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Non Farm Payroll Number Collapses, Goldman Last Minute Adjustment Right On Money As Usual

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Where to start here: A horrendous September NFP number coming in at -263,000 versus -175,000 consensus; numerous prior period revisions, demonstrating just how clueless the BLS is in this volatile environment; unemployment at a 25 year record 9.8%; a once again dropping work week (33 hours vs. 33.1 prior), slowing growth in average hourly earnings at 0.1% vs. 0.4% in August, or, most relevantly, how on Earth did Goldman know to increase its NFP estimates by 25% less than 24 hours ago, to a number so much more aligned with reality: does Jan Hatzius have a direct, unrecorded line to a BLS "janitor"? Or does he just like keeping his clients in suspense until the 11th hour on what the truth really is? Inquiring minds want to know.

And real unemployment (U-6%) has just hit 17%: now this is Non Farm Payroll change you can truly believe in.

 

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Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:49 | 86238 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Was it a sneak peak or did they look at the ADP numbers and recalculate their own projections?

Does a bear shit in the woods?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:29 | 86778 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

ADP numbers never seem to be very close to the BLS numbers...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 16:58 | 87002 mitack
mitack's picture

HAHA ! GOOD ONE CD!

Depends whether someone is looking or not - right ?

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:51 | 86240 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Work force shrank by 571,000 as well.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:52 | 86241 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Green shoots run headlong into the unforgiving wall called objective circumstances.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:07 | 86267 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

I guess the 'recession is over' until its NOT...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:08 | 86372 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

True enough.  BTW, I found some potential money honey's for you.  Let me know when you want to review the potential applicant pool.

Have a great day MnN.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:10 | 86378 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Are you 'Layne' with a name change... same picture different name...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:21 | 86404 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Indeed.  Miles Kendig is very much more me and my history.  Layne is power to the voice.

Marla has been more than kind.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:23 | 86413 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Thank you... that has been bugging me...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:25 | 86416 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Thanks for asking.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:37 | 86436 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

And BTW... I still have a bone to pick with you about that "your generation", "my generation"... thing... but I will catch you on an open thread or Radio Zero  :-)

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:03 | 86462 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Peace.    All Apologies are due.  Accept?

If you really feel the need to unload write to me, mileskendigatlivedotcom from an anon and I will be more than happy to address your concerns.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:12 | 86483 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Accept  :-)

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:52 | 86242 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

The Bogus Birth/Death Model ADDED 303,000 Phantom Jobs !!!!!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:56 | 86246 Fruffing
Fruffing's picture

Good catch Tex!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:59 | 86252 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

I sent ONE HUNDRED continuous e-mails with this in the Subject Line to CNBS telling them to cover this - NOTHING!  I do this EVERY month.

Subject Line:  COVER THIS:  The Bogus Birth/Death Model ADDED 303,000 PHANTOM Jobs -- COVER THIS!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:03 | 86261 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

that's because everyone there has a bogus job

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:11 | 86381 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

That was funny.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:28 | 86505 Art Vandelay
Art Vandelay's picture

You've read the chart wrong.

The B/D adjustment added "only" 34,000 jobs.

Check it out here:

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:00 | 86257 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

I was watching that at the end of last year and the beginning of the year and shaking my head in disbelief as they listed 50k NEW jobs in CONSTRUCTION each month.

 

WWell, very very late but the reality finally comes to light

 

"The Labor Department today also published its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls that will be issued in February. They showed the economy may have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in the 12 months ended March 2009. The data currently show a 4.8 million drop in employment during that time.

 

The projected decrease was three times larger than the historical average, the Labor Department said. Most of the drop occurred in the first quarter of this year, probably due to an increase in business closings, the government said."

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a36j7g1xczCQ

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:24 | 86294 dumbquant
dumbquant's picture

is there a formula these guys use for the birth/death model?  or do they just pull it out of thin air?  I cant even begin to tell u how many businesses to small to count in the NFP pop up recently & go on a major hiring sprees/

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:43 | 86530 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

the model is based on the formula from china; they were adding a mysterious substance to bring their costs down and push the death rate up. you had to first warm it up and then suck out of a bottle thru a nipple like device. they were aiming for the fed but got newborns instead. the accidental benefit was fewer newnorns to count and a more benefical b/d rate.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:47 | 86331 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The B/D model was introduced 9 years ago to supposedly help the BLS cope with the lag in counting job creation and destruction by small businesses.

At least that's the cover story. In reality, it's been a tool of manipulation bar none since the BLS became totally politicized in the 70's.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:02 | 86359 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

The BLS web site only lists total B/D adjustment @ 34K, not 303K

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:10 | 86482 molecool
molecool's picture

Don't mess with tex - hey, where can I find official stats on that - would love to post it on ES. Email me at admin at evilspeculator dot com. Cheers - Mole

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:18 | 86489 deadhead
deadhead's picture

mole...i love your site.  hope to see more of you at zh.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:53 | 86243 deadhead
deadhead's picture

lest we forget about the old revisions game...

"The government revised job losses for July and August to show 13,000 more jobs lost than previously reported."

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:44 | 86327 deadhead
deadhead's picture

excellent and thanks for posting that Andy.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:51 | 86342 deadhead
deadhead's picture

yep, thanks.

will watch tape for the 10 a.m. numbers show.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:05 | 86364 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Andy, the ladies love it when you talk dirty with those charts.;)

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:18 | 86397 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

I meant "dirty" in a sexy kinda way.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:54 | 86244 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

Holy crap, almost 1/5 either unemployed or working at Mcdonalds!? Good thing we dropped 800B on that stimulus package.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:57 | 86250 Fruffing
Fruffing's picture

And 3.5T on Wall St.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:17 | 86391 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Feed the parasites and hope the host recovers.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:17 | 86279 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Hey... but we got some really nice new roads out of the whole deal... I was driving by one of the signs that they put on the roads that are under construction courtesy of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act... and someone had graffitied the sign that said Project Funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act... and instead altered it to read Project Funded by AMERICANS   :-)

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:40 | 86318 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

the signs alone probably cost a billion.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:54 | 86349 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

You are likely correct... looked it up... each signmaker is paid $2700/sign... and there are oodles of signs all across the country... couple of articles out there about how the stimulus is helping the signmakers...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:04 | 86362 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

And I thought the federal prison industries, UNICOR was going to get that contract since they make so many road signs already.  Their pay scale is a bit lower.....

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:24 | 86690 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

i think a billion is at least an order of magnitude high... you'd need an average of around 10000 signs per state for a cost of billion dollars... i think 1000 per state would be a more reasonable estimate, putting the total cost somewhere between $100 and $150 million

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:06 | 86366 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Actually I know numerous people who HATE our political system even more, thanks to construction caused traffic jams on road that totally did not need it. Hey thanks Congress. NOT.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:10 | 86380 Señor Tranche
Señor Tranche's picture

more than 1/5, actually.  See shadowstats.com for some un-gimmicked numbers. 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:57 | 86248 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Jesus what are the real numbers, are we still losing 500,000-700,000 jobs a month in the real world?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:08 | 86270 ratava
ratava's picture

what is this real world you speak of sir

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:49 | 86336 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

If you want something closer to "real" numbers, see John Williams at www.shadowstats.com

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:07 | 86370 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Cd, I was just about to say that. I wish shadow dude would wrie here once in a while.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:33 | 86787 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

I saw on Denniger that if 825,000 is the final number, that that would chip off an average of 70,000 more jobs per month over that 12 year period. From what I've read, the October preliminary number is usually pretty accurate relative to the final number in February.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:57 | 86251 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It reminds me of "Hunt for Red October" the missle is coming right back at us.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 08:59 | 86254 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

/When does the state-by-state data come out

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:50 | 86546 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

"The only reason the jobless rate didn’t rise more is that the participation rate [in the survey] sank to 23-year lows of 65.2 per cent, a sign of growing discouragement," BMO economist Sal Guatieri said in a note"

California 12.2% (lost 263,000 in Sept, 706,000 "discouraged" workers)

lets hope they're not armed

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:02 | 86259 Mos
Mos's picture

Jobs? We don't need no stinking jobs!  We can print our way to prosperity.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:04 | 86262 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It's a safe bet on GS & Wall St. playing the expectations game by lowering the bar, often at the last minute.

If they had expected a number this bad, they would have gone with -300K.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:06 | 86263 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

UBS upgrades Apple, $265 price target. I'm saying nothing.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:29 | 86297 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Not surprised they did... apparently Goldman got them (again) with their pants down and they got a s***load of stock to unload, which calls for desperate measures...

Now where were these geniuses in March when AAPL was at 80 or so?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:06 | 86266 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

Anyone have a link to the birth/death model numbers?

BTW im long on DTO. Im betting on crude falling to the low 60's- higher 50's. Absent of course a Israel attack on Iran which shouldnt happen at least until the spring.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:16 | 86282 deadhead
deadhead's picture

i skimmed the bls report and site and could not find it...

 

www dot bls dot gov

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:04 | 86363 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

BLS - birth/death stats

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:20 | 86490 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Bingo!  Thank you very much chinaguy.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:08 | 86269 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Probably those who were on the temporary census jobs that boosted the employment numbers of 6 months ago are now unemployed again.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:12 | 86275 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

Denninger shows that nearly 1 MILLION fewer people were employed in September compared to August.

 

and the labor force is 1.26 million people smaller in a SINGLE MONTH

 

 

"Civilian Labor Force: 154,879 to 153,617 this month.

Employed: 140,074 down to 139,079 this month."

 

That's just astounding.  I'm a bear who always thought it was much worse than the official figures, but the workforce shrinking by 1.3 million in a single month is shocking

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:09 | 86375 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Lets hope the unemployed who roll off all benefits don't listen to Queensryche, pre Empire.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 18:25 | 87109 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

i think a little "rage for order" is exactly what this country needs right now.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:38 | 86796 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

Funny how the BLS manipulators simply shift people from "unemployed" to "not in the labor force" to disguise real unemployment numbers. So easy to fool the masses...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:12 | 86276 zanahorias
zanahorias's picture

For
national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the
last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of
total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark
revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2009 total nonfarm
employment of 824,000 (0.6 percent).


Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:14 | 86277 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Who is going to hire anyone when you might be fined for their health care? Hit the bricks...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:19 | 86400 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Fined? The last I heard they were talking jail.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:04 | 86663 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

The constitution's 13th amendment supposedly banned this.

Brings new meaning to wage slave.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:14 | 86278 Screwball
Screwball's picture

And the CNBC talking heads are sure funny spinning this one!  The spin machine is shaking, wobbling, and leaking oil.

I can't wait to see Kudlow.  His spin job on this might just make his head blow up.

As said above, you know this number will be revised upward.  Green shoots turning to weeds.  Can we smoke them now?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:16 | 86283 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Pisani on a mission to try and save the 50 DMA.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:20 | 86288 MinnesotaNice
MinnesotaNice's picture

Futures are crashing and burning... Pisani's going to have to try a little harder...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:21 | 86289 Screwball
Screwball's picture

I turned them on for the number.  I have since put them on mute.  I can't stand any more of their crap.

For anyone wanting the complete job report - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:27 | 86296 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I really hate them. Leasman would try to tell you dog poo was actually .999 gold bullion.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:40 | 86319 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thus his name. Liesman.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:15 | 86280 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Everyone says its a lagging indicator. I guess its time for a victory lap.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:17 | 86284 Manfred
Manfred's picture

In an addendum to the employment report (Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation) I found the Q1 downward revision of 824,000  interesting (must have been a rounding error)

 

 Preliminary tabulations indicate that the estimate of total
nonfarm payroll employment for March 2009 will require a downward
revision of approximately 824,000, or six-tenths of one percent.
The historical average for the benchmark revision over the prior
10 years has been plus or minus two-tenths of one percent.  Most
of the additional job loss occurred in the first quarter of 2009,
when payroll employment was declining most steeply, and appears
to be due in part to an increase in the number of business
closings.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

 


 

 

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:56 | 86351 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

If I could be shocked I would be, then again nothing shocks me anymore. But to be so bad at doing their job is outrageous, then again it's government so there shouldn't be any question.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:18 | 86285 Chumly
Chumly's picture

And the average jackass here in NE thinks Obama is the second coming.

Only one student in an eighth great class of my daughter knew who Ben Bernanke was when asked by the teacher.  All who didn't know also think Barry-O "is hip."  The one who did know who Benny is also is the only one in the class who likes Ron Paul.  My daughter also called the Obamamite teacher out on the suppossed "success" of C4C. 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:21 | 86290 koaj
koaj's picture

you've taught her well. i look forward to when my kids understand enough to spit on keynsians

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:13 | 86383 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

---The DLS has to make quick estimates of massive #'s so its normal for there to be revisions as more data comes in--especially when you have paradigm shifts as we are having now.

--construction ramps up real quick and once work starts a lot of bodies are needed. And ramps down real quick when projects end. That's normally how it works.

--Most of Keynes work involved mathematic models. FU if you think the modelling theory is bad. Teaching your kids to spit on math and bragging about it is how we are in this mess.

--If you dislike Keynes over his belief that in the long run we are all dead--the mantra of this web place I beieve--so let's try and stimulate the economic beast through transfer payments gov funded, what do you teach your kids to do to the CEO and WS scumbags who got rich wrecking the country? Does your tea bag only allow you to spit on the let's keep wealth equal among all over let the Mozillo's and Madoff's of the world steal it? You spit on the mathematicians who applied math to economic models, then wonder why the country is going to S--? maybe the models are not perfect but using them is better than the alternative you advocate. Look in the mirror and you'll have the correct answer why the US is going to hv some real issues--delusionals.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:07 | 86563 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Too much coffee this am?

And what do "paradigm shifts" have to do with accurate data?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:31 | 86301 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

My son does this sort of thing at school too. Does not make him popular. Glad you talk to your daughter. My son is in 9th grade and knows the score. He makes great grades but it is hard to take school seriously or plan a future in this environment. Good wishes for you and your daughter.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:52 | 86464 Chumly
Chumly's picture

Thanks.  It will take courageous people to pick up the pieces of this mess when it is over.  Cowards have led us on a path of certain destruction that we'll all have to endure, including our children.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:46 | 86535 mnevins2
mnevins2's picture

Proudly, my son (college frosh) and daughter (sophomore in HS) are also the rare minority in our VERY liberal suburb of Chicago. Fortunately, they KNOW that they are correct AND, when my son went away to college this fall, he was so happy about his roommate - who was also a conservative!!!

I'm now going to get to work on my lunch salad - the "green shoots" in the backyard appear to be turning brown much quicker than expected.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:19 | 86286 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ditto on the Birth/Death model adjustments. I'd really like to know how many jobs were created out of thin air. Can anyone oblige? Tyler?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:23 | 86293 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

many ought to be asking why they personally should be law abiding citizens with a moral conscience when our betters do exactly as they please, the law be damned. 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:37 | 86312 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I went through a period of being so angry I seriously considered running up my cards and not paying. My house is paid and I am debt free. I own one paid for small car. I have days where I feel stupid.  I am just a dominated little sheepie who followed the rules. And now I am supposed to pay for others folly too? "What a rube. What a maroon" as my hero Buggs Bunny would say. 

Moral Hazard.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:54 | 86348 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I'm in the same boat, house paid for, no debt, and now I feel like the idiot for not spending.

In the end however I think it'll work out to my benefit...at least I have to believe that, otherwise I have nothing. It's frustrating and makes me very angry but what'll you do? I just trying to protect what little I have now that the curtain has been pulled back and the falacy has been revealed.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:34 | 86430 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

If deflation is the thesis for a long time, you and I are set. If unemployment hits us, we are better off than most. If we get hyperinflation, well, I guess anyone not in gold and commodities is screwed. Inflation is the one that robs us and that has been announced out in the open as the plan (to devalue 50% over the next 14 years). This theft is very hard to communicate to others.

The curtain pulled back indeed.

Good luck glenlloyd.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:30 | 86298 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

In my kids school we get doped up on ritalin, sing songs about our fair leader and watch CNBC and David Letterman....

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:30 | 86300 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Bloomberg is also reporting a revision:
The Labor Department today also published its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls that will be issued in February. They showed the economy may have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in the 12 months ended March 2009.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:34 | 86306 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Not in labor force Y/Y increase of almost 3 million people

There are now fewer full-time employed workers than there were in November, 1999.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:37 | 86313 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Here comes the dollar hammer again.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:41 | 86320 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

EVERYONE is frontrunning the incoming dollar hammer.  Piling into commodities (and CRE REIT again!).  Gold should be going green any second.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:53 | 86344 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

How long before stocks decouple from the PPT dollar hammer BS?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:03 | 86361 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Until it doesn't work once, would be my only guess at an answer.

 

TD, could you post a Bloomy DXY shot in relation to the SPY and its 50DMA (102)?  Seems that the moment that was threatened, DXY went from selloff to full WOPR tank mode.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:53 | 86346 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What a goddamn fucking joke - NFP come in much worse than expected at this point in the "recovery" and lo and behold, equity markets will be up by EOD

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:10 | 86379 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Well, if everyone knows that bad job numbers means the printing presses are going to have to find a new speed to run at over the weekend, I guess it's time to give up and move your life savings into risk asset equities so that you only come out with substanially less purchasing power in the end - instead of virtually a complete loss.

 

At least that's what the computer bots say, as they are currently trying to HFT the Fed's hand.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:43 | 86322 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Let's not forget the new employment model and all the independent contractors that are not working and not added into the U-6 or anywhere else.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:49 | 86323 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Dollar/Yen = 88.845.  Clean break if it holds

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:44 | 86324 economicmorphine
economicmorphine's picture

Hey, anybody know where Dennis Kneale went?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:50 | 86341 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like they "vacationed" him for a while.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:49 | 86335 Cow
Cow's picture

Does the report say how many millions of jobs Obama "saved"?

Just asking

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 15:07 | 86857 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

No, that number is generated by the white house propaganda ministry.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:50 | 86338 HEHEHE
HEHEHE's picture

How'd they know?  I'm shocked!!!  Shocked!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:50 | 86340 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

So I have asked this before in other venues and I have never heard an answer. Why do we trust any of the numbers coming out? Is there a way others can get access to the raw data and crunch the numbers to check the BLS to be sure they are shooting straight?

Thanks in advance to anyone willing to answer this one.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:52 | 86343 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sorry, I know it looks like I'm pimping John Williams but he really does do good work backing out all the bullshit in government economic numbers. And some of his work can be seen for free on his web site.

www.shadowstats.com

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:28 | 86406 Chumly
Chumly's picture

No need for apologies here - I think we all know who he is and confidently refer to his numbers vs. the numbers manufactured by the politboro and parroted by Pravda, I mean CNBC.

Williams is one astute economist and one willing to call this current crisis what it really is - A DEPRESSION

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:22 | 86410 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Thanks CD,

The thing is, even John Williams does not work off the raw data, at least I don't think so. I like his work, I get it that he is trying to give us a more accurate picture, but he still works off what the government gives the rest of us and revises it based on more honest "logics." I am questioning the raw data itself. How do we know the BLS is telling us the truth about the raw numbers, never mind the frames they use/don't use to present the numbers.

I could be communicating this question poorly.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:44 | 86452 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I hear you and I've wondered myself. But since the BLS has a near monopoly on the raw data (much of which comes from the IRS and the labor department) it's a one man show.

There were/are other companies that made/make attempts to gather the data independently but it's a huge task and very expensive.

However, John Williams does make an attempt to cross reference the governments' raw data with other sources for confirmation. I've had a few email exchanges with John and he feels that the lower level BLS bureaucrat is actually properly collecting reasonable data.

It's only when it goes into the BLS spin machine that it become distorted.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:30 | 86596 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

is the raw data FOIAble?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:48 | 86461 ddtrader
ddtrader's picture

Gov't data is all managed/massaged.  Initial information gathered may have some basis in reality, but then the BLS uses the greatest fudge factor of the the Birth/Death factor, to make the numbers look as good as they need to to satisfy political and financial elites, the WH, the FED and the Treasury.  This is all a CONfidence game, with the aforementioned entities, combined with the major TBTF banks all having a vested interest in maintaining the status quo - keep the masses tamed and in the dark and we can continue to game the system for our own gain (GS revisons to job loss #'s anyone??).  The CONmen have no interest in truth or reality, it does not serve their financial interests.

Eventaully, however, market forces (dollar supply/demand, China, Isreal/Iran) and their own ignorance (deficits do not matter, spend spend spend) will prove their undoing.  Till then, buy gold and silver on dips, and if you want more excitement, trade some of the junior miners.  Be careful, it can be a roller coaster ride!!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:31 | 86782 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Don't forget the infamous "seasonal adjustment" used because idiot savants such as myself can't deal with seasonal changes in employment. By reporting numbers YoY, wouldn't that rule out seasonality? 

But then again, doing so removes one more way for the BLS to manipulate.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:49 | 86726 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

there's no need for them to manipulate the raw data. as long as they retain the ability to massage the final numbers, that's all that they need to run their long con. the zombies who buy all this bullshit aren't even questioning the top-level number-bumping that is happening; anyone who calls attention to that already has their work cut out for them in convincing even a single sheep of the fraud being perpetrated. if you imagine the spin on the numbers as a product being sold, only people who are already skeptical of the system and thus outside the marketing demographic for that lie are going to question the raw data. therefore, tainting the raw data (which would be expensive) for the benefit of people who aren't inside the customer base would amount to cost-ineffective overkill on their part. all the zombie sheeple already go right along with the top-level spin, so there's no need to go a step further and manipulate the raw data. it's like when i play hide-and-seek with my niece, i don't have to construct an elaborate gilly-suit, climb up a tree, and coat myself in super-insulating material to avoid infrared detection...crawling into a kitchen cupboard is sufficient

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:33 | 86789 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

LOL!! Very convincing argument. Thanks!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:35 | 86433 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

BLS and other Gov. data are all managed/massaged (Goldman revision in jobless #'s anyone??). This is a CONfidence game with the gov't and banks in the role of the conmen. The major financial players have nothing to gain by refuting the gov BS, and everything to gain by gaming the information and thereby the system.

Eventually, however, it will all blow up in their faces.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:54 | 86347 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Isn't this adorable?

Rosengren: Fed should keep stimulating economy

http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2009/10/rosengren_fed_s.html

Remember, never let a good crisis go to waste.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:32 | 86426 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

IMF chief economist was out this week telling every country across the world that they need to prepare for issuing another round of stimulus.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:55 | 86459 Chumly
Chumly's picture

After mentioning the plethora of hellish problems the economy faces...

(pause, take hit of crack pipe and a sip of the kool-aide)

Rosengren states:

"Despite the many positive signs, we are seeing in the economy, the financial markets and the real economy need more time to heal,''

The REAL economy, as opposed to what other kind of economy?  Green herbs in your crack pipe?

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 09:56 | 86352 digalert
digalert's picture

The sec. for Oblame-all: "you know this all started back in 2007, so in fact Oblame has saved jobs. Better yet we've been rescued from the clink scratch I mean brink. What we need to do now is stimulus like healthcare jobs"...

Is this real?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 15:26 | 86887 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

Jesus Christ, I went to CNBC to watch the Solis video @ http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1282701339&play=1

she's such a clueless shill. She used January's 700,000 job loss number to compare how much better 260,000 job losses is. As if that's a regular month, but we all know that January includes the massive downward revisions...throwing out "saved a million jobs" as fact as if there is any tangible data that can actually back up that statement. Sickening. More "stimulus" programs are surely on the way.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:06 | 86367 amarshall
amarshall's picture

Looks like the market thinks this is a good thing

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:09 | 86373 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

No, it's just that this brings out all the delusional idiots for bargain hunting.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:17 | 86392 Cow
Cow's picture

Yep.  More job losses to pump the stock market...

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:18 | 86394 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33137788

"New orders received by U.S. factories posted their first drop in five months in August, government data showed on Friday, going against Wall Street expectations that they would rise."

Another shot to the kindneys. How can (the market) still be standing...it's reeling, its staggering, the super computers have smoke billowing out their vents.

 

 

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:35 | 86432 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

GS gets the numbers in advance for obvious reasons with their Government connections from Top to Bottom. If they fit with the Govt strategy then GS does not wait till last minute. If they differ by significant enough variance, a LAST minute recalculation occurs.

WOW, GS is so smart.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 10:41 | 86445 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

When do we get to hit the reset button and get back to some semblance of rationality?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:05 | 86470 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Blue horseshoe loves anacott steel!

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:21 | 86472 Cursive
Cursive's picture

If memory serves, Mish had a piece about 1M people losing UE benefits at the end of September.  If that is true, and the bill to extend benefits is being held up, things should start to contract radically here.  I'm thinking the folks recieving UE benefits were not saving them for a rainy day.

 

Checked and it's 500k by 9/30 and 1.5M by 12/31.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/500000-will-exhaust-unemployment.html

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:55 | 86549 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Yeah, the collective number of people mysteriously leaving the workforce is in a very troubling trend, and the statistics and revisions being put out there strongly imply that the government is doing their best to keep a lid on the widely publicised numbers.

In reality, MSM should be "headlining" U-6... and giving extra attention to average work week trends.  Unfortunately, there is very little in this report that is positive.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:43 | 86531 BM (not verified)
BM's picture

"The unemployment rate is very misleading. The civilian labor force declined 571,000 in September compared to an increase in the labor force of 73,000 in August. If the labor force held steady in September, the unemployment rate would have increased to 10.2%!"

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/Arti...

 

poor people. I wonder whether 'O' man is 'pleased' today, again

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:11 | 86571 matthylland
matthylland's picture

I hate this 'lagging indicator' line that everyone uses...If employment is so lagging, and it just ticked down hard this month, doesn't that then mean the economy is really running down?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:11 | 86572 BM (not verified)
BM's picture

also, the story confirming Denninger's correct numbers

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/2009/0812.html

 

O man is a liar, and as a proof of it his ratings go deeper and deeper down the toilet with every passing day

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:44 | 86623 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I don't know why you are all so pessimistic. We're going to have job creation and corresponding positive payroll numbers before the end of the year. Bob Barbara and the other CNBC crowd told me so.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:55 | 86645 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

The sharp benchmark revision of -824,000 to the previously reported numbers suggests that the U.S. labour market is much weaker than previously thought.  The question is whether the worst is now behind us?

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:15 | 86677 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Are you joking?  You, the pension fund guru. Look at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.t05.htm again.  I can easily see another 20% taken off leisure/hospitality, construction, financial activities, transportation, and manufacturing.  Maybe more in business services.

The funds have buckets invested in CRE and home loans of gov employees.  Look at what has happened to the funds and the state and local govs.  They are about to disgorge thousands of drones.  Also consider if healthcare is the primary focus of the federal government.  They will deal with healthcare like they have dealt with the post office and social security where no claims for disability are ever paid without a lawyer.  The tort chaos that will ensue with the federal healtcare plan will be breathtaking.

The next big collapse are the mortgage investments of those still employed, and the money paid out to the retirees.

This spiral is about to hit the big time.  This is a bottom like hitting the first stair on a flight of stairs.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:28 | 86696 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Leo,

I may sound rude but it is not my intent.

How can you think it is even possible, with potential currency crises, banks going belly up, commercial real estate failures, pay option ARMs coming due, Fannie Mae, pension plans imploding, state funding issues, global trade imbalances (no one has stopped outsourcing jobs), protectionism, credit card defaults, deficit spending, unfunded liabilities, and oh yeah, the derivatives (I borrowed this list from Mish Shedlock this morning), that the worst in the job market is behind us? Or even that the worst in the economy being behind us?

Leo, no offense, but by my take, the party is just barely getting started.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:58 | 86737 BM (not verified)
BM's picture

the right question is whether you're just talking your book, or is there something else to prove your points besides that idiotic 'infinite liquidity for everyone' meme that you keep yelling

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:35 | 86707 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How does the BLS know if someone has "given up" looking for work???

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:57 | 86735 BM (not verified)
BM's picture

the right question is whether you're just talking your book, or is there something else to prove your points besides that idiotic 'infinite liquidity for everyone' meme that you keep yelling

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:13 | 86757 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I quote an economist I trust:

"The September job report, although disappointing, does not change our view that job creation is just around the corner in the U.S. Indeed, employment services (temporary help services and others) is no longer declining. Historically, this component has called the turning points in the labour market."

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:23 | 86772 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Tell me you are baiting us, otherwise, I'm gonna jump in that trench over there and take cover from the fire I expect to come your way....

Temp help up? Goood jobs, yeah!

An economist you trust????

Ah hell....

Incoming......

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:39 | 86798 BM (not verified)
BM's picture

better find another economist, because looking at the quote this economist is a real genius, and poor people who trusted their retirement funds to you

as for turning points, here's a hint for you: Average Workweek

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 16:18 | 86950 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

No point in getting all excited people. From a historical perspective that is correct. Normally companies try to add temps when when there is a bottom rather than hire people right away. I think that what we are experiencing now is companies are letting go of core people and using temps to bridge the gap. It's probable they are running skeleton crews to survive and temps are the last gasp of survival before the doors shut.

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:56 | 86835 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"DEYTOOKOURJOBS!!!!!!"

Fri, 10/02/2009 - 15:02 | 86847 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Employers slashed another 263,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported today. That brings nonfarm employment down to the level of 2004, when there were about 7 million fewer U.S. workers." (By Liz Wolgemuth)

Did you notice how she tried to say Bush had the same unemployment numbers? Pay no attention to the fact there were 7 million less workers. I guess she trusts that the rubes reading the article don't understand percentages. Please tell me people are smarter that this.

Sat, 10/03/2009 - 09:19 | 87554 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

difference in temp job creation now is that the numbers measure permanent jobs being made temporary. i dont need numbers which are lagging, sampled with a statistical accuracy of +/- 0.5% to know we are in trouble. it is desparate when an economy would rather put up signposts at $2,700 a pop than feed hungry people/pay for cataract eye ops or replacement hips. oh and in case you want to know what I really think read this for markets! volatility is the new asset class to dodge bullets!

 http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/new-normal-or-reality-bites

my money is on horse number 3, im just not sure that making "money" actually has any value that I can eat or retire on

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