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With Now Daily Margin Hikes In Silver, Is The SLV ETF Itself Next?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following relentless margin hikes in silver on various exchanges, here are some thoughts on what may happen as the "regulators" do everything in their power to bring down commodity prices down as the broader population increasingly creates their own gold (and as the case may be silver) standard.

From Shortetflist

Could FINRA raise the margin requirement on the Silver ETF (NYSE: SLV)?

Absolutely.

After trading 200 MM shares per day, along with outpacing the daily
volume in the SPY, it is safe to say that the Silver ETF is leading the
futures at this point so here is the question I pose.

When is Finra going to raise the margin on the SLV ETF like it did on all the leveraged and inverse products a couple of years ago?

Right now to buy the SLV etf eats up about 22K in margin buying power,  imagine if this were doubled?

FINRA and other folks are keenly aware of this trading vehicle,
particularly when an unhealthy market exists.  Now if the Silver ETF
trading settles down to normal levels, probably not much will happen but
if it keeps this crazy pace up,  it is very difficult to rule this out.

Just some food for thought on where this thing could go.

 

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Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:48 | 1234619 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

help -- is the SLV etf going to tank???

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:54 | 1234628 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I can tell by your comment that your money are belong to me now.

In Amerika you dont own SLV. SLV own you!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:01 | 1234660 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

OT, everyone, but is The Bernanke really feeling the heat and wrath?:

05-03 12:10: Fed talking about exit strategy from QE2 according to CNBC
Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:05 | 1234692 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

More jawboning to prop up the dollar, IMO. Watch what they do,

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:23 | 1234774 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

If that happens, kiss the stock market goodbye. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:02 | 1234983 trav7777
trav7777's picture

another lemming who got sucked in by the idiot pumpers...silver to 60 by "next week" buy buy buy buy...even with an RSI of 88, buy buy buy

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:19 | 1235092 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I used to enjoy some of your posts, but now you're just a bitter asshole looking to hammer on those who disagree with you.

So when silver comes back up I'm sure you'll be there to congratulate the people who actually buy and hold long term?

No doubt Trav...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:48 | 1235246 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

It's the otherway around with Trav777, ZH and its silver bugs are not being realistic....  

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:28 | 1235441 eisley79
eisley79's picture

yes, its fallen all the way back to when again?  10 years ago? 5 years ago? 2 years ago? 1 year ago?  6 months ago?

What is it, remind us again lol.  I went on vacation for a month and just got back, what happened?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:10 | 1235600 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

it fell all the way back  to last weeks levels.... hahahahahahahahaha

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 18:01 | 1235941 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

+++

Too funny...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:12 | 1239693 LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

CLEARLY WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE BEAR MARKET.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:57 | 1234654 ruffian
ruffian's picture

have you never heard of CEF? do some homework................

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:06 | 1234702 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

vast-dom; yes.

Now I understand the old-timers pounding the desk the last ten years about owning physical.

That hyperbolic spike chart was there for everyone to see.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:14 | 1234727 HAL 9000
HAL 9000's picture

I expect it to fall to $32-34 for next support - just an educated guess.

John Hussman has been warning that this parabolic move would end.

(www.hussman.net)

Also significant, Eric Janszen (www.itulip.com) sold all his Silver last Friday. He's still holding gold as I understand. 

I follow a momentum system on commodities and rode SLV from 33 to 47, got out along with Janszen last week.

 

 

 

 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:26 | 1234790 20smoney
20smoney's picture

yes Janszen bought silver at $4.50-ish and sold all at $48-ish for something like an 11x gain.  His target for gold is $5000/oz.  Guy's track record is excellent as he bailed completely in stocks in 2000 and went gold/cash/treasuries and rode it for a decade.  is exciting treasuries and silver.  Holding gold which he says is a much more larger position than he had in silver.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:38 | 1236777 HAL 9000
HAL 9000's picture

Thanks much I hadn't seen his gold price target or had forgotten it. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:32 | 1234813 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

I like Hussman a lot.  I respect any money manager who doesn't buy into the groupthink.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:24 | 1234760 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

Just sell your silver and move to Gold - you will get better peace of mind.

looks like JPM pumped silver to $50 and are now dumping it. Gold unmoved

because giants(CB's who are buyers) will not allow shorting of Gold.

 

I could be wrong, but heard silver going to 20's

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:34 | 1234833 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Yep. The people who sell massivly more silver than they have are going to drive it down to the 20's. Lots of good troll traffic through here. This would be a good place to set up a troll shop. You could sell june 40 35 and 30 troll puts and june 45 50 and 60 troll trap calls.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:43 | 1234870 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

aahh. Now I am a troll heh ? Then you must be a JPM silver pumper.

Why do you think JPM removed all the silver shorts last year around oct 2010 - so that they can short it after pumping it.

Look at my posting here to see if I am a troll. Just convert your silver to Gold, that's all I say.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:24 | 1235110 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

You obviously you don't know what JPM is doing by the sounds of it.

JPM a silver pumper? LMAO.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:07 | 1235323 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

is your asshole hurting?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:24 | 1235406 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

No, because I bought over ten years ago and haven't sold a thing.

You have trouble understanding "buy and hold" don't you?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:18 | 1235625 eisley79
eisley79's picture

LJS =owned

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:18 | 1235627 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Huffing paint thinner will do that to you.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:36 | 1234838 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Newbie silver puke commencing in 3...2...1..

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:38 | 1234849 Math Man
Math Man's picture

help -- is the SLV etf going to tank???

 

YES.  You should seriously consider selling your SLV or buying puts to hedge it.

 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:35 | 1235458 Texas Gunslinger
Texas Gunslinger's picture

I'm not sure why everyone at ZeroHedge is so hostile towards you. Now you're proven right and everyone is even angrier with you!

????

You remind me of Gallileo and Copernicus, when they were persecuted for being RIGHT!

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:35 | 1235667 eisley79
eisley79's picture

ROFL, yes, look how far silver has fallen, its all over.  US debts have been paid off, all derivatives settled, all corporate, state and muni debt paid, budget balanced, interest rates are stable.  the USD is going to SOAR.

SILVER HAS FALLEN

all the way back to...

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2011.gif

3 weeks ago...

 

i am getting tired of making Dangertime my btch, some other troll step up who wants to get slapped down, i welcome all challengers.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:52 | 1234944 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

My big question for the members of this board.  I'm about to pull the trigger on another purchase.  

Just how far is this thing going to drop???  38? 35? 33?

Methman : fuck off and don't bother.  Your information is crap anyway.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:01 | 1234979 Math Man
Math Man's picture

It only costs five bucks to dig it out of the ground.

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:05 | 1235327 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Met man you top ticked it dude!

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:21 | 1239745 LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

Yeah he called the top, sell at, what was it.... $34 ?

If thats the top I guess you might wanna set down that huffing habit for a minute...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:08 | 1235589 akak
akak's picture

How much does it cost to bury you IN the ground?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:09 | 1235036 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

I'd really wait until there's support.  Right now, it's in a free fall.  50-day MA on the July futures is 39.65. 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:26 | 1239759 LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

37.5 is a common level referenced, set buys there. Might not see that though, we dipped below 39 a lil ago and it came back up, its busy hitting its head on 39.75 now...

Now is a good time to add physical! Paper price is nicer and spreads will only get worse...

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:48 | 1234622 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Celebrate!

You are getting to buy cheaper silver!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:26 | 1234791 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

where are you silver bugs buying your silver from?  APMEX?  is there a better option?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:30 | 1234822 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I am not a silver bug.

I am more like a fair weather friend.

I always bought from golddealer.com
California Numismatics....best spreads i have found
free shipping and insurance.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:13 | 1235357 espirit
espirit's picture

gainesvillecoins.com

Low premium.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:23 | 1235403 ATM
ATM's picture

American Century sells bullion with a 1% mark up over spot. At least I know they sell gold like that, I think they sell silver.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:55 | 1235539 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

I use Provident. APMEX is honest but higher ship & hand & premiums on ASEs.

I hear Gainsville is good too, but I have never used them.

Monarch is good for rough stuff and small lots. I have a 10 oz rough pour from them people like.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:09 | 1234624 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Buy on the dip...  same advice all the time!  LOSE MONEY!

 

All the silver bugs have been played...

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:33 | 1234821 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Yes, I was played.  I only made 70% in a few months.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:36 | 1234842 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Aren't you a big giant sucker. You willl be crying at the horrendous set up and sucker play. All the silver holders will fold and leave you hanging. You can't trust us.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:47 | 1234914 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

U r da bomb!

I always look.for your posts

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:34 | 1234843 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

So you sold?  Or waiting for it to go to 50%?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:49 | 1234909 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Yes, I sold.  I still love the PMs on a fundamental level, but the chart looks very sick right now.  I'll look to get back in if there's support around the 50-day MA. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:44 | 1235235 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Good luck getting back in.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:28 | 1235143 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, up 120% in the last 12 months="played".

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:07 | 1235329 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Does it feel like Jalopenos up your asshole creep ?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:11 | 1235596 akak
akak's picture

Your one-liner crap trolling is really getting tiresome, WilliamTheRightfullyNamedBastard.

But like chili farts, you'll keep coming back again and again, and just as stinky and unwelcome as ever, no matter what new troll handle you chose next time.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:32 | 1239778 LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

Damn jealous you missed the play of the last year. Fucking Noob.

Boo Hoo your dollar tells, the PM's, show your hand. Dollar loses reserve status. Monetize the debt. The dollar is the ho, and your the PAID pimp. You been owned so hard over and over, but since your paid, our fun can last ;)    ...

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:52 | 1234625 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Go buy physical.  Starve the pigs where they shit and eat.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:10 | 1235336 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

You could spit from here to 30

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 18:08 | 1235975 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Tyler..., would you PLEASE, once and for all, for the love of God, give us an IGNORE button!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 23:16 | 1236856 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Such a thing would cure a host of ills.  Why would anyone pay these bozos to spout drivel if no one read their posts.  Why would the misfits who are working out their repressed anger over all those swirlies they got in high school continue their posting when they realized they were once again ignored...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:50 | 1234630 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

SLV is looking pretty weak on the charts right now.  Broke its 9-day yesterday.  Just broke below the 20-day.  Looks like the 50-day is the next target.

It is pretty bullshit that silver is being targeted like this.  Why don't the exchanges raise margin requirement on an equity market that is up 100% over the past year?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:52 | 1234640 redpill
redpill's picture

Because equities don't threaten the ponzi scheme, they fuel it.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:00 | 1234657 augie
augie's picture

+1

 

It really is baffling the manipulation taking place right now. Since i am relatively young I have never seen anything like this. Any of you older gentlemen have insights or anything i can research in order to have a better understanding of just how historic this amount of margin hikes, institutional shorting, and administrational propogandizing is?

I don't want to over react but the way i feel is that this is unprecedented.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:01 | 1234670 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You're not alone and not overreacting.

I have clients that are very successful financially who are in their 60s, 70s and even 80s who all tell me this is a more strange time than they can ever recall during their lives.

They tell me that even when things were bad in the past, there was at least some light at the end of the tunnel, and true hope that things would improve, but not so this time.

They are worried like they've never been.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:31 | 1234824 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Read Jesse's blog. Best explanation. All the margineers are short physical silver so they are forcing the price down so as not to go bankrupt.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/05/cme-announces-third-margin-increase-for.html

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:21 | 1234776 augie
augie's picture

Thanks for the responses. I have to remind myself everyday that it really is that bad.

cog. dissonance is a bitch.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:37 | 1234864 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Hey--don't talk about Cognitive Dissonance like that!  I like him!

http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/cognitive-dissonance?page=1

:)

Mind you, the great blood-funnel-thrusting, facing sucking vampire squid---now that's a bitch.

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:04 | 1234992 augie
augie's picture

heh, he's a great poster. I attempted to differentiate him from the term by abreviating it... limited success i suppose. I am unaware of any such entity know as "squid" nor would i be able to divulge any information pertaining to it if in fact there was.... "I'm not exposed to speak any such information to you, nor would I even if I had said information you want, at this juncture be able."

 

no disrespect CD.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 18:09 | 1235960 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

>augie

...that this is unprecedented.

So were the Dinosaurs in the Tar Pits...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 08:30 | 1237476 augie
augie's picture

I'm glad i just order up some golf shoes... its imposible to walk in that muck... no footing at all...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:57 | 1234647 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

It may break the 50.

It wont break the hundred unless the tea party takes an axe to government spending, or we see the greenshoots of deflation breaking out all over.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:53 | 1234635 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Can i buy american eagles made out of rare elements...thats the bomb!!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:32 | 1234832 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The U.S. Mint is coining The Bernank Silver Sheeple, a .999 fine Tungsten Alloy Round, with an electroplate coating of .0000000003 ounces of silver, with a likeness of The Bernank, with the words "I am not printing money" inscribed.

Act now, and it can be yours for the low price of $1.99.

*Coined in China.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 12:55 | 1234642 The Axe
The Axe's picture

The way slv acts..no good.. feels exhausted..

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:01 | 1234658 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

ZSL bitchez.

My way to make up for missing out on silver doubling since december. Maybe i get my money back and you guys get to buy.cheap silver again.

We both win!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:01 | 1234663 6 String
6 String's picture

No QE3, inititally. Silver to 30. Most markets will start to tank. Sell some silver and buy a hole in the ground, very far in the ground, in the middle of nowhere, with food, water, bullet proof cover masked by dirt. That is the only way to play this fucker.

Silver is the enemy of the swine. They will a) change the rules or b) change the rules for the greater good. Did I say TWJCTR (they will just change the rules?).

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:02 | 1234665 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Simple fact - margin requirements go up when volatility increases.

Silver volatility is increasing, so margins HAVE to increase.  We are currently experiencing 10% inter-day moves - and that is enough to wipe out the entire margin requirement in some cases...    the only way exchanges can protect themselves is by increasing the required balance. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:02 | 1234675 Math Man
Math Man's picture

And btw, we just broke the low from Sunday night.

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:12 | 1234718 Temporis
Temporis's picture

Even the man on the street corner with the sign that reads "The end is near!" will eventually be right.

Still does not prove that you knew all this shit was going to happen.

You have been posting the same bs even back when silver was in the low $30's

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:14 | 1234735 Math Man
Math Man's picture

And I've been putting my money where my mouth is.

I lost some money when my April puts expired, but I reloaded at much higher strikes.

My July SLV 40s are about to be in the money, followed soon by my 35s, 32s, 26s and 20s.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:30 | 1234806 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Praise jebus if your twenties go well into the money.

I will be backing up the dumptruck. I miss my eagles.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:56 | 1234946 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

I promise to join a church and pray every week to Jesus if spot silver drops to the $20's. I will buy as much physical silver as I already have and double my hoard! Please plummet! 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:00 | 1235299 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If spot is $20, premiums on physical will be 200% or higher.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:00 | 1235560 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

That's the problem. I tried to buy the dip the other night, they just kept the premiums high so there really wasn't a dip. We need a good solid plunge to 30 or less so we can pick up some bulk physical. I'm tired of gold, too heavy and you can't eat it.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:22 | 1235637 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Thing is, any plunge like that will force retailers to raise their premiums or else they will just sell out, and they won't get as much product coming in.

This is why I felt safe, even in this plunging silver spot market, making a pledge that if physical .999 silver is ever available $35 or less, I will leave the board.  At least until it is back up to $100, lol.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:21 | 1234766 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

That is a lie but don't let that stop you.

And in case you need a visual aid:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:40 | 1234873 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Check the chart --- Silver is below 42.

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:45 | 1235243 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

We don't measure in charts. We measure silver in troy ounces and grams and weights and dimensions and sound it makes.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:44 | 1235495 Texas Gunslinger
Texas Gunslinger's picture

That seems weird.

You should measure silver by its ability to hold or increase in dollar value, compared to a myraid of other investment options.

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:28 | 1235649 akak
akak's picture

Gunslinger, there is absolutely no such thing as "dollar value".  There is dollar price, and then there is value --- the two are quite different things, and are not only not necessarily related to each other, but in the longer term and more meaningful analysis, are absolutely not correlated with each other, as the dollar continues to lose value.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:04 | 1234683 Blagio
Blagio's picture

Pay no attention to the currency crisis. No reason for the exchanges to require more dollars to purchase sound money...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:07 | 1234707 Wheatman
Wheatman's picture

The volatility spike  came AFTER the margin manipualtion. Get a life.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:13 | 1234719 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Bullshit...  I was buying silver put vol in the low 40s last month.  Now it is in the 50s.

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:44 | 1234880 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Why such the strong need to continually tell strangers what you are doing with your money?

Does it get you off?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:50 | 1234913 Math Man
Math Man's picture

Are you bitter because you didn't listen to me and sell or hedge your silver?

 

You still have time to get out.  The sell off is just starting.

 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:05 | 1235016 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

I have no experience with options, or even shorting, and shorting in this market seems very risky, as the mechanism of the price drop is artificial. 

See http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/05/cme-announces-third-margin-increase-for.html

Is the analysis at the link incorrect?

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:29 | 1235134 Math Man
Math Man's picture

No. 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:32 | 1235153 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Have you ever seen this happen before?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:23 | 1235114 longorshort
longorshort's picture

This guys profile is offensive please ban this 12 year old by IP.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:27 | 1235651 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Christ, now we are going to get a bunch of IP ban requests over foolish things.

Tyler doesn't ban people for what they say, or for vulgarity, or for offensiveness, or for naked pictures.  There is a chance that he will ban someone for participating in illegal behavior like cyberstalking, which is why I requested an IP ban for long juan silver.

I don't like banning people for their beliefs or their words, but trying to get someone fired is just despicable.  Even if such attempts are in vain, since I am awesome at my job, and there is no-one who can do what I can do, or be quickly trained to do it.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:41 | 1235224 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I love those grande tetones

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:03 | 1234669 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

we want delivery of our product. we want delivery. we want our stuff. where is it?  oh my......game set match?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:07 | 1234685 kflobonixs
kflobonixs's picture

quick question:

 

Right now to buy the SLV etf eats up about 22K in margin buying power,  imagine if this were doubled?

 

is that 22K on 100K? 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:04 | 1234686 fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

I am now the proud owner of 100 June $40 puts on SLV.  I will sell 1/2 at $40 and 1/4 at $37 and will hold the rest, I think bottom will be between $35-$37 closer to $37.  I gave my reason earlier.  Still bullish but won't fight the mg, requirement increases, they are bigger than I

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:04 | 1234687 kflobonixs
kflobonixs's picture

quick question:


Right now to buy the SLV etf eats up about 22K in margin buying power,  imagine if this were doubled?


is that 22K on 100K? 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:04 | 1234688 LONGdongSLV
LONGdongSLV's picture

According to the technicals I follow (Williiams %r and Aroon Oscillator mostly, with a little Keltner thrown in for diversification) SLV is headed to 50 in the near term. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:07 | 1234689 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

I would appreciate all the help I can get from the "regulators" since I have no intention of selling anytime soon.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:05 | 1234690 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I've been waiting for the decoupling of paper and physical. They're just different markets. I don't see the CBs loosening their grip on PMs any time soon.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:07 | 1234691 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I want to know where that genius was for calling ME a contrarian indicator and bragging how he bought @ $49 and how stupid I was for selling.

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:13 | 1235058 jomama
jomama's picture

most of us here at ZH understand fundamentals.  that the US will have to print their way out of debt, or default.

killing of osama or daily raising of margin requirements hasn't changed that reality.

who fucking cares what you said or what he said? seriously...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:08 | 1234695 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Good raise margin on SLV to 100% -- kill that pig.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:26 | 1235417 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

What percentage of SLV options ever result in true physical demand? Take the inverse and that's the probability of a margin hike on SLV or GLD options.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:08 | 1234698 Temporis
Temporis's picture

Called my local coin guy and was told the following...

Maples (20 left) - $47.40 - He normally has a ton

Eagles (Plenty) - $48.40

I called when spot was $43.40

Last week when I spoke with him he told me he hardly even had time to take lunch due to the amount of people coming into his store to buy.

Makes no sense that this shit is falling like a rock.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:18 | 1234751 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It makes perfect sense...if you're a kleptocrat sociopath sycophant.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:26 | 1234794 DrFever
DrFever's picture

Actually when he said that he could barely take lunch without people coming in to buy should have been your tell.  When everyone is on once side of the trade, you usually know what happens next.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:43 | 1234893 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Really?!?!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:20 | 1235376 I only kill chi...
I only kill chickens and wheat's picture

Lot of selling of silver on BD's Nucleo. Some people are putting up large amounts to sell, not much on the buy side quantity wise. Gold on the hand seems to have more bids than asks.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:54 | 1234957 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

It makes sense if the price of paper silver and physical silver are diverging.  In that case, the COMEX price gets less relevant for physical holders.  Quite simply they are messing with price discovery.  Instead of COMEX, look at the buy price from major dealers or even on ebay.  That is the real price, it's above spot, and the divergence is growing.

Every time the manipulation occurs, the COMEX price get more irrelevant, IMHO.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:37 | 1235202 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

a story to add to your post. . .

at the weekend a friend bought a farm vehicle off craigslist, the price was negotiated part fiat scratch, part physical silver - and the 10oz bars were traded for $49oz, even though both parties agreed the comex price would be dropping.

I too believe "the divergence is growing" and eventually the traded paper "metals" will only have meaning to the algos, much as the $ only has value to those not paying attention.

price discovery, dudes.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:09 | 1234704 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Puke it out silver bugs, puke it out.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:11 | 1234721 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

that i will. i'll be increasing my liberty as a free man through the purchase of more silver and gold with my green coupons.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:18 | 1234743 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Freedom can't be bought w/ a silver coin, soldier.  If that were true, silver would be priceless.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:19 | 1234758 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

There are too many instance to count where you're wrong.  Freedom can be purchased but it's "transitory."

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:23 | 1234778 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

i was referring to being off the grid and being subject to dollar devaluation and hyperinflation. but thanks for the effort at coaching me on being wrong.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:25 | 1234787 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I think you replied to the wrong response.  I am in the same camp...eating shoe leather and hoping for the blizzard to break.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:32 | 1234805 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

sorry i got it wrong. i make a lot of mistakes.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:20 | 1234763 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Freedom is much more expensive. It requires a brain or incredible good luck or both.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:21 | 1234765 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

it is priceless. mine's not for sale.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:23 | 1234775 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Put down the M1 Garand and do as you're told!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:25 | 1234784 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

never been good at being told what to do. that's why i think and work for myself.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:48 | 1234901 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

BLA BLA BLA BLA BLA

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:49 | 1234932 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

wish i had your gift of communication. i'll bet your staff really looks up to you as leader with your eloquence.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:34 | 1235167 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

BLA BLA BLA BLA!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:18 | 1234747 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

THE 200 day moving average is 27.50

Please god.

Do me this one tiny favor and i promise not to announce to texas gunslinger that i jizz on jesus even if gunslinger makes me mad, the fucking troll.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:41 | 1235210 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

Puke it out silver bugs, puke it out.

 

lick it up dog, lick it up.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:07 | 1234710 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Uh, false on the taking out of the Sunday low, but there is a concerted effort to get down to 42.2 or below.

And, as for margins increasing, this never happens with equities. Porquoi?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:31 | 1234825 Slim
Slim's picture

If you are talking Reg T long equity margin vs silver futures - implied leverage in futures is much higher and Reg T exists specifically to prevent a massive unwind like 1929.  Also vol in commodities/silver has been vastly higher than equities so margin in higher vol contracts would need to be higher.  There is some real logic to this, although obviously I wouldn't expect S&P futures margin to come into focus unless someone was beating the market down using them.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:16 | 1234730 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

so the bad guys think they can scare me with their naked shorting. try again. the lower silver drops the more freedom for myself i'll buy.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:16 | 1234736 fuu
fuu's picture

So glad I don't own paper.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:18 | 1234742 Racer
Racer's picture

And not a peep out of raising margins on ES or other stock futures eh?

They are allowed to relentlessly go up of course

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:21 | 1234749 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Moved paper Silver into Gold yesterday and today.  Once we broke below 46.  Look for support at 42-42.5  I think Gold will correct here too, but not nearly as much as Silver could.  Bad Guys will stop at nothing, but the hole they are digging themselves is huge.

This is War, and I am already looking at levels to get back in, but no need for useless casualties. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:19 | 1234752 ivars
ivars's picture

Here we go again. Silver is crashing to 30, during May: (the chart is so old (March 13th) and bit off in timing,  its already boring, but its still valid):

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:34 | 1234844 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

kudos to you. you foretold this at the peak even. Good for you.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:20 | 1234759 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

if you were a chinese chap in charge of usa reserves would you be a buyer of silver with your green coupons? to ask the question is to know the answer.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:18 | 1234762 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Silver futures still getting crushed too.  Down 6% to 43.23.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:24 | 1234781 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

That noise you are hearing?

Producers stampeding to lock in prices.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:20 | 1234770 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

Margin hikes will only strengthen the market by discouraging little speculators and letting the 'real players' bid. The little specs may consider buying physical metal which will accelerate the shortage.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:25 | 1234772 Gargamel
Gargamel's picture

I believe the SLV is used to soak up demand so I think it would hurt to not allow people to speculate in paper silver.    If you are an owner of SLV ask yourself this?   Why are you buying SLV if you can't collect actual silver from it?   Doesn't that sound a little fishy to you?   You think the banks are nicely stacking up all the silver that can't be redeemed?   OF COURSE NOT.  This SHOULD SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF YOU.


The custodian is JPMorgan Chase (JPM). It is responsible for holding the trust's physical silver in its vaults. The prospectus states that JPM:

Is responsible to the trustee [Bank of New York] only. Because the holders of iShares are not parties to the custodian agreement, their claims against the custodian may be limited.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:23 | 1234788 Fur Trader
Fur Trader's picture

Comparing PSLV and SLV, what to expect in terms of behaviour? They aren't constructed the same way exactly.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 13:46 | 1234908 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Seems to me that PSLV is being hammered unfairly based on Sprott's sale.

Additionally, with DXY puking, silver should be up.  It's not. 

That's called manipulation.

Bastards.

 

SLV - would not touch it with an 11 foot pole.

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