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Nouriel Roubini: Flat Market In 2010

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Doctor Doom is now Doctor Flat, which is how he sees the market in 2010. A 50 second recap of the week's events from this Bloomberg Television interview - the key events will not be a surprise to any Zero Hedge regulars (and even irregulars): sovereign risk, budget deficits, massive slowdown in H2, slumping growth. And an expectation for the S&P to end in the mi 1,000's. Nouriel has now fully abdicated his Chief Pessimist Officer title to Mohamed El-Erian.

 

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Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:41 | 219833 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

This is no time to quit. All the emergency and slush funds are running dry. One more massive consumer clamp down from too much open aggression and too little problem solving will suck it all dry.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:07 | 219900 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Roubini is a good intuitive economist, but his market calls have all come with the wrong timing.

He was strongly predicting a new, imminent sell-off in May/June 2009: it never happened. It may now.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:30 | 220334 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

Yes, and a mere 6/8 weeks ago he got on the Buffett choo-choo and said this year would be a recovery year!!! mild but recovery. I used to have great respect for him, but now i find he has just about the same amount of " Kentucky windage" in him as the rest of the economic video "personalities". This sudden 'gota be in with the in crowd" on "the" outlook (such as brain storm here) is useless and indicates to me either he is not doing his homework anymore to have a real opinion, or he has sold out and playing the kind of game Goldman does with their 'convicted buy calls" while they sell out the back door.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:45 | 220342 hettygreen
hettygreen's picture

A market that corrects 10% and remains flat after a 60%+ run up on fumes? Everyone should short US Treasuries? Gold to the moon? More and more of the so-called experts and gurus in both camps are going to be proven embarrassingly wrong with some of their silly-assed predictions.

Until the consensus shifts from return on to return of principal this bear market is far from over.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 18:43 | 219842 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Wow, he really went out on a limb.

Nothing here.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:01 | 219887 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

His face is flat.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:22 | 220036 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And a goofy hairdoo.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:23 | 220037 35Pete
35Pete's picture

And he has a goofy hair doo. 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:01 | 219889 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Let's start the weekend off with a bank failure, shall we?

1st American State Bank of Minnesota, Hancock, MN - $3.1 million

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:07 | 219897 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

the highlight of my week.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:50 | 220121 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

One thought on why we only saw one tiny bank failure this week.

NOBODY WANTS TO WORK ON SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.

If true, we should get a big number next week.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:02 | 219890 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

not entirely wrong... if you intiate a modest crash, and the dollar rises to wreck commodity prices, it would be easy to keep rates low. then raise rates but weaken the dollar the same time to lift the stock market and impair commodity price growth. Input costs would be lowered and the margins could be restored.

or if the FRBNY wills it to be so, it is so.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:07 | 219898 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

is this bear capitulation?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:48 | 219948 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Isn't lack of bears... bearish?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:07 | 219899 Kitler
Kitler's picture

Summers... err... Roubini... says flat market in 2010.

Long live the $US carry trade!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:19 | 219913 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

does this guy have any credibility left?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:27 | 219926 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Will someone comb his hair please

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:34 | 220438 crosey
crosey's picture

Bedhead. 

Hard to get a good night's sleep these days........

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:33 | 219934 girl money
girl money's picture

Actually, we have started to see the "Mother of All Carry Trades" unwinding this week, something Roubini has mentioned about a bazillion times in the past 3-4 months.  There is truly nowhere to hide in the markets when sovreign debt fear cranks the dollar.  Pretty freakin' cool to watch, if you ask me.

He's not in the business of calling the market, btw, he's an economist that watches massive global economic crosscurrents.  Incorporating his general words of warning into your trading discipline will help you hedge for and profit from a week like we just had.

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:47 | 219946 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Roubini is an overrated media hound and mediocre economist, at best. He has made so many bad market calls it is difficult to keep track of them all. He is about as useful as Cramer. His claim to fame is prediciting the recession. Unfortunately, he predicted a recession in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 19:49 | 219949 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Roubini Overload Man! !!!!! He probably should take a breather.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:07 | 219965 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Roubini is a Rockstar..thanks for adding this to ZH...;-)

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:19 | 219982 IKEA Is Swedish
IKEA Is Swedish's picture

It's all about the hair.

 

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 03:45 | 220256 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

He's like sooo... boring.

Let's hear what the wet blanket has to say this week.  Oh... it's the same shit he said last week.  And six years ago.  And probably when he was a child.

I mean, I agree somewhat with his stances, it's just like... you don't even have to hear what he has to say.  The economy is going to crash, everybody's going to die, gold bitchez... yada yada...

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 05:44 | 220288 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Bates I have always with held my comments from your stupidity but I am currently drunk and don't give a shit. You are fucking stupid, Roubini has never even mentioned Gold. Secondly gold doesn't do well in deflationary environment unless their is a huge loss of confidence in local fiat currency.

Have a nice day.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:40 | 220442 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

See, I even agree with him for the most part.  I knew that gold going sky high was bullshit.  I agree with his assessments about the economy.

It's just that I don't think he's particularly special in his predictions.  For every one of his predictions, there's 50000 other people saying the same thing.  He just gets attention because he said the right thing at the right time and got attention doing it.

I agree with him mostly, actually, but I just get SO sick of people acting like they're surprised by the next Nouriel Roubini statement.

Oh my god, he's negative again!  Wow... I didn't see that one coming.

How about I tell you his predictions for the next six months right now and then it won't be a big deal?

He'll be bearish on everything, and every bit of economic analysis he does will be negative.  It's why people call him Dr. Doom.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 15:27 | 220591 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Alright you caught me, he mentions it once. My point however was that the guy doesn't understand gold nor does he really talk about it.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 11:43 | 220398 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Wow, you must be a winner, coming on ZH drunk to defend Nouriel Roubini.  I know that's what I do when I get drunk.

I know he's never mentioned gold, because he's an advocate of deflation.  And yet, the same people on here that regurgitate his nonsense are the same people that are all "GOLD BITCHEZ!"

It's nice when people that can't spell words like withheld call me stupid.  It shows who thinks I'm stupid.  (IE stupid people)

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 15:22 | 220587 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

You are too fucking dumb for words, I didnt defend the guy at all. Peace dip stick.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 15:38 | 220600 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Alright buddy.  Just keep buying gold at its peak, and keep talking shit anonymously.

I would guarantee that my intelligence surpasses yours by far. 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:01 | 219983 CONners
CONners's picture

Roubini's comments make clear why economists engender praise and acclaim. Meanwhile, 1st American State Bank of Minnesota became the 16th bank of the year to fail, and Lard Blankfein is taking a mere $9 million bonus for 2009.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 07:52 | 220306 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Sweet 16 baby!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:25 | 219990 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This guy is too full of himself. Try another arrogant statement to sway US policy, that one about lower taxes didn't work.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:39 | 219999 What a mess_man
What a mess_man's picture

hey at least the man gets paid well in the "profession. but aren't we all armchair economists?  Who the hell really knows?  Who has the crystal ball?  No one.  Roubini could very well be on the money.  I work for a MF house, and throughout 2009 our head economist (who does apply some EW theory interestingly enough) was B-B-B-Bullish about the economy and markets.  I sat there in disbelief, smug in my knowledge of what is really happening.  Smug with my short positions.   Guess who was right?  Things take time, markets never move in a straight line.  And I still say this is P3.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:48 | 220001 Mrmojorisin515
Mrmojorisin515's picture

he's an ex clinton schlep, he's just a smoke screen

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:54 | 220006 lawton
lawton's picture

I couldnt believe that PPT action this afternoon - that was pretty impessive to get it back over 10,000...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 20:55 | 220007 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Who is this organization that steps in almost every single day at the closing of the stock market and buys to raise the market?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:18 | 220035 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yo Mama!  JK!  It is Leo.....and his Mama.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:34 | 220051 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

Man, Leo has deep pockets; yes, he's the "buyer" that Biderman is always talking about! Brilliant!!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:02 | 220016 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Dr. Flat?

Sounds like Dr. Hedge to me.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:09 | 220027 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

This guy  is a half breed keynesian but its probably a good call saying that the markets will be flat for the year.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:10 | 220028 Carl Marks
Carl Marks's picture

Dude's a Gypsy.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:21 | 220033 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

He is not a market technician by any means.  I would not ask him to run money with me.  However, I completely agree with his theories and synopses.  Along with Faber, I think he has a great grasp of economics.  It is where Rubini leaves off and Faber gets going that I listen to.  I like to use Nouriel's macro analysis for my fundamentals.  Then I look at BS Bernanke's PPT and J, Me Diamond's JPM Market Manipulators for my technicals.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:13 | 220078 pros
pros's picture

Nouriel's analysis is the best---no one is close

I would say he's a savant and beholden to no one, and I have spent a fair amount of time with him

His work on the carry trade over the last 4 months, the uncovered interest rate parity conditions and the enumeration of ways the carry trade could unravel is a roadmap to profits.

But he does not really try to understand markets like a trader, he's the brilliant analyst of global macro on a real time basis--- and he's loyal to his old bosses Rubin and Summers.

He has a flair for publicity, so take his public "pronouncements" with a grain of salt and study his work on RGE Monitor...that's the way to make money...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:48 | 220059 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Roubini is like a record that got stuck.  He's always bearish about everything, all the time.
It's like how Cramer is always bullish.

While I think Roubini is different than Cramer in some ways, it seems that a broken clock is right twice a day...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 23:58 | 220155 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

and whilst you masterbate he gets all the ladies...lol

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 03:42 | 220254 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Frankly, I could get more ass than you, or Nouriel.  Also, you spelled masturbate wrong.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 05:47 | 220289 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

You ability to get pussy is probably matched by your ability to get attention on these forums.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 11:48 | 220400 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Damn, well I have some idiot following me around, flagging every single post I make.
I'd say that's attention.

I have a bunch of wrong people that disagree with what I say, constantly spouting their bullshit even though I told them that gold was going to continue its downtrend, and break 1080.
And they're all... GOLD bitchez!  It's delightful. 

I always like to see people get angry that they're wrong, because it shows that I make an impact.  But, facts are facts, and you "smart people" have been wrong time and time again.  You were wrong about the markets going up, you were wrong about gold hitting 2000, and now you're wrong that some old fat economist could get more ass than me.

I'm young, strong, and turn women's heads on the street.
I don't need to buy prostitutes like Roubini.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:18 | 220425 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

You ability to get pussy is probably matched by your ability to get attention on these forums....

I'm young, strong, and turn women's heads on the street.
I don't need to buy prostitutes like Roubini...not that you could afford any...

 

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:28 | 220434 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Yeah, I just get women by being smart and good looking.  I don't need money or celebrity to get them.  I wonder what women liked him before he had money and TV appearances...
Women like me for my personality and looks, not because I have money and am on TV.

And like I said before, I get a great deal of attention on these forums, which you are proving again and again.

Now how about saying something other than "I know Nouriel Roubini.  He's SO dreamy!"

Everything you say and do revolves around who you know instead of what you know.  It's weak really.

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 03:01 | 220973 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Yep you are soo awsome you need to toot your own horn1!!one!!! Don't worry that is the last reply you will get out of me troll.

 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:12 | 220083 CB
CB's picture

I try but I can't listen to the man. I keep asking myself "why does he have little plaster vaginas on his walls?" while trying to listen to him on the video.  It's so weird & distracting.  Sorry. He's just a bit too silly.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 23:43 | 220144 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Stop reading Gawker...I am a regular guest in his home, there are no vaginas on the walls, the vaginas are sitting on his lap...lol

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 03:47 | 220257 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I bet you guys play hide the sausage in his home.  You seem to have some kind of man crush on him.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 07:35 | 220305 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Well if your bet on the market is as wrong as your bet that I am a man you should be sorry.  As everyone who matters on ZH knows Im a woman.

I consider Nouriel a dear friend and yes, I do have a crush on him as with most women who encounter the "Rockstar"

The man is brilliant, genuine and very kind.  What have you accomplished besides ranting annonymously on threads and spewing your vitriol?

To my buddies who always have my back on ZH...You Rock!!!!

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 08:52 | 220319 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Sorry to pick on you sqworl but I just love learning and teaching things and integrating and synthesizing knowledge too much to let this pass.

It's kind of interesting how you are acting and behaving towards Nouriel. You know sociopaths have a problem with infidelity and I'd like to explain how that all works. To a man sex is complete and total acceptance because of a behavior your exhibiting right now. You're denigrating masterbates because he doesn't share the same feelings for nouriel that you do. Some of that is understandable. I don't think he winds his clock quite like you do. This kind of reminds of a woman I met who liked to make a HUGE deal out of how much she liked to sleep with black guys but just how unacceptable white guys where. I don't know why some women think they need to carry that role as legitmizers of this and illigitimizers of that. It's also interesting how you feel the need to defend him. I mean why can't he be exactly what master bates says he is to him and mean what he means to you and why must one be wrong and one be right? Well we go back to that overwhelming parroting ganging up attracting empowering disempowering energy that is involved around all this.

I mean look at Michael Jackson. Died jealous as hell about some people. Starving for acceptance, killed by his "handlers". It doesn't mean anything to me. I don't miss him. I like a few of his songs but it doesn't mean ANYTHING to me. Why are some people so overwhelmed by the connection and sucked into the need and defense of these types of things while some people are immune to them? And why must ZH readers have your back and gang up against master bates to make you right and him wrong and nouriel superior and him inferior?

Cause I'd really like to know because it's the source of this fuck up we call earth.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 10:23 | 220363 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Listen, im just defending my friend against losers...opinions are like arseholes, unfortunately, some people have 2.

Furthermore, Roubini is #1 FT most read and the list goes on and on, millions of readers cannot be dismissed.

Im not claiming to be right or left, just correct with the facts.  He is a friend of mine and I am very fond of him...I also heed his advice...:-)

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 11:53 | 220403 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

First, I don't care what your sex is.  It just doesn't matter to me.

Next, your personal bias about your friend comes through in your comments.  Maybe you do have a crush on him.  That even further proves my point that you are incapable of rational analysis without bias.

I'm not even saying that he's necessarily wrong, but there is a reason why people call him Dr. Doom.  It's because he ALWAYS says the same exact thing over and over.  We could have 19% GDP growth, and full employment, a chicken in every pot, etc, and the guy would still be like "blah blah blah, deflation, blah blah blah."

My only point is that you don't even have to listen to what he says because he always says the same thing.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 13:25 | 220477 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Perhaps he always says the same thing because nothing has changed.  Should he change his opinion because you are tired of listening to him?  Just because the stock market has gone higher in nominal terms, it doesn't mean things are improving.  The methods chosen to pump the market higher have actually made the situation much much worse and I think Roubini has actually adjusted his own forecast downward after seeing how bad things are turning out.  The can has been kicked down the road but we are heading towards it.  I actually thought his early forecasts were too rosy but he seems to have adjusted them based on what he sees is not working.

As far as gold to $2,000/oz, you are right....until you are wrong.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 10:49 | 220371 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

" . . . I mean why can't he be exactly what master bates says he is to him and mean what he means to you and why must one be wrong and one be right?"

Well, gee, I don't know, Heph, maybe because Sqworl's met the guy and knows him, whereas Master Bates (and all of us) know him via the media's filter and his publicly presented persona rather than the private? Is it not remotely possible things are lost in translation from digital to analog?

PS You really need to let that encounter with your woman friend go.  Don't let it define who you are.  You're bigger than that. 

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 11:31 | 220392 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"PS. You really need to let that encoutner with your woman friend go."

Well see that encounter didn't damage my self esteem or anything or leave me permanently distorted. I guess what I'm getting at is keypin to validation and conformity. It's like we spend all our time trying to cockblock this and create acceptance for that and form and conform but it is all done in strange stupid ways that don't really matter. I'm using masculine and feminine terms because that's really how it all interacts. It's like we think we know what kind of dick is allowed in our pussy and what is going to make it feel good. I'm speaking about the emotional and mental construction of this not the sexual construction. So we keep kicking this out of our vagina and trying to force it to change shape or remold before accepting it back in our vagina where it will satisfy us.

I know this stuff is sensitive i'm digging around really deep in psychology. But don't you just find it odd that we have to have so much agreement? And really what does that get us? Does it make sqowrl feel more validated for being attracted to roubini if master bates is not able to reach agreement with her about what his motives, message, influence, needs desires, whatever mean.

And yes. Is it not strange that we tend to operate on such superficial levels through media and projected personas. That's another curious thing it's like I had this dream a few months back. I have been operating at a very very very tightly closed level completely cut off from spiritual influence. I had this dream this woman showed up and just simply claimed that we went to the same university (dream symbol for advanced state of evolvement which I am operating at). But anyway she put out a few expecations. Took her clothes off except for bra and panties and put out the expecational energy of me hugging and holding her and simply said I'll stay with you and you and I will be together with the "father" which is simply one way to explain source. I woke up and said NO. I mean I do not know her or know anything about her and have no idea if she is cooperating with me or not, the stripping to bra and panties indicates an unwillingness to be completely open and that some things will be hidden. So why when you're totally dead asleep and unable to defend yourself with an active concious brainwave pattern are these things allowed to occur.

And why are opinions taking so seriously and supposed to have so much danger or power when there are things that are really dangerious and really taking action going on all over the world. How are we able to affect each others security and insecurity and acceptance and rejection and why do we have to form huge group vaginas with huge cock blocks to interact with each other.

I know this is deep psychological stuff and not really best to discuss in a finance group setting. I'm just curious how we are able to keep each other down and in check and confused while a few people freely rape us all.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 11:46 | 220399 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Wow Madness...major disappointment!!! ..Persona non grata.:-(

I am extremely offended by your porn laced diatribe.. .

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:00 | 220413 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

You know, your arguments would have more validity if they said something other than "the man is a rockstar.  I personally know him."

That's all.

How about defending his position, or the fact that he always says the same old shit over and over.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 11:56 | 220409 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Just one question: What does a personal relationship with somebody have to do with analyzing their PUBLIC comments?

His public comments are always the same.  He's bearish, thinks the world is going to end, and always pisses in somebody's corn flakes.
I could see why he's popular among the angry masses that sometimes congregate here.

You don't even have to listen to what the guy says.  If there's an issue, he's always first with the worst possible scenario about anything.  All he does is be negative.  He never has anything good to say, and there are always plenty of bright spots to talk about.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:04 | 220415 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

I could see why he's popular among the angry masses that sometimes congregate here....nuff said.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:17 | 220423 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Yeah, it is nuff said.

People want to believe in his constantly negative diatribe, because they themselves are negative.  There are some people who would be negative if they won the powerball and had a magic unicorn that would fly them arounf the world.

Some people only embrace opinions like those that are their own, while others listen to opposing sides and respectfully disagree with them and use the opposition to make their arguments more valid.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 13:01 | 220458 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya but I also believe the it's coming to an end. I can't see it working out any other way. But the real question is why do you want people to believe it isn't and do you see a way for it to work out in the end. And would it really work that way. If enough people believed and had faith in the system would it recover. Of course it would but it would have to recover to a much more manipulative soul sucking false accounting self with more asleep people knowing somethings wrong but not quite sure what it is.

But why not take a hard look at the illusion of control. Leo can't convince enough people here that it's all goign to come back and get them to dump all thier life savings into solar stocks to make solar stocks go up enough to earn some money but why does he continute to try to convince people to do it. Some people an dsome groups have that control and power. But they also have fake counterfiet money to play with. Why do people who don't have fake counterfeit money try to emulate the actions and methodologies of people who do? You need a sicko CIA department that can dump 50 lb bags of cement mix in childrens milk and make them sick to destabilize govenrments and manipulate malleable power hungry people into accepting a role in it all to make some of the things they pull off doable.

But if we don't accept our opposition and simply try to reject and conform them into agreement we don't deepen our arguements and understandings. I just think it's strange watching people protect each other. Conformining someone to agree with roubini no matter how good of a guy he is or isn't doesn't get to the real problem. Knocking someones confidence down to make them more malleable and willing to accept a conforming opinion or analysis isn't a good approach either.

It's all zero sum. One persons control is another persons lack of control. One persons excessive influence in an affair is another persons going along for a ride they might enjoy or might not enjoy. I've dealt with assholes here and in the ghost region and they can throw down purty stories about how this will all play out, and get balanced out and we'll all end up saved by zero. But I think they are just clueless fucks driving the car around to nowhere but stupid, hoping to fuck us all over enough to be able to control us instead of coming up with any real solution to how we interact with each other. Laws one minute and one circumstance and might is right the next minute and the next circumstances.

I wasn't attacking or defending anyone and I clearly took Sqworl to a very confusing place just with terminology and language and set up a huge miscomunication. LOL

But ya bruce reggie and the tylers and marla are in there digging up the problems and details of why this all going wrong while roubini and schiff and those guys are simply saying the same we're fucked message over and over. While Leo and fibonnachi guys are clearly showing how it's all normal and not much strange is going on. I tend to believe that normality is being completely faked at this point and the quants have the first bits of artificial intelligence and we are looking at a turing test of sorts.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 13:28 | 220481 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I think that things will be bad in the future, but I have faith in the world over the long term as well.  Even if things are going to be THAT bad, most rational people know this, so there's no point in preaching it again and again.  Is anybody really surprised that Roubini will be negative in his next report?  Is it even a surprise anymore?

Just as there are people who are overly optimist, there are people who are overly pessimistic.  I don't want to go along with either view, because neither are realistic.  The truth is that while there are a ton of problems and a ton of different ways that this could come crashing to Earth in the long run, there are infinite number of ways that things could get better too.

I agree that some people are uncovering the real problems, while others are jsut regurgitating them.  It's why I believe that Tyler and Marla's work is constructive while Roubini's work is just tired.  Something good might come from people knowing the details behind the truth, but nothing good comes from constantly preaching that we're all fucked without giving details about it or providing solutions.

Still, I happen to believe that even if the very worst happens in the world, humans will always find a way to survive and go on.  Humans will find a way to fix these problems.  It's evolve or die.  We will most likely evolve.  Even if we die, what's the worst that happens?  No more suffering?  See, there's a silver lining to everything.

I don't think that the current path is sustainable, but I don't believe that things will be bad forever either.  I don't see riots in the streets or survivalist techniques being necessary.  We're not monkeys, afterall.
If worst comes to worst, I have my protection.  But I believe in planning for the worst and hoping for the best.
There's nothing constructive in planning for the worst and hoping for the worst like some people do.  They do it because if things are really that bad they can say "See, I was right!"
What good is being right if the world ends anyway?

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 13:27 | 220480 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

I promise that if I win Powerball tonight, I will be a positive light for all.  Schiff, Faber, and Rogers have all stayed on message throughout.  Do you feel the same about them?

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 13:31 | 220485 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

You know, I kind of do.  Especially Faber.

Just as an optimist can't always be right, a pessimist can't always be right either.

I think that the truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes, really.  I still believe in the potential of humankind.  I still believe in man and our ability to move forward.  We've been in a depression before, and we will be in one again.  It doesn't mean that we're all going to hell tomorrow.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:24 | 220430 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

All your posts say to me is that you make your life from who you know instead of what you know.

"everyone who matters on ZH" (in your opinion)

"I consider Nouriel a dear friend"

"To all my buddies on the internet that have my back"

It's all about who you know instead of what you know.  It's kind of weak, really.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 19:38 | 220791 velobabe
velobabe's picture

i am so intrigued. my kind of man, intelligent & wit who cares if he has any money or looks those other qualities are priceless.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 13:44 | 220499 CB
CB's picture

I once had an English professor who used to invite us over for dinner once a month (all girls school).  There was no shortage of swooning girls for this 40 year old man.  He ended up marrying one my friends during that time, he was fired & they divorced 7 or so years later (he cheated on her with a student, surprise, surprise). He was a total creep and we were too young to 'get it' in those days.  I get the exact same predatory vibe when I see Roubini. 

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 22:34 | 220104 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Flat is the New Up!

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 00:04 | 220160 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Listen to the video interview. Note, The S&P is a reference to the Standard and Poor's stock price index comprising the 500 largest companies in the US. So he says the index will remain flat for the year...duh! Why would you ever invest in any of those Goliaths during one of histories greatest economic downturns?

The index has been flat more than once over the past 20 years. Review 2004-2005, 2005-2006 etc. Last, he said the market will be fine for the first half then turn south during the second half. Very likely given the lack of real economic growth. What's the news?

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 00:32 | 220174 Get_to_the_choppa
Get_to_the_choppa's picture

Flat is the new optomisitc.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 00:32 | 220176 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

does anyone give a crap what roubini thinks about anytthing?

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 03:48 | 220258 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Exactly!

Oh my god, the guy called Dr. Doom is going to speak.  I wonder what he's going to say... again.

Same old shit, time after time.  The economy sucks, people suck, the stock market sucks, housing sucks, oil sucks, gold bitchez!!!!

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 03:59 | 220261 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day...

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:03 | 220414 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Exactly.  If you're ALWAYS negative, you're right in bad times, but wrong in good ones.

Just so happens he's living in a bad time, so he's the man of the hour.

I mean is it really special knowledge that the market will probably tank in the second half?
QE is ending, and as long as that money dries up there will be no money to chase assets like there has been.

No money for stocks = lower stock and commodity prices = deflation = higher dollar.

There, I didn't even have a microphone and a PhD, and it was obvious to me.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 04:12 | 220267 Nout Wellink
Nout Wellink's picture

The market has anticipated a V-shaped recovery with booming earnings in 2010. This will not be the case, so why would the markets be flat? Doctor Doom seems overly optimistic here. Deflation will be the main game in 2010. And deflation is way, way stronger than the wall of liquidity.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 07:19 | 220303 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

So the Bernanke doctrine was all a lie, or
did the bearded one just fail epically?

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 10:51 | 220373 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Don't tell Leo!

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 04:16 | 220271 Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

Roubini believed his new-found fame would get people to pay for his brilliant insights on the economy, and he ended up killing his site.

No one would disagree that porn is better than economics.

I can get the former for free on the internet. I sure as hell ain't gonna pay for the latter.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 04:59 | 220282 godfader
godfader's picture

Roubini should rename himself to Nouriel "Flash in the pan". Who cares what this guy is saying? I'll listen to Soros, John Paulson. Heck, I'll even listen to when socialist Buffet talks the market. But Roubini? Who the hell is this guy to make market predictions?

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 08:23 | 220310 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

News flash Godfather: Soros listens to Roubini!!!!  I witnessed it..so there!...:-)

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:05 | 220416 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

You're annoying.

"I KNOW ROUBINI!!!  PAY ATTENTION TO ME!!!"

Like Soros couldn't figure out that there is going to be deflation without another QE program.

I'm sure he has a rudimentary understanding of the news.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 06:04 | 220293 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

For me Roubini's credibility went out of the door when he said gold = crap implying we all must believe the guys in charge of the casino's and their employees in DC.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 07:15 | 220302 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That voice is freaky. He sounds like a vampire.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:15 | 220326 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

A chimp with darts will hit the mark more often than Roubini. Away with this village idiot.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:21 | 220330 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Retest of March lows is a must. Major bear markets are not V shaped. And this is the grandaddy of all bear markets.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 10:08 | 220352 miker
miker's picture

Hey folks, let's calm down the tone here.  This is great blog and with lot's of great insights, but there is a growing amount of cutting each other down.  

 

Thanks.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:12 | 220420 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

That's the modus operandi here.  If you say something that people don't like, they're the first with the insults.
You don't see people backing their positions.  It's just "you're an idiot, etc, etc."

It's all emotional bullshit. 

"You disagreed with me, I'm going to call you an idiot and flag your post as junk!"

There are some good people here, and some of the smartest people I've ever seen.  Then there are some people who will not engage an issue directly, and offer personal attacks on people that have opposing views.

Yet, they can't offer facts to support their positions.

I'll never attack somebody personally that doesn't attack me, and even then I'll keep it to a minimum.
They should be thanking me for telling them gold was going to drop.  Instead they just got angry about what I said, and got even angrier when I was right.

Emotion and money are two different things that have nothing to do with one another.
I actually stopped trading for a while because I was too emotional.  Only recently did I start again, and I've been doing awesome.

These people need to separate their emotions and personal beliefs from reality.  But they can't, and it shows through in their "debate skills."

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:21 | 220428 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Sigh of relief...the Ritalin has kicked in..now behave and go back to myspace...;-)

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:34 | 220437 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Why don't you go moderate the Nouriel Roubini fan club or something?

You obviously don't have any relevant contributions about economics or finance.
"Nouriel Roubini is my homeboy!  He's SOOOO HAWT!"
LOL.  That's hilarious.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:41 | 220443 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

If I knew you and someone went after you the way you have gone after Roubini...I would defend your young tight gay ass too!

He is not a homeboy..He is a leading World Economist...show some respect for the forum and its members...;-)

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:51 | 220452 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Why don't you?

"your young tight gay ass"  ----> Way to show respect for the forum and its members.

I do have a tight ass, cause I don't put anything in it.  I'm not gay though.

And you still haven't defended his opinions, just the fact that he's your buddy.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:35 | 220440 Carl Marks
Carl Marks's picture

Sqworl: Want to chat in a private room. I'll show you my roubini.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:42 | 220445 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

see you in mibbit baby!...;-)

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:53 | 220454 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Sounds pathetic to me.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:51 | 220451 Kurtieboy
Kurtieboy's picture

Is it just me or does this guy come off as an asshole?

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 14:09 | 220461 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

The rats are jumping ship.

 

 

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 13:50 | 220488 pros
pros's picture

After a few good months it appears that comments on this blog are going the way of many:

Gresham's Law of Blogs

no one wants to see these silly postings

Aristophanes' version of Gresham's Law from THE FROGS abt 400 BC:

The course our city runs is the same towards men and money.

She has true and worthy sons and fine new gold and ancient silver,

Coins untouched with alloys, gold or silver,

Each well minted, tested each and ringing clear.

Yet we never use them!

Others pass from hand to hand,

Pitiful brass just struck last week and branded with a wretched brand.

So with men we know for upright, blameless lives and noble names.

These we spurn for men of brass...

 

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 21:54 | 220526 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 -

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 13:43 | 220498 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

...who here followed Roubini's calls in 2009? He's an economist, not a market strategist. In my experience the two don't mix very well.

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 17:51 | 220718 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Count Dracula should stay away from market forecasting. Economists are notoriously poor at it and I don't think that he is an exception.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!