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November Budget Deficit $150.4 Billion, Worse Than $138 Billion Consensus, Biggest November Deficit On Record

Tyler Durden's picture


The Treasury has released the November deficit, which at $150.4 billion was about $12 billion worse than expected. Total receipts were $148 billion, of which individual income taxes were $64.3 billion, while the government actually refunded $3.1 billion for corporate taxes in the month. While cumulative receipts since the start of the new fiscal year are better than in the prior year period ($135.7 billion compared to $109.1 billion), it is the expense side that is far more important: in November the government spent $299.4 billion, the bulk of which going to the Department of Health and Human Services ($72 billion), social security ($64 billion), and Defense ($57 billion). The department of education saw a whopping $7.6 billion in funding in November. What is more troubling is that the interest expense is starting to rise: in the two months ended November 30, the US government paid $43.5 billion compared to $40.8 billion last year. Of course, this is to be expected, as total US debt is about $1 trillion higher now than it was last year. And, as always, what is most notable is that in November total debt increased by $192 billion to $13.861 trillion from $13.669 trillion. In other words, we are now at a point that every dollar in receipts is matched by 1.3 dollars in incremental debt.


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Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:29 | 796500 MrTrader
MrTrader's picture


Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:33 | 796515 monopoly
monopoly's picture


that takes a lot of money and as Zero Hedge is not on the take and is an honest site, they do not have the capital.

But a great thought.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:22 | 796758 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Actually, Zero Hedge proably doesn't even have standing, and in any event it profits from exposing what the Fed's about (for which we are all thankful).

Now on the other hand, Mr. Trader, you have a better shot at standing, so we'll look forward to hearing when you and your contingent fee lawyer (of whom there are plenty waiting for your call) bring that suit.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:24 | 796759 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Not that ZH is clearing anything.  I suspect the "take" puts it close to being a non-profit, though far more is deserved.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796531 Shameful
Shameful's picture

lol so your plan is to go to the mobster run court and complain about the mobsters.  Somehow I don't think that will work.  You need to realize that there is no help coming from the government, they sold us into bondage a long time ago.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:42 | 797271 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

TD doesn't want to get charged with not using a condom.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:30 | 796503 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Buy dollars!  Cuz they ain't makin anymore of em!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796523 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

And buy bonds!  

Moody's and S&P agree that someone who only spends 2.3x their income is a AAA way to make 3%.  Its practically Free Money for the taking.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:52 | 796626 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Correct!  Buy dollars and bonds!  Right now!

Sell your gold and silver right now!  Keep selling it until I get back to the USA!

Au to $0.02

Ag to $0.01

JonNadler, round up your minions: Robot, TWORIVER, JW and toathis!  And find that guy Bravo!  Stat!  Make Jamie´s day!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:06 | 796683 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

Hey DoC, hope you had a good week. Silver ends the week around 28.75, having made a Bearish Wedge from the drop from 30.70. The likely scenario is a continuation of the selling to support/up trend around 27, probably by Tuesday. A push over 29 on volume would negate. Thats what the charts say. Have a good weekend.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:24 | 796767 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Thanks TWORIVER, you too have a good weekend. 

So what do the Bearish Wedge and charts tell us about silver in 2 weeks?  Please say $23...

Besides, you can´t eat it!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:32 | 796810 tmosley
tmosley's picture

In PMs, the charts are always wrong.  Why?  Because TA only works in a free, unmanipulated market.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:34 | 796815 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

The Wedge is three days in the making and is confirmed by declining volume. That should set up for a quick move to the area in between support at 26.5 and the up trend at 27. As for the next two weeks, I see a potential range of 25 - 29. The volume confirmation is strong so 26.5 is quite likely (85%) and 25 less so (35%). See you Monday.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:11 | 797186 trav7777
trav7777's picture

silver's been a reliable sell outside the upper BB and a buy at the mid band.  RSI made multiple divergences on the day chart dating back to mid october but the declines were muted.  Watch the 27ish range

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:28 | 797235 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

sorry DoChen, I couldn't get anybody other than Tworiver, the rest have fled. They're all visiting South American consulates, looking up Tierra Del Fuego real estate. They're all very demoralized. A two dollar drop, though and they will all be back in full force.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:35 | 796819 midtowng
midtowng's picture

That's OK. What will fix this is a massive tax cut.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:31 | 796504 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

guys this unexpected increase in the deficit is probably now considered a positive by the market once it digests the news.  Man up if you disagree.  The consensus now seems to be that the deflation monster is so big that it's probably unstoppable in the long run,  but we can still party on in the short run.  If we get lucky China depegs or at least starts a buying spree of USA products and our trade deficit continues down and we grow our way out of this.   Buy some puts or have some tight stops if you have trouble sleeping at night, but you have to buy a ticket if you want to win the raffle.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796537 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Deflation is the BEST thing that could happen. There is no better way to determine the health of an economy than the existence of deflation. If you don't have deflation, you have criminal banking and corporate behavior. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:42 | 796572 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

I agree we have criminal banking and criminal corporate behavior, but are you just going to complain or are you an investor trying to make some money?  I thought this was an investment site.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:45 | 796582 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

No, it's a news site that leans to a financial market perspective. And silver's done quite well this year, thank you very much. So have the EU CDS' TD told us to buy when they dipped earlier this year. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:52 | 796629 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

the difficulty is picking out the best ideas.  But complaining about the unfairness of it all does no good.  That's all I'm trying to say.  Complaining and anger just robs you of the dispassion you need to invest.  I've been a silver bull for a decade now.  Still am.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:55 | 796636 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I have withdrawn my consent from the Ponzi, and no longer give the money-changers any fees, points, etc. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:58 | 796655 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

If you came out further ahead by paying the money changers then you wouldn't do it?  I'm just trying to understand the zero hedge consensus.  I'm just out to make as big a return as I can.  I can't change the world.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:12 | 796705 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

No. I view life as more then a "return". I'd gladly sacrifice for a new and improved economic paradigm. I might not change the world, but I'm trying to do something. My kids depend upon me to try. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:13 | 796714 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

As I understand Zero Hedge, we are trying to get at the truth about what is going on in the economy and in the world geo-political scene. We are not here primarily to get ideas for short term trading. If I am mistaken, I'm sure TD will straighten me out, but until then, that's how I see ZH.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:07 | 797664 delacroix
delacroix's picture

we do change the world, one decision at a time.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:47 | 796589 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

As an investor, inflation robs me of the opportunity to save, it restricts the development of capital- which I can then use to produce and sell products. It furthers blurs the ability to see clearly, which opportunities exist for investment and return, thus affecting my opportunity to make money. 

It is an investment site, an intelligent investor's site. Lost? 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:21 | 796756 toathis
toathis's picture

Inflation is quite low. Work half-a-day at McDonalds twice a month for 6 months of the year.

Ben Shalom is the man. Keep trying to second guess him. Go broke trying to bet on the "collapse"

Just don't end up like this guy (yikes)...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:37 | 796784 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Well, maybe if you believe the CPI and ignore the shadow banking destruction of credit. Checked commodities lately? Or energy or food? Ben Shalom should be hung, drawn and quartered and then have his head put on a pike outside the Marinner building as it's set fire to forever eliminate the FED. 

You work at MacDonalds- home of the FED bailout. I want a better future for my kids and grandkids.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:29 | 796798 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Ugh, now the trolls are having baby trolls...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:38 | 796836 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture


Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:43 | 796854 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

FWIW, I always look for your posts. Enjoy the thinking that goes into them...


Fri, 12/10/2010 - 19:38 | 797429 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Thanks, as I enjoy yours.

Have a great weekend.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:01 | 796929 tmosley
tmosley's picture

A hermaphroditic troll took our advice and went and fucked himself, and this is what we got.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:47 | 796595 merehuman
merehuman's picture

my mistake, i thought it was a financial truth and awareness site. Sure looks that way to me. Oh, wait i am not wrong.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:57 | 796647 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

merehuman, great to see back and not taking any grief.

Hey, do me a big favor.  Tell everyone to SELL all their PMs to knock the price back down for me when I get back to the states.  Thx mucho.

Work with the ever clever ZH-er JonNadler, he da man!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:49 | 796607 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

i'll man down.


the currency deflation is the long term winner... at least it should be, as dollars due >>> dollars payable. but what if the bernankrupt holds his finger on that zero on the keyboard?


if only the shalom could control human emotion... then economics would be a science.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:55 | 796642 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

human emotion is the one thing you need to watch, but it will show up in the eurolibor and sovereign cds first!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:12 | 797190 trav7777
trav7777's picture

this isn't even remotely true.  Deflation like you suggest reflects a shortage of money

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:20 | 797215 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

dollars due reflects dollars eventually paid.


go save the world, take out a loan


Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:44 | 796575 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

We won't be growing out of this. The laws of thermodynamics apply to all systems, and trump the concept of perpetual growth assumed by modern day economics - which is nothing more then voodoo masquerading as science. 

Investing in the Ponzi merely to accumulate more fiatsco's makes no sense. The end will come. It will be impossible to time. Take advantage of this time to prepare. That is the gift the elites have given you...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:49 | 796602 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

We may not grow out of this in the long run.  You may be right.  However it is possible to hedge your bets.  Run some tight stops and watch the technical indicators and read Durden.  At only 7.50 per trade you can change your mind multiple times per day.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:50 | 796614 merehuman
merehuman's picture

gift the elites have given you" ah gee thanks a bunch. Lost country, lost future, all fubar and i have to send a thank you card for this gift. 

Which address?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:55 | 796639 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Perhaps I should have called it a booby prize...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:54 | 796634 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

invest in ponzi --> accumulate fiatscos --> buy silver


you're right, this doesn't make sense... this makes money.


keep some faz in your back pocket.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:57 | 796650 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

The ponzi is skewed against the individual's success. It's worse then casino odds. 

The 2x, 3x leveraged ETF's with their inter-day decay are one of the ultimate rigged games. Right up there with VXX. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:11 | 796704 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

lev'd etf's are a complete card house no doubt.


but this is a game of musical chairs, and i hear music. as long as our auditory acuity exceeds that of j6p... (card counting)


but it will stop.


one's actions in these coming weeks and months (i doubt years) will color decades of one's life, sadly.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:53 | 796891 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Damn, dude, words out of my own mouth.

Yep, it's all about energy; not peak oil, but net energy utilization. If there were sufficient energy resources that could generate 5%+ CAGR over the next 25-50, we'd be golden. (At least for this version of the Ponzi. Our great-great grand-kids would then be in the same exact boat.)

And yes, instead of complaining, everyone should be readily preparing and thanking the PTB for providing this (temporary) cushion. I mean, that's what they're doing, isn't it?


Btw, when someone finally gets around to becoming an expert on the Greatest Depression, perhaps the one flaw they will discover in Ben's thesis was the lack of sufficient energy. That is, what if Ben had been in charge to execute his policies in the 30s? The vast ME oil fields had yet to be tapped; it was all there, just waiting to be exploited to cover the Ponzi's debts.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:06 | 796951 toathis
toathis's picture

Ben's thesis was correct. The brakes were slammed on a Depression. GDP is growing. Jobs are being added. Market is nearly 80% recovered off the lows.

I know you want a collapse. But it IS NOT COMING!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:19 | 797209 trav7777
trav7777's picture

not just that, but the US was on course to be the world's #1 oil producer for the next 40 years.

We won WW2 because of oil, and we dominated the century because of oil.  The ME continued the ponzi in the 70s; the great Saudi fields weren't developed much until well into the 1950s; this saved the US economy for the following 30 years.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:15 | 797200 trav7777
trav7777's picture

in deflation, the fiatscos get in line with the other claim tickets, aka, the bonds.  They denominate a share of real assets.  The growth may go but the elites don't care so long as they maintain feudalistic control of productive assets.

It's good to be Earl or Baron no matter the era.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:31 | 796505 monopoly
monopoly's picture

We are so screwed. And until it all blows up and the sheeples march on Washington by the millions nothing will change. I forgot how to short a stock it has been so long.

Makes the insane aslyum look normal.

When does the Bernank get indicted.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:41 | 796568 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

There is a lot of doomer and conspiracy porn out there.  Many have missed the market move because they are rigid in their thinking and not willing to consider the possibility that you are wrong, or at least not right just yet.  Just because you want the sheeple to march doesnt mean it will happen.  Just because you want this corrupt system to fail doesn't mean it will happen either. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:46 | 796588 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

The market move in PM's? That one?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:51 | 796616 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Let's attempt to paint with a broad brush and proclaim anything that doesn't fit our little picture of reality a : doomer and conspiracy porn. We wouldn't want to apply established economic theory to the concepts of inflation and monetarism and talk in real terms. What a dinky dickus...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:55 | 796638 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Just another professional troll sent to disrupt a website that the *perp skool* elite feel threatened by...

It appears they're starting to popup like flies on a corpse.

Guess ZH is getting too popular for its own good (take a look at web traffic to ZH, starting to get pretty frothy).

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:14 | 796712 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Yes to the professional trolls. There are a few of them. I don't usually feed them, but sometimes they provide the opportunity to also counter with your own message. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:59 | 796916 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Yep - they start out slow, then end up exposing themselves.

Not one person ever lays out a concise bull case - and it's so fucking easy. All we gotta do is figure out a way to power a global 5% CAGR. That means the avg Chinese & Indian living like any inner-city "poor" person in the USA.

If a miracle ever did arrive, I'd be the first out the door. Yeah, the would oligarch's survive, but it would be party time maximus.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:31 | 796506 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I was wondering why the market was up again. Will the NASDAQ go without a down day the whole month?

The financial picture in the usa is so rosy.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796526 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

once the financial picture in the USA looks rosy it will be totally priced in and you will have missed the move.  Most have missed this big move already, but there is probably still a little move left before the fireworks hit toward late January, then a pull back, consolidation and probably another move up, but my crystal balls only tells me one intermediate move at a time, so I will have to wait until the next downleg before rubbing my crystal balls again.   Once you think it is a good time to invest, most of the money has already been made.  You have to consider going long the spx whenever everyone else says you are an idiot.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:52 | 796631 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Which move? The 10-year SPY move to being flat? The move from SPY 1400? The move from Nasdaq 5000? Or the move from silver around $10 or even $18 earlier this year? I guess I'm confused... /s

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:32 | 796510 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Free Money. Inflationistas of the world rejoice! Inflate and create! WooHoo! Debt is for suckers. There is no such thing as debt, only current expenditures that have yet to be sourced in future payments. We can buy anything!!!!


Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:32 | 796511 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Harry thinks this is a good reason to buy Netflix.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:38 | 796555 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

tmosley did you see this? Its the official email Harry sent me from his company about the wild job openings...8 in total. Still no name of the company however.


Hello, We will be hiring at our Twin Cities facility located in Minneapolis at the end of Q1 2011. Right now we anticipate 8-12 new full time positions. If you are serious, I can give you a more detailed description of the jobs available. When I refer to adding "dozens of retail outlets", they are distributors who own their outlets. We sell to them. We've added retailers in Las Vegas, Seattle, Chicago and New York this Fall in addition to the current retailers. That impacts distribution and manufacturing on my end, hence the move to hire in Q1/Q2. HW

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:45 | 796584 Biggus Dickus Jr.
Biggus Dickus Jr.'s picture

Your point is well taken,  however we don't really need jobs to make money in the markets. We just need volatility.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:57 | 796651 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

How will the door to door whirl-a-way or whatever salesmen get past my guard dogs and 15 foot electric fence?


Sounds like a loser to me.


Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:01 | 796671 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I did see that.  I would like to see more detail before jumping to conclusions.  This is basically no information at all.

More than likely, they will have 10 or more applicants per position.  That has been my experience with hiring lately, though my last hire was about 5 months ago.  The quality of applicants is extraordinary now.  I actually found someone that I would feel comfortable giving my job to (so I can move up or move on, if I wanted to).  Too bad he is going to head off to Med school.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:48 | 796869 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

The only retail outlet I'd open in Vegas is a pawn shop

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:32 | 796512 DisparityFlux
DisparityFlux's picture

What's with those slackers in Ireland, this is how you create some real debt.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796528 sethco
sethco's picture

Reagan proved that deficits don't matter. Right?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:15 | 796721 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

You mean Tip O'Neil. Presidents do not control the budget, congress does.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796529 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Gotta keep that bubble primed...

DJIA to the moon Alice!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796532 sabra1
sabra1's picture

if you abolish medicaid, social security and unemploment benefits, then we can start to get ahead! no one would mind, would they?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:37 | 796545 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

As long as you abolish government, subsidies, taxes and bring all military home.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:58 | 796917 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

As long as you abolish roads, water systems, court houses.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:09 | 796965 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Just the ones paid for by government.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796533 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Meanwhile, Boner (new speaker of house) has offered to cut congressional budget by 5% or $30 million - saying it's a "you gotta start somewhere". Hahahahaha.

Oh and turbo timmay has a kidney stone - hope it doesn't hurt too much to pass it Timmay. /s

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796536 Bull v. Bear
Bull v. Bear's picture

This will go on until it can't, then it won't, that is all...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:27 | 796786 toathis
toathis's picture

nothing is coming buddy. Drop your shorts. Go long and hard.

The doom is over. A whole bunch of nothing is coming.

Bernanke singlehandely slammed the breaks on a CRUSHING deflationary collapse which might have claimed the lives of millions abroad and on us soil.

The history books have been written. BEN WAS RIGHT!

Austrian economics is wrong! It has now been proven

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:30 | 796804 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Do you get paid by the post?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:43 | 796855 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

That has to be one of the stupidest posts I have ever read and you have some serious competition from the other trolls. You make Biggus sound like a scholar. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:22 | 797016 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

You sir are a fucking genius.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:35 | 796541 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

So What, Debt doesnt matter as long as the market is rising!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:37 | 796543 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

In other words, we are now at a point that every dollar in receipt is matched by 1.3 dollars in incremental debt.

Yet people still think America by proxy of the US government will pay this debt.  The deficit matters, especially to the fungiblility of the dollar.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:39 | 796556 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

as well as the stinkability of the dollar.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:39 | 796562 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Dollar needs a wash.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:42 | 796571 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

The dollar needs gold.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:59 | 796665 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

A golden shower.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:03 | 796679 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Sean7!  I am surprised you would say that.  You need gold.  I need gold.  The dollar ought NOT be tied to gold.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:23 | 796762 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It is worth noting that if any FIAT went on a gold standard it would trip the wire...even and especially for a silver standard.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:30 | 796799 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Sorry DO, it's the only way to reign in the banksters. Gold standard with immediate specie exchange. It is proven, it works.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:59 | 796662 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The EU needed 3-4 trillion via swaplines over the last 2 plus years. Oil, Forex, Global trade all run on dollars, China, Russia, everyone will continue doing this every day. Getting more dollars through central banks for businesses in those countries. This is why the eu needed swap lines (4-trillion) banks on the wrong side of the dollar/euro.

The EU crisis has not stopped its in the early stages. This will continue going forward ...

The original bailout was shock and awe' once in a life time backstop. The eu is already in trouble ....

As Germany does better and better she will need a rate hike because of inflation but the pigs need low,low rates. Not good. So much for the great experiment ( the euro ).


Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders said the euro region could increase the size of its 750 billion-euro ($1 trillion) bailout fund, breaking ranks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy.


As China moves forward with her rate hikes, you will see commodities get monkeyhammered over time. (monday)

The numbers in shipping railcar/trucking has been moving up all year. This will continue moving forward, this will push the dollar higher as more good news comes forth.

Dollar = Up.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:03 | 796681 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I assume you have not had another avatar, and that you have been here for 16 weeks.  I think you should really know how I feel about FIAT, and especially the dollar.

The Doelarr:  A Legacy Unmatched:

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:09 | 796692 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I was on the old zero hedge.

Do you have any thoughts on what I posted ...?


The euro is going down and will push the dollar higher.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:24 | 796734 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


My thoughts...  Is Europe in trouble?  Yes.  Is the world in trouble?  Yes.  Why?  Because there exists a FIAT standard, one that is created out of nothing, and which is worth nothing.  For this farce to continue, the players must pretend these paper IOUs have some worth, but which FIATs will? 

The US government and America as private owes hundreds of trillions of dollars.  What is the collatoral?  Their bonds.  These bonds will never be paid, because the debt became too large.

Is Europe in the same situation?  Yes.  But Europe, because they are connected to the Eurasian landmass, will be able to still trade for NG and oil.  Th process of transporting NG to America lowers the EROEI to the point where it is not worth doing.  In the time of peak oil, the oceans that divided America will be its own failure.  This at least in the eyes of living standards. 

Cheap oil means cheap food.  Cheap food means a higher standard of living.  Rules change, and it is not written in stone that oil must trade for dollars.  Look no further than Russia and China who will no longer use the petro-dollar to deal oil with.  The dollar's time has come and gone, it matters little if the US government plays make believe.  It is only a matter of time before the gig is up.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:44 | 796818 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The individual countries can't adjust exchange rates. (EU).

The USA is sitting on tons of oil and natural gas. We have access to oil via our friends. The great lakes contain 20% of the worlds fresh water.

Do you think every other country gets dollars for free ? They need to buy oil, they need dollars, they want to do global trades/finance they will need dollars. We are the reserve currency to the world. The debt build up in dollars ( outside our borders ) is epic.

Everything else ... what if's.

When will this game change ... a big what if.

I noticed you are really bullish on the euro- And you also know a strong dollar is bad for gold, right. Even if you do not want this dollar going up because in your words its garbage if it does go up over the next 6-12 months that will not be good for gold/silver.


Also the EU thingy and the USA are totally different.

The USA can do whatever we want with our rates we are doing the two step with China.

The EU is caught in a box, Germany is the creditor nation, the pigs are in debt. A total mess. Under 1 exchange rate.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:46 | 796864 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

I agree with everything you said, unfortunately, except one: dollar will have no effect on gold or silver. They are the only legitimate currenies in the world and the world is beginning to realize it. 

The dollar can go wherever it wants, but the only thing holding down gold and silver is paper- and that will change as more people take possession.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:51 | 796879 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Well put it this way.


If things are really that bad then gold really cant go down.

I wonder why turd watches the dollar like a hawk ?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:02 | 796931 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Because Turd is aware of the problems associated with a paper market and excessive leverage in a commodity. If you are going to day trade commodities, it would would be suicidal to ignore the price of gold in dollars, euros or yen. 

That is not my point and you know this. The dollar may have any value in relation to other currencies and still have little REAL value. Being the most valuable worthless currency is nothing to brag about. 

Gold and silver would not becoming currencies in their own right, if the money substitutes we currently use were not being abused through pandemic credit creation. Without a tangible alternative and the presence of legal tender laws, Gresham's law prevails.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:14 | 796958 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Wait till monday after China's rate hike ( commodities are going to take a hit)

How big is the paper market for gold/silver?

Thats the key the best of the lot (EU the rest....We have all the leverage). We also are sitting on tons of real gold.


So it comes down to the armageddon trade..... Always does I guess. Some day this system will change, some day. .... But if things keep getting better around the globe as far as sales ect ... The floor will fall out from under this trade also as far as gold trading in dollars.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:33 | 796995 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Heck, the Chinese and other asians are sitting on triggers every time gold and silver hit resistance. Have you not been paying attention all week? Blythe couldn't take the market down, even in after hours. Now, with the 30 year problems- JP Morgan is getting desperate. 

The Asians are taking physical. Until the miners ramp up, the supplies are limited. China has a ton of overvalued real estate and the people are taking no chances. 

The dollar will take time to fade- all financial centers do, but that will not affect gold and silver. They will become the BEST money substitute.



We would have to agree sales are getting better. I would challenge that assertion. Sales in inflated currencies are not increases in production of real goods and services. You cannot include government in GDP as government is consumption only. The world's production is decreasing, while prices are inflated in currencies losing real value. Thus, gold and silver will continue to hold value.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:59 | 796913 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Concerning fresh water...wait no, not now....

America is NOT sitting on oil, oil production peaked in America while Tricky Dick was closing the gold window.  Ironic?  Is it ironic that Russia's production peaked in '89, the very same year the Commie Regime collapsed on top of itself?  No.  Peak oil production causes government collapse, it is as simple as that.

No one needs dollars, they need oil.  Whoever has the oil will dictate the terms, not the other way around.

I am not bullish on any fiat, but Euro vs DXY, yes Euro>DXY...for the time being at least.

A strong dollar is NOT bad for gold!  Gold has gained vs all paper assets this year, the dxy is flat.  In fact, gold saw its best run last summer, when the dollar was chasing it (gold).  DXY meltup=Gold melt up...I have been discussing this for months now, where have you been?

The US can NOT do whatever it wants with rates, if Bernanke raised rates the interest on the debt would crush the US' ability to pay back the debt.  Bernanke can and will never raise rates.  Didn't you know he was bluffing last week?

The EU is caught in a box, but that box is connected to Russia and the ME via land, which means they will have NG for the next several decades.  The US is out of luck.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:15 | 796922 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

More what if's .... what if this happens, this will happen ....

Check out turd blog- Hes watching the dollar like a hawk, book it.

Oil/dollar peg not changing today or next year or in ten.




The $60 billion in fighter jets and helicopters is the top-line amount requested by the Saudis, even though the kingdom is likely to commit initially to buying only about half that amount.

In a notification to Congress, expected to be submitted this week or next, the administration will authorize the Saudis to buy as many as 84 new F-15 fighters, upgrade 70 more, and purchase three types of helicopters—70 Apaches, 72 Black Hawks and 36 Little Birds, officials said.

The notification triggers a congressional review. Lawmakers could push for changes or seek to impose conditions, and potentially block the deal, though that is not expected.

On top of the $60 billion package of fighter jets and helicopters, U.S. officials are discussing a potential $30 billion package to upgrade Saudi Arabia's naval forces.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:47 | 797100 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The DXY is my hobby too.  I could nickle and dime that one all day.

As for what ifs, it is always best to consider all outcomes.  The dollar is not favored, despite what day traders say.  Reality trumps all.  The dollar is not real.

And the House of Saud peaked production last spring.  Don't you read the MSM?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:28 | 797237 trav7777
trav7777's picture

DXY will not affect the dollar versus commodities as much as you believe.  Forex rates between a declining euro and relative rise in USD don't dictate dollar price of commodities.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:20 | 796745 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Ben Bernank monetizes debt with every show of gain from the dollar.

As long as it stays 76-80 on the index Fraud St./DoC will be happy - Every ounce of strength above that will be squeezed to monetize toxic debt.

Back to you kemosabe

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:21 | 796751 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Quixotic not exotic?  hahaha...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:37 | 796833 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

As treasury rates move the dollar will climb also.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:19 | 797008 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Until it jeopardizes the dollars ability to make interest payments- then watch the money roaches scurry for the shadows. The dollar will fall hard, there will be suspensions of payments and possibly default. That would be the armageddon scenario you suggested? Yes? Let's hope not.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:37 | 796546 jahbless
jahbless's picture

In terms of recent ridiculousness, how does this news coupled with the POMO / QE Schedule for December rate in terms of escalation into lunacy?

That's a serious question for the heads on here.  What I'm trying to get at is are things accelerating?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:32 | 796809 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

No question they are accelerating.  It is the nature of exponential equations, or compound interest if you will.  Ever see one of those graphs?  Seems nice and flat at the beginning, and then, boom, it explodes upwards?  We are at that part.

If we don't default, we need to monetize, no other choice.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:04 | 796938 jahbless
jahbless's picture

ty for the perspective!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:26 | 797027 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

Greetings from the Most High!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:36 | 796547 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Why the hell do they need to 'concensus guestimate' the federal budget defecit? If Im wrong $2 Im fired! If a report has a word spelled wrong, Im up for review! And these guys can just guess how many BILLIONS theyll be off by? Wheres the fucking forensic accountants!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:37 | 796548 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

so what?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:37 | 796554 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Totally bullish.  Bigger deficits means more QE and more POMO.  Even the Apocalypse could make the market go up if the Fed was willing to goose it.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:51 | 796624 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Listen. My stock options are totally in the money. He better goose this beotch until I cash them out or I'mma be so pissed.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:42 | 796569 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Unexpected FED pump!

Buy the dip suckas...

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:43 | 796574 Stuart
Stuart's picture

With debt accumulating at this pace, The Fed and the Treasury will move heaven and earth to keep rates from moving up.   Only a few percentage points up from here and it really is game over folks.   These guys know it too. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:47 | 796581 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

Success? (sarc.)

And for everything else there is a ... fuck, I don't know what there is for anything else, anymore :)

There just isn't a place for the extra 40 - 80K in taxes in the budget of an average American family for the next 10 years. 

The end. 

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:46 | 796587 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

Fell off my fucking chair, Amerika has officially jumped the shark.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:47 | 796594 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

"better than expected"


Throw another $450B on the top of it once the "don't call it a stimulus plan" (Paul Ryan) is done.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:48 | 796599 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Only $150B? What a bunch of slackers.

$500B a month or GTFO.

Light it up you useless rookie fookers. We've got an empire we're trying to crumble here.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:48 | 796605 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Bonds tanking on the good news?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:49 | 796608 johny2
johny2's picture

the Fitch and co don't see anything to cause concern, so it must be ok.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:50 | 796618 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

1 million seconds = 11.5 days

1 Billion seconds = 31.7 years

1 Trillion seconds = 31,680 years


Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:53 | 796633 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

I don't understand: if POMO and QE cannot create inflation and bubbles, why doesn't the FED do trillions of it, instead of 600 billion? The bigger, the better, no? Why doesn't the FED send a $200,000 cheque to every American so they can fund their mortgage?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:10 | 796703 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

A: Foreign bond vigilants

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 15:57 | 796646 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Deficit? Thats nice..POMO

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:10 | 796702 mynhair
mynhair's picture

KFT reflecting reality? Down 1.35% on margin compression, no doubt.  Better buy before Berskanky juices it Monday.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:29 | 796795 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

The increase in receipts is just recycling - as outlays rise, so will receipts, since much of the outlays are transfer payments that are taxed.  It is the gap that is important, and that is growing, and is guaranteed to grow now that a) tax cuts and more spending are coming, and b) interest rates are rising.

There are only two solutions: debt default or debt monetization.  We have chosen door number 2.  Invest accordingly.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:46 | 796863 toathis
toathis's picture

debt is an illusion... who is going to come collect?

the zeros on Ben's computer can be wiped out as fast as they were put in, btw.

We can and WILL grow our way out of this.

Yeah, it sucks to be wrong and be upstaged by hot trophy wives on CNBS.

America won. No Great Depression 2.0, it here. not coming!

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:20 | 797009 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

What did America win?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 18:01 | 797160 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

He's either a troll or a psychopath. Either way there is little to be gained by attempting to engage him, I think.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 20:41 | 797587 Praetor
Praetor's picture

A one way ticket to poverty.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 17:57 | 797144 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

Let me guess ... you are squatting in your underwater house !

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 16:53 | 796888 MyKillK
MyKillK's picture

$150 billion * 12 = $1.8 Trillion FY 2011 deficit


Wasn't the white house projecting that the deficit would be heading back down to $1 trillion by this time?  About as much fail as their employment rate projections if the stimulus was passed.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 21:02 | 797655 delacroix
delacroix's picture

do we hit the debt ceiling, before christmas?

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 22:47 | 797905 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

There is no debt ceiling. Congress raises it at will.

Fri, 12/10/2010 - 22:51 | 797913 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

This chart sums up exactly what is wrong with the United States. You could run this chart for 30 years and it would be essentially the same. It's actually worse when you subtract Social Security receipts. Democrats will spend more. Republicans will not ask government to do less or eliminate a single agency or program. Libertarians cannot get elected. Only the Fed will act to rebalance the chart. They will use the monetary gun.

To me, this is why you hold metals or commodities long term. Stocks and bonds may come and go and you can certainly make money in them short term, but the long term is "game over" as far as I am concerned. Congress will NOT fix entitlements and will only use band aids on the year to year debt. The dollar must eventually fall for a covert bust or the Congress must settle for an overt bust in the near future.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 00:15 | 798072 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

In other words, we are now at a point that every dollar in receipts is matched by 1.3 dollars in incremental debt.

Soon, that ratio will be 1 to 2, then 1 to 4, then things start to get interesting...

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 06:00 | 798350 tom
tom's picture

What a lot of people are missing is that, adjusting for TARP one-offs, the deficit has been pretty steadily growing. The fy2010 deficit looked smaller than fy09 because fy09 included TARP outlays while fy10 was reduced by TARP recoveries. (Some TARP spending/recovery was accounted as investment/disposal, with only the profit/loss at disposal affecting the deficit, but a big part of TARP spending/recovery was accounted as outlay/income, ie initially adding to and later subtracting from the deficit.)

And with Obama's "more mush from the wimp" compromise with the Rs - cutting payroll taxes to excuse himself for not raising income taxes on the wealthy - the deficit's set to jump well past 10% of GDP.

Sat, 12/11/2010 - 10:38 | 798465 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

I for one am putting my cash on the sidelines until I see that U-3 goes to 35%. THEN, and only THEN into the markets. I've grasped technical analysis, learned fundamental analysis, but I am still learning Interventional Analysis. First rule to follow is the Shitty News Bullish Indicator. I'm learning by hard knocks. For instance. A week ago I shorted LPS. Whoulda thunk that on news of TWO class action suits, and an 8-K filing the same day, that the stock would actually GO UP? Stupid me. With only 2.8B in cap, and a key canary in the coalmine for MortgageGate, I should have known better. 

New rule of thumb: Go all in on bad news. 

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