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OH MY GOD, A HORRIBLE PLANE CRASH!
Everyone crowd around, don't be shy.
Ain't it a trip? $1179.60, lot like nothing happened.
I had a theory, but you know what? I'll just STFU!
Actually, the most impressive thing is to look at this little fall in perspective: graphed on a 1-month or even 12-month period, the leg down barely registers.
And, please, do share your theory, MsCreant.
This from Reuters:
Source :
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=AFN2739936720091127
Plunge protection in gold ?!?
It's the Chinese Put.
Could be just people saying "Screw equities. If its all just dollar dump driven, then I'll hold metal."
Either way, I didn't expect the shrug off here.
Some stiff buying here boys and girls. Dollar to resume it's decent shortly....
DXY back under 75...even if it just plays around there intraday, I think if on a day like today one can still short the dollar then we have a date with 72 and below.
Also...the 2yr hitting 66 bps earlier today? FML.
Agreed, carry on.
What is really strange is that in moments of panic, the markets are still selling off gold to go into what, USD? Cash?
@StuntDope yeah man, short some gold here. panic at the disco.
A lot of people are expecting the carry trade to unwind. If/when that happens, short covering begins and comes right out of gold/equities.
every professional trader in the world bought the open (in equities) this morning. benny's printing presses are still rolling. gold will be higher.
Actually its not strange at all. When people need to cover a position they need to sell something that isn't crashing in value. Hence they sell their gold. And I'm quite sure that they aren't happy about it either!
Exactly
Especially the ones that dumped it at $1138 only to watch it go straight back up.
That must have hurt.
Ouch, my hinder!!!!
Gold is not money, as many people are finding out. It sits on the desk denting the wood as the phone rings off the hook from brokers demanding margin calls. And to expose the hypocrisy of gold bugs for a moment; how are they ever going to realize a profit unless they dump their god/gold and pile back into that "worthless scrip" at exactly the moment its value is lowest?
do you hear yourself hidflect?
"how are they ever going to realize a profit unless they dump their god/gold and pile back into that "worthless scrip" at exactly the moment its value is lowest?"
exactly....
This just in... Do not panic...Walmart is still open please buy as much crap as you can...you are not alone in your inability to pay your debts....please keep buying.
2 years no payments, 0% interest on 720p flatscreens today only.
One strange thing is that the futures went green yesterday evening, suddenly also a strong dollar, gold selloff...
Paper Gold gets sold. The only person who sells physical in a panic is Gordon Brown
+ 3,196 gajillion
exactly, not like the feds lackeys (the bullion banks) to ever not take advantage of a situation to push it lower.
also i keep hearing about a big future position at 1,200 that you know the commercials don't want to see finish in the money.
Gold is on sale today. It will not last long.
Volume today is very light folks. The main attraction opens Monday morning at 9:30 AM EST. By then, the weekend retail receipts will have been counted and the European contagion will have been contained. Or not.
Many miles to go before I sleep.
Yeah... I total agreement here.
Monday is going to have a lot of "inputs" that are going to need to be digested. I'm hearing some crazy positiive activity on the retail front.
I wouldn't fret too much about gold... it's going to jump around, but should maintain a floor around $1000 or so.
PPT is having to work really hard for it's money, putting out the fire. So much for their Thanksgiving holiday... not that we should feel sorry for them or anything...
Man, this started awhile ago... they've been controlling the news flow for two weeks.
It's only been two weeks? Oh, yeah, for Dubai...
Or is that the Dubai flu, contaminating the US through Europe?
Very confusing.
very true...the problem here is that people cannot seem to figure out that a continuing economic decline in the US does not HELP the dollar or the USG! It makes the situation worse!
The glut of dollar debt makes it appear so, but there is NO ONE now buying new US gov paper. I mean, gd, look at our balance sheet. $12 in current debt, and the world's 2 largest entitlements systems now running in deficit against the backdrop of the largest slosh of expected payouts right on the horizon. The 1945 boomers are hitting 65 next year and the two systems that support them are already in deficit while the meat of the curve hasn't even hit yet.
You call that "quality" people want to flee to? No...they'll pay off dollar shorts (carrytrade loans from Fed etc at 0%) but they are not going to stick in the bonds of a country that is literally BK.
If receipts continue to collapse, the US inches that much closer to outright default.
People have been saying this for the last year, but every auction goes off without a hitch. When you can borrow dollars at 0%, a 2.78% yeild is still a profit. Carry trade lifts all boats equally, and btw, the u.s. is not going to go bankrupt.
Dude, I'm sorry, but you have absolutely no clue. If nobody was buying US paper T-bill yields wouldn't be .04% in the one month cash delivery and .02% in the 3 month cash delivery. This short the treasury market mantra is so stupid, people don't get it. Yes, there is a time to short, but usually a bubble is blown when everybody is saying it's already popped.
Seriously, 5 years are hitting 2% and you're screaming this old line? The USD has a separate place from it's own economic structure as a central currency. That makes it a commodity with a vast shortage because everybody is SHORT the dollar and long commodities. Don't drink the vodka flavoured koolaid
I agree 100%, as long as USD is the reserve currency, the us will not have default issues.
Because of Fed buying. Period.
Pleasant journey.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCPbL4yA7ik
safe travels CD!
lol, anyone playing this bounce better be doing so on an intraday basis.... the air ain't sucked out yet.
Too much tryptophan, not enough vol. By Monday everyone will have their numbers together on Dubai exposure and we can get a real referendum. I think a lot of nationalized British banks are about to hit the pound on some credit relationships they established with very nice men from the UAE.
I moved to 100% short the market at 1098.
the markets in their entirety are nothing but a computer controlled farce
all of wall street is engaged in pointless work as a result
the world should be afraid of this monster
as yet, nobody dares utter its existence
nobody in a position of power, anyway
The securities markets are really now nothing more than a computer game among those who choose to play.
Not entirely divorced from fundamental shocks, it is just 'gamey' enough, that it(but for the insiders like Lord Blankfein at Goldman Sucks, and Jamie's house)requires much more luck than skill.
At the end of the day nothing is really accomplished like having sex with your drab sister.
Where are all the gold haters now? They were running their mouths saying "Gold's going to 700!!!" like 2 hours ago.
Did the late night, volume play hail mary pass to the bullion banks fall incomplete? They need the longs to liquidate, but will they?
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2009/11/nov-2509-commentaryextremely-imp...
DEC OI is 10 x that number of contracts, look at Feb OI !
Comex will be handing out paper gold certificates to satisfy delivery, read the fine print, Comex will not empty it's vault, never ever gonna happen. The physical gold stays in the Comex vault. Paper for paper is all GC contract holders will ever see.
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/market-regu...
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/09/24/73781/getting-to-the-bottom-o...
Is this not in line with what Rob Kirby has been talking about concerning fiat premiums to settle off-exchange and not stand for delivery? (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-move-not-confirmed-backwardation#c...) They can offer the ETF as part of the cash leg?
How can a trade that is so crowded continuen to prosper. Feels a lot like the dumb money is going into gold and stating it is because of the hyper-inflation that is going to come so soon, etc. Come on, when the average schlub is telling me about how gold is a no brainer and its goin to the moon it feels very toppy.
Riddle me this: what happens to the notes of a state that goes bankrupt?
Can deflationists and gold bashers YET figure out that the US is a bankrupt state? You want to hold the IOUs of a bankrupt nation?
Fuck, load up on Greek bonds then.
Oh, but wait, we CAN'T go BK bc our debt is priced in dollars...which...we...can...print.
Two choices: BK or print. In either case, no thank you to US paper including FRNs
@trav i think this may be the answer to your question:
http://www.deerrunmercantile.com/images/products/detail/t16fifty19800.jpg
I agree to some extent. In sports betting, sharp bettors always shy away from a wager when the action is lopsided on a particular side. The thought is, that the squares or dumb money cannot all be right and sometimes a sharp will bet the other side on that premise alone. Thing is, sometimes going against the current can burn you and sting quite a bit if the "squares" are all right and pull out a win.
These are very strange times we find ourselves in. Our capital markets have been exposed as ponzi schemes based on debt instruments. It's all unraveling as the chewing gum and bailing wire gives way, so is it that strange that the masses would be buying gold as an alternative strategy at this point? Everyone is buying gold and they will continue to do so as long as zero trust exists in our capital markets. This is why I don't understand why everyone is so shocked at the spike in gold prices.
Also, this could be the one wager that the squares or dumb money folks finally win.
"Dumb" gold money is buying GLD. When you figure out the difference you will have grokked the crux of the biscuit. Follow the blast of the One Horn, grasshopper.
All Paper Will Burn
Monday is dellivery day, comex could go broke fingers crossed!
this is paper gold.
people are not "fleeing" into dollars, they are redeeming a dollar short via a borrow from the Fed that they used to make a spec leveraged purchase of something else, in this case paper gold futures. If they dump the futures in a liquidation, they pay the dollar loan back.
This was the genesis of the dollar liquidity crunch last year. Then LEH blew up, who was massively gold net short and the POG went up $100 in a single day. The Street and City are probably heavily net short in conspiracy with the CBs like the Fed. It's kinda a BW redux, where everyone was demanding their gold for paper in 1971.
Nobody is actually selling physical here and there is no way in hell the dollar or US bonds could be seen as "quality."
Someone probably got margin calls over Dubai and dumped into the globex and then once London opened, the buying began.
volatility like this is a good omen to GTFO of positions, but I'm not really sure where you flee to, because the US needs steep inflation or else faces legitimate bond default. Individuals and nations are now trying to hold physical assets and not focus on paper prices which depend upon commodities exchanges that may be operating at significant fractional reserve ratios now.
The yen carry unwind is what to pay attention to...this threatens Japanese sovereign default. Currency wars are next on the menu here, thus gold has a permanent price floor.
Bada-bing!
Volume off 75%, so the squid just needed to quadruple the ranges of everything to get their $100,000,000 day. Move along.
My confidence is with CRIMEX, the last bastion of transparency.
i imagine much polity money is long assets, especially those getting ready to retire. go ahead polity pile the money in and watch your nest egg be empty when you come to collect as the robber barons cleared your acct out. nothing left but an empty shell.
sorry it is Mr market's nature. you dance with the devil and you are going to get burned.
The U.S. must be seen as the "last safe bastion" and so we find everything that can be done, will be done. Gold works against this and will be sacrificed. Add to that the liquification of "value" assets to cover losses and its use as collateral for additional loans and we enter the next stage.
The big trend? Reduction of debt exposure at all costs.
And then? As discussed at ZH, national debt to GDP nation by nation comes under the spotlight.
and certainly don't overlook the extraordinary occurances that will begin once this Congress realizes that a majority next fall is impossible.....
Strap in...
good article at http://www.goldalert.com/ called "Gold Price Dives to $1,138 on Dubai Default" on the Dubai situation and how it may impact the gold sector going forward, given that it has performed so well but is unique from all other asset classes because many people still view gold as real money:
Today was first notice day for the december Comex gold contract. Did anyone get the data?
Most analysts out on Bloomberg agree Dubai won't be the catalyst. The missed story is that all of them expect a catalyst, just that it's not Dubai...
Only in the US with capacity utilization at 70+/- would shoppers have to face Soviet era shortages and rationing at major retailers on one of the biggest shopping days of the year.
A petro state is at or near default, gold has massive movements in the $1,150.00US range and the dollar is the weakest vs the yen in almost 15 years. Nothing smells quite like unequivocal support for sovereign credit, the global reserve currency and of course the center of the global economy the American consumer.
Ho... Ho ... Ho
Dubai is not a petro state. They had some, they still have a little bit (2% of UAE reserves), but their main export product for many years now is debt.
Spot on, 6% or less of their derived revenue is petroleum-related. Real-Estate and tourism are the big deals there-and being a "information-gathering center" for the US anytime an Iranian wants a Passport/Visa...
I expect the black friday story to be spun positive regardless of actual results. In fact, I'm hoping for another big surge up so I can pile on more shorts. Japan has called their pain threshold and Europe is already there. Market is bound unless China Devalues. Otherwise Japan and Europe go down the tubes. BRING IT PPT.
Is Marla's blurb for this post on the main page showing a picture from the movie Real Genius where Dr Hathaway's house is blown up by popcorn?
Classic. That's what I'm talkin' 'bout. THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKIN' 'BOUT!
LOVE the Leslie Nielsen sight gag.
Of course the gov is buying up gold. They have shorted it for so long that each and every dip is worth their while, with free dollars and all.
They know they are perma-fucked on the settle, either Dec or Feb, but it can't hurt to try and minimise the pain.
And by the way, the Audit the FED act, even if instated, will never be executed, you betcha.
And on a different note, who makes up those stupid capcha math questions?
Re:
Captchas - some require a negative answer, then say three characters are too many , then post the message anyway ! WTF?
Captcha overhaul needed badly.
HAHAHAHAHA I always assumed I was just getting those wrong. Or that someone changed math. Or numbers.
What happened today in the price of gold should be a lesson to everyone. You need to be nimble or you get crushed. Dollar as many issues as it has its still considered a safe haven, for now.
What is happening recently reminds me of the headwinds we had last year. My "gut" feeling is something will occur and we may have a black swan moment. It will be interesting to see if that spark ignites a powder keg or its just a spark.
Being nimble is the name of the game, "HFT" for the big boys.
We will see if my "gut" is right, it was right last year. Commodities can see a short downside which could be BRUTAL.
Last thing get some lead to protect your gold :-)
Gold moved so fast that it barely blipped on the purchase aftermarket. Let's say you wanted to pick up a couple Maples when you saw the action. Huh, constipation, price no move that quickly. The end result being that the physical premium just increases for those with a hair trigger. Buy and hold is truly a tortoise and hare lesson to be watched bemusedly.
Notice the divergence with gold miners.
Jim Rickards, director of market intelligence sums up perfectly back in Sept what is going to happen once gold threatens $1500USD. This guy's a gun & a must watch.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1275511738&play=1
I think the message Rickards hits in the interview is often overlooked but is very important to understanding the Fed's actions.
In a nutshell, the Fed will protect the idea of controlling the dollar slide at all costs. A dollar panic would be the worst possible scenario-- and with competitive devalutions unfolding, the Fed is going to need to put on the brakes.
Whether it's at gold $1500 or some other amont we cannot be certain. But we are setting ourselves up for the Fed to intervene and reverse course, because competitive devalues are major stress points.
When that happens, risk assets will unwind in a really big hurry. Gold will correct to a lower value, but the endgame (controlled devalution/SDR substitution) implies the PM will find a pretty solid floor.
It also means that banks better be ready for the next liquidation wave. This is going to be terrible for smaller more regional banks, I'm afraid. Citigroup and Wells will be the big guys on the ropes.
It seems that what everybody is missing,is that people are buying gold because they don't trust the policies of the fed,irrelevant of the dollar,equities sebt or any other variable. We are back to the days in history were people traded in gold because there were no cbs who print money. So people are assuming that cbs don;t exist anymore(or exist,but are not trustworthy). And that is what the world run on the dollar that somebody wrote about a whule ago. But the question now is realy about this country:what is the FED going to do when people in this country catch up the mania,and have a run of their own on the dollar?and what would banx do when people start(or continue)converting their savings of dollar into gold,all thinking that their dollar are becoming worthles(despite the fact the the dollar index is still higher than last years low?what would that do to banx rr?and would that finally lead to the final collapse of market and the final outbreak of deflatio?. Look at it this way:If I had half a million in retirement account,and I had to suffer all through last year,and with all the media hype,wouldn't I liquidate everything and turn it into gold?after all,It would have been like a miracle just to recover my losses(or some of it,so why go through the pain again........
I've been in gold since spring of '08, and silver since May '09. Even within such a johnny-come-lately timeframe, today's turbulence is just this side of alarming. I'd be more inclined to double down than I would be to get out.
Why can't people think rationally anymore? Even a year after the carry trade and oil collapse?
A $30+ plunge in a day? This is speculation gone mad. The bounce has saved it for now- just like the bounces after Bear/Lehman. This is the early warning signal. You can talk your inflation-adjusted bull all you like.
It was a $57+ drop. 1195 to 1138. Much more to come. Forget about bubbles, it is a mighty risk asset at the least.
Barrick has to unwind their shorts/hedged position.
Short sentence, big punch.
As long as Yen carry trade is unwinding into US$ carry trade, anyone see gold is or will be in trouble?
My USD indicators still warn of a USD rally and it may be soon.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
If you don't get it Monday, pal, you may as well take the rest of the year off.
and who cares? only idiots who trade futures on margin... paper in, paper out. if you hold few good delivery bars... just ignore this... its noise...
Brokers got their fee from each transaction, buy or sell either. That is what I admire - create a market and collect your fees. Let them fight, let them go bankrupt, let them sell paper for paper.
It is better to collect land-lords fee (or taxes) from a casino instead of running it yourself..