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Nuclear Expert: "Fukushima Has 24 Hours To Avoid A Core Meltdown Scenario"
In an interview with Mark Hibbs, a Berlin-based senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a nonprofit think tank, Newsmax magazine asks - what happens next at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. The answer according to the nuclear expert, is that as Fukushima is now well on its way to a full core-melt nuclear accident, a worst case scenario could possibly lead to the same results last seen in 1986 Chernobyl.
Below we present a brief overview of the Fukushima plant from Wikipedia:
The Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant (Fukushima I NPP, 1F), often referred to as Fukushima Dai-ichi, is a nuclear power plant located in the town of Okuma in the Futaba District of Fukushima Prefecture. With six separate units located on site with a combined power of 4.7 GW, Fukushima I is one of the 25 largest nuclear power stations in the world. Fukushima I is the first nuclear plant to be constructed and run entirely by The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO).
Fukushima II Nuclear Power Plant, 11.5 kilometres (7.1 mi) to the south, is also run by TEPCO.
Unit Type First Criticality Electric Power Fukushima I - 1 BWR March 26, 1971 460 MW Fukushima I - 2 BWR July 18, 1974 784 MW Fukushima I - 3 BWR March 27, 1976 784 MW Fukushima I - 4 BWR October 12, 1978 784 MW Fukushima I - 5 BWR April 18, 1978 784 MW Fukushima I - 6 BWR October 24, 1979 1,100 MW Fukushima I - 7 (planned) ABWR October, 2013 1,380 MW Fukushima I - 8 (planned) ABWR October, 2014 1,380 MW
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Right on BOP, it's honestly like you died and went to heaven here. Weather between 60-90 all year round, exotic foods and beautiful women. On Oahu, but I'll be honest with you, slept through it all. The wife and neighbors stayed up all night, so if it was coming, they would have let me know. I left for work at 4:30 this morning, they're all still up. I go to the end of our street, which has a park and there are hundreds of people there, all probably from the tsunami zone, most partying, typical for Hawaii. We're about a mile inland and with the wall to wall developments they've built here, even if it hit, it would never reach. Aloha, HK.
My son said Santa Cruz was hit by waves - he said they missed Hawaii?
Not exactly...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91Wh0_yNJhc
I so miss Maui right now! Have fun!
I used to live in Lahaina. A tsunami would take out that town and many others in no time.
Here in San Diego, I'm up on a 100 foot cliff overlooking the ocean, so we felt pretty safe. The tsunami was supposed to hit at 8:45, but we didn't even see a wave big enough to get the sea gulls to move. Amazingly, several people were out surfing.
I'm in your hood. I'm worried about meltdowns, and prevailing winds.
I was in Louisiana post-Katrina and was able to go to quite a few places off-limits to the general public and press... and this has got to be about a million times worse. I really feel for those folks.
They've already had over 16 6.0 or greater in less than 24 hours.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
I am thinking , why are they so stupid to build virtually all their nuclear reactors on the shore line ?
The ocean is a good place to dump excess heat.
until it isn't
Could be lack of land. Could be because shit can happen anywhere, anytime.
Think of what a simple 6 foot tidal wave in the middle of GoM would do.
it's a small island, moron. this was a tsunami.
idiot.
winds blow west to east over the ocean in case she blows.
Not this time of year.
That's what I was thinking. See Mynhair below. It's not pretty.
What is the rotational speed of planet earth? Where does the sun rise?
1000 miles per hour. the circumference is 24,000 miles. Axis apart. Hence the 24 hour day.
My pacific northwest Radiation calls are spot on!
And here I was thinking, why are they so stupid to build nuclear reactors in an earthquake prone environment.
that's all I kept thinking today too. How exactly do we build this "energy alternative" on the west coast?
Don't they need access to huge volumes of water?
You ain't thinking, nukes need a large water source for cooling.
I hate being Shima, Fuk- U _ shima.
Wall street must have their fukuamerica fund somewhere.
Sodium. Ocean water is roughly 3% saline. Liquid sodium has a very high boiling point. The freezing temp of ocean water without friction is Roughly 29F.
This is good news for equities. Facilities destroyed will need to be recontructed, thus generating turnover for companies.
I heard radioactivity turn gold into lead, and silver into iron, better store them in the fall-out shelter ;)=
When did the japs ever buy gold?
This is good news for equities. Facilities destroyed will need to be recontructed, thus generating turnover for companies.
Nuclear Armageddon is taking the broken window fallacy a bit far, don't ya think?
Broken window fallacy much?
I hope they have plenty of potassium iodide.
and fluoridated watter ;)
I hope you and I have enough!
Mine are GI - 20 tablets, 65mg.
iostat 130 mg x14 pills po qd. Just bought another pack.
Doesn't TEVA manufacture generic chelating drugs?
Hmmm.....
http://www.danasview.net/chelate.htm
I would like to express my hope that the Japanese technicians and the people handing them their orders are more competent than the ones at Chernobyl. I emphasize that more towards the ones in charge than the technicians.
People may sacrifice their lives to save others tonight. God help them.
I agree. They are going to have to send people in. God help them, indeed.
No worries about competency vs Cernobyl's crews - they'll be highly trained, etc. Remember the Russkies were intent on covering up Chernobyl, not to mention poor funding for training, etc
so the Ruskies had an american style system?
touche... but I was just coming back to mia cupla - talkin' out my ass; yield to big Ben & Iam_Silverman further down
don't
silverman is an apologist for nukes, he works in the industry...
the safety/waste issues surrounding nukes aren't going away anytime soon, capiche?
"silverman is an apologist for nukes"
Nope, just an informed employee. Same as some of the posters here working in the financial industry - their economic safety/toxic waste portfolios aren't going away any time soon either.
Any time you need to generate large amounts of energy, you will cause harm to the environment. It's a tradeoff most of the public has already bought in to.
The safety/waste issue with nuke waste is resumed down to NIMBY and BANANA. i.e. it is entirely a politicaland/oremotional "issue", founded on ignorance. The engineering and science side of it are a piece of cake.
Goin short heavy water and doin it now!!!!
Go long gigantic mutated reptiles.
What a fucken jerk! and I had you in high esteem, for some time.
Phuckin is more cool.
Can't they just turn on some HFT computer to fix this timebomb.
Oh fuck, the true black swan.
True, dat. We'll know in about 72 hours what that means for all of us.
Shiver me timbers
Arrrr, Slewie the Pi-rat must be sailing his 4 mast schooner over to the area now! Once the frightened people evacuate from the event area he will move in and liberate all the gold from the hidden and not so hidden vaults of the hoarders.
Does anyone know if Japanese nuclear power plants are all of the same design as are the French plants?
Same design, different sauce. More of a light Bearnaise with just a hint of garlic.
Sauteed in a Light Water.
All French plants are now PWRs - they had a GCR programme in the sixties similiar to the Brits but discontinued these for a American design.
HAARP to get rid of competition to the FRN?
Hmmmmm
All they did was wait for a group of sympathetic vibrations in the area. Turn it on, boil one underground aquifer till the trapped steam becomes volatile, and voila, the harmonics become amplified creating big quakes.
Nice work.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html
Count:
OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
---
does japan default sooner?
Might as well repeat - forecast wind pattern:
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Wind/Forecast.aspx?region=chjap
Wind pattern indicates Tokyo will be a direct hit for fallout. 13 million people.
and spillover to Australia, but they are already mutated.
Refer: Aus bimbo on CNBS.
Hey Cat, we may have mutated but we have good friends in japan.
apparently an unfortunate tusanami washed ashore after a historically large earthquake somewhere.
Im told sea water through Cat/ komatsu diesels air intakes makes them cough black blood due to the compression ratio when they start automatically after power loss (Uninteruptable power supply or UPS- look it up). Eathquakes also have the uncanny ability to crack water delivery pipes.
Have you never had a radiator hose leak in a car. It tends to make them fail to proceed in a short distance.
so endith the lecture in cause and effect.
They have a hell of a task ahead of themselves and if they fail they will see it in all its glory
In "On the Beach" Australia was the last to experience fallout. I guess that's the difference between fact and fiction.
Shades of The Day After Tomorrow.
When it hits, whatever it is, you won't be with the ones you love.
More like Shute's "On the Beach".
Or is it beetch?
If you mean ann coulter, michelle malkin, or Rep Bachmann, well duh. Every day I wake up without them in my bed. Every day. Regardless of farflung earthquakes.
Looks like the shit is headed for Beverly Hills.
I just switched on Bloomberg. The anchor and some other guy being interviewed were discussing why the earthquake is bullish for the Japanese economy.
The stimulus spending on reconstruction presents a brilliant opportunity for everyone the buy the fucking dip, assuming the dip doesn't turn into an enormouse crack in the earth which then swallows said dip buyer up.
Revolution: Bullish, Earthquakes:Bullish, Nuclear meltdown: Bullish?
It is amazing how often the broken window fallacy is trotted out as fact.
I thought of that too. Nippon Glass would be a play. I did coincidentally just read an interview with a macro trader who put on the same trade after a Turkish earthquake and it paid. I wouldn't go anywhere near Japanese equities on the long side until things settle down (if they do).
The frequency of these disasters/macro events is reaching a ridiculous levels.
On the other hand, the policy implications in this country (and Japan, of course) are enormous. One party is dominated by Greenies, the other party by the Oil industry. We actually would be somewhat better off with a modernized nuclear program (some of our plants date back to the Fifties), but a dual meltdown could put the kibosh on energy modernization in this country for some time to come. This President and his Administration has shown no inclination towards pursuing a serious modernization program (despite what he said at the presser today).
The Saudis are laughing their asses off tonight. So are the Iranians. Oh, and so are the Oils.
Actually I was wondering about that earlier today but didn't have time to check ZH comments to see if anyone mentioned this "reverse black swan" - few months ago Hendry bought CDS on one Japanese steel company thinking their business would nosedive, but now it isn't impossible that they could profit big time from reconstruction spending (even though it will probably be financed by governmen debt).
I believe the term is "white swan" in Taleb speak.
With Bernacne behind the wheel of financial destruction, all is bullshit.. oops i mean bullish..
here's Margaret Brennan from this morning expressing surprise and concern that Bill Gross made it into the office today (she should go back to CNBS)
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67549852/
sounds about right. Ben may learn one thing or another from Japan. If QE2 fails, he may set of a few nukes in some mid-size city and stimulate the economy.
The area is in shambles. Many roads closed and bridges down. No power available. How in hell is anyone going to be able to do anything except sit back and listen for the boom. I think this one is a done deal.
good point. Helicopters?
They're going to need lots of bulldozers. CAT, DE
I thought it was CAT and DEER.
They have local stuff - Komatsu among others.
I don't know how big is Cat there.
Don't know what you're doing, but I was having some fun with DEER considering an article Tyler posted the other day about DEER and fraud.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deer-headlights-latest-alleged-chinese-reverse-merger-fraud
Cat is pretty big here, although not as much as Komatsu.
I have never seen Deere anywhere in Japan.
This is not the New Orleans you were looking for.
No, that was a chocolate event. This is more of an egg-drop event.
Teh awesome joke. Thank you very much
Say what you want, New Orleans was a third-world disaster. Pleasure craft and shrimpers. Some jazz hangouts.
Just about every running mile of the Japan coast is modern industrial. Chemicals, nuclear, petroleum, shipping, fishing. You can't run a boat aground without breaking something important.
I was watching the chemical plants burning and all the trucks and storage tanks floating along in the current, and my first thought was that the environment would never be the same. People might not be able to live in some of those communities any more for risk of exposure to God only knows what.
So your thinkin' The Bernank or Timmay is going to move there soon?
No, I dont think the horsemen of the apocalypse will ride out just yet.
We'll all be watching tonight. Amazing display of nature's power with the tsunami footage.
I feel bad for the Japanese. They were as prepared as anyone for this and was still devastating.
...and this for a country with a 200% debt-to-GDP. IMF to the rescue....??
They faced Gojira, and the Raymond Burr voiceover thereof. They'll face down this \.
"Electric Power Co. is reporting that they have lost control of the pressure in their No. 1 & 2 nuclear reactors with temps rising."
http://twitter.com/nbcnightlynews/status/46341708786569216
Americans are unbelievable!
First you incinerate two entire Japanese cities exterminating hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians; then pretend to get in a tizzy over a pathetic "radiation leak" or "meltdown" at a power plant.
Pathetic.
What's a little nuclear fallout among friends?
Well, actually we incinerated alot more then two cities, the non nuclear firebombings were equally destructive.
Unfortunately this was the result of an error in our foreign policy a few years earlier which led to our dispute with the Japanese, in retrospect it appears that we should have let them exterminate as many Chinese as they saw fit.
First, fuckhead, that wasn't this generation or really anyone left alive for the most part so don't lump me in there. Second, have you never commited and act then regretted the consequences? I would say that a lot of Americans are more sympathetic to the Japanese because we realize that what was done to them was wrong. I know they are all in my prayers tonight, God be with them.
Ermm no it wasnt, it was a much better option then many millions of dead from invading Japan.
Sure, there are some retarded people with guilt complexes who would have preferred that a previous generation sacrifice half a million men or more and kill several million civilians through more conventional means so they can feel morally superior today, but we are mostly looking at a few isolated groups of coastal urban moonbats.
I didn't say I was for having anyone occupy Japan, that war should have ended with an agreement to end hostilities if possible. I don't think you'll ever convince me we should have nuked civilians, nor that we should have sent soldiers on shore to fight it out up close and personal either.
I don't think the Japs would have hesitated to nuke U.S. civilians if the shoe was on the other foot.
Well, not to derail a thread about a current potentially tragic situation in favor of one from the past, but I think it unlikely that the 1.5 million+ Japanese soldiers in China would have given up without an invasion or the A bombs and their behavior there was often well beyond even what the Germans and Russians did to each other.
We had knocked the bejeezus out of the Japanese Navy but never did engage the bulk of their army at any point, it was still largely intact at the end of the war.
The Americans were also desperate to put an end to the war, before the Soviet Union could attack Japan.
"Americans are unbelievable!"
Let he who is without sin cast the first stone, fucktard.
What flag do you wrap yourself in?
(and another 'fuck you' for reducing me to vulgarisms such as 'fucktard'...fucktard.)
Non Romans hated Rome. Who cares what you think.
That is a bit of a stretch! I'll discuss history with you. Truman took office and made a decision. The Russians are and still will be our friends!
Mmmm Hmmm. Except we did nuke them, like 65 years ago. The shit going on now may be of no interest to some, but even more are disinterested in 65 years ago. A lot more.
Well, you can lay that at the feet of Teddy Roosevelt and 1905. Since no one is left who actually voted for TR, I'd say that is just part of history, which it appears, you are unfamiliar.
And voting actually made any difference then,too?
It is not a democracy, made of limited and shitty choices.
Today, just like the good ole days.
this is Karma payback from 'The Cove'
don't worry, the US Karma payback is our public education system
You mean we might get an "America Syndrome"?? Spooky movie in the making :-)
As I recall, the Chernobyl facility lacked a containment dome.
As I recall, the TMI accident was effetively due to incompetence.
Hopefully, they can quickly resolve any issues.
And was made of graphite, chemical formula "C", i.e. carbon, which burns like hell when atmospheric oxygen is able to reach it under conditions of high heat. The Jap reactor does not have either problem, neither lack of a secondary containement, nor presence of a flammable core material.
Chernobyl was a very dangerous type of reactor (graphite moderated, water cooled) and did not have a steel/concrete containment dome as all US power reactors are required to have. It was just located in an ordinary building.
Assuming the Japanese require similar containment structures as in the US (and it is hard to believe they would not), then the results of a core meltdown might be similar to the Three Mile Island accident in the US where the core melted, but only very minor amounts of radiation were released. The cleanup was pretty expensive, though.
The final autopsy on Three Mile Island showed only a minor breech in the core, not a full meltdown
Yes, TMI was only a partial meltdown. In the pressurized water reactors used in the US, the coolant is also the moderator, so the chain reaction automatically stops as soon as you lose coolant. But there is still enough heat generated by decaying fission products to melt the core if the heat cannot be removed.
In graphite-moderated, water cooled reactors like at Chernobyl, the cooling water absorbs neutrons and acts to hold back the chain reaction. And if you lose the cooling water, it is like suddenly yanking out all the control rods and the chain reaction rapidly builds. The resulting explosion blew through the buildings housing the reactor and there was nothing else to stop the radiation from spreading.
Is Hanoi Jane on site yet? How about Jack Lemmon's ghost?
Calling Col. Tibbets.
You seem knowledgeable wrt the physics involved. Yes, the ability to rapidly cool the core after a SCRAM is critical (no pun intended). One of my emergency response duties while serving onboard a nuclear-powered vessel in the US Navy was the attachment of the ship's fire hoses to a series of standpipes in the event of a loss of coolant. Thankfully, we never had to do it for real.
Maybe they'll call in the Americans to help them bury the radiation under the sand - like they did with the gulf oil...in a few days it won't be a story anymore.
Your mention of "not being a story anymore" makes me wonder what's going on in MENA today that we're not hearing about.
Don't forget, now that tsunami's can take out nuclear power plants, we can expects legions of regulators to go around shutting down other plants worldwide to "make sure they're safe", if not, then upgrades will be required to make them tsunami/earthquake proof. The plant owners will bitch and whine, then a tax will be levied to pay for the upgrades. Consequently, energy prices will rise. HAARP picks up were The Bernanke leaves off.
So maybe governments and citizens will realize how dangerous "clean energy" nuclear power plants can be if a "black swan" event came and irradiated an entire city for decades?
Short Uranium?
meanwhile in Haiti after 200,000+ dead and promises of billions in aid - they are still waitin, Cholera notwithstanding- I can't wait to see Andersen Cooper sporting a hazmat suit reporting from outside the Fuku reactor
http://www.denverpost.com/nationworld/ci_17070871?source=pkg
Why would anyone waste their time rebuilding Haiti? That place was a disaster before the earthquake. Benign neglect, I say.
yup, anyplace with a socially tolerated child slavery system (Restavek) can rot
I do have confidence in the Japanese dealing with this. Chernobyl is a bad example (first generation, difficult to control, uncontained reactor). I wish them the best.
Those graphite core designs were the worst. The absorbed energy was not fully understood back then. Hello, Hanford?
This doesn't sound good -- temperatures rising in reactor as of 6:15 EST:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/us-japan-quake-tepco-daini-idU...
Boy howdy, the speculation and misinformation here can be pretty entertaining at times.
I was an operator at a General Electric Boiling Water Reactor for many years. I am currently an operator at a Westinghouse PWR now. Unless this event was far, far beyond the design Bases for this plant, it will have emergency systems that are fully capable of safely shutting down the plant and maintaining it is Mode 5 (cold Shutdown) for at least 7 days. Granted, if the Emergency Diesel Generators were flooded they will have to rely on installed passive equipment for cooling down the reactor. The HPCI/RCIC turbines and a full torus (suppression pool) are capable of removing the decay heat generated after the unit trip. The primary containment (drywell) and secondary containment (reactor building) are designed to safely contain any system breach (L.O.C.A. - Loss Of Coolant Accident). The most severe accident that the systems are designed to battle are a LOCA and LOOP (Loss Of Offsite Power). Sounds like they may be there now, but the equipment is tested regularly for this exact scenario. The NSSS and ESF equipment are all designed to withstand the largest postulated seismic event for a 100 year period, plus a design margin. Since they had the BIG one about 140 years ago, they had a minimum baseline there.
As a note to those bashing the Chernobyl crew - they were actually the best and brightest that were available in the system. They had the best safety record, on-line performance, and they had the system matter experts at that very station. Two things caused the event - first and foremost, their containment design was very weak to non-existant, secondly, they were performing a special test to see how far they could push their system past its design specifications for a postulated emergency situation.
That design of reactor/containment system is no longer in use any where in the world today.
That German pundit is an ill-informed clown. If he wants to boost his credibility, I wouls suggest that he learn some basic "nukular lingo".
anyway, the market seemed to approve of the events, it closed up!
Hey, I spent last night at a Holiday Inn Express and I think you are full of shit. Plus, I don't think the guy is a kraut. He wasn't drinking beer or shoveling money to Greece.
"As a note to those bashing the Chernobyl crew - they were actually the best and brightest that were available in the system. They had the best safety record, on-line performance, and they had the system matter experts at that very station."...and the shit still blew sky high.
nukular energy
clean. safe. too cheap to meter....
Holiday Inn Express Meltdown
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dOHEw8izno
that's un-fukin-believable...[gag] and I'd say that before this event.... and the boyz that wrote the ad...? <awards>? geeze.... hope they sold some rooms (or not)
" a Berlin-based senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a nonprofit think tank"
I really don't see how you, an experienced nuclear technician, could possibly know more about this than a senior associate at a non-profit think tank.
"I really don't see how you, an experienced nuclear technician, could possibly know more about this than a senior associate at a non-profit think tank."
Because I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night? (in re cossacks comment above).
At least the guy I was talking to got the sarcasm.
The Japanese are already admitting the situation has exceeded engineered tolerances. They're now operating within the narrow band of implicit tolerances the engineers added wtihout telling anyone they were there.
After that, it falls down. 24 hours or one really hard aftershock seems about right.
"The Japanese are already admitting the situation has exceeded engineered tolerances."
"shit happens" -Captain Edward John Smith (1850-1912)
How can you speak so assuredly when you have no idea of the damage done by the tsunami itself to the control equipment you are certain will contain the problem? You have no idea how this plant reacted to both an 8.8 earthquake and a tsunami of at least 15 feet and possibly 30 feet.
No need to guess on either point; the Japanese engineers on the ground say the earthquake may have broken one or more containment structures and the tsunami totally knocked out the entire emergency backup system; backup power, pumps and backup coolant.
They are screwed beyond comprehension. I'll take a guess and say that everyone at that facility will die.
God help them.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/03/11/earthquake-japan-nuclear-r...
This article states that the emergency cooling systems are intact (and working). This means, assuming it is accurate, that the major source of radioactive material (the fuel rods themselves) will be adequately cooled to prevent any major release of radioactivity.
I think what that means is that the fuel rods are not without coolant. However the coolant apparently is not circulating (no power and/or structural damage) and the containment buildings are overheating. Steam pressure is building due to heat, and they are planning a controlled release of radioactive steam to try and keep the containment buildings from rupturing completely.
They barely have any control over these things. Their situation is extremely desperate.
Thank you for posting with some real information.
As a an ex-Navy and Civilian Nuc, I hate to see these "experts" (that have probably never been closer to a reactor than a protest march outside the fence) try to stir up fear based on few, or no, facts.
This is a serious accident but I suspect is probably within design criteria, as you say. There are many safety systems in modern reactors and, knowing very little at this point, I think fear mongering is unconscionable.
Even in the worst possible case, this will not be another Chernobyl as the reactor (and, I assume, the containment system) design is very different.
I saw something on Chernobyl on PBS one night and an American engineer I think, was allowed to visit the site with Russian engineers one day. They all donned Radiation suits and badges and went into what they called the sarcophagus. The basically buried the site under concrete. The entire area around this place is dead man's territory now, devoid of life. They said that they could only stay a short while inside the place , even with the suits on. It is still quite hot and will be for a very long time. I am positive most of the workers that worked there doing the concrete work have died already. I am sure many of the people that lived around that place also have died.
That was filmed a fear years back. BP now says it all clear and folks can now eat the wildmutan....err, wildlife.
Well I live on the gulf coast, and my Rebbe said I couldn't eat the shell fish around here. Oy veh !
Military bought some up for the troops:
http://www.infowars.com/u-s-military-purchases-unwanted-stigmatized-gulf...
Oy veh, indeed!
Oh come on boys. That stuff is good . Eat up.....