Non Farm Payroll Number Collapses, Goldman Last Minute Adjustment Right On Money As Usual

Tyler Durden's picture

Where to start here: A horrendous September NFP number coming in at -263,000 versus -175,000 consensus; numerous prior period revisions, demonstrating just how clueless the BLS is in this volatile environment; unemployment at a 25 year record 9.8%; a once again dropping work week (33 hours vs. 33.1 prior), slowing growth in average hourly earnings at 0.1% vs. 0.4% in August, or, most relevantly, how on Earth did Goldman know to increase its NFP estimates by 25% less than 24 hours ago, to a number so much more aligned with reality: does Jan Hatzius have a direct, unrecorded line to a BLS "janitor"? Or does he just like keeping his clients in suspense until the 11th hour on what the truth really is? Inquiring minds want to know.

And real unemployment (U-6%) has just hit 17%: now this is Non Farm Payroll change you can truly believe in.

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Was it a sneak peak or did they look at the ADP numbers and recalculate their own projections?

Does a bear shit in the woods?

MyKillK's picture

ADP numbers never seem to be very close to the BLS numbers...

mitack's picture


Depends whether someone is looking or not - right ?


mdtrader's picture

Work force shrank by 571,000 as well.

Miles Kendig's picture

Green shoots run headlong into the unforgiving wall called objective circumstances.

MinnesotaNice's picture

I guess the 'recession is over' until its NOT...

Miles Kendig's picture

True enough.  BTW, I found some potential money honey's for you.  Let me know when you want to review the potential applicant pool.

Have a great day MnN.

MinnesotaNice's picture

Are you 'Layne' with a name change... same picture different name...

Miles Kendig's picture

Indeed.  Miles Kendig is very much more me and my history.  Layne is power to the voice.

Marla has been more than kind.

MinnesotaNice's picture

Thank you... that has been bugging me...

MinnesotaNice's picture

And BTW... I still have a bone to pick with you about that "your generation", "my generation"... thing... but I will catch you on an open thread or Radio Zero  :-)

Miles Kendig's picture

Peace.    All Apologies are due.  Accept?

If you really feel the need to unload write to me, mileskendigatlivedotcom from an anon and I will be more than happy to address your concerns.

LoneStarHog's picture

The Bogus Birth/Death Model ADDED 303,000 Phantom Jobs !!!!!

LoneStarHog's picture

I sent ONE HUNDRED continuous e-mails with this in the Subject Line to CNBS telling them to cover this - NOTHING!  I do this EVERY month.

Subject Line:  COVER THIS:  The Bogus Birth/Death Model ADDED 303,000 PHANTOM Jobs -- COVER THIS!

Anonymous's picture

that's because everyone there has a bogus job

Art Vandelay's picture

You've read the chart wrong.

The B/D adjustment added "only" 34,000 jobs.

Check it out here:

Handle with care's picture

I was watching that at the end of last year and the beginning of the year and shaking my head in disbelief as they listed 50k NEW jobs in CONSTRUCTION each month.


WWell, very very late but the reality finally comes to light


"The Labor Department today also published its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls that will be issued in February. They showed the economy may have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in the 12 months ended March 2009. The data currently show a 4.8 million drop in employment during that time.


The projected decrease was three times larger than the historical average, the Labor Department said. Most of the drop occurred in the first quarter of this year, probably due to an increase in business closings, the government said."


dumbquant's picture

is there a formula these guys use for the birth/death model?  or do they just pull it out of thin air?  I cant even begin to tell u how many businesses to small to count in the NFP pop up recently & go on a major hiring sprees/

Anonymous's picture

the model is based on the formula from china; they were adding a mysterious substance to bring their costs down and push the death rate up. you had to first warm it up and then suck out of a bottle thru a nipple like device. they were aiming for the fed but got newborns instead. the accidental benefit was fewer newnorns to count and a more benefical b/d rate.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The B/D model was introduced 9 years ago to supposedly help the BLS cope with the lag in counting job creation and destruction by small businesses.

At least that's the cover story. In reality, it's been a tool of manipulation bar none since the BLS became totally politicized in the 70's.

chinaguy's picture

The BLS web site only lists total B/D adjustment @ 34K, not 303K

molecool's picture

Don't mess with tex - hey, where can I find official stats on that - would love to post it on ES. Email me at admin at evilspeculator dot com. Cheers - Mole

deadhead's picture

mole...i love your site.  hope to see more of you at zh.

deadhead's picture

lest we forget about the old revisions game...

"The government revised job losses for July and August to show 13,000 more jobs lost than previously reported."

deadhead's picture

excellent and thanks for posting that Andy.

deadhead's picture

yep, thanks.

will watch tape for the 10 a.m. numbers show.

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Andy, the ladies love it when you talk dirty with those charts.;)

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

I meant "dirty" in a sexy kinda way.

Whizbang's picture

Holy crap, almost 1/5 either unemployed or working at Mcdonalds!? Good thing we dropped 800B on that stimulus package.

JohnKing's picture

Feed the parasites and hope the host recovers.

MinnesotaNice's picture

Hey... but we got some really nice new roads out of the whole deal... I was driving by one of the signs that they put on the roads that are under construction courtesy of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act... and someone had graffitied the sign that said Project Funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act... and instead altered it to read Project Funded by AMERICANS   :-)

glenlloyd's picture

the signs alone probably cost a billion.

MinnesotaNice's picture

You are likely correct... looked it up... each signmaker is paid $2700/sign... and there are oodles of signs all across the country... couple of articles out there about how the stimulus is helping the signmakers...

Miles Kendig's picture

And I thought the federal prison industries, UNICOR was going to get that contract since they make so many road signs already.  Their pay scale is a bit lower.....

Anonymous's picture

i think a billion is at least an order of magnitude high... you'd need an average of around 10000 signs per state for a cost of billion dollars... i think 1000 per state would be a more reasonable estimate, putting the total cost somewhere between $100 and $150 million

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Actually I know numerous people who HATE our political system even more, thanks to construction caused traffic jams on road that totally did not need it. Hey thanks Congress. NOT.

Señor Tranche's picture

more than 1/5, actually.  See for some un-gimmicked numbers. 

mdtrader's picture

Jesus what are the real numbers, are we still losing 500,000-700,000 jobs a month in the real world?

ratava's picture

what is this real world you speak of sir

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If you want something closer to "real" numbers, see John Williams at


Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Cd, I was just about to say that. I wish shadow dude would wrie here once in a while.

MyKillK's picture

I saw on Denniger that if 825,000 is the final number, that that would chip off an average of 70,000 more jobs per month over that 12 year period. From what I've read, the October preliminary number is usually pretty accurate relative to the final number in February.

Anonymous's picture

It reminds me of "Hunt for Red October" the missle is coming right back at us.

Anonymous's picture

/When does the state-by-state data come out

Bolweevil's picture

"The only reason the jobless rate didn’t rise more is that the participation rate [in the survey] sank to 23-year lows of 65.2 per cent, a sign of growing discouragement," BMO economist Sal Guatieri said in a note"

California 12.2% (lost 263,000 in Sept, 706,000 "discouraged" workers)

lets hope they're not armed