arius
Arius's picture

too much blame game and cover up; i dont think we'll ever know the truth - what matters though is to protect yourself

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:38 | 824989 gwar5
gwar5's picture

his just in, it's worth a head scratch:

.....Silver market analyst Ted Butler reviews the recent meeting of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and concludes that the agency's likely future inquiries into the details of the supposed hedged positions of the big silver shorts will show that Chinese interests are behind the silver price suppression scheme. When that is revealed, Butler writes, the scheme will become a great scandal and blow up. Butler's commentary is headlined "A Show Stopper".....

 

Ted Butler continued:

 

"...My belief is that it will be Chinese interests on the short side of the swap. Such a finding will lead the CFTC to conclude that it is really China holding the concentrated silver short position and they are using JPMorgan and the CME Group as their dupes to carry out the silver manipulation. This wouldn’t absolve JPMorgan or the CME for enabling China to manipulate silver, but actually make it worse. A foreign super power and clear rival to US national interests being aided and abetted in the serious market crime of manipulation in the price of a vital world commodity by leading US financial firms is almost too outrageous to contemplate. Yet that is exactly what I think has occurred..."

 

That's some juicy bits alright.

Here's the site: http://www.investmentrarities.com or you can go to the GATA dispatches

 

.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:43 | 825000 delacroix
delacroix's picture

the inflation dragon, is waking up

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:46 | 825005 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

yes, something like that would be "outrageous" wouldn't it [yawn]. tell ya what would be outrageous is if they walk in and hand-cuff some of those pricks and charge 'em with espionage, ala Assange

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:30 | 824971 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

Its pretty obvious that equity prices are even more controllable with low volume and near zero rational- profitbased traders. As I have said before, the highest % ownership/ holder of the NYSE stocks is State street.
Usually next in line is Barclays or some other way station. Any volume, as Zero has pointed out, is a fuel injection from the trading rebate system of .5 cents a share. Liquidity and price discovery for the Fed is a fake bid / ask regime where prices are not allowed to see their angle of repose.
The whole market is a hologram run by quants and hft bots- retailers are either ducking in and out on chart momentum or flat out cashing out as their unemployments checks run down and their savings have to work into their IRAs.
So, I suspect, like myself , I don't give a shit about equities because I'm not buying anything of value out there. I have some long,long junior golds as they will be the engine of the new monetary regime but I'm am zero interested in Apple stock. Even if it goes up tp 500, I know its not supposed to be there and I'm not taking the bait, Ben.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:36 | 824984 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

so buying the dips are we....yess?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:37 | 824987 max2205
max2205's picture

Well that's one indicator that I'll never use as a sell signal

IWM very close to ALL TIME HIGHS. TNA baby

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:39 | 824991 dlsamg
dlsamg's picture

Yet up it goes. The game is rigged but so what? You are allowed to play along with the House. Why complain? The higher it goes the more you'll make shorting when it collaspes.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:44 | 825167 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Only if you are in the house. Otherwise, you haven't a clue when to stop playing long and switch to short. Or maybe you're already short, selling more with every advance, hoping this time it's the real top? How long can that continue before your margin call? Longer than Bennie can print money for the next leg up?

In other words, you are sucker about to be fleeced. In a rigged casino, only the house can win, all the rests are merely marks to be relieved of their wealth.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:03 | 825214 dlsamg
dlsamg's picture

You can play with the house. Sure you have to be ready to go short but until then go with the house. You will have plenty of time to tell that the tide has turned. Since March of 2008 you would have made money on every 1 point dip. Today if you bought the emini at a one point dip from its mid morning top of 1249.75 you would have been able to exit with one point profit.at 1250. Do that 100 times and you double your money. Join the party you bitter shorts.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:55 | 825317 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That's presuming The House will let you short at all. Have you checked the 'threshold and hard to borrow' lists lately? And this is while things are up. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:40 | 824993 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

No end in sight to outflows yet:

 

Market keeps making a daily 52wk (not to mention 2yr+) high

Up past 15 of 17 days

Financial stocks (laggard of past few months) are finally showing some strength.

 

 

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:52 | 825021 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Summation Index now curling back up.  McClellan now in a strong uptrend, above the zero line.  Too bad I sold a lot of my stocks today.  Probably not a lot going to happen between now and the end of the year.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:01 | 825052 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

McClennan now in string up-trend? Ya think?! WTF else could it be after they've been pushing that bitch higher every fuckin' day no matter what? Hey everybody! Robo sold! Zat mean it's time to buy? Where's Harry?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:28 | 825125 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Robo, watch out for the 3 day settlement period.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 18:58 | 825037 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Wow, what a bunch of morans.

 

1.) Retail investors pulling out is a good thing. Why? Because they're always wrong at the swings... Buy high, sell low! In addition, they also pull out because they need the money and/or don't trust the market... again, selling at the wrong time, due to irrational behavior and/or economic need, marking a great time to buy.

B.) Funny, but a lot of posters here always scream about the market returns versus gold returns and/or inflation. If the market has been getting creamed all these years by inflation/gold, then any measly rise in stocks means nothing. You can't have your cake and eat it too, guys & gals.

3.) Smarten the eff up. There are still plenty of great buys out there. Hint: There are more stocks out there than just AAPL, GOOG, NFLX & AMZN. Try expanding your little freakin' universe for once and cast your nets a little wider. You'll be pleasantly surprised at what you can find and profit from.

D.) Junk away! It's always easier that way, isn't it....

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:15 | 825068 Arius
Arius's picture

just curious if i may: did you switched intentionally the listing from numbers to letters ? to explain: 1.) B.) 2.) D.)

just curious never seen this before...if it was not done intentionally, you might have stumbled by accident into a great sale technique; it WILL work w/ people with little attention and plenty of cash - it makes them focus on your stock tips - thanks for tips!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:30 | 825133 mynhair
mynhair's picture

(Trimmed failed his outlining class.)

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 00:35 | 825566 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

LOL.... good catch

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:00 | 825203 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

1.) Please explain how 33 weeks of outflow constitutes a swing, rather than a trend?

B.) LOL WUT? (The rise during an investor outflow is evidence of non-market interference. This isn't holding cake vs. eating cake but apples vs. oranges)

3.) Nominal profits, taxable gains, yet reduced purchasing power. Zimbabwe, FTW!

D.) Victim-complex much? Of course, it's always easier when you start off by calling everyone a "bunch of morans." That way, you stand a chance of instigating the attack against you.

Good luck, we're all counting on you.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:20 | 825245 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

1.) 33 weeks is nothing... oh my god, almost 2/3rds of a year! Stop thinking short-term horizons, and you'll begin to see. Nothing happens overnight, with a little bell ringing at the extreme inflection point for all to hear.

B.) The market has been climbing because everything else already has (inflation, gold, etc.). The market is only catching up. Just because "your" team isn't winning this week, doesn't mean that the game had bad officiating.

3.) Again, see above. And for those gold-bugs, enjoy your reduced purchasing power as gold stays flat (or worse) for 5 years (or more). Go ahead and laugh now -- because you won't be in the future.

D.) Yes, there are a lot of morans here. Blinders, they wear. Party line, cult, et al. Sure, there's some good stuff on ZH, but one must take it with a very large grain of salt. It does get quite irksome to read a lot of this spin and narrow focus day after day. Only adding some counter-arguments... which tend to attract Junks.

 

P.S. Thanks for the support. In the meantime, I'll continue to count my profits.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:27 | 825255 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Nice job, Trimmed Hedge! My guess is a ton of posters here lost money shorting or just never put any to work and missed a major run in stocks. It's difficult to admit you're wrong so people tend to try and find any morsel of info that may support their viewpoints.

I own a small business selling discretionary goods and have had an amazing year. Best Q4 in our 9 year history. I've repeatedly told people what I'm seeing and hearing from manufacturers, distributors and retailers. Instead of listening and making some money in a strong retail rally, they sit back and junk. It's amazing!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:46 | 825292 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

I'm familiar with your posts, Harry.

Although I'm sure quite a few here have had a nice run in gold, the fact is they could have had an even better run going long any number of stocks. If they shorted, odds are they got screwed and gave back at least some of their gold profits. And if they stayed in cash, earning 1% in "high"-yield savings accounts, they also got screwed.

Personally, I visit ZH almost daily. There's some good stuff here from Tyler and others. However, it has to be taken within a larger context. It should be one source of info -- not the *only* source of info.

The fact is, a lot of people are still making good money these days, whether it be through investing, trading, working at growing their own business, or whatever. I believe you when you mention your retail biz... people are more confident these days, have more access to loans and freed-up capital, and quite frankly, are probably nesting more and getting tired of looking at all their old, worn-out stuff within their homes. Which all translates into a ringing cash register for you.

Personally, I'm good friends with a realtor, and he's had a great 2010 (verified)... sometimes I think I'm in the wrong business! In addition, I've had my own small business on the side for 3 years now (aside from my full-time gig), and 2010 was by far the best in terms of revenue & profit. My net worth has also grown considerably from the start of the year, and not just due to stock appreciation.

 

In any event, keep fighting the good fight, Harry. I'll be sure to join in from time to time.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:59 | 825324 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

"Although I'm sure quite a few here have had a nice run in gold, the fact is they could have had an even better run going long any number of stocks"

Well, that's not really much of a boast. Anyone can look in the past and pick out stocks that outperformed gold. I'm really good at picking the winners of previous Super Bowls. Can you tell me today which stocks will outperform gold going forward smart guy?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:11 | 825347 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Do your own homework.

And even if you end up being wrong, it's still much more rewarding that way.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 01:06 | 825593 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

I beginning to think you and Harry are the same person. With respect to markets, I am glad your holding that bag. Gold has treated me nicely in the past decade, and the fundamentals look even brighter going forward. It doesn't take a degree to see the debt spiral taking place. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:47 | 825396 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Thanks, Trimmed. I just try to bring perspective to the gloom here. Great to hear you're hearing and seeing what I've been reporting. 

It's almost as if many here DON'T want the economy to do better. Weird.

Good luck!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:18 | 825487 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Harry, this is a serious question - I have several unemployed friends and relatives, and it sounds like your business is kickin ass, so how would these people contact you about employment opportunities? Relocation probably not a problem since some are likely to lose their homes anyways. What's your business URL?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:26 | 825371 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

Burn in hell Harry the Wanker.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 22:15 | 825425 crazyjsmith
crazyjsmith's picture

What do we know about the Retail investor/Retail Consumer Wang Chung?

They usually do the wrong thing... at the wrong time... for the wrong reason.  Ever heard of the Odd Lot Theory?

I am not a gold bug, but I do believe it to be a good insurance policy against the follies of Man/Greed. 

Let's see some real examples, if you don't want to be constantly junked, come to the table with some real stats, some real numbers, some real examples, not just hyperbole about "What you are seeing".  Strong retail rally?  It's Christmas Time and the irrational Retailer/Odd Lotter is out in force, just as predicted, just as expected, right on time, right on schedule.

Is this a leading indicator of economic wealth, or just another indicator of the consumer's total inability to manage their own financial well being because of an insatiable addiction to consuming?  Considering where we stand as a global economy, I am going to bank on the latter.   

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:15 | 825482 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Harry, this is a serious question - I have several unemployed friends and relatives, and it sounds like your business is kickin ass, so how would these people contact you about employment opportunities? Relocation probably not a problem since some are likely to lose their homes anyways. What's your business URL?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:10 | 825346 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You can't see the forest for the trees. While the magician on stage has your eyes focused on market, he's picking your pocket. The system that the Fed has endorsed, which includes pumping the stock market, is keeping all the rot alive in the US economy (can you smell AIG from where you are?) and preventing every new enterprise from getting a chance to reinvigorate the economy (US IPOs in a scary bear market). Now margins are getting squeezed and most people's net worths are sinking. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:16 | 825357 Rusty_Griswold
Rusty_Griswold's picture

Morons is spelled incorrectly, dipshit. If it gets "irksome," go read the Journal. By the way, who the fuck says "irksome?" I'm assuming you are from Europe or California.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:58 | 825405 crazyjsmith
crazyjsmith's picture

You're totally wrong in your assumptions Trim.

Most ZH'ers have a Long Term Time horizon when they analyze this mess we are all in.  The problem a lot of us have is  the very short sided argument that since the markets are up and when people are buying just before Christmas, that somehow indicates everything is going to be fine.  33 weeks is a major issue, especially with a market that seems to defy this stat.  This has been one of the best markets to trade in because it has been so manipulated, and the people shorting have forgotten this fact.  Counter arguments are great, and much appreciated, but back up your words with some examples.  As I said earlier, a terminal illness may take years to reach it's final destination, and as you say, nothing happens overnight.  And when you really look at the horizon, and follow the Real numbers to their logical conclusions, that destination is not a pretty sight for anyone willing to face the truth.  Go ahead and have fun trading and making unrealized money in this market, a lot of people are, none of them being real investors.  If you're not afraid to take profits, you should be able to do very well in this market, as long as you have one hand on the trigger. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 22:01 | 825411 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Dude, c'mon.  I mean you misspelled "moron".  Twice.

+1 to Rusty.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:04 | 825472 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Yeah, I was kinda wondering who these Moran folks were - relatives of Bugsy Moran perhaps?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 22:10 | 825421 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Actually, commodities are lagging way behind: CRB is 25% below the 08 peak. Nasdaq is already way above it and hitting the 07 peak. 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 00:37 | 825564 AUD
AUD's picture

I don't share your view on gold Mr T Hedge but I know the money markets, this includes stocks or shares, are not about to suffer any kind of crash.

My best performing junior golds have taken a beating on the ASX this week, which is disappointing but when looking across the entire market it's easy to see that the selling is just some year end 'profit taking' which is causing the usual Nervous Nellies to sell, since they're expecting the stockmarket to crash at any moment.

To bad they'll be buying higher in the new year!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 04:58 | 825752 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

D.) Yes, there are a lot of morans here. 

Not sure what a moran is, but if you were trying for moron, then it might be a good idea to get your spelling right when you insult someone, otherwise you might look like a moron.

 I'll continue to count my profits.

Is it difficult to count fictitious money?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 00:39 | 825570 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

"(morans) don't trust the market... again, selling at the wrong time, due to irrational behavior"

Not trusting the markets is irrational?  

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:03 | 825056 Jacob Moore
Jacob Moore's picture

Equity outflows = more upside.  I've seen to many articles recently that are telling the retail investor to come back into equities.  When these outflows turn to inflows, I'm a seller - don't want to be on the same side as mom and pop.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:53 | 825536 pitz
pitz's picture

Should be a spectacular gap-up when retail starts to get involved. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:11 | 825071 herpsky
herpsky's picture

Hi there all ZHedgers. I came accidentally on ZH this summer because of some downtime at work and now I can't keep coming here every day. I decided to register not really to post comments but to ask questions. I am a fresh noob. Can some veterans give me some must read threads which will help me not to miss some crucial points? Thanks!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:29 | 825127 dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

Don't ask ridiculous questions.   Just...B U Y  T H E  F U C K I N G  D I P!!!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:29 | 825129 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Ha ha True!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:33 | 825138 mynhair
Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:59 | 825205 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I had to watch it again myself, it cracks me up everytime!! Thanks.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:54 | 825190 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Greetings!  If you've been here since this summer, what is it you don't know? 

ZH is kinda like a global economic soap opera, only real, and everything is a updated continuously by insightful host Tyler Durden.

POMOs? Buying the fucking dips? Monetary end game scenarios? Real estate? uberbitchez of the JP Morgue? Survival techniques? The Bernank? Luck of the Irish? Greek Tragedies? Eurozone?

ZH keeps track of all the moving parts. Know the basics above and seek your special interests. You'll grow hair on your synapsis. Good luck!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:55 | 825191 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

You should just come here every day. You'll figure the rest out for yourself. Or not.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 00:27 | 825560 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Well, I am not a veteran, but if you like absolute bullshit, I advise you to check out my posts.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:26 | 825117 mynhair
mynhair's picture

What boycott?  I bought the fukking dip, u fukking idiot.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:29 | 825132 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

They are going to get Social Security. They will have the Federal Reserve print up the missing money and presto dumb public money to take the other side of the banks. Banks get to unwind the public gets to buy into the market top. You know how bad the retail investor is about investing. Buying the top selling the bottoms.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:33 | 825139 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

ZH how bout a post on what people are thinking for 1Q11. Oil, Silver and/or short everything, or balls to the wall bull. Only a few days left to take a 2010 position. Should be a very popular post. Everybody looking to make the skrill in 2011...

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:45 | 825170 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

I've mished feelings about 2011 Ten economic and investment themes for 2011 and then some.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:40 | 825154 ATG
ATG's picture

SPX up 88% since March 2009 while ZH churned out negative news like ICI Funds,

when the action is in Commodities, ETFs, Futures and Options

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?spx

Targeting another +26% for what its worth

Gold targeting 1610

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24gold

Long Bonds targeting 178

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24usb

Just noticing

 

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:44 | 825168 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Long bonds targeting 178?  Care to share that joint, or did you just forget the decimal point?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:51 | 825181 ATG
ATG's picture

Time will tell all

The last 21 months were cruel to bears and cassandras

 

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 19:46 | 825175 michael@luminan...
michael@luminante.com's picture

gwar5

Thanks for the link regarding the cftc hearings and Ted Butlers comments, let´s see if china default one these OTC commodity derevatives... I guess that could be the black swan that by extension pushes gold up to Martin Armstrong´s target price of 1650 by the begining of Jan. I´ve got alot of confidence when it comes to Martin´s predictions and judging by the price levels of gold right now, something big must propel it higher.

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:26 | 825254 Racer
Racer's picture

they are too busy paying for the hyperinflated necessities like food and fuel that aren't counted as core and the trickle down drops of ice is not enough to feed children

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:45 | 825287 Robslob
Robslob's picture

This time is different...you are running out of suckers sucker...

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:51 | 825288 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

i guess that's why they call it dumb money

just kidding, but really, who invest in equity mutual funds anymore? they are so, um .. yesterday.

with baby boomers starting to retire and some over 70 required to make annual withdrawals, i'm not surprised, given all the other alternatives .. to see this trend continue.

i'll begin to worry when they stop .. or whenever ZH hints at being bullish

(let the junks begin)(personally i think to push the junk link which has no affect, takes about as much maturity as someone who flicks a light switch on and off just for kicks)

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:00 | 825331 spinone
spinone's picture

Ligth on, light off

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:16 | 825356 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That's a lot of "retirements".

The amount of outflows from stocks and bonds this week amounted to more than $30 for every man, woman, and child in America.  Just how many people do you think retired last week? 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:12 | 825479 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Not just retirement, but many folks have had to withdraw from their retirement monies due to long term unemployment.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:51 | 825301 JackES
JackES's picture

Santa rally is probably the only free lunch, hold long till next Tue.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 20:59 | 825322 spinone
spinone's picture

6 more years, them boom

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 22:58 | 825457 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Sounds possible, but what is magic about 6 years?

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:06 | 825342 squexx
squexx's picture

Just buy the fucking dips!

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:21 | 825362 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Used to be that every uptick in the stock market made me feel America was better off. Not this time. Every tick is just another $Million wasted on keeping the dead alive (AIG anyone?), and keeping the new from being born. What happens when you short circuit supply/demand and the natural price discovery mechanism. China and the US are rushing toward resembling each other more and more every day as we get a more centrally planned state capitalism backed by an ever more authoritarian approach. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:24 | 825367 Salinger
Salinger's picture

Gijsbert Groenewegen (silver arrow capital)
on Bloomberg earlier today predicts  economic collapse

http://eplayer.clipsyndicate.com/flash/3/flvplayer.swf?cb=9486&swfHome=e...

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:30 | 825377 sgorem
sgorem's picture

Oil & Cotton are way up. Makes sense to me. Bernank the Bumpkin needs so much Oil to keep the Cotton Gins running smoothly around the clock printing monopoly money. In ALL my years, I have never seen such a CROCK OF SHIT FOR A GOVERNMENT-AND-WORTHLESS, CLUELESS, FUCKING SHEEPLES-AND-A BLATANT, FRAUDULANT, CORRUPT, CROOKED BUSINESS SYNDICATE. Equities will crash and burn with all occupants & Bonds Away! Haven't WE been here before? Hello! BBBY=get in the fucking real world RoboWangDoom............Debt, UNemployment, Housing, Inflation out the Ying/Yang.....give US a fucking break with all the jibber-jabber and craw back into your selective holes, would ya!?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:50 | 826583 ATG
ATG's picture

Very funny

Meanwhile, TTWO earnings up +644% and DE earnings up 365%,

with TTWO targeting +121% from 11.29 50 dma bluebloodline and

DE targeting+25% from 78.31 50dma

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=ttwo

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=de

Although realthink that is not blindbat kneejerk bearish gets junked on ZH,

SPX earnings are on track to be +47% higher in 2010 than in 2009

Just maybe that is why SPX targeting all-time highs at 1590

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=spx

 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 21:35 | 825378 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Australian market clears to new 9-mo. highs.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 22:56 | 825456 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Clearly the equity outflow is probably largely the result of insiders cashing in and cashing out their stock options on the heel of the record selling that ZH has frequently cited. 

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:24 | 825497 frankoo
frankoo's picture

You mean "frequently caused"   lol

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 01:06 | 825592 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

Or clearly its retards cashing out into big-sister bonds that will be the next bubble to pop.  I don't see how we can tell without more data.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 22:58 | 825460 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Nice job Tyler. Point your audience to CFR/FinCEN Chapter X changes.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 23:23 | 825494 frankoo
frankoo's picture

Well, all I know is,  I was so friggin smart, that I lost twenty big ones this year, waiting for "Sell the fuckking rips". Onward and upward!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 00:43 | 825575 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

I suspect you've got plenty of company. I'll fess up, myself.... but not 20 large (but maybe in proportion to total capital, etc). But we'll get those fuckers yet, won't we? and see who's laughin' then, Mildred. Sorry, the acid's not quite wore off yet.....

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 01:04 | 825587 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

This is actually bullish to me if it does indeed represent the masses.  They are usually wrong.

Look at the long-term ICI spreadsheet at the link.  The domestic equity oscillates back and forth but the stampede has been into taxable bonds big time since the 08 crash.  So to me it appears the herd is moving into bonds and those are the most likely thing to get killed next.  Moo.

OR this represents the smart money.  No way to tell without linking the dollar amounts to account sizes.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 04:17 | 825733 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

This thread is polluted by the wasters and distractors of thought. This may be the most important takeaway from ZH'rs readers.

ATTENTION: Harry Minoxidil Cock, Trimmed Sludge, and Robot are engaged in a three-way schnitzel suckfest.

I have given so much leeway to your postings, but now your tag-team brain drain is revealed fully. I truly, honestly, hope that since THERE IS NO WAY YOU CAN believe your own cacophony, that at least you will have protected your family and loved ones by acting in opposition to the aberations typed by your fingers.

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:14 | 825826 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Robo in process of taking his money.

Wanker? Hard to believe he's even

real. Course maybe he DOES sell couch

slipcovers and write for Minyanville.

Too  funny.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 06:29 | 825774 qussl3
qussl3's picture

What portion of mutual fund outflows go into ETFs?

ETF assets are growing at a healthy clip, wont be surprised if retail is buying just not through the usual channels.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 07:00 | 825782 BearishFeijoadaSushi
BearishFeijoadaSushi's picture

Where is this money going?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:01 | 825820 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

There are several reasons I can think of that there are net outflows from mutual funds.

More money into ETFs.

Retirees and near retirees cashing out for needed cash.

Unemployed/underemployed needing the cash.

Baby boomers like me who need the cash to pay college costs for kids.

Baby boomers like me who would rather pay the taxes now, plus the 10% penalty, rather than waiting for retirement when taxes are bound to be much higher.

I also used some of the withdrawn money to buy gold/silver/platinum.

My CPA look horrified when I told her I took a large IRA withdrawal, and was willing to pay both the tax and the penalty. She seemed oblivious to the possibility that taxes could go up in the future, the value of the investments/cash in the accounts could decrease, or that the after tax proceeds could be reinvested to compensate for the tax/penalty hit.

Heck the silver I bought with a little of the money is up 50%.

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