NOAA Warns Of Widespread Upcoming Flooding, Cautions 2011 Could Rival Great Flood Of 1993

Tyler Durden's picture

Don't sell those corn futures just yet. Despite last week's surprising announcement by the USDA that there has been much more expansive planting of corn, and other crops, than expected, which in turn set the price of corn tumbling by the most in years, one thing the USDA did not specify is whether said plantings are currently underwater. And if not now, how about in a week or two. Because according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the floods America has experienced so far are nothing compared to what may be coming. "Many rivers in the upper Midwest and northern Plains remain above flood stage, and the threat for more flooding will continue through the summer, forecasters at NOAA’s National Weather Service said today. With rivers running high and soils completely saturated, just a small amount of rain could trigger more flooding, including areas that have already seen major to record flooding. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-normal rain in most of these vulnerable areas in the next two weeks, and above-normal rainfall in much of the region in the one- and three-month outlooks. Adding to the flood threat will be the rising temperatures over the Rockies, which will release the water from the remaining snowpack. “The sponge is fully saturated – there is nowhere for any additional water to go,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While unusual for this time of year, all signs point to the flood threat continuing through summer. Forecasters say this season could rival the Great Flood of 1993, when the upper Midwest endured persistent, record-breaking floods from April through August, impacting nine states and causing more than $25 billion in damages (adjusted for inflation)." If indeed this occurs, look for corn, and other softs, to surge to few all time highs, just in time for the much anticipated collapse in food prices to never happen.

The NOAA qualifies the highest flood risk areas as follows:

  • North Central U.S. including Souris River (North Dakota) and
    Red River of the North (border of North Dakota and Minnesota),
    Minnesota River (Minnesota), Upper Mississippi River (Minnesota and
    Iowa), and Des Moines River (Iowa)
  • Lower Missouri River from Gavin’s Point (Nebraska and South
    Dakota border) downstream along the border of Nebraska and Iowa,
    continuing through the borders of Kansas and Missouri then through
    Missouri to the Mississippi River
  • Tributaries to the Lower Missouri including the James and Big Sioux Rivers in North Dakota
  • Lower Ohio River Valley including the White, Wabash and lower Ohio River
  • East of Rockies: North Platte River in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska and Yellowstone River in Wyoming and Montana
  • West of Rockies: Utah and Colorado

In other words, virtually all. Expect to see a corn upgrade from Goldman as soon as the firm has completed accumulating its own warehouses