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Agreed. S+P 500 and gold both retreat to 875 short term. Gold first hit $875 in January 1980. I think it hits that again exactly 30 years later, in January 2010. Where does it go from there? If Congress puts the Federal Reserve out of business it goes to $100. If they let Banana Ben keep experimenting up in the lab I think it goes to $15,000.
I'll respond to your "gold goes to $100" comment as soon as I stop laughing.
Sir, without any offense, what does current gold price tell you which direction the Congress will take?
im looking for a 20% gold correction at 920 from 1150
-230.00 off the top and basing there for 1-2mo
You have one part right.
If they let Banana Ben (or any other central banking minions) keep experimenting up in the lab I think it goes to $15,000.
Put this in your gold pipe and smoke it on the ride down:
"This has been a speculative fund-driven futures rally," says Jon Nadler, a veteran analyst at Kitco Metals Inc. in Montreal. In other words, traders who play in the futures markets are betting on higher gold prices. But they aren’t interested in owning the actual metal."
We know how this ends...
Physical demand just needs time to adjust to the new normal of quadruple-digit gold prices.
If that is an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern in gold, then gold needs to go to at least $1300 to complete the pattern. The inverted head was at $700 and the shoulder-line was at $1000.
Other than being a crap 'pattern' to begin with, a H&S formation is distinctly reversal in nature ... H&S is NOT a continuation pattern !
Moreover, after rising over 400% in a decade while every other commodity/ asset class has crashed, there is no reversal (up) to speak of.
The End is Near
"as the risk asset melt-up courtesy of the ubiquitous dollar-funded carry trade runs dry of dollar liquidity"
Help me understand. How do we arrive at a "liquidity crisis"? What is the path the freshly printed dollars take? Do they go to equities and other speculative ventures, presumably on leveraged basis? At some point the free dollars are all committed into less liquid assets and therefore dollar liquidity begins to dry up? To acquire liquidity one must borrow or sell. Time to cash in the chips and move elsewhere. We cannot all cash in our chips at the same time, correct? What are market measures of adequate liquidity?
We know there are inaccessible pools of liquidity locked up inside the vaults of the banks, and, I'm guessing, not really available, not committed to loans or unborrowed lines of credit, but rather serving as transfusions for dollars still trapped inside toxic assets. How do "trapped" dollars help liquidity?
Gov't manipulation/PD involvement in markets for debt IOUs and equities have driven many investors away.
Municipal and federal debt cannot be adequately serviced now due to collapsing tax revenue and increased deficit spending. Sovereign debt auction, instead of being allowed to find an equilibrium interest rate are being gamed by the Fed who purchases any issue left wanting. This artificially suppresses the interest true investors would normally demand. The low interest supports the mortgage market and keeps RealEstate from abject collapse. But it also drives away the purchasers of US Debt. Unable to fund auctions means only option is printing.
Printing doesn't go unnoticed. Currency holders seek to flee dilutional money and paper fiat is debauched.
Since it is the unit of account which most transactions are initiated and settled in, whatever nominal return is to be gained must be weighed against loss in purchasing power of currency.
Fall in USDollar exceeds all interest enticements in debt auctions.
Stocks, Bonds, derivatives, commodity contracts are all experiencing purchase power volatility unacceptable to most investors. Prudent investors are expecting a currency collapse.
Fed will NOT raise rates to reward investment and preserve USD$. Monetization will incrementally ruin all USD$ holders.
Only precious metals will hold intrinsic value and restrain depredation by their natural scarcity and universal acceptance as alternative money.
Salted gold bars have defiled the assumed stockpiled supply within the gold market. Scarcity is even greater than expected therefore. Assaying quality will easily overcome whatever loss of confidence the counterfeits induced, but those short PMs must now compete to cover positions from an even scarcer pool of the commodity.
Add to this the fact that the USA liquid money supply approximates 1.5 trillion only, and that the foreign reserves of China exceed that by another 1/2 trillion. They are losing purchasing power through dollar devaluation, surpluses are waning, and the FED-Treasonry have passed salted tungsten bars. They have lost confidence in the currency, and feel betrayed by dishonesty in metals markets.
They can slowly dump their dollars into gold, the Primary Dealers who hold short positions against gold (and are henchmen for currency management by FED-Treasonry) will be forced to cover, or to default, or to blowup, or to suspend the markets. Either currency or the Gold market will explode. Chinese have shown they will honor derivative contracts on case-by-case basis and that also throws turmoil into markets.
Breakdown is imminent. Equities, Bonds, derivatives, currency. Unless China is completely suborned into the conspiracy which acts against their immediate interests, and unless that conspiracy is seamless and without revolt, there must be a currency crisis soon.
Nice write-up and I agree...but, you're a 19-year old student and you're already wearing a dress shirt and tie and you're studying, what, macroeconomics probably?
You're too young to be messing with this nonsense. This is the time of your life when you should be reading Walden Pond by Thoreau and Moby Dick by Melville and the poetry of Emily Dickinson, etc.
Save the bullshit stock market stuff for your 30's or 40's. You're only young once.
Financial "engineering"? Plus, that sounds like a pretty big portfolio for a 19-year-old. Family money? Genius? GS, JPM, or C employee?
For the last couple of months I have heared that statement from the bears(ironically,I became one just as the market was shifting gear back in FEB,and only because of disgst with the whole plan that I forsaw coming). But for some reason,those statements areasuming that we are in a fair market situation,and yet you read in the same blogs about all the fed intervention that is manipulating the market. The question then becomes:how can you asume that the bond market know better than equity market,while acknowledging that markets are manipulated(not necessarily this post,but general observation)?. Logic implies the following:If in most of those blogs that I frequent the basic asumption is that markets are manipulated and not fairly priced(which I also happen to buy in that asumption),then what follows is "nobody knows better than anybody". All buyers are blind and they are buying equities or bonds based on hopes and not real market information. The second asumprtion is:That markets are operating effecietly,and we simply know that this is not true because of what we know(and what we don't know,but suspect that it is taking place),so in that case we have to go back to the first asumption...
inquiring minds would like to know ....
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