Non Farm Payroll Number Collapses, Goldman Last Minute Adjustment Right On Money As Usual
Where to start here: A horrendous September NFP number coming in at -263,000 versus -175,000 consensus; numerous prior period revisions, demonstrating just how clueless the BLS is in this volatile environment; unemployment at a 25 year record 9.8%; a once again dropping work week (33 hours vs. 33.1 prior), slowing growth in average hourly earnings at 0.1% vs. 0.4% in August, or, most relevantly, how on Earth did Goldman know to increase its NFP estimates by 25% less than 24 hours ago, to a number so much more aligned with reality: does Jan Hatzius have a direct, unrecorded line to a BLS "janitor"? Or does he just like keeping his clients in suspense until the 11th hour on what the truth really is? Inquiring minds want to know.
And real unemployment (U-6%) has just hit 17%: now this is Non Farm Payroll change you can truly believe in.