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I don't see the point of doing technical analysis on gold when the day of an FOMC meeting. Just sayin'...
I don't see the point of doing technical analysis on gold on fully rigged markets.
me neither. after the CTFC hearings, i think we all understand that JPM paints the charts however they want them painted. me, i'm hoping for a serious slamdown back to the 1155 level, and then i am going in to buy all the bullion i didn't get the first time around.
so it's a rigged game and yet you want to go all in...
care to play some online poker?
The rigging can't go on forever...look at the inability of John Law to convince Frenchmen that their currency WASN'T being ridiculously inflated.
Sooner or later, people ask their wives "hey, didn't a sixpack used to cost less than $50?"
And then physical gold become something even your cab driver talks about.
If you really belive in 'TPTB' and all that, you are setting yourself up fo a loooong period of pain by buying something 'they' want to force lower, wouldn't you say?
Personally, I think it's quite possible there are massive short gold positions out there, and any trader for a big firm who is short will protect his position any way he can, but in my experience if a competitor learns of your position they will do everything in their power to annihilate you.
So is the argument that 100% of wall street participants are short gold?
In my worst case scenario, every central bank in the world wants to short gold into the ground.
I couldn't begin to predict when their capability to depress the price fails--I just don't think they have a magic wand that can depress the price of gold and silver indefinitely.
So yeah, I'm not day-trading this, and I expect them to make it appear as if i'm making the worst investment of my life. I'm holding onto my gold for dear life, fully expecting this first-in-history experiment in all-fiat currencies world-wide to end very, very badly...
I don't see the point in doing a technical analysis on something that is a long term investment.
i dont see a point in NOT doing technical analysis on something that is a long term investment. To all the gold bugs... you will have a bad day when the doellar spikes, copper tumbles, and stocks teeter. When liquidity is sucked out of the system, it includes the bullion.
It will only be a bad day if you have paper gold, or need to sell your physical to cover losses elsewhere. In your scenario, "gold bugs" will get their day in the sun.
What people seem to have a hard time realizing, is that "gold bugs" plan to SPEND their gold more than they plan to SELL it. Patience is a virtue, and gold is merely an insurance policy.
Yes good point, but are things stable enough in the markets and the economy to sell your physical gold? I hedge my gold hoard (all $5 worth) by shorting the sp. Its a win win situation for me. I sleep well at night knowing I have my savings in gold. When the gov and the fed finally get it so wrong no one wants currency anymore, I will have money. The physical gold market is so small compared to the amount of currency and paper assets on this planet, that if there were to a be another hiccup in the markets, the chance of locating and purchasing physical gold may net you very little gold for any currency. If you are "all in" in anything, (including currency) you better be right.
I don't see the point of doing TA on paper gold at all. Paper gold may have a liquidity relation to the banking system. Real gold doesn't. When the paper price dips, the physical demand kicks into high gear. Foreign exchanges and dealers that specialize in actual delivery, not paper products or derivatives, cannot sustain a price under $1200.
Everything is coming together for a reversal here and now, meaning over the next few days. Let's see if the PPT can hold back the flood waters trying to break over the banks of the river. I doubt it. More like they'll be able to throw up a few road blocks to slow the rush from time to time but it's becoming clear to even the brain dead that the roller coaster has reached it's peak and is headed back down.
Whee....... Look mom, no hands.
i dnt understand ....this economy has been taken down on purpose.....and they also want the whole economy to collapse so that they can provide their "SOLUTION ".....why r they holding it up since they know that it WILL come down anyway
They don't give a shit about the economy, they're all from Greenspans world, as long as the market goes up the economy is "fine"... Ben to timmaaay: Hey Timmy, when you've sucked my d*ck we can go out and inflate another bubble. Timmaay: "Yeah-yeah-yeah" jumping with joy. Get the picture?
Planted horrific images in my mind, but worth it for the laugh!
lol. "Timmaay!" I liked that.
The November erection... er, election.
they'll hold off collapse until after the election as best they can
then Obama lets it fall so he can rebuild in his image--at least, that's his plan. Not sure if Joe Sixpack is going to roll over and let him, but we'll see...
To the technicians out there, I know everyone sees that big head and shoulders pattern forming. Does the S&P need to get back up to 1145'ish to make it a "valid" pattern, or can it just break down from here?
Perma-bears going mainstream = massive contraian buy signal.
This is stock market counter-psychology 101.
Maybe before, but the times they are a-changin'.
Just it will touch top resistance again (from last couple of days), no doubt. The equity market is always the fool in the group, it can go up no matter what. Bear Stearns Hedge Funds implode = market up, three subprime lenders implode = market up. The fool consissts of gamblers who've been tricked to think that the market always goes up, they read Graham and worship Buffett, they want to own piece of crap stocks for the rest of their lives... Of course they don't see themselves as gamblers, they think there conservative doubling up in every downturn. Seems real smart if the market really tanks great depression or Nikkei style...
Gold's "broken channel support"? That's funny. I typically won't use just 10 days of data to determine how "strong" a channel or trendline is. In fact, I don't even use trendlines because gold is real cash money.
Instead of standing on the sidelines in paper, I'm standing on the sidelines in gold.
Our financial overlords are showing a little desperation.
Keep Posting Nic, please.
"Paper" gold shufflers like yourself are gonna get DESSIMATED in the upcoming collapse of the market. Gold is ULTIMATE safe haven, it's God's money, not bernanke's.
Haggai 2:8 (King James Version)
8The silver is mine, and the gold is mine, saith the LORD of hosts.
8The silver is mine, and the gold is mine, saith the LORD of hosts.
They will throw their silver in the streets. Their gold will become an unclean thing. Their silver and gold will not be able to save them in the LORDs day of wrath. They will not satisfy their hunger or fill their stomachs with it, for it has made them stumble to sin.
Paper money won't help, either. Wrath sucks.
Blah blah blah blah. Fuck god's wrath. Fuck god's old book. Fuck god's "prophets".
Most excellent post Nic!
More chicken entrails reading from Nic...........PMSL
What will it take to wake up the chartists that in a blatantly manipulated market, technical analysis means shit?
And aaah yeaaaah, gold is breaking down......once again. Grow up FFS.
Paper gold always gets a smack on Fed day.
I believe TA reflects everything, even the manipulations. Excellent post.
That's a pretty big loophole isn't it?
@freshman I share that belief: http://i38.tinypic.com/13z0qv5.jpg
The "General Jim" countdown.
95 more trading days until January 11, 2011.
Gold must rise by $4.75/day to reach $1,650.
"But Jim, you promised!!"
So you've got it all figured out, Robo?
Lots and lots of time left. We'll see.
Let's see you put your dick on the line with date and price, Smartypants.
Yeah, Robo. Gold could make that move in one day. You might want to buy some while the price is right. Harvey has been watching real silver get scarce. Somebody will have to cover all those shorts before it's too late.
" I apologize if my comments on VIX were not clear yesterday."
I was left scratching my head yesterday. This post makes a lot more sense. I agree that Gold and Stocks will move together when liquidity disappears. But I think this is only temporary. Why?
Because a lack of liquidity is a sign of deflation. However here in our Debtocracy deflation will lead to the inability to pay off our National Debt. This would increasingly signal DEFAULT in bright red flashing neon letters to the rest of the world. This default fear would reduce the demand for US dollar denominated debt. Of course that will kill the dollar thus lead to RISING Gold prices.
For this reason Inflation or Deflation Gold is a good investment. Now as we all very well know Beb Bernanke will do anything in his power to fight deflation, so inflation is a far more likely outcome. Any dip you've shown in your charts will quickly get swepted up by the man behind the curtain.
China's Shark Loan Ponzi Finance- Coverage in the Chinese Media
Thanks again for the excellent analysis Nic. Being traditionally a fundamental guy and with a breakdown of such analysis I've found the tech side to be much more valuable as of late. Please keep giving us those Bodkins for our respective quivers.
there be no shelter here
Quick point on VIX and equities - for an event like todays, spot VIX will price in a gap. On the news, VIX can fall even if equities do.
So calling for a potential fall in VIX followed by a spike doesn't necessarily mean calling for an equity bounce followed by collapse.
stocks, gold, and euro down, dollar rallies. we've returned to the inverse USD/ Au relationship long held in abeyance since the Greek debt/Euro crisis. Lenoir suggests like so many others that we are seeing a replay of September 2008, to my thinking quite a facile, short-sighted, and naive assumption.
USD has once again become the primary focus as the effects of QE 1 fade and the extremely negative economic and employment indicators expose the now unavoidable truth-the US economy is on the verge of outright collapse.
With the obvious evidence of deflationary pressures, the knee-jerk and hysterical reaction is to rush out of equities and gold and pile into once almighty dollars. Nobody in their right mind is in equities. With risk off, the only apparent refuge is treasuries and USD. Fear is driving the game. All these capital "havens" are on fire.
Despite what Lenoir, RobotTrader, or any other of the equity hounds, price chasers, or deflationary bogey men have to say,especially in these times of rampant institutional criminality, the common man wants value and substance. That is what really matters.
The insane and grotesque proportion of capital that the financials have criminally accrued taints anyone associated with them including Lenoir. Financial and investment advisers are a pack of liars and thieves lining their own pockets. I will take honest work gold, silver, land, food and water and the means to secure and protect it anywhere and any way I can find it over the frivolous airy projections of money-men and their useless charts and technical analysis.
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