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Non Farm Payroll Number Collapses, Goldman Last Minute Adjustment Right On Money As Usual

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Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:49 | 86238 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Was it a sneak peak or did they look at the ADP numbers and recalculate their own projections?

Does a bear shit in the woods?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:29 | 86778 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

ADP numbers never seem to be very close to the BLS numbers...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 16:58 | 87002 mitack
mitack's picture

HAHA ! GOOD ONE CD!

Depends whether someone is looking or not - right ?

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:51 | 86240 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Work force shrank by 571,000 as well.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:52 | 86241 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Green shoots run headlong into the unforgiving wall called objective circumstances.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:07 | 86267 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

I guess the 'recession is over' until its NOT...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:08 | 86372 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

True enough.  BTW, I found some potential money honey's for you.  Let me know when you want to review the potential applicant pool.

Have a great day MnN.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:10 | 86378 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Are you 'Layne' with a name change... same picture different name...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:21 | 86404 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Indeed.  Miles Kendig is very much more me and my history.  Layne is power to the voice.

Marla has been more than kind.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:23 | 86413 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Thank you... that has been bugging me...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:25 | 86416 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Thanks for asking.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:37 | 86436 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

And BTW... I still have a bone to pick with you about that "your generation", "my generation"... thing... but I will catch you on an open thread or Radio Zero  :-)

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:03 | 86462 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Peace.    All Apologies are due.  Accept?

If you really feel the need to unload write to me, mileskendigatlivedotcom from an anon and I will be more than happy to address your concerns.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:12 | 86483 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Accept  :-)

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:52 | 86242 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

The Bogus Birth/Death Model ADDED 303,000 Phantom Jobs !!!!!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:56 | 86246 Fruffing
Fruffing's picture

Good catch Tex!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:59 | 86252 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

I sent ONE HUNDRED continuous e-mails with this in the Subject Line to CNBS telling them to cover this - NOTHING!  I do this EVERY month.

Subject Line:  COVER THIS:  The Bogus Birth/Death Model ADDED 303,000 PHANTOM Jobs -- COVER THIS!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:03 | 86261 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

that's because everyone there has a bogus job

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:11 | 86381 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

That was funny.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:28 | 86505 Art Vandelay
Art Vandelay's picture

You've read the chart wrong.

The B/D adjustment added "only" 34,000 jobs.

Check it out here:

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:00 | 86257 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

I was watching that at the end of last year and the beginning of the year and shaking my head in disbelief as they listed 50k NEW jobs in CONSTRUCTION each month.

 

WWell, very very late but the reality finally comes to light

 

"The Labor Department today also published its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls that will be issued in February. They showed the economy may have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in the 12 months ended March 2009. The data currently show a 4.8 million drop in employment during that time.

 

The projected decrease was three times larger than the historical average, the Labor Department said. Most of the drop occurred in the first quarter of this year, probably due to an increase in business closings, the government said."

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a36j7g1xczCQ

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:24 | 86294 dumbquant
dumbquant's picture

is there a formula these guys use for the birth/death model?  or do they just pull it out of thin air?  I cant even begin to tell u how many businesses to small to count in the NFP pop up recently & go on a major hiring sprees/

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:43 | 86530 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

the model is based on the formula from china; they were adding a mysterious substance to bring their costs down and push the death rate up. you had to first warm it up and then suck out of a bottle thru a nipple like device. they were aiming for the fed but got newborns instead. the accidental benefit was fewer newnorns to count and a more benefical b/d rate.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:47 | 86331 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The B/D model was introduced 9 years ago to supposedly help the BLS cope with the lag in counting job creation and destruction by small businesses.

At least that's the cover story. In reality, it's been a tool of manipulation bar none since the BLS became totally politicized in the 70's.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:02 | 86359 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

The BLS web site only lists total B/D adjustment @ 34K, not 303K

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:10 | 86482 molecool
molecool's picture

Don't mess with tex - hey, where can I find official stats on that - would love to post it on ES. Email me at admin at evilspeculator dot com. Cheers - Mole

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:18 | 86489 deadhead
deadhead's picture

mole...i love your site.  hope to see more of you at zh.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:53 | 86243 deadhead
deadhead's picture

lest we forget about the old revisions game...

"The government revised job losses for July and August to show 13,000 more jobs lost than previously reported."

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:44 | 86327 deadhead
deadhead's picture

excellent and thanks for posting that Andy.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:51 | 86342 deadhead
deadhead's picture

yep, thanks.

will watch tape for the 10 a.m. numbers show.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:05 | 86364 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Andy, the ladies love it when you talk dirty with those charts.;)

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:18 | 86397 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

I meant "dirty" in a sexy kinda way.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:54 | 86244 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

Holy crap, almost 1/5 either unemployed or working at Mcdonalds!? Good thing we dropped 800B on that stimulus package.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:57 | 86250 Fruffing
Fruffing's picture

And 3.5T on Wall St.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:17 | 86391 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Feed the parasites and hope the host recovers.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:17 | 86279 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Hey... but we got some really nice new roads out of the whole deal... I was driving by one of the signs that they put on the roads that are under construction courtesy of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act... and someone had graffitied the sign that said Project Funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act... and instead altered it to read Project Funded by AMERICANS   :-)

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:40 | 86318 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

the signs alone probably cost a billion.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:54 | 86349 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

You are likely correct... looked it up... each signmaker is paid $2700/sign... and there are oodles of signs all across the country... couple of articles out there about how the stimulus is helping the signmakers...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:04 | 86362 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

And I thought the federal prison industries, UNICOR was going to get that contract since they make so many road signs already.  Their pay scale is a bit lower.....

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:24 | 86690 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

i think a billion is at least an order of magnitude high... you'd need an average of around 10000 signs per state for a cost of billion dollars... i think 1000 per state would be a more reasonable estimate, putting the total cost somewhere between $100 and $150 million

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:06 | 86366 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Actually I know numerous people who HATE our political system even more, thanks to construction caused traffic jams on road that totally did not need it. Hey thanks Congress. NOT.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:10 | 86380 Señor Tranche
Señor Tranche's picture

more than 1/5, actually.  See shadowstats.com for some un-gimmicked numbers. 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:57 | 86248 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Jesus what are the real numbers, are we still losing 500,000-700,000 jobs a month in the real world?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:08 | 86270 ratava
ratava's picture

what is this real world you speak of sir

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:49 | 86336 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If you want something closer to "real" numbers, see John Williams at www.shadowstats.com

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:07 | 86370 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Cd, I was just about to say that. I wish shadow dude would wrie here once in a while.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:33 | 86787 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

I saw on Denniger that if 825,000 is the final number, that that would chip off an average of 70,000 more jobs per month over that 12 year period. From what I've read, the October preliminary number is usually pretty accurate relative to the final number in February.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:57 | 86251 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It reminds me of "Hunt for Red October" the missle is coming right back at us.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:59 | 86254 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

/When does the state-by-state data come out

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:50 | 86546 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

"The only reason the jobless rate didn’t rise more is that the participation rate [in the survey] sank to 23-year lows of 65.2 per cent, a sign of growing discouragement," BMO economist Sal Guatieri said in a note"

California 12.2% (lost 263,000 in Sept, 706,000 "discouraged" workers)

lets hope they're not armed

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