No QE3 Right - So Why Did The USD Just Hit A New Cyclical Low? Citi Explains Why

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Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:32 | 1213723 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Because nobody in their right mind trust Bernanke or congress to do the right thing.


BTW... what's the technical support of the US dollar MUST NOT BREAK? Isn't it around mid-71?

And if you think gold has shot up... just wait till tomorrow after the next bond sale, the US will break the debt ceiling!

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:36 | 1213743 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Just above 71, record low set in July 2008. 2 months before the Sixth Sense death moment for the Global Financial System, it still hasn't sussed itself out as a ghost yet.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:45 | 1213780 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

actually it was 70.69 in March 2008...but that's just's toast.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 20:58 | 1214406 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

I see dead currencies.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:36 | 1213751 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

yes the all time low for the USD is just below 71...but that's irrelevant at this point since it is pretty much a given that the $DXY will be below 70 before June. The USD has NO support.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:51 | 1213802 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

But the Treasury Secretary just reaffirmed the strong dollar policy!  Surely Little Turbo Tax Timmy isn't a lying scumbag.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:36 | 1213938 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Or a tax cheat...

All this talk of the DXY...comparing toilet paper to toilet paper as they all swirl down the loo...

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:24 | 1213913 narnia
narnia's picture

the DXY is 57% weighted towards the Euro.  one of its only items of support is the potential implosion or disintegration of that piece of toilet paper.

the $ reached an all time low against the AUD (#1 in Soverign Fiscal Responsibility Index) & near all time lows against the NSD (#2), sliver & gold. 

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 19:37 | 1214137 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

It wasn't that long ago that 1 US dollar = .62 Canadian. Now one US dollar = 1.05 Canadian. Very bullish for cross border shopping. 

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 19:52 | 1214179 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I know what you mean but you explained it backwards. 1 CDN dollar  was equal to 62 US cents. Today 1 CDN dollar = 1.05 US dollars

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 22:09 | 1214592 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Yeah I remember getting lap dances for around 10 dollars US just 5 years ago... ah, Sundowners it's been too long.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 19:50 | 1214183 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Other way around, but yea.

1 CAD bought .62 USD in 2000

now 1 CAD buys 1.05 USD

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 20:05 | 1214219 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Thanks for the clarification. It has been a long day and I don't trade forex though I'm intrigued. 

Luckily, in terms of selling my labour, I've been on the right side of the trade. And having lived on both sides of the border, my celsius = fahrenheit ratio is totally screwed up too!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 03:59 | 1215014 Law97
Law97's picture

 took a vacation to BC last summer and felt like I was damned poor.  Prices were 50% more expensive in Canadian dollars, just like it always had been, but this time the exchange rate made it so that everything was 50% more expensive in REAL terms.  $10 dollar happy meals, $120 cheap motel rooms, $8 pints, $4 ice cream cones.  I felt downright poor compared to the Canadians.  Here I am, a well-paid professional in the U.S. and I felt like I couldn't keep up with even the working classes I saw around me in Canada who were spending freely.  What a reversal. 


I travel quite a bit internationally and have for the last 20 years or more.  Americans always used enjoy very inexpensive prices pretty much anywhere they went.  Now it's the opposite.  When we travel we are being crushed by $15 hanburgers and $10 beers.  Even Mexico is no longer a bargain.  Our purchasing power destruction is obvious to anyone who travels internationally.  It's been a real eye opener just how far we've fallen in the last 5-10 years.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 07:38 | 1215174 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

I remember the good old days, summer '01, travelling in Germany, when the DM was artificially cheap v. the dollar... $20 hotel rooms, $4 dinners, $1.75 liters of beer-- and this was in places like Munich and Berlin.  Augsburg, the greatest small city in Northern Europe, was even cheaper. 

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 22:08 | 1214589 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Makes the drop in home prices all that worse

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 22:56 | 1214703 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Cue next European sovereign debt crisis to pop the dollar for a couple of weeks and let the HFT FX trade machines make some money.

Then QE 3 (purchase of MBS's by FED) then let oil and food prices go up another 25% and say that "core inflation is still at 2%" as seniors get 0.2% for savings and start buying dog food.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:47 | 1213786 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

Yeah, 70.74, the all time low.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:29 | 1213728 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

pass the sweet and sour shrimp................

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:06 | 1213854 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Were you making a reference to the "mail order school of diplomacy" skit from '75 SNL?

If so, amazingly obscure.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:19 | 1213895 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Oh . .

I was just about to cause an international incident by shooting someone who'd said something anti-american

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 20:54 | 1214390 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Like go Habs go! Game 7. I know it is bread and circuses but it is my one guilty pleasure.

Errr Edit: Not my only guilty pleasure but hey ...

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:42 | 1213740 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The FED predicts a GDP growth of 3.5% in 2011. This is a number that boggles the mind. Any body like to comment it?

Secondly if the growth does not materialize and/or inflation spikes the FED keeps its options open to ease once again the MS to levitate assets again...Right?

Have I understood the gist?

Wow! Benocide thinks he can run the ship up the growth hill without inflation, without asset devaluation, without USD caving in completely. A maestro at work! So corporates don't pretend your margins are getting crushed by commodity hikes that don't exist. Oil hikes are of NO consequence on inflation! October revolution anyone?

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:44 | 1213773 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

3.5% is only ``nominal`` growth... if you factor in the ``deficit spending`` of 10-12% of GDP + dollar devaluation, the real growth is -10%...

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:46 | 1213782 falak pema
falak pema's picture

That beats zimbabwe...

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 22:19 | 1214077 honestann
honestann's picture

Sure.  To make it much easier to understand, just consider the exact equivalent situation for your neighbor next door.

#1:  His income drops 20% from last year.

#2:  He borrows funds equal to 23.5% of income last year.

#3:  Therefore, his GDP (and spending) this year is +3.5%.

That's how they calculate things.  Notice how we must totally ingore the increase in your neighbor's debt to end up with GDP at +3.5%.  The fact is, his real GDP is -25% to -45% depending upon the interest rate he is paying to borrow that money.  In the case of the federal government, the interest rate is only "a few percent".

The point is, the GDP is falling like a rock.  All these mind games are to attempt to hide the fact that the USSA has been in depression for several years now.  The fact is, the USSA is in deep, deep shit, and sinking fast.  The whole game of the federal reserve, federal government, banksters international and mainstream media is to fake gringos into a false sense of security and hope until they are completely sunk in the bog of history.  Whether that already happened or not is a matter of opinion, I suppose.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 23:40 | 1214779 JeffB
JeffB's picture

The tragedy, however, is that the U.S. debt went up $1.7 trillion in 2010. That is 53% of total federal revenues for 2010 & 17% of GDP. Government spending, counting state & local was 48% of GDP.

Yeah, we're in a heap of trouble.


Thu, 04/28/2011 - 00:38 | 1214861 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The mind of the central banker is a scary place to visit-

Chronicle of currency collapses: re-examining the effects on output

The impact of currency collapses (ie large nominal depreciations or devaluations) on real output remains unsettled in the empirical macroeconomic literature. This paper provides new empirical evidence on this relationship using a dataset for 108 emerging and developing economies for the period 1960-2006. We provide estimates of how these episodes affect growth and output trend. Our main finding is that currency collapses are associated with a permanent output loss relative to trend, which is estimated to range between 2% and 6% of GDP. However, we show that such losses tend to materialise before the drop in the value of the currency, which suggests that the costs of a currency crash largely stem from the factors leading to it. Taken on its own (ie ceteris paribus) we find that currency collapses tend to have a positive effect on output. More generally, we also find that the likelihood of a positive growth rate in the year of the collapse is over two times more likely than a contraction; and that positive growth rates in the years that follow such episodes are the norm. Finally, we show that the persistence of the crash matters, ie one-time events induce exchange rate and output dynamics that differ from consecutive episodes.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:34 | 1213742 honestann
honestann's picture

The dollar is toast.

No, cancel that.  Toast is real.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:42 | 1213762 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

The U.S. dollar went extinct in 1971. It can now be referred to correctly as one of the following:

Federal Reserve Note

Monopoly money

Jew Confetti

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:22 | 1213901 john39
john39's picture

i get it man.  you get it.  I just can't understand why so few americans get it.  what people really don't get, none of this is really about money, that is just a means to an end.  lets just see how this all turns out. 

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 19:20 | 1214085 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

But...but... iPads...

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 20:41 | 1214334 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Few Americans get it because:

!. In school, they were more concerned with getting condoms on cucumbers.

2. They all knew the welfare system would be there.

3. Finance and money is so boring unless one wants a quick 8 ball.

4. New season of Idol!

5. Hope & change is a hell of a lot eassier to vote for than do.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 23:43 | 1214786 JeffB
JeffB's picture

"lets just see how this all turns out."

I feel too much like a fly stuck in a web watching a spider approach to enjoy watching how things unfold.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:49 | 1213995 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

Wrong, not jew confetti, rather zionist confetti.

Big difference between Ashkhenazi and sephardi jews.


Wed, 04/27/2011 - 19:06 | 1214029 Holodomor2012
Holodomor2012's picture

If it walks like a duck.

Anyhow, nice work on your +9 Funky.  Someone told me it's a point for every Jew who junks you and 10 for every vitriolic sayanim who responds.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 23:06 | 1214724 Richard640
Richard640's picture

but what about Kirk Douglas's magnificent chin...?

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 19:09 | 1214054 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

fine but you know not all jews like bernanke or the fed, or the status quo at the moment...lets not get all hitler over know how that ended

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 19:23 | 1214101 Holodomor2012
Holodomor2012's picture

No, actually no one knows how that ended because they get thrown in jail for talking about it. 


Wed, 04/27/2011 - 22:18 | 1214607 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

They are doing a lot of damage to themselves but its not right to ruin USA economy for their own games.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 19:24 | 1214103 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Joo, not Jew. One has little to do with the other.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 22:13 | 1214599 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

You're spot on, why the junks?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 01:28 | 1214910 Client 9
Client 9's picture

Your comments are racist, ignorant and cruel. You must desist.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:42 | 1213777 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

You can eat a toast, but you can't eat toilet paper!

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:07 | 1213850 sabra1
sabra1's picture

depends what's on the toilet paper!

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 21:46 | 1214542 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture that Nutella??? uh, the aroma seems a bit off....

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 17:51 | 1213809 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture


Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:27 | 1213921 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

I can eat toast....sandwiching my iPad...yummy!

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 18:44 | 1213972 Conchy Joe
Conchy Joe's picture

I like my toast golden brown - the gold you can eat.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 00:58 | 1214882 tsx500
tsx500's picture

that is a huge slap in the face for toast my friend !

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