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No Endives!
I went to my Korean grocer today. The bin where the endives usual sit
was empty. I got this wrapper with the nice recipes. My endives come
from Brussels. The ones I wanted are probably sitting in an Antwerp
warehouse rotting.
We can go a long time without endives. But there are other things that
we will need that are not going to get here if the volcano continues to
block air traffic from Europe. It's impossible to predict how an act of
god will turn out. I’ll try.
There are only three possible outcomes. Either the eruption continues
at its current level, or it could increase in size, or it goes
dormant. Two of the three possible outcomes are bad news. Absent
anything else, the Base Case has to be that the damn thing continues.
Looking at charts of past performance of a stock or a market really does
not provide an answer to what may happen next. But looking in the past
is the only guide we have, so we use it. That the volcano blew ash for
two full years 190 years ago is of little relevance today, but I will
use it. Therefore a conservative Base Case would be for a continuation
of the current ash production for at least three-months, alternatively
it would belch periodically for several years.
If that were to happen a question to ask is how far will the ash cloud
move? Once again there is reason for concern on that. In the northern
latitudes the prevailing winds are referred to as the “Westerlies”.
These winds are influenced by the Jet Stream. This stream of air circles
the globe in an erratic pattern. It ranges from 4 to 7 miles from the
surface of the earth. It can be as large as 1,000 miles wide and three
miles deep. It moves at speeds up to 300mph.
This first picture shows generally the position of the Westerlies:
The following picture is difficult to read, it shows the jet stream
position as of February 2010. Notice that it goes from Europe to Russia,
over Asia, the Pacific and right over the US. There are reports that
the volcano is spewing ash nine miles into the atmosphere, well into the
range of the jet stream. The Base Case has to assume that this has some
influence on air traffic north of the equator. Gulp.
It is not reasonable to assume that there will be a shutdown of air
travel. As of today only a small portion of the northern hemisphere has
been impacted. Even that area will begin some flights in the coming
days. While it is likely that ash particles will ultimately circle the
globe that does not mean that air traffic would be severely affected. It
is equally reasonable to assume that the level of interruption will not
be “0” either. The Base Case has a range of 10-40% in curtailment. I
will use the mid-point of 25%.
The international air cargo business soared from 2005 to 2007. Then it
tanked with everything else. It was recovering strongly in the 1st Q of
2010. I have some data from IATA from 2005. I checked it with recent
tonnage and insured customs values in Miami and London. I think this
data is representative of what the market for global airfreight
shipments were prior to the eruption. If anything, it would understate
the pre-volcano numbers.
The 2005 total was $3.25 Trillion. That comes to 35% of the total global
trade of $9.2T. Total world GDP in 2009 was ~$60T. So the value of the
goods shipped by airfreight comes to 5% of the total. That ain’t hay.
The Base Case knocks the impact down. It comes to about $1trillion per
year, call that $100b per month on average. It is still 1.5% of total
GDP. It is enough to make a difference.
What’s in those cargo planes? Everything. The US total
domestic/international number was a staggering 82 million tons in 2009.
Think of flying 50 million Ford Taurus’s someplace. What’s in those
containers? Electronics, microchips, pharmaceuticals, medical devices,
gems, cash/checks (tons of it), on-time parts delivery and an amazing
volume and value of food products.
This smoker is worth watching. It could change a lot of things. Let’s
hope it goes back to sleep for another 200 years.
»
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No, not the belgian endive! Don't think that most folks will notice though, as just about everytime I buy it at the grocery store, I get a cashier who asks with a confused look, "What is this?".
The Germans must be very happy with their big solar investments now.
No French fries?
This is total rubbish. What the ash will prove, in fact, is how totally unnecessary air travel is.
I guarantee you that if the ash cloud lasted for 10 weeks, 10 months or 10 years, world trade would not be affected at all. Just lots and lost of quite useless and totally pointless holdays and business travel slightly reduced for a bit until people remember railways, ships and doing without the kenyan mange touts.
In other words a better life with less polution and less pointless consumption.
Well I will guaranty you back. If this last 10 weeks world trade will be significantly impacted. This useless travel for holidays and business you speak of is actually central to the way things work.
We would be better off without all the consumption. But I think you will see that when you need some ball bearings to fix your German car you will think differently on this.
So the garage wholesalers in each country have to hold a little more stock? Boo hoo. just a little adjustment to the system that's all. And I do not drive a german car, and there are plenty of cars to go round, remember? they are paying us to scrap perfectly good ones.
I repeat, this is a storm in an eggcup, resouces are redeployed: - a dog barks, the wind blows, the caravan moves on.
I agree with you Bruce, this volcano is no simple snowstorm or Cesar Chavez day. The high value added components that are most impacted sound like an exact match of the description of US exports. See the BBH article posted on ZH today. It could cripple our EU exports and the administration's plan for increasing employment through said exports. I think people need to revise their forecasts upward for initial claims in 2010.
G-d is slowing everyone down for a reason...
Secular cynics out there should refer to Psalm 68 and see if the words resonate.
hmm maybe time to buy some Australian GRAINCORP LIMITED FPO
The airlines are screaming to be allowed to fly now. Never mind the danger. European tourism could really take a hit.
When the freeways are flowing smoothly all is good - when a small fender bender happens it just backs up for miles and miles even if 5 of six lanes are operating clear.
Its called by a name - bottle neck - yah thats it i'll get another beer and ponder just what a complete disaster this little cloud is creating.
Some win some lose but all are affected because even the southern hemisphere is backing up
There are $Millions of dollars in African and Latin America produce and seafood that are going to rot because they can't get in to the EU market.
not if they give it to their people who are starving
employment factors
raining ,, employment down ,, unexpected rain
snowing employmnet down unexpected snow
monday employment down .. unexpected hung over weekend from celebrating unusually high employment for the past week ....government statistics show 400,000 jobs lost .. expected 500,000
volcanic ash,, employment down unexpected ten feet of ash on roads
macdonalds opens new burger joint... 75 new manufacturing jobs created
Dow unexpectly rises 250
Hah ha ha So much for Global Warming.
Would Dr. Gore please pick up the dirty grey telephone? Dr. Gore? Dr. Gore?
Is anybody there?
Let 'em freeze to death in the cold soot.
Wouldn't be a big loss if some of those consuming idiots somewhere had to do without their imported junk anyway, would it...self-sufficiency and being a generalist is likely to be the way of the future after all. Might as well get into practice.
Anyway, you're attempting to quantify the unquantifiable.
Yes, this is the sort of thumbsucking the MSM is always engaged in. Give it a week or two and some trends will appear.
If unemployment numbers are over estimates this week in the US I am sure the volcano will be blamed.
Along with Ceasar Chavez Day celebrations in California. (For the third week, no less.)
You actually eat endive? Gross.
Nature is a bitch and cares nothing for the acts of man.
This will last about a year probably and the more powerful volcano may be triggered also.
You can substitute dandelion for endive.
As I am always long horse, cow, and chicken manure (aka Black Gold), I decided years ago to horizontally integrate production into a caloric portfolio. Thus, I am a net producer of endive and 30+ other veggies, herbs, fruits, poultry, meat, and dairy products.
Braised endives with stuffed rabbit legs wrapped in bacon w/ a mustard cream sauce is very nice. Good thing I have plenty of white Burgundy put away, too.
nice one SWR. dandelions have more nutrients as well i believe.
Around my house dandelions have more Round Up as well.
I guess you've never seen people in their yards digging them up; not to get rid of them, mind you, but to eat them.
Oh, I know people eat the stuff. Some folks even make it into wine. Just be sure the guy with the spray bottle hasn't been there first. Or the dog with the full bladder...
Go long NG
Mother Nature's revenge is brutal! Earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, floods, tsunamis will all make financial Black Swans look insignificant by comparison.
If it kicks up a notch or two, we could face one of those "years without a summer" situations we all thought we'd only see in history books. Think crop failures all across Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. If it lasts for a year we'll get to relive the Valley Forge type winters they had back in the Little Ice Age. Oh joy.
Russia still has Chernobyl to deal with (http://www.mapsorama.com/maps/europe/ukraine/chornobyl_radiation96.jpg).
by three chord sloth
I haven't seen anyone address the real critical supply question yet:
http://public.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pnsr_tHR3N6jkykjXsn80S4VBewIcGiROviMtIueWNsZgiPhvc9HDHsxMZg9GwrPv14ayYIavv-B342FVt_MB4A/nobeer.png
Shit! I live in Texas.
Armadillo's defense mechanism is to jump straight up. Can't you just go out and "scare" up dinner?
The horror... the horror...
OTOH Cunard says forget about taking the Queen Mary 2 anytime soon. Sold out!