Must See: Nordea's Chart Of The Week - Collapsing US Import Demand

Tyler Durden's picture

Every massive inventory accumulation.... has an equal and opposite effect on GDP. To all those who snickered at the earlier chart of the BDIY, we recommend you read the following brief blurb from Nordea, whose implications may put everything you have heard about a surge in GDP in Q4 and Q1 (primarily from the Goldman bull brigade) in a just slightly different light.

Cargo stagnation

We have understood that Chinese cargo ships have been told to proceed at 'wind speed', because of a collapse in US import demand - this is partly visible in the activity amongst Long Beaches shoremen - hence, is this the final proof that the inventory rebuild that drove the recovery in the autumn is OVER? Figure 1 shows the average speed amongst bulk carriers! Bulls - Watch Out!

h/t Paulo

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
TheGoodDoctor's picture

If that doesn't say double dip, I don't know what does.

IBelieveInMagic's picture

Not to worry, it's all being flown in!

Dirtt's picture

BLATANT LIE. What economic forecast are you reading?

They are deploying mules.  It's the only method of delivery they could find to match economic activity.

Haywood Jablowme's picture

I had read previously that cargo ships were advertently slowing down their speeds in order to decrease gas consumption seeing how oil was on the rise.  Granted, the "depression" is still in effect and that's one hell of a dip, but how much of that is a result of trying to conserve go-juice?

 

 

Winston Smith 2009's picture

I think fuel prices were higher in 2008 than now and the average speed was higher then. Of course, profit margin compression and a resulting effort to save fuel might be partly at fault for the current drop. I also suspect, not knowing for certain the methodology of the calculation, that ships in port my be included in the average. In that case, fewer ships moving would mean a lower average speed.

tekhneek's picture

Wait a minute -- that's lower than it was in 2008. At least we're in a recovery.

dehdhed's picture

if that chart is any indicator, then the last peak was a good time to bail around july 2009 when the s&p500 was about 875

El Hosel's picture

    875 SPY is right about were the volume started to dry up too, the Bernank took over from there.... We don't need no stinking volume, if you don't like a market that goes up everyday  too bad

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Buy the fucking double dip.

Spitzer's picture

You are an idiot.

Everyone seems to be reasured about buying when the stock market crashes again but do you really think the Fed is going to double its balance sheet AGAIN ?

In the face of inflation ?

and rising rates that are compressing margins ?

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Your sarcasm detector seems to be on the fritz. 

lead salad's picture

It must be.  I posted the same thing you did yesterday and he called me one of Robo's "darlings" or something.  I just LOL'ed.

cougar_w's picture

Does anyone have the link to the "you are an idiot, just buy the fucking dip" video? We need to get a rerun of that, it's becoming a meme around here.

EDIT: damn, google really is your friend: "buy the dip video" worked first time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

 

Shameful's picture

Yes

What choice do they have? Let the big banks (their owners) go under? It's not like the Fed is answerable to the American people anyway. They got by before by being boring, now they can institute a reign of terror if need be.

Spitzer's picture

Having a printing press is all great until you eventually have an inflation problem.(I know, that never happens, just use your imagination.)

Do you really think that the Fed is going to buy bonds if interest rates are shooting up in the face of real inflation ?

If interest rates start rising because of real inflation, the printing press is useless. The printing press actually makes it worse because the more bonds the fed buys, the bigger the spread is between yields and inflation.

steve from virginia's picture

Once peeps in my ambit start showing up w/ money I'll call inflation but everyone I know (and read about) is looking for that next dollar which never seems to show up.

Anyway, the next step is to have the ships sail around in circles ...

Spitzer's picture

not sure what your point is but,

* Oil is at $89 a barrel, up 21% in the last year.
    * Gold is trading at $1,413, up 23% in the last year.
    * Silver is trading at $30, up 66% in the last year.
    * Copper is trading at 4 per pound, up 26% in the last year.
    * Corn is trading at 573 a bushel, up 49% in the last year.
    * Soybeans are trading at 1,300 a bushel, up 23% in the last year.
    * Wheat is trading at 779 a bushel, up 41% in the last year.
    * Pork is trading at 104 a pound, up 23% in the last year.
    * Beef is trading at 106 a pound, up 28% in the last year.
    * Cotton is trading at 130 per pound, up 78% in the last year.
    * Sugar is trading at 29 per pound, up 32% in the last year.
    * Coffee is trading at 205 per pound, up 40% in the last year.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Impossible!

The Bernank says "inflation is too low, and he needs to spur more inflation," to improve things for consumers.

 

Bernanke says inflation rate still too low

In other news:



Peter Schiff - It's Scary How Clueless Bernanke Is
Spitzer's picture

Schiff has been marginalized by other personalities lately but he still cant be beat.

Peter Schiff is the man.

jdrose1985's picture

It's scary how clueless people are when they regard a paid liar as clueless.

In other words, you retards actually believe the people in charge have no idea what's going on.

The fact of the matter is that you were taught to be ruled and TPTB were taught to rule.

Spitzer's picture

Yeah

Just like the Soviet Union.

How did that turn out smart guy ?

ExpendableOne's picture

"Inconceivable"!  (ala Vizzini / Bernanke in the Princess Bride)

jdrose1985's picture

His point is simple. Nobody has any money. Try expanding your timeline more than 1 year and match it up to this:

http://65.89.18.138/fred2/series/TCMDO

sunny's picture

OH DEAR.  You forgot to mention the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq are also up great big chunks. 

Just buy the fucking dips!!!

sunny

robertocarlos's picture

That's the producers problem, not mine. Prices in the store are steady. 

TheProphet's picture

Remember that Three Stooges movie when they are slaves on the ship, and there is one huge guy rowing one side of the boat by himself? They cut to the map of their ocean crossing, and the dotted line is loops?

Maybe they could try that.

Kyron95131's picture

that would be the reason our previous 6 versions of the fed have failed.

its more a wonder why this one hasn't failed as quickly as the others.

its all in your history books boys

SheepDog-One's picture

You wanna talk about history? Heres some history most people could never handle, the fact that the USA declared bankruptcy in 1933 and has been in receivership ever since, US Constitution null and void from that day on. Its ALL a fucking illusion, people.

Crown 1

SheepDog-One's picture

People dont want to believe the reality of it. Thats why they had to throw Trafficant in prison to shut him up.

jdrose1985's picture

Yeah we were all pledged as the collateral of the US from the moment we were born and our birth (berth) certificates were issued. Every piece of property you "own" is held by the (false) gov't and used as collateral for the full faith and credit of the (false) gov't who is in receivership with the IMF and has been since 1933.

Basically TPTB no longer deal in silver and gold, they deal in flesh and blood. Those who claim thier rights as "citizens" of the United States have no rights for they have forfeited their very own individual sovereignty in exchange for nothing.

There is an answer, an escape route. But this is neither the time nor the place to speak of that.

Founders Keeper's picture

[Having a printing press is all great until you eventually have an inflation problem.]---Spitzer

Spitzer, all you need to know is "they" will print.  They always do.

They will print in the face of inflation.

They will print in the face of rising yields.

They will print in the face of failed Treasury auctions.

They will print in the face of credit rating threats.

They will print in the face of sovereign default.

They will print in the face of fierce public condemnation.

They will print in spite of political threats.

They will print.  That's all you need to know.  Plan accordingly.

 

Spitzer's picture

Yes, I know.

The best part is, it wont matter even if they stop printing. It was too late for the Volker response about 5 years ago.

jdrose1985's picture

Wow what don't you understand?

THE US CONSUMER IS WHO DOES ALL THE PRINTING, THE HYPERINFLATION WAS AVOIDED BACK IN THE LATE 70'S WHEN CHINA WAS OPENED UP AND OUR HYPERINFLATIONARY MANUFACTURING BASE WAS GUTTED.

dracos_ghost's picture

Yeah, and the Chinese haven't been doing hyperinflationary stupid shit.

http://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-chinese-ghost-cities-2010-12?slop=1

Sorry, opening up China was the problem and still is. They are the 13th Fed district and the Fed has no recourse but to print money to meet China's "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for world domination today" economic theory. Let's not forget the Fed is guaranteeing China's loans in a quid pro quo maneuver for them to buy US debt after the 1998 currency crisis.

Noone mentions the correlation between the 2008 crash and the end of the Olympics when the IMF wanted their cheddar and China said, "Get it from the Fed". And behold TARP was born. Subprime loan crap was a smokescreen. The global elite refuse to admit they are wrong with the paper dragon.

QE2 = $600 Billion which I believe was the exact amount of the "Chinese stimulus". China is printing dollars a hellava lot more than the US consumer.

They have a discounted dollar for a currency(aka Food Stamp) and everyone thinks they're brilliant. They are in a bigger crash situation than the US. They are f*cked because their only options are to 1) Raise rates 2) Depeg and free float the yuan to avoid that pesky hyperinflationary manufacturing base that was handed over to them from the late '70's. Both scenarios put them in a social downward spiral.

Chinese Debt/GDP is enormous. And they ain't exactly liquid.

Bottom line is the world is shitting a BRIC.

Spitzer's picture

WOW, YOU ARE A FUCKING RETARD.

GERMANY AND JAPAN HAVE TRADE SURPLUSES WITH CHINA.

GERMANY AND JAPAN HAVE HIGHER WAGES THEN THE US DOES.

Lord Koos's picture

Interest rates were in the mid-teens in the late 70s.

TheGreatPonzi's picture

Yes, that's right. Those who think the FED will let the entire international banking system die are smoking something not very clear.

They will print, yes, they will start hyperinflation, you bet, but they will never accept a default.

Default = immediate death of everything, the FED included.

Hyperinflation = lenghty death of everything, the FED, not so sure.

What did the FED do since october 2008? Buying up time. Bernanke is not dumb to the point he actually believes the economy will improve.

Bernanke is just a puppet playing games. He perfectly knows that the economy is fucked forever.

He's just trying to gain time. What for? Dunno. Maybe for his masters to prepare. Maybe for transferring more wealth from the people to banks.

toathis's picture

junked you.

Hyper-Inflation is impossible when the majority (80-90%) of all transactions are completed using plastic (non-physical) currency.

It will not happen. I promise.

Time? No. The event was 2008 (the fearful day on that October weekend). That was it. That was the collapse/event/doom. Now the worst is over, thankfully.

Gold is double-topping. HUGE BUBBLE!

TheGreatPonzi's picture

YOU CAN'T EAT GOLD, biatchez!!!§§§

I have a Phd in economics, and I must disagree with you. Hyperinflation can happen. But the Americans will not even realize it. They are starved for cash. They will continue to use the dollar for their transactions even if it becomes worthless.

Dr. Sandi's picture

That's PhD

Ph as in Philosphy, the study of concepts that are acidic or base.

D as in Duh

Not to say you don't have one, just noting the error.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

To be even exactier, Phttt.D.unce

Toathis, ewe is gonna look pretty silly going to the local store with a wheelbarrow full of credit cards.

Dr. Sandi's picture

Ummm, yeah.

Last time I missed a period there was hell to pay.

High Plains Drifter's picture

Have you ever bought something that you had to assemble via instructions? I am just sayin.....