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No Volume Whatsoever
The market is dead, with only Cyborg algos trading amongst themselves, as is the norm lately. No reason to even comment on this. Nobody wants to sell courtesy of moral hazard, and nobody wants to buy courtesy of 100x P/E. Can we just call it a stalemate and all go home. This is getting really stupid. (oh and note the volume "accumulation" of days in which the market was up. Yeah, exactly).
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What would happen if we all jumped in long?
Look out below!
The Feds (GS) would drive the market down and take your money!
Books
Be right behind ya
It's like watching the last two drunk couples dancing at the party, and you're the DD who has to wait and take them home.
that cracked me up
LOL. Thanks I needed that.
ahhhhh hahhahaha thats great!
but i like anything alcohol related =\
JUST WAIT, they'll be puking in the car.
Hey, AMZN got a downgrade on valuation (not sure what that is, think i may have heard the word b/f). hahahahah - "beginning to border on the improbable".
3:44 (Dow Jones) Amazon (AMZN) should be a core holding in investors'
portfolios, and its growth prospects are "outstanding," Needham says. "But
they're not limitless," the firm adds, even though the "current share price is
starting to imply that they are." Firm cuts AMZN to hold from buy. Needham
says recent surge in AMZN shares implies a long-term revenue growth rate
that's "beginning to border on the improbable," thus the downgrade. AMZN down
Gosh, a downgrade from 'limitless' to merely 'outstanding'. I wish I had performance reviews like that.
It's almost restores my faith in mankind that an analyst would finally come out and say are you shitting me.
What we need is a real DXY rally. Would be like a 50,000-volt jolt to the market's copper bathtub.
I don't care about volts. How many amps are you thinking?
(Double post...oops!)
After all of the work it did yesterday, the market needs a nap. SSHHHHH! Last one out turn out the lights please. We have a big day full of dollar destruction tommorow!
Im trying so hard not to put a bullet into my brain and end the insufferable lunacy of never-never-land-markets.
as an aside, Mayhem, can u comment on this?
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iXx78_5sm2cIMa8kTQTiEzdnBD-wD9C0P5A80
http://www.examiner.com
World Health Organization analysis of flu virus genes
The World Health Organization (WHO), analyzed genetic material from patients infected with the flu virus being transmitted in the Ukraine. In a statement released today, the WHO states that preliminary tests indicate that:
"the virus is similar to the virus used for production of the pandemic influenza vaccine"
How similar is the Ukranian flu to the swine flu?
The WHO does not explain how similar the Ukranian flu virus is to the H1N1 virus. It is interesting that the WHO also does not indicate that the virus is the same as the Novel A H1N1, also known as the California flu or the swine flu.
Is the Ukrainian flu a mutated form of H1N1?
With the international uproar, quarantine at some Ukranian borders, and a shut down of public gatherings in the Ukraine due to the swift and fatal results of this flu infection, if the flu was clearly the same H1N1 virus found everywhere else, why would the WHO not immediately publicize that fact?
too many unanswered questions from the WHO. and we are long past trusting the "experts". thanks AM.
That deaf dumb and blind virus
sure plays a mean pinball. Or so the
WHO say.
Project Mayhem had a nice piece on this the other day. The Examiner is the first and I hesitate to use the word "mainstream" reporting to cover this.
Today's internal market readings are reflective of only one thing: HFT algo's attempting to pin XOM et al. into OpEx as the DJIA takes decisive leadership across domestic equity markets while the NDX-100, SP-500 and RUSSELL 2K considerably underperform.
VOLD lame, ADD weak, TICK highly erratic while VIX continues to coil lower while registering serious positive divergences on a weekly. The $DXY US Dollar Index plotted a new swing low at 74.66 yet reversed sharply to close well over the 75 handle. ONLY a 135 minute (1/3 the cash) close above 75.77 will shift the hourly profile from bearish to neutral; and until there are two consecutive closes above 76.89 there is NO uptrend to speak of. The EURO appears to be initially confirming a possible $DXY bottom. Swissie (CHF) and EuroYen (EURJPY) are the next two majors / crosses needed to confirm any possible US Dollar bottom.
After a Three Inside Up candlestick pattern yesterday, the @ ES (S&P futures continuous contract, current basis December, ESZ09) shook off an earlier looking Hanging Man plot (at 3:54 EST) and closed above the daily 610 EMA (1105.40) with its entire real body. This level had not been touched since 5/20/08 at 1412.99.
It is a scalpers market, best suited for those who work across interval periods of 2-3 mins or the tick. Bottom line: outside of inter-market divergences and subtle hints from the VIX, $DXY, EURO, average true range, short-term volatility, extremely low volume, a frenetic NYSE TICK that repeatedly touched +900 / +1000 (+1051 high) before plunging to -300 / - 600 (-951 low), and a blatantly obvious HFT algo trail of 20 second pulsed basket orders / futures punches after several non-confirmed TICK induced bear traps ... this 'market' is NOT structurally sound and anyone who still remains an "investor" ought seriously consider their effective risk / reward at this extremely high probability juncture of time, price and sentiment.
To regurgitate our thoughts from 11:17 this morning:
... don't be caught dead in XOM ... DOW components are going to see a massive influx of interest over the next few days / weeks as traders / investors sell beta and move to the alleged "safety" of blue chips ... can keep running IF enough people jump on board shorts and open new put interest ... there are 3 you MUST be aware of: XOM, IBM and AAPL. XOM for its mkt cap weighting and its function across ETFs ... IBM bc of its massively outsized weight within the DOW Divisor ... AAPL is the rig / game within the NDX, the NASDAQ 100, at 17% of its weighting and the 'Cult of Cupertino' is THE cult du jour for everyone's sister, neighbor and local fast food cashier.
As the equity markets continue their topping process, being led by currency, leading commodities, lagging the Bond markets and paying no attention at all to credit spreads or such notably leading metrics as the Ted Spread ... $$$ will flow into blue chips and $$$ will come OUT of risk assets and anything beta-driven. So, for equities this means that the RUSSELL 2K and NDX-100 will decisively underperform while the DJIA markedly leads each of its higher beta brethren into a rolling top for all of Primary wave (2) circle.
We have a series of client calls into the early evening but will continually check this board to see if we can help answer any questions. And as always, thanks for taking the time to read our thoughts.
"... don't be caught dead in XOM ... DOW components are going to see a massive influx of interest over the next few days / weeks as traders / investors sell beta and move to the alleged "safety" of blue chips"
But Barron's had a cover story this weekend which gave arguments as to why Exxon is undervalued.
Of course, Barron's also had "Buy GM" cover story, back when the stock was selling at 20, but that's ancient history. Let's let bygones be bygones.
Urgh, I'm ashamed to say I heard it mentioned once in passing and totally forget about it, couldn't care less to read their commercial. Thanks for the heads up Brett ... XOM is simply the best managed bank on the planet.
SRS and DRV seemed to do well into the close...
CRE REITs generally fell down after this today - Moody's continuing with their penance:
Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker Hits Decade High
Exchange insiders are in a tricky spot. They need to raise prices to spur demand, but, at the same time, they can't let prices get anywhere close to former highs, as doing so would unleash a flood of selling by the poor slobs who got caught in the downturn and are waiting for the chance to get out even.
Even if prices made it that high, the "poor slobs" would be too stupid to get out even. Relief becomes greed.
I don't think so- not this time. Anyone smart/lucky enough to stay put are watching like a hawk. They'll bail big time. My acquaintances in my very small sphere all are going to bail once it gets anywhere close (I say 11K +/-). I believe this is well understood by the prop masters so ANY dip down is going to be shored up lest disaster take root. Very high stakes.
"Very high stakes."
Especially, when you consider the 1st wave of Baby Boomers is about to be eligible to start pulling $$ out of their 401Ks.
I'm with you on this - other thing is prices have drifted to levels at which those who haven't already bought in are not prepared to. This is not an investors market - crap divi yield and crap growth prospects. The robots may have done their job in killing the short sellers, but what do they do now?
On a lighter note. These low volume days really keep Marla busy at her day job. LoL
Let's keep the low volume, PLEASE!!
could someone please define no volume? just how many no volume shares are being traded and no volume compared to what?
If you look at the NY Times markets page, check S&P volume. It will read: 0.00.
For the last four months, on options expiration week the market has risen through Thursday (Friday less predictable). Would not be surprised at all to watch the same movie again.
This is just the markets unfortunately. Inefficient.
10.2 unemployed = flat. Slightly over consensus retail = +200.
Whatcha mean "inefficient"? But I thought the good central planners at the SEC, Fed and Treasury had it all figured out so that we have "good" regulation now that makes the markets super efficient. You're making me doubt they can make health care more efficient.
Whatcha mean "inefficient"? But I thought the good central planners at the SEC, Fed and Treasury had it all figured out so that we have "good" regulation now that makes the markets super efficient. You're making me doubt they can make health care more efficient.
Zombieland...Looks like a, um, "market", but it devours anything that gets close enough. Approach at your own risk!
Call Ray Kurzweil immediately, tell him that the Singularity has arrived about 20 years before he predicted.
Apparently the 'machines' first move was to usurp the trading systems.
Ingenious.
The fantastic news is that virtual reality will soon move beyond the markets and overtake everyday life.
This is what the dollar fall has done to one other index
Nikkei August 2009 around 10,400
Dow August 2009 around 9500
Nikkei close 17 November 2009 9730
Dow close 17 November 2009 10,437
The US has a "Strong Dollar Policy"
Gold - UP
Dollar - UP
Treasuries - UP (yields down)
Equities - UP
WTF?!
it means the shit is going to hit the fan but the dumb phucks in equities, as usual, haven't figured it out yet.
Gold and the dollar can't be both up simultaneously. Gold up = dollar down.
When you say dollar up, you must mean relative to other failed fiat currencies. Sure, that could happen, when the world is engaged in simulataneous currency destruction, the DXY could go to 200. Doesn't mean gold won't go to $5000 at the same time.
> Gold up = dollar down.
Usually, but not necessarily. However, when gold and dollar both move up, it means the deflationary trading: reducing the risks and getting out into the hard assets
In this case, both equities and silver (risky assets for inflationary trading) should both fall, and the gold/silver ratio (GSR) should rise. Just compare GSR and VIX to see what I'm talking about.
But who in his right mind would buy up both "risky" and "safe haven" assets ?? Well, to me this proves that no real human being are left over there except fearless Cybergs :))
+1. dollar and gold were both strong at the end of he 2008 crash. that's deflationary risk avoidance. Senior currency is always tough in deflations. Keep in mind that credit is money- and private credit(decimated) is 12 x bigger than public credit and printing.
Gold can not be up while dollar is up. You can't say dollar is up relative to something else and be up relative to the dollar. You're in the wrong reference frame.
I think the most noteworthy of the divergences today is the Dollar/ Oil/ Gold (commodities in general). Recent uptick was perceived as just a big joke (wasn’t it supposed to be?). When I saw the backing of ECB’s JCT in the morning (especially the comment on reserve currency) I said ok this finally might be it ;-)
On the HFTs, boy, feels like whenever you are numb enough to take a position, these things take off chasing you like a hungry horde of uighurian tribe under the big Mongolian kirghiz khan’s elite forces command (“God” forbid). I think I’m getting the hang of it though, been scalping the sh:t out of ‘em especially in the past two “up” [yours GS] weeks (stomach my braggin’ while it lasts – Almost feels like I am perhaps among the last ones in the flesh out there;-). Crawled back to the side licking my wounds and sharpening my spears for the EIA saga tomorrow. Cheers fella’s [survivors].
> ...these things take off chasing you
My feelings exactly!
Good points HedgeRoulette.
Boiled down to its base elements ... HFT predatory algo's, which are distinctly different from the Pip Hunter family / type of program, are basically just using what THEY know YOU are using to help screw you by forcing your "technical" trade based on specific paramters.
This list of burnt "strategies" is so long and glowingly radioactive that it makes Derek Jeter's burnt umber Ford Fusion look like Sammy Sosa's pigmentation.
A quick list of basic (crappy) 'strategies,' which kill retail traders and boutique firms alike include: VWAP (lol), TICK divergence, ADD / VOLD / TICK vs VIX third derivative ratios, intra-day trendlines, any Bill O'Neil pattern, intra-bar stop hunts where a candle's wick triggers obvious sell / buy stops but its real body closes well away from the assumed line of demarcation, Elliott Wave by its lonesome, ANY default indicator / oscillator settings, and that just barely scratches the surface of a basic central component or simple conditional filter. Low volume baby trend days like today typically crush retail speculators and options traders who aren't looking for a high probability scalp of 0.5 to 1.25 ES points or a dime within the Q's and CL but rather a swing trade of 50 - 100 YM points or 2-5 points on Goldilocks and Gurgle.
Gold, oil, dollar, treasuries, stocks all up today!! WHEEE!!!!:)) Let's do this everyday!!! WHEEEEE!!!!
Gold, oil, dollar, treasuries, stocks all up today!! WHEE!!!!:)) Let's do this everyday!!! WHEEE!!!!:))
The whole of it is a scam, a joke, a FARCE. And that is why this rally ends in utter disaster; that is why this rally should not be; that is why government sachs needs to be shut down, it's executive sweet and henchmen sent to prison.
Year end bonuses first....
THEN market crashes and FAS 166/167 implosions 2nd...
Then new year bailouts for all!
As Jamie and JPM are so busy with rosy employment and GDP forecasts... who needs to waste $200 billion on a "jobs" program... Hey American public, Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blank-dick have a "jobs" bill for you right here...
Timmay's Aunt Lloyd and Uncle Jamie will elbow any stupid jobs talk out with some new Wall Street bailout talk... but that is next year...
After year end bonuses of course...
Yeah, if I had to guess, I think we'll see one more short, sharp shakeout, another rally, then, things start to fall apart shortly after the start of the new year.
agreed!
agreed!
I've been hearing this ALL year.
am sayin'
am sayin'
am sayin'
am sayin'
am sayin'
am sayin'
am sayin'
am sayin'
Thanks for all of that, DESK-JOCKEY. That's the most action this market has seen in weeks!
just for kicks I entered some large orders on the shortside, out of trade range, in order to watch the robots do the freak over human flesh in the water; canceled out before they could eat me.
On days like today, the sole purpose is trap and hold day traders, who typically want out by days end. Once the day trader(s) covers, the alogos sell off (usually after hours).
How can any technical indicator be taken seriously in an environment like this?
" How can any technical indicator be taken seriously in an environment like this? "
When you use default settings on garbage 'indicators' that are little more than lagging, coincident squiggly lines without rigorously defined methodology ... instead of employing extensively researched indicators/oscillators within a comprehensive systematic approach, you get what you put in: very, very little.
TRADING IS AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT PROBABILISTIC ENDEAVOR THAT REQUIRES TECHNICAL SKILL AND EMOTIONAL DISCIPLINE AT THE VERY MINIMUM. EVEN A GREAT TRADER WITH EXCELLENT ANALYSIS, RESOURCES, TOOLS, TECHNIQUES, STRATEGIES, PLANS, CONTINGENCIES, AND EXPLICITLY DEFINED RULES FOR MANAGING RISK EXPOSURE IS OFTEN WRONG. THERE ALWAYS REMAIN REAL AND UNQUANTIFIABLE RISKS SUCH AS GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION OF RULE / LAW CHANGES. RISK PREVENTION MEASURES SUCH AS STOPS MAY NOT PREVENT FROM THE RISK OF GAP OPENINGS OR LOCK-LIMIT MOVES.
A dry, boring disclaimer but still a simple underlying truth within it. There is NO such thing as a guaranty, read Mark Douglas' "Trading in the Zone."
That said, much like a job, health care, personal hygiene, idiosyncratic grammar or a clue as to how financial markets operate ... TA is simply not for everyone.
So true on the zombie computer algos rapidly chaning bid asks in a flash. Can this s%$# meltdown the market with some cyber attack?
zh has previously published articles on this matter.
Or you could do the smart thing and buy Gold instead...
Because .... ?
How's filming going GG?
...it is the most undervalued asset on the planet right now?
...the strongest currency known to man?
...unlimited money printing by corrupt central banks?
...it can't be created out of thin air unlike paper assets which y'all love so much?
I could go on for as long as you want.
I'm in the South (United States) and I got a chuckle at reading your usage of "y'all". Do you use that in London? Just curious. I also read your posts with Michael Douglas's voice and I couldn't hear him saying, "y'all". It was mildly surreal.
LOL! I just love the southern accent, which is why I have a bit of fun with it from time to time. BTW, what gives you the idea I'm a Londoner?
GG, I thought I had read that before. If I am wrong, I apologize. I love your posts, mostly because you write as if it were Michael Douglas portraying Gordon Gekko. It's like I can hear it so vividly in my head. That's why I had to bother you about the "y'all". I'm listening to Gordon Gekko and Andie MacDowell is interrupting....
P.S. I work with a guy nicknamed "Bubba" and he has the most extravagantly gay southern gentleman drawl. It would bowl you over...
Glad to see I'm not the only person who can't read G_G's posts without superimposing the voice of Michael Douglas. Given his extremely blunt yet totally refined diction (not to mention his top-notch insight), I read EVERYTHING that G_G posts.
I'm glad "y'all" find my comments interesting :-) Just calling 'em like I see 'em.
G_G, say it ain't so! Don't tell me that you're retiring your iconic avatar?! Your posts won't "sound" the same without it.
[Updated] Nevermind. False alarm. Carry on. Nothing to see here.
well said GG and hat's off for the quick reply.
1) didn't go UP nearly as much as the rest of the CRB components, so, doesn't 'need' to crash as much in order to heal
2) undoubtedly the firmest precious metal and currency alternative. that said, it is not currency but rather a an alternative version of such
3) there is NOT unlimited printing and cmon, corrupt cb's ... there is actually rather little printing to be honest, considering two things: a) targeted credits to financial intermediaries; b) -6.7 to -7.3% q/o/q & y/o/y contraction in the velocity of M2 within the US
4) it can't be created out of thin air; that said it is just a tad over-loved here, which says nothing about either the short / intermediate term of 1-3 months or the intermediate / long term of 3+ years
Appreciate the friendly back n forth GG. Talk atcha' babe!
now, now, let the boy talk up his book
Punish the Day Trader and reward the Swing Trader.
Get with the program.
Am I correct to think that the screencap indicates that, for all trading days to current in November 2009, $52M more shares were sold on a downtick than an uptick? Do I have that right? Anybody who knows? Very curious.
Smoke and mirrors...
Smoke and mirrors...
The
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went down
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went down to
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went down to Goldman,
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went down to Goldman, looking
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went down to Goldman, looking for
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went down to Goldman, looking for a
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went down to Goldman, looking for a soul
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went down to Goldman, looking for a soul to
Smoke and mirrors...
The Devil went down to Goldman, looking for a soul to steal...
Sorry about the multiple posts...Goldman does NOT like to be ridiculed...Just a little HFP...( High Frequency Posting)
hahaha ... awesome!
Yeah, definitely awesome! Glad to see someone putting their SPARC to work on something REALLY meaningful.
What else functions on no volume? Timmy's testicles?
Nahhh
NOW THATS what I CALL a quant puking BARFORAMA. Everybody sitting down at the pie eating contest trying to eat up their piece of the pie and then it happens. The barforama!!!
I'm lovin' those tungsten filled gold bars. I think I'll shred some tungsten on my Cheerios. Don't know what else to do with the stuff.