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Now That Jim O'Neill's BRICs Are A Dud, Here Comes Goldman's Next Straw Man: The N-11
Earlier we reported that Jim O'Neill has finally capitulated on his China uberalles prediction. Not a few hours pass, and Goldman is already back to spinning the great illusory strawman of the next growth "dynamo" - enter the N-11, or the "the ‘next 11’ emerging economies that—after the BRICs—have the potential to rival the G7 as a source of global demand and sustained growth." Because Goldman knows all too well that two wrongs make a much bigger right. As to which bottom dwellers are supposed to pull America and the insolvent developed world, prepare to be regaled with the following brilliant selection of N-11 participants: Bangladesh, Vietnam, Egypt, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines, Mexico, Turkey, Korea. Good luck with that Jim: we cant wait for the Non-Ch 11 200 next, or all the countries in the world that don't have a debt/GDP ratio of over 100%. We are sure that the entire world, ex the developed and BRIC countries, will pretty soon serve as the economic dynamo to push the world forward, and beyond the bankruptcy of your heretofore favorites. We promise that the bears you so enjoy taunting are rolling in fear at the N-11 onslaught.
From the report:
The N-11 economies vary significantly in terms of financial development. Hence, we have constructed a simple ‘financial development’ score, made up of seven financial indicators, which suggests a positive relation with income per capita. Vietnam and Egypt show high levels of financial development given their income per capita, whereas Mexico and Turkey (although financially more developed than the smaller N-11 economies) have the potential to become even stronger in terms of the size, depth and efficiency of their financial markets. There are important caveats to bear in mind when interpreting these results, in the form of the many country-specific factors that have contributed to where these economies find themselves today compared with their peers.
The N-11 have a great deal of potential, both collectively and individually. Their pace of development over the previous decades suggests that they are in a strong position to capitalise on both market-based and bank based systems of finance.
For all who have too much free time on their hands, and can't wait to get their hands on some hot Iranian assets (and no, no Geiger counter pun here), feel free to read the full report.
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cough!
At least they chose the right Korea.
If the Iranians can build their pipelines through to Pakistan, India and China (without US wars to block them) then they can expect large increases in growth through exports. Domestically Iran is very self-sufficient and even sanctions hurt it very little. Why do you think the west is so prepared to go to war with it??
The Iran - Pakistan pipeline is already going ahead (much to the chagrin of the US). I fully expect India to come on aboard later, once the initial phase has been completed(they were until the US pressured them against it). And China has also shown massive commitment to the pipeline, and will fund the Pakistani side of the project. It effectively wants the pipeline to be extended up through the Karakorams into the Xinjiang province. Feasible but expensive. But the China has plenty of money, might as well put some of those US dollars to work while they're still worth something.
Yes, that's partly why I revised my post - I certainly don't know enough to rule out a primary-production bonanza in Iran or Nigeria.
AHAHHAHAHAHHHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHA nuff said
Take your stinking paws off those poor countries, you damn dirty apes.
Off topic; my central bank contacts in Asia are telling me gold exports worldwide, with a few exceptions, notably S Africa and Oz, have dried up almost completely. Can anyone confirm/expand??
It would seem that in the current context of fx wars cross border M&A is also all but dead.
oh great, another set of emerging dupes Jim is going to market, inflate and then burst with his magical pin.
I think they had been talking about these for the past few years.
I can see Jim trying to put together a snappy name from EINBVPIPMIK
um shit lets just go with N 11
Unleaven
n also unleavening1. (Chemistry / Elements & Compounds) any substance that produces stagnation in markets and causes them to fall
3. an agency or influence that produces a gradual change for the worse vb (tr)
1. to cause stagnation in (markets or economies) 2. to pervade, causing a gradual change, esp with some moderating or destructive influence
WTF?! Bangladesh and Egypt versus China and India? What is next Lithuania, Nauru and Vatican City as world drivers?
They're not supposed to be rivals. They're merely places where growth is expected to rise (where internal development especially can be exploited).
And exploit is the key word, pump and then dump.
you are correct, I meant in regards to gross growth impact, very small indeed compared to the BRIC's impact on global growth.
Hey, not a bad idea. Vatican City has some serious assets.
How about San Marino?
Ya'll ever interviewed for a job at an investment bank? The fellow sitting across from you had a form to fill in. Probably 3 or 4 pages, his evaluation of you. One or so pages was an assesment your financial acumen. The rest had to deal with your "sales ability" and "creativity".
Well, la-de-fucking-dah. Go figure.
I think I'm understanding the process.....this article, and the one earlier today where Jim-bo capitulated on China, really means it's time to buy China and sell ANYTHING related to the N-11?
"It ain't nothing yet...".
Wait till he includes imaginary countries from star trek, harry potter and other mass media porn. (no pun intended.)
That include sec.go.tranny.gov?
"We delve deeper into these economies to
explore the relation between underlying
domestic financial market development and
income, and to assess whether the current
domestic financial architecture provides
adequate support to macro fundamentals in
the N-11 economies."
Ridiculous. When you delve deep into 80% of these countries, all you will find is corruption and graft.
If this is the best the world has to offer...then let me off.
I like Indonesia, lots of people there. The rest of this guys picks are a joke.
VISION 3000 o.O
Myanmar, bitches.
Kyat/Euro FX cross is smokin. Tourism is hoooooooooge. Just don't take a camera, or else you'll take a bullet. Those wacky fun-loving generals are tough but fair.
Bangladesh, Vietnam, Egypt, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines, Mexico, Turkey, Korea
Gads, apart from Turkey and Korea (and I hope they're referring to South Korea), the rest are low wage slave states, tho some of them are great places to visit.
All of these states share the common experience of unwanted/unnecessary American intervention in their recent pasts. Now it appears a signal for more GBH for America's "dates".
Oh well, I guess GS has to PR something, considering too many other places are down for the count already.
OT; but a must see [sorry if diverting the thread a bit]
LOL. I enjoy the progress of indoor plumbing and A/C, but it has brought a lot of "baggage", i.e. Goldman Sachs et al. Let's get rid of the debt and taxes and keep the rest.
Salute to 'Two Eagles', the spirit of Native Americans,
and to you CB for posting this.
That one made my day!
deserving a LOL, guess that means laugh out loud, damn good mate†
can't improve, ingrained, me brain.
N-11 my ass! What about Rwanda and Sudan? It should be the N-13!
Bangladesh... joke.
Vietnam... credible.
Egypt... joke.
Iran... soon-to-be-rubble.
Pakistan... soon-to-be-rubble.
Indonesia... credible.
Nigeria... joke.
Philippines... credible.
Mexico... credible.
Turkey... credible.
Korea... soon-to-be-rubble.
The N-11 includes five small-but-credible economies, three joke economies, and three economies that are more likely to regress back to the stone age.
We can fully expect the PIMTV strategy to score 3,486 consecutive profitable trading days for GS.
The BEPINK strategy seems more likely to score 3,487 consectutive profitable trading days for the CIA & Pentagon.
Just think how small these capital markets are. Kinda like the ES pumping, a little bit goes a long way. GS can start pumping and then as the retail suckers glom on, GS can sell to them. It's a self-reinforcing loop.
As with all Ponzi schemes,
first in, first out
gets the win, no doubt.
Mark my words, I don't say this easily.
Iran and Pakistan is where the US empire will die its final death. I'm 90% certain from all that's happening. If we assume the US is already dying from all that's happened, invading any of those two countries would be disastrous. Getting quagmired in these mountainous nations (backed by China and Russia) would be a death knell. Combined populations of 240 million people and that's not including outside help.
North Korea will not escalate into full war because there's no military or economic gains to be had. The only thing the US wants from the Korean peninsula is a status quo, a deadlock where the US can keep its bases.
Huh?!
"Iran and Pakistan is where the US empire will die its final death." says FourWude...
Why would we got to Pakistan, we can NOT! get out of Afganistan fast enough...
Iran?! Iranian oil? Yeah, Iran is on the to do list... the short to do list.
Need proof of WMD's?
You can add Chavez to the list as well...
Venezuela, Russia agree plans for nuclear power plant project - Chavez
http://en.rian.ru/world/20100403/158417699.html
Venezuela is one of the world’s largest exporters of crude oil and the largest in the Western Hemisphere. In 2008, the country was the eighth-largest net oil exporter in the world.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Venezuela/Background.html
· Venezuela's Oil-Based EconomyAuthors:
Cesar J. Alvarez
Stephanie Hanson
· Updated: February 9, 2009
o Introduction
o Venezuela's Economy under Chavez
o PDVSA
o Spending the Oil Money
o PDVSA's Production Levels and Fiscal Health
o Regional Ventures
o U.S.-Venezuela Oil Ties
http://www.cfr.org/publication/12089/#p4
Iran nuclear plant to start by August: Russian official
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100520/wl_mideast_afp/irannuclearpoliticsunrussia_20100520165722
According to Oil and Gas Journal, as of January 2010, Iran has an estimated 137.6 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, or roughly 10 percent of the world's total reserves.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Iran/Oil.html
Among the parties with a keen interest in the nuclear standoff between Iran and the UN Security Council are foreign investors. Iran is an energy bonanza (NYT) in their eyes: Its underdeveloped oil and gas fields, the world’s second largest, need outside expertise, capital, and technology.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/12661/irans_dire_oil_straits.html
"Why would we got to Pakistan(?)"
We are already there, in spades.
"...We can NOT! get out of Afganistan fast enough..."
Our president (and Pentagon) are escalating there, not retreating.
Our current course/policy is that of never-ending war in stone age ME countries... the US empire will indeed die there if US course/policy does not change. Do you see evidence of change? I see ZERO evidence of change... so draw your own conclusions...
Chavez is the monkey with the tin cup
Did you grow up under a tarp?
Fantastic, the last time I heard those countries being pumped was the Summer of 2008. Things look good for my shorts.
+1 Per CNBS, Vietnam was gonna be the bomb.
From what I've heard they are taking over the low end of cheap junk manufacturing from China, which is moving up the product spectrum anyway.
How Zimbabwe managed to miss this list is a mystery.
They had a better chance when per capita income was 9 million billion trillion Zimbabwe bucks.
Thanks to Israel's stupidity, many of the N-11 countries have just become far more dangerous places to invest.
Revulsion at the bloodshed on a Turkish vessel sailing to the Palestinian enclave could translate into increased fund-raising for transnational militant groups such as al Qaeda or like-minded allies, or foster tolerance or even sympathy for such groups among Muslims who are not otherwise ideological.
In some cases, it could push passive al Qaeda sympathizers into active participation against Israel or its Western allies, and undermine the international cooperation needed for tracking down illicit funding of militant groups, they said.
"For al Qaeda it doesn't get any better than this. It's really very dangerous," said Noman Benotman, a British-based Libyan analyst and a former associate of Osama bin Laden.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6512VD20100602
Could we stop propagating this all knowing, all seeing, everywhere at once Al-Qaeda myth. There were no Qaeda members on board any of the ships. And what Al-Qaeda is today is no more than a rag tag bunch of disparate, disunited groups that have no central command. They are far less a potent threat than the Taliban. Their numbers in Afghanistan are rumoured to be a few hundred if that. It's a myth.
And for those that still buy into it, remember the Al-Qaeda affiliated leader Abdol Malek Righi captured by Iranian and Pakistani forces in Fenruary 2010. Turned out his Jundullah group were aided and abetted by CIA and Mossad. He was paid to bomb mosques in Iran to destabilise it. Common Western Intelligence false flag tactics using splinter groups.
Could Goldman be right this time?
O'Neill ... what a hoax. Ridiculous that someone could earn so much money for contributing so little. I mean, hell, my 5 year old daughter comes up with acronyms all freaking day and she doesn't spend everyday reminding us she came up with one. Idiot with an inferiority complex. And the taunting of the bears as tyler rightly points out is so fucking infantile. But then what would you expect from a ManU supporter ......
The Vampire Squid is just talking its own book. That said, large numbers of impoverished, formerly colonized nations are finally getting their economic, political and cultural act together. Don't believe me? Here are the numbers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign_exchange_reserves
As far as the Squid's list goes, South Korea is a no-brainer -- it's already a highly developed industrial economy, an advanced semi-periphery about to join the core. Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia will do fine -- Vietnam has a feisty developmental state, Turkey is a rising semi-periphery, and President Yudhoyono's team has done an amazing job in turning around Indonesia. The other countries have enormous potential, but still need to construct developmental states (Iran is probably the closest, Mexico is still in the grip of neoliberal ideology, Nigeria needs to create sovereign wealth funds to harness its oil money, etc.).
I recall Andean Pamphlet by Gonzo!!! I thought his take on the BRIC's on silver platter was realistic.
My Master's thesis was a critical review of growth empirics and the convergence hypothesis. Danny Quah and Friedman talked about Galton's fallacy and reversion to the mean. The experts got it wrong, however. In the long-run, we're reverting back to Bangladesh's GDP per capita! LOL!
I sleep better at night knowing that Goldman Sachs thinks the N-11 will save the Earth. That analysis is really funny. My money is on the aliens -- ET type -- especially since I sold you all out for $1.98 cash money.
Is something looking bullish ?
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Pick some random world atlas, identify all countries in the 70-150 million inhabitants range, eliminate double entries with BRICs, and give them some fancy new buzz word-done. Great analysis.