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The Nokia/Microsoft Alliance & Android’s Commoditization Of The Mobile Computing Platform…

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

The Nokia/Microsoft Marriage via Force of Android team up is
definitely a plus for Nokia despite the appearance that Microsoft
ex-management is moving heavily into company. Nokia probably makes some
of the best hardware around, but there OS game has been lacking for
some time. The only real unaddressed issue is that Elop never addressed
the real reason why he didn’t adopt Android, and the MSFT alliance
doesn’t address it either. Reference this quote from Endgadget:

Nokia did talk with Google about adopting
Android but decided that it “would have difficulty differentiating
within that ecosystem” and the “commoditization risk was very high —
prices, profits, everything being pushed down, value being moved out to
Google which was concerning to us.” Microsoft presented the best
option for Nokia to resume the fight in the high end smarpthone
segment.”

Elop goes further, recognizing what I have been saying for about a year now, and that is Google/Android is at the forefront of the mobile computing wars – Nokia: ‘Our first priority is beating Android.
Again, I query, how is Elop going to do that if he is afraid to
commoditize the platform? Android is commoditizing the whole
smartphone space, not just the low end. If anything, the pressure on the
high end is heavier. Look at the Evo and Samsung Galaxy series phones
and how they are so much more capable than the iPhone
for the same price. Then you have the next gen of phones available
next month, ex. the Atrix and LG 1080p, 3D, dual core and quad core
phones. If you haven’t seen this tech, I strongly suggest you read ,
it’s impressive. This tech is moving lightning fast and the price
points aren’t budging, although the margins are collapsing in this fast
moving space.

How is Elop going to address this by using Windows
OS? He has to do more than just charge more, he has to produce better
product at competitive prices, which keep getting lower. Elop will have
to license the Widows OS, which is an expense, one that he would bear
to nearly no extent if he used Android. I feel he mistakenly
looks at this as Google commoditizing the Android platform, in lieu of
the more reasonable perspective of Google commoditizing the entire
portable computer space. They can do this because they benefit
regardless, as long as the masses are moved to the cloud. See
  1. Android Now Outselling iOS? Explaining the Game of Chess That Google Plays in the Smart Phone Space
Apple has already acknowledged the need to address
this issue by attempting to gain some control in the lower end of the
market, and is planning a low cost iPhone which will be guaranteed to end in margin compression, just as I forecast (A Glimpse of the BoomBustBlog Internal Discussion Concerning the Fate of Apple and Apple on the Margin).
I can potentially see Nokia attempting to leverage the Microsoft
ecosystem, taking advantage of MSFT perks such as integration of WP7
into Kinect and Xbox 360,
but Sony can and is doing the same with the Playstation phone and
Playstation franchise, but probably doing it cheaper on Android – thus
able to cut prices aggressively if push came to shove, otherwise known
as margin compression.

Those interested on an objective take on Apple in this heated contest should reference Apple Gears Up To Combat The Margin Compression That Apparently Only It, Google & Reggie Middleton Sees Coming.


 

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Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:54 | 967542 technovelist
technovelist's picture

Microsoft is unable to make money from anything other than their ancient O/S code and Office. Everything else they do is either irrelevant to their bottom line, or loses great gobs of money. Their so-called "senior leadership team" is a pathetic bunch of losers... who collect great sums of money for running the company into the ground.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:47 | 967267 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Times are strange indeed when the once super hot Euro Bond girl is forced to couple with what is rapidly appearing to be Bond’s most feeble former foe.

Really...how about cell phones with frickin’ lasers?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh7bYNAHXxw

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:58 | 967316 flacorps
flacorps's picture

He's not Bond's foe, he's Gru's foe.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:33 | 967458 palmereldritch
Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:42 | 967237 Dionysus
Dionysus's picture

Is it just me, or is half of this article made up of duplicated paragraphs?

 

Edit: Looks like it was fixed.  :)

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:33 | 967192 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

There's lots of unrealised potential in both Nokia current markets and in Windows client-base; for me the problem has to be that in realising that potential, MSFt will have to step down several rungs on it's position on IP. Otherwise Google will, as you commoditize the space. worth watching.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:24 | 967144 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Interesting. The stock market had been treating microsoft like a utility. I have to wonder if microsoft can bounce back. Yeah I think android may ultimately be the winner but i do hate its bugs and huge power consumption with utilities (spyware) constantly running in the background and autosynch being such an energy hog

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:31 | 967181 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

You can easily cut those things off in the settings options. With a few tweaks and an extended battery, I get two to three days from my Evo of real use, and can't kill it in a work day, even with 4G tethering.

The regular battery will offer a full days worth of juice.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:55 | 967303 flacorps
flacorps's picture

My Evo is toast by 5PM, and I have 3rd party wall chargers and cigarette lighter adapters that aren't giving it enough juice, especially if it is already low on power. The HTc wall adapter is the only thing that really can cut it ... Reggie, I have no idea what you're using for a battery ... maybe they slipped you a nuclear beta battery without telling you. I'm just sayin' (and not really to slam the Evo--you can't pry it from my cold dead fingers, which was also how I felt about my Palm Treo 720w [windows]).

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:21 | 967419 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Root your phone and install Myn's custom ROM and a SBC HAVS netatchy kernel. If you don't want to get all nerd on me, then just buy Juice Defender for $4, configure it and buy a 3500mah LiPo battery (available from Bestbuy.com for about $60 or other places for less). Your battery is dying because background services on the phone are running without your knowing it or needing it. Juice defender cuts them on and off intelligently, dynamically, and autonomously and the battery is powerful enough to power a full 17 inch laptop. The combination of the two will easily push your phone into more than a days worth of heavy use. As a matter of fact, you can get 3 days of very light use out of it.

The custom roms and kernels do even more to save power, but granted you have to be willing to play with your phone.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:40 | 967241 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Hey Reggie, thought you might like to see this http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/oukin-uk-apple-subscriptions-idUKTRE71E3D020110215

Apple is going to kill their own business by trying to monopolize all the apps on the iphone.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:20 | 967088 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

WP7 is an impressive OS, fully cloud ready, and the next update to it is only weeks away. IMHO it is better than Android and of course mApple (h/t Simpsons).

Disclosure: My first phone was a Nokia/Radio Shack 'handheld', then a Motorola 8000H (fondly called the Brick Phone), then too many others over the years to list here. Current main cell phone is a Samsung Focus with WP7 and works great worldwide.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:27 | 967158 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

WP7 is an impressive OS, fully cloud ready, and the next update to it is only weeks away.

Do you mean the 7th version of the Windows Phone is still feature incomplete, with essentials like copy & paste only "weeks away" and with absolute essentials like proper multitasking not even implemented?

Pathetic.

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:52 | 967291 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

iPhone was extremely pathetic upon the release. Took them years (not a handful of months) to add those features you mentioned. Also, with mApple you are stuck with their hardware, unlike WP7 and Android where you have many choices/manufacturers.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:36 | 967466 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

iPhone was extremely pathetic upon the release.

On the contrary, 4 years ago the first version of the iPhone was a smashing success with customers. If you ever held one in your hand, the features blew away the mind. If it had limitations it was mostly hardware related.

Fast forward 4 years and witness Microsoft, in 2011, on contemporary hardware, copying all the early mistakes of the iPhone and trying hard not to implement its features :-)

Customers and NOK shareholders are reacting accordingly: the 7th version of the Windows Phone is a dud too and the Nokia stock price is down 20%+.

In phone shops you will be offered "2 WP7s for the price of one!" discounts. (Hint: 2 for 1 discounts are common with rolls of low grade toilet paper, not with successful consumer electronics products.)

Today there are two things that blow away the mind: the level of growth of Android and the level of incompetence at Microsoft.

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 15:21 | 967654 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

So true. Does anyone remember Microsoft's first smartphone attempt? It was set for introduction in 2001 over the objections of HPaq engineers who designed the hardware. the hardware was fine, but the software was so poorly done, one of Steve Ballmer's first decisions as CEO was to cancel the project and fire the program managers. Their screw-ups cost MSFT shareholders over $400M. The phones were buried in a landfill.

From what I can see, not much has changed at MSFT during the past ten years.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 12:49 | 966936 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

"puny humans! we will destroy you with our technology and our efficiency. your fate is sealed. resistance is futile."-- HFT9000

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:32 | 967455 covert
covert's picture

cell phones used to be ok, what happened?

http://covert2.wordpress.com

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:19 | 967120 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

...

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:12 | 967083 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Android will kick your ass. As soon as it's done charging. Or if it gets tired and has to recharge during the fight. But rest assured no matter how many charges it takes. Your ass is grass.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 13:20 | 967123 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Indeed Elop will be the first puny human kicked by Android :-)

As the article points it out:

How is Elop going to address this by using Windows OS? He has to do more than just charge more, he has to produce better product at competitive prices, which keep getting lower. Elop will have to license the Widows OS, which is an expense, one that he would bear to nearly the same extent if he used Android. I feel he mistakenly looks at this as Google commoditizing the Android platform, in lieu of the more reasonable perspective of Google commoditizing the entire portable computer space.

Another problem Nokia and Microsoft has: they have now combined two fading markets - both with their own set of problems, none of which problems was "we were too small".

How increasing their size and doubling their problems will improve the situation is hard to see - two turds are still turd. Windows Phone is now in its 7th version - and each prior version was a dud. Why would version 7 or 8 be any different?

The other problem Nokia has is that in the unlikely event that somehow tens of millions of consumers throw away their iPhones and Droids, there are a lot of other companies with a Windows Phone product on the sidelines (HTC, Samsung) which would compete with Nokia in that space, the moment it made sense economically. Nokia has no advantage in that space whatsoever.

So it's difficult to see what Steve Ballmer was thinking when he sent Elop as a Trojan horse to Nokia. Probably something along the lines of: 'Lets try anything, ANYTHING to have a shot at hurting Google, they are killing us in the marketplace!'. Ballmer is risking a spectacular failure by doing that - it really smells of desperation.

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 14:31 | 967454 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

so true, bigger does not make better ...the only then size gets you is a good apps market,  and that IS critical to the succecss of these products, but I don't see Nokia and MS necessary pouncing on that...and two big institutions like that are not going to meld quickly...even if Windows mobile is a great OS.... Palm had a great OS but was too small and now it seems too late...

Motorola went Android and may see margins compressing...but if they had not gone Android???? Nokia should have developed a kick ass smart phone OS and beautiful smart phones to go with them 5 years ago or gone in with RIM 5 years ago...and they would be able to compete with Android, but now, too late...they should have just gone Android too, best they could do at this point.

To me its going to be all about the apps and have developers willing and very motivated to develop apps for your OS/hardware...90 percent of what people today do on laptops, desktops is going to go thru small mobile computers in our hands, or hooked to a big screen/keyboard when stationary, the OS's are going to be all about mobile apps...and there will be a whole bunch more things people will do with smart phones they are not doing now, like paying for things at physical store, recieving e-docs from a sales guy, financial guy or doctor instead of being handed printed literature etc...

Already, in very simple things (that have not even touched the power of these devices when everyone is using them) I find my out-dated smart phone android OS way better than my desktop experience...checking email from multiple sources on phone easier than desktop, checking weather, finding movie, buying music, buying a game....the OSs on desktops are becoming more like mobile, more integrated, more seamless, more automatic, better flow...look at pads...even Apple is changing their desktops to be more like the Ipad.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 15:27 | 967676 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Remember, Android and iOS have about 500k apps combined, probably less than 2/3rds than that of Windows. What MSFT has to do is learn to compete on the new Internet time. If they can find a way to catch the synergy, even I would gladly re-adopt the MSFT platform.

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