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The Noon Ramp
Noon is the new 1:30pm, is the new 2:30pm is the new 3:30pm. Pretty soon algorithms will gun the market starting before the market even opens. Smells suspiciously like desperation.
Below you can see the spike in VXV and equities at exactly noon, which despite a strengthening dollar was fed by the significant drop in Treasuries, ahead of today's auction. The Fed's liquidity refuses to sit still.
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Perpetual Bubble: http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1150
Uhhhh.... Wasn't 4am the new 3:30 awhile ago? Seems like every morning I wake up to the sounds of Gresham laughing and the word seniorage echoing through my ears. Gotta love the trade off, .5% raise in equity wealth for a 1% drop in actual wealth. Let's go middle class!
You guys are baaaaaaaaaack! I was starting to worry.
Me too...
what does the VXV spike mean. help a noob understand.
I was an analyst at a small firm. I hated the hours/lifestyle, so I quit and turned my back on the markets.
Now, the global drama unfolding is so compelling that I want back in. Unfortunately, I already burned all of my savings, assuming I could earn some more. I'm thinking of putting the last $1,500 in SDS (UltraShort S&P). Who wants to tell me why I should not do this?
What are the wealth-building prospects for a broke 24 year old in this post-golden-age economy? Can we pump up the war bubble and get people building fancy tanks and planes? We're all going to hell at this point. Let's make some more money!
- The Big Picture - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog -
Why Are Banks Paying Signing Bonus So Early?
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 22, 2009 @ 9:30 am In Bailouts, Corporate Management, Wages & Income | 12 Comments
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I’ve recently learned from several MBAs graduating in 2010 about firm signing bonuses. They are being paid out unusually early.
I have been wondering why.
The FOMC’s Zero Interest Rate Policy has been a license to print money — literally for the Fed, and figuratively for the major banks.
Being able to borrow at near zero costs means that making billions of dollars is a no brainer, even for some of the planet’s most mismanaged bankers.
Banks are so flush, they have been repaying TARP funds [2], buying out toxic debt guarantees [3], and repurchasing preferred shares [4] and warrants [5].
The most recent hint of their overflowing coffers are the class of 2010 hires. Traditionally, these new employees receive their sign on bonuses sometime in the spring. Some start work that summer; most (at least in my day) begin in September, following one last drunken promiscuous binge through Europe (Ahhh, youth).
I was surprised to learn that several firms, most prominently JPMorgan, are paying out their signing bonuses over the next few weeks.
Its not too hard to imagine why.
I doubt pending legislation has much to do with it, but who knows. Given how much cash they are throwing off, my best guess is they are trying to spend as much of it as possible in the current tax year.
The crisis, the bailouts, the obscene amount of taxpayer monies that have been usurped and wasted. One is reminded of Colonel Kilgore’s speech in Apocalypse Now [6]: While Duvall’s famous Napalm line gets quoted all the time, it is that last wistful sentiment that is really is the most poignant — and relevant — to the present license to steal.
Someday this war’s gonna end…
In a few days SPY will get into 52-wk high zone (right now its 124 from a year ago, but it'll change in a few days). Is there any significance to this?
How is this HFT. If anything it's a lack so when someone goes to buy a large order, they just rip the market. I mean you can think whatever you want (not saying you are wrong), but rarely do things rip on small 100 share sniffer orders.
the great thing about this post. this tactic is now getting known. and what everyone knows, dilutes the future expected return. so let everyone know! in the meantime, capitalise from the observation
Maybe they're going for a reverse slam dunk. Maybe the last hour today will smell ugly.
Everybody dance now.....
New York City plans to sell $1.83 billion of taxable and tax-exempt bonds next week, including the first issue of federally subsidized Build America Bonds by the largest borrower among U.S. cities.
Lizzy:
do you think we can get some of the Build America bonds action?
Thanks.
Sheila Bair
Tyler, when is the wake for the US Dollar?
In lieu of flowers, what should we send the US citizens?
Are you giving the eulogy at the funeral?
once we start seeing dollar up, tres up and spx up, what type of market manipulation will you attribute that to?
Todd Harrison has patented this phrase and he agrees with your statement we might get stronger dollar and stronger asset prices. Frustrating the most people is the market's mandate.
I wonder if we will see postings like "Market correlations now totally dislocated" if this happens. Yet, historically dollar up, bonds up, stocks up is a bullish relationship.
Yes, during years of a balanced budget. But we've only had about 4 years of that in the past 30.
Not necessarily true at all.
+ fed policy
+ corp profits
+ strong eco
Lizzy, kind of cool how everyone can issue debt guaranteed by the govt. We are testing the theoretical limits of finance. I love the jingoistic title "Bulid America Bonds". Where is Rosie the Riveter posters?
Maybe we can get a more modern version of Rosie.
Sounds like a job for Robot Trader.
It is cool, especially considering the gov't debt guarantees are backed by- more debt? Is there a gov't guarantee on the debt issued to guarantee debt? Geez- finance through the looking glass, it gets confusing.
The Treasury and Fed must have whole floors of funhouse mirrors in them.
LOL I owe you. NO I owe you. No I owe you more. No I owe you more. Hey wait is this like the banker version of pillow talk. LOL
That's not how BABs work, look it up.
To the powers that be:
Aren't american citizens going to be in the same position as our foreign creditors (China)? In other words, how the hell do you plan on selling me Build America Bonds at 100 cents on the Dollar today and pay me back with monopoly money later? Do you think I'm going to let you do that to me? Do you think people with even the most rudimentary knowledge of money will let you do that to them?
Maybe if you would have blown trillions of dollars on infrastructure instead of stuffing it in bankers' pants, you might not have to beg now... I'll tell you what, we'll call the money currently spent water under the bridge... and if you want to spend the money you collect from going after bankers, treasury secretaries, fed chairmen, etc., then you can put that in infrastructure (paying to dig the same hole every day and filling it up every night). Until then, go fuck yourself.
-your fiscally ignorant, but somehow still pissed right the hell off citizens
These "solid" graphics look better in PNG or GIF, but also have more Kb and overload more the servers.
MBAs getting signing bonuses?
This 09 MBA feels lucky he even found a job. What the hell?
I"m starting to feel like Rip Van Winkle, I'm sure now I was around for a couple of really bad years but maybe I was sleeping and missed 50 because this all seems terribly 2007.
Is it 2057, crisis over, debt paid off, China can driving the entire global economy at a fair pace? Did the boomers retirement plans work out okay with plenty money left over for a new yacht and a cottage in Vermont already? Did oil turn out to re-generate itself after all and was global warming just a mistake some guy made on a spreadsheet back in grad school?
I mean jesus, I feel like I am missing a lot or someone is putting crack in my coffee.
it does feel like 2007. up every day. futures irrelevant and everybody bullish. i think the market topped on haloween?
I feel cheated where was all this market manipulation? everything FX/Futures/Cash/Commodities/Bonds all finished w/ normal correlations