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November Case-Shiller (Seasonally Unadjusted) Index Down -0.2% From October, Down -5.3% YoY

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/26/2010 09:24 -0500



After the double dip in now home sales and NAHB confidence, the unadjusted double dip in housing prices is following suit. Today's November Case-Shiller data showed that after having recorded several sequential increases in prices, November's -0.2% decline is substantiating the October -0.1% decline. The decline on a YoY basis was -5.3%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Composite 20 also indicated a moderation, as the sequential rate of increase declined from 0.3% to 0.2% in November, and indicated the same YoY decline as the unadjusted data of -5.3%.

Below is the index unadjusted data for the past several months, and the year ago month:

The same data on a MoM % change basis:

And as YoY % change:

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by Anonymous
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 09:41
#206333

By Bob Willis

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in November for the sixth consecutive month, signaling the industry that precipitated the worst recession since the 1930s is stabilizing.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index increased 0.2 percent from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.3 percent rise in October, the group said today in New York. The gauge was down 5.3 percent from November 2008, exceeding expectations and the smallest year-over-year decline in two years.

As home values stabilized and stocks climbed in the second and third quarters of 2009, households recovered almost $5 trillion of the record $17.5 trillion in wealth lost since 2007, showing there remained much ground to make up. A projected increase in foreclosures this year as unemployment is slow to drop may prevent prices from recovering much more.

Everything is good.....Bloomberg

by greased up deaf guy
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 16:11
#206777

"As home values stabilized and stocks climbed in the second and third quarters of 2009, households recovered almost $5 trillion of the record $17.5 trillion in wealth lost since 2007..."

it's EXTREMELY interesting to me how bloomberg equates gains in the stock market to an amount recovered by households, assuming home values stabilized (i.e., were flat).

by Eternal Student
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 09:42
#206334

Unbelieveable. Here I was, googling for a chart without success after the first news reports came out. None, absolutely none of the MSM outfits had one. ABCnews(!) had two articles. The first said "Housing index up", and 18 minutes later another ABCnews article said "Housing index down".

Silly me. I should have come to ZH first. Good job, folks.

by docj
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 09:55
#206339

On the upside, this year's federal budget deficit is estimated to be a mere $1.35T - according to some unnamed congress-critter's staffer.  Smell the HopenChange.

Doom.  Just... doom.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 10:30
#206354

docj - I cant even smell anything docj anymore !!! My nose is so clogged up from all the stench !!

by BigBagHolder
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 10:31
#206355

Uh... way to dig for a -.2% decline in a pretty good report.

YoY is the best in 2 years at -5% and up from -20% YoY at the lows.  Seasonally adjusted house prices up 6 consecutive months.

Houses will be flat-ish for a long-time.  Its not really an "asset", its an "expense".  But so what, big declines are over.  Foreclosures and losses are improving rapidly.  One can see this in all the bank numbers.

Steady recovery continues...

by Anonymous
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 10:34
#206360

Obvious troll is obvious.

Bitches.

by Eternal Student
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 12:56
#206422

Heh. And all the numbers were below Analyst Expectations, according to articles which now seem to have been pulled.

I guess you missed the link I posted yesterday. Here you go again.

The second wave:

http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/the-second-wave-too-big-to-fail-l...

And here are the most insightful comments that I've seen on Real Estate, CRE and the banks:

http://www.1913intel.com/2010/01/25/an-insiders-view-of-the-real-estate-...

Note that the estimate of 1000-2000 bank failures is in line with what Reggie Middleton calculated, independently.

But hey, if you really believe in steady recovery, then leverage yourself to the hilt and buy more Real Estate!

 

by BigBagHolder
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 10:51
#206375

Consumer Conf... best since Sept 2008.

Dig through the details and try to find a tiny negative item to headline.

I'll stay with the broad trend.  Last 2 times Cons Conf came out of deep troughs was 1983, 1993.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 11:02
#206388

And every good investor understands that past performance = future returns.

When did ZH start allowing second accounts, Leo?

by Mr Lennon Hendrix
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 11:36
#206426

New lotto game; play for a free house.  we could do 10,000 a day for three years!

by Mark Beck
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 12:57
#206519

I am not sure at this point, what significance the YOY data provides. However, the MOM change is a good focus.

The November number shows that even after massive liquidity programs the FED has been unable to prop up real estate prices. Is this external sign (main stream data) of deflation, enough for the FED to act? Perhaps not, maybe next month? Depending on the data. 

The real issue with a decline in price is, that any exposed banks will probably have to recognize this loss in some fashion in 2010. Increasing the risk of bankruptcy. We will see.

Mark Beck

by ghostfaceinvestah
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 16:47
#206812

Mark

You bring up good points.  After all the giveaways in the form of manipulating mortgage rates lower, tax breaks, artificial supply restraint from HAMP, and underpriced default insurance on FHA loans, house prices are starting to stagnate.

To keep house prices from declining from here will take even more giveaways, the most often talked about one being principal forgiveness (which will cost in the trillions, as not just currently delinquent borrowers will be looking for that handout).

Do we spend that money and raise debt to Japan levels, or do we let prices drop and face the unknown consequences of that?

No good choice either way. 

by greased up deaf guy
on Tue, 01/26/2010 - 16:06
#206767

"... as the sequential rate of increase declined..."

looks like the infamous second derivative that the bulls have been hanging their hats on is rolling over.

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