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With Now Daily Margin Hikes In Silver, Is The SLV ETF Itself Next?
Following relentless margin hikes in silver on various exchanges, here are some thoughts on what may happen as the "regulators" do everything in their power to bring down commodity prices down as the broader population increasingly creates their own gold (and as the case may be silver) standard.
From Shortetflist
Could FINRA raise the margin requirement on the Silver ETF (NYSE: SLV)?
Absolutely.
After trading 200 MM shares per day, along with outpacing the daily
volume in the SPY, it is safe to say that the Silver ETF is leading the
futures at this point so here is the question I pose.
When is Finra going to raise the margin on the SLV ETF like it did on all the leveraged and inverse products a couple of years ago?
Right now to buy the SLV etf eats up about 22K in margin buying power, imagine if this were doubled?
FINRA and other folks are keenly aware of this trading vehicle,
particularly when an unhealthy market exists. Now if the Silver ETF
trading settles down to normal levels, probably not much will happen but
if it keeps this crazy pace up, it is very difficult to rule this out.
Just some food for thought on where this thing could go.
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help -- is the SLV etf going to tank???
I can tell by your comment that your money are belong to me now.
In Amerika you dont own SLV. SLV own you!
OT, everyone, but is The Bernanke really feeling the heat and wrath?:
05-03 12:10: Fed talking about exit strategy from QE2 according to CNBCMore jawboning to prop up the dollar, IMO. Watch what they do,
If that happens, kiss the stock market goodbye.
another lemming who got sucked in by the idiot pumpers...silver to 60 by "next week" buy buy buy buy...even with an RSI of 88, buy buy buy
I used to enjoy some of your posts, but now you're just a bitter asshole looking to hammer on those who disagree with you.
So when silver comes back up I'm sure you'll be there to congratulate the people who actually buy and hold long term?
No doubt Trav...
It's the otherway around with Trav777, ZH and its silver bugs are not being realistic....
yes, its fallen all the way back to when again? 10 years ago? 5 years ago? 2 years ago? 1 year ago? 6 months ago?
What is it, remind us again lol. I went on vacation for a month and just got back, what happened?
it fell all the way back to last weeks levels.... hahahahahahahahaha
+++
Too funny...
CLEARLY WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE BEAR MARKET.
have you never heard of CEF? do some homework................
vast-dom; yes.
Now I understand the old-timers pounding the desk the last ten years about owning physical.
That hyperbolic spike chart was there for everyone to see.
I expect it to fall to $32-34 for next support - just an educated guess.
John Hussman has been warning that this parabolic move would end.
(www.hussman.net)
Also significant, Eric Janszen (www.itulip.com) sold all his Silver last Friday. He's still holding gold as I understand.
I follow a momentum system on commodities and rode SLV from 33 to 47, got out along with Janszen last week.
yes Janszen bought silver at $4.50-ish and sold all at $48-ish for something like an 11x gain. His target for gold is $5000/oz. Guy's track record is excellent as he bailed completely in stocks in 2000 and went gold/cash/treasuries and rode it for a decade. is exciting treasuries and silver. Holding gold which he says is a much more larger position than he had in silver.
Thanks much I hadn't seen his gold price target or had forgotten it.
I like Hussman a lot. I respect any money manager who doesn't buy into the groupthink.
Just sell your silver and move to Gold - you will get better peace of mind.
looks like JPM pumped silver to $50 and are now dumping it. Gold unmoved
because giants(CB's who are buyers) will not allow shorting of Gold.
I could be wrong, but heard silver going to 20's
Yep. The people who sell massivly more silver than they have are going to drive it down to the 20's. Lots of good troll traffic through here. This would be a good place to set up a troll shop. You could sell june 40 35 and 30 troll puts and june 45 50 and 60 troll trap calls.
aahh. Now I am a troll heh ? Then you must be a JPM silver pumper.
Why do you think JPM removed all the silver shorts last year around oct 2010 - so that they can short it after pumping it.
Look at my posting here to see if I am a troll. Just convert your silver to Gold, that's all I say.
You obviously you don't know what JPM is doing by the sounds of it.
JPM a silver pumper? LMAO.
is your asshole hurting?
No, because I bought over ten years ago and haven't sold a thing.
You have trouble understanding "buy and hold" don't you?
LJS =owned
Huffing paint thinner will do that to you.
Newbie silver puke commencing in 3...2...1..
help -- is the SLV etf going to tank???
YES. You should seriously consider selling your SLV or buying puts to hedge it.
I'm not sure why everyone at ZeroHedge is so hostile towards you. Now you're proven right and everyone is even angrier with you!
????
You remind me of Gallileo and Copernicus, when they were persecuted for being RIGHT!
ROFL, yes, look how far silver has fallen, its all over. US debts have been paid off, all derivatives settled, all corporate, state and muni debt paid, budget balanced, interest rates are stable. the USD is going to SOAR.
SILVER HAS FALLEN
all the way back to...
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2011.gif
3 weeks ago...
i am getting tired of making Dangertime my btch, some other troll step up who wants to get slapped down, i welcome all challengers.
My big question for the members of this board. I'm about to pull the trigger on another purchase.
Just how far is this thing going to drop??? 38? 35? 33?
Methman : fuck off and don't bother. Your information is crap anyway.
It only costs five bucks to dig it out of the ground.
Met man you top ticked it dude!
Yeah he called the top, sell at, what was it.... $34 ?
If thats the top I guess you might wanna set down that huffing habit for a minute...
How much does it cost to bury you IN the ground?
I'd really wait until there's support. Right now, it's in a free fall. 50-day MA on the July futures is 39.65.
37.5 is a common level referenced, set buys there. Might not see that though, we dipped below 39 a lil ago and it came back up, its busy hitting its head on 39.75 now...
Now is a good time to add physical! Paper price is nicer and spreads will only get worse...
Celebrate!
You are getting to buy cheaper silver!
where are you silver bugs buying your silver from? APMEX? is there a better option?
I am not a silver bug.
I am more like a fair weather friend.
I always bought from golddealer.com
California Numismatics....best spreads i have found
free shipping and insurance.
gainesvillecoins.com
Low premium.
American Century sells bullion with a 1% mark up over spot. At least I know they sell gold like that, I think they sell silver.
I use Provident. APMEX is honest but higher ship & hand & premiums on ASEs.
I hear Gainsville is good too, but I have never used them.
Monarch is good for rough stuff and small lots. I have a 10 oz rough pour from them people like.
Buy on the dip... same advice all the time! LOSE MONEY!
All the silver bugs have been played...
Yes, I was played. I only made 70% in a few months.
Aren't you a big giant sucker. You willl be crying at the horrendous set up and sucker play. All the silver holders will fold and leave you hanging. You can't trust us.
U r da bomb!
I always look.for your posts
So you sold? Or waiting for it to go to 50%?
Yes, I sold. I still love the PMs on a fundamental level, but the chart looks very sick right now. I'll look to get back in if there's support around the 50-day MA.
Good luck getting back in.
Yes, up 120% in the last 12 months="played".
Does it feel like Jalopenos up your asshole creep ?
Your one-liner crap trolling is really getting tiresome, WilliamTheRightfullyNamedBastard.
But like chili farts, you'll keep coming back again and again, and just as stinky and unwelcome as ever, no matter what new troll handle you chose next time.
Damn jealous you missed the play of the last year. Fucking Noob.
Boo Hoo your dollar tells, the PM's, show your hand. Dollar loses reserve status. Monetize the debt. The dollar is the ho, and your the PAID pimp. You been owned so hard over and over, but since your paid, our fun can last ;) ...
Go buy physical. Starve the pigs where they shit and eat.
You could spit from here to 30
Tyler..., would you PLEASE, once and for all, for the love of God, give us an IGNORE button!
Such a thing would cure a host of ills. Why would anyone pay these bozos to spout drivel if no one read their posts. Why would the misfits who are working out their repressed anger over all those swirlies they got in high school continue their posting when they realized they were once again ignored...
SLV is looking pretty weak on the charts right now. Broke its 9-day yesterday. Just broke below the 20-day. Looks like the 50-day is the next target.
It is pretty bullshit that silver is being targeted like this. Why don't the exchanges raise margin requirement on an equity market that is up 100% over the past year?
Because equities don't threaten the ponzi scheme, they fuel it.
+1
It really is baffling the manipulation taking place right now. Since i am relatively young I have never seen anything like this. Any of you older gentlemen have insights or anything i can research in order to have a better understanding of just how historic this amount of margin hikes, institutional shorting, and administrational propogandizing is?
I don't want to over react but the way i feel is that this is unprecedented.
You're not alone and not overreacting.
I have clients that are very successful financially who are in their 60s, 70s and even 80s who all tell me this is a more strange time than they can ever recall during their lives.
They tell me that even when things were bad in the past, there was at least some light at the end of the tunnel, and true hope that things would improve, but not so this time.
They are worried like they've never been.
Read Jesse's blog. Best explanation. All the margineers are short physical silver so they are forcing the price down so as not to go bankrupt.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/05/cme-announces-third-margin-increase-for.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27513.html
Thanks for the responses. I have to remind myself everyday that it really is that bad.
cog. dissonance is a bitch.
Hey--don't talk about Cognitive Dissonance like that! I like him!
http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/cognitive-dissonance?page=1
:)
Mind you, the great blood-funnel-thrusting, facing sucking vampire squid---now that's a bitch.
heh, he's a great poster. I attempted to differentiate him from the term by abreviating it... limited success i suppose. I am unaware of any such entity know as "squid" nor would i be able to divulge any information pertaining to it if in fact there was.... "I'm not exposed to speak any such information to you, nor would I even if I had said information you want, at this juncture be able."
no disrespect CD.
>augie
...that this is unprecedented.
So were the Dinosaurs in the Tar Pits...
I'm glad i just order up some golf shoes... its imposible to walk in that muck... no footing at all...
It may break the 50.
It wont break the hundred unless the tea party takes an axe to government spending, or we see the greenshoots of deflation breaking out all over.
Can i buy american eagles made out of rare elements...thats the bomb!!
The U.S. Mint is coining The Bernank Silver Sheeple, a .999 fine Tungsten Alloy Round, with an electroplate coating of .0000000003 ounces of silver, with a likeness of The Bernank, with the words "I am not printing money" inscribed.
Act now, and it can be yours for the low price of $1.99.
*Coined in China.
Kinda?
http://www.rhodiumcoin.com/?gclid=CKucuOj4pKICFQG4sgodulWPyA
The way slv acts..no good.. feels exhausted..
ZSL bitchez.
My way to make up for missing out on silver doubling since december. Maybe i get my money back and you guys get to buy.cheap silver again.
We both win!
No QE3, inititally. Silver to 30. Most markets will start to tank. Sell some silver and buy a hole in the ground, very far in the ground, in the middle of nowhere, with food, water, bullet proof cover masked by dirt. That is the only way to play this fucker.
Silver is the enemy of the swine. They will a) change the rules or b) change the rules for the greater good. Did I say TWJCTR (they will just change the rules?).
Simple fact - margin requirements go up when volatility increases.
Silver volatility is increasing, so margins HAVE to increase. We are currently experiencing 10% inter-day moves - and that is enough to wipe out the entire margin requirement in some cases... the only way exchanges can protect themselves is by increasing the required balance.
And btw, we just broke the low from Sunday night.
Even the man on the street corner with the sign that reads "The end is near!" will eventually be right.
Still does not prove that you knew all this shit was going to happen.
You have been posting the same bs even back when silver was in the low $30's
And I've been putting my money where my mouth is.
I lost some money when my April puts expired, but I reloaded at much higher strikes.
My July SLV 40s are about to be in the money, followed soon by my 35s, 32s, 26s and 20s.
Praise jebus if your twenties go well into the money.
I will be backing up the dumptruck. I miss my eagles.
I promise to join a church and pray every week to Jesus if spot silver drops to the $20's. I will buy as much physical silver as I already have and double my hoard! Please plummet!
If spot is $20, premiums on physical will be 200% or higher.
That's the problem. I tried to buy the dip the other night, they just kept the premiums high so there really wasn't a dip. We need a good solid plunge to 30 or less so we can pick up some bulk physical. I'm tired of gold, too heavy and you can't eat it.
Thing is, any plunge like that will force retailers to raise their premiums or else they will just sell out, and they won't get as much product coming in.
This is why I felt safe, even in this plunging silver spot market, making a pledge that if physical .999 silver is ever available $35 or less, I will leave the board. At least until it is back up to $100, lol.
That is a lie but don't let that stop you.
And in case you need a visual aid:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Check the chart --- Silver is below 42.
We don't measure in charts. We measure silver in troy ounces and grams and weights and dimensions and sound it makes.
That seems weird.
You should measure silver by its ability to hold or increase in dollar value, compared to a myraid of other investment options.
Gunslinger, there is absolutely no such thing as "dollar value". There is dollar price, and then there is value --- the two are quite different things, and are not only not necessarily related to each other, but in the longer term and more meaningful analysis, are absolutely not correlated with each other, as the dollar continues to lose value.
Pay no attention to the currency crisis. No reason for the exchanges to require more dollars to purchase sound money...
The volatility spike came AFTER the margin manipualtion. Get a life.
Bullshit... I was buying silver put vol in the low 40s last month. Now it is in the 50s.
Why such the strong need to continually tell strangers what you are doing with your money?
Does it get you off?
Are you bitter because you didn't listen to me and sell or hedge your silver?
You still have time to get out. The sell off is just starting.
I have no experience with options, or even shorting, and shorting in this market seems very risky, as the mechanism of the price drop is artificial.
See http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/05/cme-announces-third-margin-increase-for.html
Is the analysis at the link incorrect?
No.
Have you ever seen this happen before?
This guys profile is offensive please ban this 12 year old by IP.
Christ, now we are going to get a bunch of IP ban requests over foolish things.
Tyler doesn't ban people for what they say, or for vulgarity, or for offensiveness, or for naked pictures. There is a chance that he will ban someone for participating in illegal behavior like cyberstalking, which is why I requested an IP ban for long juan silver.
I don't like banning people for their beliefs or their words, but trying to get someone fired is just despicable. Even if such attempts are in vain, since I am awesome at my job, and there is no-one who can do what I can do, or be quickly trained to do it.
I love those grande tetones
we want delivery of our product. we want delivery. we want our stuff. where is it? oh my......game set match?
quick question:
Right now to buy the SLV etf eats up about 22K in margin buying power, imagine if this were doubled?
is that 22K on 100K?
I am now the proud owner of 100 June $40 puts on SLV. I will sell 1/2 at $40 and 1/4 at $37 and will hold the rest, I think bottom will be between $35-$37 closer to $37. I gave my reason earlier. Still bullish but won't fight the mg, requirement increases, they are bigger than I
quick question:
Right now to buy the SLV etf eats up about 22K in margin buying power, imagine if this were doubled?
is that 22K on 100K?
According to the technicals I follow (Williiams %r and Aroon Oscillator mostly, with a little Keltner thrown in for diversification) SLV is headed to 50 in the near term.
I would appreciate all the help I can get from the "regulators" since I have no intention of selling anytime soon.
I've been waiting for the decoupling of paper and physical. They're just different markets. I don't see the CBs loosening their grip on PMs any time soon.
I want to know where that genius was for calling ME a contrarian indicator and bragging how he bought @ $49 and how stupid I was for selling.
most of us here at ZH understand fundamentals. that the US will have to print their way out of debt, or default.
killing of osama or daily raising of margin requirements hasn't changed that reality.
who fucking cares what you said or what he said? seriously...
Good raise margin on SLV to 100% -- kill that pig.
What percentage of SLV options ever result in true physical demand? Take the inverse and that's the probability of a margin hike on SLV or GLD options.
Called my local coin guy and was told the following...
Maples (20 left) - $47.40 - He normally has a ton
Eagles (Plenty) - $48.40
I called when spot was $43.40
Last week when I spoke with him he told me he hardly even had time to take lunch due to the amount of people coming into his store to buy.
Makes no sense that this shit is falling like a rock.
It makes perfect sense...if you're a kleptocrat sociopath sycophant.
Actually when he said that he could barely take lunch without people coming in to buy should have been your tell. When everyone is on once side of the trade, you usually know what happens next.
Really?!?!
Lot of selling of silver on BD's Nucleo. Some people are putting up large amounts to sell, not much on the buy side quantity wise. Gold on the hand seems to have more bids than asks.
It makes sense if the price of paper silver and physical silver are diverging. In that case, the COMEX price gets less relevant for physical holders. Quite simply they are messing with price discovery. Instead of COMEX, look at the buy price from major dealers or even on ebay. That is the real price, it's above spot, and the divergence is growing.
Every time the manipulation occurs, the COMEX price get more irrelevant, IMHO.
a story to add to your post. . .
at the weekend a friend bought a farm vehicle off craigslist, the price was negotiated part fiat scratch, part physical silver - and the 10oz bars were traded for $49oz, even though both parties agreed the comex price would be dropping.
I too believe "the divergence is growing" and eventually the traded paper "metals" will only have meaning to the algos, much as the $ only has value to those not paying attention.
price discovery, dudes.
Puke it out silver bugs, puke it out.
that i will. i'll be increasing my liberty as a free man through the purchase of more silver and gold with my green coupons.
Freedom can't be bought w/ a silver coin, soldier. If that were true, silver would be priceless.
There are too many instance to count where you're wrong. Freedom can be purchased but it's "transitory."
i was referring to being off the grid and being subject to dollar devaluation and hyperinflation. but thanks for the effort at coaching me on being wrong.
I think you replied to the wrong response. I am in the same camp...eating shoe leather and hoping for the blizzard to break.
sorry i got it wrong. i make a lot of mistakes.
Freedom is much more expensive. It requires a brain or incredible good luck or both.
it is priceless. mine's not for sale.
Put down the M1 Garand and do as you're told!
never been good at being told what to do. that's why i think and work for myself.
BLA BLA BLA BLA BLA
wish i had your gift of communication. i'll bet your staff really looks up to you as leader with your eloquence.
BLA BLA BLA BLA!
THE 200 day moving average is 27.50
Please god.
Do me this one tiny favor and i promise not to announce to texas gunslinger that i jizz on jesus even if gunslinger makes me mad, the fucking troll.
lick it up dog, lick it up.
Uh, false on the taking out of the Sunday low, but there is a concerted effort to get down to 42.2 or below.
And, as for margins increasing, this never happens with equities. Porquoi?
If you are talking Reg T long equity margin vs silver futures - implied leverage in futures is much higher and Reg T exists specifically to prevent a massive unwind like 1929. Also vol in commodities/silver has been vastly higher than equities so margin in higher vol contracts would need to be higher. There is some real logic to this, although obviously I wouldn't expect S&P futures margin to come into focus unless someone was beating the market down using them.
so the bad guys think they can scare me with their naked shorting. try again. the lower silver drops the more freedom for myself i'll buy.
So glad I don't own paper.
And not a peep out of raising margins on ES or other stock futures eh?
They are allowed to relentlessly go up of course
Moved paper Silver into Gold yesterday and today. Once we broke below 46. Look for support at 42-42.5 I think Gold will correct here too, but not nearly as much as Silver could. Bad Guys will stop at nothing, but the hole they are digging themselves is huge.
This is War, and I am already looking at levels to get back in, but no need for useless casualties.
Here we go again. Silver is crashing to 30, during May: (the chart is so old (March 13th) and bit off in timing, its already boring, but its still valid):
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
kudos to you. you foretold this at the peak even. Good for you.
if you were a chinese chap in charge of usa reserves would you be a buyer of silver with your green coupons? to ask the question is to know the answer.
Silver futures still getting crushed too. Down 6% to 43.23.
That noise you are hearing?
Producers stampeding to lock in prices.
Margin hikes will only strengthen the market by discouraging little speculators and letting the 'real players' bid. The little specs may consider buying physical metal which will accelerate the shortage.
I believe the SLV is used to soak up demand so I think it would hurt to not allow people to speculate in paper silver. If you are an owner of SLV ask yourself this? Why are you buying SLV if you can't collect actual silver from it? Doesn't that sound a little fishy to you? You think the banks are nicely stacking up all the silver that can't be redeemed? OF COURSE NOT. This SHOULD SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF YOU.
The custodian is JPMorgan Chase (JPM). It is responsible for holding the trust's physical silver in its vaults. The prospectus states that JPM:
Comparing PSLV and SLV, what to expect in terms of behaviour? They aren't constructed the same way exactly.
Seems to me that PSLV is being hammered unfairly based on Sprott's sale.
Additionally, with DXY puking, silver should be up. It's not.
That's called manipulation.
Bastards.
SLV - would not touch it with an 11 foot pole.