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NOAA - Record Hot Water

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

Some not so good news from NOAA. Global water temperatures are now at record levels.  Hot water means strong storms. Last week Cyclone Morakot hit Taiwan and killed 500 people. The storm hit land with winds of  80mph, a  modest Cat 2. It produced rainfall in excess of 6 feet in 24 hours. Two feet in 24 hours will cause devastating floods.

 

noaa.png

 

Morakot just before it hit Taiwan. It was a very big storm.

morakot.png

 

Rain caused heavy damage in Taiwan. Later the storm crossed into China and brought more flooding.
marokothotel.png

 

There is lots of hot water in the Gulf of Mexico. If one of these storms develops in the Gulf and heads West to the oil/gas fields the price of crude will jump.

atlanticstorms.png

 

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Sun, 08/16/2009 - 23:04 | 38444 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Bruce - congrats on the call. You nailed it before the lab rats did two weeks ago. BTW, I was swimming in the gulf this past week and it is toasty warm. Warmer than anytime I can remember (and the weather tems are not at extremes). Good stuff. Thanks.

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 22:52 | 38440 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Someone should edit the top hotel photo with some green shoots and Bernanke leaning out the window yelling to Timo about how great the room service is :D

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 22:23 | 38430 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

38292-I have not been to any church in 40 years, so that's a non starter. I just said the water was hot. It is, read the report. You're the one bringing up global warming, not me.

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 22:13 | 38419 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

38352-No, no contradiction. Atlantic temps are lower and Gulf Temps are warmer. This plus the existance of El Nino makes the risk from Atlantic based storms lower, but ones that develop close to home are what worry me. The water temp at mid Gulf station 42001 reached 87.3 degrees this afterenoon. It has never been hotter. See:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

 

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 22:10 | 38416 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

38352-No, no contradiction. Atlantic temps are lower and Gulf Temps are warmer. This plus the existance of El Nino makes the risk from Atlantic based storms lower, but ones that develop close to home are what worry me. The water temp at mid Gulf station 42001 reached 87.3 degrees this afterenoon. It has never been hotter. See:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

 

Mon, 08/17/2009 - 13:12 | 38407 kidSmart (not verified)
Sun, 08/16/2009 - 20:18 | 38353 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

In the same page NOAA says: July Temperature Below-Average for the U.S. "The July 2009 temperature for the contiguous United States was below the long-term average, based on records going back to 1895, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
The average July temperature of 73.5 degrees F was 0.8 degrees F below the 20th century average. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in July averaged 2.90 inches, which is 0.14 inches above the 1901-2000 average."

Also they said that "According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop."

Kind of contradicting isn't it?

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 20:17 | 38352 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

In the same page NOAA says: July Temperature Below-Average for the U.S. "The July 2009 temperature for the contiguous United States was below the long-term average, based on records going back to 1895, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
The average July temperature of 73.5 degrees F was 0.8 degrees F below the 20th century average. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in July averaged 2.90 inches, which is 0.14 inches above the 1901-2000 average."

Also they said that "According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop."

Kind of contradicting isn't it?

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 18:42 | 38320 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

While Taiwan is getting flooded, there is a lack of sufficient hot water in the Indian Ocean. This has led to fears of drought among Indian farmers and food inflation.

http://debtsofanation.blogspot.com/2009/08/debts-of-lenders-india-begins...

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 16:55 | 38292 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This is nothing but a scare piece by a global warming religious advocate. This in fact has been an extremely quiet hurricane season, following what was an extremely quiet tornado season. Could we have a major hurricane this year? Perhaps. Is it due to global ocean warming? Bullshit.

Mon, 08/17/2009 - 04:22 | 38518 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And in other news...

Non-scientists finally have proof that heavier-than-air flight is impossible.

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 15:59 | 38280 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

So far, natural gas prices have staged an all out collapse in what must be the biggest uninterrrupted decline in a commodity price history.  Now at multi-year lows, most likely at world record lows when adjusted for inflation.

Natural gas is now down 7 days in a row, yesterday's decline was on blowout volume.

 

 

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 16:11 | 38284 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Can you give a brief analysis as to the disconnect between oil and natural gas prices... I know oil has the refining process which can create a kink in the production line if it is unable to support the demand... so what are your perspectives?

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 19:43 | 38340 Steak
Steak's picture

Just this guy's two cents.  But natural gas is a regional commodity, with very little international trade in the good.  That is changing with LNG but it will be some time before that market matures.  With the recent advent of horizontal drilling (like 5 yrs old) the US market finds itself floating on an ocean of nat gas, hence the price deflation.  Oil is THE global commodity so it is sensitive to news/supply issues anywhere in the world.

Fri, 09/11/2009 - 23:20 | 67258 Broken_Trades
Broken_Trades's picture

Horizontal drilling has been around for ages.

 

I think you mean the new fracing techniques to get gas out of hard sandstone and shale is only 5 years old.

 

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 22:20 | 38426 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Hey thanks...

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 12:45 | 38195 zeropointfield (not verified)
zeropointfield's picture

I am not so sure that this would present a problem in terms of more or more devastating hurricans/typhoons as long as water temperature rises everywhere (i.e. the rise is global). I would expect more problems if the rise in temperature is (much) stronger in certain locations than in others.
However, rising oceant temperatures would pose other issues, not least for the the wildlife and in the end for humans as well.

As a side note: At least the names are predictable:

http://krotovajanora.wordpress.com/2009/05/09/four-hurricane-names-retir...

 

Mon, 08/17/2009 - 04:18 | 38516 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It actually doesn't work that way with hurricanes. They are not driven by temp gradients, but by the energy produced from condensation. They are warm-core storms.

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 11:58 | 38165 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Time to buy UNG?

Sun, 08/16/2009 - 22:55 | 38438 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

UNG has no chance IMO. One report I read not to long ago noted that UNG price action really relies on the forward price being in contango. That is when the moves up occur. With demand falling, oversupply, production cuts and the current economic situation I do not see significant price moves for some time. You can play the 10 to 20% pops just fine but nothing more significant will happen IMO.

UNG is in a bottoming process that will take some time. UNG formed a falling wedge while breaking the major downward trendline. This wedge needs to play out.

Here is a blog post I did with charts.

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/08/ung-time.html

Or see 60m, daily and weekly charts here:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s172835572]&disp=P

Mon, 08/17/2009 - 13:12 | 38408 kidSmart (not verified)
Sun, 08/16/2009 - 11:58 | 38164 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Time to buy UNG?

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